Everyone is sleeping on.... (2 Viewers)

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

Two Points David:

1) Do you not think that the Bears ran the ball out of necessity it as the strength of the team? Matt Forte, better run blocking vs pass blocking, lack of skill at WR, etc

2) Whether it was a personnel issue or scheme issue, Martz had to go. Martz proved more times than not in his career that it was the personnel of Warner/Faulk/Holt/Bruce(all successful outside of Martz scheme) not his scheme...clearly Martz was not as successful without them. Would Martz' scheme be more successful with Marshall/Jeffery/Rodriguez/Bush...probably. But we will never find out. Sometimes a change of scenery will benefit everyone.

A couple of other things that have reasons for optimism:

-Tice is implementing things that were successful for Cutler in Denver

-Alshon Jeffery was the first of all draft picks to sign and skipped a rookie function in LA, to instead be in Chicago to continue training.

1) As I see it, the Bears ran the ball for a variety of reasons that included:- They they were good at it (Top 5-10 rushing offense)

- They were better at run blocking than pass blocking

- They were weaker at the pass

- It kept more potent offenses off the field

- It played into the game condition (ie it made more sense to run than pass)

2) Yes, Martz was not as successful without a bevy of HOFers on the offense. Who wouldn't be?

3) Bringing up that they may be emulating the scheme in Denver is not exactly going to win any points. Other than the one year where Cutler flung the ball around a ton, his numbers in Denver were not great. As we've danced around in about 6 threads now, if the Bears throw the ball 620 times like the Broncos did, I agree Cutler ON VOLUME ALONE becomes a fantasy factor . . . just like Jon Kitna did under Martz in Detroit.

4) Jeffery signing and training means little to me. It's what he does on the field that counts. Since 1990, there have been 751 rookie WR. 46 of them scored 100 fantasy points. I don't have the time, interest, or desire to sift through where they were drafted, but suffice it to say that the huge majority of rookie WRs do not have a profound impact as rookies. Ditto for rookie tight ends. Of the 355 rookie TEs drafted since 1990, 8 scored 75 fantasy points.

5) I ran the numbers. In 12 seasons as a head coach or offensive coordinator, Mike Martz teams averaged 48 sacks allowed per season and a 7.9% sack allowed percentage. In 4 years as a head coach in Minnesota, Tice's teams allowed an average of 48 sacks per season but at a slightly higher rate (8.2%) since those teams did not pass as often as Martz' teams did.

I happen to think they ran the ball because they didn't have good players at the WR position more-so than the other factors.I didn't know Tice's offenses allowed that many sacks, that's a good point. Off of memory(Chicago vs Minny games back in the day) I thought Culpepper held onto the ball often, waiting to throw it deep to Moss...although I could be wrong. Either way that 7% sack percentage is better than the 12% it was in 2010.

The Post-Moss days also include the half season of Culpepper and hardly anyone with a pulse at the skill positions. Yet, they still scored more points than Brad Childress.

I'm not expecting a 1,200 yard season from Jeffery. Perhaps that's our discrepancy here.

My expectations in Cutler for 2012:

-Looking through the numbers, Mike Tice throws the football. Over 510 attempts every season he was a HC, even when Brad Johnson had to start 9 games and they didn't have Randy Moss.

I will go between the numbers a bit and shoot for 540 attempts for Cutler. That's not as high as Tice had in Minnesota or as high as Cutler's first year in Chicago under Ron Turner. Heck Cutler was on pace for over 500 attempts last season.

-62% would be a slight uptick from his stint in Chicago. However, it would go right in line with where he was in Denver. 62%=335 completions

-7.5 Yards per Attempt is Cutler's average the last two years. That would calculate into 4050 yards. 12.6 yard per completion has been his average the last two years in Chicago as well. That would calculate into 4221. Both of those would be without including his upgrade at WR. Mike Tice's 2003/2004 Vikings averaged 8.15 Yards per attempt(7.1 in 2002 Culpeppers first full year starting). At 8.15 X 540= 4,401 yards. Lets not include the upgrade at WR and shoot for a 4,200 yards.

-Touchdowns. Cutler's Touchdown percentage in Chicago is 4.8% X 540= 26 touchdowns. With Marshall 6'4, Jeffery 6'3 this number will increase. Lets only increase it by 4.

-Interceptions. Cutler's Interception percentage in Chicago the last two years is 2.9% X 540 attempts = 16 INT

Cutler 335/540 62% 4,200 yards 30 Touchdowns 16 Interceptions

That would've put him at 7th in the NFL in passing yards, 6th in touchdown passes. Probably good for QB7-9 last year in most formats.

Looking at FBG's projections for Cutler. Why would they have him below his last two year average in Chicago in YPA? All of them are high on his INT % than he had last year in Chicago. All of this is with the knowledge that they traded for Marshall and drafted Jeffery/Rodriguez.

All I did was simply crunch the numbers of Cutler's past history/Tice's past history...and increased his completion percentage back to his Denver days and 4 touchdowns due to the size of the new additions. How is it that hard to see? I'm not increasing his YPA by 1 yard or 40 touchdown passes. Realistic numbers.

