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Edge as all time rusher? (1 Viewer)

jeter23

Footballguy
http://www.eastvalleytribune.com/story/94132

Edge thinking about Emmitt’s record despite last year

Mike Tulumello, Tribune

FLAGSTAFF - Nobody can say Edgerrin James isn’t goal oriented. Heading into his second season with the Cardinals, “Edge” says he thinks he has a shot at becoming the NFL’s all-time leading rusher.

“I may take a shot at Emmitt (Smith),” he says. “I know it’s not impossible.”

He wants to keep playing for several more years, and — this might be his most exotic goal—he’d like to finish his career as backup to his cousin, Javarris “Baby J” James, who’s now a running back at the University of Miami.

“That would be the coolest backup job I could possibly have,” he says.

Pretty heady stuff for a guy who was widely perceived as coming off a subpar season in which he ran for a career-low 3.4 yards per carry (his career average is 4.1).

James doesn’t necessarily see the situation this way.

Though he doesn’t say so himself, James was running behind a struggling offensive line — James prefers to say the line was in flux and that the team had two offensive coordinators — and he still managed 1,159 yards.

James had talked before last season that his eye was on a Hall of Fame career and that he didn’t want a weak line to mess with his goal.

Looking back, he says 2006 didn’t set him back.

“It made me dig deeper. Last year, there were so many opportunities to lay down and say, ‘You know what? This is not what I came here for,’ act up and not go out and play hard.

“But I continued to play … I took a pounding early on, and I kept going and going.”

After the team’s coaches settled on their best-available line, James ran for 100 yards in three of the team’s five final games, all Cardinal wins.

“For the situation I was in, for what I was working with, I did pretty good to hold up … It’s hard to put it on the offensive line when you have so much change.

“Once we started getting things together, we started running better and playing better as a team.

“Once we got settled in, we started having some pretty good results.”

New coach Ken Whisenhunt agrees.

His assessment of James, after watching replays of every game, “I thought he had very good vision and finished plays well. I thought he had a lot of gas left in the tank.”

Guard Reggie Wells, probably the team’s most consistent returning lineman, acknowledged, “We didn’t have the numbers we wanted the first half of the year. But we adjusted.”

Whisenhunt has talked of a “run-first” approach this season, at least in terms of building a physical style and temperament.

So then the question becomes: Do the Cardinals have the personnel on the line to accomplish this?

Evidently, coach Dennis Green didn’t think so last season. He emphasized the passing game.

“I feel that in free agency and in the draft we addressed some of those needs,” Whisenhunt says.

“That’s the purpose of training camp. We’re going to see which of these five is the best five.”

James is aware that opponents who key on the run can give him a tough time.

But, he says, “When you say ‘run first’, it’s more of a mentality for the team.

“You cannot leave Anquan Boldin or (Larry) Fitzgerald one on one. They can’t just key on the running game, ’cause if they do Fitzgerald and Boldin and (Bryant) Johnson will make the other team pay.’ “You won’t get teams cheating. They know Coach Whisenhunt will go down the field. “Teams will play us fairly. They won’t be loading eight men with the ninth man hanging, anticipating the run.”

As for that goal of being No. 1 all time, James — No. 18 with 10,385 yards — needs nearly 8,000 yards to catch Smith. He feels he’s in his prime; he turns 29 on Wednesday. With players now staying in shape and with the advance of medical technology in case of injuries, “You can play football at a high level for a long time. “I’m still young. I want to play as long as I’m interested and having fun.”

Perhaps more realistically, if he can average 1,200 yards for the remaining three years of his contract with the Cards, he will have piled up nearly 14,000 yards, likely good enough for No. 5 all time. With help from his line, he’s got a shot.

 
Just working through the numbers . . .

18355 - 10385 = 7970

He'll be 29 in two days. If he played 6 more years, he'd have to average 1329 yards over that time (assuming he plays through age 34).

I personally don't see it, but it's nice to have a dream.

 
He would've had a better chance had he taken a pay cut and stayed at Indy. Oh, and he'd have a ring too.

 
I keep a chart of all the young RBs who have been having good seasons. Edge got started at the right age (21) but he lost too many of his younger productive years to injury. Portis was on pace to beat Emmitt until he got injured last year. 4 of the current top 5 all started putting up significant stats at age 21. In fact I think 6 of the top 10 got started at 21.

Edge needs to rush for 2,181 yards this season or 3,578 over the next two to be tied with Emmitt through the same age. Then he'd only have to put up another 5800 yards from age 30 on. Seems unlikely.

LT got started a year late. He's also 2,000 yards off the pace, but if he can put up 3,390 at ages 28 and 29, he's on pace which is even more impressive considering the year late thing.

