Dynasty value of Owen Daniels (1 Viewer)

[fezic]

Owen Daniels was having a great year until his knee got blowed up. His contract expires after the season - I believe he was franchise tagged this year. With these two big uncertainties, how do you put a value on him?

I've been offered a trade of Chad Henne for him - definitely interesting, especially considering I'm pretty deep at TE with Dallas Clark and Dustin Keller, but really trying to figure out where his value is. I could use a developing QB on my team, so I'm considering accepting it.

My thoughts on Daniels' value: I would be hesitant to even put him in the top 12 dynasty TEs now. Best case scenario is that he signs a long-term deal with Houston, and takes at least a half or 2/3 of a season to get back to form. Worst case is he signs with another team in an offense that doesn't throw as much and/or his knee takes a good while to get back to 100%.

I'm interested to hear others' opinions.

 

[suspected]

Before the injury he was the high scorer in a PPR dynasty league (2 for TE, 1 for WR, 0 for RB). Was offered Harvin for Daniels and I declined.

 

[SSOG]

Daniels' knee injury definitely hurts, but to be honest, I was down on his value even coming into the season. Houston drafting TEs early suggested to me that Daniels had a less than 50% chance of re-signing in the first place, although as he played lights out through the year that percentage steadily rose in my mind (until the injury, of course, at which point the percentage plummeted again).

With that said, I have absolutely no problem ranking him in my top 12. The difference between TE6 and TE12 in any given year is razor thin, so I'd rather have a guy who might consistently finish around TE10 but who has strong TE5+ upside to a guy who'll consistently finish around TE6 but who has little to no upside. And I think you'd be hard pressed to come up with 12 consistent performers with better upside. I've got Gates, Witten, Dallas Clark, Cooley, Sgt. Winslow, Vernon Davis, Dustin Keller, and maybe Greg Olsen (note: no Gonzo because this is dynasty and Gonzo's on his last legs). That puts Daniels somewhere in the TE7-11 range.

 

[Casting Couch]

(note: no Gonzo because this is dynasty and Gonzo's on his last legs). That puts Daniels somewhere in the TE7-11 range.

wow, Gonzo has shown no signs what-so-ever of being on his "last legs".

 

[SSOG]

(note: no Gonzo because this is dynasty and Gonzo's on his last legs). That puts Daniels somewhere in the TE7-11 range.

wow, Gonzo has shown no signs what-so-ever of being on his "last legs".

Neither did Tomlinson, Alexander, Owens, or Harrison, to name a few recent uberstuds who saw their value fall from "untradeable" to "late 3rd round rookie pick" in the span of a year or two.I base a lot of my projections off of historical aging patterns at a position, and, historically speaking, 34 has not been kind to TEs. Even if you want to treat Tony like a WR, then aging patterns suggest that 35 is the year he disappears, never to be heard from again. When I'm projecting a guy's trade value to fall off of a cliff within the next year or two, I'm making every effort to move the guy now.

 

[Casting Couch]

(note: no Gonzo because this is dynasty and Gonzo's on his last legs). That puts Daniels somewhere in the TE7-11 range.

wow, Gonzo has shown no signs what-so-ever of being on his "last legs".

Neither did Tomlinson, Alexander, Owens, or Harrison, to name a few recent uberstuds who saw their value fall from "untradeable" to "late 3rd round rookie pick" in the span of a year or two.I base a lot of my projections off of historical aging patterns at a position, and, historically speaking, 34 has not been kind to TEs. Even if you want to treat Tony like a WR, then aging patterns suggest that 35 is the year he disappears, never to be heard from again. When I'm projecting a guy's trade value to fall off of a cliff within the next year or two, I'm making every effort to move the guy now.

Tony Gonzalez is still a top dynasty TE. I don't see him falling off the cliff like many RBs do, he's still on top of his game in a great offensive scheme, and ranked very highly across the board.Having said that, your point is more clear now with your explanation.

 

[fezic]

Before the injury he was the high scorer in a PPR dynasty league (2 for TE, 1 for WR, 0 for RB). Was offered Harvin for Daniels and I declined.

I hope this offer was pre-injury, because if you turned it down after Daniels' knee injury, I think you should turn back around and beg the guy to give you that deal.

 

[fezic]

With that said, I have absolutely no problem ranking him in my top 12. The difference between TE6 and TE12 in any given year is razor thin, so I'd rather have a guy who might consistently finish around TE10 but who has strong TE5+ upside to a guy who'll consistently finish around TE6 but who has little to no upside. And I think you'd be hard pressed to come up with 12 consistent performers with better upside. I've got Gates, Witten, Dallas Clark, Cooley, Sgt. Winslow, Vernon Davis, Dustin Keller, and maybe Greg Olsen (note: no Gonzo because this is dynasty and Gonzo's on his last legs). That puts Daniels somewhere in the TE7-11 range.

