Explain to me the value of doing projections (1 Viewer)

[squistion]

I've NEVER done a projection. It's a waste of time IMO and I've done pretty well in this hobby.

But I'd argue you really are doing them, johnny. You're just not doing them as detailed as some. Everyone projects. If not, you'd never be able to sort any players. You have to rank them somehow. And you've only got a few choices. Rank them alphabetically, by team, by college, by weight, by height etc. Or you can rank them by how valuable you think they'll be in Fantasy Football this year.For some, that may be nothing more than a simple 1. 2. 3. cheatsheet ranking. For others, that will be projecting every touch and pass and yard. It's the same idea, just how detailed you want to go.It's been my experience, that to consistently be successful, you need to be using (not necessarily doing them yourself) detailed stat projections.J

I think you are nitpicking here Joe. Yes, this entire hobby is about people making projections but JohnnyU was referring to the detailed stat projections you later touched on. Thank goodness they (specific stats) are no longer a requirement to make a posting in the player spotlight series. For years I wanted to make comments in those threads but was prohibited from doing so (or reprimanded if I didn't) unless I pulled some numbers out of my posterior to go along with it. I don't know when that changed but I see that they are now not required, but are "strongly recommended."

 

[Warrior]

This may help...

http://www.footballguys.com/07tremblay_drafting.php

I am familiar with VBD. The point I am attempting to make is in any given year the projections are so far off the map they are essentially useless. So you could be drafting all this excellent "value", but it is entirely based on the flawed premise that your projections are going to be reasonably close to what actually occurs that season.

If you're good, your projections will be better than others over the long run. Like poker...you could say "You're not good at poker, you lost the last three hands!"...gotta look at the long term.Not that complicated.

 

[JohnnyU]

I think Joe is right when he asserts that owners who do statistical analysis have themselves an advantage that others do not.

I disagree. I've won lots of $$$ in FBGs leagues without having to do this.

 

[Creed Bratton]

I think Joe is right when he asserts that owners who do statistical analysis have themselves an advantage that others do not.

I disagree. I've won lots of $$$ in FBGs leagues without having to do this.

I'm not saying that statistical analysis is essential to be successful. You can clearly win even if you don't do it. There are plenty of different ways to win in fantasy. I'm just saying that the more informed player is going to be at an advantage. Most of us don't take the time to actually record and break down game tape on fantasy relevant players, but if you did it would probably make you more competitive. But plenty of us manage to win without doing it. And for the record, I believe the statistical advantage is more pronounced in leagues with atypical scoring standards.

 

[Holy Schneikes]

I think Joe is right when he asserts that owners who do statistical analysis have themselves an advantage that others do not.

I disagree. I've won lots of $$$ in FBGs leagues without having to do this.

That's cuz you're a fricken GENIUS! I don't do detailed all-inclusive projections, but I do understand the value of doing them. You obviously don't HAVE to do them to be successful, but that doesn't directly prove anything about the value of them either way. Maybe you'd be even more awesomer if you did projections.It's kind of like like saying Barry Sanders didn't do much in the weight room, and he was awesome, so hitting the weights can't help a guy get better at playing RB. Logic doesn't flow that way.

 

[Joe Bryant]

I think Joe is right when he asserts that owners who do statistical analysis have themselves an advantage that others do not.

I disagree. I've won lots of $$$ in FBGs leagues without having to do this.

Can you help me understand more what you do here?Do you go into a draft with a numerical ranking for each position? For overall?J

 

[JohnnyU]

I think Joe is right when he asserts that owners who do statistical analysis have themselves an advantage that others do not.

I disagree. I've won lots of $$$ in FBGs leagues without having to do this.

Can you help me understand more what you do here?Do you go into a draft with a numerical ranking for each position? For overall?J

I go into the draft with a sheet to just mark off players as they are drafted. I don't care what order they are in. After all the research done on players in fantasy I have an idea how they should be ranked. I don't need stats or even ranking on a piece of paper to tell me this. I've told others that I at least rank my players, but in reality I don't do it on the computer or by writing it down. I feel enough has been learned by the time of the draft this is not necessary.