Expectations for the rest of Chicago:

Cutler 335/540 62% 4200 yards 30 TD 16 INT 200 rushing 2 TD

Forte 225 carries 4.4 990 yards 4 TD, 50 receptions 524 yards 3 TD

Bush 150 carries 4.2 630 yards 8 TD, 20 receptions 220 yards 1 TD

Marshall 90 receptions 1170 yards 9 TD

Bennett 50 receptions 700 yards 3 TD

Jeffery 55 receptions 726 yards 7 TD

Hester 25 receptions 360 yards 2 TD

Kellen Davis 30 receptions 340 yards 4 TD

Rodriguez 15 receptions 160 yards 1 TD

 

[David Yudkin]

Comparing the early 00s Vikings to current day Bears is a bit apples to oranges . . .

The Vikings played indoors and on turf. That's a lot different than playing outdoors in the cold and potential snow.

They had Randy Moss, which was a HUGE X-factor for everything MIN did offensively.

Although hard to prove, I would say the Vikings had a better blocking OL and TE.

Minnesota consistently had a bottom 5-10 defense in most categories.

All of those led to the Vikings wanting to and having to throw more.

Using Cutler on pace for 500+ attempts last year, his results weren't great even passing that much on a per game basis. Fantasy wise, on a ppg basis he was the 18th ranked QB last year for QB that played in at least 8 games.

I get that people are saying no Martz + Marshall + potentially better rookies + new mind set = big numbers for Cutler. I would argue that just because things change doesn't mean they change for the better (or at a minimum, perhaps they don't change 100% for the better all at once).

As for projecting Cutler to 550 attempts (as some have done in the various Cutler related threads), only 8 QBs last year were able to accomplish that. It's very easy to simply say that all QBs and all teams will do certain things, but the practical reality is that most of the time things don't turn out as expected and few of them will make it.

While many have argued that the receivers messed up on routes, turned the wrong way, dropped passes, etc., who's to say that some of that should have fallen on Cutler? Maybe he threw the ball to the wrong shoulder. Maybe he threw the ball too hard. Maybe the ball got delivered too soon because there was too much upfront pressure and Cutler had to get rid of the football.

Maybe Cutler will have a much better season and maybe these new additions will make a profound impact on his production. But the flip side of that coin is maybe Cutler isn't much more than an average NFL QB to begin with. Up until now, Cutler has not really been a fantasy starter unless he threw the ball A LOT.

Maybe Cutler will improve slightly AND throw the ball a lot. I suppose that is a possible outcome. But as far as I am concerned, there are plenty of reasons to suggest that the Bears won't be a fantasy factor passing the ball. I again would point to Tice not having had to run an offense in 7 years as a negative. What worked for Martz in the past didn't stick in Chicago. Maybe his playbook and playcalling is not a fit for the current game. Similarly, the same thing could happen to Tice. The bottom line is, we just don't know. Other than the addition of Marshall (which should be a decent plus), at this point all we can adequately say is that the Bears made CHANGES . . . it remains to be seen if they made IMPROVEMENTS.

And again to clarify, most years I end up with Cutler and hope he does well. I am not against drafting him . . . I just don't think he will produce to the point that some folks are suggesting he will.

 

[domvin]

In cutlers favor, reunited with jeremy bates, his qb coach in denver

Carry on.....

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

Austin Collie... He will be starting and Reggie Wayne still demands some coverage. He is great in the slot and Luck is a capable QB. Obviously there are the concussion concerns, but you can get Collie for a bag of peanuts.

Throwing between the numbers is an option that looks good especially for young QB's so Collie will get targets because of it.Rotoworld) After Tuesday's practice, Colts coach Chuck Pagano noted that Andrew Luck is "off the charts in terms of football IQ." Analysis: "He hasn't missed a beat," said Pagano after Luck completed 15-of-16 passes during 11-on-11 drills in Tuesday's practice. Added Austin Collie, who was Luck's favorite receiver in practice, "The kid has got it." Beat writer George Bremer confirms that "to the surprise of pretty much nobody," Luck was "impressive."

Just adding to the Luck to Collie buzz.... This is from yesterday...Luck completed 26 of 37 passes against the Colts' defense, getting a rise out of what the team hopes to be future season-ticket holders when he connected on a touchdown pass with wide receiver Austin Collie.

 

[The Hank]

Austin Collie... He will be starting and Reggie Wayne still demands some coverage. He is great in the slot and Luck is a capable QB. Obviously there are the concussion concerns, but you can get Collie for a bag of peanuts.

Throwing between the numbers is an option that looks good especially for young QB's so Collie will get targets because of it.Rotoworld) After Tuesday's practice, Colts coach Chuck Pagano noted that Andrew Luck is "off the charts in terms of football IQ." Analysis: "He hasn't missed a beat," said Pagano after Luck completed 15-of-16 passes during 11-on-11 drills in Tuesday's practice. Added Austin Collie, who was Luck's favorite receiver in practice, "The kid has got it." Beat writer George Bremer confirms that "to the surprise of pretty much nobody," Luck was "impressive."

Just adding to the Luck to Collie buzz.... This is from yesterday...Luck completed 26 of 37 passes against the Colts' defense, getting a rise out of what the team hopes to be future season-ticket holders when he connected on a touchdown pass with wide receiver Austin Collie.