I would put Celek, Carlson, Heath Miller, and Vernon Davis clearly ahead of Daniels in terms of dynasty value, with possibly a few others ahead of him just because of their potential (Pettigrew, Zach Miller). Yes, I know Greg Olsen is conspicuously absent from this list, as I think he's reached his ceiling.I agree, however, what you said about the difference between #6 to #12 to be razor thin, and you might even be able to stretch that further, so I guess I'm back where I started - Daniels' value is really hard to pinpoint right now.

 

[GregR_2]

Owen Daniels was having a great year until his knee got blowed up. His contract expires after the season - I believe he was franchise tagged this year. With these two big uncertainties, how do you put a value on him?

I've been offered a trade of Chad Henne for him - definitely interesting, especially considering I'm pretty deep at TE with Dallas Clark and Dustin Keller, but really trying to figure out where his value is. I could use a developing QB on my team, so I'm considering accepting it.

My thoughts on Daniels' value: I would be hesitant to even put him in the top 12 dynasty TEs now. Best case scenario is that he signs a long-term deal with Houston, and takes at least a half or 2/3 of a season to get back to form. Worst case is he signs with another team in an offense that doesn't throw as much and/or his knee takes a good while to get back to 100%.

I'm interested to hear others' opinions.

No, you don't franchise tag someone until their contract is actually up. The Texans franchise tagged CB Dunta Robinson. Daniels is (was) playing out the last year of his rookie contract in 2009.As I understand things, in the past he would have been an unrestricted free agent in 2010 when his contract ended at the end of the year. However, because the Collective Bargaining Agreement was opted out, both sides have penalties imposed on them. On the owners side, 2010 is an uncapped year. On the player side, it takes 6 years to become an Unrestricted Free Agent instead of 4 years as it has been in the past. So unless I'm wrong on a detail there, this means Daniels will be a Restricted Free Agent at the end of the year and the Texans can match any offer he receives to retain him. This is why Daniels and Demeco Ryans both were upset when they weren't able to reach a contract agreement with the team going into the season. They won't be true free agents at the end of the year, making it more possible they'll end up playing a 1 year contract or have to negotiate with the team having more power as the CBA going away essentially means the team can keep them 1 more year than they would have been able to without a new, big deal under the old system.

While a poison pill contract ala Minnesota and Steve Hutchinson may be a possibility, I would otherwise assume he'll be in Houston next year.

 

[Buckna]

Houston drafting TEs early

Hill is primarily a blocking TE and was a 4th rounder. Casey was a 5th rounder and could be seen as a potential replacement but was more likely insurance because, as has already been pointed out, if the collective bargaining agreement is opted out then OD is not an UFA next year.

 

[fezic]

Owen Daniels was having a great year until his knee got blowed up. His contract expires after the season - I believe he was franchise tagged this year. With these two big uncertainties, how do you put a value on him?

I've been offered a trade of Chad Henne for him - definitely interesting, especially considering I'm pretty deep at TE with Dallas Clark and Dustin Keller, but really trying to figure out where his value is. I could use a developing QB on my team, so I'm considering accepting it.

My thoughts on Daniels' value: I would be hesitant to even put him in the top 12 dynasty TEs now. Best case scenario is that he signs a long-term deal with Houston, and takes at least a half or 2/3 of a season to get back to form. Worst case is he signs with another team in an offense that doesn't throw as much and/or his knee takes a good while to get back to 100%.

I'm interested to hear others' opinions.

No, you don't franchise tag someone until their contract is actually up. The Texans franchise tagged CB Dunta Robinson. Daniels is (was) playing out the last year of his rookie contract in 2009.As I understand things, in the past he would have been an unrestricted free agent in 2010 when his contract ended at the end of the year. However, because the Collective Bargaining Agreement was opted out, both sides have penalties imposed on them. On the owners side, 2010 is an uncapped year. On the player side, it takes 6 years to become an Unrestricted Free Agent instead of 4 years as it has been in the past. So unless I'm wrong on a detail there, this means Daniels will be a Restricted Free Agent at the end of the year and the Texans can match any offer he receives to retain him. This is why Daniels and Demeco Ryans both were upset when they weren't able to reach a contract agreement with the team going into the season. They won't be true free agents at the end of the year, making it more possible they'll end up playing a 1 year contract or have to negotiate with the team having more power as the CBA going away essentially means the team can keep them 1 more year than they would have been able to without a new, big deal under the old system.

While a poison pill contract all Minnesota and Steve Hutchinson may be a possibility, I would otherwise assume he'll be in Houston next year.

Thanks for the clarification. I remember now that part of the speculation was that if an agreement is reached between the league and the union, the Texans could use the franchise tag on him to keep him around at least for another year. I do think that it is much more likely that Daniels stays with Houston than I thought before. No chance I trade him for Henne, but it's still going to be tough to evaluate what he's worth if I want to move him. My guess is he'll be much more valuable to me than he will to anyone else.

