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Electric Cars (Tesla and Others) (4 Viewers)

matttyl said:
BobbyLayne said:
Auto manufacturers have plans to launch over 200 new EV models between now and 2027.
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That's amazing.  How many are there today?  30?
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AFAIK 17 available in the USA - and that's counting 8 variants of Tesla (most think of them as having 3 Models.)

Make - Model - Price - Range -Battery

  • BMW   i3   $44,450   114   33Kwh
  • CHEVROLET   Bolt   $36,620   238   60Kwh
  • FIAT   500e   $32,995   84   24Kwh
  • HONDA   Clarity Electric   $37,510   89   25.5Kwh
  • JAGUAR   I-PACE   $76,500   234   90Kwh
  • KIA   Soul EVE   $33,950   111   30Kwh
  • NISSAN   Leaf (2nd Gen)   $29,990   151   40Kwh
  • SMARTE D   $23,800   100   17.6Kwh
  • TESLA   Model 3 Long Range   $43,000   325   74Kwh
  • TESLA   Model 3 Mid Range   $40,000   264   62Kwh
  • TESLA   Model 3 Standard   $35,000   220   55Kwh
  • TESLA   Model S Long Range   $83,000   335   100Kwh
  • TESLA   Model S Performance   $99,000   315   100Kwh
  • TESLA   Model S Standard   $79,000   270   75Kwh
  • TESLA   Model X Long Range   $88,000   295   100Kwh
  • TESLA   Model X Performance   $104,000   289   100Kwh
  • VOLKSWAGEN   e-Golf   $30,495   119   35.8Kwh
 
BobbyLayne said:
AFAIK 17 available in the USA - and that's counting 8 variants of Tesla (most think of them as having 3 Models.)

Make - Model - Price - Range -Battery

  • BMW   i3   $44,450   114   33Kwh
  • CHEVROLET   Bolt   $36,620   238   60Kwh
  • FIAT   500e   $32,995   84   24Kwh
  • HONDA   Clarity Electric   $37,510   89   25.5Kwh
  • JAGUAR   I-PACE   $76,500   234   90Kwh
  • KIA   Soul EVE   $33,950   111   30Kwh
  • NISSAN   Leaf (2nd Gen)   $29,990   151   40Kwh
  • SMARTE D   $23,800   100   17.6Kwh
  • TESLA   Model 3 Long Range   $43,000   325   74Kwh
  • TESLA   Model 3 Mid Range   $40,000   264   62Kwh
  • TESLA   Model 3 Standard   $35,000   220   55Kwh
  • TESLA   Model S Long Range   $83,000   335   100Kwh
  • TESLA   Model S Performance   $99,000   315   100Kwh
  • TESLA   Model S Standard   $79,000   270   75Kwh
  • TESLA   Model X Long Range   $88,000   295   100Kwh
  • TESLA   Model X Performance   $104,000   289   100Kwh
  • VOLKSWAGEN   e-Golf   $30,495   119   35.8Kwh
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I'm not sure that is a complete list.  I have two friends that each drive fully electric Fiats.   

 
I'm not sure how the article I was reading came up with 200 planned models. Here is a list of 54 vehicles that are in the planning stages. No doubt it's worldwide, and many EVs currently being sold in the EU are not available in the U.S. For instance, the Renault Zoe is the best selling BEV made in the EU.

It took more than five years to sell the first million battery electric vehicles (2012-18); the second million came in Q2 2018, and worldwide sales recently topped four million. I believe Tesla was at around 550K vehicles delivered through the end of February. It's a hockey stick exponential trend, but still a small segment of total car sales. 

The top selling BEV countries in 2018 were China (1.053M), USA (361K), and Norway (73K.) As a percentage of total auto sales, only Norway (49.1%) and Iceland (19.1%) were in double digits, followed by the Sweden (8.0%), Netherlands (6.7%), Finland (4.7%), and China (4.4%.) All other countries were below 4%, with the U.S. ranked 15th at 2.1%.

