Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
1st Ballot
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Eli Manning, Retired and the HoF Debate (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter packersfan
- Start date
-OZ-
Footballguy
TheDirtyWord
Footballguy
Peter King once said that players in the HOF were there because you couldn't tell the story of the NFL without them.
That characterization may be a bit too high brow, but I will say that the 5-year waiting period for consideration has only helped Eli and beating the Patriots in SB twice is as cool a resume builder as anyone can have.
That characterization may be a bit too high brow, but I will say that the 5-year waiting period for consideration has only helped Eli and beating the Patriots in SB twice is as cool a resume builder as anyone can have.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I’m in the camp that Eli doesn’t really deserve it. He played 16 seasons and did not win a playoff game in 14 of them. But he’ll get in on the basis of those other two seasons. The Giants had a .500 record with Eli starting across his career, and he wasn’t statistically all that great compared to his peers. But he’ll end up getting in because he’s a Manning and he beat the Pats twice.
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wlwiles
Footballguy
Well said. A career .500 record is a humongous sticking point for me. He'd be in the Hall of Very Good along with Philip Rivers and Matt Ryan, but he's not HOF to me
msudaisy26
Footballguy
This and his last name.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
Yeah good point, because Eli Plunkett would just get ignored by voters.
msudaisy26
Footballguy
Lol, or the Manning name carries a lot of weight in the NFL
Lansdowne
Footballguy
Eli's getting in for a few reasons:
- Beat the Patriots twice in the Super Bowl (including preventing 19-0)
- Last name is Manning
- Played for New York
Otherwise he's remembered the same way Jim Plunkett was. Pro Football Reference has him scored on their HOF monitor as 86.01, below the 103.58 average of existing HOF QB's. Russell Wilson is ranked higher than him, and he's considered by many to be Hall of Good-to-Great but not Hall of Fame worthy. Eli's getting in, and you know what, good for him. But there are many factors in play going beyond his body of work.
- Beat the Patriots twice in the Super Bowl (including preventing 19-0)
- Last name is Manning
- Played for New York
Otherwise he's remembered the same way Jim Plunkett was. Pro Football Reference has him scored on their HOF monitor as 86.01, below the 103.58 average of existing HOF QB's. Russell Wilson is ranked higher than him, and he's considered by many to be Hall of Good-to-Great but not Hall of Fame worthy. Eli's getting in, and you know what, good for him. But there are many factors in play going beyond his body of work.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Comparing Plunkett to Eli . . .
- Both ended up with exactly a .500 winning percentage.
- Both ended up with exactly 8 career playoff wins.
- Both only had one season ranked in the Top 10 in passer rating (both were 9th).
- Five highest rankings in passing yards in a season: Plunkett (2, 6, 7, 8, 10), Eli (4, 5, 5, 6, 6)
- Best 5 fantasy seasons: Plunket (3, 6, 6, 11, 16), Eli (5, 6, 10, 10, 11)
- Years ranked in the Top 5 for most interceptions in a season: Plunkett (1, 2, 2, 3, 5), Eli (1, 1, 1, 2, 4, 4)
- Career sack % (Plunket - 9th), Eli (1st)
Clearly, I am cherry picking stats here. Manning had 90 more starts than Plunkett, so obviously Eli's counting stats in a pass happy era lap Plunkett's. But neither one was very efficient, and both had issues with turning the ball over.
Chaka
Footballguy
Works for me.
Tau837
Footballguy
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
Eli is a player that if he got in I wouldn't care, if he didn't get in I wouldn't care.
Personally, I don't think he's a HOF player. He was just statistically above average. Winning 2 Super Bowls doesn't do it for me, that's a team accomplishment.
Personally, I don't think he's a HOF player. He was just statistically above average. Winning 2 Super Bowls doesn't do it for me, that's a team accomplishment.
