Dynasty: Redrafting the 2016 rookies (1 Viewer)

[bostonfred]

Midseason check - where do you rank the 2016 rookie class now?

The rookie consensus mocks looked like this a few months ago

https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/topic/744408-2016-rookie-207-post-nfl-draft/

Standard Scoring 

1.01 RB Ezekiel Elliott, Cowboys 98%
1.02 WR Josh Doctson, Redskins 27%
1.03 WR Laquon Treadwell, Vikings 43%
1.04 WR Corey Coleman, Browns 64%
1.05 RB Derrick Henry, Titans 56%
1.06 WR Sterling Shepard, N.Y. Giants 27%
1.07 RB Kenneth Dixon, Ravens 28%
1.08 WR Michael Thomas, Saints 54%
1.09 RB Devontae Booker, Broncos, 32% 1.10 
1.10 WR Will Fuller, Texans 18%
1.11  WR Tyler Boyd, Bengals 17%
1.12  RB C.J. Prosise, Seahawks 19%

2.01  RB Paul Perkins, NYG 21% 
2.02  WR Leonte Carroo, Dolphins 19%
2.03  QB Jared Goff, Rams 26%
2.04 TE Hunter Henry, Chargers 34%
2.05  RB Jordan Howard, Bears 28%
2.06  QB Carson Wentz, Eagles 24%

 

[bostonfred]

As a stake in the ground, I might rank them something like

1. Ezekiel Elliott - duh

2. Derrick Henry - clearly a future stud

3. Michael Thomas - has already emerged

4. Corey Coleman - my favorite receiver coming out

5. Hunter Henry - last rookie te to look this good was jordan reed

6. Will Fuller - elite speed guy, probably a career fantasy wr2

7. Carson Wentz - sure thing for production, not sure about elite production.

8. Paul Perkins - appears to be taking over the starting job

9. Devontae Booker - appears to have taken over the starting job by injury then got injured.  

10. Jordan Howard - appears to probably be the starter on a team that will have massive offseason changes

11. Kenneth Dixon - would have liked to see more vs pittsburgh after the bye, but i still believe.  honestly i still rank him higher than this but this is where i think you all think he should go.

12. Sterling Shepard - has flashed talent but not consistently and is kind of stuck being the number 2 guy in 3 wr sets.  if cruz misses time he could really take advantage of the opportunity, but i still think his ceiling is capped.

13. Josh Doctson - best ability is availability.  but they seem to love him.  

14. Laquon Treadwell - i'm not ready to write him off altogether, but i wouldn't trade any 2017 first for him

15. CJ Prosise - could add some sexy to a seattle team that needs some but i don't like crowds.

16. Tyler Boyd - doing ok i guess. not sure i will ever fantasize about him playing for my favorite team, which is literally the name of the game, but i wouldn't mind having him

17. Jared Goff - the rams don't own their own first round pick and this kid was supposed to be more pro ready than wentz.  they aren't tanking.  they just think keenum is better than him right now.

18. Leonte Caroo - buried but not really a treasure

But I'm more interested in the discussion.  Would you rather have Coleman or Thomas?  Doctson or Treadwell?  Are they too low?  

 

[Raging weasel]

Not going to rank them all but Dak should be top 5

 

[Dope]

But I'm more interested in the discussion.  Would you rather have Coleman or Thomas?  Doctson or Treadwell?  Are they too low?  

I drafted Coleman over the other 3. If I had to rank them today, in a non-PPR it would be:

1. Coleman - His upside seems to be the moon. Cleveland is showing signs in year 1 of the Hue regime despite being winless through 9 weeks.

2. Thomas - In a PPR league, I might flip these guys. The only concern I've seen to date is that Brees won't be with Thomas his whole career. With Coleman, we can guess it's going to get better so he should, in theory, be better. With Thomas, we can expect his next QB to be worse than Brees, so, in theory, Thomas will suffer.

