Everyone is sleeping on.... (1 Viewer)

[Touchdown There]

Pierre Garcon - being completely overlooked.

I am a big fan of RG3 and think that someone from the WR group will break out in a big way with the Redskins. With RG3, the play is never dead and someone is going to connect deep. Convince me on Garcon...

 

[PhantomJB]

SHONN GREENE - Just don't understand the hate this guy seems get.He's avg ypc career is over 4.0Contract year + Tony S+ Slimmed down + No LT = decent shot at good #'s

+1I know he's not a dynamic talent, but he'll be getting a lot of carries this year. He looks to me like a pretty good bet to finish around RB18-20 again and (according to MFL) is being drafted around RB26/27. I recently went back and watched some of his game footage from last year and I saw a guy that runs hard and breaks a fair number of tackles... fits nicely what Tony Sparano wants to do, imo.

ADP in the 20-25 range seems right to me. Maybe he'll get a lot of carries but IMO a low ceiling due to lack of TD's with Tebow likely to come in around the goal line. Last year McGahee rushed for nearly 1200 yds but only 4 rush TD's.

 

[David Yudkin]

ADP in the 20-25 range seems right to me. Maybe he'll get a lot of carries but IMO a low ceiling due to lack of TD's with Tebow likely to come in around the goal line. Last year, McGahee rushed for nearly 1200 yds but only 4 rush TD's.

I'm not sure anyone can every really predict with any clarity or certainty how many TDs a player will score, as IMO that's as random a statistic as they come. McGahee only scored 4 rushing TDs with Tebow at QB. Yet McCoy scored 17 times on the ground playing mostly behind Vick. Same thing with Cam Newton. He had 14 rushing TDs last year. QB Steve Grogan had 12 rushing TD one year . . . and 1 the next.We used to berate Curtis Martin for playing on the Jets, having low upside, and never getting in the endzone. One year he had 365 touches and TWO total touchdowns. The next year he scored 14 times. More recently, DeAngelo Williams scored 20 times . . . and 7 the next.In the main, I would prefer to have a running back that is going to get the ball a lot. Greene had 283 touches last year and his primary threat to touches is now gone (LT with 117 touches). Unless people see better options on the Jets roster that I am missing, I have a hard time seeing how Greene doesn't get the ball 300 times this season. There were only 8 RB last year that had 300 touches. Given that his ADP is in the 20's and his workload may be near RB 10 in terms of touches, I don't see how that is indicative of anything but a decent value proposition . . . and I personally can't stand the Jets (sorry Jet fans). At that point in a fantasy draft, there won't be many players available that are reasonable bets to hit 300 touches. Most remaining backs will be job share running backs that will have to share the workload.

 

[Mr Rodgers neighborhood]

I think Randall Cobbis going to continue to ascend. Jones isnt improving, Driver is on his farewell tour, and Finley is a whole lot of hyper. They lack a pass receiving back as well. I think Conv ends up catching 60 balls. He is simply explosive, the Packers don’t have anyone else like him.

I agree 100%. I think that he nears 1000 yards this year. With the Packers base offense using three WR sets, and my feeling that he establishes the WR3 job as his instead of the rotation with Jones and Driver, I don't think it's far fetched that the Packers have three WR that produce 1000 yards. I love him long term. Jennings has a year remaining on his contract, and Nelson has one elite year under his belt. One way or another, I think Cobb will end up as the WR1 or 2 in a year or so.

I have Cobb in dynasty and like him long term, but this year? I don't see it. I could easily imagine him cutting in Jones and Driver's numbers, and therefore coming close to 45/650/5 TDs. But there is no way he get close to 1000 this year unless there is an injury to Jennings or Nelson.

He doesn't have to have Jennings or Nelson go down to injury. My assumption is that the rotation at the no.3 WR spot ends, and Cobb gets the work ahead of Jones and Driver. We'll see less sub packages and Cobb is a base offensive player. Jones and Drivers numbers decline dramatically, while Cobbs improve. 45-650-5 should be attainable in his sleep. Randall Cobb is the most dynamic playmaker at Rodgers disposal. The guy is flat out electric.

 

[drater]

Meachem. 1.75 fantasy points (no ppr) per career target. If he doubles his career high in targets (64), he'll score 200 plus points (again, standard) and be an absolute steal anywhere close to current ADP.

The reason Meachem's targets are low and points per target are high is because he only runs deep routes, which just so happens to be the same type of routes San Diego will have him run.

That's the common response I see when Meachem comes up but do you seriously think San Diego signed him to be their 5th option in the passing game? VJAX had 115 targets last year, Meachem is "replacing" him and has never topped 64 targets. Something has to give, either he regresses terribly or explodes with the increased opportunity, I'm betting the former.

I think they signed him to come in and run deep routes to take the top off the defense.Do you expect Meachem to equal Vincent Jackson's target numbers? It's more logical to me that Floyd, Brown, and Gates' targets increase at the expense of the new deep threat. Jackson had 101, 107, and 114 targets with his 3 full years in the San Diego offense respectively. I don't see Meachem's targets doubling. It's possible he steps right in and duplicates Vincent Jackson's looks, but it's not likely. He's an interesting sleeper. A career 16.1 ypc receiver with a catch percentage of 63%. 100 targets would put him at 1,018 yards. Keep in mind though, Jackson's career catch percentage in this particular role is 55.5%.

It seems much more likely that his 2012 targets look like Jackson's in SD than his own in NO. SD isn't adopting the NO offense. Meachem is entering the SD offense.ETA: Over the last 3 years, VJax has had 245 targets in 35 games for 7 targets per game. Floyd filled that role for 10 games when VJax was out and had 76 targets for 7.6 targets per game. Crayton filled the role for 3 games when both VJax and FLoyd were out and had 22 targets or 7.3 targets per game. If Floyd and Crayton can fill the role and receive the same number of targets as VJax, what makes you think Meachem cannot?

Couple those target stats with Meachem's already WR1 equivalent numbers in games Colston missed and/or Meach saw 8+ targets and it screams break out performance to me. Even if all VJax did was run deep (he didn't), and Meach just got those looks, no reason to think the targets would diminish, since the fluff pieces out of SD are talking up his top level speed from the get go, rather than build up speed like Jackson has. Health permitting, I think he'll be a WR1 you can grab in round 5-8, depending on when you draft.

 

[FunkyPlutos]

I feel like I'm way higher on Kyle Rudolph than others. Everything I read is that he's going to be a key part of the offense. Maybe folks are spooked by the Carlson signing, but I foresee lots of 2 TE sets and a breakout second year for Rudolph.

Agreed. Just from following Ponder and Rudolph on twitter, it seems like they are very good friends off the field. I think some of that chemistry will translate to on the field production.

Both 's...I really like Rudolph this year!

 

[loose circuits]

Andre Holmes WR Dallas

Laurent Robinson is gone. Somebody has got to pick up the slack. The Cowboys didn't draft a WR with their early draft picks and Danny Coale (who may work out down the line as a slot receiver) broke a bone in his foot which will set back his shot at the 3rd WR position in the short term. And I really can't take Kevin Ogletree seriously as finally having a breakout year.

Holmes was the first name out of Jerry Jones’ mouth at the scouting combine in February when the Cowboys’ owner/general manager discussed the possibility of losing Laurent Robinson in free agency. http://espn.go.com/b...ut-andre-holmes

Maybe the Cowboys take another underachieving veteran like Robinson. But maybe they don't and the answer is on their bench. They have had good luck with off the radar players from smaller schools (Romo, Miles Austin). Is Holmes in that category? Who knows, but he was not rostered (until I grabbed him) in any dynasty league I am in that has open waivers, so, I think he is worth taking a flyer on. I think that during training camp we should have a pretty good idea of where he stands.

Very nice. I love having to look someone up. That's what makes these threads great.Ricardo Lockette. Big WR with 4.34 speed. Nothing too established in front of him on the depth chart. You have to like his 52.5 ypc on two catches last year.