 
BobbyLayne said:
Yeah I wondered if it might be missing a few. Your friends drive something other than a 500?
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I know their car has a decal/sticker that says "Abarth" on the side--but that could just be some variation of the 500.  I also have a friend that drives a Ford Fusion fully electric--but I believe that Ford may have discontinued that--so that list might be complete afterall. 

 
jvdesigns2002 said:
I know their car has a decal/sticker that says "Abarth" on the side--but that could just be some variation of the 500.  I also have a friend that drives a Ford Fusion fully electric--but I believe that Ford may have discontinued that--so that list might be complete afterall. 
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I think Fusion Energi is only a plug-in hybrid? I know their old gasoline-electric hybrid was subject to a class action lawsuit because the mileage was like 20% less than advertised.

 
BobbyLayne said:
I'm not sure how the article I was reading came up with 200 planned models. Here is a list of 54 vehicles that are in the planning stages. No doubt it's worldwide, and many EVs currently being sold in the EU are not available in the U.S. For instance, the Renault Zoe is the best selling BEV made in the EU.

It took more than five years to sell the first million battery electric vehicles (2012-18); the second million came in Q2 2018, and worldwide sales recently topped four million. I believe Tesla was at around 550K vehicles delivered through the end of February. It's a hockey stick exponential trend, but still a small segment of total car sales. 

The top selling BEV countries in 2018 were China (1.053M), USA (361K), and Norway (73K.) As a percentage of total auto sales, only Norway (49.1%) and Iceland (19.1%) were in double digits, followed by the Sweden (8.0%), Netherlands (6.7%), Finland (4.7%), and China (4.4%.) All other countries were below 4%, with the U.S. ranked 15th at 2.1%.
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That's worldwide?  Amazing stat. 

 
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Looking at the list above, the cost coupled with range puts Tesla well above any other competitor.

ETA: I missed the Bolt on my first pass. That’s pretty impressive.

 
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BobbyLayne said:
Yes, though I see there's a typo

1M s/b 2012-2017

1-2M s/b first six months 2018

2-4M in the last 8 months reported (Jul 2018 - Feb 2019.)
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Have you seen projections for where these numbers are heading?  If doubling every 6-9 months at this point, we're looking at 8m by end of this year, and maybe 20m by end of 2020?!  Is the production side there to handle that?

 
matttyl said:
BobbyLayne said:
Yes, though I see there's a typo

1M s/b 2012-2017

1-2M s/b first six months 2018

2-4M in the last 8 months reported (Jul 2018 - Feb 2019.)
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Have you seen projections for where these numbers are heading?  If doubling every 6-9 months at this point, we're looking at 8m by end of this year, and maybe 20m by end of 2020?!  Is the production side there to handle that?
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I haven't seen any short term forecasts. I know Morgan Stanley did a lengthy report last year which predicted one billion plug in electric vehicles by 2050, and 90% of those are expected to be BEV. There's like nine countries who have pledged to not allow new internal combustion engine cars to register any longer by specific timelines (2030 - France, India, Ireland, Netherlands, Norway 2040 - Germany, Taiwan, U.K. TBD - China) but at this point they are just non-binding resolutions.

The biggest driver - and here's where reality HAS to meet the vision - is how much cheaper it is becoming to make lithium ion batteries. Tesla used to spend $1,000 per Kwh on batteries; currently they are at $190 per Kwh, and are expected to be below $100 by the time the Model Y production ramps up. The Gigafactories are a huge competitive advantage for Tesla. Anyway, the point is, people are not gonna buy BEVs because they wanna be green. It has to be an economic decision.

 
BobbyLayne said:
The biggest driver - and here's where reality HAS to meet the vision - is how much cheaper it is becoming to make lithium ion batteries. Tesla used to spend $1,000 per Kwh on batteries; currently they are at $190 per Kwh, and are expected to be below $100 by the time the Model Y production ramps up. The Gigafactories are a huge competitive advantage for Tesla. Anyway, the point is, people are not gonna buy BEVs because they wanna be green. It has to be an economic decision.
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Exactly.  That's the only way I can justify it.  If they are greener, so be it.  I live in a state where most electricity comes from coal, so I'm not even going to pretend that this is a "green" (environmental) decision.  It will be a "green" (monetary) one.  I loved the 3 when it came out, but I just couldn't justify a "sports car" at this point in my life (I know it's a sports sedan, but it would be by far the sportiest car I've ever owned).  This new Y model fits my lifestyle much better.