 

[by_the_sea_wannabe]

I think Joe is right when he asserts that owners who do statistical analysis have themselves an advantage that others do not.

I disagree. I've won lots of $$$ in FBGs leagues without having to do this.

Can you help me understand more what you do here?Do you go into a draft with a numerical ranking for each position? For overall?J

I go into the draft with a sheet to just mark off players as they are drafted. I don't care what order they are in. After all the research done on players in fantasy I have an idea how they should be ranked. I don't need stats or even ranking on a piece of paper to tell me this.

You are using projections.

 

[Lord Fantasy]

Projections are a story told with numbers.

 

[JohnnyU]

I think Joe is right when he asserts that owners who do statistical analysis have themselves an advantage that others do not.

I disagree. I've won lots of $$$ in FBGs leagues without having to do this.

Can you help me understand more what you do here?Do you go into a draft with a numerical ranking for each position? For overall?J

I go into the draft with a sheet to just mark off players as they are drafted. I don't care what order they are in. After all the research done on players in fantasy I have an idea how they should be ranked. I don't need stats or even ranking on a piece of paper to tell me this.

You are using projections.

What projections do I use?

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

The value in projections is not in INDIVIDUAL projections but in making TEAM projections. I say that because many times people will make individual player projections for high profile players . . . but when you add all them up they account for 2,000 more yards and 20 more TD than their team will actually get.

On the other hand, some may project as if all 32 starting QBs are going to play sixteen games each when we know that isn't the case in reality. People used to bump Donovan McNabb or Kurt Warner down in projections every season because they were considered an injury risk. So McNabb on the projections sheet would end up being QB12 instead of QB6, which is misleading. If I went into a draft and you told me McNabb was going to miss three games this year, I would be fine with that because I know which three games based on injury reports and will plug in a backup those weeks. But the 13 weeks I have him I am getting QB6 numbers; not QB12 numbers.Which really leads to a better question. Do FBG projectors factor in injuries or project players as if they will all play 16 games? Do they do some of both? How can the subscriber know when one method is used on one player but not the other?

 

[Stinkin Ref]

I have never done qoute "projections" and I never will.....that is what I pay FBG for. My projections aren't going to be any better than theirs, I trust FBG's.

To me rankings are the same as projections when your scoring system is plugged into the VBD cheatsheet and DD to see how players are ranked. Then I tweak it based on my gut. I have never followed the DD or VBD cheatsheet to the letter.

I may think in my head after seeing the generated cheatsheet that Dwayne Bowe is actually better than 10 guys ahead of him, so I just adjust. Call that "projecting" if you want, but it doesn't involve crunching numbers.

Just don't see why I should do all the work, when the experts I trust do it for me. Then my projecting is only a matter of tweaking what the experts have done for me based on personal preference. I think I do enough other evaluation to make up for whatever benefit I may get by taking the time to crunch numbers.

 

[radballs]

What projections do I use?

If you take RB 17 before any other player in round 4, you are using projections. Anytime you select ANY player over a DIFFERENT player you are using projections. Don't understand why you don't see that. Also, I really find it hard to believe that you have your list of players in alpha order when you go to a live draft. On the other hand, I do see how players might change during a draft in how they were projected or ranked on my sheets or in my computer. If I've started off the draft with relatively SAFE players, I might swing for the fences later or vice versa which might mean RB 28 on my list is more attractive than RB 23 given 28's upside. In any case, I don't see what you're saying Johnny. You may not be making yardage or TD projections by player, but you are indirectly doing projections as soon as you take Greg Jennings over Mike Sims-Walker.

 

[GregR_2]

While I wholeheartedly agree that a large benefit, and probably the largest, comes out of what you learn just from doing projections... I think people here are downplaying the value just of having projections instead of having rankings.

