Dynasty Rankings (4 Viewers)

[doowain]

I have a txt file on my computer with a list of 11 players that I would not trade in a dynasty league unless I was getting at least one player from the list back in return. The guys on that list are...AARON RODGERSCAM NEWTONROBERT GRIFFINANDREW LUCKTRENT RICHARDSONCALVIN JOHNSONDEMARYIUS THOMASJULIO JONESAJ GREENDEZ BRYANTJIMMY GRAHAM

I agree with much of this list. However, I think I value Aaron Hernandez over Graham. AHern was hurt earlier, but he's back now (15 points in first game back on limited snaps), and now Graham is out (don't know how long, but might balance year end scoring). AHern is 3 years younger, and he's almost unstoppable with the ball in his hands. Many NFL analysts say that AHern, along with Calvin and Harvin, are the most matchup proof weapons in the game. Many might disagree, but I have AHern > Graham, and my no.1 dynasty TE.

You aren't the only one. Hernandez is my #1 as well.

Graham is 6'7", Hernandez is 6'1". That matters in the red zone. Brees is 32, Brady is 35, if we are bringing age into, that matters. Why put Hernandez ahead of a more productive, still in his prime player? At TE, no less. And I love Hernandez and have nim #3, behind Gronk and Graham.

Splitting hairs. The top 3 are all special. It comes down to personal preference. Hernandez is also 3 years younger than Graham and is much more versatile.

 

[Concept Coop]

I have a txt file on my computer with a list of 11 players that I would not trade in a dynasty league unless I was getting at least one player from the list back in return. The guys on that list are...AARON RODGERSCAM NEWTONROBERT GRIFFINANDREW LUCKTRENT RICHARDSONCALVIN JOHNSONDEMARYIUS THOMASJULIO JONESAJ GREENDEZ BRYANTJIMMY GRAHAM

I agree with much of this list. However, I think I value Aaron Hernandez over Graham. AHern was hurt earlier, but he's back now (15 points in first game back on limited snaps), and now Graham is out (don't know how long, but might balance year end scoring). AHern is 3 years younger, and he's almost unstoppable with the ball in his hands. Many NFL analysts say that AHern, along with Calvin and Harvin, are the most matchup proof weapons in the game. Many might disagree, but I have AHern > Graham, and my no.1 dynasty TE.

You aren't the only one. Hernandez is my #1 as well.

Graham is 6'7", Hernandez is 6'1". That matters in the red zone. Brees is 32, Brady is 35, if we are bringing age into, that matters. Why put Hernandez ahead of a more productive, still in his prime player? At TE, no less. And I love Hernandez and have nim #3, behind Gronk and Graham.

Splitting hairs. The top 3 are all special. It comes down to personal preference. Hernandez is also 3 years younger than Graham and is much more versatile.

I can't agree that we are splitting hairs, until Hernandez is as productive as Graham or Gronkwoski. The red zone touchdowns that Gronk and Graham both provide are a bigger asset than Hernandez being "versatile" and lining up in more places. But I respect your call on him, and also think he is a special player. Like I mentioned above, I don't think the age is an issue yet, considering that Brady is 2.5 years older than Brees. What does that Patriot offnese look like without Tom Brady?

 

[Biabreakable]

Just upgraded from DeMarco to Trent, delighted to finally own him in one league.Answering a point made from the Dynasty trades thread it's not a reflection of my views on Murray, I really like him but the fact that Trent is so much younger and already looks to be a tier above meant I had to go for it. My team is strong and I genuinely didn't need the picks I gave.I actually offered more for the 1.01 at the time but was unsuccessful.Looking forward to enjoying the ride even if I may not see immediate production from him.

Assuming yours is the Murray+Dola+1st+1st deal:I personally have come around on it a bit. SSOG made a very important point, when suggesting that Richardson is a top 10 startup pick, and Murray is a 3rd-4th rounder. The value gap is bigger than my initial take, when put in that context. I am high on Murray, and won't get into it, becuase I have in this thread recently. But, "adding two first rounders, and an upside guy in Amendola, to get another young, foundation back" sounds like a bigger jump than "adding two firsts to move from the 3rd, to mid-1st in a startup."Honestly, I wouldn't make the deal, I don't think. But I get it.

I agree that is a pretty high price to pay. But as mentioned he offered more for the 1.01 pick, so Richardon/Cleveland struggles have reduced his price somewhat but in the end you would have likely paid more than that to be able to pry Peterson/MJD/Rice ect. away from an owner.Drop one of those 1st round picks to a 2nd and the deal looks a lot closer to me. That is sometimes what it takes to get a deal done. It helps to be in a position of strength so you can afford to overpay a bit.

 

[JFS171]

Couple questions for dicussion today...

1) Anyone actually trading FOR MJD? I think you'd have to take the approach that he may be out the rest of the season, and IF he comes back, that's gravy. His price probably never gets any lower, though, especially if he's currently on a contender's roster. Question is how many productive years does he have left? He turns 28 in March, and currently is sitting on 1570 career carries with another 292 receptions. Jags likely have Matt Barkley or Geno Smith playing QB next year, which certainly can't hurt the guy... Anyone buying?

