Dynasty trading strategy (1 Viewer)

[Lambert]

I've played FF for years and years, but I'm relatively new to dynasty. This is NOT "what do you think of my trade offer" post, since I don't have any specific trade offers going. It's more a general, theoretical strategy question. I'm having trouble figuring out/getting a good feel for how to value future draft picks in general, and draft pick exchanges (for example, I give up player X and my 2nd round rookie draft pick next year for the other guy's 1st round rookie draft pick next year).

(1) I realize this will vary somewhat from league to league, based on number of teams, etc., but what level of players in general is worth giving up your (a) 1st round rookie pick next year, (b) your 2nd round rookie pick next year?

(2) How do you value draft pick exchanges? What level of players in general would you give up to exchange (a) your 2nd for a 1st, or (b) your 3rd for a 2nd?

Thanks in advance!!

 

[tenaka]

When it comes to 1st rounders you have to also look at where you expect to finish. There is a world of difference between the 1.4 and 1.10 most any year. This then comes into play when you bargain, downplaying your team if you're trading the pick away to argue that it is going to be one of the top players.

Assuming it isn't late season and you can't say EXACTLY what pick it is, I'd value an early (top 3-4) pick at a low end RB2. Most other 1st rounders are a lot more risky and more like a WR3 value. If a team looks destined for a champion maybe WR4 or QB3. 2nd rounders I wouldn't even attempt to get before the draft order is set but would accept to even out an existing deal. 3rd round and later I have to start looking at the fact I'd have to drop another player to even use so its of dubious value.

 

[GregR]

As far as for pick vs pick trades in future years, Jeff Pasquino made an Excel dynasty pick trade calculator. You can find the article on it here. And you can download it here.

 

[comfortably numb]

Do not underestimate the value of a 2nd RD pick, especially early 2nd RD pick.

I will often joke about trading for the 1.17 (i play in 16 team leagues) as opposed to calling it 2.01.

SO if you are considering offering your 2nd + player for someones 1st.

Be VERY careful...

Assuming 12 team league

This could be you giving 2.3 and player for 1.10

Is that player worth the 5 spots?

I like to target teams I think do not look good on paper, and try to obtain their 1st.

It's like hitting the jackpot when you are in playoff contention and look to be the proud owner of what looks to be a top 3 pick.

In regards to your questions as to what level of player to offer for a 1st...

This is just to vague to give an accurate answer.

#1

Totally depends on what you think the owners pick projects to be.

If it has a decent shot at being a top 5 pick, then, you can part with a very solid player.

#2 When you are trying to get a 1st for a player, will depend on the time you are trying to make the deal.

In a playoff push, you MIGHT get a 1st for say Plaxico, assuming he is on a healthy pace for 1200/10TDs.

Try to offer Plaxico now, you MIGHT get a 2nd.

People will overpay come playoff times, or near draft times usually.

#3

Where is your team at?

Are you staring a 3 win team? and you have SJax/Wayne on your roster.

Might be time to move them for prospects/picks.

Wayne for 1st and Braylon Edwards if the owner looks decent, might be an option.

Where is HIS team at?

If he is a continual bad team, his ONLY RB is Brandon Jacobs, his best WR is Roy Williams, and he offers you his 1st for Wayne.

I may do this straight up, hoping there is a good chance, I just landed 1.1

All in all, I would be VERY loose with 1st RD picks when offering.

Some people expect your WHOLE team and YOUR 1st for theirs, some people will view the pick as a throw in.

Get a feel for what each owner views their picks at.

 

[tenaka]

Do not underestimate the value of a 2nd RD pick, especially early 2nd RD pick.I will often joke about trading for the 1.17 (i play in 16 team leagues) as opposed to calling it 2.01.SO if you are considering offering your 2nd + player for someones 1st.Be VERY careful...Assuming 12 team leagueThis could be you giving 2.3 and player for 1.10Is that player worth the 5 spots?

Very true, I was just more generalizing. You basically break picks down into "groups" that get worth less as you move from group to group. The general point, for me anyway, is that once you get out of that first group there is a very drastic value difference. Some people are still going to believe their late 1st is worth a stud because its a 1st. So you don't trade for their 1st, but you do try to trade your 1st to them (if they are late 1sts).Then there is the age-value ratio. A 1st may be worth a guy who still is putting up top numbers but looks to be in the last year or two of his career when it gets late in the season and someone needs that boost for a deep playoff run.