Did a little research on him and liked what I saw - quick and with good hands. I think he has a real good shot if Mike Williams can't get in shape and/or control his weight.

the problem is Baldwin, Tate, and Durham are all fighting for that spot and performing well. Also, will they be run heavy and have a lot of 2 TE sets now?

Are they? According to Brock Huard and Mike Salk of ESPN radio, who discussed this in the link: http://mynorthwest.com/422/673135/Seahawks-have-high-hopes-for-Ricardo-Lockette, that spot is the split end position and is what Huard calls the "big body spot" and thinks that Baldwin and Tate "don't fit there." Huard feels that the opportunity then goes to either Lockette or Durham. However Durham doesn't have close to the speed that Lockette has, so IMO he has the edge. Plus, for what it is worth Pete Carroll really likes him:

http://www.rotoworld.com/recent/nfl/6826/ricardo-lockette

Seahawks coach Pete Carroll says WR Ricardo Lockette is "a guy we really see a big future in.""He's got tremendous speed. ... He's got great skills," said Carroll. "He's 6-2 something and he's just learning the game. A very, very raw player but a guy that we really see a lot of great stuff."

Durham is not slow either. Didn't he run a 4.4 40 at 6-4 or even taller? I own lockette so I hope you are right, but I am not getting my hopes up.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

Andre Holmes WR Dallas

Laurent Robinson is gone. Somebody has got to pick up the slack. The Cowboys didn't draft a WR with their early draft picks and Danny Coale (who may work out down the line as a slot receiver) broke a bone in his foot which will set back his shot at the 3rd WR position in the short term. And I really can't take Kevin Ogletree seriously as finally having a breakout year.

Holmes was the first name out of Jerry Jones’ mouth at the scouting combine in February when the Cowboys’ owner/general manager discussed the possibility of losing Laurent Robinson in free agency. http://espn.go.com/b...ut-andre-holmes

Maybe the Cowboys take another underachieving veteran like Robinson. But maybe they don't and the answer is on their bench. They have had good luck with off the radar players from smaller schools (Romo, Miles Austin). Is Holmes in that category? Who knows, but he was not rostered (until I grabbed him) in any dynasty league I am in that has open waivers, so, I think he is worth taking a flyer on. I think that during training camp we should have a pretty good idea of where he stands.

Very nice. I love having to look someone up. That's what makes these threads great.Ricardo Lockette. Big WR with 4.34 speed. Nothing too established in front of him on the depth chart. You have to like his 52.5 ypc on two catches last year.

Did a little research on him and liked what I saw - quick and with good hands. I think he has a real good shot if Mike Williams can't get in shape and/or control his weight.

the problem is Baldwin, Tate, and Durham are all fighting for that spot and performing well. Also, will they be run heavy and have a lot of 2 TE sets now?

Are they? According to Brock Huard and Mike Salk of ESPN radio, who discussed this in the link: http://mynorthwest.com/422/673135/Seahawks-have-high-hopes-for-Ricardo-Lockette, that spot is the split end position and is what Huard calls the "big body spot" and thinks that Baldwin and Tate "don't fit there." Huard feels that the opportunity then goes to either Lockette or Durham. However Durham doesn't have close to the speed that Lockette has, so IMO he has the edge. Plus, for what it is worth Pete Carroll really likes him:

http://www.rotoworld.com/recent/nfl/6826/ricardo-lockette

Seahawks coach Pete Carroll says WR Ricardo Lockette is "a guy we really see a big future in.""He's got tremendous speed. ... He's got great skills," said Carroll. "He's 6-2 something and he's just learning the game. A very, very raw player but a guy that we really see a lot of great stuff."

Durham is not slow either. Didn't he run a 4.4 40 at 6-4 or even taller? I own lockette so I hope you are right, but I am not getting my hopes up.

Lockette is a big fast guy. That's about it. Here are negatives from some scouting reports:Negatives: Hands are like bricks at times, drops a lot of easy passes... Playing at the division two level can only hurt him... Was third on his team in receptions, one would expect an NFL caliber receiver to dominate his level of competition... Former track star who is more of an athlete than football player at this point, strictly a measurable guy... A straight-line runner, has below-average change-of-direction skills and is not an elusive runner... Poor route runner, looks lazy at times... Played in a Wildcat offense, publicly blamed his poor statistics on the quarterback play at Fort Valley State... A project player, will take a few years to realize his potential... Comes with character concerns, initially signed with Auburn out of high school but did not qualify academically... Failed a drug test for high levels of testosterone following the 2009 NCAA Division II championship track meet... Takes too long for him to get to full speed.

Weaknesses:

Does not show explosion off the line or out of his breaks. Will not consistently stretch the field at the next level. Extremely raw route runner that is too high in transition and lacks the ability to set up defenders with head fakes. Will not always find the ball in the air.

 

[drunken slob]

BJGE can easily replicate what Ced Benson did in 2009-2010. One of the few RB's to approach 300 carries in an ascending offense. He doesn't fumble has a nose for the end zone and can catch better than most know since NE rarely used this capability. With an ADP of RB36 at Mock Draft Central, I feel he will easily represent major value. Bernard Scott sucks.

I went through the thread twice before posting, glad I did.I agree completely with you Jewru. I have to choose between Lawfirm and Ray Rice in August with the ability to keep either player for three years.Glad I'm not a voice in the wilderness.

 

[Hoosier16]

Andre Holmes WR Dallas

Laurent Robinson is gone. Somebody has got to pick up the slack. The Cowboys didn't draft a WR with their early draft picks and Danny Coale (who may work out down the line as a slot receiver) broke a bone in his foot which will set back his shot at the 3rd WR position in the short term. And I really can't take Kevin Ogletree seriously as finally having a breakout year.

Holmes was the first name out of Jerry Jones' mouth at the scouting combine in February when the Cowboys' owner/general manager discussed the possibility of losing Laurent Robinson in free agency. http://espn.go.com/b...ut-andre-holmes

Maybe the Cowboys take another underachieving veteran like Robinson. But maybe they don't and the answer is on their bench. They have had good luck with off the radar players from smaller schools (Romo, Miles Austin). Is Holmes in that category? Who knows, but he was not rostered (until I grabbed him) in any dynasty league I am in that has open waivers, so, I think he is worth taking a flyer on. I think that during training camp we should have a pretty good idea of where he stands.

Very nice. I love having to look someone up. That's what makes these threads great.Ricardo Lockette. Big WR with 4.34 speed. Nothing too established in front of him on the depth chart. You have to like his 52.5 ypc on two catches last year.

Did a little research on him and liked what I saw - quick and with good hands. I think he has a real good shot if Mike Williams can't get in shape and/or control his weight.

the problem is Baldwin, Tate, and Durham are all fighting for that spot and performing well. Also, will they be run heavy and have a lot of 2 TE sets now?

Are they? According to Brock Huard and Mike Salk of ESPN radio, who discussed this in the link: http://mynorthwest.c...icardo-Lockette, that spot is the split end position and is what Huard calls the "big body spot" and thinks that Baldwin and Tate "don't fit there." Huard feels that the opportunity then goes to either Lockette or Durham. However Durham doesn't have close to the speed that Lockette has, so IMO he has the edge. Plus, for what it is worth Pete Carroll really likes him:

http://www.rotoworld...icardo-lockette

Seahawks coach Pete Carroll says WR Ricardo Lockette is "a guy we really see a big future in.""He's got tremendous speed. ... He's got great skills," said Carroll. "He's 6-2 something and he's just learning the game. A very, very raw player but a guy that we really see a lot of great stuff."

Durham is not slow either. Didn't he run a 4.4 40 at 6-4 or even taller? I own lockette so I hope you are right, but I am not getting my hopes up.