2) Wanted to take the pulse of the thread on Josh Gordon.... I know he's got his own thread, but specifically for dynasty, are you guys believers? Is he going to be more than just a deep threat? What's up with the catch rate being so low? How do you guys see this guy reacting and adjusting once teams start gameplanning to stop him? I own him in my dynasty league, but I can't help but feel he's a bit of a sell high. Then again, I sold high on Alfred Morris earlier this year as well, and that one hurts.

Discuss amongst yourselves...

 

[jdoggydogg]

I have a txt file on my computer with a list of 11 players that I would not trade in a dynasty league unless I was getting at least one player from the list back in return. The guys on that list are...AARON RODGERSCAM NEWTONROBERT GRIFFINANDREW LUCKTRENT RICHARDSONCALVIN JOHNSONDEMARYIUS THOMASJULIO JONESAJ GREENDEZ BRYANTJIMMY GRAHAM

I agree with much of this list. However, I think I value Aaron Hernandez over Graham. AHern was hurt earlier, but he's back now (15 points in first game back on limited snaps), and now Graham is out (don't know how long, but might balance year end scoring). AHern is 3 years younger, and he's almost unstoppable with the ball in his hands. Many NFL analysts say that AHern, along with Calvin and Harvin, are the most matchup proof weapons in the game. Many might disagree, but I have AHern > Graham, and my no.1 dynasty TE.

You aren't the only one. Hernandez is my #1 as well.

Graham is 6'7", Hernandez is 6'1". That matters in the red zone. Brees is 32, Brady is 35, if we are bringing age into, that matters. Why put Hernandez ahead of a more productive, still in his prime player? At TE, no less. And I love Hernandez and have nim #3, behind Gronk and Graham.

Splitting hairs. The top 3 are all special. It comes down to personal preference. Hernandez is also 3 years younger than Graham and is much more versatile.

I can't agree that we are splitting hairs, until Hernandez is as productive as Graham or Gronkwoski. The red zone touchdowns that Gronk and Graham both provide are a bigger asset than Hernandez being "versatile" and lining up in more places. But I respect your call on him, and also think he is a special player. Like I mentioned above, I don't think the age is an issue yet, considering that Brady is 2.5 years older than Brees. What does that Patriot offnese look like without Tom Brady?

I own Hernandez and am very excited about his prospects. That said, until he has a season like Graham or Gronkowski has had, it's pure speculation. I know we dynasty owners tend to value youth over experience sometimes, and that can be a trap.

 

[SSOG]

Just for funsies:

1- Rodgers

2- Griffin

3- Newton

4- Brees

5- Ryan

6- Luck

7- Stafford

8- Roethlisberger

9- Brady

10- Eli

11- Peyton

12- Tannehill

13- Romo

14- Dalton

15- Vick

16- Flacco

17- Locker

18- Freeman

19- Ponder

20- Wilson

21- Schaub

22- Rivers

23- Cutler

24- Bradford

Have at it, Shark Pool.

 

[jdoggydogg]

Just for funsies:1- Rodgers2- Griffin3- Newton4- Brees5- Ryan6- Luck7- Stafford8- Roethlisberger9- Brady10- Eli11- Peyton12- Tannehill13- Romo14- Dalton15- Vick16- Flacco17- Locker18- Freeman19- Ponder20- Wilson21- Schaub22- Rivers23- Cutler24- BradfordHave at it, Shark Pool.

I could argue that Luck should be ranked over Ryan.Seems like Brandon Weeden should be in the conversation.

 

[az_prof]

Just for funsies:1- Rodgers2- Griffin3- Newton4- Brees5- Ryan6- Luck7- Stafford8- Roethlisberger9- Brady10- Eli11- Peyton12- Tannehill13- Romo14- Dalton15- Vick16- Flacco17- Locker18- Freeman19- Ponder20- Wilson21- Schaub22- Rivers23- Cutler24- BradfordHave at it, Shark Pool.

I am pretty much ok with this but wonder why Eli isn't higher?

 

[MAC_32]

#1 - Rodgers

#2 and #3 - RG3 and Luck

#4 and #5 - Brees and Ryan

After that it depends a bit on the team

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Just for funsies:1- Rodgers2- Griffin3- Newton4- Brees5- Ryan6- Luck7- Stafford8- Roethlisberger9- Brady10- Eli11- Peyton12- Tannehill13- Romo14- Dalton15- Vick16- Flacco17- Locker18- Freeman19- Ponder20- Wilson21- Schaub22- Rivers23- Cutler24- BradfordHave at it, Shark Pool.

I could argue that Luck should be ranked over Ryan.Seems like Brandon Weeden should be in the conversation.

