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Exploit/Avoid Week 1...You drafted Studs, the real challenge is the RB2/WR3/Flex spots for most folks (1 Viewer)

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
I love the new boards and the FBG throwing down the gauntlet they ain't going nowhere!

I love the Shark pool and walking the tightrope in order to get my thoughts out and bounce ideas off the walls and minds of all of you, I thank you sincerely.

I love the energy this place starts to build as we make the turn to Opening Night!


-Let's help each other up the mountain, I've won more than my fair share over the years and so have most of you so don't get agitated when players we overlooked suddenly vault. Get on the train and open up the notebooks so we aren't 2 steps behind next off season. MoP example is I got burned BAD on Trey Sermon last year...I could fight and argue about Elijah Mitchell or I can just point to his last 5 regular season games and receiving 20+ carries in all 5 of them. I can continue to doubt Elijah and write all sorts of narratives and arcs or I can accept and make moves based on what I now know from the coaches and most beat writers in San Fran. This is just a small example, there's a bunch.

Using what I am asking, let's all work together in finding guys that are not going to be Auto-Starts.

Please tell us if we are talking Dynasty or Redraft because most folks should not be starting QBs, RBs/WRs or TEs that are not in the Top 20-25 preseason at their position going into Week 1.

-WRs that typically are drafted in the 7th-8th round or later, RBs that were usually taken as the RB3/Flex/spot starter, QBs that might not be the starter but have some easy match ups. I'll throw one out there, Jared Goff has a legitimate shot at cracking the Top 12 Week 1 vs Philly, you can wholeheartedly disagree but it looks like a potentially high scoring game to me.

The Shark pool needs to lead the way on the Exploit/Avoid, not MoP, it belongs to you all.

I will do my best to answer all questions, I would ask you kindly to please tell us who you think you want to start and why . When you post to answer, feel free to share things like Slot WR(SWR) vs Slot DB/Nickel DB and break it down for us. We need to hear about home vs road like Miami is hot/humid and a major advantage at 1:00 in September in South Florida.

-When you disapprove of what someone is posting or have an entirely different POV, I would ask you to overlook and always seek clarity because almost everyone I come across in here even in the heat of a debate can take a strep back and reset the table/post. I believe in the heartbeat of this place and we still have a lot of helpful folks that are always ready to give their opinion as long as we don't attack and keep an open mind.

Think of a perfect circle which last time I checked was 360 degrees(MoP-Math...NO!!!) but what is interesting about a circle is no matter where you are standing along the circle you are an equal distance from the center or what is sometimes referred to as the radius and even if you are at the top of the circle with 85% of the rest or sometimes like MoP and standing at the bottom with the other 15%, it's still the same distance into the middle for the pot of gold.

I'll have some players in mind with the next post or as the week and injury news unfolds but I wanted to get this started and find out which players you all are hem'n and haw'n on so I can focus on what matters. You don't need to read about Taylor, Cook, Adams and Hill because those are all auto starts. Focus on those back end slots you want to make front line slots like WR3 and RB3/Flex, that's where you separate the have and have nots IMHO.

Cheers!
 
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Superflex dynasty. I like Mariota to finish week 1 top 5. Pairing with Cousins over Tannehill. I expect Ridder at some point later in the season, but Mariota will come out strong. I see 12 for 18 (238 yds) with two passing td's and 6 carries for 42 yds and another td. That'd be 27 points in my league.
 
RB18-Travis Etienne, in 12 team leagues he is firmly drafted as a starting RB2...well now you gotta actually wheel him out and he has no track record, this is almost like starting a rookie blind and I personally would not want to be in this specific situation going into Week 1 but maybe some of you feel very different.
🤷‍♂️

What say you?
 
Superflex dynasty. I like Mariota to finish week 1 top 5. Pairing with Cousins over Tannehill. I expect Ridder at some point later in the season, but Mariota will come out strong. I see 12 for 18 (238 yds) with two passing td's and 6 carries for 42 yds and another td. That'd be 27 points in my league.
Aren't they playin the Saints week 1? have you checked out the Pass Defense by the Saints and then you add in CoP RBs like Patterson who is not built to handle the lead back duties, how are the Saints going to be fooled into giving up a lot thru the air?

I'm not coming down on you, great find and certainly not someone I had on my radar but I can understand in a Superflex we are talking about something a little different. I could make a case that Mariota has a horrible Week 1 and the Ridder/Mariota QB controversy starts before we even get to Week 2.