Lockette is a big fast guy. That's about it. Here are negatives from some scouting reports:Negatives: Hands are like bricks at times, drops a lot of easy passes... Playing at the division two level can only hurt him... Was third on his team in receptions, one would expect an NFL caliber receiver to dominate his level of competition... Former track star who is more of an athlete than football player at this point, strictly a measurable guy... A straight-line runner, has below-average change-of-direction skills and is not an elusive runner... Poor route runner, looks lazy at times... Played in a Wildcat offense, publicly blamed his poor statistics on the quarterback play at Fort Valley State... A project player, will take a few years to realize his potential... Comes with character concerns, initially signed with Auburn out of high school but did not qualify academically... Failed a drug test for high levels of testosterone following the 2009 NCAA Division II championship track meet... Takes too long for him to get to full speed.

Weaknesses:

Does not show explosion off the line or out of his breaks. Will not consistently stretch the field at the next level. Extremely raw route runner that is too high in transition and lacks the ability to set up defenders with head fakes. Will not always find the ball in the air.

Some of his positives contradict his negatives. Depneds upon the scout, I guess. Despite his lack of stats in college, he obviously showed enough promise to get a combine invite.

Strengths: Translates his exceptional speed onto the field whether from the slot or on the outside. Presses corners in a hurry on deep routes, will separate on comebacks when footwork is correct. Excellent hand-eye coordination to grab errant passes in any direction. Smooth on vertical routes, should specialize in skinny posts. Quick feet to show inside then fly to the outside route. Some elusiveness after the catch, but really shines when passes hit him on the run. Gives effort to shadow or engage defenders on run plays, will fight with corners at the line of scrimmage as a blocker.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

Andre Holmes WR Dallas

Laurent Robinson is gone. Somebody has got to pick up the slack. The Cowboys didn't draft a WR with their early draft picks and Danny Coale (who may work out down the line as a slot receiver) broke a bone in his foot which will set back his shot at the 3rd WR position in the short term. And I really can't take Kevin Ogletree seriously as finally having a breakout year.

Holmes was the first name out of Jerry Jones' mouth at the scouting combine in February when the Cowboys' owner/general manager discussed the possibility of losing Laurent Robinson in free agency. http://espn.go.com/b...ut-andre-holmes

Maybe the Cowboys take another underachieving veteran like Robinson. But maybe they don't and the answer is on their bench. They have had good luck with off the radar players from smaller schools (Romo, Miles Austin). Is Holmes in that category? Who knows, but he was not rostered (until I grabbed him) in any dynasty league I am in that has open waivers, so, I think he is worth taking a flyer on. I think that during training camp we should have a pretty good idea of where he stands.

Very nice. I love having to look someone up. That's what makes these threads great.Ricardo Lockette. Big WR with 4.34 speed. Nothing too established in front of him on the depth chart. You have to like his 52.5 ypc on two catches last year.

Did a little research on him and liked what I saw - quick and with good hands. I think he has a real good shot if Mike Williams can't get in shape and/or control his weight.

the problem is Baldwin, Tate, and Durham are all fighting for that spot and performing well. Also, will they be run heavy and have a lot of 2 TE sets now?

Are they? According to Brock Huard and Mike Salk of ESPN radio, who discussed this in the link: http://mynorthwest.c...icardo-Lockette, that spot is the split end position and is what Huard calls the "big body spot" and thinks that Baldwin and Tate "don't fit there." Huard feels that the opportunity then goes to either Lockette or Durham. However Durham doesn't have close to the speed that Lockette has, so IMO he has the edge. Plus, for what it is worth Pete Carroll really likes him:

http://www.rotoworld...icardo-lockette

Seahawks coach Pete Carroll says WR Ricardo Lockette is "a guy we really see a big future in.""He's got tremendous speed. ... He's got great skills," said Carroll. "He's 6-2 something and he's just learning the game. A very, very raw player but a guy that we really see a lot of great stuff."

Durham is not slow either. Didn't he run a 4.4 40 at 6-4 or even taller? I own lockette so I hope you are right, but I am not getting my hopes up.

Lockette is a big fast guy. That's about it. Here are negatives from some scouting reports:Negatives: Hands are like bricks at times, drops a lot of easy passes... Playing at the division two level can only hurt him... Was third on his team in receptions, one would expect an NFL caliber receiver to dominate his level of competition... Former track star who is more of an athlete than football player at this point, strictly a measurable guy... A straight-line runner, has below-average change-of-direction skills and is not an elusive runner... Poor route runner, looks lazy at times... Played in a Wildcat offense, publicly blamed his poor statistics on the quarterback play at Fort Valley State... A project player, will take a few years to realize his potential... Comes with character concerns, initially signed with Auburn out of high school but did not qualify academically... Failed a drug test for high levels of testosterone following the 2009 NCAA Division II championship track meet... Takes too long for him to get to full speed.

Weaknesses:

Does not show explosion off the line or out of his breaks. Will not consistently stretch the field at the next level. Extremely raw route runner that is too high in transition and lacks the ability to set up defenders with head fakes. Will not always find the ball in the air.

Some of his positives contradict his negatives. Depneds upon the scout, I guess. Despite his lack of stats in college, he obviously showed enough promise to get a combine invite.

Strengths: Translates his exceptional speed onto the field whether from the slot or on the outside. Presses corners in a hurry on deep routes, will separate on comebacks when footwork is correct. Excellent hand-eye coordination to grab errant passes in any direction. Smooth on vertical routes, should specialize in skinny posts. Quick feet to show inside then fly to the outside route. Some elusiveness after the catch, but really shines when passes hit him on the run. Gives effort to shadow or engage defenders on run plays, will fight with corners at the line of scrimmage as a blocker.

I guess it depends on the scout. Not many Division II guys last...especially ones that come into the league at age 25(now 26).

 

[Hoosier16]

Lockette is a big fast guy. That's about it. Here are negatives from some scouting reports:Negatives: Hands are like bricks at times, drops a lot of easy passes... Playing at the division two level can only hurt him... Was third on his team in receptions, one would expect an NFL caliber receiver to dominate his level of competition... Former track star who is more of an athlete than football player at this point, strictly a measurable guy... A straight-line runner, has below-average change-of-direction skills and is not an elusive runner... Poor route runner, looks lazy at times... Played in a Wildcat offense, publicly blamed his poor statistics on the quarterback play at Fort Valley State... A project player, will take a few years to realize his potential... Comes with character concerns, initially signed with Auburn out of high school but did not qualify academically... Failed a drug test for high levels of testosterone following the 2009 NCAA Division II championship track meet... Takes too long for him to get to full speed.Weaknessesoes not show explosion off the line or out of his breaks. Will not consistently stretch the field at the next level. Extremely raw route runner that is too high in transition and lacks the ability to set up defenders with head fakes. Will not always find the ball in the air.

Some of his positives contradict his negatives. Depneds upon the scout, I guess. Despite his lack of stats in college, he obviously showed enough promise to get a combine invite.

Strengths: Translates his exceptional speed onto the field whether from the slot or on the outside. Presses corners in a hurry on deep routes, will separate on comebacks when footwork is correct. Excellent hand-eye coordination to grab errant passes in any direction. Smooth on vertical routes, should specialize in skinny posts. Quick feet to show inside then fly to the outside route. Some elusiveness after the catch, but really shines when passes hit him on the run. Gives effort to shadow or engage defenders on run plays, will fight with corners at the line of scrimmage as a blocker.

I guess it depends on the scout. Not many Division II guys last...especially ones that come into the league at age 25(now 26).

Agree. He's clearly a late round or FA flyer.

 

[elguapo07]

ADP in the 20-25 range seems right to me. Maybe he'll get a lot of carries but IMO a low ceiling due to lack of TD's with Tebow likely to come in around the goal line. Last year, McGahee rushed for nearly 1200 yds but only 4 rush TD's.

