IMO Ryan is the last of the qb you want this year behind ar, brees, Brady, stafford and cam. I hate Vick and romo this year but you could get lucky and have somebody take them ahead of Ryan. If you are a top 5 pick in a 12 teamer, chances of Ryan coming back to you in the 4th are very slim. Therefore you'd have to take him at 3.4/3.5. Which I am heavily considering. My draft wast based on getting stafford in rd 5 last year and I missed him by one pick. I think Ryan is this years stafford. However it's gonna be really tough to pass on whatever wr is there for me at 3.4
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Earliest You Will Consider Matt Ryan (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter RalphMouth
- Start date
jurb26
Footballguy
The thing is I just don't see Ryan as that much more likely to explode than guys like Cutler (7th round adp) and Schaud (9th round adp) and he will cost you at least a 4th rounder at this point. To me the smart play is to try and get a Cutler/Schaub combo, increase your odds of a break out, pay a lower price and hege your bets more.
Mark Wimer
Moderator
In a passing-TD-heavy scoring league (pass TD = 5 points, rushing receiving = 6) which is a start one QB, two-flex player league, I selected Ryan at 1.11. In fact, I now have him ranked at 12th overall on my redraft board - just behind Aaron Rodgers. I think he's in for an absolute monster of a season - just go look at his surgical passing this preseason and the impressive numbers Julio Jones and Roddy White have piled up while playing just parts of these games. Yes, it's preseason, but these guys are looking almost automatic with each other. Atlanta's passing attack is a rocket-ship this year, in my opinion. Ryan last night - 18/26 for 220 yards, one TD and zero interceptions in 2 1/2 quarters of play. And the Falcons are running a vanilla preseason package right now...When will his elevator ride to the top end?Started as a steal in the 6th or 7th round but now he's going in the 4th and 5thbut just heard that he's now going in the third in many leagues.If you draft in the number 1, 2 or 3rd spots this year & grab Foster, McCoy or Rice are you willing to take him somewhere between the 22nd -27th overall picks?
Ramblin Wreck
Footballguy
Exactly. The WR value in Round 3 and early Round 4 is very good. I can't take Ryan over those receivers.
RalphMouth
Footballguy
Mark - what are your projections for Ryan?In a passing-TD-heavy scoring league (pass TD = 5 points, rushing receiving = 6) which is a start one QB, two-flex player league, I selected Ryan at 1.11. In fact, I now have him ranked at 12th overall on my redraft board - just behind Aaron Rodgers. I think he's in for an absolute monster of a season - just go look at his surgical passing this preseason and the impressive numbers Julio Jones and Roddy White have piled up while playing just parts of these games. Yes, it's preseason, but these guys are looking almost automatic with each other. Atlanta's passing attack is a rocket-ship this year, in my opinion. Ryan last night - 18/26 for 220 yards, one TD and zero interceptions in 2 1/2 quarters of play. And the Falcons are running a vanilla preseason package right now...When will his elevator ride to the top end?Started as a steal in the 6th or 7th round but now he's going in the 4th and 5thbut just heard that he's now going in the third in many leagues.If you draft in the number 1, 2 or 3rd spots this year & grab Foster, McCoy or Rice are you willing to take him somewhere between the 22nd -27th overall picks?
12punch
Footballguy
do you have flacco at 13?In a passing-TD-heavy scoring league (pass TD = 5 points, rushing receiving = 6) which is a start one QB, two-flex player league, I selected Ryan at 1.11. In fact, I now have him ranked at 12th overall on my redraft board - just behind Aaron Rodgers. I think he's in for an absolute monster of a season - just go look at his surgical passing this preseason and the impressive numbers Julio Jones and Roddy White have piled up while playing just parts of these games. Yes, it's preseason, but these guys are looking almost automatic with each other. Atlanta's passing attack is a rocket-ship this year, in my opinion. Ryan last night - 18/26 for 220 yards, one TD and zero interceptions in 2 1/2 quarters of play. And the Falcons are running a vanilla preseason package right now...When will his elevator ride to the top end?Started as a steal in the 6th or 7th round but now he's going in the 4th and 5thbut just heard that he's now going in the third in many leagues.If you draft in the number 1, 2 or 3rd spots this year & grab Foster, McCoy or Rice are you willing to take him somewhere between the 22nd -27th overall picks?