Portis went from +251 yards to -730 yards last year. If he puts up 4,781 for ages 26, 27 and 28 he's back on target. That's possible but I wouldn't bet on it.

The only other young guy of note is Steven Jackson. He'll be 24 this year and is -2452. He'd have to average 1,900 the next three years to get on the pace. Very unlikely but who knows?

Shame about Barry Sanders. -3086 and retired at age 30.

Right now, I don't think the guy who breaks the record is currently in the NFL.

 
VaCatFan said:
He would've had a better chance had he taken a pay cut and stayed at Indy. Oh, and he'd have a ring too.
I'm not so sure he would have a ring. I think by the time of the playoffs, the Addai-Rhodes duo were really producing, and I suspect I am not alone in thinking that double act was more productive in the playoffs than Edge would have been on his own.I hate to see RBBC for fantasy reasons, but this one really worked in real life.In the Super Bowl alone, Rhodes carried 21 times for 113 yards and Addai carried 19 times for 77 yards. Addai had 10 receptions for 66 yards and Rhodes had 1 for 8.Do you think Edge could have run 40 times for 190 yards and caught 11 balls for 74 yards? Any RB would have a tough time carrying that load on his own.
 
LT got started a year late. He's also 2,000 yards off the pace, but if he can put up 3,390 at ages 28 and 29, he's on pace which is even more impressive considering the year late thing.
i realize you're doing this by age and for a very good reasonbut if you do it by seasons in the league, LT is ahead of Emmitt at the 6 year mark by 220 yards and even 'average' seasons by LT will further widen that gap as Emmitt's next 2 years were 1204 and 1074 yards rushing

if you look at YFS, LT is even farther ahead of Emmitt (although i realize that Rice and not Emmitt has the YFS record)

here is a chart i posted earlier about YFS versus years in league

http://img516.imageshack.us/img516/521/yfs3mk5.png

and for completeness, there is the rush/receive TD chart too

http://img511.imageshack.us/img511/4012/td3gw8.png

(you may need to zoom in to see legends and everything)

 
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Every time I see Emmit's name associated with the rushing title it makes me sick. If Sweetness or Barry had played as long as he did he wouldn't have come anywhere near their numbers. Though I guess something has to be said for longevity. BTW, Edge can talk all the trash he wants about the title but he gave up any hope when he left Indy.

 
I am just happy to hear that Edge seems to be in the game mentally. Having him as (unfortunately) my #1 in a dynasty, I need him to at least be a good #2 type producer for a couple years.

 
Just working through the numbers . . .18355 - 10385 = 7970He'll be 29 in two days. If he played 6 more years, he'd have to average 1329 yards over that time (assuming he plays through age 34).I personally don't see it, but it's nice to have a dream.
He's banking on NFL expansion to yield a couple of bad defensive team, you'll never know. It is still possible.
 
:thumbdown: A year ago he was half way to the record. Now after a huge 1100 yard rushing season, he's got the record in his sights.
 
LT got started a year late. He's also 2,000 yards off the pace
the more i look at this, the more i think you did this wrongby my calculation, he's less than 1000 yards off the pace
I believe he's comparing actual yardage through a certain age, not the pace that he's currently producing at.
that's how i understood it too, and i still think he's less than 1000 yards backedit:on his 28th birthday (in June) LT had 9176 rushing yardson his 28th birthday (in May) Emmitt had 10160 rushing yardsfor a difference of 984
 
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I am calculating how much LT needs to do this year to keep up with what Emmitt did at that same age. Basically he's 1000 yards behind plus what he needs to do this year to stop being behind.

 
I respect the fact that he ran so hard last year in very difficult circumstances (self-imposed but still). What Denny Green did to him in that Chicago game was rediculous.

 
The reality is that record is harder to reach than just averaging out production over estimated years left in the league. RB's take serious punishment and each year they play and get older wears them down more and more. Their stats tend to taper off after about 5 years of full time workload. I think the RB position must be the shortest starting tenure position at the NFL level. A long career (lets say 10 years of starting) for an NFL RB is rare. I think some people were even excited about the per season numbers Terrell Davis was putting up a few years back...remember him??? One serious injury and he drops off the map.

 
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I was just looking at his stats and he doesn't turn 30 until next August and is only 2662 yards behind Curtis Martin for 4th place with still 2 games to go. I think that's possible for him to catch Martin in the next two years, but he needs 5287 yards to pass Payton and would need 4 more years (and a better OL).

Emmitt's record is going to be near impossible to break - the closest guys I see with the age/talent to do it are Peterson and Steven Jackson, but I don't see that type of longevity from them.