I'm not sure anyone can every really predict with any clarity or certainty how many TDs a player will score, as IMO that's as random a statistic as they come. McGahee only scored 4 rushing TDs with Tebow at QB. Yet McCoy scored 17 times on the ground playing mostly behind Vick. Same thing with Cam Newton. He had 14 rushing TDs last year. QB Steve Grogan had 12 rushing TD one year . . . and 1 the next.We used to berate Curtis Martin for playing on the Jets, having low upside, and never getting in the endzone. One year he had 365 touches and TWO total touchdowns. The next year he scored 14 times. More recently, DeAngelo Williams scored 20 times . . . and 7 the next.In the main, I would prefer to have a running back that is going to get the ball a lot. Greene had 283 touches last year and his primary threat to touches is now gone (LT with 117 touches). Unless people see better options on the Jets roster that I am missing, I have a hard time seeing how Greene doesn't get the ball 300 times this season. There were only 8 RB last year that had 300 touches. Given that his ADP is in the 20's and his workload may be near RB 10 in terms of touches, I don't see how that is indicative of anything but a decent value proposition . . . and I personally can't stand the Jets (sorry Jet fans). At that point in a fantasy draft, there won't be many players available that are reasonable bets to hit 300 touches. Most remaining backs will be job share running backs that will have to share the workload.

I wonder if Ganaway has a shot at being the Jets short-yardage/goal-line back.

 

[Crazy Tony]

Steve Smith STL- A full year of recovery from his microfracture surgery, nobody thinks Quick is ready yet but he'll still get plugged in and opposing teams will probably treat him as the #1 WR. Smith should be the best route runner, posession guy on the team and Bradford seems to lock on to reliable WR's (Amendola, Clayton, Lloyd, etc). He was a top 15-20 ppr guy in 2009 before Eli was the Eli we saw emerge last year (this coming from a Giants fan). He had 107/1220/7 that year. Obviously he won't come close to that but I could see him having a nice year (Im not a projections guy so I woun't speculate on numbers). Could be had a WR5/6 maybe 7 price and could wind up as a WR3/4.

I agree: STEVE SMITH STL for same reasons. Maybe because I traded Britt and Lynch for him and a 1st in 2009 before Britt went off and Lynch as traded.

Another Smith

ALEX SMITH QB SF. Do I think he'll be Top 10? No. But this is a #1 overall player in 2005 right? In 7 years this will be one of the first times he'll have the same OC/coach and be healthy. (knock on wood). He's surrounded by talented and capable players. Team is very strong and balanced.

VernonDavis/Crabtree/Moss/Manningham/AJJenkins/GinnJR/Owusu/LaMichaelJames.

***Insider 2nd hand information: Prior to 2011 season I was debating dropping Smith but I did not for two reasons: I couldn't logically drop a starting QB in our 2 QB league. Brett Elliot said not to drop Smith. Who's that? Smiths old college teammate who I emailed in desperation prior to 2011 season on FB. Brett was the UTAH starter who broke his wrist prior to smith winning 11games in a row. Why'd I email him? He's the only one I knew but I think Elliott is one of the best college QBs ever. True D3 competition isn't BCS competition but neither were his teammates by that argument.

Career Passing:

567 completions

833 attempts

8,614 yards

20 interceptions

110 touchdown passes.

23-1 Wins/Losses as a starter: 13-0 2004, 10-1 2005. Won D3 National Title in 2004. Semi's 2005)

Reference: http://www.linfield.edu/sports/records/fb/career.htm

These individual stats are incredible and worth a look. Video-game like but in real life.

If you're football junkie you might like to know about Linfield College. Great football tradition. Last losing season was in 1955. http://www.linfield.edu/sports/records/fb/winningseasons.htm

I bring this up because people think small schools don't have the same competition. I'll tell you it's competitive. Yes there's a bigger jump to the NFL but a few people do it. I think if the talent is there the work ethic is there too. These guys have to go to class, they don't get scholarships they're playing because they love football. Turning some high school varsity starters into National champs. It's not easy. It's why I had no problems drafting Garcon in the rookie draft a few years ago...true I packaged and traded him for Harvin/Gates/Burleson I still like D3 guys.

All this....is to say that I trust Elliott's opinion. He's a winner and indicated that we haven't seen what Smith is capable of doing in the NFL yet...prior to 2011 season. I think last year Alex Smith turned the corner. Got consistent and safe and showed flashes of what he can do. This year I think we'll see continued growth. People mock Smith because Harbaugh said they weren't interested in Manning and Smith has always been their guy. But a year ago we counted out Smith and a year ago we were mocking ELI for claiming to be an elite top 5 QB. Then he went out and proved it, did awesome and won a superbowl.

Other Sleeper guys

DONNIE AVERY is off the radar. I see few comments and info on him. I like that because I will drafting Luck 1.2. Wayne is old, TYHilton no guarantee Collie not on my roster and AVERY is a F/A.

2 years ago I was big on Decker. Last year even more so. I'd say he's the sleeper everyone woke up to when Manning joined the team. But all of this was based on an article i read called "SLIPPING THROUGH THE CRACKS" or something on FBGs.com It was common traits of players that have slipped through the cracks. Research it, it's a great read.

Don Brown is probably a good'n too.

Vereen might be also

ONE thing that comes to mind besides my ADHD meds wearing off..is the situations in which a Sleeper pick emerges.

CLE RB named Hillis a few years ago. I owned Harrison, I drafted Hardesty. But some white dude that played FB was the shining star that year.

In DENV a few years ago...It was thought J. Gaffney was the pre-season sleeper in DEN while rookie DemThomas was still raw and Eddie Royal not the same guy especially after Marshall left. Turns out the good player was none of them...it was Brandon Lloyd.

Transition that into Pre-2011 last year. Cluster of which STL WR you wanted to own. Amendola/Avery/MClayton/Salas/Kenricks? Turns out NO it was Brandon Lloyd again when got traded. It was NOT Mike SIMS WALKER.

I think Miles Austin came out of a similar situation. He was under the radar and then busted out on a roster of talented players.

I just hope everyone gets the Sleeper they want and they're right about it. W/That I'm going to bed and if you read this much. Thanks and I'm sorry for so many random little details. ADHD is a ##### when your pills wear off but if you take the pills to focus you won't get to bed for a day or two.

 

[Bankerguy]

Wow....I came here in this thread to highlight Andre Holmes. I guess I am late and a dollar short.

He is my pick for the WR3 spot in Dallas.

 

[squistion]

Wow....I came here in this thread to highlight Andre Holmes. I guess I am late and a dollar short.He is my pick for the WR3 spot in Dallas.

Doesn't hurt to repeat a good thing twice. And there is this item from the 6-4 ESPN NFC East Blog re Cowboys WRs:http://espn.go.com/blog/nfceast

Keep an eye on: Holmes. He seems to be a favorite of Jerry Jones' when Jones speaks publicly about the No. 3 wide receiver situation. He was a scout teamer last year and was an undrafted player out of college, but Jones has a soft spot for those and so, likely, does Romo, who was undrafted himself. Again, if a guy like Holmes can make an impression on special teams, he could put himself in position to get more of an opportunity to show what he can do in the offense. And opportunity may be the only thing one of these guys needs to break through and offer more than is expected of them. If no one does, the Cowboys likely just lean harder on tight end Jason Witten as a No. 3 receiver -- something that would be even easier to do if Austin and Bryant play to the top of their abilities.

 

[wiscstlatlmia]

Mike

Goodson

 

[ConnSKINS26]

Randall Cobb, from what I've seen.

 

[Pastor]

People are sleeping on Antonio Brown. The Steelers will throw a lot with now running game. Ward had 65 targets, those will be spread out. If Brown had 20 more targets last year and kept the same production rate, he went from WR 22 to top 12. That is with 2 Td's. Those have to come up with 75-80 catches. Just my 2 cents.

 

[BuckeyeChaos]

I'm going to say Heyward-Bey. Everyone is pimping D Moore but DHB nearly had 1000yds and really clicked with Palmer. Both guys could be 1000yd

receivers but you can get DHB much later.