28 year old rookie who is going through a regime change, Cleveland very well will have a top 5 pick.No thanks

 

[jdoggydogg]

Just for funsies:1- Rodgers2- Griffin3- Newton4- Brees5- Ryan6- Luck7- Stafford8- Roethlisberger9- Brady10- Eli11- Peyton12- Tannehill13- Romo14- Dalton15- Vick16- Flacco17- Locker18- Freeman19- Ponder20- Wilson21- Schaub22- Rivers23- Cutler24- BradfordHave at it, Shark Pool.

I could argue that Luck should be ranked over Ryan.Seems like Brandon Weeden should be in the conversation.

28 year old rookie who is going through a regime change, Cleveland very well will have a top 5 pick.No thanks

I'm no fan of Weeden, but look at the numbers. After a bad first game where Weeden threw for 118 yards, he's averaging 277 yards per game, and he's thrown for more yards than Ryan, Stafford, Roethlisberger, Luck, Romo, Vick, Griffin III, Rivers, Newton, and Cutler.I know Weeden doesn't have the pedigree. However, Cleveland is a team without a lot of talent at receiver, and Weeden's still putting up decent numbers.

 

[JFS171]

Rivers at 22 seems really low for me. He's got protection issues in spades, and a limited receiving corps, but he's not yet 32, has a resume full of production, and even in last year's "debacle" or a season, put up 4600+ yards and 27 TDs.

A lot can change in an offseason... improve his O-line, give him a real WR (Mike Wallace perhaps?) and he could easily bounce back to his old ways.

 

[MAC_32]

I think even Weeden's fans will have a hard time arguing for him over any of the 24 SSOG posted.

He's above the Cassel's and Gabbert's, but the debate on him is 28 vs. 25 - not top 24 imho.

 

[jdoggydogg]

I think even Weeden's fans will have a hard time arguing for him over any of the 24 SSOG posted.He's above the Cassel's and Gabbert's, but the debate on him is 28 vs. 25 - not top 24 imho.

I don't necessarily disagree. But this is a fantasy forum, not an NFL scouting forum, and Weeden's outperforming a lot of QBs that were drafted very early.

 

[jdoggydogg]

Rivers at 22 seems really low for me. He's got protection issues in spades, and a limited receiving corps, but he's not yet 32, has a resume full of production, and even in last year's "debacle" or a season, put up 4600+ yards and 27 TDs.A lot can change in an offseason... improve his O-line, give him a real WR (Mike Wallace perhaps?) and he could easily bounce back to his old ways.

I agree. Rivers should be ranked higher.That team needs an injection of talent at WR. $25.9 million contract for Robert Meachem?

 

[matttyl]

Just for funsies:1- Rodgers2- Griffin3- Newton4- Brees5- Ryan6- Luck7- Stafford8- Roethlisberger9- Brady10- Eli11- Peyton12- Tannehill13- Romo14- Dalton15- Vick16- Flacco17- Locker18- Freeman19- Ponder20- Wilson21- Schaub22- Rivers23- Cutler24- BradfordHave at it, Shark Pool.

Curious as to what size league this is for. Asking because I'm in a 10 team league, start 1 QB, and have Rodgers (but for this example having Brees would work, too). With that as your #1 option, would you want your #2 to be younger (Tanny, Dalton) over guys like Peyton or Ben, or really even Brady? As for the list, love where you have Tanny, Eli too low, Cam too high. I'd also be thinking about swapping Vick and Rivers.

 

[MAC_32]

I think even Weeden's fans will have a hard time arguing for him over any of the 24 SSOG posted.He's above the Cassel's and Gabbert's, but the debate on him is 28 vs. 25 - not top 24 imho.

I don't necessarily disagree. But this is a fantasy forum, not an NFL scouting forum, and Weeden's outperforming a lot of QBs that were drafted very early.

The only real strong defense he played was in week 1 and his numbers really are pretty awful. I don't believe in throwing out bad (or good) games, so just looking at the raw numbers he is 29th in comp%, last in INT's, 28th in YPA, and 2nd to last in QB rating. I don't like any of those stats as stand-alone's (I prefer the eye test approach personally) but put them all together and it paints a pretty accurate picture imho.

 

[Tau837]

Rivers at 22 seems really low for me. He's got protection issues in spades, and a limited receiving corps, but he's not yet 32, has a resume full of production, and even in last year's "debacle" or a season, put up 4600+ yards and 27 TDs.A lot can change in an offseason... improve his O-line, give him a real WR (Mike Wallace perhaps?) and he could easily bounce back to his old ways.

Was going to post something similar. He has played 6 full seasons and finished as follows (FBG scoring):2006: QB82007: QB152008: QB32009: QB72010: QB52011: QB9I expect Norv will be gone after this season, so there could be some concern about how that could affect Rivers. But he finished as QB8 for Marty in 2006. There is concern about his receivers, but he played with guys off the street in 2010 and finished as QB5.He is clearly off to his worst start this year, so I suppose this comes down to whether or not one thinks it is due to him entering a decline that will continue for the rest of his career or whether or not he can rebound. He is 30 (turning 31 in December), and we don't know of him suffering any significant injury since the playoffs a few years back.Guys that stick out to me who IMO should not be ranked above Rivers for dynasty purposes include Vick, Schaub, Romo, and Wilson (and I'm a huge Wilson fan). And I think many others come down to preference (e.g., how much does one weigh youth in their rankings).

