EBF
Footballguy
Below is a list of players who strike me as good buys in dynasty leagues right now. I tried to focus on names that aren't getting tons of attention right now, although this list also includes a number of well-known players. Without furhter ado, the 2007 dynasty offseason buy list...
Alex Smith, QB, San Francisco - Smith quietly made huge strides in 2006. He improved his QB rating by 34 points and improved his completion percentage by more than 7 percent. After throwing 1 TD and 11 INTs in 2005, Smith threw 16 TDs and 16 INTs last season. Smith is a former number one overall pick and is barely 23 years old. He appears to have a great attitude and it looks like his best days are ahead of him. The 49ers are one of the rising organizations in the NFL. As Smith continues to mature and the team continues to add talent, his value should increase. I don't know if he'll ever throw enough to be a true FF star, but I think he has a good chance of eventually becoming a steady top 10 QB. While other owners are overpaying for Cutler, Leinart, and Young, it might be wise to pick up Smith at a bargain price.
Michael Turner, RB, San Diego - Now that his chances of starting have vanished for another 9-10 months, Turner might actually be a good buy. Although he lacks the explosiveness of a guy like Tomlinson or Bush, Turner is an above average NFL back who stands a very good chance of becoming a team's workhorse in the near future. He's been hyped up a ton on FBG and is generally considered a valuable asset by his owners, but he's still an intriguing value. I suggest you wait a few weeks into the season when his owners get desperate to compete for the 2007 crown. Their title lust will make them more willing to trade Turner for instant help, which should allow you to pick up this valuable RB at a relatively cheap price. I consider him roughly equivalent in value to Rudi Johnson.
Thomas Jones, RB, NYJ - A former top 10 pick in the NFL draft, Jones is probably one of the most underrated running backs in the NFL. He's been in the league for a while and he probably only has 2-3 peak years left, but I think he has a chance to help your team if you're looking for a rock solid RB2 in the short-term. Pennington is the best QB Jones has ever gotten to play with. The Jets have some real talent on the OL and a pair of talented WRs. If Chad stays healthy, Jones should have the best season of his NFL career next year.
Kenny Irons, RB, Cincinnati - A two-time all-SEC selection and recent 2nd round NFL draft pick, Kenny Irons is poised to threaten for the Bengals starting RB slot at some point in the next few years. Irons lacks elite talent and will probably never be a true superstar, but he is similar to Clinton Portis in many respects and his performance at the combine solidified the fact that he has NFL-caliber athletic ability. Irons is certainly not a lock to become an effective NFL starter, but I feel he represents a good risk/reward proposition at his current cost. If you can get him for a retread like Tatum Bell, Chester Taylor, or DeShaun Foster, I'd probably pull the trigger. A highly-drafted RB on a great offense is a valuable commodity.
Mark Clayton, WR, Baltimore - Clayton isn't the biggest or the fastest WR in the league, but he's a solid football player. During the 2005 draft, Torry Holt said Clayton was the best WR in the class. It looks like he may have been on to something. I don't know if Clayton will ever be more than a good FF WR2 or WR3, but he's a good player who should have a long and productive career in the NFL. He won't come cheap, but he looks like a solid low risk investment to me.
Santonio Holmes, WR, Pittsburgh - Holmes was the first WR chosen in 2006 and the only receiver taken in the first round. He paid immediate dividends, racking up over 800 receiving yards last season including over 500 yards in his last eight games. In spite of these credentials, many FF players rank him below the likes of Dwayne Bowe, Vincent Jackson, DJ Hackett, Sidney Rice, Deion Branch, Brandon Marshall, and Brandon Jones. If you can get Holmes in return for one of these players, I would pull the trigger. Holmes may never be a true star, but it's tough to argue with his pedigree and his production thus far. Also, he has the benefit of playing with a good QB and an aging WR1. I probably wouldn't trade him for any rookie WR not named Calvin Johnson. That's not to say there aren't players with more upside, but Holmes has already shown that he can play at the NFL level.
