[DYNASTY] Sleeper List (1 Viewer)

[MAC_32]

Many of you know I'm very high on Mike Walker JAC, and I don't see Holt's arrival (or the two added rookies) impeding his future stardom.

Here's a mini camp update on him from jaguars.com Senior Editor Vic Ketchman, dated today, answering a question from a fan. Note the comment regarding the knees (it frustrates me to no end that people on this board won't let go of the fallacy that he still has knee problems).

http://www.jaguars.com/news/article.aspx?id=7847

Will from Jacksonville

How is Mike Walker looking? I feel if he takes a big step this year our wide receiving corps will get a huge boost.

Vic: Mike turned in another outstanding series of underwear performances. He was, in my opinion, the most impressive receiver in mini-camp and I saw no wrap of any kind on either knee. This was the best I have seen him run in successive practices.

If Thomas and Dillard develop as well as I think they will and Walker's knee issues truly are a fallacy this could be a lethal trio for years to come. Holt's probably going to limit either Walker or Dillard in the short term (one year? two years? half season? I don't know) but I don't see Northcutt holding Thomas off for long.

I think Thomas is going to be a terrific career slot receiver and will supplant Northcutt before the end of 2009.I see Holt as co-#1 in 2009 to start out, but it will become evident Walker should be the go to guy at this stage of their respective careers. There are lots of cases where fans think 32-33 year old guys changing teams will return to stats of their glory years when they were 27-30, but find they are capable of being no more than complementary players. Holt admits himself he's lost a lot of his speed, and I didn't see the ability to separate last year that he used to have. I see him starting in 2009 and probably 2010, but that's about it. Who replaces Holt after that? I don't know.

This board is bonkers over Dillard, and I think that has much to do with Bloom's love of Dillard and the great respect we all have for Bloom. He hit big time on 4th rounder Brandon Marshall, and we all remember that. But I'm just not so sure Dillard will be a starter in this league. He was passed on by 32 teams for 143 picks, and 21 WRs were taken ahead of him. He was rated the consensus 18th WR on Bob Sorter's aggregation of 11 draft services, and the 18th WR went in the late 4th round. John Hansen of FantasyGuru.con doesn't rank Dillard among the top 20 post-draft keeper rookie prospects. Googling around the 'net suggest his upside is as a career #3 receiver. God bless Bloom if he's right about Dillard and I'm going to be open minded about him, but my expectations aren't nearly as high as others here.

A slot WR exectation for Thomas is fair, a red zone threat expectation for Dillard is also fair. I just think both have the upside to be future starters, I've been aware of Dillard for a while and EBF was actually the one to get me to take greater notice of him, not Bloom. Bloom just further convinced me that what I was seeing with my eyes was legit, and not just fool's gold.I've never been one to 'follow the herd' if you will, so misc. rankings (without accompanying observation write up's) on the net don't hold much weight with me. If they're accompanied with observational analysis I'll read and take note, but if it's just based off news reports and when they were drafted, not so much.

 

[EBF]

This board is bonkers over Dillard, and I think that has much to do with Bloom's love of Dillard and the great respect we all have for Bloom. He hit big time on 4th rounder Brandon Marshall, and we all remember that. But I'm just not so sure Dillard will be a starter in this league. He was passed on by 32 teams for 143 picks in 5 rounds, and 21 WRs were taken ahead of him. He was rated the consensus 18th WR on Bob Sorter's aggregation of 11 draft services, and the 18th WR went in the late 4th round. John Hansen of FantasyGuru.com doesn't rank Dillard among the top 20 post-draft keeper rookie prospects. Googling around the 'net suggest his upside is as a career #3 receiver. God bless Bloom if he's right about Dillard and I'm going to be open minded about him. However, the FBG board love for him may be a case of group think going on, and my expectations aren't nearly as high as others here.

I think the truth lies somewhere in the middle. Dillard is definitely a better football player than most of the WRs drafted ahead of him, but he doesn't have the body or the speed that teams want in a starter. FWIW, there's already been one puff piece out of minicamp:

Fifth-round draft pick Jarett Dillard is trying to be like some notable late round picks that include Wes Welker, Marques Colston, Donald Driver, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Lance Moore, Kevin Walter, and Derrick Mason who have made an impact on their respective teams.In Dillard’s first taste of NFL action in Friday’s minicamp, the former Rice Owl dazzled onlookers as he effortlessly plucked the ball out of the air, time and time again. Dillard showed glimpses of what made him the NCAA’s all-time touchdown receiving leader as he finished his legendary career finding the end zone 59 times.

 

[Couch Potato]

This board is bonkers over Dillard, and I think that has much to do with Bloom's love of Dillard and the great respect we all have for Bloom. He hit big time on 4th rounder Brandon Marshall, and we all remember that. But I'm just not so sure Dillard will be a starter in this league. He was passed on by 32 teams for 143 picks in 5 rounds, and 21 WRs were taken ahead of him. He was rated the consensus 18th WR on Bob Sorter's aggregation of 11 draft services, and the 18th WR went in the late 4th round. John Hansen of FantasyGuru.com doesn't rank Dillard among the top 20 post-draft keeper rookie prospects. Googling around the 'net suggest his upside is as a career #3 receiver. God bless Bloom if he's right about Dillard and I'm going to be open minded about him. However, the FBG board love for him may be a case of group think going on, and my expectations aren't nearly as high as others here.

I think the truth lies somewhere in the middle. Dillard is definitely a better football player than most of the WRs drafted ahead of him, but he doesn't have the body or the speed that teams want in a starter. FWIW, there's already been one puff piece out of minicamp:

Fifth-round draft pick Jarett Dillard is trying to be like some notable late round picks that include Wes Welker, Marques Colston, Donald Driver, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Lance Moore, Kevin Walter, and Derrick Mason who have made an impact on their respective teams.

In Dillard’s first taste of NFL action in Friday’s minicamp, the former Rice Owl dazzled onlookers as he effortlessly plucked the ball out of the air, time and time again. Dillard showed glimpses of what made him the NCAA’s all-time touchdown receiving leader as he finished his legendary career finding the end zone 59 times.

I read that puff piece earlier today, and found interesting what I read a bit further down the article.http://jac.scout.com/2/862016.html

JagNation asked OwlDigest.com publisher David Mooney what he thought of the talented rookie—

You've probably seen some of his numbers - 59 career touchdowns, 284 catches - so you know he's been very productive.

I think Jarett will be a great #3 receiver (snip)

A #3 receiver, the opinion of one of Dillard's biggest fans (OwlDigest.com follows the Rice Owls, Dillard's college team). Hmmm. That definitely caught my attention. Now, he didn't specify whether he meant in Year 1 or career, but the context, to me anyway, suggested he wasn't talking about Year 1 only.

 

[EBF]

Mike Mayock said something interesting on the second day of the draft. Basically, he said that there are two kinds of players available in the mid-late rounds: guys with borderline physical tools who were great college players and guys with ideal physical tools who were underachievers in college. I think the same thing applies in rookie drafts.

The guys who are elite athletes and elite college players come off the board early. Hakeem Nicks, Percy Harvin, Knowshon Moreno. You're not going to get those guys in the second round of your rookie draft. What you're left to choose from is players who are flawed in some way. Guys like Mohamed Massaquoi and Patrick Turner have NFL bodies, but neither was a particularly good college player. Guys like Jarett Dillard, Mike Thomas, and Austin Collie were great college players, but they have some physical flaws that might prevent them from succeeding at the pro level.

Which group should you favor? I tend to subscribe to the idea that "projects" always fail. Quincy Morgan, Tyrone Calico, Jerome Simpson. These guys come along every year and trick people because they have a huge "upside." The thing is, if you can't catch a football, you're not suddenly going to develop focus, coordination, and good hands. You either have them or you don't. At the same time, not all great college players pan out. I think you have to look at each individual prospect and ask two questions:

1. Is he a good football player?

2. Does he have physical gifts on par with successful pro players at his position?

In the case of Dillard, he has as much football talent as any WR in the class. Where he falls short is in the physical gifts department. He's slender and he runs about a tenth of a second slower than he should. But he also has the highest vertical leap and the longest broad jump in the entire WR draft class, so it's not like he's a terrible athlete. I would probably place him behind guys like Brandon Tate and Mike Thomas (who have a skill/athleticism combo on par with anyone else in the draft), but I'd probably place him ahead of the underachieving projects like Mohamed Massaquoi, Patrick Turner, and Derrick Williams. You can rank him somewhere in the 20-30 range among rookies and still get him in many of your drafts without being forced to reach for him in favor of can't-miss prospects.

 

[Couch Potato]

Mike Mayock said something interesting on the second day of the draft. Basically, he said that there are two kinds of players available in the mid-late rounds: guys with borderline physical tools who were great college players and guys with ideal physical tools who were underachievers in college. I think the same thing applies in rookie drafts.The guys who are elite athletes and elite college players come off the board early. Hakeem Nicks, Percy Harvin, Knowshon Moreno. You're not going to get those guys in the second round of your rookie draft. What you're left to choose from is players who are flawed in some way. Guys like Mohamed Massaquoi and Patrick Turner have NFL bodies, but neither was a particularly good college player. Guys like Jarett Dillard, Mike Thomas, and Austin Collie were great college players, but they have some physical flaws that might prevent them from succeeding at the pro level.Which group should you favor? I tend to subscribe to the idea that "projects" always fail. Quincy Morgan, Tyrone Calico, Jerome Simpson. These guys come along every year and trick people because they have a huge "upside." The thing is, if you can't catch a football, you're not suddenly going to develop focus, coordination, and good hands. You either have them or you don't. At the same time, not all great college players pan out. I think you have to look at each individual prospect and ask two questions:1. Is he a good football player? 2. Does he have physical gifts on par with successful pro players at his position?In the case of Dillard, he has as much football talent as any WR in the class. Where he falls short is in the physical gifts department. He's slender and he runs about a tenth of a second slower than he should. But he also has the highest vertical leap and the longest broad jump in the entire WR draft class, so it's not like he's a terrible athlete. I would probably place him behind guys like Brandon Tate and Mike Thomas (who have a skill/athleticism combo on par with anyone else in the draft), but I'd probably place him ahead of the underachieving projects like Mohamed Massaquoi, Patrick Turner, and Derrick Williams. You can rank him somewhere in the 20-30 range among rookies and still get him in many of your drafts without being forced to reach for him in favor of can't-miss prospects.