Interesting...

 

[Dope]

No QB in the history of Chicago Bears football has ever thrown for over 4000 yards in a season.

And while Jay Cutler has 2 of the top 3 seasons...he isn't even #1. Erik Kramer is.

What does this mean? I don't know but we've had a passing revolution over the last 25 years and a Chicago QB has never been listed in that time as elite. I just don't see how that changes now.

 

[SWC]

matresses and blankets just kidding brohans seriously i thnik it is is randall the touchdown robber cobber that guy is going to be burning blazing towards the endzone like it is a blue beacon and there is a blue light special in there and he is a k mart shopper from back in the day tkae that to the bank brohankmart shoppers

 

[ConnSKINS26]

No QB in the history of Chicago Bears football has ever thrown for over 4000 yards in a season.And while Jay Cutler has 2 of the top 3 seasons...he isn't even #1. Erik Kramer is.What does this mean? I don't know but we've had a passing revolution over the last 25 years and a Chicago QB has never been listed in that time as elite. I just don't see how that changes now.

I never understand posts like this. What the hell does the Bears' long history of QB ineptness have to do with Cutler in the here and now?

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

No QB in the history of Chicago Bears football has ever thrown for over 4000 yards in a season.And while Jay Cutler has 2 of the top 3 seasons...he isn't even #1. Erik Kramer is.What does this mean? I don't know but we've had a passing revolution over the last 25 years and a Chicago QB has never been listed in that time as elite. I just don't see how that changes now.

I never understand posts like this. What the hell does the Bears' long history of QB ineptness have to do with Cutler in the here and now?

Exactly, plus Chicago has had a horrible string of bad QB play and lately WR play. It's not like we've had 3 straight good to great QBs like Green Bay.

 

[PugMac]

I'll have to throw Ryan Williams, RB - Arizona into the ring.

Missed all of last year with injury so no one has really seen him in the NFL. Kid has talent and is invisible right now. Should get plenty of chances this year and could easily surpass Beanie in AZ.

Williams' kneecap was torn off. I don't think there's anything easy about that. The only way he's surpassing Wells will be due to an injury. They'll split carries at best. The Cardinals coaches gained a lot of trust in Beanie this past season.Oh, people are sleeping on Beanie Wells, as usual.

The down side here, is they have the worst OL in the league. So he has a few things to overcome to have a great year and I am seeing his ADP about 121, so that seems about right to me. Still on my radar now, thanks

 

[PugMac]

I'll repeat my mention of Marcel Reece, particularly for deep leagues. If McFadden should actually stay healthy all year (for a change) he would still have a value equal to or better than that of Michael Bush a couple years ago. If McFadden can't stay healthy or still suffers from his previous lis franc injury than Reece will be a certifiable stud for 2012.

Interesting. I've never heard of him and all I've heard is Goodson being the one to grab as the handcuff. Should it be Reece? Just looked him up and he has only had 47 carries the last 2 years and none his first 2 years.

 

[mr roboto]

I'll repeat my mention of Marcel Reece, particularly for deep leagues. If McFadden should actually stay healthy all year (for a change) he would still have a value equal to or better than that of Michael Bush a couple years ago. If McFadden can't stay healthy or still suffers from his previous lis franc injury than Reece will be a certifiable stud for 2012.

Interesting. I've never heard of him and all I've heard is Goodson being the one to grab as the handcuff. Should it be Reece? Just looked him up and he has only had 47 carries the last 2 years and none his first 2 years.

IIRC he's something like a TE/RB/FB. Big dude who can catch. He's got talent, but I don't know if he would be anything more than a role player. I had him for a bit in dynasty. Just think he's never gonna be 'the' guy.

 

[Beastman]

QB:Carson Palmer (Young up-and-coming receiving corps and and offseason to actually build chemistry with them. I think he could surprise some folks)

RB:James Starks (Not exactly the Marshall Faulk prototype by any means, but he has the job all to himself and will find running room in the pass friendly offense)

WR:Eddie Royal (New scenery might be just what this young former 2nd round talent needed. He has Philip Rivers tossing him the rock this season and Norv Turner has been raving about him at OTA's and minicamp)

TE:Greg Olsen (I think Cam will be looking his way a lot this season. Sky is the limit for Cam and imagine actually having an offseason to work with your WR's and TE's will do. I think he'll be Cam's #2 option behind Steve)

 

[Sabertooth]

Comparing the early 00s Vikings to current day Bears is a bit apples to oranges . . .

This goes without saying. You can't even really compare a team from last year to a team from this year. There are thousands of variables.

 

[Sabertooth]

Jacquizz Rodgers ATL RB: Height/Weight 5' 6" / 196lbs, DOB/Age Feb 6, 1990 / 22

I loved his talent last season. I think he's headed for a big role increase. He's unlike the other backs on the team in that he's a scat back and can catch. Snelling will get some but he's more of a backup type of guy. Rodgers will bring an explosive element to the Falcons offense. When Turner is in the game you know he's running. And when Atlanta gets a lead he'll be leaned on. But with Carolina and New Orleans on the docket, not to mention the murderer's row of offenses the Falcons play in the second half of the season. You have a potentially money matchup in Detroit during championship week.