Reggie Williams, WR, Jacksonville - Williams was a dominant player in college and a top 10 pick in the NFL draft. His NFL career has been unspectacular thus far, but his numbers have improved every season and he's still only 24 years old. I have questions about his intelligence and desire to be great, but I think he's still a pretty good buy low candidate due to his high ceiling and low cost. Try to find a long-term owner who has finally given up on Reggie after three slow seasons. You might be able to get him for pennies. There's no guarantee that he'll ever pan out, but he's the type of guy I recommend stashing for 1-2 years to see what happens.
Ronald Curry, WR, Oakland - Who's the best WR on the Raiders? Probably Curry. Injuries have hampered him, but he's quietly been very productive at times during his career. He was a dominant athlete in college and I think he might be poised for his best season as a pro. That said, the Raiders are an utter disaster and I have my doubts about their ability to produce a productive WR. Still, Curry is a name to consider deep in a draft or as a trade throw-in.
Kevin Curtis, WR, Philadelphia - I've always thought Curtis is a good player. Now that he finally has a chance to be a starter, I think he makes an good short-term WR4 or WR5. He's a bit old and he'll probably never be a true superstar, but I expect him to exceed expectations next season. It's even possible that he'll have a better year than Reggie Brown.
Steve Smith/Mike Walker/Laurent Robinson/Johnnie Lee Higgins/Jacoby Jones - While high-profile rookies have a tendency to be overrated and overdrafted, second tier guys can often be had for pennies. Capitalize on this fact and round out your bench with some of these unheralded WRs. If you're patient, you might get the next Laveranues Coles, Darrell Jackson, Chad Johnson, or Steve Smith. Robinson is my favorite of this group, but they all have talent.
Brad Smith, WR, NYJ - Smith was a dominant player in college. Although he played QB at Missouri, he still managed to be an early fourth round selection as a WR prospect. At 6'2" and 210 pounds, Smith has tons of athletic ability and was reportedly the best WR on the field at many Jets practices last year. He's flying way under the radar right now. It will probably take 2-3 more years for him to hit his peak, but he could be a top 20 FF WR in the future. I have him on most of my dynasty teams and have tried to acquire him in all but one of my leagues. Expect him to push out McCareins this season and solidify himself as the WR3 for the Jets.
Alex Smith, QB, San Francisco - Smith quietly made huge strides in 2006. He improved his QB rating by 34 points and improved his completion percentage by more than 7 percent. After throwing 1 TD and 11 INTs in 2005, Smith threw 16 TDs and 16 INTs last season. Smith is a former number one overall pick and is barely 23 years old. He appears to have a great attitude and it looks like his best days are ahead of him. The 49ers are one of the rising organizations in the NFL. As Smith continues to mature and the team continues to add talent, his value should increase. I don't know if he'll ever throw enough to be a true FF star, but I think he has a good chance of eventually becoming a steady top 10 QB. While other owners are overpaying for Cutler, Leinart, and Young, it might be wise to pick up Smith at a bargain price.
Michael Turner, RB, San Diego - Now that his chances of starting have vanished for another 9-10 months, Turner might actually be a good buy. Although he lacks the explosiveness of a guy like Tomlinson or Bush, Turner is an above average NFL back who stands a very good chance of becoming a team's workhorse in the near future. He's been hyped up a ton on FBG and is generally considered a valuable asset by his owners, but he's still an intriguing value. I suggest you wait a few weeks into the season when his owners get desperate to compete for the 2007 crown. Their title lust will make them more willing to trade Turner for instant help, which should allow you to pick up this valuable RB at a relatively cheap price. I consider him roughly equivalent in value to Rudi Johnson.
Thomas Jones, RB, NYJ - A former top 10 pick in the NFL draft, Jones is probably one of the most underrated running backs in the NFL. He's been in the league for a while and he probably only has 2-3 peak years left, but I think he has a chance to help your team if you're looking for a rock solid RB2 in the short-term. Pennington is the best QB Jones has ever gotten to play with. The Jets have some real talent on the OL and a pair of talented WRs. If Chad stays healthy, Jones should have the best season of his NFL career next year.
