Dynasty: Who is your top RB? (1 Viewer)

[lbouchard]

I'm on my phone, but if I recall correctly, it seemed like Morris was getting more passing game usage towards the end of the year. I think he had like 7 catches in the last 3 games or something. If he only averaged 2 catches, that's still 32 on the season-which would be around 3x more than he got last season (11).

5 catches in the last 3 games which would average out to 26.6 over the season.But if you averaged out his last 3 games over a season he'd have 437/2016/37 in rushing. So, I don't think that really works.

Yeah, 3 games is way too small of a sample size, especially for a stat like that(RB receptions) when a couple of receptions can really make a big difference when trying to use that number to project a full season's worth.

Yeah, I wasn't really trying to project a full season, just saying that towards the end of the year, it seemed like Shanahan started to trust Morris more with catching the ball. It might be something to monitor going into next year.

 

[Concept Coop]

Yeah, I wasn't really trying to project a full season, just saying that towards the end of the year, it seemed like Shanahan started to trust Morris more with catching the ball. It might be something to monitor going into next year.

Shanny said as much, and Royster's snaps went down. He'll never be Ray Rice, but could easily double (at least) his 2012 totals.

 

[ConnSKINS26]

I'm on my phone, but if I recall correctly, it seemed like Morris was getting more passing game usage towards the end of the year. I think he had like 7 catches in the last 3 games or something. If he only averaged 2 catches, that's still 32 on the season-which would be around 3x more than he got last season (11).

5 catches in the last 3 games which would average out to 26.6 over the season.But if you averaged out his last 3 games over a season he'd have 437/2016/37 in rushing. So, I don't think that really works.

Yeah, 3 games is way too small of a sample size, especially for a stat like that(RB receptions) when a couple of receptions can really make a big difference when trying to use that number to project a full season's worth.

Yeah, I wasn't really trying to project a full season, just saying that towards the end of the year, it seemed like Shanahan started to trust Morris more with catching the ball. It might be something to monitor going into next year.

The wild card here on passing downs is Chris Thompson.

 

[meyerj31]

I would love to be in a dynasty league you guys.

T-Rich, Martin, Spiller, a couple WRs (AJ, Calvin)? That would leave AP 6, Foster 7, McCoy 8, Lynch 9, Charles 10, Rice 11, Morris 12, or whatever variation of order.

If you let AP fall to 6, that guy should win the opening year of the dynasty. You guys are giving way too much weight to how old a player is.

I feel the same way ... in my recent dynasty draft AP went 10th overall. I could not believe it.

To you right?

No. I took Calvin 1st.

I would have taken AP if I had to take a running back, though. In a 3-year window what RB is going to score more points than him? Nobody.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

I would have taken AP if I had to take a running back, though. In a 3-year window what RB is going to score more points than him? Nobody.

Ehhhhh I don't think it's that clear cut personally. As epic as Peterson's 2012 was, Foster crushed Peterson's 2012 PPG numbers in both 2010 and 2011. Rice and McCoy both were better in PPG in 2011 than was 2012 Peterson. Charles has been a top 10 RB for years with some of the worst offensive coaching I've ever seen, now he has a new QB and a great offensive coach who likes to have his RB lead the team in catches. What can CJ Spiller do with new coaching and a full feature workload? Doug Martin was a hair behind ADP as a rookie, and the Bucs look to be on the upswing. And so on.Bottom line is that in PPR scoring Peterson, at 2 catches for 17 yards / game over his career, is fighting an uphill battle trying to catch guys who routinely double him up in receptions and receiving yards. Given the scoring system there are other guys with more upside and consistency IMO.

 

[Borden]

I wouldn't argue with anyone about taking Foster over AP but the other guys I have to disagree with.

If you don't look at from a fantasy point of view I think everyone in the football world can agree that Peterson is the best back in the league (expect Chris Johnson) and pretty much a hall of famer already. We aren't discussing that though we are discussing PPR dynasty value. So, in a quick break down:

Ray Rice: Love him but their offense seems to be flowing to Flacco now instead of Rice.

Charles: Stud and he catches lots of balls. However, he seems to lose redzone touches and doesn't find the endzone has much as I'd like. A new coach should help him but it might hurt him too.

McCoy: Looks like Chip is going to run the ball but Bryce Brown also looked good and will we see Brown eat into his carries?