These new factories are great, and hopefully will "bring the savings to the consumer".  But when's the right time to jump in?  I think of the iphone, and if you were an early adopter you might have been upset when the iphone 3g came out and your technology was now outdated.  Then it happened again when 4g (LTE) became the standard.  What if the same thing happens with batteries and all of a sudden they find a way to give you 500 miles of range rather than 300, and the ability to charge it in the time it takes to pee at a rest stop, with 99% efficiency?

 
BobbyLayne said:
Tesla used to spend $1,000 per Kwh on batteries; currently they are at $190 per Kwh, and are expected to be below $100 by the time the Model Y production ramps up.
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So if I'm understanding the math here correctly, using the Tesla 3 midrange (62kwh) as the example...it used to cost them $62k for batteries for that model, currently costs them $11,780, and will soon cost them around $6k?

So, say you do need to replace the entire battery system in the car after 100k miles or 10 years or something, you can expect to pay ~half as much to do that as it costs when the car was built?  Can you say that about any gas engine vehicle? 

 
matttyl said:
So if I'm understanding the math here correctly, using the Tesla 3 midrange (62kwh) as the example...it used to cost them $62k for batteries for that model, currently costs them $11,780, and will soon cost them around $6k?

So, say you do need to replace the entire battery system in the car after 100k miles or 10 years or something, you can expect to pay ~half as much to do that as it costs when the car was built?  Can you say that about any gas engine vehicle? 
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The other deep dark secret of Musk's plan to rule the world is that he wants to take your batteries and put them in power banks and power walls.  As it turns out a 10 year battery still has 60% of it's useful capacity which if you aren't planning on moving it anywhere is perfect for a solar energy storage situation.

Long term we will be charging our ancient cells all day with solar and dumping that energy into our cars at night.  And any extra energy we sell or use.  

 
matttyl said:
Exactly.  That's the only way I can justify it.  If they are greener, so be it.  I live in a state where most electricity comes from coal, so I'm not even going to pretend that this is a "green" (environmental) decision.  It will be a "green" (monetary) one.  I loved the 3 when it came out, but I just couldn't justify a "sports car" at this point in my life (I know it's a sports sedan, but it would be by far the sportiest car I've ever owned).  This new Y model fits my lifestyle much better.

These new factories are great, and hopefully will "bring the savings to the consumer".  But when's the right time to jump in?  I think of the iphone, and if you were an early adopter you might have been upset when the iphone 3g came out and your technology was now outdated.  Then it happened again when 4g (LTE) became the standard.  What if the same thing happens with batteries and all of a sudden they find a way to give you 500 miles of range rather than 300, and the ability to charge it in the time it takes to pee at a rest stop, with 99% efficiency?
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That's the thing about buying a Tesla; you just have to be content with the Tech you are getting. There's always a chance the car you buy will be "obsolete" a week or a few months after you buy it. On the other hand, every few months they send out OTA (over the air) updates that usually apply to all the cars. It might be convenience items like navigation or easy entry/exit, or it might be a radical improvement like the new charging speeds. They update prices on the regular; a tricked out P100DL was $160K+ a few years ago, $150K last year, and now you can get them for $125K.

IMO the best option is to buy a low mileage used Tesla. This past weekend used P100Ds were dropping $12-16K overnight, from $110-115K to under $100K. Or buy an inventory car. Right now you can buy a never titled car with 50-2000 miles on it (some have been used as loaner vehicles) for discounts of $20-40K over specing out a new build.

example - 2018 P100D with 144 miles for $105,600. That's $20.9K below the current price, and $39,400 below what it listed for last year.

 
...none of which I can afford, even as an FBG.  At this point my wife and I have two vehicles both of which have over 100k miles on them (one 4 door sedan, and one small SUV).  At their age and mileage, neither are worth much so the plan is just to drive them into the ground and maybe get $1-2k back for them.  That could be later this year if something breaks down on them, or it could be 5-10 years down the road.  Our next vehicle purchase will likely be a "do everything family SUV" that can tow at least 3,500 pounds (hopefully 5k+ pounds).  Once that box is checked, the next vehicle purchase I'd love to be an BEV (at this point the Y, as the timing with production should be right). 

 
culdeus said:
The other deep dark secret of Musk's plan to rule the world is that he wants to take your batteries and put them in power banks and power walls.  As it turns out a 10 year battery still has 60% of it's useful capacity which if you aren't planning on moving it anywhere is perfect for a solar energy storage situation.