 

[DerekR]

Titus Young

 

[wiscstlatlmia]

I'm going to say Heyward-Bey. Everyone is pimping D Moore but DHB nearly had 1000yds and really clicked with Palmer. Both guys could be 1000yd receivers but you can get DHB much later.

 

[Vector]

I'll have to throw Ryan Williams, RB - Arizona into the ring.

Missed all of last year with injury so no one has really seen him in the NFL. Kid has talent and is invisible right now. Should get plenty of chances this year and could easily surpass Beanie in AZ.

 

[mr roboto]

I'll have to throw Ryan Williams, RB - Arizona into the ring.Missed all of last year with injury so no one has really seen him in the NFL. Kid has talent and is invisible right now. Should get plenty of chances this year and could easily surpass Beanie in AZ.

Where's he going in redraft? Seems like a great RB4 with upside in late rounds.

 

[zamboni]

A guy I like this year is Greg Little.

Looks like he's committed himself to losing weight (no more cupcakes) in the offseason; a new QB in Weeden that should get the ball to him in the open field better than McCoy could; a high quality RB in Richardson that should help the offense overall move the chains; and most importantly, virtually no real competition at WR (Mo Mass is terrible) - really only Evan Moore and an aging Ben Watson to draw looks.

 

[Grahamburn]

I'll have to throw Ryan Williams, RB - Arizona into the ring.

Missed all of last year with injury so no one has really seen him in the NFL. Kid has talent and is invisible right now. Should get plenty of chances this year and could easily surpass Beanie in AZ.

Williams' kneecap was torn off. I don't think there's anything easy about that. The only way he's surpassing Wells will be due to an injury. They'll split carries at best. The Cardinals coaches gained a lot of trust in Beanie this past season.Oh, people are sleeping on Beanie Wells, as usual.

 

[Crippler]

I'll have to throw Ryan Williams, RB - Arizona into the ring.

Missed all of last year with injury so no one has really seen him in the NFL. Kid has talent and is invisible right now. Should get plenty of chances this year and could easily surpass Beanie in AZ.

Williams' kneecap was torn off. I don't think there's anything easy about that. The only way he's surpassing Wells will be due to an injury. They'll split carries at best. The Cardinals coaches gained a lot of trust in Beanie this past season.Oh, people are sleeping on Beanie Wells, as usual.

This was the one I was just coming in to do. He is ranked very low in the FBG rankings by staff and I feel very undervalued. He is only 23 years old still.

 

[Matt Bitonti]

everyone is sleeping on... Chaz Schliens.

This is a player who showed a ton of potential in Oakland but never stayed healthy and had a lot of bad QBs throwing him the ball. In New York, he is competing with Stephen Hill a 2nd round draft pick out of Georgia Tech, who doesn't yet know how to run routes. I'm not saying he's awesome or anything but this guy doesn't get drafted in 200+ pick drafts. I think he will outperform that ADP and be good for 35 or so receptions, maybe 5+ TD. Holmes will take the other team's best CB and Schiliens will be in the Plexico Burress role on the other side. Again Hill is a great athlete but I question how ready he will be to contribute. He basically can run jump ball fades in the end zone and fly routes at this point. Everything else is a huge work in progress.

 

[Matt Bitonti]

another player everyone sleeping on is Leonard Hankerson. He's coming off a hip injury but I could see this player finding chemistry with RG3 and he could be very productive. Garcon WR1, Hankerson WR2 on that team. How much can Santana Moss have left?

 

[Pots]

A guy I like this year is Greg Little.Looks like he's committed himself to losing weight (no more cupcakes) in the offseason; a new QB in Weeden that should get the ball to him in the open field better than McCoy could; a high quality RB in Richardson that should help the offense overall move the chains; and most importantly, virtually no real competition at WR (Mo Mass is terrible) - really only Evan Moore and an aging Ben Watson to draw looks.

Did you watch him play last year? I did.

 

[zamboni]

A guy I like this year is Greg Little.Looks like he's committed himself to losing weight (no more cupcakes) in the offseason; a new QB in Weeden that should get the ball to him in the open field better than McCoy could; a high quality RB in Richardson that should help the offense overall move the chains; and most importantly, virtually no real competition at WR (Mo Mass is terrible) - really only Evan Moore and an aging Ben Watson to draw looks.

Did you watch him play last year? I did.

Yup - major case of the dropsies, but he's not the first guy to have that ailment. He also didn't play for a year.Stats weren't too bad for a raw rookie on an anemic offense. Not saying he's the second coming or anything, but if the team didn't think highly of him, they would have brought in a clear #1 WR either in FA or the draft. There were certainly options out there.

 

[zamboni]

everyone is sleeping on... Chaz Schliens. This is a player who showed a ton of potential in Oakland but never stayed healthy and had a lot of bad QBs throwing him the ball. In New York, he is competing with Stephen Hill a 2nd round draft pick out of Georgia Tech, who doesn't yet know how to run routes. I'm not saying he's awesome or anything but this guy doesn't get drafted in 200+ pick drafts. I think he will outperform that ADP and be good for 35 or so receptions, maybe 5+ TD. Holmes will take the other team's best CB and Schiliens will be in the Plexico Burress role on the other side. Again Hill is a great athlete but I question how ready he will be to contribute. He basically can run jump ball fades in the end zone and fly routes at this point. Everything else is a huge work in progress.

Come on, not again with this guy.

 

[jurb26]

A guy I like this year is Greg Little.Looks like he's committed himself to losing weight (no more cupcakes) in the offseason; a new QB in Weeden that should get the ball to him in the open field better than McCoy could; a high quality RB in Richardson that should help the offense overall move the chains; and most importantly, virtually no real competition at WR (Mo Mass is terrible) - really only Evan Moore and an aging Ben Watson to draw looks.

Did you watch him play last year? I did.

Yup - major case of the dropsies, but he's not the first guy to have that ailment. He also didn't play for a year.Stats weren't too bad for a raw rookie on an anemic offense. Not saying he's the second coming or anything, but if the team didn't think highly of him, they would have brought in a clear #1 WR either in FA or the draft. There were certainly options out there.

Ochocinco is available.

 

[zamboni]

A guy I like this year is Greg Little.Looks like he's committed himself to losing weight (no more cupcakes) in the offseason; a new QB in Weeden that should get the ball to him in the open field better than McCoy could; a high quality RB in Richardson that should help the offense overall move the chains; and most importantly, virtually no real competition at WR (Mo Mass is terrible) - really only Evan Moore and an aging Ben Watson to draw looks.

Did you watch him play last year? I did.

Yup - major case of the dropsies, but he's not the first guy to have that ailment. He also didn't play for a year.Stats weren't too bad for a raw rookie on an anemic offense. Not saying he's the second coming or anything, but if the team didn't think highly of him, they would have brought in a clear #1 WR either in FA or the draft. There were certainly options out there.

Ochocinco is available.

Wouldn't surprise me at all to see Ocho end up there considering what they have. But if he had problems producing on the Pats with Brady, you know he's done.

 

[wiscstlatlmia]

From the mocks I've done so far.... The disrespect to Darrius Heyward Bey is borderline criminal

 

[az_prof]

ADP in the 20-25 range seems right to me. Maybe he'll get a lot of carries but IMO a low ceiling due to lack of TD's with Tebow likely to come in around the goal line. Last year, McGahee rushed for nearly 1200 yds but only 4 rush TD's.