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Rivers is only 30 right now. Based on his history you'd have to think he's got at least 3-4 good years left. I wouldn't quibble with anything between 10 and 14 or so, but 20+ is just too low IMO. If he doesn't blow up in the second half of the season and raise his purchase price I expect to be buying him this off-season where I need a better QB2.

 

[DexterDew]

Besides the personal preferrences we all have i think this is a great starting point to once again try to figure out where to rank the older QBs.

I admit that I thought Brady would be better this year (6th in PPG for a 4pt/Passing TD)) and at 35, how many years does he have left? And when you are in 6th in a 12 team league, it is not really much of a difference. He is at 22.8/game while the #12 Stafford is at 19.4/game... 3.4 points.

To his defense, Hernandez getting hurt, Gronk dinged and Lloyd a disappointment all hurt... but maybe they like Ridley more than I anticipated. What is going in Brady's favor is they are running a lot of plays. The "fast break" offense is averaging him 40 passes a game... take the Sea game out for being an outlier, and he is stil over 37 passes a game.

My Tiers:

Rodgers, RG3

Brees, Newton, Luck, Ryan, Stafford

Brady, Eli, Roth, Peyton

It gets really interesting after those 11. I liked Flacco, Romo, and Vick before the season... but it has been tough sledding for them.

 

[squistion]

Rivers at 22 seems really low for me. He's got protection issues in spades, and a limited receiving corps, but he's not yet 32, has a resume full of production, and even in last year's "debacle" or a season, put up 4600+ yards and 27 TDs.

A lot can change in an offseason... improve his O-line, give him a real WR (Mike Wallace perhaps?) and he could easily bounce back to his old ways.

At the very least it seems low for SSOG, who IIRC, was a Rivers fan a few years back

 

[jdoggydogg]

I think even Weeden's fans will have a hard time arguing for him over any of the 24 SSOG posted.He's above the Cassel's and Gabbert's, but the debate on him is 28 vs. 25 - not top 24 imho.

I don't necessarily disagree. But this is a fantasy forum, not an NFL scouting forum, and Weeden's outperforming a lot of QBs that were drafted very early.

The only real strong defense he played was in week 1 and his numbers really are pretty awful. I don't believe in throwing out bad (or good) games, so just looking at the raw numbers he is 29th in comp%, last in INT's, 28th in YPA, and 2nd to last in QB rating. I don't like any of those stats as stand-alone's (I prefer the eye test approach personally) but put them all together and it paints a pretty accurate picture imho.

All good points. I never thought I'd be here defending Weeden. Was just wondering if he should be included in the conversation.

 

[EBF]

Luck > Ryan

Ryan is not an elite QB. Good rookie year. Not much since then. YPA last four years: 7.4, 7.4, 6.5, 6.5. Flukey TDs and attempts inflating his stats this year. Definitely a sell right now. Numbers will drop when Gonzo and Toddy slide, and when ATL upgrades Turner.

Would also avoid Stafford/Locker and bump up Wilson.

 

[3optic]

I'd drop Newton below Luck at least. Eli up a couple spots as with Brady who has a couple more years with that offense one would think and what's the point of projecting anyone much past then? Brees has shown no signs of slowing down...

1- Rodgers

2- Griffin

3- Brees

4- Ryan

5- Brady

6- Luck

7- Eli

8- Stafford

9- Roethlisberger

10- Newton

 

[Concept Coop]

and what's the point of projecting anyone much past then?

My dynasty leagues aren't going to end in a couple years, hopefully. I don't play for the money, although it makes it a bit more interesting, so I am not worried about my leagues ending anytime soon. I play as though I'll be in them forever.

 

[Concept Coop]

I'd drop Newton below Luck at least. Eli up a couple spots as with Brady who has a couple more years with that offense one would think and what's the point of projecting anyone much past then? Brees has shown no signs of slowing down...1- Rodgers2- Griffin3- Brees 4- Ryan 5- Brady6- Luck7- Eli8- Stafford9- Roethlisberger10- Newton

There are 3 players who have a better season under their belt than Newton's rookie campaign. Only 1 player has done it twice, VBD wise. Newton is having a down year, compared to last, but it compares favorably to a few other QB's second season, including some on your list, and that is ignoring Newton's production on the ground. Based on upside alone, how can he be #10? He is having a very unproductive season through the air, based on NFL standards, and is still a QB1.

 

[SSOG]

I could argue that Luck should be ranked over Ryan.Seems like Brandon Weeden should be in the conversation.

You could argue it, and you'd have a very strong case. I wavered more on Luck vs Ryan than any other duo. Two weeks ago, I would have gone with Luck, and two weeks from now I might again, but Luck hasn't been as spectacular recently, and Ryan is essentially 5th in VBD to date. Weeden I'm not interested in. My QB ranks are heavily skewed towards upside since replacement level production is so cheap to acquire. Cleveland is a mess, and Weeden has looked poor while compiling strong counting stats on huge attempt totals. Plus, he's essentially the same age as Jay Cutler.