You have

7 BYE WEEK8 Sun, Oct 28 @ Philadelp 1:00 PM FOX Tickets9 Sun, Nov 4 vs Dallas 8:20 PM NBC Tickets10 Sun, Nov 11 @ New Orlea 1:00 PM FOX Tickets11 Sun, Nov 18 vs Arizona 1:00 PM FOX Tickets12 Sun, Nov 25 @ Tampa Bay 1:00 PM FOX Tickets13 Thu, Nov 29 vs New Orlea 8:20 PM NFL Tickets14 Sun, Dec 9 @ Carolina 1:00 PM FOX Tickets15 Sun, Dec 16 vs New York 1:00 PM FOX Tickets16 Sat, Dec 22 @ Detroit 8:30 PM --- Tickets17 Sun, Dec 30 vs Tampa Bay 1:00 PM FOX Tickets(Rotoworld) The Falcons have "high hopes" that Jacquizz Rodgers can handle an increased role this season.Analysis: Rodgers started slowly last summer after missing the offseason program, but he should enter this season as the primary passing-down back. Rogers can also expect to see an increase in off-tackle running plays within Michael Turner hammering in the trenches. Although OC Dirk Koetter does have a history of tandem attacks with Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew, we still view Quizz as merely a late-round fantasy flier.

 

[Brock Middlebrook]

Loyd isnt as big of a sleeper but he has everything going for him. Reunited with McDaniels, check- Best qb in the leage- check, great supporting cast- check and out to get a fat paycheck on his next contract (I believe)- check. I saw Lloyd alot last year as a Rams fan and the elite talent is there and McDaniels knows how to get it out of him. I am expecting top 10 #'s out of him.

Top 10 #s? Sure, if Brady throws for 7000/60.The "great supporting cast" part will be Lloyd's downfall. NE has so many other weapons I don't see any way he comes close to 150 targets like he did. The only way Lloyd sniffs the Top 10 IMO is if all the other guys take a pretty decent sized decrease in their production. Welker, Gronk, Hernandez to go along with Gaffney, Branch (for now), Stallworth (for now), Ocho (for now), and Edelman. Lloyd has performed as well as he did because he was the only real threat in DEN and STL. I don't see Lloyd getting targeted 25-30% of the time like he was for the Broncos and Rams. Put another way, Welker, Gronk, and Hernandez had 1 less reception than the entire Rams team did (292) last year.Lloyd also signed a three year deal, so he really isn't playing for another contract unless the Pats at some point release him, which seems unlikely given that he is only getting $4 million a year. He'd be 34 before he could play for another team if he plays out his Patriots contract.

If Lloyd can get open deep and on the outside, Brady will throw him as many passes as he can handle. Lloyd will eat into Gronk, Welker and Hernandez's targets, not the other way around. Of course its a 2 way street, but the point remains.

I agree with this. Brady loves that deep ball, if Lloyd can get separation Brady will give him the ball

can Brady still do the deep ball well? I was under the impresssion that the O was retooled away from Moss and towards the TEs and Welker because Brady may have lost a mph or two on his "fastball"

 

[Hoosier16]

Jacquizz Rodgers ATL RB: Height/Weight 5' 6" / 196lbs, DOB/Age Feb 6, 1990 / 22

I loved his talent last season. I think he's headed for a big role increase. He's unlike the other backs on the team in that he's a scat back and can catch. Snelling will get some but he's more of a backup type of guy. Rodgers will bring an explosive element to the Falcons offense. When Turner is in the game you know he's running. And when Atlanta gets a lead he'll be leaned on. But with Carolina and New Orleans on the docket, not to mention the murderer's row of offenses the Falcons play in the second half of the season. You have a potentially money matchup in Detroit during championship week.

I don't get the fascination with Rodgers. I just don't see anything explosive. His combine numbers:4.59 40 yard

33" vertical

9'05" broad jump

4.26 shuttle

7.31 3 cone

It also didn't show in his numbers last year (as well as any unique receiving ability):

3.6 yards per carry (Turner 4.5)

63.6% catch % (Turner 63%)

5.7 yards per target (Turner 6.2)

I can't see him ever being anything more than a backup. I don't see why they would increase his role at the expense of Turner when Turner is still more productive. A lot of 5'6", 196 pound guys can succeed in college. Very few can in the pros.

 

[cheese]

Reggie Bush.

People said for years that if he ever became a focal point of an offense, he would be a great weapon. Well, check the stats. It happened.... and it happened. Less than a year later, fans want to give his job away. This makes no sense to me. I think he matches or exceeds his production last year at a (once again) low price.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Reggie Bush.People said for years that if he ever became a focal point of an offense, he would be a great weapon. Well, check the stats. It happened.... and it happened. Less than a year later, fans want to give his job away. This makes no sense to me. I think he matches or exceeds his production last year at a (once again) low price.

Particularly in PPR. With Marshall gone, I definitely wouldn't be shocked if he leads the Dolphins in all receiving categories. Thomas didn't look like anything more than a backup to me, and I'm not on the Lamar Miller bandwagon. Bush should easily outperform his ADP.

 

[saintfool]

Reggie Bush.