Also...If I acquired the pick between these 2 in a trade I would take CC if I wasn't a serious contender for his long term (5+ years) payoff and Thomas if I was contending for his short term (under 3 years)

3. Doctston - He seemed to at least have a role before he got injured.

4. Treadwell - I don't get it. How could he not  have a catch until yesterday? I thought he was the most polished of them all.

 

[bostonfred]

Good point.  I was only moving the guys on the original top 18.  

Top 5 though?  Would you take him over Coleman? HHenry?  Fuller?  Wentz?  I get that he looks good but lots of young qbs look good for a season.  Is he a top 5 fantasy QB?

 

[Dope]

Zeke number 1 overall...no duh

in a non-PPR gotta take Henry 2nd.

Coleman 3rd

booker 4th

M-Thomas - 5th

Rest of top 12 = Wentz and Dak, Perkins, Sterling, Fuller, hunter henry, Flip a coin of Raider rookie RBs for 12th

 

[bostonfred]

The only concern I've seen to date is that Brees won't be with Thomas his whole career. With Coleman, we can guess it's going to get better so he should, in theory, be better. With Thomas, we can expect his next QB to be worse than Brees, so, in theory, Thomas will suffer.

I love Coleman and agree it's very close.  The counter argument for Coleman being better long term is that 

1) the better guy today has more trade value, so you can enjoy today's production then trade him for tomorrow's guy.  look back at the demaryius thomas trades in the offseason trade thread two years ago.  he is qb proof!  or the deandre hopkins threads.  or the allen robinson threads, and he didn't even change qbs.

2) speed guys tend to miss time, especially with hammy pulls.  it's hard on the body to do a full sprint at elite speed and turn your head and change directions and cut and immediately start your sprint again and then stop and rest 30 seconds then do it again. 

3) the bad news for thomas is brees won't always be the saints qb, but the bad news for coleman is the browns will always be the browns.

Again, i like them both a lot, just responding to your good post.

 

[bostonfred]

Zeke number 1 overall...no duh

in a non-PPR gotta take Henry 2nd.

Coleman 3rd

booker 4th

M-Thomas - 5th

Rest of top 12 = Wentz and Dak, Perkins, Sterling, Fuller, hunter henry, Flip a coin of Raider rookie RBs for 12th

No howard, dixon or doctson?  Not worried about CJ  Anderson next year?

 

[fightingillini]

Elliott is easily still the #1 player.  By far.  Will likey continue to be a top 5 dynasty asset for at least 3 more years.

#2 has to be Michael Thomas.  Emerging as the #1 (or at least a #1b) option for Brees.  Brees doesn't show any signs of slowing down.  I would rank Coleman higher if he were in a better situation.

The the next bunch can be debated, between (in no particular order)

Howard

D Henry

Coleman

Booker

Prescott

Wentz

H Henry

Shepard

Fuller

Perkins

Some combination of these would be my top 12.

 

[fruity pebbles]

Think you're way too high on average talent RBs. Especially with a strong RB class coming in this year, id go something like:

1. Zeke

2. Coleman

3. Thomas

4. Shepard

5. Fuller

6. D Henry

7. Treadwell

8. Doctson

9. H Henry

10. Howard

 

[Dope]

No howard, dixon or doctson?  Not worried about CJ  Anderson next year?

1. Dixon was an oversight. Put him in that "gang of 7" instead of the raider rbs.

2. I was never sure about Docston. Even before the season. Fuller takes his place in my eyes as he has elite speed and his "dropsie" concerns seem to be not as bad as talked about pre-draft.

3. I'll use a bloom line about Howard - I wouldn't talk you out of  drafting him in the first.

4. i'm intrigued by Booker. I was before the draft despite CJA being there. i'm more so now (despite yesterday's poor showing)

 

[Dope]

I love Coleman and agree it's very close.  The counter argument for Coleman being better long term is that 

1) the better guy today has more trade value, so you can enjoy today's production then trade him for tomorrow's guy.  look back at the demaryius thomas trades in the offseason trade thread two years ago.  he is qb proof!  or the deandre hopkins threads.  or the allen robinson threads, and he didn't even change qbs.