People frequently make the mistake of transferring the error in the BELIEFS ABOUT THE PLAYERS onto the projections as if it is a failing of the projections. Whatever set of beliefs about the coming year you use (your own, someone from a site like FBG, etc), if you think that is the best prediction of the future you can get, then you should make your decisions based on them and you should try to stay consistent within this beliefs.

With projections, thought is given to each player and then captured. In the form of a projection, those beliefs can now be transformed between different scoring systems without losing anything. A human being just isn't capable of not losing details in the mix if they to keep information about 30 QBs, 50 RBs, 60 WRs and 18 TEs in their head.

This is even more the case for an auction league. For a given combination of set of beliefs about the players, scoring system, and beliefs about how much cap to spend on starters vs backups... you can nail down what a player is worth. But again, there are too many players to stay consistent to your beliefs if you don't take the rigorous step of quantifying your belief about the player so you can use that to determine the price instead of going with a gut instinct on the price. I seriously doubt anyone here could write down what they feel is the proper auction price for all of the players who will be taken as starters in their league, and have that number come close to the total amount of cap room they feel should be spent on starters. If we can't do that, then the numbers we're coming up with using our gut isn't really consistent with our beliefs about how the players should do... and the reason is because it's more information than our gut can handle.

When you come down to it, most of the decisions that we make in FF are based on our perception of the value of 2 or more players... the value of each being determined by not just where he ranks vs others in his position, but by how much better or worse he is than the rest of the position. Understanding how the value drops off at the position is important. If you express your belief with a set of numbers you gain a lot of ability to display and visualize these concepts that few outside of idiot savants could manage for the number of players and factors we deal with.

When I have a projection for all of the players, I can very quickly compare the fantasy points I expect to be scored by the collection of QBs, RBs, WRs and TEs I'm likely to end up with at my next three picks, and find the combination that I expect will score the most. I can also do the same thing with a gut decision just looking at the names. But as I said before, if I captured all of my thoughts about the player in that number then anytime I'm using the number I'm taking all of that into account. If I go with my gut, I am probably not going to be able to include all of the factors because I just plain won't remember them all.

Many people who use rankings tier players. This is no different than projections in that it is trying to capture information in advance to try to make comparisons easier when decisions have to be made. Where it does differ though is that it loses out on flexibility and consistency. It's still a step better than just drafting off a ranking list with nothing to suggest there are different sized gaps between the players. But it still leaves the owner to have to try to remember just how big he thinks each gap is and to be able to relate that to the gaps at other positions. The benefit of projections is that you have a better expression of your belief that you stay with.

And let me end this bringing it back around to where I started. That my beliefs about the coming season are imperfect doesn't mean I shouldn't make decisions based on my beliefs. As long as they are the beliefs I think are best, I should try to stay consistent within them to a reasonable degree.

 

[Marauder]

I think Joe is right when he asserts that owners who do statistical analysis have themselves an advantage that others do not.

I disagree. I've won lots of $$$ in FBGs leagues without having to do this.

That doesn't mean you couldn't have won even more if you did it.

 

[HULLOBUDMAN]

When you come down to it, most of the decisions that we make in FF are based on our perception of the value of 2 or more players... the value of each being determined by not just where he ranks vs others in his position, but by how much better or worse he is than the rest of the position. Understanding how the value drops off at the position is important. If you express your belief with a set of numbers you gain a lot of ability to display and visualize these concepts that few outside of idiot savants could manage for the number of players and factors we deal with.

I completely agree that everytime a person makes a decision of one player or another it constitutes some type of projection. If you say that AP is the #1 RB and CJ3 is #2, you have made a projection. If you say the CJ3 and AP are in your first tier and MJD and Turner are in your second tier, I believe that is a projection. I also believe that so many people, particularly on the website feel bound to use a numerical value to assign to a player due to Joe and VBD. SO in the end, you get the two schools of thought clashing about projections being worthwhile.Now the second part of your post is where I see as a biggest issue of projections where you issue each player a projection based upon yardage, TDs, receptions, etc. You feel that having these number help you to recognize dropoffs at each position and assess value. In my opinion, this type of projection is no more useful than tiering players and is often the source of bad decisions for many people. I know many of the subscribers here use the DD and VBD like it is the bible of drafting but when you are using flawed projections, then the dropoffs will be flawed also, no?