Excellent post EBF.I said upthread I'm keeping an open mind with Dillard. We have to do that or we're foolish. If not, you never see (as listed above) guys like Wes Welker, Marques Colston, Donald Driver, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Lance Moore, Kevin Walter, and Derrick Mason until someone else owns them.All I was doing in my Dillard comments was putting some perspective on Dillard (call it devil's advocate if you like), based on how the non-FBG world is viewing him. I really do think we on this message board have a bandwagon mentality, following strong opinions of highly regarded people here (you are one of those highly regarded people, Bloom is another). So, consider my posts in this thread just a caution for people drafting later this summer to realize there are a lot of folks not nearly as high on Dillard as would be suggested by this FBG frame of reference we all share.I saw in our HyperActive rookie drafts last weekend (made up of FBG staff and message boarders) that Dillard went high, much higher than non-FBG sources suggest he would go. Again, a consensus of 11 draft services had him the 18th WR. Millions of dollars pumped into team scouting resulted in him being drafted as the 21st WR. Time will tell on Dillard. His is a career I'll be especially interested to follow, given the wide differences of opinion on him.

 

[Liquid Tension]

Whenever I'm preparing for a dynasty draft, I try to build a list of quality sleepers who look like they have a chance to emerge from obscurity and become steals. I just finished a draft today, so I have a fresh set of players in mind. Without further ado, here are some of the better sleepers I'm focusing on this offseason:

QB Trent Edwards, Bills - After starting the season in top form last year, Edwards hit a downswing that culminated in a disastrous performance on national TV against the Browns. Almost everyone has cooled off on his FF value, but I still think he has the potential to develop into a franchise quarterback. From the moment he entered the league, almost all of the tea leaves surrounding Edwards have been positive. He dominated in his first preseason and quickly nudged incumbent JP Losman aside. He must have inspired a lot of faith in the organization because they've made no significant effort to replace him either of the last two seasons. His statistics improved across the board last season and if he can stay healthy, he might finally earn some respect this season. Currently ranked as the dynasty QB28 by the FBG staff, Edwards has the potential to finish the season among the top 15. He's an ideal QB2 in dynasty leagues if you have a solid starter.

RB Pierre Thomas, Saints - Thomas made a big splash last season with a string of several big games towards the end of the season. His value appeared to be in jeopardy as the Saints flirted with Moreno and Wells in the draft, but Pierre owners dodged a bullet when neither of those nightmare scenarios played out. I'm not convinced that Thomas has the elite talent needed to become a long term top 10 dynasty back, but he looks like a very good bet to put together a strong 2009 season and achieve a nice value bump over the next 12 months. Reggie Bush is recovering from microfracture surgery and is best in a complementary role anyway. Thomas looks like he could be one of the key players who emerge from the middle rounds to help teams win titles this season. At his current price tag of dynasty RB23, he offers a nice short term upside at a modest cost.

RB Rashard Mendenhall, Steelers - The Steelers have a phenomenal track record in the first round of the draft, having netted such players as Roethlisberger, Polamalu, Holmes, and Burress in recent years. When the Steelers take someone in the first round, he almost always becomes a solid player. Rashard Mendenhall didn't achieve the immediate success that many FF owners hoped for, but he's still only 21 years old and he appears to have the total package of football skills and physical talent needed to seize the starting job in Pittsburgh. Willie Parker is in the final year of his contract, meaning Mendenhall will be given every opportunity to prove his worth and become the man in this backfield. I think he'll be starting no later than 2010. He's currently ranked as the #32 dynasty RB by the FBG staff. He probably won't fall that far in most drafts, but he's a tremendous value in the RB20-RB25 range once the quality starters are all spoken for.

RB Shonn Greene, Jets - Greene is a classic battering ram in the mold of Rudi Johnson or Stephen Davis. The Jets traded up to get him at the top of the third round this year, which indicates to me that they think he can step in and become their franchise back of the future. Thomas Jones is in the last year of his contract and Leon Washington is probably better suited to a complementary role, so I look for Greene to emerge as the starter here in 2010. He doesn't have the elite speed of Tomlinson or Peterson and his limited receiving skills might put a low cap on his upside, but he has all the makings of a quality war horse who can grind out multiple 1200+ yard rushing seasons and become a steady RB2 for FF teams. Currently ranked as the dynasty RB30 by FBG, Greene is an ideal RB3 for FF teams.

WR Percy Harvin, Vikings - I have Harvin ranked as the third best rookie in this class behind Moreno and Crabtree. Arguably the best skill position talent in the draft, Harvin still faces skepticism from the FF community for a variety of reasons. Some people say he's a RB/WR tweener, but at 5'11" 192 pounds, he's built almost identically to Laveranues Coles. Some people say he's injury prone, but much of that can be attributed to taking carries out of the backfield, something the vast majority of WR prospects weren't asked to do. Some people say he's a character risk, but he's known as an extremely competitive individual who works hard and plays hard. I expect Harvin to be one of the most impressive rookies in this class immediately and I think he's a great value in dynasty drafts at the WR38 spot where he's currently ranked by the FBG staff. I would take him over 10-15 of the guys ranked ahead of him.

WR Devin Hester, Bears - Everyone knows Hester's name because of his exploits as a return man, but most people probably don't realize that he might be on the cusp of breaking out as a WR. Hester is a raw talent who didn't get much experience at WR in college because his coaches were constantly moving him around. However, he has shown big improvement as an offensive player over the past two seasons, logging 30 catches in his final 8 games last year. Now he's entering his fateful third season as a receiver and he finally has a capable QB at the helm in Jay Cutler. Could he be this year's Eddie Royal? He looks like the most talented WR on the roster by a wide margin, so 1,000+ yards is not out of the question. He's currently ranked as the #60 dynasty WR by FBG. He won't fall that far in shark drafts, but he's still a monster value play as a WR4-WR5 with WR2 upside.

WR Brandon Tate, Patriots - Tate is a gifted prospect who was just coming into his own last season at North Carolina before suffering a catastrophic knee injury. Outside of the 6 WRs drafted in the first round of this year's NFL draft, I think he has the highest ceiling of any pass catcher in the draft. He's a fluid player with good mobility and hands. With Randy Moss on the wrong side of 30, Tate could emerge as the New England's new Troy Brown a couple years down the road. His price tag is surprisingly high as the current WR45 on the FBG staff rankings, but he'll slip farther than that in many drafts and is an excellent gamble as a long term developmental WR for your bench.

TE Martellus Bennett, Cowboys - Martellus Bennett is the Jonathan Stewart of RBs, but he can be had hundreds of picks later in your drafts. Most people don't know about him and those that do are scared of the fact that he's stuck behind Jason Witten. Take advantage of this situation and grab him cheap. Bennett is a gifted athlete in the mold of Antonio Gates. In addition to being a top football recruit out of high school, he was also one of the top basketball recruits in the country. He was such a good prospect that he was given a second round NBA draft grade. He ultimately decided on football and became a 2nd round pick by the Dallas Cowboys. He's a raw talent who flashed good potential in spot duty last season. There are those around the Cowboys organization who believe he has the potential to become one of the top 2-3 TEs in the entire league. Nevertheless, he routinely slips out of the top 20 TEs in dynasty drafts. Mammoth value at his ADP. He's currently ranked as the 28th best dynasty TE by FBG.

and thread

 

[Liquid Tension]

Mike Mayock said something interesting on the second day of the draft. Basically, he said that there are two kinds of players available in the mid-late rounds: guys with borderline physical tools who were great college players and guys with ideal physical tools who were underachievers in college. I think the same thing applies in rookie drafts.The guys who are elite athletes and elite college players come off the board early. Hakeem Nicks, Percy Harvin, Knowshon Moreno. You're not going to get those guys in the second round of your rookie draft. What you're left to choose from is players who are flawed in some way. Guys like Mohamed Massaquoi and Patrick Turner have NFL bodies, but neither was a particularly good college player. Guys like Jarett Dillard, Mike Thomas, and Austin Collie were great college players, but they have some physical flaws that might prevent them from succeeding at the pro level.Which group should you favor? I tend to subscribe to the idea that "projects" always fail. Quincy Morgan, Tyrone Calico, Jerome Simpson. These guys come along every year and trick people because they have a huge "upside." The thing is, if you can't catch a football, you're not suddenly going to develop focus, coordination, and good hands. You either have them or you don't. At the same time, not all great college players pan out. I think you have to look at each individual prospect and ask two questions:1. Is he a good football player? 2. Does he have physical gifts on par with successful pro players at his position?In the case of Dillard, he has as much football talent as any WR in the class. Where he falls short is in the physical gifts department. He's slender and he runs about a tenth of a second slower than he should. But he also has the highest vertical leap and the longest broad jump in the entire WR draft class, so it's not like he's a terrible athlete. I would probably place him behind guys like Brandon Tate and Mike Thomas (who have a skill/athleticism combo on par with anyone else in the draft), but I'd probably place him ahead of the underachieving projects like Mohamed Massaquoi, Patrick Turner, and Derrick Williams. You can rank him somewhere in the 20-30 range among rookies and still get him in many of your drafts without being forced to reach for him in favor of can't-miss prospects.

Excellent post EBF.I said upthread I'm keeping an open mind with Dillard. We have to do that or we're foolish. If not, you never see (as listed above) guys like Wes Welker, Marques Colston, Donald Driver, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Lance Moore, Kevin Walter, and Derrick Mason until someone else owns them.All I was doing in my Dillard comments was putting some perspective on Dillard (call it devil's advocate if you like), based on how the non-FBG world is viewing him. I really do think we on this message board have a bandwagon mentality, following strong opinions of highly regarded people here (you are one of those highly regarded people, Bloom is another). So, consider my posts in this thread just a caution for people drafting later this summer to realize there are a lot of folks not nearly as high on Dillard as would be suggested by this FBG frame of reference we all share.I saw in our HyperActive rookie drafts last weekend (made up of FBG staff and message boarders) that Dillard went high, much higher than non-FBG sources suggest he would go. Again, a consensus of 11 draft services had him the 18th WR. Millions of dollars pumped into team scouting resulted in him being drafted as the 21st WR. Time will tell on Dillard. His is a career I'll be especially interested to follow, given the wide differences of opinion on him.

Nice discussions Couch and EBF

 

[EBF]

Excellent post EBF.I said upthread I'm keeping an open mind with Dillard. We have to do that or we're foolish. If not, you never see (as listed above) guys like Wes Welker, Marques Colston, Donald Driver, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Lance Moore, Kevin Walter, and Derrick Mason until someone else owns them.All I was doing in my Dillard comments was putting some perspective on Dillard (call it devil's advocate if you like), based on how the non-FBG world is viewing him. I really do think we on this message board have a bandwagon mentality, following strong opinions of highly regarded people here (you are one of those highly regarded people, Bloom is another). So, consider my posts in this thread just a caution for people drafting later this summer to realize there are a lot of folks not nearly as high on Dillard as would be suggested by this FBG frame of reference we all share.I saw in our HyperActive rookie drafts last weekend (made up of FBG staff and message boarders) that Dillard went high, much higher than non-FBG sources suggest he would go. Again, a consensus of 11 draft services had him the 18th WR. Millions of dollars pumped into team scouting resulted in him being drafted as the 21st WR. Time will tell on Dillard. His is a career I'll be especially interested to follow, given the wide differences of opinion on him.