2) speed guys tend to miss time, especially with hammy pulls.  it's hard on the body to do a full sprint at elite speed and turn your head and change directions and cut and immediately start your sprint again and then stop and rest 30 seconds then do it again. 

3) the bad news for thomas is brees won't always be the saints qb, but the bad news for coleman is the browns will always be the browns.

Again, i like them both a lot, just responding to your good post.

Thanks for the kind words...re: the bolded part...I don't agree. I do think there is something different this time. I can't tell exactly why, it's just a feeling that i haven't had before regarding cleveland. Must be the Indians/Cavs success causing hope. I dunno.

Also, I agree about the trade value, but I would bet that after this season is over, Coleman owners would be able to approach Thomas owners and do 1for1 swaps if not get a extra pieve (4th rounder?) from the Thomas owner.

 

[Raging weasel]

Good point.  I was only moving the guys on the original top 18.  

Top 5 though?  Would you take him over Coleman? HHenry?  Fuller?  Wentz?  I get that he looks good but lots of young qbs look good for a season.  Is he a top 5 fantasy QB?

I would rank them

1-zeke

2-coleman

3-thomas

4-hunter henry

5-dak prescott

6-D henry

7-Shepard

8-Fuller

9-Dixon

10-Wentz

 Dak looks like the real deal and franchise QBs are alot harder to find than RB/WR. Same goes for H Henry-looks like a fairly polished route runner and a good blocker. Zeke is an elite talent so still #1 by a mile but RBs tend to have shorter careers than the rest and QBs usually get better with age for the 1t 10 years barring injury.

 

[wikkidpissah]

Wentz is a close 2nd to Zeke for me. He's got future-Peyton written all over him, even with this mini-slump since his o-line fell apart. Easy most career fantasy points of the '16 draft.

 

[bostonfred]

I agree about Henry - there are only a handful of tight ends in the league who check all the boxes he does.  Good qb, good offense but no elite targets (i love tyrell but come on), good receiving, good blocking, and despite his college usage, seems to be a capable goal line guy.  It's rare that good tight ends come out, into good situations, and his floor is so good, plus the payoff of owning that rare best tight end in the league is just so high, that it's worth paying up for the lottery ticket   

Not so sure about dak and wentz.  Both are probably going to be good in this league for a long time, but there's a big difference between good starter and good fantasy qb.  The asking price for Mariotta, Winston, Prescott and Wentz is really high right now, but they can't all be worth it.  The supply is just too high relative to the demand to spend early picks on qbs.  

 

[bostonfred]

Think you're way too high on average talent RBs. Especially with a strong RB class coming in this year, id go something like:

1. Zeke

2. Coleman

3. Thomas

4. Shepard

5. Fuller

6. D Henry

7. Treadwell

8. Doctson

9. H Henry

10. Howard

I'm guessing you play ppr dynasty, probably with multiple flex spots.  I play standard so my rankings skew more towards rb (hence why i started with the standard rankings in the first post).  You should still have derrick henry at 2 though imo.  In any format.  He's a rare talent   

Curious why you don't have hhenry higher.  is it just the position?  or not a fan of him as a player.  

 

[fruity pebbles]

Yeah, ppr dynasty. Im a WR guy so dont invest heavily in RBs unless i feel they are elite. I can see an argument for having D Henry higher but the other guys (Dixon, Booker etc) im afraid will have too hard a time hanging on to a job long term to invest that highly in them. As far as H Henry, yeah mainly a positional thing. I usually dont invest a lot in tight ends unless its a Gronk type player. Too many in that tier below him. Add in the strong draft class coming in, Rivers being 35 and prolly only having a couple years left and Gates himself having likely one more year. I couldnt get any of the WRs i have above him for him in the leagues i play in.