 

[CalBear]

I completely agree that everytime a person makes a decision of one player or another it constitutes some type of projection. If you say that AP is the #1 RB and CJ3 is #2, you have made a projection. If you say the CJ3 and AP are in your first tier and MJD and Turner are in your second tier, I believe that is a projection. I also believe that so many people, particularly on the website feel bound to use a numerical value to assign to a player due to Joe and VBD. SO in the end, you get the two schools of thought clashing about projections being worthwhile.Now the second part of your post is where I see as a biggest issue of projections where you issue each player a projection based upon yardage, TDs, receptions, etc. You feel that having these number help you to recognize dropoffs at each position and assess value. In my opinion, this type of projection is no more useful than tiering players and is often the source of bad decisions for many people. I know many of the subscribers here use the DD and VBD like it is the bible of drafting but when you are using flawed projections, then the dropoffs will be flawed also, no?

The projections aren't any more flawed than the tiers or the rankings or whatever it is you use. The major thing projections help with isn't so much whether Vincent Jackson or Sidney Rice is more valuable. It's whether Vincent Jackson or Shonn Greene is more valuable. How are you going to answer that question with a cheatsheet?

 

[Stinkin Ref]

I completely agree that everytime a person makes a decision of one player or another it constitutes some type of projection. If you say that AP is the #1 RB and CJ3 is #2, you have made a projection. If you say the CJ3 and AP are in your first tier and MJD and Turner are in your second tier, I believe that is a projection. I also believe that so many people, particularly on the website feel bound to use a numerical value to assign to a player due to Joe and VBD. SO in the end, you get the two schools of thought clashing about projections being worthwhile.Now the second part of your post is where I see as a biggest issue of projections where you issue each player a projection based upon yardage, TDs, receptions, etc. You feel that having these number help you to recognize dropoffs at each position and assess value. In my opinion, this type of projection is no more useful than tiering players and is often the source of bad decisions for many people. I know many of the subscribers here use the DD and VBD like it is the bible of drafting but when you are using flawed projections, then the dropoffs will be flawed also, no?

The projections aren't any more flawed than the tiers or the rankings or whatever it is you use. The major thing projections help with isn't so much whether Vincent Jackson or Sidney Rice is more valuable. It's whether Vincent Jackson or Shonn Greene is more valuable. How are you going to answer that question with a cheatsheet?

by the column ranking on the right that says "Overall use for top 50-60"..... in addition to who you already have on your roster, who you think will make it back to you, etc.........

 

[CalBear]

by the column ranking on the right that says "Overall use for top 50-60".....

And that's more accurate than projections in what way?

in addition to who you already have on your roster, who you think will make it back to you, etc.........

You have the 1.01 and you take Peterson. Now it's the 2.12/3.01 turn. You've got RBs Grant, Mendenhall, Benson, Moreno out there, as well as WRs Colston, Smith (CAR), V.Jackson, and QB Rivers. Do you go WR-WR? WR-RB? RB-RB? WR-QB? If you don't have projections underlying your rankings, at best you're just guessing.

 

[GregR_2]

When you come down to it, most of the decisions that we make in FF are based on our perception of the value of 2 or more players... the value of each being determined by not just where he ranks vs others in his position, but by how much better or worse he is than the rest of the position. Understanding how the value drops off at the position is important. If you express your belief with a set of numbers you gain a lot of ability to display and visualize these concepts that few outside of idiot savants could manage for the number of players and factors we deal with.