 

[SSOG]

I am pretty much ok with this but wonder why Eli isn't higher?

If I'm being honest, it's probably just irrational bias. Where would you put him?

 

[SSOG]

Rivers at 22 seems really low for me. He's got protection issues in spades, and a limited receiving corps, but he's not yet 32, has a resume full of production, and even in last year's "debacle" or a season, put up 4600+ yards and 27 TDs.A lot can change in an offseason... improve his O-line, give him a real WR (Mike Wallace perhaps?) and he could easily bounce back to his old ways.

I agree. Rivers should be ranked higher.That team needs an injection of talent at WR. $25.9 million contract for Robert Meachem?

Rivers is 31, which is not old at all if you're producing (Witness #4 Drew Brees), but is a problem if you're not. He's 4 years removed from his last elite fantasy finish, his team is trending downward, and he looks terrible. I'm officially abandoning ship.

 

[renesauz]

Just for funsies:1- Rodgers2- Griffin3- Newton4- Brees5- Ryan6- Luck7- Stafford8- Roethlisberger9- Brady10- Eli11- Peyton12- Tannehill13- Romo14- Dalton15- Vick16- Flacco17- Locker18- Freeman19- Ponder20- Wilson21- Schaub22- Rivers23- Cutler24- BradfordHave at it, Shark Pool.

I could argue that Luck should be ranked over Ryan.Seems like Brandon Weeden should be in the conversation.

28 year old rookie who is going through a regime change, Cleveland very well will have a top 5 pick.No thanks

Bad logic IMO, if you're willin to put 30+ year old QB's in the top 5 or even 10.We tend to get a great feel on QB's by the end of their second year starting, and they tend to be at their best in 4 years. Are 32 year old QB's significantly downgraded in your personal rankings? It's one thing to say you don't believe in his talent, or that he'll be a career fantasy QB2...that's fine. But he absolutely has a higher ceiling high enough to rank on a list like this, even if it's near the bottom of it. Weeden's age is a negative, but people act like it's a deal breaker, and that's just silly.

 

[SSOG]

Curious as to what size league this is for. Asking because I'm in a 10 team league, start 1 QB, and have Rodgers (but for this example having Brees would work, too). With that as your #1 option, would you want your #2 to be younger (Tanny, Dalton) over guys like Peyton or Ben, or really even Brady? As for the list, love where you have Tanny, Eli too low, Cam too high. I'd also be thinking about swapping Vick and Rivers.

League size shouldn't affect intrapositional rankings too much, although it'll strongly impact interpositional rankings.If your #1 is Brees or Rodgers, Peyton or Brady are essentially worthless to you. Points do nothing for you on your bench. I'd trade either of those guys for someone much younger ranked well below them if that was the best offer I could get. A lesser player that fits your team is more valuable than a better player that doesn't.

 

[renesauz]

I think even Weeden's fans will have a hard time arguing for him over any of the 24 SSOG posted.

He's above the Cassel's and Gabbert's, but the debate on him is 28 vs. 25 - not top 24 imho.

I like him over several guys on that list because, except in start 2 QB leagues, career fantasy backups have little value. If a guy doesn't have the HOPE of fantasy QB1 numbers, he's easily replaced/obtained in most leagues. With that in mind, rookies and second year guys who are already putting up backup caliber numbers (as Weeden is already) have a greater dynasty value IMO, because they still have that CHANCE at fantasy QB1 production if they progress.I know Weeden is 28, but it's not unusal for a late 1st round QB to put up fantasy QB1 numbers by their 3rd or 4th seasons....and guys putting up QB1 numbers at 32 still have significant value.

 

[SSOG]

Luck > RyanRyan is not an elite QB. Good rookie year. Not much since then. YPA last four years: 7.4, 7.4, 6.5, 6.5. Flukey TDs and attempts inflating his stats this year. Definitely a sell right now. Numbers will drop when Gonzo and Toddy slide, and when ATL upgrades Turner.Would also avoid Stafford/Locker and bump up Wilson.

You see fluky TD and attempt totals, I see a major offensive scheme change. And, as I said, it's impossible to ignore that he's currently top 5 in terms of overall VBD.

 

[SSOG]

Bad logic IMO, if you're willin to put 30+ year old QB's in the top 5 or even 10.We tend to get a great feel on QB's by the end of their second year starting, and they tend to be at their best in 4 years. Are 32 year old QB's significantly downgraded in your personal rankings? It's one thing to say you don't believe in his talent, or that he'll be a career fantasy QB2...that's fine. But he absolutely has a higher ceiling high enough to rank on a list like this, even if it's near the bottom of it. Weeden's age is a negative, but people act like it's a deal breaker, and that's just silly.

Here's the problem- are QBs finished products by their 4th-6th season, or are they finished products by age 28-30? If it's the latter, then what you see from Weeden is pretty much what you get. I'm willing to rank 30+ year old QBs in the top 10 if they are capable of putting up top 10 overall VBD scores. That's not a bet I'm willing to make on Weeden.