 

[bostonfred]

Yeah, ppr dynasty. Im a WR guy so dont invest heavily in RBs unless i feel they are elite. I can see an argument for having D Henry higher but the other guys (Dixon, Booker etc) im afraid will have too hard a time hanging on to a job long term to invest that highly in them. As far as H Henry, yeah mainly a positional thing. I usually dont invest a lot in tight ends unless its a Gronk type player. Too many in that tier below him. Add in the strong draft class coming in, Rivers being 35 and prolly only having a couple years left and Gates himself having likely one more year. I couldnt get any of the WRs i have above him for him in the leagues i play in.

I can see that.  Especially in leagues where you can start 5 wrs.  I think he will probably end up being a wr3 with wr2 upside most years, although I can see him having a wr1 season in a career year.  That puts him near the top of a big bucket of guys from about wr20 to wr40, where I can see someone strongly preferring Stefon Diggs or Desean Jackson to Julian Edelman or Jeremy Maclin but they're all going to have career years and below average years in pretty good careers.

In my 14 team standard league with rwwft, you only start 56 position players and 14 tes.  Most weeks that's about 20-25 rbs and 30-35 wrs.  Shepard would need to move a clear tier up to get me excited in that league.  Otherwise he's just good depth.  

Hunter Henry, to my eye, does have that Gronk potential.  I honestly can't remember a rookie te this good since reed or Gronk.  He might never end up being that good, but he's going to be a very good player regardless.  My league rewards studs more than wr depth, so Henry is an easy pick over Shepard. But in your leagues, a good wr2/3 replacing a wr5 in your lineup is worth risking a chance at an elite te (or, said differently, a chance at an elite te isn't worth giving up a quality wr unless you're absolutely stacked).  I really don't like those kinds of leagues, but i get it.

As for Derrick Henry, I believe he will go to the hall of fame, so getting him anything after 1.2 is a coup.  

 

[bostonfred]

In the race for top receiver, Thomas may have gained on Coleman by default.   It is close regardless.

Dixon moves up after 11 touches for 80 yards last night.  Good weekend to watch what perkins, booker and howard do.  They're all getting chances here. 

Shepard could get some more looks if cruz sits out.  What he does with them could have a big impact going forward.

 

[Hankmoody]

Elliott

 

[jeaton6]

I agree about Henry - there are only a handful of tight ends in the league who check all the boxes he does.  Good qb, good offense but no elite targets (i love tyrell but come on), good receiving, good blocking, and despite his college usage, seems to be a capable goal line guy.  It's rare that good tight ends come out, into good situations, and his floor is so good, plus the payoff of owning that rare best tight end in the league is just so high, that it's worth paying up for the lottery ticket   

Not so sure about dak and wentz.  Both are probably going to be good in this league for a long time, but there's a big difference between good starter and good fantasy qb.  The asking price for Mariotta, Winston, Prescott and Wentz is really high right now, but they can't all be worth it.  The supply is just too high relative to the demand to spend early picks on qbs.  

This. I'm shocked to see so many QBs in people's top 8. I must have missed the boat on Wentz having sky high value right now.

 

[groin pains]

I would like to hear who you guys may be stashing for the 2017 season who may be on WW???

 

[JWebs85]

Sort of off topic, but I think in a few years from now Austin Hooper will be in this convo. IMO, he's the next Greg Olsen. He catches everything and has Matt Ryan as his QB. 

 

[bostonfred]

Sort of off topic, but I think in a few years from now Austin Hooper will be in this convo. IMO, he's the next Greg Olsen. He catches everything and has Matt Ryan as his QB. 

That's actually the exact topic here.  Who would you take him over?