Long term we will be charging our ancient cells all day with solar and dumping that energy into our cars at night.  And any extra energy we sell or use.  
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Thought it was far more than that.  Aren't the batteries in the cars still 90%+ after 100k miles driven?

 
matttyl said:
Exactly.  That's the only way I can justify it.  If they are greener, so be it.  I live in a state where most electricity comes from coal, so I'm not even going to pretend that this is a "green" (environmental) decision.  It will be a "green" (monetary) one.  I loved the 3 when it came out, but I just couldn't justify a "sports car" at this point in my life (I know it's a sports sedan, but it would be by far the sportiest car I've ever owned).  This new Y model fits my lifestyle much better.

These new factories are great, and hopefully will "bring the savings to the consumer".  But when's the right time to jump in?  I think of the iphone, and if you were an early adopter you might have been upset when the iphone 3g came out and your technology was now outdated.  Then it happened again when 4g (LTE) became the standard.  What if the same thing happens with batteries and all of a sudden they find a way to give you 500 miles of range rather than 300, and the ability to charge it in the time it takes to pee at a rest stop, with 99% efficiency?
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what state?

 
matttyl said:
culdeus said:
The other deep dark secret of Musk's plan to rule the world is that he wants to take your batteries and put them in power banks and power walls.  As it turns out a 10 year battery still has 60% of it's useful capacity which if you aren't planning on moving it anywhere is perfect for a solar energy storage situation.

Long term we will be charging our ancient cells all day with solar and dumping that energy into our cars at night.  And any extra energy we sell or use.  
Click to expand...
Thought it was far more than that.  Aren't the batteries in the cars still 90%+ after 100k miles driven?
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Avoid the 90Kwh packs. For unknown reasons (at this point), those cars seem to be degrading faster (like on the order of 10-15% after 3-4 years.)

The 60, 70, 75, 85, and 100 battery packs have been pretty consistent overall. You usually see around 3-5% degradation in year one and 1-2% in subsequent years. Model S 85s that had 265 miles range in 2012-2013 are seeing around 10% degradation. Here is a guy selling a 2013 85 that gets 236 miles on a full charge (11% degradation.)

Aside - the battery pack and powertrain [warranty] on the Model X and Model S is 8 years / 100K miles. For the Model 3, they have specific warranty language that they will replace the battery if it drops below 70% (i.e., Long Range = 325 miles so if it won't charge past 227.5 in the next 8 years they'll replace the battery.)

 
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culdeus said:
The other deep dark secret of Musk's plan to rule the world is that he wants to take your batteries and put them in power banks and power walls.  As it turns out a 10 year battery still has 60% of it's useful capacity which if you aren't planning on moving it anywhere is perfect for a solar energy storage situation.

Long term we will be charging our ancient cells all day with solar and dumping that energy into our cars at night.  And any extra energy we sell or use.  
Click to expand...
Solar City shingles are getting incredibly cheap and work efficiently in cloudy cities (go Ohio!).  It is only a matter of time that "normal" roofing is completely replaced.

 
Recently got this email from Tesla:

Recently, Senate Bill 1415 and House Bill 2940 were filed with the intent to restrict Tesla service centers in Texas. These bills want to ban a manufacturer’s ability to provide vehicle service to customers directly and could therefore limit customers’ access to service in Texas.

If you believe Texas should not prohibit your right to choose where you service your vehicles, please take a few minutes to contact your legislator and ask them to oppose Senate Bill 1415 and House Bill 2940.
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What could be a legitimate (i.e. not being a shill for the FF industry) reason to support this?

 
I'm still thinking a used model S for $50k'ish.  Have never been in/driven any of them but the clearly larger S seems much more a "family" type of car then the 3 from a room perspective.  I also love the way the S looks.  If I buy it will be in the fall time frame so hopefully all the recent new price reductions will be baked into the used price.