Yea, I understand where you're coming from and I don't think you're off base.My advice to Dillard fans is to pick him at a spot where you won't be passing up elite talents in order to get him. The 20-30 range seems about right since that's still early enough to get him and you won't be reaching to grab him in favor of drastically superior gambles (most of the players picked outside the top 20-25 in your rookie drafts won't do squat in the NFL).

 

[loose circuits]

Many of you know I'm very high on Mike Walker JAC, and I don't see Holt's arrival (or the two added rookies) impeding his future stardom.

Here's a mini camp update on him from jaguars.com Senior Editor Vic Ketchman, dated today, answering a question from a fan. Note the comment regarding the knees (it frustrates me to no end that people on this board won't let go of the fallacy that he still has knee problems).

http://www.jaguars.com/news/article.aspx?id=7847

Will from Jacksonville

How is Mike Walker looking? I feel if he takes a big step this year our wide receiving corps will get a huge boost.

Vic: Mike turned in another outstanding series of underwear performances. He was, in my opinion, the most impressive receiver in mini-camp and I saw no wrap of any kind on either knee. This was the best I have seen him run in successive practices.

If Thomas and Dillard develop as well as I think they will and Walker's knee issues truly are a fallacy this could be a lethal trio for years to come. Holt's probably going to limit either Walker or Dillard in the short term (one year? two years? half season? I don't know) but I don't see Northcutt holding Thomas off for long.

I think Thomas is going to be a terrific career slot receiver and will supplant Northcutt before the end of 2009.I see Holt as co-#1 in 2009 to start out, but it will become evident Walker should be the go to guy at this stage of their respective careers. There are lots of cases where fans think 32-33 year old guys changing teams will return to stats of their glory years when they were 27-30, but find they are capable of being no more than complementary players. Holt admits himself he's lost a lot of his speed, and I didn't see the ability to separate last year that he used to have. I see him starting in 2009 and probably 2010, but that's about it. Who replaces Holt after that? I don't know.

This board is bonkers over Dillard, and I think that has much to do with Bloom's love of Dillard and the great respect we all have for Bloom. He hit big time on 4th rounder Brandon Marshall, and we all remember that. Bloom has Dillard as his #7 rookie WR. But I'm just not so sure Dillard will be a starter in this league. He was passed on by 32 teams for 143 picks in 5 rounds, and 21 WRs were taken ahead of him. He was rated the consensus 18th WR on Bob Sorter's aggregation of 11 draft services, and the 18th WR went in the late 4th round. John Hansen of FantasyGuru.com doesn't rank Dillard among the top 20 post-draft keeper rookie prospects. Googling around the 'net suggest his upside is as a career #3 receiver. God bless Bloom if he's right about Dillard and I'm going to be open minded about him. However, the FBG board love for him may be a case of Bloom-led group think going on, and my expectations aren't nearly as high as others here.

are you talking about the same Torry Holt? you were making a lot of since until you said that, then i quite reading, too distracted...

“To be able to catch 64 passes in a disgruntled organization was actually pretty good. All this talk about my decline is false,” said Holt, who claims he can play “another six years.”

http://www.jaguars.com/news/article.aspx?i...&source=rss

 

[Couch Potato]

I think Thomas is going to be a terrific career slot receiver and will supplant Northcutt before the end of 2009.

I see Holt as co-#1 in 2009 to start out, but it will become evident Walker should be the go to guy at this stage of their respective careers. There are lots of cases where fans think 32-33 year old guys changing teams will return to stats of their glory years when they were 27-30, but find they are capable of being no more than complementary players. Holt admits himself he's lost a lot of his speed, and I didn't see the ability to separate last year that he used to have. I see him starting in 2009 and probably 2010, but that's about it. Who replaces Holt after that? I don't know.

This board is bonkers over Dillard, and I think that has much to do with Bloom's love of Dillard and the great respect we all have for Bloom. He hit big time on 4th rounder Brandon Marshall, and we all remember that. Bloom has Dillard as his #7 rookie WR. But I'm just not so sure Dillard will be a starter in this league. He was passed on by 32 teams for 143 picks in 5 rounds, and 21 WRs were taken ahead of him. He was rated the consensus 18th WR on Bob Sorter's aggregation of 11 draft services, and the 18th WR went in the late 4th round. John Hansen of FantasyGuru.com doesn't rank Dillard among the top 20 post-draft keeper rookie prospects. Googling around the 'net suggest his upside is as a career #3 receiver. God bless Bloom if he's right about Dillard and I'm going to be open minded about him. However, the FBG board love for him may be a case of Bloom-led group think going on, and my expectations aren't nearly as high as others here.

are you talking about the same Torry Holt? you were making a lot of since until you said that, then i quite reading, too distracted...

“To be able to catch 64 passes in a disgruntled organization was actually pretty good. All this talk about my decline is false,” said Holt, who claims he can play “another six years.”

http://www.jaguars.com/news/article.aspx?i...&source=rss

The part you are disagreeing with is what you bolded, " Holt admits himself he's lost a lot of his speed"?Here's his quote:

http://www.jacksonville.com/sports/footbal...and_for_jaguars

"My numbers drop, and now people are saying I've lost a step. Well, maybe I have. This will be my 11th season. Am I running the same way I did 10 years ago? Absolutely not, but I can still play at a high level."

As for him thinking today that he can play another 6 years, that's meaningless. None of these guys at 33 know what their bodies or motivations will be like 6 years later, at 39. A player is usually the last one to believe he can't get it done any more, and that's why most are cut while still trying to hang on rather than just retire on their own.

I give him about 2 years as a starting caliber - nowhere near elite - WR. After that he's just hanging on.

 

[loose circuits]

I think Thomas is going to be a terrific career slot receiver and will supplant Northcutt before the end of 2009.

I see Holt as co-#1 in 2009 to start out, but it will become evident Walker should be the go to guy at this stage of their respective careers. There are lots of cases where fans think 32-33 year old guys changing teams will return to stats of their glory years when they were 27-30, but find they are capable of being no more than complementary players. Holt admits himself he's lost a lot of his speed, and I didn't see the ability to separate last year that he used to have. I see him starting in 2009 and probably 2010, but that's about it. Who replaces Holt after that? I don't know.

This board is bonkers over Dillard, and I think that has much to do with Bloom's love of Dillard and the great respect we all have for Bloom. He hit big time on 4th rounder Brandon Marshall, and we all remember that. Bloom has Dillard as his #7 rookie WR. But I'm just not so sure Dillard will be a starter in this league. He was passed on by 32 teams for 143 picks in 5 rounds, and 21 WRs were taken ahead of him. He was rated the consensus 18th WR on Bob Sorter's aggregation of 11 draft services, and the 18th WR went in the late 4th round. John Hansen of FantasyGuru.com doesn't rank Dillard among the top 20 post-draft keeper rookie prospects. Googling around the 'net suggest his upside is as a career #3 receiver. God bless Bloom if he's right about Dillard and I'm going to be open minded about him. However, the FBG board love for him may be a case of Bloom-led group think going on, and my expectations aren't nearly as high as others here.

are you talking about the same Torry Holt? you were making a lot of since until you said that, then i quite reading, too distracted...

“To be able to catch 64 passes in a disgruntled organization was actually pretty good. All this talk about my decline is false,” said Holt, who claims he can play “another six years.”

http://www.jaguars.com/news/article.aspx?i...&source=rss

The part you are disagreeing with is what you bolded, " Holt admits himself he's lost a lot of his speed"?Here's his quote:

http://www.jacksonville.com/sports/footbal...and_for_jaguars

"My numbers drop, and now people are saying I've lost a step. Well, maybe I have. This will be my 11th season. Am I running the same way I did 10 years ago? Absolutely not, but I can still play at a high level."

As for him thinking today that he can play another 6 years, that's meaningless. None of these guys at 33 know what their bodies or motivations will be like 6 years later, at 39. A player is usually the last one to believe he can't get it done any more, and that's why most are cut while still trying to hang on rather than just retire on their own.

I give him about 2 years as a starting caliber - nowhere near elite - WR. After that he's just hanging on.

I just don't think that he's admitting that he's 'slower' lets not go overboard. I agree that the players are the last to know, but Torry Holt was in an awful situation. Garrard made Matt Jones look like a legit NFL WR. I think Holt could be fine for this year, but we agree on everything else you were saying...he could be gone as early as next yearI personally like Mike Thomas more than Jarrett Dillard, but that's just based off reading profiles and what not. Thomas has a higher ceiling and he went at 2.03 in my draft. I actually traded out of the pick and am now kind of regretting it- got Bernard Scott & Peerman in return though. Dillard went at 3.09 and many of the guys in that league spend time here- Massaquoi, Wallace, Barden, Iglesias, Collie, Tate, and Butler were all drafted ahead of him (none by me cause I already got Robiskie & Crabtree). Throw in Derrick Williams and I think those guys are all pretty even in rounds 2-3...so I wouldn't reach for Dillard

 

[Beefeaters]

TE Randy McMichael STL - He is going to be a top 10 TE guaranteed, with the potential to break the top 5 TE in 2009. Buy low this off-season and sell high next off-season.

 

[BuckeyeArt]

TE Randy McMichael STL - He is going to be a top 10 TE guaranteed, with the potential to break the top 5 TE in 2009. Buy low this off-season and sell high next off-season.

He's 30 years old. At best, you're buying and selling low. There's absolutely no way he breaks top 5 and being the 10th ranked TE isn't anything special.

 

[THE UNDERCOVER BROTHA]

Sleepers: (some one to wake up out of nowhere)

Laurent Robinson

Devin Hester

J.Gage

L.Sweed

M.Bradley

D.Clowney

M.Austin

I would say those guys right there for starters.

 

[Ron_Mexico]

TE Randy McMichael STL - He is going to be a top 10 TE guaranteed, with the potential to break the top 5 TE in 2009. Buy low this off-season and sell high next off-season.

I just can't see this becoming remotely close to possible.Cool to go out on that limb, though.

 

[Biabreakable]

I think Thomas is going to be a terrific career slot receiver and will supplant Northcutt before the end of 2009.

I see Holt as co-#1 in 2009 to start out, but it will become evident Walker should be the go to guy at this stage of their respective careers. There are lots of cases where fans think 32-33 year old guys changing teams will return to stats of their glory years when they were 27-30, but find they are capable of being no more than complementary players. Holt admits himself he's lost a lot of his speed, and I didn't see the ability to separate last year that he used to have. I see him starting in 2009 and probably 2010, but that's about it. Who replaces Holt after that? I don't know.