I'm not sure anyone can every really predict with any clarity or certainty how many TDs a player will score, as IMO that's as random a statistic as they come. McGahee only scored 4 rushing TDs with Tebow at QB. Yet McCoy scored 17 times on the ground playing mostly behind Vick. Same thing with Cam Newton. He had 14 rushing TDs last year. QB Steve Grogan had 12 rushing TD one year . . . and 1 the next.We used to berate Curtis Martin for playing on the Jets, having low upside, and never getting in the endzone. One year he had 365 touches and TWO total touchdowns. The next year he scored 14 times. More recently, DeAngelo Williams scored 20 times . . . and 7 the next.In the main, I would prefer to have a running back that is going to get the ball a lot. Greene had 283 touches last year and his primary threat to touches is now gone (LT with 117 touches). Unless people see better options on the Jets roster that I am missing, I have a hard time seeing how Greene doesn't get the ball 300 times this season. There were only 8 RB last year that had 300 touches. Given that his ADP is in the 20's and his workload may be near RB 10 in terms of touches, I don't see how that is indicative of anything but a decent value proposition . . . and I personally can't stand the Jets (sorry Jet fans). At that point in a fantasy draft, there won't be many players available that are reasonable bets to hit 300 touches. Most remaining backs will be job share running backs that will have to share the workload.

Great write up. I especially agree with the point about TDs being the most variable stat and hard to predict. However, i do have questions about Greene because I am not convinced about his talent. He just seems so below average! It IS true that there doesn't appear to be a lot of competition though. Joe McNight reportedly spent the off season eating McDonalds--for a guy who doesn't appear to be a hard worker in the first place, that is a bad sign. But I am not convinced yet that Bilal Powell can't seize the job. Many people were high on his talent coming out of college and he was buried on the depth chart as a rookie. People say he sucked in his rookie season but that isn't really accurate--he had virtually no chance to show anything. 13 carries is not enough data points to make a meaningful judgement. I will be watching Powell in preseason to see if he has shown improvement and if he starts to get RB2 chances. If he does well, I could see him cutting into Greene's touches.

 

[az_prof]

A guy I like this year is Greg Little.Looks like he's committed himself to losing weight (no more cupcakes) in the offseason; a new QB in Weeden that should get the ball to him in the open field better than McCoy could; a high quality RB in Richardson that should help the offense overall move the chains; and most importantly, virtually no real competition at WR (Mo Mass is terrible) - really only Evan Moore and an aging Ben Watson to draw looks.

What makes you think Weeden will be any better than McCoy? The fact that Weeden will be a rookie seems to me a negative and the QB situation could easily regress in 2012 for the Browns. Having a good RB may keep some drives going longer, but it will also mean a greater share of runs than receptions. Not sure that having a bell weather RB is all that great for the passing game. How many great WR seasons have the Vikings had with ADP as the bell weather? Rice had one great season and Harvin has been ok but not great. These seems like poor arguments for Little. If he has worked harder in the off season that might help, but the rest of this argument seems weak.

 

[zamboni]

A guy I like this year is Greg Little.Looks like he's committed himself to losing weight (no more cupcakes) in the offseason; a new QB in Weeden that should get the ball to him in the open field better than McCoy could; a high quality RB in Richardson that should help the offense overall move the chains; and most importantly, virtually no real competition at WR (Mo Mass is terrible) - really only Evan Moore and an aging Ben Watson to draw looks.

What makes you think Weeden will be any better than McCoy? The fact that Weeden will be a rookie seems to me a negative and the QB situation could easily regress in 2012 for the Browns. Having a good RB may keep some drives going longer, but it will also mean a greater share of runs than receptions. Not sure that having a bell weather RB is all that great for the passing game. How many great WR seasons have the Vikings had with ADP as the bell weather? Rice had one great season and Harvin has been ok but not great. These seems like poor arguments for Little. If he has worked harder in the off season that might help, but the rest of this argument seems weak.

Yes, there is no way to know that Weeden will be better than McCoy, but at least they can possibly stretch the field a bit more with his arm and Richardson presumably stacking the line of scrimmage. Seemed like with McCoy in there, the whole offensive system went about 10 yards out.Again, it is a huge wildcard, but I think Little's chances are greater with Weeden in there. Not sure rookie is a huge factor, as we've seen more and more rookie QBs come in and play well.

 

[cstu]

A guy I like this year is Greg Little.Looks like he's committed himself to losing weight (no more cupcakes) in the offseason; a new QB in Weeden that should get the ball to him in the open field better than McCoy could; a high quality RB in Richardson that should help the offense overall move the chains; and most importantly, virtually no real competition at WR (Mo Mass is terrible) - really only Evan Moore and an aging Ben Watson to draw looks.

What makes you think Weeden will be any better than McCoy? The fact that Weeden will be a rookie seems to me a negative and the QB situation could easily regress in 2012 for the Browns. Having a good RB may keep some drives going longer, but it will also mean a greater share of runs than receptions. Not sure that having a bell weather RB is all that great for the passing game. How many great WR seasons have the Vikings had with ADP as the bell weather? Rice had one great season and Harvin has been ok but not great. These seems like poor arguments for Little. If he has worked harder in the off season that might help, but the rest of this argument seems weak.

I'll go out on a limb and say that Weeden from day one will be better than any QB the Vikings put on the field between Culpepper and Favre. The one thing no one can dispute is his arm and that alone will result in better numbers for Little. His upside is limited to around 1000 yards but he's a steal in the 9th/10th round.

 

[god_shamgod]

Meachem. 1.75 fantasy points (no ppr) per career target. If he doubles his career high in targets (64), he'll score 200 plus points (again, standard) and be an absolute steal anywhere close to current ADP.

The reason Meachem's targets are low and points per target are high is because he only runs deep routes, which just so happens to be the same type of routes San Diego will have him run.

That's the common response I see when Meachem comes up but do you seriously think San Diego signed him to be their 5th option in the passing game? VJAX had 115 targets last year, Meachem is "replacing" him and has never topped 64 targets. Something has to give, either he regresses terribly or explodes with the increased opportunity, I'm betting the former.

I think they signed him to come in and run deep routes to take the top off the defense.Do you expect Meachem to equal Vincent Jackson's target numbers? It's more logical to me that Floyd, Brown, and Gates' targets increase at the expense of the new deep threat. Jackson had 101, 107, and 114 targets with his 3 full years in the San Diego offense respectively. I don't see Meachem's targets doubling. It's possible he steps right in and duplicates Vincent Jackson's looks, but it's not likely. He's an interesting sleeper. A career 16.1 ypc receiver with a catch percentage of 63%. 100 targets would put him at 1,018 yards. Keep in mind though, Jackson's career catch percentage in this particular role is 55.5%.

It seems much more likely that his 2012 targets look like Jackson's in SD than his own in NO. SD isn't adopting the NO offense. Meachem is entering the SD offense.ETA: Over the last 3 years, VJax has had 245 targets in 35 games for 7 targets per game. Floyd filled that role for 10 games when VJax was out and had 76 targets for 7.6 targets per game. Crayton filled the role for 3 games when both VJax and FLoyd were out and had 22 targets or 7.3 targets per game. If Floyd and Crayton can fill the role and receive the same number of targets as VJax, what makes you think Meachem cannot?

Couple those target stats with Meachem's already WR1 equivalent numbers in games Colston missed and/or Meach saw 8+ targets and it screams break out performance to me. Even if all VJax did was run deep (he didn't), and Meach just got those looks, no reason to think the targets would diminish, since the fluff pieces out of SD are talking up his top level speed from the get go, rather than build up speed like Jackson has. Health permitting, I think he'll be a WR1 you can grab in round 5-8, depending on when you draft.

after watching a lot of meachem last year i will go out on a big fat limb with no chance of breaking and say he will be terrible again. he has no explosiveness, route running ability, intensity or football skill. he can catch a post pattern thrown perfectly but thats about it.

 

[rizzler]

Im sleeping on an extremely comfortable King Size Sealy Posturepedic.

You haven't slept, until you've slept on one this these biatches.

 

[jacobo_moses]

I think everyone is undervaluing Kyle Williams 49ers. I mean yeah he screwed up in the NFC CHamp game filling in on Punt Returns (Lets not forget the Giants were targeting him anyway they could because he had just had some concussions a week or so before.)

