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I don't think the bolded is at all clear. Old post on this:
Their productivity was very close last season. Useless sample size so far this season, but it's still true that Nicks is averaging slightly more ppg (non-PPR).Now, it's valid to be concerned about Nicks getting hurt too frequently, and perhaps that is enough to cause some to prefer Cruz. But I don't think productivity is a justifiable reason.'Just Win Baby said:
It is Morris far and away for me. He's the most talented guy - I don't know that about Ridley.WAS coach doesn't have a history of going by committee - NE definitely has since Corey Dillon and the last 5 years especially.That's super brief because I dont have a lot of time...but Morris for me.
In 2008, Anquan Boldin averaged more targets per game than Larry Fitzgerald, and Wes Welker got more targets than Randy Moss. Targets are not always the best way to determine who is Batman and who is Robin. Coverages are a better way. In the games I see, NY's opponents give Nicks the Batman treatment. Like I said, Cruz is the kind of guy who feasts on breakdowns in coverage, while Nicks is the kind of guy who causes them. Anquan Boldin to Nicks's Larry Fitzgerald, if you will. I completely agree that one offense can support a pair of top 10 receivers. I've had Austin and Bryant in my top 10 at the same time. I've got Nicks and Cruz in my top 10 right now. I'm just saying, when you start getting into the top 5, things like this matter. I'm always talking about how talent wins out, so when you're dealing with three similarly productive players like Nicks, Harvin, and Cruz, seemingly fine distinctions such as these really matter.
Thanks for the stats, I don't recall looking at them with post season included. That said, these include 2 games in which Cruz did not start or get much playing time. Seeing as how productive Cruz is per start, that is a big deal.Cruz had 200 fewer snaps.
Great post
I have had to adjust my expectations for Cam - he is not making the strides that I expected him to as a passer, and the Panther offense as a whole has taken major steps back. But Cam is still very much a threat to score 10-15 rushing TDs a year. He is on pace for 10 right now, just missing on a couple others. He is still the major goal line option, and (I haven't looked at the numbers) I think he is taking an even bigger share of the goal line carries. 10 TDs would be huge for him, considering how often the offense has been down there. And it is too early in his career, and even season, to say those numbers aren't realistic for him. Every good NFL QB has improved on his rookie numbers. Going into his last game, he was on pace to, depsite the awful game against the Giants. If Cam's worst games are behind him, he will finish close to what he did last season. As for his regression last season - that just isn't true. He was a much better QB over the last half of the season, despite his passing totals dropping. He was more efficiant and the Panthers won more games because of it. He needs to get back to that, and improve on it.What we do both seem to agree on: long-term changes to our valuation or expectations are premature.He is having a bad start, with two awful games, on pace for 16 passing TDs, and 3,600 passing yards...and yet, is a QB1; top 6 going into last week. That says something.
Same guy he's always been. Obvious fantasy WR1 talent, equally obvious injury / off field risk. I own him in most of my leagues having bought at a discount last year after the injury in some, then at a HUGE discount after the recent arrest in a few more. I really don't weigh the off field stuff too much and sometimes injuries are just bad luck.
A big game or two? He played in 15 games in 2010 / 11 and put up 1064 / 12 -- as a 2nd & 3rd year guy in a run heavy system with crappy QBs he performed as a strong fantasy WR1. He's certainly a moron off the field, but he's just fine between the lines.
Agree with you here.I personally wouldn't want to own him long-term. Too much risk for me. That said, I do like his talent and would get him from an owner who thinks he is selling high. Then, look to deal him down the line at some point. Like you said, WR1 talent.
Very valid stance on him. The major injuries / multiple surgeries represent a big red flag.For some reason, though, a ton of people still call him a disappointment on the field though, which is just flat out wrong. Not even remotely arguable. You'd think that in this thread, at least, people would know enough to look at PPG. I guess the stupid that infects this place during the season is just uncontainable.
Harvin is more streamlined this year than last. You can tell by the film. He also told CBS game analyst Solomon Wilcots before Game 1 that he had dropped 8-10 pounds.
Cool. I don't do enough size judgments, trying to figure out who is "too big" and who is "too small" to be able to eyeball players and guess weights. I can tell the difference between tall and short, and between big and small, but anywhere in between and I'm lost. I can't tell if Harvin is "big", but I can tell he's big enough. Recent years have really changed my mind on ideal body sizes, anyway- guys like Spiller and Charles and Dunn and McFadden have had plenty of success. Plus, coaches are smart and have a much better idea of their players' limitations than we do. I looked at the data one year, taking the top 20 rbs in terms of ppg (minimum 8 games played), and sorting them by number of carries per game. Unexpectedly, the guys at the top of the list actually averaged slightly fewer missed games than the guys on the bottom. The effect held even when I removed any games from the sample where the RB left with an injury. My conclusion was that the most likely explanation is that coaches are only giving carries to players who are capable of handling them.
