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Ebola (2 Viewers)

Are we asking the wrong question about Ebola

http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-30011521

Excerpt (full quote below):

When it was at its peak… one infected person on average infected two others. Now on average one person infects one other," he says
But they do it - Exponentially!

The Ebola virus has killed about 5,000 people since March - but one scientist who is studying the statistics says this is not the best figure to consider if we really want to understand the current state of the outbreak and how to beat it.

A total of 4,960 people have died from Ebola this year according to statistics released by the World Health Organisation on 4 November. More than half of those cases - 2,766 - were in Liberia.

But this cumulative figure, which is widely reported, can only go one way - up. It gives no meaningful insight into how the outbreak has developed says Hans Rosling, professor of global health at the Karolinska Institute in Sweden.

"It's a bad habit of media. Media just want as many zeroes as possible. They'd prefer to say in Liberia we've had about 2,700 cases or 3,000 cases," he says.

Last month Rosling moved to the Liberian capital, Monrovia to work with the Ministry of Health where his task is to analyse the statistics to see how the virus is spreading and find the best way to tackle it.

He says that the number of new daily cases has dropped dramatically over the past few months and has plateaued in recent weeks.


"Ebola in Liberia started coming over the border into Lofa County, then it moved down during the summer and hit the capital, Monrovia, really badly in August and September. But now the numbers in the capital are down from 75 a day to 25 a day," says Rosling.

He argues that using a daily figure gives a more accurate representation of what's going on right now. "Take Lofa county for instance where they've had 365 cases cumulatively but the last week it was zero, zero, zero, zero every day."


Despite this drop, Rosling says one of the biggest challenges facing Liberia is that every single county has seen new cases of Ebola in recent weeks.

"This means we are fighting a low intensity epidemic. It flares up in one of the counties, it's controlled there and then it jumps up in another place. This will take time to get rid of."

One key development that appears to be affecting the number of new cases is a change in what is known as the reproduction number.

"When it was at its peak… one infected person on average infected two others. Now on average one person infects one other," he says.

Many people with Ebola now are identified and treated before they can transmit the disease to anyone else but not every case is caught early enough.

A grave in a cemetery for Ebola victims in Bong County
"Every now and again there is a remote funeral and five or six people will get infected there. So we see these clusters of outbreak and the task is to catch them as early as possible before neighbours get infected," says Rosling

"People understand this themselves. In a village where one family is infected they would make a ring around the house and say 'you do not go over this line… here's the water and the food that you need.'"

Rosling expects there to be fewer cases of Ebola in the future and that they will be widely distributed - but he thinks these small outbreaks will be tough to eradicate completely.

He says that reducing the daily infection rate from its peak to the current level was easier than the next task - bringing it down to zero.

One thing that has struck Rosling during his short time in Liberia is the global desire to help the region.

Sitting in meetings, he says, "I have a US general on one side, a Chinese general on the other side and on the opposite side of the table sits a health professional from Cuba. We all work very nicely together.

"We only know one thing - we are going to win. We are talking about months. We have to finish it before a year. So I told my grandkids I won't be home for Christmas."
 
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Associated Press

Ebola victim's family, hospital reach settlement

DALLAS (AP) — The hospital that treated the only Ebola patient to die in the United States will pay his relatives an undisclosed sum and create a charitable foundation in his name, the family's attorney said Wednesday.

The agreement heads off a lawsuit from relatives of Thomas Eric Duncan, who died Oct. 8 at Texas Health Presbyterian Hospital Dallas.

Duncan, who arrived in North Texas from Liberia on Sept. 20, was initially sent away from the hospital's emergency room with antibiotics, something Presbyterian administrators have acknowledged was a mistake. He returned to the hospital in an ambulance two days after his release and was quickly diagnosed with possible signs of Ebola, which has killed more than 5,000 people in West Africa.

Attorney Les Weisbrod declined to say at a news conference how much money the family would receive but said the settlement was a "very good deal" that would provide for Duncan's parents and his four children. Weisbrod also said Presbyterian hospital was not charging Duncan's family for his medical treatment. The foundation will assist efforts to fight Ebola in Liberia, he said.

Duncan's nephew, Josephus Weeks, has previously been critical of the care Duncan received, saying his death was partly due to his race, nationality and lack of insurance. But on Wednesday, he credited Presbyterian's officials for moving quickly to settle the case and acknowledge mistakes.