David Yudkin
Footballguy
Here's the thing. If you had Ryan ranked the same (11th) before the preseason ever happened then fine. But if you ratcheted him up your rankings based on how things look in the preseason, then I suspect you will be in for disappointment. I admit the Falcons offense looks like a well oiled machine. But I don't see any possible way they play like that when the lights go on for real. On the flip side, the Patriots offense looks like a band of bumbling idiots and as potent offensively as the regular season Rams last year. I don't think I'm uncovering any new ground by suggesting that come Week 1 New England will be the New England of old . . . or better.The problem is preseason football is not NFL football. It's a bunch of football players having a cookout and a few beers and playing a pick up game in someone's backyard. Sure, the Falcons offense is vanilla, but so are the defenses. No one is out trying to kill anyone, starters and backups and future camp casualties are all playing and sometimes together. The brand of football in presesaon games is just below the Pro Bowl.The example I used yesterday was Daunte Culpepper circa 2005. In the preseason games, his completion percentage was 82% with an 11.8 YPA. People were all over him even more than there were the year before. I don't want to spoil the ending for anyone, but let's just say that didn't end well.Preseason football is an exhibition game. Sure, the undrafted free agents and guys clinging to a dream of playing in the NFL are playing hard . . . but those guys aren't top tier talent to begin with.I agree that the Falcons on a whole should be better offensively, but they basically have three guys to catch the football. Now those 3 guys may be really, really good, but I expect defenses to adjust and mitigate the damages. IMO, the other video game-esque passing teams all have multiple, multiple threats and more talented quarterbacks. Maybe Ryan takes a big leap forward this year, but it still doesn't change that here to fore they don't have as many receiving threats as the big boys do.I don't really judge or care where anyone else drafts players. I only care about my team. But in my eyes, there is no way I take Ryan as the #2 QB off the board and leave BOTH Brady and Brees sitting there. (That was the piece of the puzzle that had not been disclosed yet.)My concern in taking Ryan where you did and leaving other players alone is that you are going all in on Ryan. It's risky enough taking a QB early, but you will need Ryan to have one of the best years ever for a QB or your team scoring will suffer. If he scores closer to last year than saw Rodgers last year, you will have a lot of catching up to do scoring wise.
12punch
Footballguy
I think wimer is an example of something that happens a lot, and is kind of the root of this thread -- falling in love with your projections.
nobody gets everything right, but some people are so sold on their own opinions that they trick themselves into believing the future is a known commodity.
there are various undefined probabilities that all these guys will put up various numbers, and it's up to us to make our guesses at those probabilities.
if mark were to peg ryan at 5k/50, I think all he's saying is that he feels there's a higher probability of that happening than some others --- he can't actually know it will happen.
but, if you compare him with guys like brees and brady, who have an actual proven track record of production, how can you say your projection has a higher probability than 2 guys who have proven they can do it?
I'm not making a case to never project anybody to do something they haven't done, but usually when you are doing that you're getting a built in value on the draft spot.
I think this is just a case of somebody who wants to get 'their guy' just so he can say he cashed his projections, regardless of teh probabilities of those projections panning out.
this is basically a homer pick, where mark has become his own home team.
nobody gets everything right, but some people are so sold on their own opinions that they trick themselves into believing the future is a known commodity.
there are various undefined probabilities that all these guys will put up various numbers, and it's up to us to make our guesses at those probabilities.
if mark were to peg ryan at 5k/50, I think all he's saying is that he feels there's a higher probability of that happening than some others --- he can't actually know it will happen.
but, if you compare him with guys like brees and brady, who have an actual proven track record of production, how can you say your projection has a higher probability than 2 guys who have proven they can do it?
I'm not making a case to never project anybody to do something they haven't done, but usually when you are doing that you're getting a built in value on the draft spot.
I think this is just a case of somebody who wants to get 'their guy' just so he can say he cashed his projections, regardless of teh probabilities of those projections panning out.
this is basically a homer pick, where mark has become his own home team.
LionOfGosforth
Footballguy
I took him at 3.5 in my local the other night but he was QB7. Rodgers, Brady and Brees went 1-2-3, I grabbed Rice at 1.5. Stafford went 1.10, Cam went right before I picked round 2 so I took Julio at 2.8. Eli Manning went 3.4, I took Ryan with the next pick, just a bit of background. This league is 6pts for all td's and non-ppr.
Johnny Blood
Footballguy
2013, when some other QB is being unreasonably hyped and his ADP has some chance of dropping to earth.
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Stinkin Ref
IBL Representative
this thread will be a lot fun to revisit during the season....
Yudkin commented about only having 3 guys to throw to....Douglas and Quizz aren't anything to just dismiss.....so I completely disagree....hell even Snelling had 26 last year and avg 7.0 a pop....3 wide is their base set set this year....
i think getting Ryan in the 4th right now is a very solid pick....just not sure he will still be there...
and I know it is hard to look at schedules right now but....