I'd like to hear what others are thinking but I have the Saints penciled in as a fairly strong pass defense and not easy to rack FF points on.

-Saints gave up 20 TDs thru the air last year, that's 3rd best in the NFL and they were just removed from Brees retiring and Winston going down for the season, they still held their own.

Just sharing my POV, I could be out in left field but my research points to a different outcome right now.

Cheers War, thanks for posting up
 
RB18-Travis Etienne, in 12 team leagues he is firmly drafted as a starting RB2...well now you gotta actually wheel him out and he has no track record, this is almost like starting a rookie blind and I personally would not want to be in this specific situation going into Week 1 but maybe some of you feel very different.
🤷‍♂️

What say you?
I think he’ll be serviceable in PPR week 1.

Looks like Robinson will be active, but an Achilles injury in week 16 makes me think they won’t hammer him with a full workload.

Calling my shot. Planting my flag.

8 for 75 and a TD rushing.
5 for 33 and a TD receiving.
 
WR42-Chris Godwin...they say he is clear to play from what I am reading. I love his tenacity and ability to get open, felt he took a cheap shot on the ACL but I don't want to start a holy war about it...just saying he might have some scores to settle.

Dallas is not easy but I think they will want to try and shut down Mike Evans first and Godwin could take a couple drives to get his sea legs back.
 
IRB18-Travis Etienne, in 12 team leagues he is firmly drafted as a starting RB2...well now you gotta actually wheel him out and he has no track record, this is almost like starting a rookie blind and I personally would not want to be in this specific situation going into Week 1 but maybe some of you feel very different.
🤷‍♂️

What say you?
If you own him in redraft, you probably spent a 3rd rounder or early 4th rounder on him. Hard to sit him if you believed in him enough to take him this early.

I drafted Aiyuk in the 8th as WR 4 (flex) in one FBG league but leary of firing him up week 1. Might roll with Damian Harris in the flex. 70 yards, a TD and a couple catches.
 
QB18-Trevor Lawrence...opens the season vs the Commandos and last year they gave up the most passing TDs of any team in the NFL. I heard Chase is likely out week 1 and maybe a little longer. Do they have a pass rush?

WR35 Christian Kirk...in 12 team leagues he is a borderline auto start as a WR3/Flex but I think he could vault into high WR2/low end WR1 territory this week if things go right for the Jags. This is a pretty good match up and early in the season, weather should not be a factor.

Marino '84-Week 1? Road trip by Miami and Marino lit them up for over 300 yds and 5 TDs as I recall...now that was 38 years ago and none of those players will be on the field this Sunday but it's fun to reminisce...if you liked Marino of course.
 
IRB18-Travis Etienne, in 12 team leagues he is firmly drafted as a starting RB2...well now you gotta actually wheel him out and he has no track record, this is almost like starting a rookie blind and I personally would not want to be in this specific situation going into Week 1 but maybe some of you feel very different.
🤷‍♂️

What say you?
If you own him in redraft, you probably spent a 3rd rounder or early 4th rounder on him. Hard to sit him if you believed in him enough to take him this early.

I drafted Aiyuk in the 8th as WR 4 (flex) in one FBG league but leary of firing him up week 1. Might roll with Damian Harris in the flex. 70 yards, a TD and a couple catches.
Is it at all possible under any circumstances in Week 1 that Kenyan Drake, recent Ravens addition and possible RB1 for them as Gus is down and Dobbins is potentially not ready? Is it possible Drake might outscore Etienne in Week 1? I don't think it's a strong outcome but it's worth discussing as to where the base line is here for Travis in Jax. As a Trevor investor in redrafts, I hope Etienne helps him move the sticks all season long.

I agree if you drafted him you probably don't have 2nd thoughts but to many of us that passed on him in the 3rd round, this feels like even more reason to pass as I don't think I could slide him into my starting line up.

Would you run to the podium in DFS and put him in your starting line up when you can literally have anyone? That's what I am using as a base line here fyi
 
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WR42-Chris Godwin...they say he is clear to play from what I am reading. I love his tenacity and ability to get open, felt he took a cheap shot on the ACL but I don't want to start a holy war about it...just saying he might have some scores to settle.

Dallas is not easy but I think they will want to try and shut down Mike Evans first and Godwin could take a couple drives to get his sea legs back.
I agree. They are going to be throwing some quick balls because Brady likes to AND Dallas will be rushing their LBs trying to get to Brady.