This board is bonkers over Dillard, and I think that has much to do with Bloom's love of Dillard and the great respect we all have for Bloom. He hit big time on 4th rounder Brandon Marshall, and we all remember that. Bloom has Dillard as his #7 rookie WR. But I'm just not so sure Dillard will be a starter in this league. He was passed on by 32 teams for 143 picks in 5 rounds, and 21 WRs were taken ahead of him. He was rated the consensus 18th WR on Bob Sorter's aggregation of 11 draft services, and the 18th WR went in the late 4th round. John Hansen of FantasyGuru.com doesn't rank Dillard among the top 20 post-draft keeper rookie prospects. Googling around the 'net suggest his upside is as a career #3 receiver. God bless Bloom if he's right about Dillard and I'm going to be open minded about him. However, the FBG board love for him may be a case of Bloom-led group think going on, and my expectations aren't nearly as high as others here.

are you talking about the same Torry Holt? you were making a lot of since until you said that, then i quite reading, too distracted...

“To be able to catch 64 passes in a disgruntled organization was actually pretty good. All this talk about my decline is false,” said Holt, who claims he can play “another six years.”

http://www.jaguars.com/news/article.aspx?i...&source=rss

The part you are disagreeing with is what you bolded, " Holt admits himself he's lost a lot of his speed"?Here's his quote:

http://www.jacksonville.com/sports/footbal...and_for_jaguars

"My numbers drop, and now people are saying I've lost a step. Well, maybe I have. This will be my 11th season. Am I running the same way I did 10 years ago? Absolutely not, but I can still play at a high level."

As for him thinking today that he can play another 6 years, that's meaningless. None of these guys at 33 know what their bodies or motivations will be like 6 years later, at 39. A player is usually the last one to believe he can't get it done any more, and that's why most are cut while still trying to hang on rather than just retire on their own.

I give him about 2 years as a starting caliber - nowhere near elite - WR. After that he's just hanging on.

1st of all I did really like the Jaguars draft.It is a high opportunity situation for the 2 rookie WR but there are still problems here. One is they will compete with each other for playing time short term. Holt and Northcutt are solid veteran WR who will likely start for the next 2 years for the Jaguars. The team is ball control oriented and 3WR sets not likely a staple formation for them. So not that much opportunity to play. The one who wins the slot position will get to develop more. If that is Thomas it doesen't mean that Dillard won't win a starting slot later. But like Mike Walker you won't really know what you have for quite awhile most likely.

I think Dillard can compete to start outside better than Thomas because of his leaping ability and slight height advantage. I think Northcutt is the 2nd best WR on the team right now so I would expect him to win the slot. Dillard could compete for this poisition also though so Thomas has 3 players to contend with.

If Dillard can beat out Walker and play outside he probably would only be at best the 4th target for Garrard with Holt/MJD/Northcutt likely to get more total targets. At least in year one.

You should not be expecting to use any but a few rookie WR in year one and look for them to earn more playing time in year 2-3. I think Dillard has a slightly clearer path to playing time and Thomas will be ST. Of course there will be news that could totaly change my perspective on this but that is how I am seeing it right now. Would love to hear Jaguar fan feedback on this though.

In any case both even if they earn playing time will likely not score enough points to be more than replacement level players over the next 2-3 years. So I wouldn't make a big investment into either.

If only one of these guys was in this situation instead of two I would probably like the guy a bit more because he wasn't competing with another potentialy talented player. And it also kind of forces you to make a stand on one over the other. It bumps both down my list knowing they have another guy to beat out.

 

[MAC_32]

Mike Mayock said something interesting on the second day of the draft. Basically, he said that there are two kinds of players available in the mid-late rounds: guys with borderline physical tools who were great college players and guys with ideal physical tools who were underachievers in college. I think the same thing applies in rookie drafts.The guys who are elite athletes and elite college players come off the board early. Hakeem Nicks, Percy Harvin, Knowshon Moreno. You're not going to get those guys in the second round of your rookie draft. What you're left to choose from is players who are flawed in some way. Guys like Mohamed Massaquoi and Patrick Turner have NFL bodies, but neither was a particularly good college player. Guys like Jarett Dillard, Mike Thomas, and Austin Collie were great college players, but they have some physical flaws that might prevent them from succeeding at the pro level.Which group should you favor? I tend to subscribe to the idea that "projects" always fail. Quincy Morgan, Tyrone Calico, Jerome Simpson. These guys come along every year and trick people because they have a huge "upside." The thing is, if you can't catch a football, you're not suddenly going to develop focus, coordination, and good hands. You either have them or you don't. At the same time, not all great college players pan out. I think you have to look at each individual prospect and ask two questions:1. Is he a good football player? 2. Does he have physical gifts on par with successful pro players at his position?In the case of Dillard, he has as much football talent as any WR in the class. Where he falls short is in the physical gifts department. He's slender and he runs about a tenth of a second slower than he should. But he also has the highest vertical leap and the longest broad jump in the entire WR draft class, so it's not like he's a terrible athlete. I would probably place him behind guys like Brandon Tate and Mike Thomas (who have a skill/athleticism combo on par with anyone else in the draft), but I'd probably place him ahead of the underachieving projects like Mohamed Massaquoi, Patrick Turner, and Derrick Williams. You can rank him somewhere in the 20-30 range among rookies and still get him in many of your drafts without being forced to reach for him in favor of can't-miss prospects.

VERY :(

 

[Poppa]

 

[JAA]

Edwards presents good value when TO is rostered on the Bills. Otherwsie you would be hurting with him in your starting lineup. Can he even stay healthy?

I love your Mendenhall love EBF. love it

 

[Flea Flicker]

Some non-rookie sleepers and/or value picks...

* Trent Edwards - A QB rating jump to 85.4 in his 2nd season, now adds TO as a target. TO helped undrafted Romo look good. A nice value as QB2 for a QB3 price.

* Kevin Smith - Took the Lions too long last season to figure out they should be giving him the ball more. Won't happen this year. On 0-16 team, averaged 4.1 YPC, and in last 8 games went for 671 on the ground and added 15 catches for an 8.3 average. A low RB1 for the price of a low RB2.

* Jamaal Charles - Explosive when he had the ball. Could provide some Jerious Norwood-like value this year with the opportunity to step up even more. Could be a RB3 for the price of a RB5.

* Felix Jones - Like Charles, but even better. Much more costly to acquire though since he is no secret.

* Ted Ginn - Honestly, I've never been a fan of his, but he adds up as someone to watch for me. Improvement last year, 14.1 YPC, prominent role in offense, just needs to find the endzone more.

* Jerricho Cotchery - Potentially volatile situation until another starting WR is identified, but Cotch might see a spike in targets. Looks like an affordable WR2.

A few bargain bin buys / lottery tickets (in no particular order):

* Vince Young - Kerry Collins turns 37 this year. VY will mature, and who knows, maybe he makes a nice pairing with Kenny Britt.

* Lorenzo Booker - Maybe LeSean's McCoy's disappointing pro day really is an indicator? Then maybe Booker takes advantage.

* James Jones - Undeniable talent in a depth chart logjam.

* Pierre Garcon - Has a shot to be Peyton's WR3.

* David Anderson - Could be Welker-lite. Should see increased role as WR3 with Texans.

* Dwayne Jarrett - Still think the talent is there, just needs to get right between the earholes.

* Harry Douglas - Shhh... 13.9 YPC. Excellent handcuff, btw.

* Andre Davis - Speaking of handcuffs, a must-have for Andre Johnson owners.

* Johnnie Lee Higgins - Can you tell I like YPCs of young WRs? JLH posted 16.6 last year, incl. 12-174-3 in last three games.

* Nate Burleson - Should return to form at some point. Stash him.

 

[MAC_32]

Given how much I've read re Trent Edwards being a potential sleeper (not just here) I don't think he's going to be a good value play come August, in fact he may be over priced.

For those baseball fans out there I'd equate what I expect to happen to Edwards to what did happen to Chris Davis.

 

[Multiple Scores]

Mike Mayock said something interesting on the second day of the draft. Basically, he said that there are two kinds of players available in the mid-late rounds: guys with borderline physical tools who were great college players and guys with ideal physical tools who were underachievers in college. I think the same thing applies in rookie drafts.The guys who are elite athletes and elite college players come off the board early. Hakeem Nicks, Percy Harvin, Knowshon Moreno. You're not going to get those guys in the second round of your rookie draft. What you're left to choose from is players who are flawed in some way. Guys like Mohamed Massaquoi and Patrick Turner have NFL bodies, but neither was a particularly good college player. Guys like Jarett Dillard, Mike Thomas, and Austin Collie were great college players, but they have some physical flaws that might prevent them from succeeding at the pro level.Which group should you favor? I tend to subscribe to the idea that "projects" always fail. Quincy Morgan, Tyrone Calico, Jerome Simpson. These guys come along every year and trick people because they have a huge "upside." The thing is, if you can't catch a football, you're not suddenly going to develop focus, coordination, and good hands. You either have them or you don't. At the same time, not all great college players pan out. I think you have to look at each individual prospect and ask two questions:1. Is he a good football player? 2. Does he have physical gifts on par with successful pro players at his position?In the case of Dillard, he has as much football talent as any WR in the class. Where he falls short is in the physical gifts department. He's slender and he runs about a tenth of a second slower than he should. But he also has the highest vertical leap and the longest broad jump in the entire WR draft class, so it's not like he's a terrible athlete. I would probably place him behind guys like Brandon Tate and Mike Thomas (who have a skill/athleticism combo on par with anyone else in the draft), but I'd probably place him ahead of the underachieving projects like Mohamed Massaquoi, Patrick Turner, and Derrick Williams. You can rank him somewhere in the 20-30 range among rookies and still get him in many of your drafts without being forced to reach for him in favor of can't-miss prospects.

Excellent post EBF.I said upthread I'm keeping an open mind with Dillard. We have to do that or we're foolish. If not, you never see (as listed above) guys like Wes Welker, Marques Colston, Donald Driver, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Lance Moore, Kevin Walter, and Derrick Mason until someone else owns them.All I was doing in my Dillard comments was putting some perspective on Dillard (call it devil's advocate if you like), based on how the non-FBG world is viewing him. I really do think we on this message board have a bandwagon mentality, following strong opinions of highly regarded people here (you are one of those highly regarded people, Bloom is another). So, consider my posts in this thread just a caution for people drafting later this summer to realize there are a lot of folks not nearly as high on Dillard as would be suggested by this FBG frame of reference we all share.I saw in our HyperActive rookie drafts last weekend (made up of FBG staff and message boarders) that Dillard went high, much higher than non-FBG sources suggest he would go. Again, a consensus of 11 draft services had him the 18th WR. Millions of dollars pumped into team scouting resulted in him being drafted as the 21st WR. Time will tell on Dillard. His is a career I'll be especially interested to follow, given the wide differences of opinion on him.

Must be wisdom in the East Bay water. I wrote pretty much the same thing about a week ago, boiled down to you can get Dillard in the late 3rd and beyond in non FBG leagues but will have to spend a mid-late 2nd in a league with a bunch of FBGers.

