[DYNASTY] The Matt Forte Effect (1 Viewer)

[doowain]

I've titled this "The Matt Forte Effect", but you could really insert any player that has outperformed acquisition value by a large margin.

I've noticed in my dynasty leagues that every year there are players that are overvalued. It never fails. The players I'm referring to are players that, regardless of skill, are valued at a level higher than maybe they should be. The running similarity in these players are the means in which they are acquired. It seems that owners put a surcharge of sorts on "their guys". We've all run into this situation. You pick up a guy off the waiver wire and he explodes. You draft a gem in the late rounds of a draft. You get that "throw in" player in a trade who turns into an every week starter for you overnight. These guys hold that extra bit of value with you. And it's usually, over the longer run, undeserving.

Take the player referenced in the thread title, Matt Forte. His rookie year, his ADP was roughly in the 6th-7th round range in startup dynasties. That year he well outperformed that draft position regardless of huge red flags. His value was largely tied to receptions and his RB skills were pedestrian in games. You could take one look at him in games and recognize that he wasn't an elite athlete, let alone an elite RB. Regardless, the next year (2009) he was drafted in the Top 10 in nearly every startup dynasty despite these flaws. His trade value in leagues was very high and part of that value rested on his perceived value by owners who got him "on the cheap". Buzz is often created based on these situations and this buzz drives fantasy values through the roof. This leads to the knee jerk reactions and overvaluing of players.

In a very strange year for FF, there is a pretty good sized list shaping up...

Arian Foster

Steve Johnson

Michael Vick

Peyton Hillis

Brandon Lloyd

Try to acquire these guys in leagues. I'm not saying they are overvalued based on production. These guys are all performing at very high levels. What do all of these guys have in common though? Late round picks or WW additions. And it's all in spite of their long term value being murky. Is Foster another Steve Slaton? Is Hillis the answer? Can a Buffalo WR really be FF startable over the long haul? Vick and Lloyd are both FAs after this year. With that level of uncertainty, you'd think that their values would be affected more. I haven't seen that though. I think that's why you don't see a lot of trades involving these guys happening right now.

Having said all of this, I think the inverse is true for players that have been valued high in the past but have underperformed recently. Two guys off the top of my head are Greg Jennings and Dwayne Bowe. Last year both guys were late 1st to mid 2nd round dynasty picks. They both follow that up with very down years. Here they are this year bouncing back and playing up to that value, yet they aren't getting the buzz/value boost of the list above. For me, I'd rather put my stock in guys who've done it before and have pedigree. It almost seems as though they are punished for it. They're both putting up excellent bounceback years, but their values don't reflect it. What don't they have in common with the list above? They were already rostered or owners have a good amount of value invested in them already. They aren't generating (undeservedly) a huge buzz. So, they don't qualify for this built in "acquisition value".

What does all of this mean? I'm not sure. What I do know is that Fantasy Football is a strange beast and is evolving into more than a just "what have you done for me lately" hobby now. We aren't just overvaluing the studs, but "our guys".

 

[Concept Coop]