But according to this article I will post the link, the Beat writer for one of the SF Papers says Kyle Williams has looked the best of the WR's on the 49ers roster so far. So don't count him out yet.

http://sfbay.ca/2012/06/07/49ers-wideouts-locked-in-starting-battle/

 

[finito]

I think everyone is undervaluing Kyle Williams 49ers. I mean yeah he screwed up in the NFC CHamp game filling in on Punt Returns (Lets not forget the Giants were targeting him anyway they could because he had just had some concussions a week or so before.)But according to this article I will post the link, the Beat writer for one of the SF Papers says Kyle Williams has looked the best of the WR's on the 49ers roster so far. So don't count him out yet. http://sfbay.ca/2012/06/07/49ers-wideouts-locked-in-starting-battle/

Boy that's tough, I mean he'd have to basically beat out Randy Moss, Mario Manningham, AJ Jenkins, and eat into Crabtree or Vernon's catches to be remotely valuable in fantasy. I just don't see it barring injurie(s).

 

[ldizzle]

I'll throw a few out there, some already mentioned.

WR

Antonio Brown i feel is going to be a solid #2 wr in that offense. in 2011 he had 1108 yds 69rec a whopping 124 tgts and 2 td's. those are solid numbers for a wr bieng taken around #27wr. Also, I dont think wallace will hold out, but it is a possibility so he could even be the wr1 for the steelers depending on how that plays out, which would make...

Emmanuel Sanders a good play as well who is going very late.

RB

Shonn Greene has a lot of haters, because he has been kind of mediocre for where he was being drafted the last 2 years. I think the sheer volume of the workload should provide decent rb2/flex numbers. I dont like the idea of tebow stealing td's but and he wont get many receptions, but still a decent value play for where he is going.

Jahvid Best is the ultimate risk/reward i think in this years draft. Who knows how things are going to shake out in Detroit, but it may be worth it. He can be drafted around #30rb. the guy put up rb1 numbers when healthy and is in an explosive offense. I think even in a timeshare he would produce rb2 numbers. but then again one more concussion ends his career.

 

[cr8f]

Jonathan Baldwin is being drafted too low.

A few of mine.

Result Of 187 Drafts

# Player Avg. Pick Min. Pick Max. Pick # Drafts Selected In

1. Johnson, Calvin DET WR 4.31 1 25 189

2. Fitzgerald, Larry ARI WR 14.26 6 51 188

3. Green, A.J. CIN WR 17.66 3 60 188

4. Nicks, Hakeem NYG WR 19.57 5 47 190

5. Johnson, Andre HOU WR 23.28 5 69 189

6. Jones, Julio ATL WR 24.10 4 66 188

7. Welker, Wes NEP WR 26.22 7 50 188

8. Jennings, Greg GBP WR 27.44 12 62 188

9. White, Roddy ATL WR 27.91 9 60 190

10. Cruz, Victor NYG WR 29.37 8 52 188

11. Marshall, Brandon CHI WR 32.87 10 60 190

12. Wallace, Mike PIT WR 32.96 12 71 189

13. Bryant, Dez DAL WR 33.83 14 95 189

14. Nelson, Jordy GBP WR 36.82 18 106 188

15. Harvin, Percy MIN WR 40.01 18 110 189

16. Britt, Kenny TEN WR 41.43 15 117 186

17. Thomas, Demaryius DEN WR 43.46 7 84 187

18. Austin, Miles DAL WR 47.54 15 114 188

19. Jackson, Vincent TBB WR 48.88 11 129 188

20. Colston, Marques NOS WR 49.13 17 84 187

21. Bowe, Dwayne KCC WR 50.04 30 144 186

22. Maclin, Jeremy PHI WR 50.95 26 135 186

23. Smith, Steve CAR WR 55.22 21 116 187

24. Johnson, Steve BUF WR 55.73 19 118 187

25. Brown, Antonio PIT WR 57.83 34 142 185

26. Jackson, DeSean PHI WR 62.01 2 153 187

27. Smith, Torrey BAL WR 72.62 41 135 184

28. Lloyd, Brandon NEP WR 74.13 33 175 184

29. Decker, Eric DEN WR 74.68 39 173 183

30. Blackmon, Justin JAC WR 78.73 40 246 169

31. Moore, Denarius OAK WR 84.29 54 201 184

32. Garcon, Pierre WAS WR 85.92 46 184 185

33. Wayne, Reggie IND WR 95.80 27 248 183

34. Crabtree, Michael SFO WR 97.24 54 232 180

35. Meachem, Robert SDC WR 99.71 57 230 181

36. Rice, Sidney SEA WR 101.31 62 289 178

37. Floyd, Michael ARI WR 102.74 31 247 165

38. Little, Greg CLE WR 103.88 47 229 181

39. Williams, Mike TBB WR 105.68 58 242 176

40. Holmes, Santonio NYJ WR 109.05 25 227 179

41. Young, Titus DET WR 113.49 66 288 176

42. Heyward-Bey, Darrius OAK WR 121.39 68 330 175

43. Boldin, Anquan BAL WR 130.34 21 273 173

44. Wright, Kendall TEN WR 130.71 69 252 157

45. Quick, Brian STL WR 130.86 56 251 137

46. Robinson, Laurent JAC WR 137.89 54 373 168

47. Floyd, Malcom SDC WR 139.25 70 374 173

48. Moore, Lance NOS WR 141.73 78 322 170

49. Cobb, Randall GBP WR 143.32 78 377 157

50. Jeffery, Alshon CHI WR 145.78 76 279 140

51. Manningham, Mario SFO WR 146.82 49 303 161

52. Hill, Stephen NYJ WR 147.53 62 266 131

53. Brown, Vincent SDC WR 148.35 88 395 158

54. Collie, Austin IND WR 148.40 77 396 162

55. Randle, Reuben NYG WR 150.34 33 326 132

56. Baldwin, Jon KCC WR 154.70 73 317 146

57. Moss, Randy SFO WR 161.40 16 356 162

58. Hankerson, Leonard WAS WR 163.99 86 405 132

59. Washington, Nate TEN WR 164.94 58 342 156

60. Baldwin, Doug SEA WR 168.96 81 367 145

61. Sanu, Mohamed CIN WR 170.06 44 346 119

62. Amendola, Danny STL WR 175.48 94 357 139

63. LaFell, Brandon CAR WR 177.55 105 399 137

64. Sanders, Emmanuel PIT WR 185.04 71 438 122

65. Broyles, Ryan DET WR 188.01 107 415 87

66. Jenkins, A.J. SFO WR 191.56 127 366 81

67. Moss, Santana WAS WR 195.10 63 397 125

68. Bess, Davone MIA WR 195.59 112 421 115

69. Ford, Jacoby OAK WR 196.10 100 417 118

70. Nelson, David BUF WR 208.50 113 403 102

71. Givens, Chris STL WR 212.13 100 409 76

72. Jones, Marvin CIN WR 215.48 134 419 81

73. Childs, Greg MIN WR 216.24 124 383 66

74. Toon, Nick NOS WR 217.70 150 455 79

75. Simpson, Jerome MIN WR 221.35 128 508 95

76. Tate, Golden SEA WR 227.58 124 460 89

77. Royal, Eddie SDC WR 229.12 86 464 75

78. Burleson, Nate DET WR 230.55 113 538 80

79. Jones, James GBP WR 235.18 127 461 88

80. Williams, Damian TEN WR 238.75 122 480 69

81. Shipley, Jordan CIN WR 240.72 87 438 68

82. Posey, DeVier HOU WR 241.65 158 505 57

83. Burress, Plaxico FA WR 245.26 89 516 39

84. Jean, Lestar HOU WR 246.22 135 548 36

85. Roberts, Andre ARI WR 248.38 146 523 53

 

[finito]

Meachem. 1.75 fantasy points (no ppr) per career target. If he doubles his career high in targets (64), he'll score 200 plus points (again, standard) and be an absolute steal anywhere close to current ADP.

