Eagles Preseason Fantasy report (1 Viewer)

[KillerToad]

Ok, I've written an Eagles report for another site for a few years now. But since I've been leaching off of you guys for the past 3 years for football knowledge I felt it was time to give back to the group that won me 3 championships in 3 years. Sorry if I put this in the wrong spot but I didn't see another spot for it. I hope it helps.

The Eagles offense is heading into this season without someone named McNabb or Westbrook for the first time in 12 years. Now any NFL team coming into a new season with a new starting QB and RB is expected to get more than it's fair share of lumps. No Eagles fan no matter how hard core, can possibly expect them to make the playoffs this year, especially after how they have looked in the preseason. Yeah yeah it's preseason you say, but this starting offense has accounted for 1 TD in 3 games. That TD comes with an asterisk because Vick was under center for that handoff to McCoy, instead of Kolb. Now the old Toad would be screaming "Why the heck would Reid take Kolb out of the game on the first drive of the game inside the redzone, when this new QB is trying to solidify his leadership and confidence of the team?" But I promised Eric I'd lay off Andy this year so I'll let it pass. Regardless, the offensive line has looked pathetic all camp. They are bad, real bad. They just traded for G Reggie Wells from the Cards tonight, that's how bad they are. That combined with the two new starters at QB and RB equals a long season for Philly fans.

One high note, the Eagles defense looks fantastic. The rookie pickups, safety Nate Allen and DE Brandon Graham, look like studs and the return of MLB Stewart Bradley has lit a fire under this squad. They look to be a top 5 fantasy defense once again this year.

Okay down to the fantasy predictions...

QBs

Kevin Kolb: Kolb is nothing like McNabb. McNabb came from a Syracuse option offense which utilized lots of motion after the snap, they hardly ever used the shotgun. People forget how fast McNabb was when he got to the NFL and how he was able to fake out defenders in the open field. On top of that he had (and still has) a missile launcher for an arm, he can throw the ball 80 yards in the air on a dead run. His negatives were his lack of touch on short and midrange passes and his tendency to take bad sacks instead of throwing the ball into tight coverage. He is 1st in INT percentage for active QBs and 2nd all time in the NFL. He took heat for not being a vocal leader on or off the field.

Kolb on the other hand came from a spread offense in Houston. He almost always used the shotgun formation and excels in his touch and precision on short and midrange passes. He has a very quick release and isn't afraid to throw into a tight window. He is a very vocal leader on and off the field and unlike McNabb is willing to take criticism on his shoulders. He has won this young team over in a short time and they are ready to play for him.

His negatives are very obvious at this level. Kolb doesn't check down to the 5th and 6th option like McNabb did and he will make bad INTs instead of taking bad sacks. Teams are going to throw the kitchen sink at him until he can consistently prove that he can beat the blitz with his quick reads. He doesn't have the deep ball strength nor the speed and agility that McNabb did to break open bad plays. While McNabb was vocally criticized for throwing passes in the dirt, Kolb will get buried for the sheer amount of INTs that he will toss this season... a number that Eagles fans just aren't used to. But have no doubt there WILL NOT be any QB controversy here. This team will live and die with Kolb all year. He will show enough signs of brilliance and put up enough stats to make him a borderline starter on 12 team leagues. He could be an absolute steal in dynasty leagues, get him now while he's doing bad early in the season for a low price. Once he gets his feet wet and gets a good offensive line in front of him, Kolb will be a very decent 2nd tier QB for years to come. Have patience.

Vick is not a fantasy option even if Kolb gets hurt.

Kevin Kolb: 3700 yards passing, 23 TDs, 16 INTs

RBs

LeSean McCoy: This is probably the toughest position to call this year for the Eagles offense. McCoy is a smaller RB out of the same mold as Westbrook but plays much differently. At 5'10" and 215 LBS he is slightly larger than Westbrook was, yet he doesn't have the innate strength that Westbrook had. Westbrook was a devastating blocker able to single handedly take on blitzers twice his size. He was able to consistently rush up the middle and had a 2nd gear to turn a 3 yard gain into a 12 yarder, he was also one of the best receiving RBs I have ever seen.