 

[coolnerd]

Mike Mayock said something interesting on the second day of the draft. Basically, he said that there are two kinds of players available in the mid-late rounds: guys with borderline physical tools who were great college players and guys with ideal physical tools who were underachievers in college. I think the same thing applies in rookie drafts.The guys who are elite athletes and elite college players come off the board early. Hakeem Nicks, Percy Harvin, Knowshon Moreno. You're not going to get those guys in the second round of your rookie draft. What you're left to choose from is players who are flawed in some way. Guys like Mohamed Massaquoi and Patrick Turner have NFL bodies, but neither was a particularly good college player. Guys like Jarett Dillard, Mike Thomas, and Austin Collie were great college players, but they have some physical flaws that might prevent them from succeeding at the pro level.Which group should you favor? I tend to subscribe to the idea that "projects" always fail. Quincy Morgan, Tyrone Calico, Jerome Simpson. These guys come along every year and trick people because they have a huge "upside." The thing is, if you can't catch a football, you're not suddenly going to develop focus, coordination, and good hands. You either have them or you don't. At the same time, not all great college players pan out. I think you have to look at each individual prospect and ask two questions:1. Is he a good football player? 2. Does he have physical gifts on par with successful pro players at his position?In the case of Dillard, he has as much football talent as any WR in the class. Where he falls short is in the physical gifts department. He's slender and he runs about a tenth of a second slower than he should. But he also has the highest vertical leap and the longest broad jump in the entire WR draft class, so it's not like he's a terrible athlete. I would probably place him behind guys like Brandon Tate and Mike Thomas (who have a skill/athleticism combo on par with anyone else in the draft), but I'd probably place him ahead of the underachieving projects like Mohamed Massaquoi, Patrick Turner, and Derrick Williams. You can rank him somewhere in the 20-30 range among rookies and still get him in many of your drafts without being forced to reach for him in favor of can't-miss prospects.

Excellent post EBF.I said upthread I'm keeping an open mind with Dillard. We have to do that or we're foolish. If not, you never see (as listed above) guys like Wes Welker, Marques Colston, Donald Driver, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Lance Moore, Kevin Walter, and Derrick Mason until someone else owns them.All I was doing in my Dillard comments was putting some perspective on Dillard (call it devil's advocate if you like), based on how the non-FBG world is viewing him. I really do think we on this message board have a bandwagon mentality, following strong opinions of highly regarded people here (you are one of those highly regarded people, Bloom is another). So, consider my posts in this thread just a caution for people drafting later this summer to realize there are a lot of folks not nearly as high on Dillard as would be suggested by this FBG frame of reference we all share.I saw in our HyperActive rookie drafts last weekend (made up of FBG staff and message boarders) that Dillard went high, much higher than non-FBG sources suggest he would go. Again, a consensus of 11 draft services had him the 18th WR. Millions of dollars pumped into team scouting resulted in him being drafted as the 21st WR. Time will tell on Dillard. His is a career I'll be especially interested to follow, given the wide differences of opinion on him.

Must be wisdom in the East Bay water. I wrote pretty much the same thing about a week ago, boiled down to you can get Dillard in the late 3rd and beyond in non FBG leagues but will have to spend a mid-late 2nd in a league with a bunch of FBGers.

The two biggest group think players in FBG drafts this year are Dillard (too high) and Coffee (too low).

 

[MAC_32]

Mike Mayock said something interesting on the second day of the draft. Basically, he said that there are two kinds of players available in the mid-late rounds: guys with borderline physical tools who were great college players and guys with ideal physical tools who were underachievers in college. I think the same thing applies in rookie drafts.The guys who are elite athletes and elite college players come off the board early. Hakeem Nicks, Percy Harvin, Knowshon Moreno. You're not going to get those guys in the second round of your rookie draft. What you're left to choose from is players who are flawed in some way. Guys like Mohamed Massaquoi and Patrick Turner have NFL bodies, but neither was a particularly good college player. Guys like Jarett Dillard, Mike Thomas, and Austin Collie were great college players, but they have some physical flaws that might prevent them from succeeding at the pro level.Which group should you favor? I tend to subscribe to the idea that "projects" always fail. Quincy Morgan, Tyrone Calico, Jerome Simpson. These guys come along every year and trick people because they have a huge "upside." The thing is, if you can't catch a football, you're not suddenly going to develop focus, coordination, and good hands. You either have them or you don't. At the same time, not all great college players pan out. I think you have to look at each individual prospect and ask two questions:1. Is he a good football player? 2. Does he have physical gifts on par with successful pro players at his position?In the case of Dillard, he has as much football talent as any WR in the class. Where he falls short is in the physical gifts department. He's slender and he runs about a tenth of a second slower than he should. But he also has the highest vertical leap and the longest broad jump in the entire WR draft class, so it's not like he's a terrible athlete. I would probably place him behind guys like Brandon Tate and Mike Thomas (who have a skill/athleticism combo on par with anyone else in the draft), but I'd probably place him ahead of the underachieving projects like Mohamed Massaquoi, Patrick Turner, and Derrick Williams. You can rank him somewhere in the 20-30 range among rookies and still get him in many of your drafts without being forced to reach for him in favor of can't-miss prospects.

Excellent post EBF.I said upthread I'm keeping an open mind with Dillard. We have to do that or we're foolish. If not, you never see (as listed above) guys like Wes Welker, Marques Colston, Donald Driver, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Lance Moore, Kevin Walter, and Derrick Mason until someone else owns them.All I was doing in my Dillard comments was putting some perspective on Dillard (call it devil's advocate if you like), based on how the non-FBG world is viewing him. I really do think we on this message board have a bandwagon mentality, following strong opinions of highly regarded people here (you are one of those highly regarded people, Bloom is another). So, consider my posts in this thread just a caution for people drafting later this summer to realize there are a lot of folks not nearly as high on Dillard as would be suggested by this FBG frame of reference we all share.I saw in our HyperActive rookie drafts last weekend (made up of FBG staff and message boarders) that Dillard went high, much higher than non-FBG sources suggest he would go. Again, a consensus of 11 draft services had him the 18th WR. Millions of dollars pumped into team scouting resulted in him being drafted as the 21st WR. Time will tell on Dillard. His is a career I'll be especially interested to follow, given the wide differences of opinion on him.

Must be wisdom in the East Bay water. I wrote pretty much the same thing about a week ago, boiled down to you can get Dillard in the late 3rd and beyond in non FBG leagues but will have to spend a mid-late 2nd in a league with a bunch of FBGers.

The two biggest group think players in FBG drafts this year are Dillard (too high) and Coffee (too low).

How high is Dillard going here? I got him at the beginning of the 4th this past weekend, I'd have taken him anytime in the 3rd after Mike Thomas fell off the board.I don't know how Coffee's being valued either, obviously, but I don't think that's a groupthink mistake, I think it was a San Francisco drafting mistake. Unless you're the Gore owner I don't think he's worth drafting at all outside of the absolute deepest of deep leagues.

 

[Multiple Scores]

Mike Mayock said something interesting on the second day of the draft. Basically, he said that there are two kinds of players available in the mid-late rounds: guys with borderline physical tools who were great college players and guys with ideal physical tools who were underachievers in college. I think the same thing applies in rookie drafts.The guys who are elite athletes and elite college players come off the board early. Hakeem Nicks, Percy Harvin, Knowshon Moreno. You're not going to get those guys in the second round of your rookie draft. What you're left to choose from is players who are flawed in some way. Guys like Mohamed Massaquoi and Patrick Turner have NFL bodies, but neither was a particularly good college player. Guys like Jarett Dillard, Mike Thomas, and Austin Collie were great college players, but they have some physical flaws that might prevent them from succeeding at the pro level.Which group should you favor? I tend to subscribe to the idea that "projects" always fail. Quincy Morgan, Tyrone Calico, Jerome Simpson. These guys come along every year and trick people because they have a huge "upside." The thing is, if you can't catch a football, you're not suddenly going to develop focus, coordination, and good hands. You either have them or you don't. At the same time, not all great college players pan out. I think you have to look at each individual prospect and ask two questions:1. Is he a good football player? 2. Does he have physical gifts on par with successful pro players at his position?In the case of Dillard, he has as much football talent as any WR in the class. Where he falls short is in the physical gifts department. He's slender and he runs about a tenth of a second slower than he should. But he also has the highest vertical leap and the longest broad jump in the entire WR draft class, so it's not like he's a terrible athlete. I would probably place him behind guys like Brandon Tate and Mike Thomas (who have a skill/athleticism combo on par with anyone else in the draft), but I'd probably place him ahead of the underachieving projects like Mohamed Massaquoi, Patrick Turner, and Derrick Williams. You can rank him somewhere in the 20-30 range among rookies and still get him in many of your drafts without being forced to reach for him in favor of can't-miss prospects.

Excellent post EBF.I said upthread I'm keeping an open mind with Dillard. We have to do that or we're foolish. If not, you never see (as listed above) guys like Wes Welker, Marques Colston, Donald Driver, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Lance Moore, Kevin Walter, and Derrick Mason until someone else owns them.All I was doing in my Dillard comments was putting some perspective on Dillard (call it devil's advocate if you like), based on how the non-FBG world is viewing him. I really do think we on this message board have a bandwagon mentality, following strong opinions of highly regarded people here (you are one of those highly regarded people, Bloom is another). So, consider my posts in this thread just a caution for people drafting later this summer to realize there are a lot of folks not nearly as high on Dillard as would be suggested by this FBG frame of reference we all share.I saw in our HyperActive rookie drafts last weekend (made up of FBG staff and message boarders) that Dillard went high, much higher than non-FBG sources suggest he would go. Again, a consensus of 11 draft services had him the 18th WR. Millions of dollars pumped into team scouting resulted in him being drafted as the 21st WR. Time will tell on Dillard. His is a career I'll be especially interested to follow, given the wide differences of opinion on him.

Must be wisdom in the East Bay water. I wrote pretty much the same thing about a week ago, boiled down to you can get Dillard in the late 3rd and beyond in non FBG leagues but will have to spend a mid-late 2nd in a league with a bunch of FBGers.

The two biggest group think players in FBG drafts this year are Dillard (too high) and Coffee (too low).

How high is Dillard going here? I got him at the beginning of the 4th this past weekend, I'd have taken him anytime in the 3rd after Mike Thomas fell off the board.I don't know how Coffee's being valued either, obviously, but I don't think that's a groupthink mistake, I think it was a San Francisco drafting mistake. Unless you're the Gore owner I don't think he's worth drafting at all outside of the absolute deepest of deep leagues.

Dillard is going mid-late 2nd in most leagues with lots of FBG guys.

 

[coolnerd]

The two biggest group think players in FBG drafts this year are Dillard (too high) and Coffee (too low).