Yudkin commented about only having 3 guys to throw to....Douglas and Quizz aren't anything to just dismiss.....so I completely disagree....hell even Snelling had 26 last year and avg 7.0 a pop....3 wide is their base set set this year....
i think getting Ryan in the 4th right now is a very solid pick....just not sure he will still be there...
and I know it is hard to look at schedules right now but....
LionOfGosforth
Footballguy
There's going to be a lot of "told you so" threads surrounding Ryan this season, can rarely remember such a polarizing pick or a player generating so much debate and counter-debate as to why he should or shouldn't be picked at his ADP.'Stinkin Ref said:this thread will be a lot fun to revisit during the season....Yudkin commented about only having 3 guys to throw to....Douglas and Quizz aren't anything to just dismiss.....so I completely disagree....hell even Snelling had 26 last year and avg 7.0 a pop....3 wide is their base set set this year....i think getting Ryan in the 4th right now is a very solid pick....just not sure he will still be there...and I know it is hard to look at schedules right now but....
freejamaal25
Footballguy
I took him at 3.09 in a 12 team keeper with 6 pt. td's across the board. rodgers, brees, brady, cam, stafford and eli were off the board. had i not taken him there, the guy at 3.12 would have snagged him before he could make it back to me in the 4th.
ryan really started to break out last season. when julio got healthy and settled in towards the end of the year, ryan put up top 5 stats. i looked at the last 8 games for the top 10 qb's according to my leagues scoring rules, and ryan was fifth behind brees, rodgers, brady and stafford. he was ahead of cam, romo, rivers, vick and eli.
i think he'll be 5th at season's end.
ryan really started to break out last season. when julio got healthy and settled in towards the end of the year, ryan put up top 5 stats. i looked at the last 8 games for the top 10 qb's according to my leagues scoring rules, and ryan was fifth behind brees, rodgers, brady and stafford. he was ahead of cam, romo, rivers, vick and eli.
i think he'll be 5th at season's end.
Short Corner
Footballguy
Got him at 5.03 in 12 team redraft with 6 pt TDs.
cubbie5150
Footballguy
12 team redraft, 6 Pts any TD, -2 pts/Int, Ryan went 3.05 yesterday afternoon in a live draft, 5th QB taken.
Ralph Furley
Footballguy
I look at Ryan in two ways. If you are in the top third of your draft, and go Foster, Rice or McCoy...no way I take Ryan earlier than the 4/5 turn. Otherwise, if you are willing to burn a 2/3, just go with Rodgers, Brady, Bree's and a low end RB 1 will fall, ie sStJax, Fred Jackson, etc to pair with the top 3 QB.
I would be very concerned with overpaying for Ryan when you can guys like Eli, Romo, Rivers, Cutler 2 to 3 rounds later.
I would be very concerned with overpaying for Ryan when you can guys like Eli, Romo, Rivers, Cutler 2 to 3 rounds later.
Hipple Long Ware & Peete
Footballguy
i signed up to do a CBS mock an forgot about it. just looked at the team it autodrafted me. 10th pick in a 10 team std + flex. it autopicked me matt ryan aat 4-10 in a ten teamer. You will not be getting Ryan in the 6th ever, and if it's in th fifth you are lucky.
MAC_32
Footballguy
...and after all that I got Ryan in my last draft this weekend.Kept Ray Rice, Julio, and Antonio Brown. Had two early picks since others kept 2nd and 3rd rounders and I kept Julio and Brown, picked up Forte and AJ Green then what do you know but Matt Ryan's there at my next pick. On board!
northwoods
Footballguy
FWIW, I got him at the 5/6 turn as the 6th QB off the board in my work 8 teamer last night...
RG3 & Stafford went in the 3rd and nobody jumped on Ryan so I pounced.
Vick & Big Ben went immediately after Ryan.
RG3 & Stafford went in the 3rd and nobody jumped on Ryan so I pounced.
Vick & Big Ben went immediately after Ryan.
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He went for $101 ($400 budget) in a 12 team, ppr, 2qb start, auction draft a couple nights ago.
Only Brees ($124), Brady ($112), and Rodgers ($121) went for more at QB.
Newton went for $99, and Stafford $90.
The next tier of guys were Eli/Romo ($79/$78), then Vick/Peyton ($66/$62).
Only Brees ($124), Brady ($112), and Rodgers ($121) went for more at QB.
Newton went for $99, and Stafford $90.
The next tier of guys were Eli/Romo ($79/$78), then Vick/Peyton ($66/$62).
beef
Footballguy
This is how you do it. Let others reach for Ryan. If no one reaches, then pounce on him and you will have yourself a great value QB.