Kenny Irons, RB, Cincinnati - A two-time all-SEC selection and recent 2nd round NFL draft pick, Kenny Irons is poised to threaten for the Bengals starting RB slot at some point in the next few years. Irons lacks elite talent and will probably never be a true superstar, but he is similar to Clinton Portis in many respects and his performance at the combine solidified the fact that he has NFL-caliber athletic ability. Irons is certainly not a lock to become an effective NFL starter, but I feel he represents a good risk/reward proposition at his current cost. If you can get him for a retread like Tatum Bell, Chester Taylor, or DeShaun Foster, I'd probably pull the trigger. A highly-drafted RB on a great offense is a valuable commodity.
Mark Clayton, WR, Baltimore - Clayton isn't the biggest or the fastest WR in the league, but he's a solid football player. During the 2005 draft, Torry Holt said Clayton was the best WR in the class. It looks like he may have been on to something. I don't know if Clayton will ever be more than a good FF WR2 or WR3, but he's a good player who should have a long and productive career in the NFL. He won't come cheap, but he looks like a solid low risk investment to me.
Santonio Holmes, WR, Pittsburgh - Holmes was the first WR chosen in 2006 and the only receiver taken in the first round. He paid immediate dividends, racking up over 800 receiving yards last season including over 500 yards in his last eight games. In spite of these credentials, many FF players rank him below the likes of Dwayne Bowe, Vincent Jackson, DJ Hackett, Sidney Rice, Deion Branch, Brandon Marshall, and Brandon Jones. If you can get Holmes in return for one of these players, I would pull the trigger. Holmes may never be a true star, but it's tough to argue with his pedigree and his production thus far. Also, he has the benefit of playing with a good QB and an aging WR1. I probably wouldn't trade him for any rookie WR not named Calvin Johnson. That's not to say there aren't players with more upside, but Holmes has already shown that he can play at the NFL level.
Reggie Williams, WR, Jacksonville - Williams was a dominant player in college and a top 10 pick in the NFL draft. His NFL career has been unspectacular thus far, but his numbers have improved every season and he's still only 24 years old. I have questions about his intelligence and desire to be great, but I think he's still a pretty good buy low candidate due to his high ceiling and low cost. Try to find a long-term owner who has finally given up on Reggie after three slow seasons. You might be able to get him for pennies. There's no guarantee that he'll ever pan out, but he's the type of guy I recommend stashing for 1-2 years to see what happens.
Ronald Curry, WR, Oakland - Who's the best WR on the Raiders? Probably Curry. Injuries have hampered him, but he's quietly been very productive at times during his career. He was a dominant athlete in college and I think he might be poised for his best season as a pro. That said, the Raiders are an utter disaster and I have my doubts about their ability to produce a productive WR. Still, Curry is a name to consider deep in a draft or as a trade throw-in.
Kevin Curtis, WR, Philadelphia - I've always thought Curtis is a good player. Now that he finally has a chance to be a starter, I think he makes an good short-term WR4 or WR5. He's a bit old and he'll probably never be a true superstar, but I expect him to exceed expectations next season. It's even possible that he'll have a better year than Reggie Brown.
Steve Smith/Mike Walker/Laurent Robinson/Johnnie Lee Higgins/Jacoby Jones - While high-profile rookies have a tendency to be overrated and overdrafted, second tier guys can often be had for pennies. Capitalize on this fact and round out your bench with some of these unheralded WRs. If you're patient, you might get the next Laveranues Coles, Darrell Jackson, Chad Johnson, or Steve Smith. Robinson is my favorite of this group, but they all have talent.
Brad Smith, WR, NYJ - Smith was a dominant player in college. Although he played QB at Missouri, he still managed to be an early fourth round selection as a WR prospect. At 6'2" and 210 pounds, Smith has tons of athletic ability and was reportedly the best WR on the field at many Jets practices last year. He's flying way under the radar right now. It will probably take 2-3 more years for him to hit his peak, but he could be a top 20 FF WR in the future. I have him on most of my dynasty teams and have tried to acquire him in all but one of my leagues. Expect him to push out McCareins this season and solidify himself as the WR3 for the Jets.