There's no debate for me
He's Hall of Fame worthy
At the time of his retirement he ranked 7th all time in completions,passing yards and touchdowns
He still ranks #11 in all those categories
Two time Super Bowl MVP
4 Pro Bowls
Walter Payton Man of the Year winner
He's a Hall of Famer
Haters gonna hate
Doesn't matter
He's Hall of Fame worthy
At the time of his retirement he ranked 7th all time in completions,passing yards and touchdowns
He still ranks #11 in all those categories
Two time Super Bowl MVP
4 Pro Bowls
Walter Payton Man of the Year winner
He's a Hall of Famer
Haters gonna hate
Doesn't matter
Chaka
Footballguy
I think longevity almost always gets overlooked and dismissed when it absolutely should not. The average NFL career is under four seasons. If you make it 10+ you're doing something really well. If you do it as a starter (for 200+ games in Eli's case), you're a damn good player.
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
That's a dumb standard by King. I mean, if we are using that, then David Tyree has to go in the Hall as well since the defining catch of the Super Bowl where they beat the undefeated Patriots was made by Tyree.
I also kind of subscribe to the theory of can you tell the story of the NFL without including player X.....IMO the only reason you include Eli is because of the two super bowl wins over the Pats....if there was ever a player where removing that tidbit would make a difference....I think it would be Eli....even with decent top 10 stats his career had very few defining moments other then those two seasons....empty stats so to speak....you could definitely tell the NFL story without him otherwise...but other players have probably gotten in with less on their resumes
habsfan
Footballguy
He's beautifully polarizing. In HOF discussions about players people say someone is, "a compiler" but people will also say about players earlier in their careers, "Well if he keeps this up for x more seasons...".
Fans also criticize or look to replace their good or very good QB because, "You can't win with that guy" or "He can't win the big one".
It won't rustle my jimmies if he gets in. Above average career + two rings against the Belichick / Brady dynasty isn't nothing.
Fans also criticize or look to replace their good or very good QB because, "You can't win with that guy" or "He can't win the big one".
It won't rustle my jimmies if he gets in. Above average career + two rings against the Belichick / Brady dynasty isn't nothing.
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
What's next, Vinny Testaverde in the HOF?
Chaka
Footballguy
Is that really the message you took away from my post?
-OZ-
Footballguy
You think they’re on a similar level?
Eli had high moments and longevity. IMO it takes both to make it to the hall, although on a sliding scale from Terrell Davis to around Zach Thomas range.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
As already indicated, I agree that Eli will get in. Even though he started a ton of games and the logic is you have to be a good QB to start 234 games, that really isn't 100% true. Eli gets props for going to work every week. If they had a perfect attendance award like some companies do, he'd win it. He started almost every game for 14 years. I left out his rookie season and his final year when he got benched after a month.
IMO, the best way to compare players across different eras is to compare them to their immediate peers . . . the guy that played at the same time. Here are Eli's average yearly rankings in the major passing categories.
Completion % - 20th
Passing Yards - 10th
Passing TD - 10th
INT - 7th (11 seasons in the Top 10)
Passer Rating - 19th
Given that their are 32 teams (and 32 starting QBs), 16 of them would rank in the top half of the league and 16 would rank in the bottom half of the league. With injuries and promotions / demotions each year, it never really works out like that. But for arguments sake, let's say an average league ranking in these categories would be 16th. Eli was BELOW AVERAGE over his career in completion percentage, interceptions, and passer rating.
Since 2000, there are 18 other QB that made 150+ starts with a better winning percentage than Eli. That list includes Donovan McNabb, Tony Romo, Alex Smith, Philip Rivers, Joe Flacco, Matt Hasselbeck, Matt Ryan, Ryan Tannehill, Kirk Cousins, Carson Palmer, and Andy Dalton.
Again, that won't matter to his HOF candidacy, but Eli continuing to start for the Giants year after year was actually netting New York below average efficiency numbers. Eli ended his career as the second highest paid QB ever (just behind his brother Painting Manning).
Maybe one day in the off season I will pull the data for other top QBs over the past 20-25 years to illustrate that Eli's career numbers weren't that impressive on a year-by-year basis. But his career totals sure look good, as do his two wins against NE when it mattered the most.
IMO, the best way to compare players across different eras is to compare them to their immediate peers . . . the guy that played at the same time. Here are Eli's average yearly rankings in the major passing categories.