 
James Daulton said:
I'm still thinking a used model S for $50k'ish.  Have never been in/driven any of them but the clearly larger S seems much more a "family" type of car then the 3 from a room perspective.  I also love the way the S looks.  If I buy it will be in the fall time frame so hopefully all the recent new price reductions will be baked into the used price.
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You are looking at comparable pricing -- the only concern is battery replacement cost, which will be possibly sooner than later.

 
James Daulton said:
I'm still thinking a used model S for $50k'ish.  Have never been in/driven any of them but the clearly larger S seems much more a "family" type of car then the 3 from a room perspective.  I also love the way the S looks.  If I buy it will be in the fall time frame so hopefully all the recent new price reductions will be baked into the used price.
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Pretty good place to start your search for Used or Inventory Model S/X:

https://ev-cpo.com/hunter/

 
Just saw three carriers full of model 3's heading south on 95 between Jax and Daytona. I can't recall the last time I saw a single carrier filled with the same model of any other brand, let alone 3.

 
Just got a call from my delivery advisor.  He said the LR RWD model is 2 + weeks out and asked if I’d be willing to look at an AWD model at a discounted price. 

Range drops from 325 to 310 but that seems negligible.  

Anyone gotten one of these calls yet?  Interested to see the discount they offer.  

 
jb1020 said:
Just got a call from my delivery advisor.  He said the LR RWD model is 2 + weeks out and asked if I’d be willing to look at an AWD model at a discounted price. 

Range drops from 325 to 310 but that seems negligible.  

Anyone gotten one of these calls yet?  Interested to see the discount they offer.  
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Haven’t seen that but would jump on it.  The dual motor is quite a bit quicker and feels that way too.  Apparently the front motor is similar in design to the model S motors (induction) so it pulls harder.  The rear motor on the 3 is different, a permanent magne motor, which is cheaper to produce.  

 
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jb1020 said:
Just got a call from my delivery advisor.  He said the LR RWD model is 2 + weeks out and asked if I’d be willing to look at an AWD model at a discounted price. 

Range drops from 325 to 310 but that seems negligible.  

Anyone gotten one of these calls yet?  Interested to see the discount they offer.  
Click to expand...
Please let me know what they tell you.  I’m seriously considering a LR dual.  

 
dkp993 said:
Please let me know what they tell you.  I’m seriously considering a LR dual.  
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I told him I was interested and he’d get me some offers together...I’ll keep you in the loop!

Quicker and better handling seems like a good trade.  It’s a $4k difference in the price.  I’m anxious to see what they come down too.

 
jb1020 said:
Just got a call from my delivery advisor.  He said the LR RWD model is 2 + weeks out and asked if I’d be willing to look at an AWD model at a discounted price. 

Range drops from 325 to 310 but that seems negligible.  

Anyone gotten one of these calls yet?  Interested to see the discount they offer.  
Click to expand...
I would post this over on r/teslamotors and see what anyone else has seen in this area.

 
jb1020 said:
dkp993 said:
Please let me know what they tell you.  I’m seriously considering a LR dual.  
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I told him I was interested and he’d get me some offers together...I’ll keep you in the loop!

Quicker and better handling seems like a good trade.  It’s a $4k difference in the price.  I’m anxious to see what they come down too.
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Make sure you ask them the build date of the AWD. I know Tesla technically doesn't have model years but if it was built in December that's going to affect the depreciation down the road versus one that was built Q1 2019.

 
@jb1020 - they're asking you to switch from LR RWD to LR AWD?

If I'm reading this thread correctly folks have been seeing discounts of $3,300-3,500 this week on 2018 AWD. If they are offering you a 2019 build I imagine the discount will be less than that.

 
BobbyLayne said:
Make sure you ask them the build date of the AWD. I know Tesla technically doesn't have model years but if it was built in December that's going to affect the depreciation down the road versus one that was built Q1 2019.
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Why?  What changed?

 
dkp993 said:
In 30 days that’s impressive...

But seriously why? All else being equal and with no real model changes 1 year rarely makes any real difference in resale value.
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Down the line model years do matter though.  3 years out that 1 month is a BFD.

 
culdeus said:
Down the line model years do matter though.  3 years out that 1 month is a BFD.
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Not sure I buy that.  Have bought and sold a ton of cars and my life and a 1 year difference in a model range that has no significant changes makes no real difference and certainly isn’t a BFD.  

 
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