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Eagles at Rams - SNF - Prime Time BDN (1 Viewer)

renesauz said:
Nope...FG ends it period, and it's well within his range.

ON a punt, might only net 18
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Why are you caring about the net?  If the punter pins them down within the 15 (which in that situation should be easy), game is over.  The only chance the Rams had was a missed FG

 
fred_1_15301 said:
Why are you caring about the net?  If the punter pins them down within the 15 (which in that situation should be easy), game is over.  The only chance the Rams had was a missed FG
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seriously....Rams need a TD either way with no timeouts. Starting from the 15 isn't THAT much harder in that spot then starting from the 40. Hit the 51 yard FG (which is NOT THAT FAR!! and it wouldn't matter.

Absolutely the right call to kick it

 
the rover said:
no.   it was a stupid call.   better to burn clock and give the rams a longer field than try a long FG
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Agreed.  It wasn't an easy field goal. On the other hand, it would have been easy for the punter to pin the Rams within the 15 (which almost certainly ends the game)

 
renesauz said:
seriously....Rams need a TD either way with no timeouts. Starting from the 15 isn't THAT much harder in that spot then starting from the 40. Hit the 51 yard FG (which is NOT THAT FAR!! and it wouldn't matter.

Absolutely the right call to kick it
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Did you really just say that an extra 25 yards tacked on wouldn't make it that much harder? What?

 
renesauz said:
seriously....Rams need a TD either way with no timeouts. Starting from the 15 isn't THAT much harder in that spot then starting from the 40. Hit the 51 yard FG (which is NOT THAT FAR!! and it wouldn't matter.

Absolutely the right call to kick it
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You don't think 25 yards makes a difference with a minute to go?  Well I guess we disagree then.

 
WE WON WE WON WE WON!!!!! HOW? I don't know but Sidney Jones also wasn't playing either and the Secondary looked better.

 
ConnSKINS26 said:
Did you really just say that an extra 25 yards tacked on wouldn't make it that much harder? What?
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Clearly, it would make it harder, but not by THAT much. But you know what would make it EVEN HARDER? HItting the FG...which at 51 yards in perfect conditions was a pretty good bet to make it.

Either way Rams were in rough spot..and Eagles win !  :)

 
this is truly crazy:

This group was outstanding for most of the game, but McVay's play calling early contributed to it.

Adam Caplan✔@caplannfl

#Eagles have 5 CBs active:
Avonte Maddox (2018 4th round-playing 2 injuries)
Rasul Douglas (2017 3rd round)
Cre'Von LeBlanc (UDFA 2016-signed as street FA 11/5)
De'Vante Bausby (UDFA 2015-signed from PS 11/17)
Chandon Sullivan (UDFA 2018-signed from PS 10/25)#PHIvsLA #PHIvsLAR

 
modogg said:
this is truly crazy:

This group was outstanding for most of the game, but McVay's play calling early contributed to it.

Adam Caplan✔@caplannfl

#Eagles have 5 CBs active:
Avonte Maddox (2018 4th round-playing 2 injuries)
Rasul Douglas (2017 3rd round)
Cre'Von LeBlanc (UDFA 2016-signed as street FA 11/5)
De'Vante Bausby (UDFA 2015-signed from PS 11/17)
Chandon Sullivan (UDFA 2018-signed from PS 10/25)#PHIvsLA #PHIvsLAR
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wow

 
modogg said:
this is truly crazy:

This group was outstanding for most of the game, but McVay's play calling early contributed to it.

Adam Caplan✔@caplannfl

#Eagles have 5 CBs active:
Avonte Maddox (2018 4th round-playing 2 injuries)
Rasul Douglas (2017 3rd round)
Cre'Von LeBlanc (UDFA 2016-signed as street FA 11/5)
De'Vante Bausby (UDFA 2015-signed from PS 11/17)
Chandon Sullivan (UDFA 2018-signed from PS 10/25)#PHIvsLA #PHIvsLAR
Click to expand...
Even a few minutes into the game when the Rams seemed to be running a good bit Joe Banner tweeted “Do the Rams know who’s in the Eagles secondary?”

These guys played really well tonight 

 
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fred_1_15301 said:
You don't think 25 yards makes a difference with a minute to go?  Well I guess we disagree then.
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I really don't understand why they wouldn't have kicked it.  It's so easy to say in hindsight.  But if he hits that 51 yarder (he's 70% career from 50+ yards), then the game is officially over.

Had they punted and the rams drove the field and scored, do you know how many people would be drilling Doug on why he didn't kick the FG and end it?  When his kicker has been successful from that length more than he hasn't?

Absolutely the right call to kick that FG there to win it.  If it was a 40 yarder would you say they should have?  What about 41?  Not sure where you draw the line, but Jake has always made as many as he's missed from that distance, and the conditions were perfect.

renesauz said:
Nope...FG ends it period, and it's well within his range.

ON a punt, might only net 18
Click to expand...
This as well.  Punt could net as much as Goff could throw in one play.  Everyone praises (praised?) Doug for his aggressiveness, and going for a FG we had a 50%+ chance on was exactly that.