 

[massraider]

1.01 RB Ezekiel Elliott, Cowboys 98%

1.08 WR Michael Thomas, Saints 54%
1.04 WR Corey Coleman, Browns 64%
1.05 RB Derrick Henry, Titans 56%
1.06 WR Sterling Shepard, N.Y. Giants 27%
2.04 TE Hunter Henry, Chargers 34%

Dak Prescott
2.06  QB Carson Wentz, Eagles 24%
1.10 WR Will Fuller, Texans 18%
2.05  RB Jordan Howard, Bears 28%
1.02 WR Josh Doctson, Redskins 27%
1.03 WR Laquon Treadwell, Vikings 43%

Paxton Lynch
1.07 RB Kenneth Dixon, Ravens 28%
 TE Austin Hooper
1.09 RB Devontae Booker, Broncos, 32% 1.10 
1.11  WR Tyler Boyd, Bengals 17%
1.12  RB C.J. Prosise, Seahawks 19%

2.01  RB Paul Perkins, NYG 21% 

Deandre Washington
2.02  WR Leonte Carroo, Dolphins 19%
2.03  QB Jared Goff, Rams 26%

Roughly how I would do it.  I add Paxton Lynch because it looks like he will get a good shot at being QB for a top organization.  

 

[JWebs85]

That's actually the exact topic here.  Who would you take him over?

Me personally... I would take him over Treadwell, Doctson, Caroo, Boyd,  and Fuller to name a few. Shephard is borderline, because as long as Beckham is there he'll always be the 2nd option best case scenario. Hooper will more than likely end up becoming the #1 TE in an Atlanta offense that loves to utilize the position. I value if players will be "the guy" on their team and players who are WR #2 on an offense to me carry less value, no matter what round they were drafted.

 

[Milkman]

Dak has Cam Newton upside. He could run for 4-6 TD'S a year and throw for 35+ TD's. He's jumped Wentz in my QB rankings. 

I mean he's keeping an elite QB on the sidelines with his play and he's a rare dual threat QB. 

 

[bostonfred]

End of the regular season

1 Elliott - obv

2 Thomas - WR1 as a rookie. 

3 DHenry - Great talent, great o line, just waiting for murray to give way

4 Howard - I.don't always trust strong second half performances on teams in turmoil but the production is legit and the system is favorable

5 Coleman - Could make a good case for him as high as 3 in ppr/multiple flex but they're all good players

6 HHenry - had a strong rookie te season and wasn't even the te1 on his own nfl team. 

7 Dixon - his power plus his receiving ability give him multi year rb1 potential. I like him as the top of this tier but others will likely have him down near 11 or so. 

8 Prescott - mobility is a huge plus when it works, and the o line is sick, but the nfl is littered with mobile qbs who looked like the next big thing then fell way off and qbs are only truly valuable when they are significantly better than the average fantasy starter. 

9 Prosise - tough to rank. I think he's more physically talented than rawls and he played better when he started. But he's kind of like ty montgomery - a converted wr who can play the position productively but still has some things to learn. If I were confident that Carroll would make him the starter I'd move him into the top 5. 

10 Shepard - looks like a solid wr2/wr3 type. Would move him up in ppr with multiple flexes

11 Fuller - boom/bust player who boomed early but got hurt and his qb fizzled. A good qb would boost his value a lot.

12 Wentz - looks like a good, safe pick with a chance to become a top passer, but you're buying in the hopes he's a perennial elite fantasy qb which is still very much a long shot

13 Doctson - Flashed in limited opportunity and should get his opportunity as soon as this year. Cousins looks like the real deal, Crowder looks like a solid complementary player, and Reed draws coverage but might do better to see fewer looks. If Doctson shines, could put up wr1 numbers.

14 Perkins - finally starting for the giants. Flashed early and has gotten more consistent throughout the year. His upcoming playoff performance could define his career by helping the giants decide if rb is a big offseason priority

15 Booker - looked so much better behind cj anderson than as starter. Could still win the job long term but he didn't win it with a long audition this year.

16 Treadwell - Should be able to improve on his 2016 numbers - 1 catch for 15 yards.

17 Hooper - Will be a popular late round sleeper next year in redraft. I don't know if he will ever be gronk but he could be rudolph.

18 Boyd - Good receiver, but not sure he will ever demand targets and he may be the fifth option in the passing game for a while.

I'm sure I'm missing some.