 

[SSOG]

Tony Gonzalez is still a top dynasty TE. I don't see him falling off the cliff like many RBs do, he's still on top of his game in a great offensive scheme, and ranked very highly across the board.Having said that, your point is more clear now with your explanation.

The wall for TEs is every bit as pronounced as the wall for RBs, even if it's far less publicized. Like I said, I'm basing this on historical aging patterns at the position.Tony Gozalez has scored 100+ fantasy points in 10 straight seasons, and is on pace to do so again this year. That's not exactly unprecedented- two other TEs have scored 100+ points at age 33, and Shannon Sharpe (probably the best comparison for Gonzo given historical production and similar eras) managed 93 points. On the other hand, only once in the history of the NFL has a 34+ year old TE scored 100 points. Some might see that the only instance came from Shannon Sharpe at age 35 and think that's a reason for optimism. Others might see that Shannon Sharpe only managed 87 points at age 34, and that every other stud TE in NFL history has seen a steep falloff and see it as a reason for pessimism.Like I said, even if you want to treat Tony Gonzalez like a WR (which I don't think is warranted- TEs fall off earlier than WRs because TE is a more physical position, just like RBs fall off the earliest because RB is an even more physical position, still), even then age 35 is the end for him. Only 14 times has a WR or TE older than 35 scored 100+ points... and 5 of them were Jerry Rice. Worst case for Tony Gonzalez, he ages like a TE and this is his last year as an impact player. Best case for Tony Gonzalez, he ages like a WR and he has two more years of starter-caliber numbers (maybe one of which is actually high level production, the other of which is mostly a filler season). Actually, I suppose the pipe-dream best case scenario is that he turns into Jerry Rice and he has 6 more years of stud level production left, but I'm more of the opinion that there is only one Jerry Rice. The result is that I don't really view Tony Gonzalez as brimming with top 5 potential going forward.

 

[Hoss_Cartwright]

In a non-PPR league, after Daniels injury I traded him and Matt Moore for Malcom Floyd and Fasano (who I dropped for someone else)

 

[fezic]

Worst case for Tony Gonzalez, he ages like a TE and this is his last year as an impact player. Best case for Tony Gonzalez, he ages like a WR and he has two more years of starter-caliber numbers (maybe one of which is actually high level production, the other of which is mostly a filler season). Actually, I suppose the pipe-dream best case scenario is that he turns into Jerry Rice and he has 6 more years of stud level production left, but I'm more of the opinion that there is only one Jerry Rice. The result is that I don't really view Tony Gonzalez as brimming with top 5 potential going forward.

I get the logic, and for the most part I agree with it. But in one of my leagues I do have Gonzalez, and don't see much reason or benefit in trading him. With a team that's in the mix to win this year, the return I'd get for Gonzo would most definitely not equal the production I'd get to help me this year. If I were rebuilding, I'd be trading him for whatever I could get.

 

[fruity pebbles]

Guy has now had 3 torn ACLs and a torn MCL. His knees have got to be getting near the point of no return.

 

[fezic]

Guy has now had 3 torn ACLs and a torn MCL. His knees have got to be getting near the point of no return.

I've had my share of knee problems and surgeries, and the bad stuff really comes when you have something degenerative - bone or cartilage. Torn ligaments and tendons can be fixed and fixed, from my understanding. Of course, you might run out of places on the bones to place the screws that hold the replacement parts, but ligaments and tendons can be replaced, bone and particularly cartilage issues are worse conditions to have.

 

[puckalicious]

Guy has now had 3 torn ACLs and a torn MCL. His knees have got to be getting near the point of no return.

Is this true? How many knees does he have? I was planning to hold him but this gives me pause.

 

[fruity pebbles]

Guy has now had 3 torn ACLs and a torn MCL. His knees have got to be getting near the point of no return.

Is this true? How many knees does he have? I was planning to hold him but this gives me pause.

lol, yeah he's torn one acl twice and the other once. also tore an mcl. from the previous poster, i agree that degenerative cartilage conditions are more serious but that's typically how they occur, repeated knee trauma. Nobody goes in for microfracture as their first surgery. Its always after a number of knee traumas.

 

[SSOG]

Guy has now had 3 torn ACLs and a torn MCL. His knees have got to be getting near the point of no return.

Is this true? How many knees does he have? I was planning to hold him but this gives me pause.

lol, yeah he's torn one acl twice and the other once. also tore an mcl. from the previous poster, i agree that degenerative cartilage conditions are more serious but that's typically how they occur, repeated knee trauma. Nobody goes in for microfracture as their first surgery. Its always after a number of knee traumas.

Also, repeated tendon tears generally either indicate that the initial repair surgery was botched (see: Ingram, Cornelius) or that the player has weaker tendons than the average NFL player (see: Dukes, Wesley). Since the tears have occurred in multiple knees, it's quite possible that Daniels falls into the latter group.