People said for years that if he ever became a focal point of an offense, he would be a great weapon. Well, check the stats. It happened.... and it happened. Less than a year later, fans want to give his job away. This makes no sense to me. I think he matches or exceeds his production last year at a (once again) low price.

Particularly in PPR. With Marshall gone, I definitely wouldn't be shocked if he leads the Dolphins in all receiving categories. Thomas didn't look like anything more than a backup to me, and I'm not on the Lamar Miller bandwagon. Bush should easily outperform his ADP.

to be fair, he was injured. reggie should have a good season - if not great - because he will see a lot of time on the field. he's a playmaker and there aren't many on that team.

 

[Sabertooth]

Jacquizz Rodgers ATL RB: Height/Weight 5' 6" / 196lbs, DOB/Age Feb 6, 1990 / 22

I loved his talent last season. I think he's headed for a big role increase. He's unlike the other backs on the team in that he's a scat back and can catch. Snelling will get some but he's more of a backup type of guy. Rodgers will bring an explosive element to the Falcons offense. When Turner is in the game you know he's running. And when Atlanta gets a lead he'll be leaned on. But with Carolina and New Orleans on the docket, not to mention the murderer's row of offenses the Falcons play in the second half of the season. You have a potentially money matchup in Detroit during championship week.

I don't get the fascination with Rodgers. I just don't see anything explosive. His combine numbers:4.59 40 yard

33" vertical

9'05" broad jump

4.26 shuttle

7.31 3 cone

It also didn't show in his numbers last year (as well as any unique receiving ability):

3.6 yards per carry (Turner 4.5)

63.6% catch % (Turner 63%)

5.7 yards per target (Turner 6.2)

I can't see him ever being anything more than a backup. I don't see why they would increase his role at the expense of Turner when Turner is still more productive. A lot of 5'6", 196 pound guys can succeed in college. Very few can in the pros.

In PPR, he caught 20 of 26 targets. His coaches are stating they want to increase his workload. Michael Turner just isn't a receiver. The offense is obviously looking to transition for the ground and pound plan into a more passing attack. This is partly because the NFL is simply a passing league. Atlanta got the ever loving #### kicked out of them on national TV in the playoffs two seasons ago to the Packers and their "not one #### is given about running" mentality. Quizz really fits into that Darren Sproles role. Slasher, good catcher, stout. I just think he's got some value moving forward. I think he finishes somewhere in the Top 30 backs in the NFL if he stays healthy. FBGs has him ranked outside the Top 45. I think they are sleeping on him.

 

[Sake-Bombers]

Reggie Bush.

People said for years that if he ever became a focal point of an offense, he would be a great weapon. Well, check the stats. It happened.... and it happened. Less than a year later, fans want to give his job away. This makes no sense to me. I think he matches or exceeds his production last year at a (once again) low price.

Particularly in PPR. With Marshall gone, I definitely wouldn't be shocked if he leads the Dolphins in all receiving categories. Thomas didn't look like anything more than a backup to me, and I'm not on the Lamar Miller bandwagon. Bush should easily outperform his ADP.

to be fair, he was injured. reggie should have a good season - if not great - because he will see a lot of time on the field. he's a playmaker and there aren't many on that team.

I actually am targeting Thomas late in a TD heavy league. I think he's got a good chance to score TDs as short yardage guy even if doesn't end up with a ton of yardage.

 

[Abspara]

Jacquizz Rodgers ATL RB: Height/Weight 5' 6" / 196lbs, DOB/Age Feb 6, 1990 / 22

I loved his talent last season. I think he's headed for a big role increase. He's unlike the other backs on the team in that he's a scat back and can catch. Snelling will get some but he's more of a backup type of guy. Rodgers will bring an explosive element to the Falcons offense. When Turner is in the game you know he's running. And when Atlanta gets a lead he'll be leaned on. But with Carolina and New Orleans on the docket, not to mention the murderer's row of offenses the Falcons play in the second half of the season. You have a potentially money matchup in Detroit during championship week.

I don't get the fascination with Rodgers. I just don't see anything explosive. His combine numbers:4.59 40 yard

33" vertical

9'05" broad jump

4.26 shuttle

7.31 3 cone

It also didn't show in his numbers last year (as well as any unique receiving ability):

3.6 yards per carry (Turner 4.5)

63.6% catch % (Turner 63%)

5.7 yards per target (Turner 6.2)

I can't see him ever being anything more than a backup. I don't see why they would increase his role at the expense of Turner when Turner is still more productive. A lot of 5'6", 196 pound guys can succeed in college. Very few can in the pros.

In PPR, he caught 20 of 26 targets. His coaches are stating they want to increase his workload. Michael Turner just isn't a receiver. The offense is obviously looking to transition for the ground and pound plan into a more passing attack. This is partly because the NFL is simply a passing league. Atlanta got the ever loving #### kicked out of them on national TV in the playoffs two seasons ago to the Packers and their "not one #### is given about running" mentality. Quizz really fits into that Darren Sproles role. Slasher, good catcher, stout. I just think he's got some value moving forward. I think he finishes somewhere in the Top 30 backs in the NFL if he stays healthy. FBGs has him ranked outside the Top 45. I think they are sleeping on him.

I agree with this. Rodgers is going to have a nice year

 

[cr8f]

Housler if the Cardinals get a decent QB. 6'5 deep sleeper who runs 4.55 and catches the ball well. In latest camp reports are he was on the field almost every play.