Weeks said he will be "the face of the foundation," which he hopes will lead to a new hospital or the dedication of a hospital wing in Liberia.


"The main focus is that Eric's name is on something and everybody knows that he didn't die in vain," Weeks told The Associated Press.

Texas Health Presbyterian Hospital Dallas confirmed the creation of the foundation in a statement and said it has "amicably addressed all matters" with Duncan's family.

The hospital has apologized for releasing Duncan the first time, and after initially denying he had told them he was from West Africa, they acknowledged key caregivers missed his travel history in their record system.

Duncan's sister, Mai Wureh, said that the hospital had satisfied her request for the remainder of her brother's medical records, including lab results of his treatment with the experimental drug brincidofovir.

Wureh also said she and Weeks met Wednesday morning with John Mulligan, the nurse who administered the drug.


"He gave me closure because he was the last one in that room. He was able to talk to him, comfort him. He held onto him, and that made me feel better. At least he didn't die alone," Wureh told AP.

Louise Troh, Duncan's fiancee, will not receive anything in the settlement, Weisbrod said.

Duncan's family would have faced a very high bar had they filed a lawsuit against Presbyterian hospital. Texas medical malpractice law places a $250,000 limit on noneconomic damages related to pain and suffering in almost all cases.

It also gives extra protection to emergency room doctors and nurses. Instead of just proving that Duncan's doctors were negligent in his care, Duncan's family would have to prove that any negligence was "willful and wanton" — essentially, that doctors knew they were causing harm.

A quick resolution to Duncan's case also benefits parent company Texas Health Resources, which faced weeks of negative publicity over its handling of the case and saw patient visits plummet immediately afterward.

Two Presbyterian nurses were infected during Duncan's care; both have recovered. More than 100 people who had contact with Duncan and the two nurses have been cleared after 21 days of monitoring for Ebola symptoms.
 
Anybody still in favor of a travel ban?
Israel, Australia

Israel Reportedly Bans Travelers From Ebola-Stricken NationsIsrael moved Thursday to close its borders to citizens from several West African nations struggling with Ebola outbreaks, as well as to travelers who recently visited those nations.

In classified instructions, Israel’s Foreign Ministry told its worldwide missions not to give visas to citizens of Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea, Haaretz reported Friday. The three nations are struggling with an Ebola epidemic that has killed nearly 5,000 people so far.

In addition, the instructions told officials to avoid giving visas to citizens of other countries who have traveled to the three Ebola-stricken nations.

According to Haaretz, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has previously characterized Ebola as one of three threats facing Israeli borders, the others being “illegal infiltrators and terror.”

Israel’s move comes after both Canada and Australia imposed similar restrictions on travelers from Ebola-stricken nations. The White House has resisted instituting a ban, and President Obama maintains that the only way to keep Americans safe from Ebola is to stop the epidemic in West Africa.
Australia bans travel from Ebola-hit countries; U.S. isolates troopsMONROVIA/FREETOWN (Reuters) - Australia became the first developed country on Tuesday to shut its borders to citizens of the countries worst-hit by the West African Ebola outbreak, a move those states said stigmatized healthy people and would make it harder to fight the disease.
 
Ebola doesn't seem so tough when people are treated in the United States.
Suck it, Ebola.
We will see how well the US is able to deal with this guy, who is critically ill.
Ebola: the one thing worse than a false positive is a false negative.http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/a-doctors-mistaken-ebola-test-we-were-celebrating--then-everything-fell-apart/2014/11/16/946a84da-6dd5-11e4-a2c2-478179fd0489_story.html

 
They should have known better being doctors dealing with Ebola:

FREETOWN, Sierra Leone When Martin Salias Ebola test came back negative, his friends and colleagues threw their arms around him. They shook his hand. They patted him on the back. They removed their protective gear and cried.

But when his symptoms remained nearly a week later, Salia took another test, on Nov. 10. This one came back positive, sending the Sierra Leonean doctor with ties to Maryland on a desperate, belated quest for treatment and forcing the colleagues who had embraced him into quarantine.