Overall this looks like it was a much better class than people suggested.  I see ten, maybe twelve good starters with some potential for guys like perkins, booker, treadwell, etc to emerge later. 

 

[bostonfred]

End of the regular season

1 Elliott - obv

2 Thomas - WR1 as a rookie. 

3 DHenry - Great talent, great o line, just waiting for murray to give way

4 Howard - I.don't always trust strong second half performances on teams in turmoil but the production is legit and the system is favorable

5 Coleman - Could make a good case for him as high as 3 in ppr/multiple flex but they're all good players

6 HHenry - had a strong rookie te season and wasn't even the te1 on his own nfl team. 

7 Dixon - his power plus his receiving ability give him multi year rb1 potential. I like him as the top of this tier but others will likely have him down near 11 or so. 

8 Prescott - mobility is a huge plus when it works, and the o line is sick, but the nfl is littered with mobile qbs who looked like the next big thing then fell way off and qbs are only truly valuable when they are significantly better than the average fantasy starter. 

9 Prosise - tough to rank. I think he's more physically talented than rawls and he played better when he started. But he's kind of like ty montgomery - a converted wr who can play the position productively but still has some things to learn. If I were confident that Carroll would make him the starter I'd move him into the top 5. 

10 Shepard - looks like a solid wr2/wr3 type. Would move him up in ppr with multiple flexes

11 Fuller - boom/bust player who boomed early but got hurt and his qb fizzled. A good qb would boost his value a lot.

12 Wentz - looks like a good, safe pick with a chance to become a top passer, but you're buying in the hopes he's a perennial elite fantasy qb which is still very much a long shot

13 Doctson - Flashed in limited opportunity and should get his opportunity as soon as this year. Cousins looks like the real deal, Crowder looks like a solid complementary player, and Reed draws coverage but might do better to see fewer looks. If Doctson shines, could put up wr1 numbers.

14 Perkins - finally starting for the giants. Flashed early and has gotten more consistent throughout the year. His upcoming playoff performance could define his career by helping the giants decide if rb is a big offseason priority

15 Booker - looked so much better behind cj anderson than as starter. Could still win the job long term but he didn't win it with a long audition this year.

16 Treadwell - Should be able to improve on his 2016 numbers - 1 catch for 15 yards.

17 Hooper - Will be a popular late round sleeper next year in redraft. I don't know if he will ever be gronk but he could be rudolph.

18 Boyd - Good receiver, but not sure he will ever demand targets and he may be the fifth option in the passing game for a while.

I'm sure I'm missing some.

Overall this looks like it was a much better class than people suggested.  I see ten, maybe twelve good starters with some potential for guys like perkins, booker, treadwell, etc to emerge later. 

 

[fruity pebbles]

Id put Sterling around 6 or 7. Hes gonna be a mainstay in that offense for a while. Gotta have Tyreek Hill on there somewhere.

 

[Bfrahm3]

End of the regular season

1 Elliott - obv

2 Thomas - WR1 as a rookie. 

3 DHenry - Great talent, great o line, just waiting for murray to give way

4 Howard - I.don't always trust strong second half performances on teams in turmoil but the production is legit and the system is favorable

5 Coleman - Could make a good case for him as high as 3 in ppr/multiple flex but they're all good players

6 HHenry - had a strong rookie te season and wasn't even the te1 on his own nfl team. 

7 Dixon - his power plus his receiving ability give him multi year rb1 potential. I like him as the top of this tier but others will likely have him down near 11 or so. 

8 Prescott - mobility is a huge plus when it works, and the o line is sick, but the nfl is littered with mobile qbs who looked like the next big thing then fell way off and qbs are only truly valuable when they are significantly better than the average fantasy starter. 

9 Prosise - tough to rank. I think he's more physically talented than rawls and he played better when he started. But he's kind of like ty montgomery - a converted wr who can play the position productively but still has some things to learn. If I were confident that Carroll would make him the starter I'd move him into the top 5. 