ACLs are always odd to me. Some WRs bounce right back.

Not necessarily part of this thread. But I virtually stated the same thing in the 3 things thread. Godwin could be an absolute steal in mid to late rounds where he is being drafted.

Calling my shot. Planting my flag.

8 catches. 111 yards. Two TDs.
 
RB18-Travis Etienne, in 12 team leagues he is firmly drafted as a starting RB2...well now you gotta actually wheel him out and he has no track record, this is almost like starting a rookie blind and I personally would not want to be in this specific situation going into Week 1 but maybe some of you feel very different.
🤷‍♂️

What say you?
Starting him at my RB3 spot over Edmonds. Not sure now much of a workload ETN will get over Robinson, but willing to take that chance in week 1.
 
IRB18-Travis Etienne, in 12 team leagues he is firmly drafted as a starting RB2...well now you gotta actually wheel him out and he has no track record, this is almost like starting a rookie blind and I personally would not want to be in this specific situation going into Week 1 but maybe some of you feel very different.
🤷‍♂️

What say you?
If you own him in redraft, you probably spent a 3rd rounder or early 4th rounder on him. Hard to sit him if you believed in him enough to take him this early.

I drafted Aiyuk in the 8th as WR 4 (flex) in one FBG league but leary of firing him up week 1. Might roll with Damian Harris in the flex. 70 yards, a TD and a couple catches.
Is it at all possible under any circumstances in Week 1 that Kenyan Drake, recent Ravens addition and possible RB1 for them as Gus is down and Dobbins is potentially not ready?

I agree if you drafted him you probably don't have 2nd thoughts but to many of us that passed on him in the 3rd round, this feels like even more reason to pass as I don't think I could slide him into my starting line up.

Would you run to the podium in DFS and put him in your starting line up when you can literally have anyone? That's what I am using as a base line here fyi
Got cha. Should have read with a little more purpose

No, I wouldn't run up to podiam to put ETN in a DFS line-up

I would sprint up and put Gabe Davis in my line-up though. I think the game will be a shoot out and expect at least one longer TD from Davis.
 
RB18-Travis Etienne, in 12 team leagues he is firmly drafted as a starting RB2...well now you gotta actually wheel him out and he has no track record, this is almost like starting a rookie blind and I personally would not want to be in this specific situation going into Week 1 but maybe some of you feel very different.
🤷‍♂️

What say you?
Starting him at my RB3 spot over Edmonds. Not sure now much of a workload ETN will get over Robinson, but willing to take that chance in week 1.
Between those 2 options, you are going to take the guy who has never had an official touch in the NFL vs a guy that we really don't know exactly what the plan is yet, we just think he might see some touches?

You can check out the Edmonds thread, I don't want to repost it for the 3rd time but there are signs that point to Edmonds possibly being in the Austin Ekeler role in LAC last year. Frank Smith the OC was their RGC which stand for Running Game Coordinator, I've got to encourage the use of the abbreviation moving forward but I doubt many actually have that title. And he was the OL coach and he was the TE coach for 2-3 years in LVR/Oak prior to that working alongside Darren Waller, this guy knows what the bleep he is doing and knows why he is here in Miami...because we traditionally have stunk running the football for the better part of 40-50 years after Csonka, Morris and Kiick were long retired.

That said Zamboni, i would understand why you plug in Eitenne and you might as well gamble since you chose him for a reason. If Chase proves to be valuable you can switch them up the next week. The Patriots are never a pushover trying to run the football. Excellent example of what a lot of folks are going to have to decide in Week 1.
 
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RB18-Travis Etienne, in 12 team leagues he is firmly drafted as a starting RB2...well now you gotta actually wheel him out and he has no track record, this is almost like starting a rookie blind and I personally would not want to be in this specific situation going into Week 1 but maybe some of you feel very different.
🤷‍♂️

What say you?
Starting him at my RB3 spot over Edmonds. Not sure now much of a workload ETN will get over Robinson, but willing to take that chance in week 1.
Between those 2 options, you are going to take the guy who has never had an official touch in the NFL vs a guy that we really don't know exactly what the plan is yet, we just think he might see some touches.