 
Why do you wait a week before taking a second test?
Pretty stupid. If his symptoms did not go away he should have retested immediately. You would think a doctor would know that the levels in the blood are very small when symptoms first set in and a false positive is very possible. To immediately remove his PPE and embrace people was irresponsible.

 
Why do you wait a week before taking a second test?
Pretty stupid. If his symptoms did not go away he should have retested immediately. You would think a doctor would know that the levels in the blood are very small when symptoms first set in and a false positive is very possible. To immediately remove his PPE and embrace people was irresponsible.
it was not irresponsible. That’s how people react. Maybe when you know someone with a life threatening illness you will learn to have some compassion for people.

 
Why do you wait a week before taking a second test?
Pretty stupid. If his symptoms did not go away he should have retested immediately. You would think a doctor would know that the levels in the blood are very small when symptoms first set in and a false positive is very possible. To immediately remove his PPE and embrace people was irresponsible.
it was not irresponsible. Thats how people react. Maybe when you know someone with a life threatening illness you will learn to have some compassion for people.
He was still ill and had known close exposure to Ebola. It was wreckess to expose other people to a contagious deadly disease when you know early results are not conclusive. He was at a high risk for having Ebola even with the negative test

Result

 
Ebola patients treated in US: 10

Patients Infected in Africa: 8

Patients infected in US: 2

Non health care workers infected in US: 0

Patients released: 8

Patients under treatment: 0

Deceased: 2

Current mortality rate of Americans treated in US: 0%.

Current mortality rate of all treated in US: 20%

Cured: Dr. Craig Spencer , Nina Pham, Amber Vinson , Ashoka Mukpo, Unidentified Aid Worker (AKA CIA WHO Doctor), Dr. Kent Brantley , Dr. Rick Sacra, Nancy Writebol

Under treatment: None

Deceased: Thomas Duncan, Dr. Martin Salia
 
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Ebola patients treated in US: 10

Patients Infected in Africa: 8

Patients infected in US: 2

Non health care workers infected in US: 0

Patients released: 8

Patients under treatment: 0

Deceased: 2

Current mortality rate of Americans treated in US: 0%.

Current mortality rate of all treated in US: 20%

Cured: Dr. Craig Spencer , Nina Pham, Amber Vinson , Ashoka Mukpo, Unidentified Aid Worker (AKA CIA WHO Doctor), Dr. Kent Brantley , Dr. Rick Sacra, Nancy Writebol

Under treatment: None

Deceased: Thomas Duncan, Dr. Martin Salia
That's twice the number of dead in only a few short weeks. It's an exponential increase.

 
Ebola patients treated in US: 10

Patients Infected in Africa: 8

Patients infected in US: 2

Non health care workers infected in US: 0

Patients released: 8

Patients under treatment: 0

Deceased: 2

Current mortality rate of Americans treated in US: 0%.

Current mortality rate of all treated in US: 20%

Cured: Dr. Craig Spencer , Nina Pham, Amber Vinson , Ashoka Mukpo, Unidentified Aid Worker (AKA CIA WHO Doctor), Dr. Kent Brantley , Dr. Rick Sacra, Nancy Writebol

Under treatment: None

Deceased: Thomas Duncan, Dr. Martin Salia
That's twice the number of dead in only a few short weeks. It's an exponential increase.
Eggs on our face now.

 
Thanks for keeping the Ebola scoreboard current.
Son, we live in a world that has ebola, and those ebola have to be guarded by men with scoreboards. Who's gonna do it? You? You, jon_mx? I have a greater responsibility than you could possibly fathom. You weep for Duncan, and you curse West Africa. You have that luxury. You have the luxury of not knowing what I know. That Duncan's death, while tragic, probably saved lives. And my posting, while grotesque and incomprehensible to you, saves lives. You don't want the truth because deep down in places you don't talk about at parties, you want me on that ebola scorecard, you need me on that ebola scorecard. We use words like travel ban, transfusion, ZMapp. We use these words as the backbone of a life spent posting something. You use them as a punchline. I have neither the time nor the inclination to explain myself to a man who rises and sleeps under the blanket of the very lack of disease that I provide, and then questions the manner in which I provide it. I would rather you just said thank you, and went on your way, Otherwise, I suggest you pick a message board, and start to post. Either way, I don't give a damn what you think you are entitled to.

err.... I mean your welcome.