I completely agree that everytime a person makes a decision of one player or another it constitutes some type of projection. If you say that AP is the #1 RB and CJ3 is #2, you have made a projection. If you say the CJ3 and AP are in your first tier and MJD and Turner are in your second tier, I believe that is a projection. I also believe that so many people, particularly on the website feel bound to use a numerical value to assign to a player due to Joe and VBD. SO in the end, you get the two schools of thought clashing about projections being worthwhile.Now the second part of your post is where I see as a biggest issue of projections where you issue each player a projection based upon yardage, TDs, receptions, etc. You feel that having these number help you to recognize dropoffs at each position and assess value. In my opinion, this type of projection is no more useful than tiering players and is often the source of bad decisions for many people. I know many of the subscribers here use the DD and VBD like it is the bible of drafting but when you are using flawed projections, then the dropoffs will be flawed also, no?

Let's say you have a friend who is a novice player and you're giving him your tiered rankings so he can use them in a league. It's an auction league. What would you tell him is the method to convert your tiers that don't quantify the gaps between them, into auction values that match your beliefs he's chosen to work from?I think too many people get caught up in expressing their thought as a number. As if so long as they don't nail it down and keep it nebulous and a gut feeling it's ok, but the moment they try to express that same gut feeling it's suddenly less reliable. If you don't have some concept of the number of points a player will put up, how can you even be tiering him? If you don't have a concept of how many yards, touchdowns, etc, a player might put up, how can you have a concept of how many fantasy points he might score? You can do fine with just a representation in term of fantasy points without going to the lengths of yards, TDs, etc... but then you lose out on being able to convert between scoring systems. You also fail to put your instincts to the test of reality in seeing if the sum collection of your instincts is realistic.

 

[Mister CIA]

To me, projections are analogous to recipe's. Very useful to use someone else's the first time or two, but after that I'll do my own thing without all the measuring utensils.

Or to take the analogy in a different direction, I probably approach projections like Dave Kingman approached batting practice.

Also, as Gianmarco hit upon earlier, I too play primarily in dynasty leagues where projections are not very useful.

 

[by_the_sea_wannabe]

To me, projections are analogous to recipe's. Very useful to use someone else's the first time or two, but after that I'll do my own thing without all the measuring utensils.Or to take the analogy in a different direction, I probably approach projections like Dave Kingman approached batting practice.Also, as Gianmarco hit upon earlier, I too play primarily in dynasty leagues where projections are not very useful.

you are doing even more projecting in a dynasty league.

 

[Ysatnaf_Gnik]

I think Joe is right when he asserts that owners who do statistical analysis have themselves an advantage that others do not.

I disagree. I've won lots of $$$ in FBGs leagues without having to do this.

Can you help me understand more what you do here?Do you go into a draft with a numerical ranking for each position? For overall?J

I go into the draft with a sheet to just mark off players as they are drafted. I don't care what order they are in. After all the research done on players in fantasy I have an idea how they should be ranked. I don't need stats or even ranking on a piece of paper to tell me this. I've told others that I at least rank my players, but in reality I don't do it on the computer or by writing it down. I feel enough has been learned by the time of the draft this is not necessary.

In shallow leagues this is an ok strategy...It is obvious that you play in shallow 12 to 14 team Offense only leagues.....Try doing that in a 16-team 53-man roster Auction (Full IDP) league and see how far your strategy will take you......But then of course, you obviously do not play IDP (or Auction).The day you move on to the Complex leagues, you will understand why....

 

[Mister CIA]

To me, projections are analogous to recipe's. Very useful to use someone else's the first time or two, but after that I'll do my own thing without all the measuring utensils.Or to take the analogy in a different direction, I probably approach projections like Dave Kingman approached batting practice.Also, as Gianmarco hit upon earlier, I too play primarily in dynasty leagues where projections are not very useful.

you are doing even more projecting in a dynasty league.

I trudge through the forum here and watch video. If that makes me a projectinator, then you are 100% correct.Maybe what I'm trying to say here is that I do all my projections with integers.