You can check out the Edmonds thread, I don't want to repost it for the 3rd time but there are signs that point to Edmonds possibly being in the Austin Ekeler role in LAC last year. Frank Smith the OC was their RGC which stand for Running Game Coordinator, I've got to encourage the use of the abbreviation moving forward but I doubt many actually have that title. And he was the OL coach and he was the TE coach for 2-3 years in LVR/Oak prior to that working alongside Darren Waller, this guy knows what the bleep he is doing and knows why he is here in Miami...because we traditionally have stunk running the football for the better part of 40-50 years after Csonka, Morris and Kiick were long retired.

That said Zamboni, i would understand why you plug in Eitenne and you might as well gamble since you chose him for a reason. If Chase proves to be valuable you can switch them up the next week. The Patriots are never a pushover trying to run the football. Excellent example of what a lot of folks are going to have to decide in Week 1.
I think it’s as much about the Pats defense, as you say, to be wary about Edmonds. But yeah it’s a tough call and one I’ll be sweating out until 1pm on Sunday.
 
Week 1 I don’t mess around. I start my best players regardless of matchup.

Redraft especially, barring injury. I start players in the order I drafted them.

IMO week 1 should be everyone’s easiest lineup calls.
I generally agree but there are some players who are really close. Guys you ranked close going into the draft, had in the same tier, etc. For example in ppr, I am choosing between AJ Dillon and Chase Edmonds for my RB2. They are ranked RB22 and RB23 on Fantasy Pros for the week. I will probably flip back and forth all week on that one.
 
I heard Chase is likely out week 1 and maybe a little longer.
You might wanna reword this so as not to spook those who have Jamarr Chase or Chase Edmonds.
I understand but it is in the context of Washington and I also reference the pass rush.

Chase Young, think most should read it that way.
Many people skim posts and don’t have the context at front of mind. I did a double take when I saw that.

As hard as it is to realize when you put a lot of effort into writing a post, most people don’t read with as much thoroughness as we write. Because of that, it’s always better to err on the side of clarity.
 
Superflex dynasty. I like Mariota to finish week 1 top 5. Pairing with Cousins over Tannehill. I expect Ridder at some point later in the season, but Mariota will come out strong. I see 12 for 18 (238 yds) with two passing td's and 6 carries for 42 yds and another td. That'd be 27 points in my league.
Aren't they playin the Saints week 1? have you checked out the Pass Defense by the Saints and then you add in CoP RBs like Patterson who is not built to handle the lead back duties, how are the Saints going to be fooled into giving up a lot thru the air?

I'm not coming down on you, great find and certainly not someone I had on my radar but I can understand in a Superflex we are talking about something a little different. I could make a case that Mariota has a horrible Week 1 and the Ridder/Mariota QB controversy starts before we even get to Week 2.

I'd like to hear what others are thinking but I have the Saints penciled in as a fairly strong pass defense and not easy to rack FF points on.

-Saints gave up 20 TDs thru the air last year, that's 3rd best in the NFL and they were just removed from Brees retiring and Winston going down for the season, they still held their own.

Just sharing my POV, I could be out in left field but my research points to a different outcome right now.

Cheers War, thanks for posting up
Thanks MOP. Wasn't considering the Saint's pass D. I do expect a couple short fields to make it easier for Mariota (Winston). Saving grace, I do have Ridder there and from what I've seen preseason, I almost hope Mariota does crap the bed.
 
RB18-Travis Etienne, in 12 team leagues he is firmly drafted as a starting RB2...well now you gotta actually wheel him out and he has no track record, this is almost like starting a rookie blind and I personally would not want to be in this specific situation going into Week 1 but maybe some of you feel very different.
🤷‍♂️

What say you?
Whoever took him probably took him first overall. No telling how long he'll last (fluke or trend). I'd start him if I had him.
 
Lazard Doubtful is the current word


Would like the health status of both rookies and would like to see who gets the 1st team reps this week.
 