How high is Dillard going here? I got him at the beginning of the 4th this past weekend, I'd have taken him anytime in the 3rd after Mike Thomas fell off the board.I don't know how Coffee's being valued either, obviously, but I don't think that's a groupthink mistake, I think it was a San Francisco drafting mistake. Unless you're the Gore owner I don't think he's worth drafting at all outside of the absolute deepest of deep leagues.

Glenn coffee was productive runner in the SE conference, and would have been considered by the Texans in the 3rd round if not taken by the 49ers. Apparrently, he was underrated by draft pundants, but not NFLers. http://www.houstontexans.com/news/Story.asp?story_id=5254

on if it was tough to bypass a running back as an offensive coordinator) “It was. It would’ve been tough at the beginning of the day for me personally, but those two guys (Shonne Greene and Glen Coffee) that went today were pretty good players, so that made it a little easier to go with this guy

The biggest knock I saw on him has been size, but apparently he is up to 210, and the Niners think he can carry 220 (can't find link at the moment).

 

[foxco]

The two biggest group think players in FBG drafts this year are Dillard (too high) and Coffee (too low).

How high is Dillard going here? I got him at the beginning of the 4th this past weekend, I'd have taken him anytime in the 3rd after Mike Thomas fell off the board.I don't know how Coffee's being valued either, obviously, but I don't think that's a groupthink mistake, I think it was a San Francisco drafting mistake. Unless you're the Gore owner I don't think he's worth drafting at all outside of the absolute deepest of deep leagues.

Glenn coffee was productive runner in the SE conference, and would have been considered by the Texans in the 3rd round if not taken by the 49ers. Apparrently, he was underrated by draft pundants, but not NFLers. http://www.houstontexans.com/news/Story.asp?story_id=5254

on if it was tough to bypass a running back as an offensive coordinator) “It was. It would’ve been tough at the beginning of the day for me personally, but those two guys (Shonne Greene and Glen Coffee) that went today were pretty good players, so that made it a little easier to go with this guy

The biggest knock I saw on him has been size, but apparently he is up to 210, and the Niners think he can carry 220 (can't find link at the moment).

What are the odds Kory Sheets ends up beating out Coffee?

 

[MAC_32]

Dillard is going mid-late 2nd in most leagues with lots of FBG guys.

Non IDP, early but I get it.IDP, that's a reach imho.

 

[MAC_32]

The two biggest group think players in FBG drafts this year are Dillard (too high) and Coffee (too low).

How high is Dillard going here? I got him at the beginning of the 4th this past weekend, I'd have taken him anytime in the 3rd after Mike Thomas fell off the board.I don't know how Coffee's being valued either, obviously, but I don't think that's a groupthink mistake, I think it was a San Francisco drafting mistake. Unless you're the Gore owner I don't think he's worth drafting at all outside of the absolute deepest of deep leagues.

Glenn coffee was productive runner in the SE conference, and would have been considered by the Texans in the 3rd round if not taken by the 49ers. Apparrently, he was underrated by draft pundants, but not NFLers. http://www.houstontexans.com/news/Story.asp?story_id=5254

on if it was tough to bypass a running back as an offensive coordinator) “It was. It would’ve been tough at the beginning of the day for me personally, but those two guys (Shonne Greene and Glen Coffee) that went today were pretty good players, so that made it a little easier to go with this guy

The biggest knock I saw on him has been size, but apparently he is up to 210, and the Niners think he can carry 220 (can't find link at the moment).

What are the odds Kory Sheets ends up beating out Coffee?

I think it's very possible, although he'll have to clearly separate himself due to where each was drafted. I really believe Coffee was more a product of his surroundings than anything else. My biggest concern re Coffee is his narrow lower body, I don't think he can withstand the pounding to be anything more than a backup so even if the incumbent were to get hurt (in this case, Gore) I'd think Coffee's sharing touches.

 

[Couch Potato]

Sorter's consensus of 11 draft services: Thomas WR#14, Dillard WR#18

Actual NFL draft: Thomas WR#16, Dillard WR#21

Bloom Post-draft rookie 100: Thomas WR#9, Dillard WR#7

In last week's HyperActive rookie drafts (separate 12 team conferences, 1 PPR scoring all positions):

HA1, Hyper Conference: Thomas WR#9, Dillard WR#12

HA1, Active Conference: Thomas WR#8, Dillard WR#9

HA2, Hyper Conference: Thomas WR#9, Dillard WR#13

HA2, Active Conference: Thomas WR#8, Dillard WR#12

HA3, Hyper Conference: Thomas WR#9, Dillard WR#13

HA3, Active Conference: Thomas WR#9, Dillard WR#12

Further, in the HyperActive 4 startup draft of vets and rookies:

HA4, Hyper Conference: Thomas WR#52 (9th rookie WR), Dillard WR#58 (10th rookie WR)

HA4, Active Conference: Thomas WR#54 (9th rookie WR), Dillard WR#57 (10th rookie WR)

Summary of 8 drafts-

Thomas - Draft services, NFL Draft, Bloom, Hyperactive: 14 / 16 / 9 / 8.75

Dillard - Draft services, NFL Draft, Bloom, Hyperactive: 18 / 21 / 7 / 11.37

In HA drafts Thomas went about 7 rookie WR spots higher than in the actual NFL draft, and Dillard almost 10 WR spots higher, due to what I'm calling the Bloom effect.

Now, I suppose Dillard owners in these 8 drafts may have all come to the conclusion on their own that he is worthy of drafting ahead of 10 WRs that the NFL had higher and 7 WRs that a consensus of 11 rating services had higher, but I doubt it. I'm assuming FBG guys were using the Bloom 100 at least to some extent as a draft guide. When comparing with 11 rating services, and sites like FantasyGuru.com (who doesn't put Dillard in the top 20 rookie WRs), and where Dillard was drafted by the NFL, it appears Bloom is the outlier. He's either done it again (kudos again on the Brandon Marshall call... but there was that Lorenzo Booker call too... oops), or a lot of FBG drafters are burning too high a pick on a WR with 5th round NFL value.

 

[Couch Potato]

As far as round is concerned, here's where they went in the rookie drafts (12 team leagues, but an extra pick in 1st round is awarded for toilet bowl winner. So, 2.01 is actually the 14th pick overall, not the 13th):

Dillard

2.11

2.06

2.12

2.08

2.12

2.11

Thomas

2.07

1.13

2.04

2.02

2.05

2.06

In the vet / rookie startup draft:

Dillard

12.05

12.01

Thomas

11.08

11.03

 

[ConstruxBoy]

I was proud to take Thomas at 1.13. You tell Mike Westbrook...er Mike Walker not to turn his back because Steve Smith...er Mike Thomas is going to nail him.

 

[Couch Potato]

I was proud to take Thomas at 1.13. You tell Mike Westbrook...er Mike Walker not to turn his back because Steve Smith...er Mike Thomas is going to nail him.

 

[EBF]

One thing that has to be taken account is the overall strength of the WR class. Cut out the six first rounders and you're left with the following group:

7 2 4 36 Brian Robiskie Browns Ohio State

8 2 18 50 Mohammed Massoquoi Browns Georgia

9 3 18 82 Derrick Williams Lions Penn State

10 3 19 83 Brandon Tate Patriots North Carolina

11 3 20 84 Mike Wallace Steelers Mississippi

12 3 21 85 Ramses Barden Giants Cal Poly

13 3 23 87 Patrick Turner Dolphins USC

14 3 27 91 Deon Butler Seahawks Penn State

15 3 35 99 Juaquin Iglesias Bears Oklahoma

16 4 7 107 Mike Thomas Jaguars Arizona

17 4 8 108 Brian Hartline Dolphins Ohio State

18 4 24 124 Louis Murphy Raiders Florida

19 4 27 127 Austin Collie Colts Brigham Young

20 5 4 140 Johnny Knox Bears Abilene Christian

21 5 5 141 Kenny McKinley Broncos South Carolina

22 5 8 144 Jarett Dillard Jaguars Rice

I like Brandon Tate, but the prospect of drafting most of these other guys makes me a little . This is why I don't have a big problem with teams reaching for Dillard or Thomas in the WR8-10 range. You're not passing up any great players to do so. The odds definitely favor the higher picks, but the overwhelming majority of the players on this list will fail. Might as well take the guy you like.

As for Glen Coffee, 3rd round picks succeed about 30% of the time. I tend to think he's in the other 70%.

 

[FUBAR]

One thing that has to be taken account is the overall strength of the WR class. Cut out the six first rounders and you're left with the following group: 7 2 4 36 Brian Robiskie Browns Ohio State 8 2 18 50 Mohammed Massoquoi Browns Georgia 9 3 18 82 Derrick Williams Lions Penn State 10 3 19 83 Brandon Tate Patriots North Carolina 11 3 20 84 Mike Wallace Steelers Mississippi 12 3 21 85 Ramses Barden Giants Cal Poly 13 3 23 87 Patrick Turner Dolphins USC 14 3 27 91 Deon Butler Seahawks Penn State 15 3 35 99 Juaquin Iglesias Bears Oklahoma 16 4 7 107 Mike Thomas Jaguars Arizona 17 4 8 108 Brian Hartline Dolphins Ohio State 18 4 24 124 Louis Murphy Raiders Florida 19 4 27 127 Austin Collie Colts Brigham Young 20 5 4 140 Johnny Knox Bears Abilene Christian 21 5 5 141 Kenny McKinley Broncos South Carolina 22 5 8 144 Jarett Dillard Jaguars RiceI like Brandon Tate, but the prospect of drafting most of these other guys makes me a little . This is why I don't have a big problem with teams reaching for Dillard or Thomas in the WR8-10 range. You're not passing up any great players to do so. The odds definitely favor the higher picks, but the overwhelming majority of the players on this list will fail. Might as well take the guy you like.

I like some of these talents, but truth be told, you could randomly list these guys and nobody would know the difference.

 

[lyon812]

One thing that has to be taken account is the overall strength of the WR class. Cut out the six first rounders and you're left with the following group: 7 2 4 36 Brian Robiskie Browns Ohio State 8 2 18 50 Mohammed Massoquoi Browns Georgia 9 3 18 82 Derrick Williams Lions Penn State 10 3 19 83 Brandon Tate Patriots North Carolina 11 3 20 84 Mike Wallace Steelers Mississippi 12 3 21 85 Ramses Barden Giants Cal Poly 13 3 23 87 Patrick Turner Dolphins USC 14 3 27 91 Deon Butler Seahawks Penn State 15 3 35 99 Juaquin Iglesias Bears Oklahoma 16 4 7 107 Mike Thomas Jaguars Arizona 17 4 8 108 Brian Hartline Dolphins Ohio State 18 4 24 124 Louis Murphy Raiders Florida 19 4 27 127 Austin Collie Colts Brigham Young 20 5 4 140 Johnny Knox Bears Abilene Christian 21 5 5 141 Kenny McKinley Broncos South Carolina 22 5 8 144 Jarett Dillard Jaguars RiceI like Brandon Tate, but the prospect of drafting most of these other guys makes me a little :X . This is why I don't have a big problem with teams reaching for Dillard or Thomas in the WR8-10 range. You're not passing up any great players to do so. The odds definitely favor the higher picks, but the overwhelming majority of the players on this list will fail. Might as well take the guy you like.