The reason Meachem's targets are low and points per target are high is because he only runs deep routes, which just so happens to be the same type of routes San Diego will have him run.

That's the common response I see when Meachem comes up but do you seriously think San Diego signed him to be their 5th option in the passing game? VJAX had 115 targets last year, Meachem is "replacing" him and has never topped 64 targets. Something has to give, either he regresses terribly or explodes with the increased opportunity, I'm betting the former.

I think they signed him to come in and run deep routes to take the top off the defense.Do you expect Meachem to equal Vincent Jackson's target numbers? It's more logical to me that Floyd, Brown, and Gates' targets increase at the expense of the new deep threat. Jackson had 101, 107, and 114 targets with his 3 full years in the San Diego offense respectively. I don't see Meachem's targets doubling. It's possible he steps right in and duplicates Vincent Jackson's looks, but it's not likely. He's an interesting sleeper. A career 16.1 ypc receiver with a catch percentage of 63%. 100 targets would put him at 1,018 yards. Keep in mind though, Jackson's career catch percentage in this particular role is 55.5%.

It seems much more likely that his 2012 targets look like Jackson's in SD than his own in NO. SD isn't adopting the NO offense. Meachem is entering the SD offense.ETA: Over the last 3 years, VJax has had 245 targets in 35 games for 7 targets per game. Floyd filled that role for 10 games when VJax was out and had 76 targets for 7.6 targets per game. Crayton filled the role for 3 games when both VJax and FLoyd were out and had 22 targets or 7.3 targets per game. If Floyd and Crayton can fill the role and receive the same number of targets as VJax, what makes you think Meachem cannot?

Couple those target stats with Meachem's already WR1 equivalent numbers in games Colston missed and/or Meach saw 8+ targets and it screams break out performance to me. Even if all VJax did was run deep (he didn't), and Meach just got those looks, no reason to think the targets would diminish, since the fluff pieces out of SD are talking up his top level speed from the get go, rather than build up speed like Jackson has. Health permitting, I think he'll be a WR1 you can grab in round 5-8, depending on when you draft.

after watching a lot of meachem last year i will go out on a big fat limb with no chance of breaking and say he will be terrible again. he has no explosiveness, route running ability, intensity or football skill. he can catch a post pattern thrown perfectly but thats about it.

I think Malcom Floyd will end up with the best WR numbers this year. Guy is brittle as hell but produces nicely when he's healthy.

 

[hedzookeeper]

Malcolm Floyd. Everyone talks about Meachem and Brown but give me the guy Rivers is familiar with now that VJax is gone. This assumes Floyd stays healthy.

+1

 

[az_prof]

Meachem. 1.75 fantasy points (no ppr) per career target. If he doubles his career high in targets (64), he'll score 200 plus points (again, standard) and be an absolute steal anywhere close to current ADP.

The reason Meachem's targets are low and points per target are high is because he only runs deep routes, which just so happens to be the same type of routes San Diego will have him run.

That's the common response I see when Meachem comes up but do you seriously think San Diego signed him to be their 5th option in the passing game? VJAX had 115 targets last year, Meachem is "replacing" him and has never topped 64 targets. Something has to give, either he regresses terribly or explodes with the increased opportunity, I'm betting the former.

I think they signed him to come in and run deep routes to take the top off the defense.Do you expect Meachem to equal Vincent Jackson's target numbers? It's more logical to me that Floyd, Brown, and Gates' targets increase at the expense of the new deep threat.

Jackson had 101, 107, and 114 targets with his 3 full years in the San Diego offense respectively. I don't see Meachem's targets doubling. It's possible he steps right in and duplicates Vincent Jackson's looks, but it's not likely. He's an interesting sleeper. A career 16.1 ypc receiver with a catch percentage of 63%. 100 targets would put him at 1,018 yards. Keep in mind though, Jackson's career catch percentage in this particular role is 55.5%.

It seems much more likely that his 2012 targets look like Jackson's in SD than his own in NO. SD isn't adopting the NO offense. Meachem is entering the SD offense.ETA: Over the last 3 years, VJax has had 245 targets in 35 games for 7 targets per game. Floyd filled that role for 10 games when VJax was out and had 76 targets for 7.6 targets per game. Crayton filled the role for 3 games when both VJax and FLoyd were out and had 22 targets or 7.3 targets per game. If Floyd and Crayton can fill the role and receive the same number of targets as VJax, what makes you think Meachem cannot?

Couple those target stats with Meachem's already WR1 equivalent numbers in games Colston missed and/or Meach saw 8+ targets and it screams break out performance to me. Even if all VJax did was run deep (he didn't), and Meach just got those looks, no reason to think the targets would diminish, since the fluff pieces out of SD are talking up his top level speed from the get go, rather than build up speed like Jackson has. Health permitting, I think he'll be a WR1 you can grab in round 5-8, depending on when you draft.

after watching a lot of meachem last year i will go out on a big fat limb with no chance of breaking and say he will be terrible again. he has no explosiveness, route running ability, intensity or football skill. he can catch a post pattern thrown perfectly but thats about it.

You may be right, but Norv Turner doesn't appear to agree with you."Meachem can get up the field. He's a deep threat, but he's also a more versatile receiver than I thought he'd be when you looked at tape. He can do a lot more things than he did in New Orleans because they didn't need those things from him because they had other guys. But he's an outstanding route running, he's a good 'feel' receiver and he does have outstanding hands."

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/football/nfl/06/07/chargers/index.html

 

[Crazysight]

Who do you think everyone is sleeping on?

My ex-girlfriend.

If they're falling asleep on her she must be doing something wrong.

 

[Crazysight]

This thread is not just about your individual list of sleepers. But rather who you think is that one guy that no one seems to be talking much about. Someone that only your fantasy genius mind looks at and says "BREAKOUT ALERT!" even if the pack mentality hasn't quite caught up with your superior intellect yet.For me that guy is Donald Brown. I like to look for players who have shown clear sign of improvement, development and maturity. Brown has done all of that. I like to look for guys who may not have played much but has shown few but unmistakable flashes of big time play making ability. Check mark on Brown again. Not to toot my own horn too much but I have been on a very very good streak picking these types of guys the last few years. I hit on Ray Rice in 09, Foster in 10, and Wells in '11. I targeted all three of them specifically as must have sleepers and made sure I got them. Take that for what you will but this year that guy is Brown. High end RB2 floor, top 5-8 ceiling, both ppr and standard and very few people are talking about him.Who do you think everyone is sleeping on?

I too agree on Donald Brown. I've seen nothing about the Tennesse QBs (Hasselbeck and Locker) being mentioned in top-10 QB talk for this upcoming season, despite the superior weapons that will be at their disposal. It remains to be see which one wins the starting job for this coming season, but whoever does will be pushed by the other. Jared Cook is a big time break out QB at tight end for the Titans, having a combination of size/athleticism that can be very fairly compared to that of one named Megatron. Likewise Fred Davis did very well last year with Grossman at QB before getting caught with marijuana in his system. Now he'll have RGIII behind center and I expect even better productivity. I think Gates is in store for a huge, possibly career, year too as it appears that he's finally fully over his foot injury, and now that VJ is out of the picture he should clearly be the focal point of San Diego's passing offense. One guy nobody is talking about though that I really like is Marcel Reece. With Michael Bush gone he will almost definitely get the goalline looks in that offense as McFadden has never been used in that role and with his injury history its likely that he's kept out of it. Reece has a superior combination of size and athleticism and has shown the ability to excel at all phases of the game, and if McFadden were to get injured yet again (or if his lis franc injury proved to be a long term ordeal) Reece would be in store for even more work. He was a pro bowl full back last year who gained 413 yards on just 44 touches last season. In a deep league such as mine Reece is definitely worth a stash.