Explain the madness to me... (1 Viewer)

[Warpig]

I'm just confused as to why everyone is saying Vernon Davis is going to put up scary numbers even though he has Alex Smith throwing to him. Their justification is that rookie/young QB's like to use their TE's as a "security blanket". Yet you have people on these message boards moving Antonio Gates down their rankings because they are worried about Rivers, essentially a Rookie QB, throwing him the ball? Wouldn't Rivers depend on Gates just like Alex Smith would depend on Vernon Davis? Makes sense to me.

 

[BusMan]

I believe these particular cases have more to do with expectation versus past performance. Gates has been the #1 TE the past two seasons, so he can only go down (relatively speaking). Davis is coming in as a rookie, and those who are using the Alex Smith safety blanket argument probably just thing hes a little undervalued.

Certainly you can't have it both ways, but I think its easy enough to read between the lines here: Be cautious in your expectation of Gates (because they're high), and feel ok about bumping Davis' expectations (because they're already low due to the rookie factor).

Did that make sense or did I just make things worse?

 

[CalBear]

There's no real evidence that young QBs pass to the TE more; young QBs are more likely to lock on to their primary read, and their primary read is more often a WR than a TE. The people who are downgrading Gates are correct, and the people who are pimping Davis are nuts.

 

[David Yudkin]

There's no real evidence that young QBs pass to the TE more; young QBs are more likely to lock on to their primary read, and their primary read is more often a WR than a TE. The people who are downgrading Gates are correct, and the people who are pimping Davis are nuts.

I'm in agreement that Gates' numbers will likely dip some, but if a team's #1 receiver is a tight end, why wouldn't the young QB lock onto him?

 

[Adam Sommer]

You want a sleeper TE....Zach Hilton.

Davis will be drafted much earlier than Hilton in many drafts.....save your pick and take Hilton. The man is a monster, has TE friendly QB in Brees, and a solid surrounding cast. NO will have a nice offense this season.

 

[diesel7982]

You want a sleeper TE....Zach Hilton.

Davis will be drafted much earlier than Hilton in many drafts.....save your pick and take Hilton. The man is a monster, has TE friendly QB in Brees, and a solid surrounding cast. NO will have a nice offense this season.

Lets see Hilton get above the #3 TE job before we start saying things like this.

 

[David Yudkin]

You want a sleeper TE....Zach Hilton.

Davis will be drafted much earlier than Hilton in many drafts.....save your pick and take Hilton. The man is a monster, has TE friendly QB in Brees, and a solid surrounding cast. NO will have a nice offense this season.

I was a lot higher on Hilton earlier in the preseason. My concerns are:- Made little effort in trying to resign him and he could have been signed by another team with effectively no compensation

- Ernie Conwell appears to be listed as the #1 TE and could very well be the starting TE if his recovery stays on course

- The Saints currently roster 6 TEs in Conwell, Hilton, Mark Campbell, Tim Euhus, Billy Miller, and Nate Lawrie.

- We have no idea what to expect from the ne offensive scheme

- We have no idea if there will be lasting effects of Brees' shoulder injury

- The Saints WR corps seems to be a decent upgrade from the Chargers (Horn, Stallworth, Henderson, etc. with Bush playing some plays at WR).

I agree that Hilton is a decent investment for where he will be drafted, but IMO he's a long way from being Antonio Gates. I wuold not feel comfortable relying on Hilton as my TE1, and I would personally need to carry another TE that could either be counted on for some production or another guy that could also break out (like a Watson or a Winslow).

 

[Chaka]

There's no real evidence that young QBs pass to the TE more; young QBs are more likely to lock on to their primary read, and their primary read is more often a WR than a TE. The people who are downgrading Gates are correct, and the people who are pimping Davis are nuts.

True enough but I think it is likely that Gates is the #1 read on the majority of passing plays for San Diego.

 

[Z-Dog]

I've never seen any quantification of the theory that young QBs throw to TEs more. Of course, Rivers is an unusual QB in the sense that he's a top-5 pick who has essentially say for two years. Though this is rare, sitting for one year has previously been proven beneficial over starting from day 1. In any case, we've seen guys like Daunte Culpepper and Chad Pennington really light up the league in their first years as starters, after sitting for a year or two, respectively. I believe that Rivers will be much further along than his on-field experience might dictate.

As for Vernon Davis, if you assume that he presents the same athletic challenges to a defense that Gates does, you ahve to believe that he will put up great numbers - heck, Gates was so raw when he emerged, so a guy who actually played the position in college should be able to replicate Gates' performance. That's the thinking, anyway.

 

[Slinger]

You want a sleeper TE....Zach Hilton.