10 Shepard - looks like a solid wr2/wr3 type. Would move him up in ppr with multiple flexes

11 Fuller - boom/bust player who boomed early but got hurt and his qb fizzled. A good qb would boost his value a lot.

12 Wentz - looks like a good, safe pick with a chance to become a top passer, but you're buying in the hopes he's a perennial elite fantasy qb which is still very much a long shot

13 Doctson - Flashed in limited opportunity and should get his opportunity as soon as this year. Cousins looks like the real deal, Crowder looks like a solid complementary player, and Reed draws coverage but might do better to see fewer looks. If Doctson shines, could put up wr1 numbers.

14 Perkins - finally starting for the giants. Flashed early and has gotten more consistent throughout the year. His upcoming playoff performance could define his career by helping the giants decide if rb is a big offseason priority

15 Booker - looked so much better behind cj anderson than as starter. Could still win the job long term but he didn't win it with a long audition this year.

16 Treadwell - Should be able to improve on his 2016 numbers - 1 catch for 15 yards.

17 Hooper - Will be a popular late round sleeper next year in redraft. I don't know if he will ever be gronk but he could be rudolph.

18 Boyd - Good receiver, but not sure he will ever demand targets and he may be the fifth option in the passing game for a while.

I'm sure I'm missing some.

Overall this looks like it was a much better class than people suggested.  I see ten, maybe twelve good starters with some potential for guys like perkins, booker, treadwell, etc to emerge later. 

The main guy I'd say you forgot was tyreek hill, I'm not as high on him as most because I feel like yes he can break a big play anytime but he's also only had big plays this year and that number can change so much next year. He's easily top 10 still, I'd probably put him in front of Dixon on this list, maybe he improves his routes and what not and gets less boom or bust which would raise him even higher. In a league with return yardage I'm guessing he would go ahead of Thomas in some of them

 

[bostonfred]

Id put Sterling around 6 or 7. Hes gonna be a mainstay in that offense for a while. Gotta have Tyreek Hill on there somewhere.

In my write up i said i would too in ppr/lots of flexes. But while I see him as a very good young receiver, I don't see him as an emergent WR1, so I'd still put him just below dixon, prosise and prescott, who all do have the potential to be studs at their positions. Shepard is probably the safer pick to be a perennial starter, but with a bit lower ceiling.

 

[bostonfred]

The main guy I'd say you forgot was tyreek hill, I'm not as high on him as most because I feel like yes he can break a big play anytime but he's also only had big plays this year and that number can change so much next year. He's easily top 10 still, I'd probably put him in front of Dixon on this list, maybe he improves his routes and what not and gets less boom or bust which would raise him even higher. In a league with return yardage I'm guessing he would go ahead of Thomas in some of them

Yeah definitely forgot him - was working off the preseason and midseason lists. Interesting case because of the big plays you mentioned - those aren't sustainable in the nfl. But he's clearly talented and should earn more volume as both a runner and receiver. I would probably put him lower than most - behind shepard, ahead of fuller maybe, which for me would be 11th. I wouldn't feel comfortable with him as an every week starter unless i had good depth behind him.

 

[Bfrahm3]

Yeah definitely forgot him - was working off the preseason and midseason lists. Interesting case because of the big plays you mentioned - those aren't sustainable in the nfl. But he's clearly talented and should earn more volume as both a runner and receiver. I would probably put him lower than most - behind shepard, ahead of fuller maybe, which for me would be 11th. I wouldn't feel comfortable with him as an every week starter unless i had good depth behind him.

I think we rank him about the same then, I put him ahead of Shepard tho since as a WR3 or flex I'd rather go with the guy that might get 30 points any given week

 

[menobrown]

3 DHenry - Great talent, great o line, just waiting for murray to give way

4 Howard - I.don't always trust strong second half performances on teams in turmoil but the production is legit and the system is favorable

Always a fun exercise re-doing rookie drafts but I don't live in a world where I'm putting a RBBC guy, for one more season at least, over a guy how just put down a top 20 all time rookie rushing season and looks every bit as real as deal as Henry. I mean it's a jump to conclusion to even assume Henry can take on a full time role and be effective but I can get behind that argument if Henry realistically got that chance next season to make that an argument. I get that it's dynasty but immediacy matters and I can't ignore fact that Henry is in a RBBC and again he's not even as proven as Howard, not even remotely as proven on the NFL level.