 
Deamon said:
I really don't understand why they wouldn't have kicked it.  It's so easy to say in hindsight.  But if he hits that 51 yarder (he's 70% career from 50+ yards), then the game is officially over.

Had they punted and the rams drove the field and scored, do you know how many people would be drilling Doug on why he didn't kick the FG and end it?  When his kicker has been successful from that length more than he hasn't?

Absolutely the right call to kick that FG there to win it.  If it was a 40 yarder would you say they should have?  What about 41?  Not sure where you draw the line, but Jake has always made as many as he's missed from that distance, and the conditions were perfect.

This as well.  Punt could net as much as Goff could throw in one play.  Everyone praises (praised?) Doug for his aggressiveness, and going for a FG we had a 50%+ chance on was exactly that.
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I draw the line at about where they were on the field.  I believe that the difference in 25-30 yards is big considering the Rams had zero timeouts left.  

But if you’re telling me he is 70% from that ranges, that changes my perspective a little.  I basically give the Rams about a 10% chance to drive 85-90 yards in a minute with zero timeouts (especially given how bad Goff looked most of the game).  Starting from their own 40, I would give them about a 30% chance. So according to the numbers that i admittedly pulled completely out my ###, kicking the FG was the right decision (by about 1%).   

 
You have to kick the FG there, no question, unless you have a kicker you KNOW can't make the kick.  A make and it's a guarantee win. A miss or a punt gives you a chance to lose.

 
babydemon90 said:
You have to kick the FG there, no question, unless you have a kicker you KNOW can't make the kick.  A make and it's a guarantee win. A miss or a punt gives you a chance to lose.
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No it’s an exercise in probability.  I laid out some hypothetical  numbers in my previous post.  Even if I’m close with my percentages, the decision is a lot closer than what people think (regardless of which side of the fence you’re on)

 
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Deamon said:
I really don't understand why they wouldn't have kicked it.  It's so easy to say in hindsight.  But if he hits that 51 yarder (he's 70% career from 50+ yards), then the game is officially over.

Had they punted and the rams drove the field and scored, do you know how many people would be drilling Doug on why he didn't kick the FG and end it?  When his kicker has been successful from that length more than he hasn't?

Absolutely the right call to kick that FG there to win it.  If it was a 40 yarder would you say they should have?  What about 41?  Not sure where you draw the line, but Jake has always made as many as he's missed from that distance, and the conditions were perfect.

This as well.  Punt could net as much as Goff could throw in one play.  Everyone praises (praised?) Doug for his aggressiveness, and going for a FG we had a 50%+ chance on was exactly that.
Click to expand...
yeah, I didn't have a strong opinion either way, but if he is 70% from over 50, going for the kick made the most sense

 
Wasn't just the 70% (and remembering it was barely over 50), it was perfect conditions. I wouldn't have called punting there a terrible call, but the FG try was, IMHO, the better call.

 
fred_1_15301 said:
I draw the line at about where they were on the field.  I believe that the difference in 25-30 yards is big considering the Rams had zero timeouts left.  

But if you’re telling me he is 70% from that ranges, that changes my perspective a little.  I basically give the Rams about a 10% chance to drive 85-90 yards in a minute with zero timeouts (especially given how bad Goff looked most of the game).  Starting from their own 40, I would give them about a 30% chance. So according to the numbers that i admittedly pulled completely out my ###, kicking the FG was the right decision (by about 1%).   
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But it wasn't from their own 40, it was from their own 34. I think that changes those odds a little.  I'd give them a 25 percent chance to go 66 yards and a 15 percent chance to go 87 yards. 

Given the 70 percent from 50+ (add in field conditions, and the fact that it was only 1 yard over 50, it should be higher than that but we'll conservatively go with the 70 percent), then I think it's an easy call. 

 
Deamon said:
But it wasn't from their own 40, it was from their own 34. I think that changes those odds a little.  I'd give them a 25 percent chance to go 66 yards and a 15 percent chance to go 87 yards. 

Given the 70 percent from 50+ (add in field conditions, and the fact that it was only 1 yard over 50, it should be higher than that but we'll conservatively go with the 70 percent), then I think it's an easy call. 
Click to expand...
Yeah I forgot that they get the ball at where the ball is snapped and not where it’s kicked.  When I made the original post last night, I had no idea he was 70% from that distance.  That’s pretty good.  Agree it’s a good call to go for a kick.  Still think punting would have been fine as well

 
fred_1_15301 said:
No it’s an exercise in probability.  I laid out some hypothetical  numbers in my previous post.  Even if I’m close with my percentages, the decision is a lot closer than what people think (regardless of which side of the fence you’re on)
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i'm sure that you could find the exact WPA numbers for each piece of the scenario if you want to be more specific about what the "right" decision was.

 
Long Ball Larry said:
i'm sure that you could find the exact WPA numbers for each piece of the scenario if you want to be more specific about what the "right" decision was.
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Probably but I have no clue how to find those numbers.  Nor do I have the inclination.  I think it was a close call.  Not ready to concede that it was a slam dunk in either direction.  

 
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