I've titled this "The Matt Forte Effect", but you could really insert any player that has outperformed acquisition value by a large margin.I've noticed in my dynasty leagues that every year there are players that are overvalued. It never fails. The players I'm referring to are players that, regardless of skill, are valued at a level higher than maybe they should be. The running similarity in these players are the means in which they are acquired. It seems that owners put a surcharge of sorts on "their guys". We've all run into this situation. You pick up a guy off the waiver wire and he explodes. You draft a gem in the late rounds of a draft. You get that "throw in" player in a trade who turns into an every week starter for you overnight. These guys hold that extra bit of value with you. And it's usually, over the longer run, undeserving.Take the player referenced in the thread title, Matt Forte. His rookie year, his ADP was roughly in the 6th-7th round range in startup dynasties. That year he well outperformed that draft position regardless of huge red flags. His value was largely tied to receptions and his RB skills were pedestrian in games. You could take one look at him in games and recognize that he wasn't an elite athlete, let alone an elite RB. Regardless, the next year (2009) he was drafted in the Top 10 in nearly every startup dynasty despite these flaws. His trade value in leagues was very high and part of that value rested on his perceived value by owners who got him "on the cheap". Buzz is often created based on these situations and this buzz drives fantasy values through the roof. This leads to the knee jerk reactions and overvaluing of players. In a very strange year for FF, there is a pretty good sized list shaping up...Arian FosterSteve JohnsonMichael VickPeyton HillisBrandon LloydTry to acquire these guys in leagues. I'm not saying they are overvalued based on production. These guys are all performing at very high levels. What do all of these guys have in common though? Late round picks or WW additions. And it's all in spite of their long term value being murky. Is Foster another Steve Slaton? Is Hillis the answer? Can a Buffalo WR really be FF startable over the long haul? Vick and Lloyd are both FAs after this year. With that level of uncertainty, you'd think that their values would be affected more. I haven't seen that though. I think that's why you don't see a lot of trades involving these guys happening right now.Having said all of this, I think the inverse is true for players that have been valued high in the past but have underperformed recently. Two guys off the top of my head are Greg Jennings and Dwayne Bowe. Last year both guys were late 1st to mid 2nd round dynasty picks. They both follow that up with very down years. Here they are this year bouncing back and playing up to that value, yet they aren't getting the buzz/value boost of the list above. For me, I'd rather put my stock in guys who've done it before and have pedigree. It almost seems as though they are punished for it. They're both putting up excellent bounceback years, but their values don't reflect it. What don't they have in common with the list above? They were already rostered or owners have a good amount of value invested in them already. They aren't generating (undeservedly) a huge buzz. So, they don't qualify for this built in "acquisition value".What does all of this mean? I'm not sure. What I do know is that Fantasy Football is a strange beast and is evolving into more than a just "what have you done for me lately" hobby now. We aren't just overvaluing the studs, but "our guys".

While I agree, in part, with you theory, I think Forte is the only applicable example. People are not going to trade Foster, Johnson, Vick, Hillis, and Lloyd because they are all tops at their position this year. Meaning, regardless of what I think of Mike Vick in the long run, I am not trading him because he could very well be the difference between me winning and losing the championship. Same can be said for any on your list.The true test will be next year, if they start to come back to earth, as Forte did last year. As for the theory that owners have a bond with players they "hit" on, I don't know that it is any more than the bond between an owner and players they paid too much for. Meaning, I don't know if Forte is any more valuable to the owner that got him in the 6th round of a startup, and was pleasantly surprised, or the owner that got him number 5 overall the following year, and has been disappointed. The disappointed owner has to admit fault in order to trade Forte for less than what he or she paid. It is hard to get some owners to do that. There is also the bond to players that you have owned for some time, or have heavily relied on. I own Adrian Peterson in the majority of my leagues. It would take MUCH more than he is worth to get from me, because I have come to enjoy watching Vikings games for no other reason than to watch ADP, my best, most valuable, and most important FF player.So I think there are many reasons owners overvalue certain players.

 

[Herm23]

I like the theory and agree with it for the most part. I don't know that Arian Foster or Michael Vick are the best examples of it (both of these guys are legit elite level talents AND are performing at elite levels, meaning there is no reason not to value them obsencely high), however several on that list are.

Brandon Lloyd is a classic example. He has done nothing but show he is incapable of sustaining this level of performance long term throughout his NFL career. I think there are red flags and flashing warning signs all around him in regards to his long term prognosis, yet I have found it difficult to trade for him in a few leagues, even when his owners are bottom level teams that are out of playoff contention. It seems these owners are viewing him as a legitimate upper tier player, valuing him much higher than I feel he is worth. I think a large portion of this value jump in their minds is due to the fact that he was acquired very cheaply (if not freely) by them. Other examples of this include Anthony Thomas, Steve Slaton, Olandis Gary, James Stewart, Peerless Price, Patrick Jeffers, Steve Beuerlein, etc... I think the common thread with all of these players is that they experienced 1 great year of production and were all waiver wire or late draft pick/lottery ticket stash type players. They all looked very flawed while playing and never passed the "eye test", yet their owners valued them as elite players and ignored the warning signs of how they looked while playing, in large part due to the cheap acquisition price and the fact that they were "sleepers" or "steals" when they acquired them.