McCoy is bigger and faster than Westbrook, but is a huge downgrade when it comes to blocking and rushing up the gut. He also dropped several easy screen passes early last year, but I'm willing to credit that to rookie jitters. Later in the year his pass catching improved greatly. While he has impressive open field speed and will outrun most any LB in the league one on one, he doesn't have that ankle snapping direction changing quickness that Westbrook had in his prime. McCoy showed a great inability to continue the play past the first contact by a defenseman last year. He had a solid 4.1 YPR average in his rookie season, but so many of those plays were ended on one on one open field tackles where Westbrook would have continued for 10 or more yards at the same age.

The Eagles tried to answer that problem by signing Mike Bell off of the Saints this season as a short yardage back. But Bell's hamstring has all but left him sidelined and worthless all preseason, so who knows what the #### he will be able to do for the Eagles this year. FB Leonard Weaver is a true gamer who I love, but Reid never gives him more than 3 - 4 touches an entire game, instead using him as a blocker or decoy. So the only RB for the Eagles that I can honestly tell you to draft is McCoy. He won't break 1000 yards rushing, but as the only show in town he should get enough points to be a very solid #2 RB on your fantasy team. He's no Westbrook at this age, but he should stay healthy and he will get plenty of touches to land him in the top 15 RBs this year.

LeSean "Shady" McCoy: 850 yards rushing, 350 yards receiving, 9 TDs

WRs

This is without a doubt, the greatest group of receivers the Eagles have ever had in my lifetime. It's worth repeating, the greatest group of receivers I have ever seen on the Eagles in my lifetime. I started watching them when Carmichael was the man. I loved Arkansas Fred and Calvin Williams, and am not belittling what TO meant for this team. But this group eclipses all of the rest. I will put DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, Jason Avant, and Riley Cooper against any 4 Wrs on any team in the league today. I invite arguments to the contrary, convince me I'm wrong, this is the best WR lineup top to bottom in the NFL. This is what the team will be based on for the next generation, this is the strength of this offense, this is what their Super Bowl hopes will be based on in the next decade as they mature.

Many, many people are pissed as hell that McNabb wasn't given the chance to play with this group. But I am no longer one of them. These guys are all young, along with their starting RB they needed a young QB to grow and learn with to achieve their greatness together. Not play half their careers with an older vet then learn to play all over again with a new QB the 2nd half of their careers. It was the right decision at the right time to bring Kolb in now. I'll drink the Kool Aid.

But with a new QB, everything you think about them has to be tossed out the window. I haven't even talked about TE Celek yet, (who is Kolb's best friend and roommate). In this early preseason, Maclin has been Kolbs favorite target. He has thrown Maclin's way 43% of the time in the preseason's passing attack. Remember, Jackson was McNabbs deep threat, Maclin was the underneath possession guy. Kolb looks the opposite way, short first then long, at least this point in his career. Maclin may actually lead this team in receiving this season. Avant is the perfect 3rd WR, not as fast as the other two but big with incredible hands. He has dropped 1 pass thrown his way... ONE... since training camp started. I'm talking all of training camp even during 3 on 3 drills. Rookie Riley Cooper out of Florida has been the talk of the camp. His speed, hands, and agility have given him many comparisons to Wes Welker by the so called "experts" and quickly cast veterans like Hank Baskett and Kelley Washington in his wake on the team.

Maclin and Jackson will be the unquestioned two starters. But keep an eye on Avant and Cooper in case the starters get hurt. They will be useful pickups if that happens and be ready to jump on them. I gotta believe Jackson gets taken off the special teams as his role as WR1 is more important to the team.

DeSean Jackson: 1000 yards receiving, 7 TDs

Jeremy Maclin: 900 yards receiving, 6 TDs

Jason Avant: 500 yards receiving, 3 TDs

Riley Cooper: 200 yards receiving, 2 TDs

TE

Brent Celek: I've you've been reading my reports for the past few years you'll know I'm a huge Celek fanboy. I watched him single handedly kill my alma mater's chance for a championship bid when he beat Rutgers on an 83 yard TD run when he played for Cincy. I knew when the Eagles drafted him that he was better than that underachieving scrub LJ Smith. Even as Reid inexplicably made Smith his franchise player I told you to wait and be patient. Last year was the payoff. Celek finally got the chance to show what he could do as a starter and didn't disappoint, 971 yards and 8 TDs. He will always be one of my reasons why I hold Reid in contempt. How could a scrub like me know how good Celek was and he didn't? Inexcusable. The only thing that may hurt him this year is the fact that he will be utilized as an extra blocker to bulk up a horrible OLine. But the simple fact that he is Kolb's best friend on the team and his roommate for the past 3 years has to count for some pretty decent stats. I don't care who you are, you are getting your best friend the ball.