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What does YPC have to do with speed
I say this all the time 4 inches 6 inches what's the differents? 
I'm not a big fan of Portis, great talent, wrong system for him.Welker could be a sneaky 80-catch guy, with all the focus on Moss and Stallworth , Welker figures to see a lot of action on the short routes..I'll add to this list:Zach Miller - Oakland's OC is Greg Knapp, a guy who loves to utilize the TE position ( see Alge Crumpler). The team is reportedly unhappy with Courtney Anderson , and they used a 2nd round pick on Miller.But with Knapp calling plays and with a rookie QB at the helm, a TE is a QB's best friend. Another Todd Heap in the making.Devery Henderson - Can Colston repeat his terrific rookie season, or will he suffer a sophomore slump?If he slumps, Henderson figures to be the main benefactor. If Colston proves to be the real deal, Henderson will benefit from defenses rolling their coverage towards Colston, leaving Henderson in more 1-on-1 coverage. ADP will be LOW on this guy, he's every bit as promising as Hackett is in Seattle.I'm not a big Ronnie Brown fan, but if you believe that Cam Cameron is going to turn around that pathetic Miami offense, Brown is a your certified stud RB , going forward. Cameron loves to call screen passes and dumpoffs to the RB ( LT2 avg'd 67 catches per season while Cameron was OC in San Diego). Brown has a great set of hands, and could catch 50+ balls this season. Who else on the team has shown they can catch the ball with any consistency?! Cameron has never been a big proponent of passing to the WR's , he uses the TE and RB's more than anything else. Brown has averaged 4.3 ypc in his NFL seasons , not bad when you consider how bad the coaching and the QB play has been down there. If ( a mighty big if) the Dolphins get their O-line sorted out, Brown has a bright future.
I'm not a big fan of Portis, great talent, wrong system for him.Welker could be a sneaky 80-catch guy, with all the focus on Moss and Stallworth , Welker figures to see a lot of action on the short routes..I'll add to this list:Zach Miller - Oakland's OC is Greg Knapp, a guy who loves to utilize the TE position ( see Alge Crumpler). The team is reportedly unhappy with Courtney Anderson , and they used a 2nd round pick on Miller.But with Knapp calling plays and with a rookie QB at the helm, a TE is a QB's best friend. Another Todd Heap in the making.Devery Henderson - Can Colston repeat his terrific rookie season, or will he suffer a sophomore slump?If he slumps, Henderson figures to be the main benefactor. If Colston proves to be the real deal, Henderson will benefit from defenses rolling their coverage towards Colston, leaving Henderson in more 1-on-1 coverage. ADP will be LOW on this guy, he's every bit as promising as Hackett is in Seattle.I'm not a big Ronnie Brown fan, but if you believe that Cam Cameron is going to turn around that pathetic Miami offense, Brown is a your certified stud RB , going forward. Cameron loves to call screen passes and dumpoffs to the RB ( LT2 avg'd 67 catches per season while Cameron was OC in San Diego). Brown has a great set of hands, and could catch 50+ balls this season. Who else on the team has shown they can catch the ball with any consistency?! Cameron has never been a big proponent of passing to the WR's , he uses the TE and RB's more than anything else. Brown has averaged 4.3 ypc in his NFL seasons , not bad when you consider how bad the coaching and the QB play has been down there. If ( a mighty big if) the Dolphins get their O-line sorted out, Brown has a bright future.
Just wondering what your definition of "good buys" was? I was thinking it referred to (1) your favorite players who might be flying under the radar, or (2) players with good upside who could be obtained cheaply either in initial dynasty drafts or through trades. But then I thought you might be referring to players whose expected performance (over the next 2-4 years) substantially exceeded their draft position (representing very good value).