 

[renesauz]

Bad logic IMO, if you're willin to put 30+ year old QB's in the top 5 or even 10.We tend to get a great feel on QB's by the end of their second year starting, and they tend to be at their best in 4 years. Are 32 year old QB's significantly downgraded in your personal rankings? It's one thing to say you don't believe in his talent, or that he'll be a career fantasy QB2...that's fine. But he absolutely has a higher ceiling high enough to rank on a list like this, even if it's near the bottom of it. Weeden's age is a negative, but people act like it's a deal breaker, and that's just silly.

Here's the problem- are QBs finished products by their 4th-6th season, or are they finished products by age 28-30? If it's the latter, then what you see from Weeden is pretty much what you get. I'm willing to rank 30+ year old QBs in the top 10 if they are capable of putting up top 10 overall VBD scores. That's not a bet I'm willing to make on Weeden.

I've always thought a couple years experiance was more valuable than simple age as far as progression goes, but I doubt it's that simple. Weeden shows poise and maturity, he shows leadership...areas that QB's often need a couple of years seasoning in.But I don't think age/maturity can teach a QB to read an NFL defense...he'll still need at least a couple years to find his peak. If he was 25 instead of 28, where would you rank him? Wherever that is....I think that's at least CLOSE to where you should have him now. The rankings of rookie QBs are based not on their age/longevity, but on their POTENTIAL. The normal guy comes in at 24 and puts up those numbers with poise, he's top 20. If he doesn't progress in a couple years, he drops to the bottome end of the 20's in the rankings. If he progresses and puts up QB1 numbers...he gets ranked as such, and REMAINS ranked as such until either he regresses or he ages well into his 30's....he remains ranked as a QB until well after he's 30 at the least.We will know before he's 31 where Weeden truly belongs...he'll either climb higher or drop like a stone like every other comparable rookie (see Tannehill for a good example of someone comparable this year). RIght now, he's an easy buy for the savvy owner because he's being downgraded far too much for his age.

 

[SSOG]

Bad logic IMO, if you're willin to put 30+ year old QB's in the top 5 or even 10.We tend to get a great feel on QB's by the end of their second year starting, and they tend to be at their best in 4 years. Are 32 year old QB's significantly downgraded in your personal rankings? It's one thing to say you don't believe in his talent, or that he'll be a career fantasy QB2...that's fine. But he absolutely has a higher ceiling high enough to rank on a list like this, even if it's near the bottom of it. Weeden's age is a negative, but people act like it's a deal breaker, and that's just silly.

Here's the problem- are QBs finished products by their 4th-6th season, or are they finished products by age 28-30? If it's the latter, then what you see from Weeden is pretty much what you get. I'm willing to rank 30+ year old QBs in the top 10 if they are capable of putting up top 10 overall VBD scores. That's not a bet I'm willing to make on Weeden.

I've always thought a couple years experiance was more valuable than simple age as far as progression goes, but I doubt it's that simple. Weeden shows poise and maturity, he shows leadership...areas that QB's often need a couple of years seasoning in.But I don't think age/maturity can teach a QB to read an NFL defense...he'll still need at least a couple years to find his peak. If he was 25 instead of 28, where would you rank him? Wherever that is....I think that's at least CLOSE to where you should have him now. The rankings of rookie QBs are based not on their age/longevity, but on their POTENTIAL. The normal guy comes in at 24 and puts up those numbers with poise, he's top 20. If he doesn't progress in a couple years, he drops to the bottome end of the 20's in the rankings. If he progresses and puts up QB1 numbers...he gets ranked as such, and REMAINS ranked as such until either he regresses or he ages well into his 30's....he remains ranked as a QB until well after he's 30 at the least.We will know before he's 31 where Weeden truly belongs...he'll either climb higher or drop like a stone like every other comparable rookie (see Tannehill for a good example of someone comparable this year). RIght now, he's an easy buy for the savvy owner because he's being downgraded far too much for his age.

I'm a big believer that, while age and experience are both factors, age is the bigger factor. For everyone from mathematicians to hitters in baseball, late 20s to early 30s tends to be the peak. I just don't believe Weeden has much room to grow beyond what he is right now... and what he is right now is terrible. Plus, Weeden gets bonus demerits for playing for such an inept franchise. I don't expect much in the way of stability or surrounding talent through his career. The guy who drafted him is already gone, so you can't even count on loyalty from the regime. I think he belongs with the Blaine Gabberts and Alex Smiths of the world.Edit: in terms of rookie QBs, Weeden doesn't even rank 5th. At this point, I'd prefer Nick Foles, too.