Brent Celek: 800 yards receiving, 6 TDs

Ok that's it. No use in predicting the Defense and Special Teams or Akers. They are still in the Top 5 in my opinion, but you draft them where you want.

Good Luck All!!

Toad Out

 

[KillerToad]

44 of you read this so far, feel free to reply...

 

[FantasyTrader]

Good job. Just an observation, you have McCoy, those four WR's and Celek catching 50 yards and 1 TD more than Kolb is going to throw. I realize Vick stands a good chance of accumulating some stats in garbage time over the course of 16 games but the Eagles receiving stats will go a heckuva lot deeper than six names. In any given offense, 8-15% of the passing game will be guys whose names you have a difficult time pronouncing - the FB, backup TE, 5th and 6th WR's, #2 RB, etc.

By the numbers above, either you overshot some of the receivers stats, undershot Kolbs or project him to only start 13-14 games.

Otherwise good job. Also, I disagree on Kolb. You say acquire him now - that his value will only go up in dynasty. No. While I agree that he's going to be a very good QB in this league, the learning curve looms in his first year as a starter. You'll be able to trade for him in week 8 far less than you can get him for right now. His owners are still looking at those 4 touchdowns and over 700 yards in two career starts and basing his trade value on the possible.

His owners are headed for a reality check early on here. Let them experience that. Then trade for him.

 

[Jason Wood]

Not bad. I'm glad you acknowledge Kolb's likely propensity for turnovers. I keep hearing my buddies rave about his accuracy, and I ask them if they really would rather have a 62% passer who throws 2x the INTs as the predecessor who completed slightly fewer passes but had half the turnovers. I guess we'll have our answer soon enough.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

It's about right......the Eagles have made so many changes that they're one of the toughest teams in the league to handicap heading into the season. We know that they weren't a very good running team last year and it doesn't look like they've improved their offensive line from last year, so common sense tells me they aren't going to be a good rushing team. Personally, I think the TD total you have for McCoy (9) is too high. I'll be surprised if he catches/rushes for 9 Td's this year.

I think D. Jackson is underrated this year. Last year, in all of those "if you can pick one player to draft this year who is it threads", my pick was D. Jackson. That was a money pick last year and I believe that he is one of the top 3 most explosive/dangerous players in the league. Jackson will get behind defenses or create enough space underneath with his speed to get his.

The other receivers and Celek, those are tough calls because it depends on how you feel about Kolb. If he has a good year, then their numbers have to be up. I laid off those guys this year in drafts, I could regret it. I think your INT's for Kolb are too low.

I liked the Eagles draft this past year, I said it the day after in here somewhere. I liked that they flooded the draft with defense, defense, defense. In many drafts they're going top 3 in fantasy, I don't have them ranked top 3 there because I do think they're young and that they will give up some points on big plays but they are opportunistic, they always have been.

 

[renesauz]

You said that there's no chance the Eagles make the playoffs, yet a top five defense and the stats you projected suggest they'd be at least on the playoff bubble.

Phily is a tough team to project this year. There's a lot of new faces on defense, and new starting QB and RB, but there's a ton of talent there too. No result from 6-10 to 12-4 should come as a real surprise, with 8 or 9 wins being a reasonable and realistic guess. It will come down to how quickly Kolb grows, and how many picks he throws in critical games.

 

[Jason Wood]

I think the Eagles will probably be 8-8 or 9-7 this year, but if I had to skew on direction or another, I fear a downward bias unlike years past.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

Well, I had McCoy last year, so I watched a fair amount of Eagles games, and I came away mostly unimpressed. I was very impressed with Weaver though.