Keith1
Footballguy
I draft on Labor Day. I have the 4th pick in my 12 team (6 point passing TDs) league. Rodgers will go in the top 3 picks, and I will take whoever is left for me between Rice and McCoy at pick # 4. Here's the thing though, I absolutely know that the guy who picks # 3 in my league is in love with Ryan, and there is no doubt in my mind whatsoever, that he will grab Ryan early 3rd round (at pick # 27---if he isn't gone already that is). Which means if I want Matty Ice, I have to take him at pick # 21 overall. I know that sounds absurd, but is it really ?? If I believe that Ryan will be a top 5 guy, and Rodgers, Brees, Brady, Stafford and Newton all go in the top 20, how crazy is it to take Ryan at # 21 ? I look at my most recent version of the Draft Dominator, and Ryan is now ranked at # 5 (ahead of Newton). If I decide to wait on my QB (and look at guys like Cutler, RG3, Flacco, etc... in a QBBC), then I just KNOW that each week I am going to pick the wrong guy--and leave the better choice on my bench. Bluntly, that is one of the reasons I have always preferred to grab an "elite" QB.
Not certain that I will take the plunge into the [Matty] ice, but I don't think it is as crazy of an idea (taking him late 2nd) as it would appear to be at first glance.
Not certain that I will take the plunge into the [Matty] ice, but I don't think it is as crazy of an idea (taking him late 2nd) as it would appear to be at first glance.
This thread is ridiculous. At best he's the 4th QB behind the proven three elite QBs. In a 12-team start 1 Qb there is no flipping way I'm taking anyone not named Brees, Brady, or Rodgers prior to the 5th round. You are losing massive value on your RB/WR's using a QB pick that early when you need to start so many more of the other positions.
Even with a fantastic season (top 5) in a QB/RB/RB/WR/WR/WR/TE league he is not worth earlier than a 5th, according to virtually every VBD baseline I have run.
Ryan in the 3rd?!? You guys are nuts.
Even with a fantastic season (top 5) in a QB/RB/RB/WR/WR/WR/TE league he is not worth earlier than a 5th, according to virtually every VBD baseline I have run.
Ryan in the 3rd?!? You guys are nuts.
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Keith1
Footballguy
Every year it seems that at least 4 of the 6 playoff teams in my league are teams with an "elite" QB, that was drafted in the first 3 rounds. Of course I don't know how it is going to turn out, but if you believe Matty Ice steps into the "elite" crowd this year (and there are many legitimate reasons to think that), then I believe it is not crazy to draft him once the first 5 QBs have come off the board. In my league, that will likely be any time after the first 20 picks.
DWI
Footballguy
I did some of my most important drafts this last weekend Aug 25 and 26. I drafted Ryan twice at the end of the 5th. I also drafted Vick twice once in the 6th and once in the 8th. The scoring in these leagues were 4pts per passing td all other tds are 6. I was very happy to have Ryan and though Vicks health does scare me he has been pretty good to me the last two years.
LionOfGosforth
Footballguy
Yeah that's how you do it when there are 4 more players available each round than most leagues. Try that in a 12 team league with 8 or 9 guys who jump on any QB with a pulse. It's all to do with knowing your league and their tendencies. I took him in the third round as QB7, Eli was already gone too after the consensus big 5 (for all those who blithely say "just take eli in the 5th or 6th!"), no regrets.
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RalphMouth
Footballguy
Well .. he went 3.2 in our draft last night. QBs flew off the board like they always do in our league. By the time it came to me at 3.12 I took Eli as I couldn't stomach Romo, Rivers or Cutler (Peyton & Vick were also taken before me)
Lott's Fingertip
Footballguy
Stinkin Ref
IBL Representative
see this is the call some people will have to make....do you take him 2.09 (or somewhere around there)....you maybe wouldn't have a problem at taking him at 3.04, but you know he won't be there......the guys at the top of the draft will have been able to secure a some type of RB/WR combo with their first two picks, so they won't have a problem taking Ryan as their 3rd pick....these are the scenerios that are continuing to bump up his ADP right now....so now his ADP climbs even higher cause guys may have to jump and take him in the second...so Keith has to ask himself "if I want him, is there a huge difference between 2.09 and 3.04?"...yeah it's only 6 picks, but some good players will go in that range including Ryan....so do you just bite the bullet and do it.....heck if you do pull the trigger at 2.09....the guys at the top of the draft, except the Rodgers owner, might follow suit and grab QB's themselves, allowing a player at another position that you might have liked to get at 2.09 to fall back to you at 3.04....but maybe not....sounds like there is no way he makes it out of the 3rd round right now....I got 1.08 in one of my two main leagues this weekend.......no way he makes it back to 3.08 IMO...so I am in the same boat....so while I love him this year......just not sure I can pull the trigger in the 2nd.....if he makes it to the third I would call it gravy.....trouble is, depending on how things go, I may already have a QB with one of my first two picks...