 

[CalBear]

To me, projections are analogous to recipe's. Very useful to use someone else's the first time or two, but after that I'll do my own thing without all the measuring utensils.Or to take the analogy in a different direction, I probably approach projections like Dave Kingman approached batting practice.Also, as Gianmarco hit upon earlier, I too play primarily in dynasty leagues where projections are not very useful.

you are doing even more projecting in a dynasty league.

I trudge through the forum here and watch video. If that makes me a projectinator, then you are 100% correct.Maybe what I'm trying to say here is that I do all my projections with integers.

OK, do you take Vincent Jackson or Shonn Greene?

 

[Mister CIA]

To me, projections are analogous to recipe's. Very useful to use someone else's the first time or two, but after that I'll do my own thing without all the measuring utensils.Or to take the analogy in a different direction, I probably approach projections like Dave Kingman approached batting practice.Also, as Gianmarco hit upon earlier, I too play primarily in dynasty leagues where projections are not very useful.

you are doing even more projecting in a dynasty league.

I trudge through the forum here and watch video. If that makes me a projectinator, then you are 100% correct.Maybe what I'm trying to say here is that I do all my projections with integers.

OK, do you take Vincent Jackson or Shonn Greene?

They are already taken.

 

[Mister CIA]

To me, projections are analogous to recipe's. Very useful to use someone else's the first time or two, but after that I'll do my own thing without all the measuring utensils.Or to take the analogy in a different direction, I probably approach projections like Dave Kingman approached batting practice.Also, as Gianmarco hit upon earlier, I too play primarily in dynasty leagues where projections are not very useful.

you are doing even more projecting in a dynasty league.

I trudge through the forum here and watch video. If that makes me a projectinator, then you are 100% correct.Maybe what I'm trying to say here is that I do all my projections with integers.

OK, do you take Vincent Jackson or Shonn Greene?

Follow up question, how do quantify the Holy S### factor when watching some players and making projections? ... To use Calvin Johnson as an example, are spotting him an extra 50-75 yards this season?

 

[CalBear]

Follow up question, how do quantify the Holy S### factor when watching some players and making projections? ... To use Calvin Johnson as an example, are spotting him an extra 50-75 yards this season?

Looks like that's what the staff is doing. Johnson scored about what Derrick Mason did last year, and the staff is all expecting Johnson to have more yardage and TDs than last year, and Mason to have less.

 

[Joe Bryant]

I think Joe is right when he asserts that owners who do statistical analysis have themselves an advantage that others do not.

I disagree. I've won lots of $$$ in FBGs leagues without having to do this.

Can you help me understand more what you do here?

Do you go into a draft with a numerical ranking for each position? For overall?

J

I go into the draft with a sheet to just mark off players as they are drafted. I don't care what order they are in. After all the research done on players in fantasy I have an idea how they should be ranked. I don't need stats or even ranking on a piece of paper to tell me this. I've told others that I at least rank my players, but in reality I don't do it on the computer or by writing it down. I feel enough has been learned by the time of the draft this is not necessary.

That's cool. What I'm saying is that when you say you have an idea of how they should be ranked, you're doing rough projections. I think we're saying the same thing.J

 

[Mister CIA]

Follow up question, how do quantify the Holy S### factor when watching some players and making projections? ... To use Calvin Johnson as an example, are spotting him an extra 50-75 yards this season?

Looks like that's what the staff is doing. Johnson scored about what Derrick Mason did last year, and the staff is all expecting Johnson to have more yardage and TDs than last year, and Mason to have less.

I think you are making my point. Stuff = Stuff (+-)

 

[32 Counter Pass]

In response to the OP, if you are having success and fun with whatever method you are using to pick players. Then keep on keeping on.

For myself, I found my success dramatically increased once I started doing detailed projections.

 

[guderian]

In my mind projections serve two primary purposes:

1. They encourage a disciplined thought process. Most people break their projections down into sub-components (rushes, ypc, etc.). This encourages you to consider all of the factors that may affect a player's performance. This will also help expose flaws in your logic.