As for Mike Bell: here's what we learned about in NO: he turned out to be great value when the Saints picked him up off the heap, he was great at short yardage and he became, for a while, a legit closer. Problem was he ran out of steam, became often dinged, and in the Super Bowl he may have been the one dark spot for the Saints' locker room when he pointedly refused to follow instructions from Sean Payton and then missed a potentially crucial score at the goal line and lied about it later, Payton basically showed him the door and looked elsewhere, even at the risk of having poor alternatives.

 

[u999spf]

You may want to hit the edit button and change Mark Bradley to Stewart Bradley. I'm just saying...

 

[KillerToad]

You may want to hit the edit button and change Mark Bradley to Stewart Bradley. I'm just saying...

DOH!!! Sorry about that. I gotta say I don't disagree with any of your critiques. I know the numbers don't add up but I was trying to just hit broad round figures for all of the skill players. Good feedback and Thank you for taking the time to read my writeup.

 

[karmarooster]

you pretty much hit the nail on the head. mostly consensus opinions all around and i agree.

But who's to say McCoy won't make a jump? Ray Rice improved his rushing average 4.2 - 5.3 ypc. Similar skill sets, similar size, similar offenses that throw to the RB often.

however, there are many who think that McCoy is a dud....

ultimately it's anyone's guess.

 

[Arizona Ron]

Kolb will face GB, Det, Jag & Was in the first 4 weeks. GB is solid, Det loaded this year, Jags have a team that no one has on film and the WAS game is full of emotion. I think Kolb is a good talent but he's facing an uncomfortable first 4 games. Even if he puts up good games, Phi could easily drop these first 3 out of 4; Philly fans will unload on Reid making Kolb's life horrible.

I'm sorry man, but I see Kolb could turn into more of a Joey Harrington than an Aaron Rogers.

 

[yesitsme]

Kolb will face GB, Det, Jag & Was in the first 4 weeks. GB is solid, Det loaded this year, Jags have a team that no one has on film and the WAS game is full of emotion. I think Kolb is a good talent but he's facing an uncomfortable first 4 games. Even if he puts up good games, Phi could easily drop these first 3 out of 4; Philly fans will unload on Reid making Kolb's life horrible.I'm sorry man, but I see Kolb could turn into more of a Joey Harrington than an Aaron Rogers.

Detroit may be loaded on offense, and even that is still unproven but they're certainly not loaded on defense. Detroit is exactly the kind of team you want your fantasy QB to face. There's nobody on that team that can stay within 5 yards of Desean Jackson.

 

[G-King]

It's about right......the Eagles have made so many changes that they're one of the toughest teams in the league to handicap heading into the season. We know that they weren't a very good running team last year and it doesn't look like they've improved their offensive line from last year, so common sense tells me they aren't going to be a good rushing team. Personally, I think the TD total you have for McCoy (9) is too high. I'll be surprised if he catches/rushes for 9 Td's this year.

I think D. Jackson is underrated this year. Last year, in all of those "if you can pick one player to draft this year who is it threads", my pick was D. Jackson. That was a money pick last year and I believe that he is one of the top 3 most explosive/dangerous players in the league. Jackson will get behind defenses or create enough space underneath with his speed to get his.

The other receivers and Celek, those are tough calls because it depends on how you feel about Kolb. If he has a good year, then their numbers have to be up. I laid off those guys this year in drafts, I could regret it. I think your INT's for Kolb are too low.

I liked the Eagles draft this past year, I said it the day after in here somewhere. I liked that they flooded the draft with defense, defense, defense. In many drafts they're going top 3 in fantasy, I don't have them ranked top 3 there because I do think they're young and that they will give up some points on big plays but they are opportunistic, they always have been.

D Jackson will HAVE to get behind defenses again to get his scores from long distances (like last year), because the Eagles will be pulling him out inside the ten and passing with Avant, Maclin, and Celek. This hasn't been talked about in any of the other DJax related threads, but my source tells me that is the plan. Based on that info, I am concerned about his TD's this year as I cannot see him having 5-6 50 yard plus TD YAC's again. I would temper expectations...

 

[Pip's Invitation]

It's about right......the Eagles have made so many changes that they're one of the toughest teams in the league to handicap heading into the season. We know that they weren't a very good running team last year and it doesn't look like they've improved their offensive line from last year, so common sense tells me they aren't going to be a good rushing team. Personally, I think the TD total you have for McCoy (9) is too high. I'll be surprised if he catches/rushes for 9 Td's this year.