Spiller: Shows tons of upside but hasn't proven it over a full season and Fred Jackson will vulture carries. As a Bills fan I've been waiting for Spiller step up. Last year it looked like he did but I've seeing lots of stuff about two back sets, using Spiller in the slot, and such. It still seems like Jackson is going to be involved enough to hurt Spillers numbers.

Martin: I have a man crush on Doug. Love how he runs, his line, his coach and personality but he only has one year in the league and he won't catch any team off guard this year.

Peterson: Best real life RB. Amazing line. Offense is geared around him. Does not share carries. Extensive body of work. Can handle a heavy work load. Gets into the endzone. And if you count his injury year he caught 43 in'09, 36 in '10, and 40 in '12. So, it's not like he doesn't catch the ball.

I'm not saying that any of the other guys are bad picks or don't have potential to be the #1 FF RB but AP has the highest probability of being #1 and the lowest floor.

 

[EBF]

Peterson just rushed for 2100 yards and still only averaged about 2 ppg more than Doug Martin in my ppr leagues.

I think last year's monster numbers have really inflated his dynasty value. He's 28 and he doesn't catch passes. He's always been one of the best backs in the league, but never leaps and bounds beyond the competition from a FF standpoint. He only ranked as RB9 in ppg in 2011. RB5 in 2010. RB2 in 2009 (three guys behind him were within .7 ppg).

Ranking him as a top 2-3 dynasty player is a perfect example of overpaying for past production. The guy was a beast for six seasons between 2007-2012, but that production is dead and gone. All that matters now is the future, and I'm not spending a top 10 pick on a 28 year old RB. It's like buying Moss after his first season in New England or Tomlinson circa 2007. Even if his effectiveness doesn't drop (which it probably will), his trade value will plummet over the next two seasons.

No reason to take him as RB1 when you can get younger players like Richardson, Martin, and McCoy who might be a coin flip to outscore him this year, let alone in future years.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

No reason to take him as RB1 when you can get younger players who might be a coin flip to outscore him this year, let alone in future years.

Exactly this. Peterson is a top-5 or so all-time great NFL RB IMO. He's a freak of nature. But he hasn't been a lap the field type PPR fantasy performer over the course of his career, largely due to lack of use as a receiver and crappy overall support on offense. I personally think a return to his career averages moving forward is far more likely than a repeat of last year, which makes him pretty equivalent short term to the Martins, McCoys, etc (insert your personal top < 25 dudes here). And any way you slice it the much younger guys do have a shelf life advantage.Put him in Houston, and yeah, he's gonna crank out the 2400+ YFS / 20+ type seasons IMO. But the fact is in Minnesota he simply hasn't.

 

[Biabreakable]

Peterson just rushed for 2100 yards and still only averaged about 2 ppg more than Doug Martin in my ppr leagues.

I think last year's monster numbers have really inflated his dynasty value. He's 28 and he doesn't catch passes. He's always been one of the best backs in the league, but never leaps and bounds beyond the competition from a FF standpoint. He only ranked as RB9 in ppg in 2011. RB5 in 2010. RB2 in 2009 (three guys behind him were within .7 ppg).

Ranking him as a top 2-3 dynasty player is a perfect example of overpaying for past production. The guy was a beast for six seasons between 2007-2012, but that production is dead and gone. All that matters now is the future, and I'm not spending a top 10 pick on a 28 year old RB. It's like buying Moss after his first season in New England or Tomlinson circa 2007. Even if his effectiveness doesn't drop (which it probably will), his trade value will plummet over the next two seasons.

No reason to take him as RB1 when you can get younger players like Richardson, Martin, and McCoy who might be a coin flip to outscore him this year, let alone in future years.

It is a bit more than a coin flip.

Priest Holmes had the best 3 seasons of his career from age 28-30. No reason to think Peterson cannot also have some very productive seasons during this time frame of his career as well.

I agree that Peterson will lose trade value because of his age moving forward and because of that he does not have as much value in a start up draft as the younger players.

In an existing league he would have more value to an established team contending for a title for the next 3 seasons. If Peterson could somehow be had for a reasonable cost (due to owner concern about exit value) that is something I would move heaven and earth to make happen.