 

[cr8f]

I don't think people are appreciating the gravity of Brandon Marshall and Jay Cutler. Both are heading north bigtime. I expect Marshall to be Top 5, ahead of Nicks, AJ Green, and Roddy. I expect Cutler to turn in his very best season.

I hope you're right. In Denver they almost had an esp connection. Cutler could look off 2 targets and know right where Marshall was.

 

[voiceofunreason]

A guy I like this year is Greg Little.Looks like he's committed himself to losing weight (no more cupcakes) in the offseason; a new QB in Weeden that should get the ball to him in the open field better than McCoy could; a high quality RB in Richardson that should help the offense overall move the chains; and most importantly, virtually no real competition at WR (Mo Mass is terrible) - really only Evan Moore and an aging Ben Watson to draw looks.

What makes you think Weeden will be any better than McCoy? The fact that Weeden will be a rookie seems to me a negative and the QB situation could easily regress in 2012 for the Browns. Having a good RB may keep some drives going longer, but it will also mean a greater share of runs than receptions. Not sure that having a bell weather RB is all that great for the passing game. How many great WR seasons have the Vikings had with ADP as the bell weather? Rice had one great season and Harvin has been ok but not great. These seems like poor arguments for Little. If he has worked harder in the off season that might help, but the rest of this argument seems weak.

I'll go out on a limb and say that Weeden from day one will be better than any QB the Vikings put on the field between Culpepper and Favre. The one thing no one can dispute is his arm and that alone will result in better numbers for Little. His upside is limited to around 1000 yards but he's a steal in the 9th/10th round.

In my mind, Cleveland is already on the clock deciding which qb to pick in the first next year. Weeden was one of the worst picks I've ever seen. They should have just kept Julio Jones because that first was a big part of that deal.

 

[massraider]

I'll repeat my mention of Marcel Reece, particularly for deep leagues. If McFadden should actually stay healthy all year (for a change) he would still have a value equal to or better than that of Michael Bush a couple years ago. If McFadden can't stay healthy or still suffers from his previous lis franc injury than Reece will be a certifiable stud for 2012.

Interesting. I've never heard of him and all I've heard is Goodson being the one to grab as the handcuff. Should it be Reece? Just looked him up and he has only had 47 carries the last 2 years and none his first 2 years.

No. He won't become some 20 carry stud. He'd become a 6 carry guy, that is dangerous in the passing game. Some long TDs as a receiver, but every week starter? No.

 

[cr8f]

What do you guys think of Austin Collie this year? if he's there late (12th round) would you take him? I'd like to see him get a shot at outsid WR and think he could do something.

 

[_lurker_]

What do you guys think of Austin Collie this year? if he's there late (12th round) would you take him? I'd like to see him get a shot at outsid WR and think he could do something.

Heya Randy!I think Collie is way under-valued this year. All one has to do is look at how well he did last year with some sub-par QB play to see what he might do this year as the #2 receiving option with a stud-prospect rookie QB>

 

[Skeletore Eh]

I don't think people are appreciating the gravity of Brandon Marshall and Jay Cutler. Both are heading north bigtime. I expect Marshall to be Top 5, ahead of Nicks, AJ Green, and Roddy. I expect Cutler to turn in his very best season.

Assuming nicks and green avoid serious injury, it doesn't matter what Marshall does. He won't be ranked ahead of either of them

 

[Sabertooth]

I think he does. 100+ is well within reach. Of course so is a suspension for assault or being stabbed again. His skill is top notch.

 

[Skeletore Eh]

I think he does. 100+ is well within reach. Of course so is a suspension for assault or being stabbed again. His skill is top notch.

You think he does what? Maybe I should have clarified, but in dynasty he won't be ranked ahead of nicks or green regardless of what he does this season. As you said he has just as good of a chance of retiring as he does of catching a 100 balls.

 

[Sabertooth]

I think he outscores both in ppr this year. But as a dynasty player I'd rather Nicks or Green too. Actually I traded Marshall away earlier this offseason and subsequently acquired Green and Nicks later on so I agree. The longer you hold Marshall, the higher the likelihood that he melts down again. But ifi had to predict right now, I would say Marshall then AJ then Nicks in ppr. Mainly because of the Nicks injury.

 

[FF Ninja]

Jacquizz Rodgers ATL RB: Height/Weight 5' 6" / 196lbs, DOB/Age Feb 6, 1990 / 22

I loved his talent last season. I think he's headed for a big role increase. He's unlike the other backs on the team in that he's a scat back and can catch. Snelling will get some but he's more of a backup type of guy. Rodgers will bring an explosive element to the Falcons offense. When Turner is in the game you know he's running. And when Atlanta gets a lead he'll be leaned on. But with Carolina and New Orleans on the docket, not to mention the murderer's row of offenses the Falcons play in the second half of the season. You have a potentially money matchup in Detroit during championship week.