LionOfGosforth
Footballguy
Lazy and unhelpful analysis. It's league specific, there are no generalities that apply here. If I waited in my own league until the 6th, my starter would be Freeman or Dalton. I wish I could be in leagues where a top 6 or 7 QB is available that late. Even in the public Sportsline leagues I draft in occasionally, he's gone by the end of the 4th.
ponchsox
Footballguy
The problem with taking Ryan that early is when you face a team with a healthy Vick (taken 3-4 rounds later) and 2nd round RB (compared to your 5th round RB) you are going to get outscored.Unless Ryan hits 4,000+ yards and 40 TD passes, I don't see this as a winning strategy.
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LionOfGosforth
Footballguy
So that's most weeks you'll be better off with Ryan then.
ponchsox
Footballguy
Personally, I would rather take my chances with Vick later. I think Matt Ryan is a good QB, but he hasn't proved to me he is worth where he is being drafted.
Keith1
Footballguy
This.He went at pick # 26. If you feel you're getting an elite guy, 15-20 picks later than the consensus top 5 of Rogers, Brees, Brady, Stafford and Newton, then it does not seem so crazy to be drafting Ryan at #'s 20-25.
LionOfGosforth
Footballguy
That's fair enough, just would actually prefer to have a QB on my team that rarely misses time, even if he is being taken a couple of rounds earlier than would be preferable. If you have Vick, then sure, you perhaps picked up an extra RB or WR that looks pretty right now (always assuming they perform up to their ADP also, never a given), but when Vick misses 3 or 4 games which is most seasons it seems, you're scraping around with your backup or waiver pickup. Add to that, in my main local, Vick went early 4th anyway, only about 8 spots later than Ryan, league specific of course. To each their own, gonna be a ton of "I told you so" threads relating to Ryan (and maybe Vick too) as the season goes on.
ponchsox
Footballguy
Ryan threw 29 TD passes last year, his highest total in 4 years. You are banking on him throwing for 40+ this year to be considered "elite." He certainly has the weapons to do so, but I would rather see it one season before spending an early round pick that I could be using on a #2 RB or #1 WR.
LionOfGosforth
Footballguy
On the flip-side to that, if he does throw 35-40td's (however likely that may or may not be), he was reasonable value in the 3rd or 4th. If not, at least you've got a solid option most weeks with very nice upside. Those taking, for example, Stafford in the late first, well he HAS to throw 40+ to be worth it and has only one full season of health behind him. Who presents more risk here?
Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
The typical league only starts one QB. If that's a 10 - 12 team one QB league and 18 or 19 QBs are going by round six that's so non-typical as to be irrelevant.
Keith1
Footballguy
But here's the thing. In my 12 team league, between my 3rd round pick (pick # 28) and my 4th round pick (pick # 45), there is no doubt in my mind that gone will be: Vick, Eli and probably Romo and Rivers as well. So, if I am taking Vick (or one of those others), I am not getting the benefit of more than 1 round difference between them and Ryan. I have wavered considerably on this. I liked Matty back in May--and thought he was a good value 5th round pick. But things have changed. Although, all the reasons I liked him in the first place haven't changed. They have only seemingly been confirmed by the preseason.
ponchsox
Footballguy
I also think Stafford late in the first is crazy. Some people are high on QBs early, I'm just not one of them. You will be in good shape with Matty ice as your QB, but at what expense to your other positions?
jbalicki10
Footballguy
I still don't understand why people get hung up on one player. Matt Ryan is a number of players who have major upside. But remember, he has risks as well. That is why he isnt drafted in the first. I never go into a draft with a set strategy. When my turn comes, I look to see what players are available. I take what I am given. IE The best value. If I go RBRBRB or WRWRQB or whatever, those are the breaks.
I did draft Matt Ryan at 5.12 in a 14 team draft last week for what its worth. Just be sure to back him up with a FLACCO, or CARSON, or LUCK, or LOCKER. Heck draft 3 QBs just to ensure your season doesnt end soon.
I did draft Matt Ryan at 5.12 in a 14 team draft last week for what its worth. Just be sure to back him up with a FLACCO, or CARSON, or LUCK, or LOCKER. Heck draft 3 QBs just to ensure your season doesnt end soon.
Stinkin Ref
IBL Representative
and after you "wait" a season you will have accomplished ZERO.....
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