Completion % - 20th
Passing Yards - 10th
Passing TD - 10th
INT - 7th (11 seasons in the Top 10)
Passer Rating - 19th
Given that their are 32 teams (and 32 starting QBs), 16 of them would rank in the top half of the league and 16 would rank in the bottom half of the league. With injuries and promotions / demotions each year, it never really works out like that. But for arguments sake, let's say an average league ranking in these categories would be 16th. Eli was BELOW AVERAGE over his career in completion percentage, interceptions, and passer rating.
Since 2000, there are 18 other QB that made 150+ starts with a better winning percentage than Eli. That list includes Donovan McNabb, Tony Romo, Alex Smith, Philip Rivers, Joe Flacco, Matt Hasselbeck, Matt Ryan, Ryan Tannehill, Kirk Cousins, Carson Palmer, and Andy Dalton.
Again, that won't matter to his HOF candidacy, but Eli continuing to start for the Giants year after year was actually netting New York below average efficiency numbers. Eli ended his career as the second highest paid QB ever (just behind his brother Painting Manning).
Maybe one day in the off season I will pull the data for other top QBs over the past 20-25 years to illustrate that Eli's career numbers weren't that impressive on a year-by-year basis. But his career totals sure look good, as do his two wins against NE when it mattered the most.
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
I think if you just look at compiler numbers and rankings at the time of retirement, you wouldn't be able to distinguish between Eli Manning and Vinny Testaverde. Eli was statisitcally average most years, not sure I would put him in the HOF for a couple SB runs.
-OZ-
Footballguy
SUMMARY
Career
G 233
AV 141
Cmp% 56.5
Yds 46233
TD 275
Record 90-123-1
0 SB, 2x pro bowl
7 years of backup duty.
SUMMARY
Career
G 236
AV 169
Cmp% 60.3
Yds 57023
TD 366
Record 117-117
2x SB Champ 2x SB MVP, 4x pro bowl
1 year backup duty
You might not consider 10000 more yards and 91 TDs significant. I think the championships and SB MVPs push Eli over the line.
as I continue reading this thread.....I keep coming back to the bolded....thanks for digging this up.....
pinkstapler
Footballguy
I don't know how or why this would really matter in the long run; but it bothers me more him getting in first ballot than it would if he got in later on down the road. Maybe because it at least semi accounts for the largely pedestrian career he had.
Also I don't agree with the Aikman comparison another poster made. Sure Aikman was surrounded by more talent than Eli, but it was largely on offense and he was still a key cog in that offensive machine. Eli's success was (IMO grossly understated as well) in large part to all time defenses the Giants had. He had 0% to do with how well that defense performed.
To his credit, if there was a Hall of Clutch, Eli would not only be first ballot, but they could dedicate an entire wing to him. When the team needed him to perform the most, often on the biggest stage and under the brightest lights, was when he would be at his best. But when the team asked that of him on Sunday at 1:00pm in 90% of the rest of the games of his career, you got average at best performances. To me, that's not HOF material. Eli could elevate himself at times in a big moment, but he never seemed able to elevate his team like truly elite QBs can.
Also I don't agree with the Aikman comparison another poster made. Sure Aikman was surrounded by more talent than Eli, but it was largely on offense and he was still a key cog in that offensive machine. Eli's success was (IMO grossly understated as well) in large part to all time defenses the Giants had. He had 0% to do with how well that defense performed.
To his credit, if there was a Hall of Clutch, Eli would not only be first ballot, but they could dedicate an entire wing to him. When the team needed him to perform the most, often on the biggest stage and under the brightest lights, was when he would be at his best. But when the team asked that of him on Sunday at 1:00pm in 90% of the rest of the games of his career, you got average at best performances. To me, that's not HOF material. Eli could elevate himself at times in a big moment, but he never seemed able to elevate his team like truly elite QBs can.
I think part of the problem is that it's the hall of FAME, not the hall of GREAT PLAYERS.