I don't get the fascination with Rodgers. I just don't see anything explosive. His combine numbers:4.59 40 yard

33" vertical

9'05" broad jump

4.26 shuttle

7.31 3 cone

It also didn't show in his numbers last year (as well as any unique receiving ability):

3.6 yards per carry (Turner 4.5)

63.6% catch % (Turner 63%)

5.7 yards per target (Turner 6.2)

I can't see him ever being anything more than a backup. I don't see why they would increase his role at the expense of Turner when Turner is still more productive. A lot of 5'6", 196 pound guys can succeed in college. Very few can in the pros.

Good points here. I'd also like to quote Waldman from the overvalued/undervalued segment:

Matt Waldman - Say what you will about Michael Turner's age and Jacquizz Rodgers' talent, but I'm betting on the veteran power runner for one more year of top-12 fantasy runner production. He played well despite offseason groin surgery. The I thought the problem with the running game in Atlanta was the play calling under former coordinator Mike Mularkey, who tried too often to run the ball outside rather than between the tackles. There's a time where coaches can outsmart themselves with attempting timely, unpredictable calls and I thought early in the season Mularkey was culpable of just that. Rodgers may flash lead back talent, but I don't see the second-year runner earning more than 20 percent of the touches in Atlanta this year unless Turner gets hurt. In fact, I think that number his high. While the team wants to surround quarterback Matt Ryan with weapons, I think they were most successful last year when they stopped trying to be an explosive, down field passing offense and reverted to its identity as a power running team that uses the play action game for strong success through the air. I think his spot as the No.17 running back is 10 spots too low and I think that's pretty drastic value considering the weight fantasy owners place on picks in the first 3-4 rounds of a draft.

I think Rodgers might be worth rostering in best ball ppr leagues such as the annual FBG subscriber contest, but I can't see taking him in another leagues. The ADP price is right, but unless you've got huge rosters then the lost roster spot alone is probably not worth it.

 

[Sabertooth]

I think he really has value in ppr if the offensive transition continues. Turner brings little to the passing attack.

 

[hedzookeeper]

Jerome Simpson WR MIN.

If you can stash until Week 4 then you could have a nice WR2/3,cheap.

 

[zamboni]

I think he really has value in ppr if the offensive transition continues. Turner brings little to the passing attack.

Agreed - Rodgers strikes me as a guy to stash for dynasty purposes, but not a whole lot of value for redraft unless Turner gets hurt.

 

[Grahamburn]

Brandon Pettigrew.

If he can improve on his catch % and yards per catch even by a small margin he'll likely approach top 5 TE numbers, and he'd only need a handful more red zone TDs to keep up with the big guys at the TE position. Expect the Lions to utilize him on more than just short hitches and outs in 2012, which is why his ypc was so poor in 2011. He was basically the dump off option.

With Calvin garnering the defenses undivided attention, Pettigrew should find some soft areas on the field to be a nice target for Stafford. Keep an eye on training camp reports and preseason games to get an idea of how they're using him.

 

[Angry Beavers]

:whitecorner: for later

 

[FF Ninja]

I think he really has value in ppr if the offensive transition continues. Turner brings little to the passing attack.

Agreed - Rodgers strikes me as a guy to stash for dynasty purposes, but not a whole lot of value for redraft unless Turner gets hurt.

This. I've been thinking this thread was about 2012. Quiz doesn't have much value in 2012.I also agree with Saber that Turner brings little to the passing attack (whether that's his fault or by design is another discussion), but does that really matter? This isn't SD where they need to find guys to catch the ball. They have Roddy, Julio, and Tony - each guy capable of being the #1 target in an offense. They don't really need to look to their RBs to carry the passing attack.

 

[getsmartt]

QB - Josh Freeman - Think he comes really close to cracking the top 10 this year.

WR's - Agree with Collie, Meachum and Garcon

TE - Celek

 

[Anonymous Internet User]

QB - Josh Freeman - Think he comes really close to cracking the top 10 this year.

Oof. As someone who rolled with him as his QB1 last year, let me tell you that it was way way worse than his statline indicated. Virtually all of his points came in the 4th quarter last year. Don't trust this guy.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Brandon Pettigrew.If he can improve on his catch % and yards per catch even by a small margin he'll likely approach top 5 TE numbers, and he'd only need a handful more red zone TDs to keep up with the big guys at the TE position. Expect the Lions to utilize him on more than just short hitches and outs in 2012, which is why his ypc was so poor in 2011. He was basically the dump off option. With Calvin garnering the defenses undivided attention, Pettigrew should find some soft areas on the field to be a nice target for Stafford. Keep an eye on training camp reports and preseason games to get an idea of how they're using him.

last year it seemed to me that PEttigrew only did really good #1 against Minnesota, and #2 when Scheffler was out with injury.

 

[getsmartt]

QB - Josh Freeman - Think he comes really close to cracking the top 10 this year.

Oof. As someone who rolled with him as his QB1 last year, let me tell you that it was way way worse than his statline indicated. Virtually all of his points came in the 4th quarter last year. Don't trust this guy.

Don't get me wrong, no way I am taking him as my QB1, but I will definitely grab him late in a couple of leagues as a back-up/breakout candidate.