 
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Ebola patients treated in US: 10

Patients Infected in Africa: 8

Patients infected in US: 2

Non health care workers infected in US: 0

Patients released: 8

Patients under treatment: 0

Deceased: 2

Current mortality rate of Americans treated in US: 0%.

Current mortality rate of all treated in US: 20%

Cured: Dr. Craig Spencer , Nina Pham, Amber Vinson , Ashoka Mukpo, Unidentified Aid Worker (AKA CIA WHO Doctor), Dr. Kent Brantley , Dr. Rick Sacra, Nancy Writebol

Under treatment: None

Deceased: Thomas Duncan, Dr. Martin Salia
That's twice the number of dead in only a few short weeks. It's an exponential increase.
good point!!

 
It's kind of sad to think like this, but the less cases there are outside of Africa, the less people care about finding a cure.

 
It cost more than $1 million to treat two patients sent to the University of Nebraska’s Medical Center, the hospital’s chancellor said Tuesday. And it’s still not clear who will pay the bill and how.
Not a very good use of funds imo

 
It's kind of sad to think like this, but the more days there are until an upcoming election, the less people care about finding a cure.

 
culdeus said:
So we are forcing people to jerk off now to tell if they has the ebolas?
Yes, "forcing".
I'm not sure how this went down. How exactly did they get this semen sample?
I know a cat named Way Out Willie

Got a cool little chick named Rocking Millie

He can walk and stroll and Susie Q

And do that crazy hand jive, too

Mama, mama, look at Uncle Joe

Doing the hand jive with sister Flo

Grandma gave baby sister a dime

Said, "Do that hand jive one more time."

Hand jive, hand jive, hand jive

Do that crazy hand jive

Doctor and a lawyer and an Indian chief

They all dig that crazy beat

Way-Out Willie gave them all a treat

When he did that hand jive with his feet

Hand jive, hand jive, hand jive

Do that crazy hand jive

Willie and Millie got married last fall

They had a little Willie junior and that ain't all

Well, the kids got crazy and it's plain to see

Doing the hand jive on T.V

Hand jive, hand jive, hand jive

Do that crazy hand jive

 
FYI...

Madagascar has been hit with an outbreak of plague, with 119 confirmed cases and 40 deaths, the World Health Organization said.

The bacterial disease, transmitted by rat fleas, originated in the Soamahatamana village in August and has spread to 16 districts, the organization said in a statement today. Antananarivo, the capital of the island nation off the eastern coast of Africa, has two recorded cases, including one death.

“There is now a risk of a rapid spread of the disease due to the city’s high population density and the weakness of the health-care system,” the WHO said. A national task force, with support from the WHO and the Red Cross, is managing the outbreak.


Bacteria carried by fleas on wild rats can cause different types of plagues. Bubonic plague, an infection of the lymph glands, is the most common form. If the bacteria reach the lungs, the patient develops pneumonic plague, which is “one of the most deadly infectious diseases,” according to the WHO. In Madagascar, 2 percent of the reported cases are pneumonic, the agency said.
 
FYI...

Madagascar has been hit with an outbreak of plague, with 119 confirmed cases and 40 deaths, the World Health Organization said.

The bacterial disease, transmitted by rat fleas, originated in the Soamahatamana village in August and has spread to 16 districts, the organization said in a statement today. Antananarivo, the capital of the island nation off the eastern coast of Africa, has two recorded cases, including one death.

“There is now a risk of a rapid spread of the disease due to the city’s high population density and the weakness of the health-care system,” the WHO said. A national task force, with support from the WHO and the Red Cross, is managing the outbreak.


Bacteria carried by fleas on wild rats can cause different types of plagues. Bubonic plague, an infection of the lymph glands, is the most common form. If the bacteria reach the lungs, the patient develops pneumonic plague, which is “one of the most deadly infectious diseases,” according to the WHO. In Madagascar, 2 percent of the reported cases are pneumonic, the agency said.
I thought the plague was treated with antibiotics now.

 
FYI...

Madagascar has been hit with an outbreak of plague, with 119 confirmed cases and 40 deaths, the World Health Organization said.

The bacterial disease, transmitted by rat fleas, originated in the Soamahatamana village in August and has spread to 16 districts, the organization said in a statement today. Antananarivo, the capital of the island nation off the eastern coast of Africa, has two recorded cases, including one death.