Also I'm a big believer that one of biggest mistakes, fools gold, is dynasty or fantasy owners in general who make to much of a backup RB who is thrust into starters role later in the season and explodes. I don't want to put words in your mouth but when you reference that Howard had a strong second half you seem to be inferring this but he was producing as soon as he got a shot and was over 100 as early as week 4. Was not a case of a fresh legs back against tired defenses or anything to me.

Someone I know sent me a rookie re-draft a few days ago they heard on a fantasy radio show and I think they had Howard at 10 or 11 and Treadwell at 5 or 6. This is not what you did but I still think after a year in the books some people can't let go of their bias formed by their earlier rankings. I do it myself sometimes and did so recently with the same guy you forgot, Tyrek Hill who I also forgot when I was doing my rookie re-draft rankings because he was someone who never came to my mind in rookie drafts. Hard to completely let go of what we formed in our minds back when we did rookie drafts.

 

[Hankmoody]

Elliott

Hmm just noticed that, not sure what happened to my original reply.

Elliott
Michael Thomas
Derrick Henry
Howard
Tyreek Hill (return yardage PPR, otherwise 10)
Corey Coleman
Shepard
Dixon
Doctson
Robby Anderson
Malcolm Mitchell
Perkins

edit: I knew I was missing someone (Anderson)

 

[bostonfred]

Always a fun exercise re-doing rookie drafts but I don't live in a world where I'm putting a RBBC guy, for one more season at least, over a guy how just put down a top 20 all time rookie rushing season and looks every bit as real as deal as Henry. I mean it's a jump to conclusion to even assume Henry can take on a full time role and be effective but I can get behind that argument if Henry realistically got that chance next season to make that an argument. I get that it's dynasty but immediacy matters and I can't ignore fact that Henry is in a RBBC and again he's not even as proven as Howard, not even remotely as proven on the NFL level..

As a dynasty owner, would I trade Howard for Henry right now? Probably not. Would I trade Henry for Howard right now? Probably not. They are very close. 

Howard definitely had a big year. 1600 total yards and 7 tds and he wasn't even a full year starter.  He averaged over 5 yards a carry, got a heavy workload, and plays for a run heavy coach.  He's a stud. I wouldn't argue with anyone preferring him. 

Henry had fewer carries, fewer tds and lower ypc (4.5) and will probably compete for time again next year. I agree it's hard to prefer that.

The reasons I slightly favor Henry are

1) Look at the season Murray just had. Henry is arguably a more talented player than Murray. The opportunity is enormous.

2) Look at the Titans O line. Arguably second only to the Cowboys. 

3) We know Henry can handle a huge workload, and he just got a year off from  the wear and tear of that huge workload that made people nervous his final year in college. 

4) I think Henry has hall of fame talent. His size, speed, and agility are outliers, and he is obviously pretty good at football, too. 

5) Neither one plays for a powerhouse, but the Titans seem more settled. The Bears are going to deal with a new qb, may lose their top receiver, and may lose other key cogs, too. The Titans have their qb, o line and coach settled and look like a run heavy team going forward. The good news for Howard is that he overcame adversity this year to have a very good season, but it's going to be different adversity, and that's always a bit of a wildcard (see also: Deandre Hopkins, Todd Gurley, etc)

Either way, they are both players I would love to own and in the same basic tier for me. 

 

[bostonfred]

Malcolm Mitchell

I missed him, too. I probably take him right in that shepard/fuller/tyreek area where i can see someone strongly preferring any of these guys.

 

[bostonfred]

Reading a little more on some of these guys, i may have paul perkins too low.