RB18-Travis Etienne, in 12 team leagues he is firmly drafted as a starting RB2...well now you gotta actually wheel him out and he has no track record, this is almost like starting a rookie blind and I personally would not want to be in this specific situation going into Week 1 but maybe some of you feel very different.
🤷‍♂️

What say you?
avoid Darrell Mooney, wr, CHI @ SF

have a feeling da bears will get skunked in this one.
I guarantee no one will start Darrell Mooney this week
 
Here are the flex / backups that I will be ruminating to start or sit this week. I own most of them on more than one team:

Damien Harris
Melvin Gordon
James Robinson
James Cook
Tony Pollard
Kareem Hunt
Kadarius Toney
Nico Collins
Rondale Moore
Elijah Moore
George Pickens
 
RB18-Travis Etienne, in 12 team leagues he is firmly drafted as a starting RB2...well now you gotta actually wheel him out and he has no track record, this is almost like starting a rookie blind and I personally would not want to be in this specific situation going into Week 1 but maybe some of you feel very different.
🤷‍♂️

What say you?
If you play in a redraft and ETN is not in your starting lineup, you are insane! Unless you drafted RB, RB, RB, RB, he is a weekly starter for you. I fully understand having to decide in a keeper or dynasty, but in a standard redraft, what is the latest possible round he would've fallen to?
 
WR 78 Sammy Watkins-Green Bay

Randal Cobb is always getting hyped, Rodgers wanted him back and he was going to help the offense a lot. 28/375/5TDs a year ago, he's not a real option, more like a spare part.
Lazard could also miss the game and that would put some immediate pressure on the Rookie WR pair to perform quicker than many thought.

You are left withy Watkins who I'm not a fan of because he can never finish a game or string along several good games so even when he decides to go off you never know it's coming...this week might be different. Rodgers gives me pause.

Sammy Watkins stats are even worse the last couple seasons but somebody has to run routes over there.

He's an interesting DFS play if nothing else.
 
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RB18-Travis Etienne, in 12 team leagues he is firmly drafted as a starting RB2...well now you gotta actually wheel him out and he has no track record, this is almost like starting a rookie blind and I personally would not want to be in this specific situation going into Week 1 but maybe some of you feel very different.
🤷‍♂️

What say you?
If you play in a redraft and ETN is not in your starting lineup, you are insane! Unless you drafted RB, RB, RB, RB, he is a weekly starter for you. I fully understand having to decide in a keeper or dynasty, but in a standard redraft, what is the latest possible round he would've fallen to?
Some folks drafted earlier than others, the point is now you have to start a RB that has never taken a meaningful NFL snap and you are asking him to produce immediately.
It could happen for sure, I'm just not 100% on that and if I had other options i might not play Etienne right out of the shoot Week 1until I see the JAX Offense in full swing.
 
WR 78 Sammy Watkins-Green Bay

Randal Cobb is always getting hyped, Rodgers wanted him back and he was going to help the offense a lot. 28/375/5TDs a year ago, he's not a real option, more like a spare part.
Lazard could also miss the game and that would put some immediate pressure on the Rookie WR pair to perform quicker than many thought.

You are left withy Watkins who I'm not a fan of because he can never finish a game or string along several good games so even when he decides to go off you never know it's coming...this week might be different. Rodgers gives me pause.

Sammy Watkins stats are even worse the last couple seasons but somebody ahs to run routes over there.

He's an interesting DFS play if nothing else.

I think that's how I would phrase Sammy here, interesting deep flyer play.
 
RB18-Travis Etienne, in 12 team leagues he is firmly drafted as a starting RB2...well now you gotta actually wheel him out and he has no track record, this is almost like starting a rookie blind and I personally would not want to be in this specific situation going into Week 1 but maybe some of you feel very different.
🤷‍♂️

What say you?
I think he’ll be serviceable in PPR week 1.

Looks like Robinson will be active, but an Achilles injury in week 16 makes me think they won’t hammer him with a full workload.

Calling my shot. Planting my flag.

8 for 75 and a TD rushing.
5 for 33 and a TD receiving.
Chubby
 
RB18-Travis Etienne, in 12 team leagues he is firmly drafted as a starting RB2...well now you gotta actually wheel him out and he has no track record, this is almost like starting a rookie blind and I personally would not want to be in this specific situation going into Week 1 but maybe some of you feel very different.
🤷‍♂️

What say you?
If you play in a redraft and ETN is not in your starting lineup, you are insane! Unless you drafted RB, RB, RB, RB, he is a weekly starter for you. I fully understand having to decide in a keeper or dynasty, but in a standard redraft, what is the latest possible round he would've fallen to?
Some folks drafted earlier than others, the point is now you have to start a RB that has never taken a meaningful NFL snap and you are asking him to produce immediately.
It could happen for sure, I'm just not 100% on that and if I had other options i might not play Etienne right out of the shoot Week 1until I see the JAX Offense in full swing.
I am lost. I don't understand your hesitancy. Do you think he is still hurt? Last year, Najee went in the 2nd round as a rookie in most redrafts. Did anyone consider benching him because he had yet to take a meaningful snap? ETN is essentially just a rookie, and he and Najee were drafted back-to-back in 2021.
 
