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Early Season Studs: Who Is Legit/Who Is A Mirage (1 Viewer)

Encyclopedia Brown

Footballguy
A few unexpected names have started out quite strong:

Jason Heyward

Pete Alonso

Tim Anderson

Domingo Santana

Wilson Contreras

(Feel free to add other names)

I grabbed Alonso late and obviously have been thrilled with his numbers. However, that 65% contact rate doesn't justify a .340 BA and I expect regression to come soon.

Tim Anderson has a .500 BABIP and 2% walk rate. That's an issue.

I am cautiously optimistic about Jason Heyward having a surprisingly good season. The 90% contact rate is not sustainable, but the walk rate is, and he just seems solid all around. 

 

cheese

Footballguy
Alonso power is legit. Even if his average falls to like .260, I don’t see why he can’t be like Jesus Aguilar in a worse park which is clearly a starting 1b in any league. 

Another breakout not mentioned is Kolten Wong. His slash line is not BABIP driven and he is smashing the ball. He spiked his walk rate early and he already has 7 extra base hits. BTW, he’s running again with 4 early steals. This guy doesn’t have upside to win your league, but I bet he’s finishing the season as a top 8ish 2b and probably went undrafted. 

 

MAC_32

Footballguy
Alonso power is legit. Even if his average falls to like .260, I don’t see why he can’t be like Jesus Aguilar in a worse park which is clearly a starting 1b in any league. 

Another breakout not mentioned is Kolten Wong. His slash line is not BABIP driven and he is smashing the ball. He spiked his walk rate early and he already has 7 extra base hits. BTW, he’s running again with 4 early steals. This guy doesn’t have upside to win your league, but I bet he’s finishing the season as a top 8ish 2b and probably went undrafted. 
I believed Wong's was real when his triple slash since Matheny getting #### canned entered my spectrum.  Don't know what it is off the top of my head, but if anyone wants to do the math the narrative carries some statistical weight.

 

RnR

Footballguy
Can confirm those two did not see eye-to-eye. Shildt seems intent on giving Wong the every day at-bats that Matheny often promised, but never delivered for Wong.

 

cosjobs

Footballguy
A few unexpected names have started out quite strong:

Jason Heyward

I am cautiously optimistic about Jason Heyward having a surprisingly good season. The 90% contact rate is not sustainable, but the walk rate is, and he just seems solid all around. 
That's what the Cubs used to think

 

General Malaise

Poop Lord
How about the young pup in San Diego, Fernando Tatis Jr?  5 HR/11RBI getting on at .353.  Looks like he might belong in this league.  God, I remember in college when his dad was the top Rangers' prospect.  

 

Eephus

Footballguy
How about the young pup in San Diego, Fernando Tatis Jr?  5 HR/11RBI getting on at .353.  Looks like he might belong in this league.  God, I remember in college when his dad was the top Rangers' prospect.  
I remember the great FernandoTatis17 Microsoft Paint hoax

 

Doctor Detroit

Please remove your headgear
Tim Anderson is an interesting case.  He was an elite base stealer in the minors, and he has 25 homer power.  Even in OBP leagues he is playable if he is stealing bases, but in average leagues he's almost a must start.  You didn't pay much for him so if he can go 22 homers and 30 steals even with that horrible plate discipline, he's valuable. 

Marcel Ozuna is off to a nice start, glad I grabbed quite a few shares there.  Freddy Galvis is carrying guys in deep leagues, Matt Boyd has been great, and Byron Buxton is startable again. 

On the flip side Jose Ramirez owners have to be :wall: and Sale owners have to be :X

Ramirez should be fine, in fact I'm sure he'll end up being a first round value.  Sale...I'm not sure what's going on there but in started last August. 

 

General Malaise

Poop Lord
Doctor Detroit said:
Tim Anderson is an interesting case.  He was an elite base stealer in the minors, and he has 25 homer power.  Even in OBP leagues he is playable if he is stealing bases, but in average leagues he's almost a must start.  You didn't pay much for him so if he can go 22 homers and 30 steals even with that horrible plate discipline, he's valuable. 

Marcel Ozuna is off to a nice start, glad I grabbed quite a few shares there.  Freddy Galvis is carrying guys in deep leagues, Matt Boyd has been great, and Byron Buxton is startable again. 

On the flip side Jose Ramirez owners have to be :wall: and Sale owners have to be :X

Ramirez should be fine, in fact I'm sure he'll end up being a first round value.  Sale...I'm not sure what's going on there but in started last August. 
Kicking myself for not keeping Anderson in Uber.  

 

Eephus

Footballguy
Doctor Detroit said:
Tim Anderson is an interesting case.  He was an elite base stealer in the minors, and he has 25 homer power.  Even in OBP leagues he is playable if he is stealing bases, but in average leagues he's almost a must start.  You didn't pay much for him so if he can go 22 homers and 30 steals even with that horrible plate discipline, he's valuable. 
Stud in bat flip leagues

 

fred_1_15301

Footballguy
After keeping Snell and Bauer, I filled out my rotation with high upside guys like Boyd, Caleb Smith, Musgrove, Stripling, Rodon.  So far it’s paying off and I believe the breakout for Caleb and Boyd is very real

 

Eephus

Footballguy
I took the leap on Max Fried during his first start.  I sat him at Colorado but he's been solid everywhere.

He seems to have figured it out and currently has the inside track on some of the Braves more heralded prospects.  One concern is Fried's innings baseline is really low so 120-140 IP. is a likely limit.  He's at 26 now.

 
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