 
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Emmitt's record is going to be near impossible to break - the closest guys I see with the age/talent to do it are Peterson and Steven Jackson, but I don't see that type of longevity from them.
assuming LT gets another 187 rushing yards in the final 2 games (his season average), he will end the season with 10,674 yardsEmmitt has 18,355 which is 7,681 more

LT has said he wants to play 5 more years

7681/5 = 1536 yards per year

in his first 7 years he has averaged 1525 yards per year

if you leave off the first year, he has averaged 1573 yards per year for the last 6 years

maybe not probable but not certainly not impossible for him to maintain that pace for 5 more years

also interesting is to look at rush/receive touchdowns and YFS (both owned by Jerry Rice)

projecting LT to finish with 2 more TDs gives him 129 total which leaves him 78 behind Rice

78 / 5 = 15.6 TDs / year for the next 5 years

he has averaged 18.4 TDs / year his first 7 years

very possible

projecting LT to finish with 253 more YFS gives him 14,101 total which leaves him 9,439 behind Rice

9438 / 5 = 1888 YFS / year for the next 5 years

he has averaged 2001 YFS his first 7 years

maybe pushing it, but still very possible

 
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I was just looking at his stats and he doesn't turn 30 until next August and is only 2662 yards behind Curtis Martin for 4th place with still 2 games to go. I think that's possible for him to catch Martin in the next two years, but he needs 5287 yards to pass Payton and would need 4 more years (and a better OL).

Emmitt's record is going to be near impossible to break - the closest guys I see with the age/talent to do it are Peterson and Steven Jackson, but I don't see that type of longevity from them.
do not count out LT. I think he has more yards at this point in his carrerr than Smith did.
 
cstu said:
I was just looking at his stats and he doesn't turn 30 until next August and is only 2662 yards behind Curtis Martin for 4th place with still 2 games to go. I think that's possible for him to catch Martin in the next two years, but he needs 5287 yards to pass Payton and would need 4 more years (and a better OL). Emmitt's record is going to be near impossible to break - the closest guys I see with the age/talent to do it are Peterson and Steven Jackson, but I don't see that type of longevity from them.
If Edge keeps up his current pace for this season, he'll have lost another 120ish yards in ground to Emmitt. Emmitt rushed for 1300 at this age and 1400 the next year. At this pace, he'll be about 900ish yards behind where Emmitt was at this time through age 29. Seems unlikely to break the record.Steven Jackson is DONE in my mind. Very unlikely a RB loses a lot of time to injury during his prime and eclipses the record. He lost 500 yards to Emmitt this year and will be 1400 off the pace going into next year. Lot of ground to make up.Peterson has the same problem LT does, which is starting at age 22 and not 21. It may not seem like much now, but when you're hoping for a RB to miss virtually no time to injury through age 30, and then still be productive enough to put up several hundred yards at age 36... makes it hard. Then this record will be hard for anyone to break honestly. And then you have to consider the crackdown on performance enhancers that are making the rounds through sports right now.LT helped himself a lot this year. If he can put up Barry Sanders type numbers at age 29 and 30 (Barry rushed for 3500 between those two years), he'll be right on pace to break the record. He's capable of this, so out of all RBs playing right now, I'd put LT at the most likely statistically to break the record.
 
fsufan said:
cstu said:
I was just looking at his stats and he doesn't turn 30 until next August and is only 2662 yards behind Curtis Martin for 4th place with still 2 games to go. I think that's possible for him to catch Martin in the next two years, but he needs 5287 yards to pass Payton and would need 4 more years (and a better OL).

Emmitt's record is going to be near impossible to break - the closest guys I see with the age/talent to do it are Peterson and Steven Jackson, but I don't see that type of longevity from them.
do not count out LT. I think he has more yards at this point in his carrerr than Smith did.
Emmitt has said he is worried about LT breaking the record.He is on pace to do it in 6 more years.

 
fsufan said:
cstu said:
I was just looking at his stats and he doesn't turn 30 until next August and is only 2662 yards behind Curtis Martin for 4th place with still 2 games to go. I think that's possible for him to catch Martin in the next two years, but he needs 5287 yards to pass Payton and would need 4 more years (and a better OL).

Emmitt's record is going to be near impossible to break - the closest guys I see with the age/talent to do it are Peterson and Steven Jackson, but I don't see that type of longevity from them.
do not count out LT. I think he has more yards at this point in his carrerr than Smith did.
Emmitt has said he is worried about LT breaking the record.He is on pace to do it in 6 more years.
He could very well do it if he plays 6 more years (and assuming a normal decline at 32+):Age 29-32 - 1500X4=6000

Age 33-34 - 1000X2=2000

 

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