That's an important distinction. Eli won what is, to this day, the most memorable Super Bowl of my lifetime, as a severe underdog. His statistics are weak for a HOFer, but his story, his fame, is not. I have no problem with putting him in....though it shouldn't be as a first ballot guy
That's an important distinction. Eli won what is, to this day, the most memorable Super Bowl of my lifetime, as a severe underdog. His statistics are weak for a HOFer, but his story, his fame, is not. I have no problem with putting him in....though it shouldn't be as a first ballot guy
FYI @Tau837 Eli is 11th now in passing yards and TD' and your guy Phillip Rivers would be a HOF lock if he had postseason success.
I think the closest player to Eli, in terms of production and SB success, is probably Stafford. Eli's extra SB win is the major difference. Plunkett is the only two time SB winning QB to not be in the HOF so along with Eli's compiling of stats I can't get worked up about him being in the HOF even if I never at any time thought he was great.
Stafford will eventually get into the HOF as well. Get a SB win and compile a ton of stats, you going to get in.
Hot take alert. If Baltimore had not drafted Lamar Jackson then Joe Flacco would have got in as well and his career numbers and post season success would have been very similar to Eli and Staffords.
oldmanhawkins
Footballguy
I am tired of hearing that Eli should be in the HOF because you can’t tell the story of the league without him. You can find Eli memorabilia at the hall already so he’s already a part of the story. They can make a whole exhibit about those super bowls, I just don’t see why you’d need his goober face all bronzed since he clearly isnt one of the greatest QBs to have ever played.
Chaka
Footballguy
The 2011 SB winning Giants defense was 25th in points and 27th in yards.
The offense was 9th & 8th respectively.
The 2007 SB winning defense was 17th in points and 7th in yards. The offense was 14th & 16th.
I don't think Eli ever played with an "all time" defense.
2008 & 20016 were the only seasons of his career where he even played with a top 10 scoring defense.
2007, 2008, 2010, 2013 & 2016 were the only top 10 yardage defenses he played with.
The 2008 defense was probably the "best" he played with, ranking #5 in scoring and yardage. But the offense was #3 in scoring and #7 in yards so it's not like they didn't hold up their end.
The Giants had six top 10 scoring offenses and seven top 10 yardage offenses during his career. Generally speaking the offenses were better than the defenses during his career.
The SBs will get Eli into the HoF but you can't simply suggest that those were defensive driven seasons. Both sides of the ball peaked at the right times to make their SB runs.
Tau837
Footballguy
I expect Rivers will get in, and deservedly so. He not only exceled in accumulated statistics (quantity) but also in rate statistics (quality). But that is a story that has been discussed for a long time now in the thread Chase Stuart started about it and should probably stay there.
I don't see much of a difference between 10th and 11th, and I think it is more relevant what rankings were at time of retirement than 5 years later in the golden era of passing.
Eli is going to get in, and I think he deserves it. I expect he will be first ballot, and I don't have a problem with that as some others have posted they do.
Soulfly3
Footballguy
woops (i thought so too, tbf)
-OZ-
Footballguy
Do they release the results? I’m just curious how close he was.
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
They not even playing in the same era. It would be foolish for me to compare say, Testaverde to Joe Montana. Even though stat wise, Testaverde holds up pretty well because different eras have different game styles. Testaverde started playing in the late 80s. From like 1987, his first season until he retired in 2007, the teams average around 200-210 passing yards per game. Then in 2011 the league changed the rules to protect defenseless receivers, and the teams began to average around 230-240 yards per game. So the bulk of Eli's career was spent in a high passing era so I'd expect him to have better passing numbers.
But, if I'm comparing Eli to comp QBs with respect to yardage totals, I'm looking at guys like Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Ben Roethlisberger, Phillip Rivers, Matt Ryan, and Matt Stafford to compare and see how he stacks up against guys who's primes were in the same era. When I'm comparing Testaverde I'm looking at guys like Dan Marino, John Elway, Warren Moon, Drew Bledsoe.