The value is so equal between most of these that I don't see a problem going for your personal favorite, the one you think is better than the rest. For me, that's Thomas, since I put Robiskie in the tier before these guys. I've also seen a large number of Tate, Dillard, and Collie fans. I don't think there's a right or wrong choice as long as you're happy with it.

 

[coolnerd]

One thing that has to be taken account is the overall strength of the WR class. Cut out the six first rounders and you're left with the following group:

7 2 4 36 Brian Robiskie Browns Ohio State

8 2 18 50 Mohammed Massoquoi Browns Georgia

9 3 18 82 Derrick Williams Lions Penn State

10 3 19 83 Brandon Tate Patriots North Carolina

11 3 20 84 Mike Wallace Steelers Mississippi

12 3 21 85 Ramses Barden Giants Cal Poly

13 3 23 87 Patrick Turner Dolphins USC

14 3 27 91 Deon Butler Seahawks Penn State

15 3 35 99 Juaquin Iglesias Bears Oklahoma

16 4 7 107 Mike Thomas Jaguars Arizona

17 4 8 108 Brian Hartline Dolphins Ohio State

18 4 24 124 Louis Murphy Raiders Florida

19 4 27 127 Austin Collie Colts Brigham Young

20 5 4 140 Johnny Knox Bears Abilene Christian

21 5 5 141 Kenny McKinley Broncos South Carolina

22 5 8 144 Jarett Dillard Jaguars Rice

I like Brandon Tate, but the prospect of drafting most of these other guys makes me a little . This is why I don't have a big problem with teams reaching for Dillard or Thomas in the WR8-10 range. You're not passing up any great players to do so. The odds definitely favor the higher picks, but the overwhelming majority of the players on this list will fail. Might as well take the guy you like.

As for Glen Coffee, 3rd round picks succeed about 30% of the time. I tend to think he's in the other 70%.

I am guessing that 30% for a thrid round RB is better than whatever it is for a 5th round WR. We as a group we (FBGs) are drafting another 3rd round RB (Grene) in the top 10 picks overall and doing so w/o question that it is the propoer move. Not considering that people maybe right or wrong about the talents of Coffee or Greene, but the 30% applies to both. I know there are good handful of people who watch college football and do draw their own conclusions, but I think especially in a mediocore at best overall class like this there should be more variation on both Dillard and Coffee than I am see in FBG dominated leagues.

 

[EBF]

I am guessing that 30% for a thrid round RB is better than whatever it is for a 5th round WR. We as a group we (FBGs) are drafting another 3rd round RB (Grene) in the top 10 picks overall and doing so w/o question that it is the propoer move. Not considering that people maybe right or wrong about the talents of Coffee or Greene, but the 30% applies to both. I know there are good handful of people who watch college football and do draw their own conclusions, but I think especially in a mediocore at best overall class like this there should be more variation on both Dillard and Coffee than I am see in FBG dominated leagues.

I think you're right to a certain extent, but I also think there's often a good reason why astute owners favor one player over another. Darrius Heyward-Bey was the first WR drafted, but he has been picked behind Crabtree, Maclin, Nicks, and Harvin in every single one of my drafts so far. Why are so many owners willing to bet against the odds and take players who were lower picks in the NFL draft? I think the answer is pretty clear. Everyone looks at Oakland's Heyward-Bey pick and understands it in context: the Raiders are a train wreck of a team and they often reach for marginal prospects who have great speed. So while DHB was the first WR chosen, that doesn't mean we should give him the benefit of the doubt and automatically make him the first WR chosen in our rookie drafts. That's basically the same thing people are doing with Coffee/Greene. I think Coffee might be slightly underrated, but it's also easy to see why FF owners would favor Greene. Greene has prototypical workhorse size and was drafted by a team with a 30+ year old starter whereas Coffee has an atypical body and is seemingly stuck behind a 25 year old Pro Bowl caliber back. Even though they were both third round picks, I think one player is clearly much more appealing than the other.I think it's easy to see why Thomas and Dillard are trendy picks in shark leagues. Thomas was a record-breaking receiver in a BCS conference. Athletically, he's a freak of nature on par with Heyward-Bey and Harvin. He fell because he doesn't have an ideal NFL body. He's under 5'8" tall. People are willing to gamble that he'll be successful despite that handicap. Same thing with Dillard. It's probably not a stretch to call him one of the greatest WRs in the history of college football. He fell because he's slender and a step slow. Some people look at his college results and think he's an obvious candidate to surprise. That doesn't mean they're right, but you can certainly understand the thought process that would lead a lot of people to favor these guys over uninspiring options like Derrick Williams, Juaquin Iglesias, and Brian Hartline.

 

[loose circuits]

I just scooped up Marko Mitchell. I have some hope for the kid. I'm not sold on Thomas or Kelly ever amounting too much. Think there is definitely a spot up for grabs there. He has large mitts, he's 6'4 217, big wing span, and college production is decent. He also runs well, I think there is some potential here. I got him in the bottom of the 5th round, so there weren't many options available- Louis Murphy and the UDFA's.

 

[coolnerd]

I am guessing that 30% for a thrid round RB is better than whatever it is for a 5th round WR. We as a group we (FBGs) are drafting another 3rd round RB (Grene) in the top 10 picks overall and doing so w/o question that it is the propoer move. Not considering that people maybe right or wrong about the talents of Coffee or Greene, but the 30% applies to both. I know there are good handful of people who watch college football and do draw their own conclusions, but I think especially in a mediocore at best overall class like this there should be more variation on both Dillard and Coffee than I am see in FBG dominated leagues.

I think you're right to a certain extent, but I also think there's often a good reason why astute owners favor one player over another. Darrius Heyward-Bey was the first WR drafted, but he has been picked behind Crabtree, Maclin, Nicks, and Harvin in every single one of my drafts so far. Why are so many owners willing to bet against the odds and take players who were lower picks in the NFL draft? I think the answer is pretty clear. Everyone looks at Oakland's Heyward-Bey pick and understands it in context: the Raiders are a train wreck of a team and they often reach for marginal prospects who have great speed. So while DHB was the first WR chosen, that doesn't mean we should give him the benefit of the doubt and automatically make him the first WR chosen in our rookie drafts. That's basically the same thing people are doing with Coffee/Greene. I think Coffee might be slightly underrated, but it's also easy to see why FF owners would favor Greene. Greene has prototypical workhorse size and was drafted by a team with a 30+ year old starter whereas Coffee has an atypical body and is seemingly stuck behind a 25 year old Pro Bowl caliber back. Even though they were both third round picks, I think one player is clearly much more appealing than the other.I think it's easy to see why Thomas and Dillard are trendy picks in shark leagues. Thomas was a record-breaking receiver in a BCS conference. Athletically, he's a freak of nature on par with Heyward-Bey and Harvin. He fell because he doesn't have an ideal NFL body. He's under 5'8" tall. People are willing to gamble that he'll be successful despite that handicap. Same thing with Dillard. It's probably not a stretch to call him one of the greatest WRs in the history of college football. He fell because he's slender and a step slow. Some people look at his college results and think he's an obvious candidate to surprise. That doesn't mean they're right, but you can certainly understand the thought process that would lead a lot of people to favor these guys over uninspiring options like Derrick Williams, Juaquin Iglesias, and Brian Hartline.

Obviously, I am not advocating draft position as the be all to end all, and your anaylsis of players discussed in the thread is strong. On a board where there are threads that go on for pages about 2 spots disagreement in a redraft ranking, I always find strange these wierd islands of near universal agreement.

 

[LBH]

I see a lot of discussion on Dillard/Thomas. What if M.Walker was in the mix to be drafted in the rookie draft. Where would he fall in relation to the other two. Personally I like Walker better than both

 

[2and2is5]

i've always been a big fan of micheal bush, hated as a rutgers guy watching him at louisville, cause he was a beast, he's had some limited success in the NFL, i dont see fargas being anything worth keeping him off the field, so your left with mcfadden and bush with the majority of the carries? any oakland homers heard any news on him this year? he's been my favorite project back on my roster, but i've gotten a lot of interest for him

 

[cstu]

I see a lot of discussion on Dillard/Thomas. What if M.Walker was in the mix to be drafted in the rookie draft. Where would he fall in relation to the other two. Personally I like Walker better than both

A healthy Walker is probably the best of the three, but I wouldn't bet on him staying healthy. From what I've seen, guys that struggle with injuries early in their careers rarely end up major contributors. Obviously there are exceptions but starting out unable to stay healthy is a bad sign of things to come.

 

[Biabreakable]

I am guessing that 30% for a thrid round RB is better than whatever it is for a 5th round WR. We as a group we (FBGs) are drafting another 3rd round RB (Grene) in the top 10 picks overall and doing so w/o question that it is the propoer move. Not considering that people maybe right or wrong about the talents of Coffee or Greene, but the 30% applies to both. I know there are good handful of people who watch college football and do draw their own conclusions, but I think especially in a mediocore at best overall class like this there should be more variation on both Dillard and Coffee than I am see in FBG dominated leagues.

I think you're right to a certain extent, but I also think there's often a good reason why astute owners favor one player over another. Darrius Heyward-Bey was the first WR drafted, but he has been picked behind Crabtree, Maclin, Nicks, and Harvin in every single one of my drafts so far. Why are so many owners willing to bet against the odds and take players who were lower picks in the NFL draft? I think the answer is pretty clear. Everyone looks at Oakland's Heyward-Bey pick and understands it in context: the Raiders are a train wreck of a team and they often reach for marginal prospects who have great speed. So while DHB was the first WR chosen, that doesn't mean we should give him the benefit of the doubt and automatically make him the first WR chosen in our rookie drafts. That's basically the same thing people are doing with Coffee/Greene. I think Coffee might be slightly underrated, but it's also easy to see why FF owners would favor Greene. Greene has prototypical workhorse size and was drafted by a team with a 30+ year old starter whereas Coffee has an atypical body and is seemingly stuck behind a 25 year old Pro Bowl caliber back. Even though they were both third round picks, I think one player is clearly much more appealing than the other.I think it's easy to see why Thomas and Dillard are trendy picks in shark leagues. Thomas was a record-breaking receiver in a BCS conference. Athletically, he's a freak of nature on par with Heyward-Bey and Harvin. He fell because he doesn't have an ideal NFL body. He's under 5'8" tall. People are willing to gamble that he'll be successful despite that handicap. Same thing with Dillard. It's probably not a stretch to call him one of the greatest WRs in the history of college football. He fell because he's slender and a step slow. Some people look at his college results and think he's an obvious candidate to surprise. That doesn't mean they're right, but you can certainly understand the thought process that would lead a lot of people to favor these guys over uninspiring options like Derrick Williams, Juaquin Iglesias, and Brian Hartline.