Davis will be drafted much earlier than Hilton in many drafts.....save your pick and take Hilton.  The man is a monster, has TE friendly QB in Brees, and a solid surrounding cast.  NO will have a nice offense this season.

Lets see Hilton get above the #3 TE job before we start saying things like this.

He's currently #2 behind the legend that is Ernie Conwell. In other words, look for Hilton to have a good year.

 

[Despyzer]

I believe these particular cases have more to do with expectation versus past performance. Gates has been the #1 TE the past two seasons, so he can only go down (relatively speaking). Davis is coming in as a rookie, and those who are using the Alex Smith safety blanket argument probably just thing hes a little undervalued.

I could completely get on board with this argument if we are all willing to overlook the fact that Gates is still progressing as a player. He's entering only his fourth year in the league and (with no college experience and no HS experience at TE) is still learning to be a football player and grow in his position. Shouldn't that fact figure into the discussion on Gates somewhat?

 

[Adam Sommer]

Concerning Hilton.....he is in no way a Gates or Gonzo, and I wasn't saying he would be. But if I had to pick between Davis and Hilton, Id probably go with Hilton. Hilton will be drafted many rounds later than Davis....IMO he is a sleeper and presents a nice value pick, not a stud. Gates is a stud and I have no worries (baring injury) that he will finish top 3-5 (at least) TE regardless of QB.

As far as QB throwing to TE more, it is much more than just a young QB. You need to consider the offensive scheme the team runs and that individual QBs tendencies. The WR corp of the team also plays a factor.

Consider these 2004 rooks:

QB:Carson Palmer

Top TE: Matt Schobel

Caught 21 passes for 201 yards and 4 TDs

QB:Eli Manning

Top TE: Jeremy Shockey

Caught 61 passes for 666 yards and 6 TDs

QB:Big Ben

Top TE: Jerame Tuman

Caught 9 passes for 89 yards and 3 TDs

Big Ben and Palmer, both very solid QBs who had big rookie years, hardly used their TEs. I attribute this to the style of offense in Pitt and Cincy, the lack of quality receiving TEs, and their solid WR corps.

Manning, on the other hand, has a great receiving TE in Shockey and is in an offense that plans to look at Shockey....

So, it is more than just a young/rookie/inexperienced QB and a big TE......but, the niners do lack a solid WR corp (no Hines Ward or C.Johnson there) and do have a solid TE in Davis, so who knows....maybe he will have a huge season.

 

[Adam Sommer]

He's currently #2 behind the legend that is Ernie Conwell. In other words, look for Hilton to have a good year.

Hey, Conway is a future Hall of Famer.....He is 34 (or will be when the season starts).

He has never caught more than 38 passes in one season.

He has been in the NFL for 10 seasons, and has only 14 TDs TOTAL!

He has not caught more than 2 TDs in a season since 2001.

He has had injuries in recent years (the man is old you know).

Hilton will be the starter on week 1, no doubt. He is huge (basketball player size.....kind-of like A.Gates) and had a great finish to last season......

 

[Warpig]

I believe these particular cases have more to do with expectation versus past performance. Gates has been the #1 TE the past two seasons, so he can only go down (relatively speaking). Davis is coming in as a rookie, and those who are using the Alex Smith safety blanket argument probably just thing hes a little undervalued.

Certainly you can't have it both ways, but I think its easy enough to read between the lines here: Be cautious in your expectation of Gates (because they're high), and feel ok about bumping Davis' expectations (because they're already low due to the rookie factor).

Did that make sense or did I just make things worse?

I can go along with some of this. But I don't buy into the thinking of expecting Gates to dip in his production BECAUSE OF Rivers. IF young QB's do lean on their TE's more (which I don't think is true either) why wouldn't Gates maintain his #1 status? Sure, V. Davis seems to be a freak of nature at the TE position, but he hasn't played a down in the NFL. I tend to think people are just overhyping Davis. I can agree with the poster that said young QB's tend to lock onto a particular receiver. And I'd be willing to bet the receiver is more often than not a WR because the QB is wanting to get the ball further down the field (young mistakes). I would probably lean more towards the offensive scheme and if the TE is a stud or not. Not just because the QB is young or "he can't stay #1 forever" theory.

So, I guess what I'm saying is I ain't dropping Gates in my rankings and I'll let the overhyped Davis get drafted way before he should. If it does come down to QB's...gimme Rivers over Alex Smith anyday.

 

[msommer]

Orton and Losman last year seems to be supporting CalBear's statement....

 

[Adam Sommer]

Orton and Losman last year seems to be cupporting CalBear's statement....

For the record:The top Bills TE last year was Mark campbell with 19 receptions for 139 yards an 0 TDs.

The top Bears TE last year was Desmond Clark with 24 receptions for 229 yards an 2 TDs.