 

[MAC_32]

I'd drop Newton below Luck at least. Eli up a couple spots as with Brady who has a couple more years with that offense one would think and what's the point of projecting anyone much past then? Brees has shown no signs of slowing down...1- Rodgers2- Griffin3- Brees 4- Ryan 5- Brady6- Luck7- Eli8- Stafford9- Roethlisberger10- Newton

There are 3 players who have a better season under their belt than Newton's rookie campaign. Only 1 player has done it twice, VBD wise. Newton is having a down year, compared to last, but it compares favorably to a few other QB's second season, including some on your list, and that is ignoring Newton's production on the ground. Based on upside alone, how can he be #10? He is having a very unproductive season through the air, based on NFL standards, and is still a QB1.

See, Michael Vick 2010.

 

[Concept Coop]

See, Michael Vick 2010.

And I assume you apply this logic to RG3 too?RG3 looks a lot more like Vick, simply as a player, than Cam does. Not that any of the 3 are too similar as players.

 

[SSOG]

See, Michael Vick 2010.

You're comparing a head case with a decade in the league on the wrong side of 30 to the guy who set every major rookie passing record?Lots of people way too quick to write off Newton.

 

[EBF]

Luck > RyanRyan is not an elite QB. Good rookie year. Not much since then. YPA last four years: 7.4, 7.4, 6.5, 6.5. Flukey TDs and attempts inflating his stats this year. Definitely a sell right now. Numbers will drop when Gonzo and Toddy slide, and when ATL upgrades Turner.Would also avoid Stafford/Locker and bump up Wilson.

You see fluky TD and attempt totals, I see a major offensive scheme change. And, as I said, it's impossible to ignore that he's currently top 5 in terms of overall VBD.

Where was Stafford in VBD last year?Guys with low YPA who get their stats from a high number of attempts and TDs are prime candidates for being overvalued. But most FF players only look at totals and points, so they fall for these Staffords, Cutlers, and Palmers every time they come along with a "big" season that masks their mediocrity through high volume of attempts and TDs.

 

[MAC_32]

See, Michael Vick 2010.

You're comparing a head case with a decade in the league on the wrong side of 30 to the guy who set every major rookie passing record?Lots of people way too quick to write off Newton.

This is what I expected from day 1, it's why I had no interest in him. Last year got my attention, but I said in August I won't buy in until he does it on the field (and it will be too late) because I expect him to crack under adversity. It's early, but he's taken a big step back like I was wary he would.Coop - RG3 is an unfair comp to either of them, there's zero questions from the neck up concerning him. My concerns re Cam have always been neck up related, only.ETA: and I was responding directly to Coop - his post on Cam's 2011 reminded me of Vick's 2010 , remember reading similar arguments last year.

 

[Concept Coop]

Coop - RG3 is an unfair comp to either of them, there's zero questions from the neck up concerning him. My concerns re Cam have always been neck up related, only.

Ben Roethlisberger is a good comparison: Cam plays like Ben.And Ben's teammates called Ben out publically for not being a leader (before THE issues). I wonder what those teammates say now?This is the first year Newton has had the same teammates since high school. Concerns are a bit premature, in my opinion.He might not be a leader of men, as many put it, but neither is Eli Manning.ALL that will matter, is if Cam is good enough to help his team win games. I think he has the talent, is young, and needs some time. But I think he will.

 

[MAC_32]

Coop - RG3 is an unfair comp to either of them, there's zero questions from the neck up concerning him. My concerns re Cam have always been neck up related, only.

Ben Roethlisberger is a good comparison: Cam plays like Ben.And Ben's teammates called Ben out publically for not being a leader (before THE issues). I wonder what those teammates say now?This is the first year Newton has had the same teammates since high school. Concerns are a bit premature, in my opinion.He might not be a leader of men, as many put it, but neither is Eli Manning.ALL that will matter, is if Cam is good enough to help his team win games. I think he has the talent, is young, and needs some time. But I think he will.

Ben's immature, but very strong minded. Cam's immature and hasn't shown any signs of being mentally tough. Immaturity can win, soft mentally can't and you cannot predict whether that can/will be fixed or not. An extreme example is Ryan Leaf, we all know of his talent which is why he was drafted #2 but he is the most mentally volatile QB I can think of and is why he failed. How big of an issue is it with Cam? I don't know, obviously I think it's a bigger issue than most, but I don't know how bad it is - just feel based off the info I know that there's a lot of people with blinders on because they value him like he's as heady as the best in the league when everything he's shown to date says he is not. Makes valuation on my end easy, those guys that just look at the numbers and the physical potential will do what they have to do to get him on their team. I won't, I think there's some problems upstairs and trend towards Rodgers, RG3, Luck, Brees, and Ryan long before him. They're either elite or showing elite signs and are on the brink right now. Toss Brady in there too. Is Cam right behind them? or would I go for Big Ben, Eli, or Stafford first? Doesn't matter, someone else in my league has him top 5 so it doesn't matter if I have him 7th or 12th - he's not on my team.

 

[ctrlaltdefeat]

Vick 15? Ummm...

 

[Concept Coop]

Ben's immature, but very strong minded. Cam's immature and hasn't shown any signs of being mentally tough. Immaturity can win, soft mentally can't and you cannot predict whether that can/will be fixed or not.