Obviously, I am not advocating draft position as the be all to end all, and your anaylsis of players discussed in the thread is strong. On a board where there are threads that go on for pages about 2 spots disagreement in a redraft ranking, I always find strange these wierd islands of near universal agreement.

I think there is less agreement about these things amoungst us here in the pool than it may seem at this time. And those debates will be forthcoming.There are still a lot of drafts in play. Bloom, EBF,F&L and struxsboy ect. are more open than most of us might be about specific rankings at this time.I have a lot of things to say and like everyone I am still assesing situations. I will give another reason why I think the Dillard/Thomas situation is interesting to me as far as draft position. The Bears have MUCH less established starters at the WR position than the Jaguars do. They also have a QB that I think few would argue is better than Garrard. Yet I have not been seeing owners going out of their way to pick Knox and Juaquin Iglesias. Even though they probably have a clearer path to opportunity and have a better QB. The Bears may not be as conservative on offense now that they have Cutler.My rankings continue to move around. Early on (right after the draft) I had Greene higher on my board than I do now. After combing over the situations for a week my rankings have settled more back to my pre-NFL draft rankings again. Greene is not in the top 10 on my list anymore. But he was up there for a few days following the draft. I play IDP and I do not play PPR so that might be a big part of the difference in opinion by itself.In a week or two my drafts (and many others) will be in the bag. There will be a lot more splainin' to do then. I hope to hear more from you and others over the coming weeks on this draft class as some tounges get loosened up a bit.

 

[Bourbon Glow]

I had Thomas and Dillard on my radar in my rookie dynasty ppr draft and decided to go with Thomas as i think he will be more involved on a regular basis.

 

[Dope]

I am guessing that 30% for a thrid round RB is better than whatever it is for a 5th round WR. We as a group we (FBGs) are drafting another 3rd round RB (Grene) in the top 10 picks overall and doing so w/o question that it is the propoer move. Not considering that people maybe right or wrong about the talents of Coffee or Greene, but the 30% applies to both. I know there are good handful of people who watch college football and do draw their own conclusions, but I think especially in a mediocore at best overall class like this there should be more variation on both Dillard and Coffee than I am see in FBG dominated leagues.

I think you're right to a certain extent, but I also think there's often a good reason why astute owners favor one player over another. Darrius Heyward-Bey was the first WR drafted, but he has been picked behind Crabtree, Maclin, Nicks, and Harvin in every single one of my drafts so far. Why are so many owners willing to bet against the odds and take players who were lower picks in the NFL draft? I think the answer is pretty clear. Everyone looks at Oakland's Heyward-Bey pick and understands it in context: the Raiders are a train wreck of a team and they often reach for marginal prospects who have great speed. So while DHB was the first WR chosen, that doesn't mean we should give him the benefit of the doubt and automatically make him the first WR chosen in our rookie drafts. That's basically the same thing people are doing with Coffee/Greene. I think Coffee might be slightly underrated, but it's also easy to see why FF owners would favor Greene. Greene has prototypical workhorse size and was drafted by a team with a 30+ year old starter whereas Coffee has an atypical body and is seemingly stuck behind a 25 year old Pro Bowl caliber back. Even though they were both third round picks, I think one player is clearly much more appealing than the other.I think it's easy to see why Thomas and Dillard are trendy picks in shark leagues. Thomas was a record-breaking receiver in a BCS conference. Athletically, he's a freak of nature on par with Heyward-Bey and Harvin. He fell because he doesn't have an ideal NFL body. He's under 5'8" tall. People are willing to gamble that he'll be successful despite that handicap. Same thing with Dillard. It's probably not a stretch to call him one of the greatest WRs in the history of college football. He fell because he's slender and a step slow. Some people look at his college results and think he's an obvious candidate to surprise. That doesn't mean they're right, but you can certainly understand the thought process that would lead a lot of people to favor these guys over uninspiring options like Derrick Williams, Juaquin Iglesias, and Brian Hartline.

Obviously, I am not advocating draft position as the be all to end all, and your anaylsis of players discussed in the thread is strong. On a board where there are threads that go on for pages about 2 spots disagreement in a redraft ranking, I always find strange these wierd islands of near universal agreement.

I think there is less agreement about these things amoungst us here in the pool than it may seem at this time. And those debates will be forthcoming.There are still a lot of drafts in play. Bloom, EBF,F&L and struxsboy ect. are more open than most of us might be about specific rankings at this time.I have a lot of things to say and like everyone I am still assesing situations. I will give another reason why I think the Dillard/Thomas situation is interesting to me as far as draft position. The Bears have MUCH less established starters at the WR position than the Jaguars do. They also have a QB that I think few would argue is better than Garrard. Yet I have not been seeing owners going out of their way to pick Knox and Juaquin Iglesias. Even though they probably have a clearer path to opportunity and have a better QB. The Bears may not be as conservative on offense now that they have Cutler.My rankings continue to move around. Early on (right after the draft) I had Greene higher on my board than I do now. After combing over the situations for a week my rankings have settled more back to my pre-NFL draft rankings again. Greene is not in the top 10 on my list anymore. But he was up there for a few days following the draft. I play IDP and I do not play PPR so that might be a big part of the difference in opinion by itself.In a week or two my drafts (and many others) will be in the bag. There will be a lot more splainin' to do then. I hope to hear more from you and others over the coming weeks on this draft class as some tounges get loosened up a bit.

What caused you to move Greene back down? Because I haven't seen or read anything that would cause movement one way or the other since the draft.I'm just curious (also drafted Greene at 1.5 )

 

[•TheRealMcCoy]

Anybody have any deeeeeep sleeper recommendations?

Guys along the lines of Cottam. (Who is on my roster already BTW). I am in a 12-team, 40-man roster, non-IDP dynasty league (so 480 offensive players / PK / TD rostered), looking to fill out the last spot or two on my roster. The waiver wire looks bare.

Any players most people may not be familiar with that may have some value down the road?

Im sure by time I throw this out there, some(if not all) of these will have been mentioned, if they havent already)?McKinely (Den/WR). I really think Marshall will be shown the door in the next year or two?

Foster (STL/WR). They are not very deep at WR at all? I live here in NC and there are a few Tar Heel fans that think Foster is just as good as Nicks and Tate? So stay tuned on this guy?

Obaganayya (STL/RB). Yes another Ram. But again, there thin at RB too! He may be S Jax's backup(who is oft-injured).

Jac RBs: Any of the 3 or 4 backups? Maybe Washington? Jennings(RC)? But Drew has never carried the load alone!

Super Sleeper; Derek Kinder (Chi/WR). This guy was Palkos go to guy in Pitt before injurys. He is a big physical guy and to me looks a lot like Brandon Marshall during and after the catch! Doesnt look blazing fast, but goes up after the ball and is not afraid to catch it over the middle. Feel free to YouTube him or whatever? He looks promising! Oh, and he went to Chicago "ala" Cutler/Marshall??

http://draftguys.com/index.php/articles/1/...r_derek_kinder/

Theres more Im sure, but thats a few for now.

 

[prymetyme25]

Anybody have any deeeeeep sleeper recommendations? Guys along the lines of Cottam. (Who is on my roster already BTW). I am in a 12-team, 40-man roster, non-IDP dynasty league (so 480 offensive players / PK / TD rostered), looking to fill out the last spot or two on my roster. The waiver wire looks bare. Any players most people may not be familiar with that may have some value down the road?

David Anderson/ James Casey. One of these guys is gonna get alot of slot work. I think they'll split it with Anderson getting most of it but Casey will get alot of FB flat work IMO. Neither guy drops anything so I expect decent production. I dont think either guy is gonna explode but if you get them off the WW or 5th round of a rookie/FA draft by midseason you should be able to get a 3rd rounder or more for them.

 

[BLOX]

I've been waiting to post this for a bit because I had a rookie/FA draft. However, I just drafted the guy so can now post what I've heard.

Local radio has been talking about Packers a bit after the draft, anyway the guy who covers the Packers mentioned how DeShawn Wynn has been in Green Bay all offseason and looks like a beast. He also mentioned that he seems to understand that he needed to grow up and that if his mind settled in with his skills he could be very good. I'm not saying Wynn is going to steal a job or anything, but I'm pretty sure Jackson is the lock for the 3rd down job so Wynn may be Grant's actual handcuff and could possibly take the job if there were to be injury issues again.

I'll try to find a link, but like I said this was on the radio so I may not be able to.

Wynn has played well when given an opportunity. You probably don't have to put him on your roster now either, but be prepared if you see signs of Grant struggling or Wynn exploding during TC and Preseason.

 

[Matt Waldman]

Two buy-low candidates who might be worth getting if you have the luxury are LenDale White and Vince Young.

White is nothing more than a joke to many owners who think Javon Ringer is going to run him out of town. This is possible if White doesn't stay healthy, in shape, or focused at being what he's capable. But based on talent, Ringer isn't on the same plane as White - and I personally have never been a LenDale White fan (I let loose a long string of curses when he was drafted). But I personally believe that his value is at a good point to acquire him with Chris Johnson's breakout, the addition of Ringer, and the fact White fumbled the game away against Baltimore. The fact White is in much better shape and really steamed about his mistake is a good sign.

Let's remember that Chris Johnson is a dynamic player, but I doubt the Titans think he's a 15 carry per game back. I would think the injury in the Ravens game validates that notion and the resulting addition of Ringer was a reaction to it as much as White's play.

If White comes into camp in great shape and plays like he's capable, the Titans will not hesitate to feed him the ball and use Johnson as the change of pace and slot guy. Not that Johnson won't get his, but I could see White really doing a lot more in the 4th QTR of games and busting runs of 15-20 yards more often than we'd ever expect at this point.

Young is more of a buy low and sit on him for a year. I remember Broncos and Steelers fans who thought Elway and Bradshaw were going to be unmitigated busts. If there is a team that is going to seriously give Vince Young a chance to grow up and be the kind of man and player he should be, it will be Tennessee because of a) the investment they made in him and the potential they saw as a rookie and b) because Jeff Fisher is a straight up kind of coach who will look a player in the eye and say "this is how you are messing up and this is what I expect from you." A lot of coaches either play games are communicate these things in stupid ways that alienate or confuse their players. Fisher won't do that and this has given Young a chance to figure out that he just has to do what he's told and focus. It took him longer than what many expected, but I think at the cost you can probably get him by early in the regular season, he's a low risk-high reward value.

I like the Mark Clayton choice and I discussed him as a breakout candidate in an upcoming Gut Check Column on Stat Profiling Breakout Wide receivers that will be on the homepage in the next day or so.