Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
Anyone know if FD is doing this again in 2015? I missed it last year and want to give it a shot this year I think.
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Fanduel survivor (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Tennessee_ATO
- Start date
AnchorDrops
Footballguy
I hope they run them this year. Although the $5 and $25 survivors overlayed heavily last year. They are part of the FanDuel WFFC, so I imagine they will be announced when the details for the WFFC Live Final is announced.
Last year there were three entry levels to the survivors...$5, $25 and $200 with prize pools of $100K, $200K and $300K respectively. They each started a week apart starting with week 2 of the season.
The landing pages for last year's survivors are still active if you want to check out the format and prize structure.
www.fanduel.com/100k-survivor
www.fanduel.com/200k-survivor
www.fanduel.com/300k-survivor
The landing page for this year's WFFC is www.fanduel.com/wffc
Last year there were three entry levels to the survivors...$5, $25 and $200 with prize pools of $100K, $200K and $300K respectively. They each started a week apart starting with week 2 of the season.
The landing pages for last year's survivors are still active if you want to check out the format and prize structure.
www.fanduel.com/100k-survivor
www.fanduel.com/200k-survivor
www.fanduel.com/300k-survivor
The landing page for this year's WFFC is www.fanduel.com/wffc
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Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
Thanks for the information. I'm definitely intrigued by the format even if there isn't an overlay this year.
David Dodds
Administrator
I thought these were super fun and a great test of skill too.
AnchorDrops
Footballguy
karmarooster
Footballguy
Could you guys elaborate on these from last year? From what I gather, if you stay above the cut line until Week 11 or so (top 5 people out of 27k), you fly to Vegas for the finals.
Looks like payouts were for the top 3,000 out of 25,000, so that's just 12% payout. On some level these appeal to me more than 1 in a million GPPs, but would like to hear more about payouts. Did anyone win anything?
Looks like payouts were for the top 3,000 out of 25,000, so that's just 12% payout. On some level these appeal to me more than 1 in a million GPPs, but would like to hear more about payouts. Did anyone win anything?
David Dodds
Administrator
I crushed these last year. Essentially they are +EV the second you get past the first cut. If you count the top 5 Vegas package at $2K (and it might be worth closer to $3K as they give you up to $1,000 flight credit + multiple nights in their hotel, and the Party is awesome - free food / liquor/ tons of big screens / schmoozing with lots of cool guys, etc).
So they collect $288,705 and pay out $257,800. Unlike most other GPPs this $5 event they posted is raked at 10.7%
Last year they had a $5, $25, and $200 and released the higher ones on subsequent weeks. I played all of them pretty hard and had multiple shots on goal in the final week before failing to earn a Vegas seat.
They play like a cash game early and start to play like a GPP the closer you get to the final cuts. The last cut is definitely a GPP as just 5 get the real prize of the 2,000 left.
I max-entried (50 entries) into the $5 one. Let's have a FBG take this one down.
So they collect $288,705 and pay out $257,800. Unlike most other GPPs this $5 event they posted is raked at 10.7%
Last year they had a $5, $25, and $200 and released the higher ones on subsequent weeks. I played all of them pretty hard and had multiple shots on goal in the final week before failing to earn a Vegas seat.
They play like a cash game early and start to play like a GPP the closer you get to the final cuts. The last cut is definitely a GPP as just 5 get the real prize of the 2,000 left.
I max-entried (50 entries) into the $5 one. Let's have a FBG take this one down.
karmarooster
Footballguy
Nice, thanks for the color Dodds. I dug this up from your blog: http://50percentds.blogspot.com/2014/11/good-week-but-lost-all-my-survivor.html
If you lost out Nov. 16, that looks to have been roughly Week 10, so 4 weeks into payouts. If you have any records handy, do you recall your investment and return on the Survivors? I remember you discussing these as "equity":
http://50percentds.blogspot.com/2014/10/and-bleeding-stops.html
If you lost out Nov. 16, that looks to have been roughly Week 10, so 4 weeks into payouts. If you have any records handy, do you recall your investment and return on the Survivors? I remember you discussing these as "equity":
http://50percentds.blogspot.com/2014/10/and-bleeding-stops.html
Assuming this means you had 22 entries at $5, 15 at $25 and 2 at $200. However, that looks to have been before the payouts started... so in theory you could've busted out all of them the next week and not won anything here, right?
astukas
Footballguy
https://www.fanduel.com/nfl-survivor
just the first week. And there are monetary prizes that kick in after week 5 I believe
karmarooster
Footballguy
Taking another look at this... I don't see how it's EV+ if you just survive the first week:
25 entries x $5 / 43k total entries * $250k prize pool = 145 (on250 investment) --> Duh, 25 x $5 is $125 in entries. 