2. They allow you to quantify all of the above variables that impact a player's performance and to compare those across different styles and positions. If one player gets a lot of yards and few TDs and another player does the opposite how else do you quantify their relative value?

Are they absolutely necessary? No. Can you win your league without doing this? Yes. However, the end results of this hobby are statistics, so why would you want to prepare without conforming to this same framework?

 

[moleculo]

I have been playing FF for about 8 years now, and I have yet to ever do a single set of projections. I honestly don't think the value gained from doing them is worth the amount of time it takes.

A majority of the projections I see from people follow some type of pattern like this....

Player X (a WR) had these stats this past year.... Well he is now in his 3rd year and has played with his QB for 2 straight years and the offense is improving, so his numbers increase about 15%.

The point being that it seems to me most people look at last years stats, try to quantify a couple different variables, and apply those variables to last years stats. Very rarely do I see anyone projecting stats that are +/- more than about 15% from the previous years stats.

Take Calvin Johnson for example. The four staffers have him at....

Dodds - 75/1125/7

Henry - 78/1221/9

Wood - 77/1155/7

Tremblay - 73/1047/6

Looks to me like a bunch of people sticking to a status quo. Those are basically his numbers last season had he played a full 16 game.

I understand projections are valuable in a sense in examining an offense and seeing where their is room for improvement and where there is not. I just do not see the value in trying to figure out whether Jason Snelling will have 20 carries or 80 carries this year. I also don't see the value of doing projections that for the most part are just slight variations of last years stats, when we know there is such a high turnover rate in fantasy.

what do you think the impact on Staffords #'s will be, assuming Calvin plays a full season? How can you rationally rank Stafford without considering Calvin being there the whole season?Projections are important for a couple of reasons:

[*]understand impact of player X on player Y - impact of Calvin on Stafford, impact of Brandon Marshall on Ricky Williams, impact of no Brandon Marshall on Orton, impact of LT on Shonn Greene, impact of Donovan McNabb on Chris Cooley/Fred Davis...it's not all cut and paste "change last years stats by +/- 15%". There's a ton of turnover every year, and projections are a method of rationally determining player value.

[*]Projections vs rankings: projections give you a way to leverage research/opinion set across multiple league formats. I play on one league w/ 0.5 PPR for WR/TE only, one league w/ 1 PPR and 2PPR for TE's one league with no PPR but return yards...all leagues in different sizes and formats. projections gives me a way to determine value for a player in multiple formats.

[*]why do my own projections? because ultimately, it's my draft. It's my bias that I'm running with. When all is said and done, I want to live or die based on my opinions. Every year I've relied on FBG only projections, downloaded straight from here, I've missed the playoffs. Every year I do my own projections, I make the playoffs, so I stand by my success.

During a draft, I will go off sheet and go by gut - I'll spend hours developing my projections only to ignore them in crunch time. I know that they are one of many tools at my disposal. I can and will draft by gut too, just like many others. But, like others have echoed, I feel that the effort of making projections itself has led me to better understand the entire field of players. At the end of the day, the time spend tweaking and evaluating projections is what helps you really learn about what to expect in the upcoming year.

 

[moleculo]

by the column ranking on the right that says "Overall use for top 50-60".....

And that's more accurate than projections in what way?

in addition to who you already have on your roster, who you think will make it back to you, etc.........

You have the 1.01 and you take Peterson. Now it's the 2.12/3.01 turn. You've got RBs Grant, Mendenhall, Benson, Moreno out there, as well as WRs Colston, Smith (CAR), V.Jackson, and QB Rivers. Do you go WR-WR? WR-RB? RB-RB? WR-QB? If you don't have projections underlying your rankings, at best you're just guessing.

you're guessing even if you have projections. Your guesses will be more rational and (hopefully) you can more accurately describe why you are making one guess over another, and you can even quantify the decision, but ultimately it is a guess.