I think D. Jackson is underrated this year. Last year, in all of those "if you can pick one player to draft this year who is it threads", my pick was D. Jackson. That was a money pick last year and I believe that he is one of the top 3 most explosive/dangerous players in the league. Jackson will get behind defenses or create enough space underneath with his speed to get his.

The other receivers and Celek, those are tough calls because it depends on how you feel about Kolb. If he has a good year, then their numbers have to be up. I laid off those guys this year in drafts, I could regret it. I think your INT's for Kolb are too low.

I liked the Eagles draft this past year, I said it the day after in here somewhere. I liked that they flooded the draft with defense, defense, defense. In many drafts they're going top 3 in fantasy, I don't have them ranked top 3 there because I do think they're young and that they will give up some points on big plays but they are opportunistic, they always have been.

D Jackson will HAVE to get behind defenses again to get his scores from long distances (like last year), because the Eagles will be pulling him out inside the ten and passing with Avant, Maclin, and Celek. This hasn't been talked about in any of the other DJax related threads, but my source tells me that is the plan. Based on that info, I am concerned about his TD's this year as I cannot see him having 5-6 50 yard plus TD YAC's again. I would temper expectations...

That doesn't make any sense. He's the most dangerous player they have. And if you're citing an unnamed source on this board in regards to the Eagles and your name is not Deranged Hermit, I'm less inclined to believe you. Is there a red zone package that does not include him? I'm sure there is. Will they bring out that package all the time? I would very, very much doubt it.

 

[Amused to Death]

That doesn't make any sense. He's the most dangerous player they have. And if you're citing an unnamed source on this board in regards to the Eagles and your name is not Deranged Hermit, I'm less inclined to believe you.

Is there a red zone package that does not include him? I'm sure there is. Will they bring out that package all the time? I would very, very much doubt it.

Then you don't know who G-King's source is (assuming he's been on the level with us - and I'm no less inclined to believe him then DH).

 

[Nagle2998]

Kolb will face GB, Det, Jag & Was in the first 4 weeks. GB is solid, Det loaded this year, Jags have a team that no one has on film and the WAS game is full of emotion. I think Kolb is a good talent but he's facing an uncomfortable first 4 games. Even if he puts up good games, Phi could easily drop these first 3 out of 4; Philly fans will unload on Reid making Kolb's life horrible.I'm sorry man, but I see Kolb could turn into more of a Joey Harrington than an Aaron Rogers.

I have to disagree if this was the hardest four games the Eagles had I would put them at 11-5 right now but it isn't and really it might be the easiest. I think GB is going to beat the Eagles but those other three teams don't really worry me as an Eagles fan. IF they don't win atleast two of them I would be shocked and I think 3 of 4 is very possible and I only have them at 9-7.

 

[renesauz]

That doesn't make any sense. He's the most dangerous player they have. And if you're citing an unnamed source on this board in regards to the Eagles and your name is not Deranged Hermit, I'm less inclined to believe you.

Is there a red zone package that does not include him? I'm sure there is. Will they bring out that package all the time? I would very, very much doubt it.

Then you don't know who G-King's source is (assuming he's been on the level with us - and I'm no less inclined to believe him then DH).

G-King is money on inside Eagles info. But we shouldn't really need his input on this. Philly has some big bodies with reliable hands. Celek and Avant are easy choices in the RZ. Cooper has size and showed he can run/catch a fade. Even Maclin has a slight advantage on Jackson in the short zone and let's not forget the team still has the big-bodied Hank Basket. Jackson's skill set translates better to an open field...with those weapons I can't see him seeing a lot of looks from inside of ten yards or so.I love me some D-Jax as an Eagles fan, but he's been slightly over-rated all summer. Maclin had one bad pre-season game, but he got a lot of targets and may be the better fantasy value.

 

[delusional]

I just don't see Kolb being this next savior that alot of people talk about. Granted it was preseason but it does show you something and that something wasn't WOW!.

If Reid runs the ball like he should have been doing the past few years, it will help with Kolbs progression through the season.

If he has him chucking the ball up 30-40 times a game then it won't.

Track record shows 30-40 times a game chucking the ball up.