This just isn't true. Michael Jordan was an ### and a poor loser and was as metnally tough as the human species can display playing a sport. Cam was down 21 at half to the 2nd best team in the nation, and came back. He won a national champtionship game while a media frenzy was going on around him. Cam has won at every level. In college, he has two national champtionships and never spent more than a year at each school.

When you decide what mentally soft is, and what immature is, you are cherry picking.

No offense, but I can't take anyone too seriously on the subject, that suggest Cam Newton doesn't have what it takes to win. The kid hates losing, and doesn't handle it well, yet. LeBron James went through it too.

Again, if Cam Newton is good enough to win football games, all of this goes away - it did with Jordan, Kobe, Eli, Ben, etcetera. If he's not, he will be a more productive Cutler/Rivers, and their fantasy points count as much as Tom Brady's.

 

[3optic]

and what's the point of projecting anyone much past then?

My dynasty leagues aren't going to end in a couple years, hopefully. I don't play for the money, although it makes it a bit more interesting, so I am not worried about my leagues ending anytime soon. I play as though I'll be in them forever.

I should have mentioned these are very speculative rankings. I understand his value is much higher...

My take on Cam is that he's on a poorly managed team and is showing a worrisome propensity for not growing. Steve Smith is on his way out and I don't see a player who responds well to adversity or shows the ability to grow now that defenses have adjusted to him. Also while I wouldn't put him in the serious melt down area of Vince Young, his leadership skills have shown to be questionable. I do think this is a big factor in Dynasty.

Hard to put him over Ben seeing how productive he's, been but I could conceivably bump him up a couple of spots depending on what happens with Wallace after this season and how Stafford responds to his slump (I think he's actually playing better than Cam atm... not saying much).

However he is inside my top 10...

 

[MAC_32]

The kid hates losing, and doesn't handle it well

This is the problem - many people that cannot handle failure never figure it out. Others do. Given what we know right now we don't know where Cam is and if he will figure it out or not, his supporters don't price that variance, it's why I have no interest in him from a dynasty pov.

 

[3optic]

Ben's immature, but very strong minded. Cam's immature and hasn't shown any signs of being mentally tough. Immaturity can win, soft mentally can't and you cannot predict whether that can/will be fixed or not.

This just isn't true. Michael Jordan was an ### and a poor loser and was as metnally tough as the human species can display playing a sport. Cam was down 21 at half to the 2nd best team in the nation, and came back. He won a national champtionship game while a media frenzy was going on around him. Cam has won at every level. In college, he has two national champtionships and never spent more than a year at each school.

When you decide what mentally soft is, and what immature is, you are cherry picking.

No offense, but I can't take anyone too seriously on the subject, that suggest Cam Newton doesn't have what it takes to win. The kid hates losing, and doesn't handle it well, yet. LeBron James went through it too.

Again, if Cam Newton is good enough to win football games, all of this goes away - it did with Jordan, Kobe, Eli, Ben, etcetera. If he's not, he will be a more productive Cutler/Rivers, and their fantasy points count as much as Tom Brady's.

A distinction must be made between how MJ responded to losing in comparison to Cam who seems to show a lack of discipline with how he's handling the PR side of things. Granted this is not necessarily how he may be behaving in the locker room but Steve Smith's highly public criticism could be telling. When did you ever see or hear of a veteran player or coach ripping into Jordan for his poor attitude or leadership?

 

[Concept Coop]

I don't see a player who responds well to adversity or shows the ability to grow now that defenses have adjusted to him.

I think 6 games into his 2nd season is a bit early to make this claim. His stats compare favorably with the likes of Ben, Eli, Brees, early on.That said, and this is an honest question: what have defenses done? I watch the guy every week, and he looks like the same guy to me. The difference being his team can't run as effectively, and he is facing 3rd and long a lot more. With the exception of the Giants game, the Panthers are in games. They are 2-3 plays from being 3-3, 4-2. Looking at the team - how much of that is Newton? How much do we fault a 2nd year player that can't win games against teams with better coaching and more talent?

 

[Concept Coop]

A distinction must be made between how MJ responded to losing in comparison to Cam who seems to show a lack of discipline with how he's handling the PR side of things. Granted this is not necessarily how he may be behaving in the locker room but Steve Smith's highly public criticism could be telling. When did you ever see or hear of a veteran player or coach ripping into Jordan for his poor attitude or leadership?

Jordan played before ESPN was big - very hard to compare; before Twitter, Facebook, the internet, even. I am simply pointing out that characters or odd personalities aren't necessarily mentally weak. Newton is a hard worker, and wants to win. I can invenst in that. As for Smith - I think Smith displayed his immaturity, actually. He stayed in the game when the coach asked him to leave with the rest of the 1st team, he celebrated a catch down 100 late in the 4th, he called out a teammate publically, and later apologized for it. And do we know what Smith was angry about? Well, he was angry that they were losing and needed to blame someone. But do you know what Smith CLAIMED to be agree about?Newton not getting "mental reps" by watching the 2nd team play against a Giants team who had called of the dogs? Forgive me for not stoning the kid for that.