 

[senor peso 2006]

ultimately the most important factor to determine if someone should do their own projects depends on the individual. If you are going to spend the time, put the work in and have the ability to do critical anaylisis, you will get a quality product and a useful tool to do your player rankings. I personally don't do my own stat projections, I pay people like Joe to do that. I'll factor his and others stats, VBD, news, training camp performance, player/coach movements in the off season and so to build my player rankings.

I could do my own stat projections, but I'd be supprised that they would be any better than anyone else's numbers. My time is best used pulling as much data together as I can handle and build a weighted decision off multiple sorcues of info. This is a hobby for most of us and whatever works for us in the league/s that we are in is the method to be used.

 

[vfourmax]

I am a newby compared to many here as I am entering my 4th season playing fantasy football. And believe me I am learning each year more to what is involved in putting together a championship capable team! I use a lot of different sources as far as compiling rankings or projections to aid in choosing my teams on draft day. I find that as I delve even deeper and more involved in this hobby that projections become even a more important tool as an added resource to help me put together the best team possible as far as the draft is concerned.

Granted I do not care how much research, number crunching or even trying to use a crystal ball there is no way to predict injuries or when a player will have a bust out game or just be off on a particuliar day and that applies to both sides of the ball. A QB change can greatly affect a wide reciever both in chemistry and in the QB's ability to put the ball where it needs to be the same as the recievers ability to make that ball the Qb throws to be a completion rather than off the fingertips incompletion. Do you not think that Mc Nabb will have an effect on the Redskins recievers production over Jason Campbell or Favre does not affect the Vikings receivers worth in FF?

Even look at team defenses, both the Steelers and da Bears last season suffered greatly because of key injuries to key personel and even though those defenses suffered below expectations last year this years projections or rankings will again take into account those members being back healthy.

It is not all about numbers from previous seasons allthough those numbers do come into play as to what a players talents and abilities at the NFL level have shown in what productivity they are capable of at this level. But in the case of the production levels of like a Wes Welker for the coming year even with his stellar numbers from previous seasons there is a very big question at this point as to what his performance level or durability may be coming off the knee surgery from last year and yes that question mark is affecting both his rankings and his projections for the upcoming year.

I have to agree that projections, past performances and team situations all play a part in who you choose to draft on your team. Even a teams schedule can have a lot of influence as if one running back plays a majority of teams that are known for having a soft running game defense then that must be taken into account in perhaps choosing him over a different similiar skilled running back that faces a schedule that includes more defenses that are known for shutting down the run and limiting a running backs ability to gain a lot of yards.

If you do not use that type of information available then you might as well choose Clinton Portis over Chris Johnson or Hasselback over Drew Brees after all those that do not consider numbers, projections or team situations making their choices then they will just draft their team at random right.

I think that many projections take all of these variances into account at some level and we all use this information to try to put together the most capable team possible, some just more than others.

 

[DropKick]

I don't want to recreate the wheel and I don't have lots of time. I'll start with a good set of rankings and adjust them based on my intuition and the "eyeball" test. For whatever reason - and it is not analytical - there are players I like more than others. There are guys I want on my team and I may take them even if there is a higher ranked guy on the board. I don't play big stakes and want to be able to root for "my guys". After all, it is fantasy.

Since I only play in keeper leagues, many players are already off the board. I'm drafting on a combination of draft position, team need, player age and long term potential. Although there is some degree of "projection" here... it isn't the time consuming "x" number of yards and "n" scores. Too often, I find these to be just wild guesses, especially if you include out years.

I've done very well in the few leagues I play in... partly due to a contrarian approach. For years, everyone subscribed to the stud RB theory even though the scoring system was favorable to WRs. I was able to build a core of excellent receivers while other teams "reached" for RBs ahead of me. This "advantage" has largely disappeared in recent years as the use of committees has risen.

For the time I can spend on FF, I focus on team management. I like to mock our rookie drafts. What are other team's needs? Who can I sell high? Who can I buy low? Who do I keep? Who can I afford to move for draft position?