Conversely, the elite level players that struggle have their value dropped far below where it should be. Just this season, this has happened with MJD. He came out of the gates slowly over the first 6 weeks and suddenly many people were calling him overrated and dropping his value WAY under where it belonged (not everyone and it wasn't a sharp drop in value, but his devaluing was palpable among the general consensus). Had you gone after him 6 weeks ago, it is conceivable you could have gotten him for a 2nd tier player (something like RB #8 - RB #10). Regardless of what you think of MJD (I am lower on him than some), he is a mortal lock as a top 7 player and is absolutely towards the very top of the running back pecking order. Had he been a cheap waiver wire pickup or late round draft pick, nobody would assign the value drop to him that many were due to his slow start. It would have been ignored and he would be given a much longer leash to start producing. His decline in value was directly related to the fact that he was a top 5 draft pick, in my opinion.

 

[blackbird001]

The Forte hate is so funny to me.

Forte was a stud his rookie year rushing for over 1200 yards. That is not pedestrian, that is exceptional as most rookies hit a wall around week 10. He played injured last year. All year. Injured. Played through it. Lastly, the O-line in chicago sucks. I lost track of all the draft picks that Chicago has traded away, but if you invest in some new OL this off-season, Forte resumes his stud production. He still shows flashes of elite talent/speed, but it's ridiculous to grade him behind one of the worst lines in the league and playing for a pass heavy OC and an egotistical QB who thinks he can win any game or situation by himself.

 

[doowain]

The Forte hate is so funny to me.Forte was a stud his rookie year rushing for over 1200 yards. That is not pedestrian, that is exceptional as most rookies hit a wall around week 10. He played injured last year. All year. Injured. Played through it. Lastly, the O-line in chicago sucks. I lost track of all the draft picks that Chicago has traded away, but if you invest in some new OL this off-season, Forte resumes his stud production. He still shows flashes of elite talent/speed, but it's ridiculous to grade him behind one of the worst lines in the league and playing for a pass heavy OC and an egotistical QB who thinks he can win any game or situation by himself.

This thread isn't about Matt Forte as a player. It's about a player, like Forte, having his trade value affected by the value in which said player was acquired.FWIW, in 42 career games Matt Forte has exactly 9 games where he has rushed for over 4 ypc (3 of which were against Detroit).You can blame it on the o-line. You can blame it on the QB. You can blame it on the coach. You can blame it on injury (and unless he's been injured since the preseason of his rookie year, it has no merit). Forty two games is a large enough sample size to come to the conclusion that he's just not that good as a RB. He's slow and his agility is average at best. I will give him one thing. He's very, very good catching the ball and running screens. His instincts in that capacity are top notch. However, that's not all that is required of a running back. He's average or below average in every other category when you start comparing him to other NFL starters. Those are simply the facts.

 

[blackbird001]

The Forte hate is so funny to me.Forte was a stud his rookie year rushing for over 1200 yards. That is not pedestrian, that is exceptional as most rookies hit a wall around week 10. He played injured last year. All year. Injured. Played through it. Lastly, the O-line in chicago sucks. I lost track of all the draft picks that Chicago has traded away, but if you invest in some new OL this off-season, Forte resumes his stud production. He still shows flashes of elite talent/speed, but it's ridiculous to grade him behind one of the worst lines in the league and playing for a pass heavy OC and an egotistical QB who thinks he can win any game or situation by himself.

This thread isn't about Matt Forte as a player. It's about a player, like Forte, having his trade value affected by the value in which said player was acquired.FWIW, in 42 career games Matt Forte has exactly 9 games where he has rushed for over 4 ypc (3 of which were against Detroit).You can blame it on the o-line. You can blame it on the QB. You can blame it on the coach. You can blame it on injury (and unless he's been injured since the preseason of his rookie year, it has no merit). Forty two games is a large enough sample size to come to the conclusion that he's just not that good as a RB. He's slow and his agility is average at best. I will give him one thing. He's very, very good catching the ball and running screens. His instincts in that capacity are top notch. However, that's not all that is required of a running back. He's average or below average in every other category when you start comparing him to other NFL starters. Those are simply the facts.

You are right. I jumped the thread topic. Apologies.Signed,Pent-up Forte Apologist