Haven't watched the Rams recently, so I can't comment on Givens specifically, but I can point out that the last two players who had phenomenal seasons based on record-breaking big play numbers were Chris Johnson and Desean Jackson. Their big play numbers have both since regressed, and their production has become much more ordinary. Guys go through stretches where they make ridiculous numbers of big plays (Lloyd, Tatum Bell, Victor Cruz, Mike Wallace), but the big plays eventually go dry, so there better be enough left to a player's game afterward if they want to remain relevant.
Regardless of what happens with his career, I'd say it's a good sign that he's been able to make so many big catches in so few opportunities. He was only a 4th round pick, so it's unlikely that whoever owns him in your leagues places a huge value on him. Might be a guy to target as a throw-in or for something modest like a 2nd round pick. I would gladly take a Lloyd/DeSean/Wallace/Cruz/Torrey Smith for that price.
Actually the number of opportunities is a bit of a red flag. His catch % is very low. It's often low for deep threats like Lloyd, Torrey, and Moore, but the stats are even worse for Givens. Bradford or the extreme nature of his utilization can be blamed too, but I haven't seen him catch a deep ball in traffic yet. And this was the main negative Waldman had on him pre-draft ("shy away from contact from a defender that would have been necessary for him to engage if he wanted to make the reception"). For comparison's sake, Moore might even be smaller, but he has bulldog in him. I own Givens a few times over so I'm not saying there's a lack of hope, but that the development time needed for him to be a consistent performer is long. Long enough I am willing to flip him as a throw in or something modest like a 2nd round pick. Given how many picks STL has devoted to WR and how little they have gotten out of those (and how that has affected Bradford's development), there seems to be a space in STL for someone like Jennings or Bowe to move into which could kill Givens' and Quick's value. Unless Bradford gets really good.
Thanks for this. Hope you come around a bit more; I really value your opinion.'thriftyrocker said:
He's...- a rookie'thriftyrocker said:
as good as Green? no way.Big stage for Demaryius Thomas tonight. I think he's as good as Green and Julio. Expecting a good show...
as good as Green? no way.Big stage for Demaryius Thomas tonight. I think he's as good as Green and Julio. Expecting a good show...
Green is averaging 104.7 yards per game.Thomas is averaging 101.0 yards per game. Green has an edge in hands and jump ball skills, but Thomas is a better athlete. Much bigger and stronger with insane agility for his size. I would say he's the new Marshall, but he has pull-away speed that Marshall never did. He's the closest thing to TO in the league right now, though their games are a little different.
GTFOas good as Green? no way.Big stage for Demaryius Thomas tonight. I think he's as good as Green and Julio. Expecting a good show...
He has Peyton throwing to him also. Draw your breaks mon.You guys are right. Thomas isn't as good as Green. He's actually better.Green - 628 yards on 67 targets (9.37 yards per target)Thomas - 513 yards on 46 targets (11.15 yards per target) Also has a slightly higher catch %.
That's right. And Green is catching passes from a 4-time league MVP with a credible wr2 drawing coverages, while Demaryius is stuck as the only real threat on one of the most historically inept franchises in history shagging balls from a second year QB. Which really just makes Thomas look even better by comparison.You guys are right. Thomas isn't as good as Green. He's actually better.
Well giving this some more thought. How many more seasons do you see Peyton playing at such a high level and therefore providing excellent opportunity for Thomas?I could see that window staying open for another year possibly 3. But having just watched Favre go from perhaps his best season in the league to really bad starter I know the wheels can fall off pretty quick also. So I wonder how Thomas would fare in that scenario which may be coming sooner than we might hope.Meh.Peyton is 36 and only averaging 7.6 YPA this season compared to 8.1 for Dalton. Gresham is better than Decker and Hawkins is better than Denver's third option. Overall, the situations are close to a wash. Nothing against Green, but Thomas is a star in his own right and that will become obvious soon if it isn't already. He has 1250 receiving yards in his last 12 games (including playoffs).
wdcrob already alluded to this, but...Go look at his second half 2011 numbers catching "passes" from the worst starter in the NFL. Thomas, like Marshall or Owens before him, is a situation-proof player who will excel with any clown in the league chucking him the rock.Well giving this some more thought. How many more seasons do you see Peyton playing at such a high level and therefore providing excellent opportunity for Thomas?I could see that window staying open for another year possibly 3. But having just watched Favre go from perhaps his best season in the league to really bad starter I know the wheels can fall off pretty quick also. So I wonder how Thomas would fare in that scenario which may be coming sooner than we might hope.Meh.Peyton is 36 and only averaging 7.6 YPA this season compared to 8.1 for Dalton. Gresham is better than Decker and Hawkins is better than Denver's third option. Overall, the situations are close to a wash. Nothing against Green, but Thomas is a star in his own right and that will become obvious soon if it isn't already. He has 1250 receiving yards in his last 12 games (including playoffs).