“There is now a risk of a rapid spread of the disease due to the city’s high population density and the weakness of the health-care system,” the WHO said. A national task force, with support from the WHO and the Red Cross, is managing the outbreak.


Bacteria carried by fleas on wild rats can cause different types of plagues. Bubonic plague, an infection of the lymph glands, is the most common form. If the bacteria reach the lungs, the patient develops pneumonic plague, which is “one of the most deadly infectious diseases,” according to the WHO. In Madagascar, 2 percent of the reported cases are pneumonic, the agency said.
I thought the plague was treated with antibiotics now.
IT'S THE PLAGUE!!!

 
FYI...

Madagascar has been hit with an outbreak of plague, with 119 confirmed cases and 40 deaths, the World Health Organization said.

The bacterial disease, transmitted by rat fleas, originated in the Soamahatamana village in August and has spread to 16 districts, the organization said in a statement today. Antananarivo, the capital of the island nation off the eastern coast of Africa, has two recorded cases, including one death.

“There is now a risk of a rapid spread of the disease due to the city’s high population density and the weakness of the health-care system,” the WHO said. A national task force, with support from the WHO and the Red Cross, is managing the outbreak.


Bacteria carried by fleas on wild rats can cause different types of plagues. Bubonic plague, an infection of the lymph glands, is the most common form. If the bacteria reach the lungs, the patient develops pneumonic plague, which is “one of the most deadly infectious diseases,” according to the WHO. In Madagascar, 2 percent of the reported cases are pneumonic, the agency said.
Its over.

If you have ever played Outbreak, you know Madagascar is one of the hardest countries to infect. Someone clearly used their bonus points on spreading via rodents.

Next, look to see if it spreads to any cold countries. We might all have to move to Iceland or Greenland - before they close their ports and airports.

 
FYI...

Madagascar has been hit with an outbreak of plague, with 119 confirmed cases and 40 deaths, the World Health Organization said.

The bacterial disease, transmitted by rat fleas, originated in the Soamahatamana village in August and has spread to 16 districts, the organization said in a statement today. Antananarivo, the capital of the island nation off the eastern coast of Africa, has two recorded cases, including one death.

“There is now a risk of a rapid spread of the disease due to the city’s high population density and the weakness of the health-care system,” the WHO said. A national task force, with support from the WHO and the Red Cross, is managing the outbreak.


Bacteria carried by fleas on wild rats can cause different types of plagues. Bubonic plague, an infection of the lymph glands, is the most common form. If the bacteria reach the lungs, the patient develops pneumonic plague, which is “one of the most deadly infectious diseases,” according to the WHO. In Madagascar, 2 percent of the reported cases are pneumonic, the agency said.
I thought the plague was treated with antibiotics now.
IT'S THE PLAGUE!!!
I may have said this before, but I was supposed to go to the Congo once and my company gave me a sheet that gave all kinds of advice for the country you were visiting. On the disease list, it listed the Plague as one of the diseases to "watch out for." :shock:

 
FYI...

Madagascar has been hit with an outbreak of plague, with 119 confirmed cases and 40 deaths, the World Health Organization said.

The bacterial disease, transmitted by rat fleas, originated in the Soamahatamana village in August and has spread to 16 districts, the organization said in a statement today. Antananarivo, the capital of the island nation off the eastern coast of Africa, has two recorded cases, including one death.

“There is now a risk of a rapid spread of the disease due to the city’s high population density and the weakness of the health-care system,” the WHO said. A national task force, with support from the WHO and the Red Cross, is managing the outbreak.


Bacteria carried by fleas on wild rats can cause different types of plagues. Bubonic plague, an infection of the lymph glands, is the most common form. If the bacteria reach the lungs, the patient develops pneumonic plague, which is “one of the most deadly infectious diseases,” according to the WHO. In Madagascar, 2 percent of the reported cases are pneumonic, the agency said.
I thought the plague was treated with antibiotics now.
IT'S THE PLAGUE!!!
I may have said this before, but I was supposed to go to the Congo once and my company gave me a sheet that gave all kinds of advice for the country you were visiting. On the disease list, it listed the Plague as one of the diseases to "watch out for." :shock:
Now imagine it was the Black Plague

 

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