 

[Grahamburn]

Brandon Pettigrew.If he can improve on his catch % and yards per catch even by a small margin he'll likely approach top 5 TE numbers, and he'd only need a handful more red zone TDs to keep up with the big guys at the TE position. Expect the Lions to utilize him on more than just short hitches and outs in 2012, which is why his ypc was so poor in 2011. He was basically the dump off option. With Calvin garnering the defenses undivided attention, Pettigrew should find some soft areas on the field to be a nice target for Stafford. Keep an eye on training camp reports and preseason games to get an idea of how they're using him.

last year it seemed to me that PEttigrew only did really good #1 against Minnesota, and #2 when Scheffler was out with injury.

That's why he's a sleeper.

 

[Sabertooth]

A case can be made for .... wait for it ... Tim Tebow. If Sanchez is going to implode, which many predict, taking that a step further we see Rex Ryan running running running with Tebow and Greene. At this point, I'd say we can expect similar results from Tebow to what he had last season. He managed 19 PPG. That put him right in the mix with Matt Ryan and Philip Rivers.

 

[squistion]

A case can be made for .... wait for it ... Tim Tebow. If Sanchez is going to implode, which many predict, taking that a step further we see Rex Ryan running running running with Tebow and Greene. At this point, I'd say we can expect similar results from Tebow to what he had last season. He managed 19 PPG. That put him right in the mix with Matt Ryan and Philip Rivers.

That isn't as far fetched as many believe. In the first 5 weeks of the season the Jets face 4 top 5 defenses from 2011 and if Sanchez struggles...I own Tebow in a 14 keeper and he was on my "to be cut" list, but now I think I will hold him to see how this plays out. And for what it is worth, Michael Irvin had this to say about Tebow back in April:

http://articles.nydailynews.com/2012-04-19/news/31363465_1_tim-tebow-tebowmania-mark-sanchez

Tebow can start by Week 3:

DANIEL O'LEARY

Thursday, April 19, 2012

Count Michael Irvin in on Tebowmania in the Big Apple.

The former Dallas Cowboys wide receiver and Pro Football Hall of Famer-turned NFL Network analyst had a message for New York Jets starting quarterback Mark Sanchez: You'd better play well, and you'd better play well immediately.

Irvin spoke earnestly on NFL Total Access Tuesday, saying that if the Jets and their signal-caller falter in the opener against Buffalo and in Week 2 against the Steelers, The Playmaker could see Tim Tebow as the new starter by Week 3.

 

[zamboni]

May have been mentioned already, but I would nominate Ryan Williams.

Granted, he has his own significant injury to deal with, but if his recovery continues on the right path and he comes out of the gates strong - while Beanie doesn't return to health or gets hurt again - Williams could take the job for good.

 

[FF Ninja]

For me it's Peyton Hillis. This guy is going to be a beast this year. KC is going to run the ball....a lot. Hillis will catch it out of the backfield as well. Charles is coming back from injury. Hillis reunites with his old OC that made him a stud and on the cover of Madden a mear 2 years ago. This guy is going to be the workhorse here. I see a top 10 year in PPR leagues maybe higher. There are a lot of playmakers on this team for defenses to watch leaving the middle of the field for Hillis. I'm grabbing him everywhere I can.

Then you're suggesting Jamaal Charles will be relegated to a backup role. It's highly unlikely Hillis would be close to top 10 if he's in a full RBBC.

Nope, I think the Chiefs are going to run the ball 60% of the time. Charles will get 10-12 carries and 4-5 receptions/game. Always the threat for the hhomerun. Hillis will get 15-20 carries/game and 4-5 receptions. He will be the workhorse. Thomas Jones was the 27th RB 2 years ago when Charles was a top 5 RB. I believe Hillis a far superior back to Jones and I don't see Charles getting as many carries as he did 2 years ago. I could potentially see both RBs being top 15 RBs. Only you can get Hillis 6-7 rounds later.

I was going to mention Hillis, but I found this so I'll just agree that Hillis is likely being underdrafted. He is going as RB32 in the 7th round while Charles is going RB12 at the 2nd/3rd turn. KC is more likely to succeed on the ground than via Cassel. Hillis is better equipped for this task than Charles. He averaged 4.4 ypc on a poor Cleveland team. This KC O-line can run block. Not to mention Hillis is on a 1-year contract. In keeper/dynasty leagues I think he is a "must have" given his value. The risk/reward ratio is very favorable for him. I don't think Charles is a scrub, but he isn't the between the tackles rusher that Hillis is (at least in my perception). I think they could easily rush the ball more than the 442 times they did last year (518 the year before). I expect Hillis to see more snaps than Charles, so I don't see the disparity in receptions that people are projecting. Hillis has proven to be a very reliable receiver, so I think we could see a lot of receptions as well. Most importantly, who do you think is getting carries inside the 5 yard line?220 carries x 4.6 ypc = 1012 yards 10TD, 40 rec x 7.5 = 300 yds 1 TD

 

[cstu]

May have been mentioned already, but I would nominate Ryan Williams.Granted, he has his own significant injury to deal with, but if his recovery continues on the right path and he comes out of the gates strong - while Beanie doesn't return to health or gets hurt again - Williams could take the job for good.

I'm optimistic about his health but as long as Wells is healthy he's going to be the main back on non-passing downs this season. However, Wells doesn't have an injury history so Williams is a nice flyer to take late. His ADP in the 8th round is about where it should be given the risk, but there's a very good chance he outperforms it.