If you play in a redraft and ETN is not in your starting lineup, you are insane! Unless you drafted RB, RB, RB, RB, he is a weekly starter for you. I fully understand having to decide in a keeper or dynasty, but in a standard redraft, what is the latest possible round he would've fallen to?
Yeah one of those situations where if you aren’t starting him, why did you even draft him?
 
some of the players I've drafted that I'll be starting.
Chase Edmonds should have himself a game here but I'm torn between him a George Pickens at FLEX. Miami usually beats the snot out of NE here in south florida. the heat is just too much for those not used to it - kind of like teams going Denver to play in the altitude. But Pickens can thrive against Cincy.
Elijah Moore - WR 2 - oh it's Joe Flacco at QB you say? last time he played them ( last season), EM went off - 8-141-1td. he's going to torch the Ravens secondary.
Trevor Lawrence - please, the Commandos are going to stop Peyton Manning v2.0??? nope.
I. Likely - he's not going to be on the bench with pom-poms cheering on Mark Andrews.
Colts' defense - I like Houston this year, their offense is going to be much improved. But the Colts are an 8 point road favorite. That's an astonishing number to start the season. -8 on the road. All signs point to a Texans bloodbath here.

I drafted Kadarius Toney but I'm getting nervous about it. have to sit him week 1, but Nico Collins is on the waiver wire and you just get the feeling that he's to be the one of the waiver wire darlings next week whereas Toney really needs to prove himself. Wait till Sunday and you might've missed out on what is likely going to be a stellar year for Collins. Toney can boom here, but it's a wait-n-see approach.
Darrell Henderson is going to have some real value week 1 - Cam Akers, by all accounts from insiders and those watching practices, can't cut properly on his 'bad' foot - he's a 1-cut and go RB at this point , cutting only on his good foot, and running in mud. Notice you have not heard one reporter one pundit one insinder claim he's looking 'spectacular' or he's the 'chalk' or whatever phrases these kiddies use today. I doubt McVay uses him more than a spot player here in week 1. DH is a sneaky good play for a boat load of recs out of the backfield, as well as goal-line work. Bills are a -2.5 favorite on the road at the place they're raising the SB banner , on opening night when the whole world is watching. What does that mean? McVay better have the Rams running the ball because that Bills offense can get up on them in a NY minute. Rams could very well get embarrassed in this tilt. This game can be over before halftime,.How do you slow that down? run the damn ball. Who is the only capable RB to do that on the Rams' roster? DH.
Watching the Eagles in preseason and by listening to camp reports, D. Smith is uncoverable and should light-up the lousy Detroit secondary in a game the Eagles are a 4pt road favorite. Eagles look poised to pass the ball down opposing teams throats. AJ Brown is more of a decoy taking pressure off of DS. Smith will draw the 2nd CB in the defense and should flat-out abuse them.
 
Here are the flex / backups that I will be ruminating to start or sit this week. I own most of them on more than one team:

Damien Harris - no

My leans on your list

Don't really disagree. Harris will get plenty of volume this season, but the Miami run D is pretty solid, no?

I expect Miami to play great and Harris to have limited high leverage opportunities.

Yep, and Miami in September is pretty hot, if I recall correctly.
 
Here are the flex / backups that I will be ruminating to start or sit this week. I own most of them on more than one team:

Damien Harris - no
Melvin Gordon - no
James Robinson - no
James Cook - no
Tony Pollard - yes
Kareem Hunt - no
Kadarius Toney - yes
Nico Collins - yes
Rondale Moore - yes
Elijah Moore - yes
George Pickens - yes

My leans on your list
Kareem Hunt looks like a strong play to me. Carolina D will have their hands full trying to contain Cleveland’s running attack.
 
I generally agree but there are some players who are really close. Guys you ranked close going into the draft, had in the same tier, etc. For example in ppr, I am choosing between AJ Dillon and Chase Edmonds for my RB2. They are ranked RB22 and RB23 on Fantasy Pros for the week. I will probably flip back and forth all week on that one.
I could see it being challenging for zero RB teams as well.

Which is just one more reason I don’t employ that strategy.