His online is going to get him killed btw. Granted the late addition of Wells is great and a huge improvement but you still have to worry about Jackson coming back so fast, Herremans foot and Peters not living up to "best LT in the league" label Reid gave him. Not to mention the depth here is not good at all. Kolb is going to force alot of throws & get picked. People may have #####ed about "worm burners" but ill take that over a change of possession deep in my zone.

 

[G-King]

It's about right......the Eagles have made so many changes that they're one of the toughest teams in the league to handicap heading into the season. We know that they weren't a very good running team last year and it doesn't look like they've improved their offensive line from last year, so common sense tells me they aren't going to be a good rushing team. Personally, I think the TD total you have for McCoy (9) is too high. I'll be surprised if he catches/rushes for 9 Td's this year.

I think D. Jackson is underrated this year. Last year, in all of those "if you can pick one player to draft this year who is it threads", my pick was D. Jackson. That was a money pick last year and I believe that he is one of the top 3 most explosive/dangerous players in the league. Jackson will get behind defenses or create enough space underneath with his speed to get his.

The other receivers and Celek, those are tough calls because it depends on how you feel about Kolb. If he has a good year, then their numbers have to be up. I laid off those guys this year in drafts, I could regret it. I think your INT's for Kolb are too low.

I liked the Eagles draft this past year, I said it the day after in here somewhere. I liked that they flooded the draft with defense, defense, defense. In many drafts they're going top 3 in fantasy, I don't have them ranked top 3 there because I do think they're young and that they will give up some points on big plays but they are opportunistic, they always have been.

D Jackson will HAVE to get behind defenses again to get his scores from long distances (like last year), because the Eagles will be pulling him out inside the ten and passing with Avant, Maclin, and Celek. This hasn't been talked about in any of the other DJax related threads, but my source tells me that is the plan. Based on that info, I am concerned about his TD's this year as I cannot see him having 5-6 50 yard plus TD YAC's again. I would temper expectations...

That doesn't make any sense. He's the most dangerous player they have. And if you're citing an unnamed source on this board in regards to the Eagles and your name is not Deranged Hermit, I'm less inclined to believe you. Is there a red zone package that does not include him? I'm sure there is. Will they bring out that package all the time? I would very, very much doubt it.

Hey my man, thats your perogative to immediately say I'm a liar. I have never questioned DH and take everything he passes on as the truth. Why would he lie? He wouldn't... and I wouldn't either. But you feel free to ignore any info I get (which as some know, is FIRST HAND), and I will make you look like a fool. Better yet, just skip my post completely and continue getting your info from the ticker on ESPN

 

[G-King]

That doesn't make any sense. He's the most dangerous player they have. And if you're citing an unnamed source on this board in regards to the Eagles and your name is not Deranged Hermit, I'm less inclined to believe you.

Is there a red zone package that does not include him? I'm sure there is. Will they bring out that package all the time? I would very, very much doubt it.

Then you don't know who G-King's source is (assuming he's been on the level with us - and I'm no less inclined to believe him then DH).

Thanks Amused, I can assure my inside is right on top of what is going on with the Eagles. Why the heck else would a life long Boy's fan be trading in his blue star for a bird?

 

[G-King]

That doesn't make any sense. He's the most dangerous player they have. And if you're citing an unnamed source on this board in regards to the Eagles and your name is not Deranged Hermit, I'm less inclined to believe you.

Is there a red zone package that does not include him? I'm sure there is. Will they bring out that package all the time? I would very, very much doubt it.

Then you don't know who G-King's source is (assuming he's been on the level with us - and I'm no less inclined to believe him then DH).

G-King is money on inside Eagles info. But we shouldn't really need his input on this. Philly has some big bodies with reliable hands. Celek and Avant are easy choices in the RZ. Cooper has size and showed he can run/catch a fade. Even Maclin has a slight advantage on Jackson in the short zone and let's not forget the team still has the big-bodied Hank Basket. Jackson's skill set translates better to an open field...with those weapons I can't see him seeing a lot of looks from inside of ten yards or so.I love me some D-Jax as an Eagles fan, but he's been slightly over-rated all summer. Maclin had one bad pre-season game, but he got a lot of targets and may be the better fantasy value.

Exactly. They want their bigger receivers in. You nailed it.