 

[fightingillini]

Peterson just rushed for 2100 yards and still only averaged about 2 ppg more than Doug Martin in my ppr leagues.

I think last year's monster numbers have really inflated his dynasty value. He's 28 and he doesn't catch passes. He's always been one of the best backs in the league, but never leaps and bounds beyond the competition from a FF standpoint. He only ranked as RB9 in ppg in 2011. RB5 in 2010. RB2 in 2009 (three guys behind him were within .7 ppg).

Ranking him as a top 2-3 dynasty player is a perfect example of overpaying for past production. The guy was a beast for six seasons between 2007-2012, but that production is dead and gone. All that matters now is the future, and I'm not spending a top 10 pick on a 28 year old RB. It's like buying Moss after his first season in New England or Tomlinson circa 2007. Even if his effectiveness doesn't drop (which it probably will), his trade value will plummet over the next two seasons.

No reason to take him as RB1 when you can get younger players like Richardson, Martin, and McCoy who might be a coin flip to outscore him this year, let alone in future years.

Agree with this 100%. I would take Richardson and Martin all day any day over Peterson in a dynasty league for the exact reasons EBF said. You can get 2 years of elite production from Richardson or Martin and then trade them for a king's ransom, when statistics tell you RBs will likely start wearing down.

Now Peterson is a freak of nature and I don't expect him to break down this year or next. But his trade value won't be close in 2015 to Richardson or Martin.

Couple of tiny comments.....

1) I wouldn't say Peterson doesn't catch passes.....he just doesn't catch as many in relation to other elite backs, which narrows the gap between Peterson and the other elite backs. In 2013, Peterson will still likely be the #1 RB in FF. But I would think that Richardson and Martin will likely will exceed Peterson if you add up the next 3 years combined, due to the increased chance that Peterson breaks down in 2014 or 2015.

2) Martin's year in 2012 was inflated by 2 really huge games, 1 being a record setting performance. Both Peterson and Martin are likely to come back a litlle in 2013, so I still think Peterson will still outperform Martin by at least 1-1.5 ppg. That's still a pretty wide margin. 2 ppg is a pretty wide variance between Peterson and a RB who finished in the top 3 RBs in most formats.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

In 2013, Peterson will still likely be the #1 RB in FF.

I've owned Peterson his whole career, and have been a huge fan of his the whole time. That said, this assumption boggles my mind and is one that is leading people to rank Peterson, as a 28 year old running back, much higher than they should be in dynasty formats.

To the contrary of what I quoted above, it is unlikely that Peterson will be the #1 RB in FF in 2013. If I'm not mistaken, he has only done it once in his career and that was this past year during a career year in which he ran for 2100 yards. History tells us there is an extremely small chance of this being repeated, and his rushing yards will almost certainly drop, likely by a fairly significant amount.

He's not going to run for 2100 yards again and he's not going to rattle off 6ypc again. With that reduced, his limited use in the passing game and the lack of redzone opportunities provided by Minnesota are going to make it difficult for him to finish as the #1 RB, as has been the case for the majority of his career.

 

[jurb26]

Here are my rankings for PPR as of now. I have to say, I am surprised that the guy I put at the top of the list is also leading the vote.

1. Richardson, elite talent, great oline, center of his offense and catches plenty of passes.

2. Martin, see Richardson comments but change elite talent to very good talent.

3. Charles, probably a good deal higher than many but I'm expecting him to catch 60+ passes in a Reid run offense. PPR increases his value greatly.

4. Peterson, best RB in the game with at least 3 years of top production left in him. PPR devaules him though.

5. McCoy, he could be underrated by me right now but I'm uncertain about how he will perform in the new offense with a new coaching staff.

6. Foster, great back in a great situation.

7. Spiller, he is the future of the Bills offense and talented enough to capitalize on the opportunities he will receive.

8. C. Johnson, yeah that guy. I'm sure I got him much higher than most but I think the revamped oline is going to make him extremely productive the next 2 or 3 years.

9. Rice, pretty low on Rice due to the presence of Pierce. I think Pierce continues to steal valuable touches from Rice over the next 2 years.

10. Wilson/Miller, I've got a tie at 10 with these guys. Both guys I loved out of college and both guys I think are on the verge of breakout seasons. I have a hard time separating who I like more but Miller seems easier to attain.