I have a couple of tough calls. AJ Dillon vs Stevenson vs Pollard in one league, Gabe Davis vs Brandon Aiyuk in another.

In those cases I’m going Dillon in one and Davis in the other, because they have the most clarity - I’m gonna wait and see how Stevenson & Aiyuk do before trusting them outside of BYE weeks.

But for week one I’m lucky to have a pretty clear set of lineups.
 
Here are the flex / backups that I will be ruminating to start or sit this week. I own most of them on more than one team:

Damien Harris - no
Melvin Gordon - no
James Robinson - no
James Cook - no
Tony Pollard - yes
Kareem Hunt - no
Kadarius Toney - yes
Nico Collins - yes
Rondale Moore - yes
Elijah Moore - yes
George Pickens - yes

My leans on your list
Kareem Hunt looks like a strong play to me. Carolina D will have their hands full trying to contain Cleveland’s running attack.

Yeah, I think Hunt is a strong flex play all year barring injury.
 

I have a couple of tough calls. AJ Dillon vs Stevenson vs Pollard in one league, Gabe Davis vs Brandon Aiyuk in another.

In those cases I’m going Dillon in one and Davis in the other, because they have the most clarity - I’m gonna wait and see how Stevenson & Aiyuk do before trusting them outside of BYE weeks.

But for week one I’m lucky to have a pretty clear set of lineups.

I agree with both plays here.
 
R. Penny makes me nervous w Russell Wilson coming back to take on his old team. Feels like I'm gambling on a TD plunge to make his play worth it.

I really want to play Bateman or E. Moore over Jeudy, but for same reason above just feels like Wilson shows out against Seattle to prove a point.
 
WR 78 Sammy Watkins-Green Bay

Randal Cobb is always getting hyped, Rodgers wanted him back and he was going to help the offense a lot. 28/375/5TDs a year ago, he's not a real option, more like a spare part.
Lazard could also miss the game and that would put some immediate pressure on the Rookie WR pair to perform quicker than many thought.

You are left withy Watkins who I'm not a fan of because he can never finish a game or string along several good games so even when he decides to go off you never know it's coming...this week might be different. Rodgers gives me pause.

Sammy Watkins stats are even worse the last couple seasons but somebody has to run routes over there.

He's an interesting DFS play if nothing else.
He does have a history of blowing up early and then disappearing until the playoffs
 
Week 1 I don’t mess around. I start my best players regardless of matchup.

Redraft especially, barring injury. I start players in the order I drafted them.

IMO week 1 should be everyone’s easiest lineup calls.

Generally yes, but there are some exceptions where a full season situation might depress a player’s ADP below their Week 1 ranking.

For example, many likely drafted Antonio Gibson as an RB3 because of what might be happening when Robinson returns, but he’ll be ranked in solid RB2 territory this week
 
If you look at last season you can easily see that Washington was one of the weaker Secondary units and you can put Baltimore, Atlanta and Detroit in that bottom 5 of pass defenses. I believe Detroit will be much improved and I wish I could say with confidence that Baltimore won't be a pushover but I haven't seen them play much this year and don't know what they've done to improve that part of the team. Lamar Jackson will cover up a lot of problems if they can keep him healthy.

This why I think Jacksonville and the Lawrence-Kirk-MarvJones trio plus you can put in Etienne since his big asset from what I gather is in the passing game.
Winston and the Saints should have a pretty good time visiting Atlanta and I don't see that being very close but Week 1. Michael Thomas was not drafted typically in the first 20 off the board, maybe I'm a little off but he looks like a potential Top 12 play Week 1. Certainly Top 15-20 which makes him a solid WR2 and maybe a WR3 if you got him at a discount. The rookie WR52-Olave could also see a breakout as a rookie in Week 1, certainly a candidate to come out strong.

Philly Air Raid in theory should be explosive Week 1 however Detroit is much improved and I think they will show some of that immediately this week. Philly might win the game but I think it's a lot closer than some might believe.

Ravens should be able to exploit the Jets Pass Defense although they also have poured in resources and might look a little different but I am interested in Bateman's progression.
 
Philly Air Raid in theory should be explosive Week 1 however Detroit is much improved and I think they will show some of that immediately this week. Philly might win the game but I think it's a lot closer than some might believe.
I'm not making any assumptions about what's going to happen in that game. Over the years the Eagles have lost a few games to the Lions that they had no business losing.
 

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