Your question assumes DT needs Peyton. I'd argue quite the opposite. Same with Tebow last year, as alluded to a few posts above. This guy's name translates to the worst pass offenses in the league. I only wonder what he'd do with a guy that chuck it.Well giving this some more thought. How many more seasons do you see Peyton playing at such a high level and therefore providing excellent opportunity for Thomas?Meh.Peyton is 36 and only averaging 7.6 YPA this season compared to 8.1 for Dalton. Gresham is better than Decker and Hawkins is better than Denver's third option. Overall, the situations are close to a wash. Nothing against Green, but Thomas is a star in his own right and that will become obvious soon if it isn't already. He has 1250 receiving yards in his last 12 games (including playoffs).
He wasn't worth more than those guys in March, he wasn't worth more than those guys in May, and he's not worth more than those guys now. [Except for Jenkins. He was worth the same as Jenkins in April, less in May, and more now.] He's flashing Devery Henderson upside. Which I'm sure is more than enough space to devote to Givens.The concern for Givens is a different than the concern I have for Wright. Givens did everything at WF but the jump in competition is limiting his role to 1 thing. His strength is legit enough he can do that 1 thing, but he hasn't shown anything else. The biggest question marks were strength and hands, and those are big holes right now. Wright also did everything at Baylor. What made him an elite prospect was downfield, and that has been a big 0 so far. He could dominate college competition for big plays, perhaps helped by RG3, but hasn't done that so far. He has made up with it with consistent PPR games.So maybe actually the concern is the same. The biggest combine concerns are reinforced, they are just different things. I am not ready to say Wright is a sell; Santonio didn't live on big plays either and that was more or less Wright's upside. But I think if someone views Wright as a buy high, I would give him up easily.
In 2011 Thomas's 2nd year in the league he did not play until after their bye and had 11 games he played catching 32 passes 551 yards and a very good 17.2 ypc 4TD. If Thomas had played the whole season at this same level he would have ended up with 47 catches. Not really enough for me to get very excited about.With Manning over the 1st 5 games this season Thomas has almost matched that total. He has 30 catches 505 yards 16.8 ypc 2TD. So it is looking like he is picking up from where he started near the end of last season. But the consistency I think at least partially is because of Manning. Coach Fox does not have a good track record with QBs so that does concern me some as well. I can see them focusing on the running game and defense more if they can to keep Peyton playing longer. If this is the direction of the team I see that limiting Thomas's opportunity. I agree with you as far as talent leads to more opportunity. I just have some concerns about the direction of the team moving forward and how Thomas fits into that.wdcrob already alluded to this, but...Go look at his second half 2011 numbers catching "passes" from the worst starter in the NFL. Thomas, like Marshall or Owens before him, is a situation-proof player who will excel with any clown in the league chucking him the rock.Well giving this some more thought. How many more seasons do you see Peyton playing at such a high level and therefore providing excellent opportunity for Thomas?I could see that window staying open for another year possibly 3. But having just watched Favre go from perhaps his best season in the league to really bad starter I know the wheels can fall off pretty quick also. So I wonder how Thomas would fare in that scenario which may be coming sooner than we might hope.Meh.Peyton is 36 and only averaging 7.6 YPA this season compared to 8.1 for Dalton. Gresham is better than Decker and Hawkins is better than Denver's third option. Overall, the situations are close to a wash. Nothing against Green, but Thomas is a star in his own right and that will become obvious soon if it isn't already. He has 1250 receiving yards in his last 12 games (including playoffs).
As a DAT owner, I'm good with this.
Where you put him in the top 5-6 is really a moot point, as many valid arguments can be made for many of the guys in that top tier. The point is, he is clearly a WR1 for dynasty purposes.ETA: I have no idea why I can almost never type the word "dynasty" correctly - I always reread a post and see "dynatsy" - wth is wrong with my fingers?
That's pretty similar to mine actually (moved for Green this summer now have Green/Fitz/Nicks/Britt/Cobb) and yes I know no one cares.It's a tough one. He's got a "worse" QB than Calvin, Julio and DT and is still producing. Then again he's the only show in town with regards to targets unlike DT and Julio. Then again that means he's facing tougher coverages.
Maybe it stems from not really getting to see AJ Green play a lot as opposed to watching Calvin almost every week. AJ is on fire though.