So, yes I see the Positive EV here.
It doesn't appear to be EV+ until Week 4 (e.g. surviving 3 weeks):
25 / 20k entries * $250k prize pool = 312 (on 250 investment).
Also payouts start if you survive Week 5 (top 7.5k entries out of 12.5k). So if you make it to Week 6 but bust that week (e.g don't make it to top 4k of 7.5k entries), you'd get $10. If you survive Week 6 but bust in Week 7, you'd get $15-20. If you survive Week 7 but bust Week 8 (e.g. don't make it to top 5 for Vegas), you'd get $25 to $4,000. And if you make it to Vegas, $6k-25k. Early going is easy at 75% cut lines, but then it dips to 60-62.5% and then ~50% the last two weeks. Each doable in isolation, but difficult to execute in series.
Ok, I'm on board.
25 entries x $5 / 43k total entries * $250k prize pool = 145 (on
So, yes I see the Positive EV here.Also payouts start if you survive Week 5 (top 7.5k entries out of 12.5k). So if you make it to Week 6 but bust that week (e.g don't make it to top 4k of 7.5k entries), you'd get $10. If you survive Week 6 but bust in Week 7, you'd get $15-20. If you survive Week 7 but bust Week 8 (e.g. don't make it to top 5 for Vegas), you'd get $25 to $4,000. And if you make it to Vegas, $6k-25k. Early going is easy at 75% cut lines, but then it dips to 60-62.5% and then ~50% the last two weeks. Each doable in isolation, but difficult to execute in series.
Ok, I'm on board.
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AnchorDrops
Footballguy
You also have to take into account that this is different than a straight GPP. The value of each $5 entry that makes it into the cash has to be accounted for as the prizes are compounded in subsequent weeks. Each entry that makes it to week 6 is worth $10...make it though again and that $5 entry is worth $25 ($10 + $15,) etc...Taking another look at this... I don't see how it's EV+ if you just survive the first week:
25 entries x $5 / 43k total entries * $250k prize pool = 145 (on250investment) --> Duh, 25 x $5 is $125 in entries.
It doesn't appear to be EV+ until Week 4 (e.g. surviving 3 weeks):
25 / 20k entries * $250k prize pool = 312 (on 250 investment).
Also payouts start if you survive Week 5 (top 7.5k entries out of 12.5k). So if you make it to Week 6 but bust that week (e.g don't make it to top 4k of 7.5k entries), you'd get $10. If you survive Week 6 but bust in Week 7, you'd get $15-20. If you survive Week 7 but bust Week 8 (e.g. don't make it to top 5 for Vegas), you'd get $25 to $4,000. And if you make it to Vegas, $6k-25k. Early going is easy at 75% cut lines, but then it dips to 60-62.5% and then ~50% the last two weeks. Each doable in isolation, but difficult to execute in series.
Ok, I'm on board.
karmarooster
Footballguy
Anyone have general strategy tips for the Survivor contest?
I will probably load up on 50 entries for these. Was not sure if I should split them up among my usually lineups (will probably have 5 or so LUs for the main slate), or if they should be super low risk variants (e.g. no stacks, 50/50 type floors). I will probably fairly diversify them among kickers and defenses as well. I think my usual LUs are a bit riskier than necessary, but I'm hesitant to create some new low-risk strategy that could backfire as being too conservative.
I will probably load up on 50 entries for these. Was not sure if I should split them up among my usually lineups (will probably have 5 or so LUs for the main slate), or if they should be super low risk variants (e.g. no stacks, 50/50 type floors). I will probably fairly diversify them among kickers and defenses as well. I think my usual LUs are a bit riskier than necessary, but I'm hesitant to create some new low-risk strategy that could backfire as being too conservative.
Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
I'm totally in on this. I don't see me loading up on 50 entries, but as many as 25 might work within my overall bankroll management if I'm prepared to reduce my weekly investment appropriately.
Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
What's the general strategy on roster diversification in the first few weeks? My initial thought is to use my cash lineups as my foundation for these entries and just enter multiples of those. With the cut line being so low it seems that diversification isn't quite as important in the first couple weeks.
karmarooster
Footballguy
I'm bending the rules and counting this "outside" the weekly bankroll management guidelines. $250 for 50 entries would be roughly 8% of current bankroll, but it shouldn't be counted against just one week if it goes (in theory) for up to 8 weeks. At least that's my logic!
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David Dodds
Administrator
In these first few weeks, it's ok to be almost 100% chalk. I generally submit 3 different rosters, but you will see a lot of the pros submit the same lineup for all 50. As you approach the pay lines, this thing starts to play more and more like a small GPP. I prefer stacking and diversifying a bit more (knowing that I am likely sacrificing a few entries), but each extra rung starts to really increase your chance that you will have a few shots on goal for the big prizes.
Best of luck everyone. These really are my favorite contests to play
Best of luck everyone. These really are my favorite contests to play
Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
I think I'm going to amortize my play in these over 5 weeks. It takes week 6 to hit value, so a 5 week depreciation seems reasonable. That said, I want to leave myself some flexibility to throw some $25 entries into the mix.karmarooster said:
karmarooster
Footballguy
Ha, nice call on the amortization schedule! Assuming they have a $25 survivor fire up next week (and/or a $200), I'm thinking that the difference will be about the same as a $2 Double Up vs. the $10 and $25 versions. As in, I'm thinking of sticking to the low dollar buy-in and hoping that it's easier than the pricier games.
msudaisy26
Footballguy
I am trying these for the first time, can someone explain the payouts to me or give me a link to the payouts. I am confused.
Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
Here is the information from the FD site. You have to survive to week 6 to hit the money. The final five get flown to Vegas and put-up for the weekend.
EDIT: Well that didn't work. If you go to this link and scroll down and hit "contest structure".
https://www.fanduel.com/nfl-survivor
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JoeSteeler
Footballguy
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Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
AnchorDrops
Footballguy
Because it's fun! I loved the survivor series last season, and it was profitable for me. I cashed every single lineup I entered. I didn't make it to Vegas, but I turned a nice profit.
Wonderllama
Footballguy
It feel like there will be too many pros in this. And then having to advance five weeks in a row just to see a profit... hmmm, maybe just one entry...
JoeSteeler
Footballguy
is this $5 per week or just $5 once?
AnchorDrops
Footballguy
$5 per entry for this week. After that you just need to survive. You will receive a ticket (automatically be entered) next week for each entry that makes the cut.
JoeSteeler
Footballguy
Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
I don't know that it's "softer" but you've lost me on the second sentence.
I don't understand how the top 5 winning trips to Vegas is any different than, say, them winning an additional $2000 each. It's just part of the prizes. If I've done my math right, the total cash return is $249,000 on $287,355 in entry fees (if it fills up). That's a rake of ~13.35% if you ignore the 5 Vegas trips. If you value them at $2000 each, it reduces the rake to ~9.87%. I get not wanting to include the trips in the value of the prizes since it's hardly a fixed number (I can get to and from Vegas for a weekend in a reasonably nice room for way less than $2000, for example), but I don't think you would add any additional figures to that ~13.35% rake because of the trips. Those trips have some value, so there is value being returned to the prize pool.
Either way you choose to figure it, the first week reduces the field by more than the rake though.
Am I missing something?
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BassNBrew
Footballguy
No, you covered it. 13.35% is a huge rake. My initial point was that if you aren't interested in Vegas, then your money is better spent elsewhere then loading up on multiple entires. On top of that, you'll have pros like Dodds loading up on entires because being is Vegas is worth a lot from a PR standpoint.
Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
For $5 tournaments, 13% is the standard FD tournament rake -- the Sunday Rush and Sunday Spike are almost exactly 13%, for example. Is it huge? Sure, but if you're going to play FD tournaments at that price point anyway, it's consistent with them. From my perspective, I'm always up for a trip to Vegas, not that my expectation is that I'll finish in the top 5.