I'm not saying Testaverde is a HOF player. I'm saying he's a stat compiler like Eli Manning was. When you look at guys from Manning's era, he falls short unless your end-all-be-all for the HOF is based on his performance in two games. 4 pro bowls in 15 years is actually quite pathetic, and he never made All-Pro. That doesn't scream HOF to me.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I made a simple scoring system for a basic analysis of QBs from roughly the past 25 years. Call it 26, as I used Peyton's rookie season (1998) as a starting off point, and these QB's had to have played a decent chuck of their careers in the 2000s. Since most of us probably agree that a player should have been Top 5 at his position at some point, I looked at 4 main passing categories . . . completion %, passing yards, passing TD, and passer rating. If a player ranked in one of those categories in a season, he earned 1 point. The most points a player could earn in a season was 4 points. Looking at the QBs from that data set, here's the updated scorecard through this season. These are career totals (ie, included points earned from prior to 1998 for the earlier players).
Eli Manning earned 7 points. Here are all the players in that time that equaled or surpassed him.
Peyton - 51
Brees - 43
Brady - 35
Favre - 34
Rodgers - 27
Rivers - 20
Ryan - 18
Roethlisberger - 16
Romo - 15
Warner - 14
Stafford, Culpepper - 12
Goff, Prescott, Cousins, Mahomes - 11
Brad Johnson, Wilson, Palmer, Gannon - 10
Burrow - 9
Trent Green - 8
Josh Allen, Pennington, Garcia, Eli - 7
I realize this ignores post season success, as well as career totals. But this was intended as a comparison amount peers on a season-by-season basis based on ranking in the primary passing categories.
Eli Manning earned 7 points. Here are all the players in that time that equaled or surpassed him.
Peyton - 51
Brees - 43
Brady - 35
Favre - 34
Rodgers - 27
Rivers - 20
Ryan - 18
Roethlisberger - 16
Romo - 15
Warner - 14
Stafford, Culpepper - 12
Goff, Prescott, Cousins, Mahomes - 11
Brad Johnson, Wilson, Palmer, Gannon - 10
Burrow - 9
Trent Green - 8
Josh Allen, Pennington, Garcia, Eli - 7
I realize this ignores post season success, as well as career totals. But this was intended as a comparison amount peers on a season-by-season basis based on ranking in the primary passing categories.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
I never said I would personally vote for him 1st Ballot, I just assumed with his 2 Super Bowls over Brady/Belichick, his TV show, the Manning bloodline, just figured he might skate right thru
I'm surprised, not in any way am I appalled or upset, just kinda surprised he didn't fly right thru
I imagine he'll get in but in a year where they could only find 4 and tbh the recent HoF classes in the last 5-6 years have seemed a little soft overall.
Kind of agree with Sanders and his comments a few years back.
But If Eli couldn't be the 5th player this season, then why next season or 3 seasons down the road?
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Mister CIA
Footballguy
It's not the Hall of Great Football Players, y'all.
Eli falls on a spectrum somewhere between Hall of Famer and Gene Tenace.
Eli falls on a spectrum somewhere between Hall of Famer and Gene Tenace.
1
Of these Eli gets in over Rivers easy, Atkins and perhaps Pouncey who may wait a turn based on who didn't get in this year. Brees, Fitz and Witten are likely 1st ballot, imo.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
The Hall of the Very Good, terrific idea!
oldmanhawkins
Footballguy
See, I disagree. The purpose of the HOF in all sports is to honor the great players through the induction process, to celebrate their excellence by memorializing them for all to view, and to preserve the history of the game through the stories of these players as well as other exhibits.
It’s not about fame. William Perry is famous, but not a hall of famer (actually that’s false as he’s in the WWE hall of fame). It’s not about including players necessary to tell the story. Kapernick plays an important role in the somewhat recent story of the NFL but not a hall of famer.
Eli Manning is the brother of a hall of famer who had a nice long career as a starter in a big time market with some moments of greatness is the postseason. He wasn’t a great player. I’m not sure he’s even in the hall of very good.
-OZ-
Footballguy
I kinda agree. I’m just saying that if FAME is the key, he’s in. If it’s the Hall of the Elite, Hall of the Best, Hall of Players Who Rule the League at a High Enough Level for a Long Enough Time, awesome. Eli shouldn’t be in the HoPWRtLaaHELfaLET.