To be sure, I don't buy into the notion that it is "+EV" if you survive the first week. The ratio of strong players to the field as a whole will only grow each week.
GreenNGold
Footballguy
Unfortunately that is standard rake (the rake is even closer to 15% now). My understanding is all the Vegas stuff is value added that isn't part of most tournaments so this is actually much better value than most.
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David Dodds
Administrator
I think it's a bit unfair to not value the Vegas trip. As part of it, they are giving you a thousand dollar stipend just to fly there. Then they are giving you 3 nights at the Cosmo (one of the best hotels in Vegas). You get a limo ride. You then get a couple of ridiculously fun parties. A few years ago, Jerry Rice attended the pre-party and chatted with everyone personally. As for the LIVE event final: You are watching the games in a rented out ballroom with no less than 20 monitors, free food and drink with lots of people that love football. In year's past, FanDuel has given away swag bags worth of goodies ($200+ value). And you get to bring a guest to all of this fun too.
On top of all of that, if you win 2 prize packages, FanDuel gives you $3K cash equivalent for the redundant one. Everyone will value these things differently, but I think $2K-$3K is the right price to associate with the Vegas trip. And that might be on the low end. When you add in the Vegas trips, this is raked much closer to 9%. It's a TON of fun too.
If you are thinking of playing, I would not wait much longer. There just over 10,000 spots left.
On top of all of that, if you win 2 prize packages, FanDuel gives you $3K cash equivalent for the redundant one. Everyone will value these things differently, but I think $2K-$3K is the right price to associate with the Vegas trip. And that might be on the low end. When you add in the Vegas trips, this is raked much closer to 9%. It's a TON of fun too.
If you are thinking of playing, I would not wait much longer. There just over 10,000 spots left.
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GreenNGold
Footballguy
In for 50 entries. Let's do this!
Wonderllama
Footballguy
You're a good spokesperson, Dodds. I'm in. Vegas would be a dream come true, but I'll be satisfied just to profit a little. YOLO
Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
I have no delusions about this format -- by the time the 5th week rolls around the field will be dominated by pros. That said, I think it will be entertaining and an interesting intellectual exercise to play.
jabarony
Footballguy
It's not rocket surgery. Just pick a better lineup than they do. I did the weekly FBG double-up 2 weeks ago and beat Bloom/Bryant/Dodds (he's not a machine!). Then again, Bryant beat 98% of chumps, like me, last week. Point being, even if the "pros" do better overall than the average contestant, they don't have a Marty McFly sports almanac.
Plus, don't you hear all the radio commercials stating Mike Scumbag from Portland won $100,000 on a $5 entry? That scumbag could be you!
Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
Don't misunderestimate me -- I'm not in awe of anyone or anything. I'm just saying that I'm not naive about this format, it favors the stronger player a ton. If it were a single-entry affair, I would think I would be amongst those favored by the format at least in the first few weeks. With 50 entries per player, there are going to be thousands of entries from guys who have invested a lot more time and analysis into DFS than I.
I'm teeing up multiple entries to win something though.
My biggest issue is being tied for 1st in my daily transaction fantasy baseball league. 5 categories are within a single AB of swinging the outcome (I'm tied with the other guy in 1st in SO, 0.0001 in OBP away from +1 point, 0.0003 OBP away from -2 points, 1 RBI from gaining a point, 3 R from losing a point, and 2 HR from catching the other guy in 1st in HR). I'm investing an inordinate amount of time in that and am fearful I won't have sufficient time invested in DFS this week.
Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
I've committed to 10 lineups in this thing. I'm running my top 2 cash lineups out 3 times each, a variation of my Thursday cash lineup out twice, my "hedgey" #3 cash lineup once, and another cash lineup I liked but ultimately didn't use because I wanted to hedge more than it provided once.
AnchorDrops
Footballguy
Two 25 entry trains full of chalk. Hoping both make it through to week 2. Chooooo-choo!!!
GreenNGold
Footballguy
I got lazy and only submitted one lineup, lost all my 50/50's and/or double ups but luckily survived round one.
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JimmyJabroni
Footballguy
I'm only in for one entry. Finished around 5000 so on to week 2!
karmarooster
Footballguy
Put in 50 entries, 45 advance. Pissed about those 5 though.
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