Yes. They have talked all wee how they wanted to get Langford lots of playing time. Chicago as a team are doing much better and knew he would be getting passing targets out of the backfield with jeffery gimpy.
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FanDuel Week 10 (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter pbandy1
- Start date
Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
So you just ignored the whole "on the road facing the #4 rush defense" matchup entirely? Did you think Langford achieved "matchup proof" status based on his body of work before this game (45 rushes for 152 yards and 5 catches for 101 yards) or did you have reason to think STL's defense was primed for a let down?wyattroa said:
I'm not trying to come across as snarky, but you do see the reasons for my skepticism in the process, right?
Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
My brother tried to convince me to go w/ a Ben/Brown stack. He's a Pitt fan and was convinced Ben would play. We argued for 15 mins about how frigging stupid it would be to start Ben. He wanted me to do it in a cash game instead of going w/ Brees. The fact that it was stupid hasn't stopped him from gloating incessantly about it tho.
Just because it's a game of skill doesn't mean luck isn't a component.
DukeBroadway
Footballguy
Its always better to be lucky than good. I honestly would take either, but not happening this week.
I should have went cousins across the board. Gonna cost me at least 1/3rd of my winnings at least with just going Bortles over cousins.
I'm sure it's going to get worse after tomorrow nights game. Went Olsen instead of Reed in a ton of lineups also. I'm sure there's a ton of eifert/dalton lineups.
What a week.
I'm sure it's going to get worse after tomorrow nights game. Went Olsen instead of Reed in a ton of lineups also. I'm sure there's a ton of eifert/dalton lineups.
What a week.
Bobcat10
Footballguy
My Thurs Cousins LU wasn't very good but could cash with another big game from Eifert. Also my Newton Thurs is close with Nugent and my Rodgers should cash.
Today's Cousins will easily cash. The Brady was terrible thanks to Cobb Diggs Deangelo Starks. My Bortles I almost bought completely out of at the last minute, but put those dollars on the Brady LU. Ooops.
So ya I think all Cousins would have worked out better, but I was on so many guys that did crappy I really don't know how much better.
Today's Cousins will easily cash. The Brady was terrible thanks to Cobb Diggs Deangelo Starks. My Bortles I almost bought completely out of at the last minute, but put those dollars on the Brady LU. Ooops.
So ya I think all Cousins would have worked out better, but I was on so many guys that did crappy I really don't know how much better.
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Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
Those late garbage time scores for Denver really hurt.
Bobcat10
Footballguy
Had a nice start to a Thurs gpp with Cousins, Cooks and Reed. I needed a little more out of Gurley, Blount (got stuffed at the 1 a few times), and DJax. Walsh and Pitt did their job. A big game out of Hopkins tomorrow and I can maybe win $25 on $1 entry. That would help recover some losses.
#4 rush defense? They are giving up almost 110 yards a game and have given up 6 rushing tds. They are ranked the 16th worst rushing defense and given up the league most 9 20+yard rushing plays. According to team stats. the number 4 rush defense is arizona giving up 90 yards a game and only 3 tds.
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AquaBliss
Footballguy
Floyd and AP are saving my cash games. If I didn't stupidly play Garçon, I would have had a good GPP contender.Ya, seems like no love for Michael Floyd this week - he's my sleeper. I know, I know, Seattle D at home, blah blah
Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef
Coming into this week, the #4 rush defense, 21.5% better than average. And coming into this week, they had given up 5 rushing TDs all season. At home they had given-up ~77 yards per game with a grand total of 1 rushing TD (actually, 1 TD to RB at all) in 4 games.
Granted, they hardly played the elite running games of the NFL at home, but they did face Seattle to open the season and Leveon (who got the 1 TD). But there's a reason he was a ~2.1% owned player in cash games. The match-up wasn't a good match-up by any objective measure.
I'm not saying he was a bad GPP play (he wasn't, he was a very good GPP play), but if any "expert" said he was a good cash game play he would have had 0 objective data to base that on.
Projections for public consumption are extremely difficult. If the sole basis for a recommendation is that the coaching staff said they want to get him the ball, that's a bad recommendation.
Overall this is a bad week for me. I had some nice plays like Demarco Murray, Bryant, Floyd, Evans, and still have Bernard and Hopkins tomorrow, but most of my QBs and RBs did not hit anywhere near value. And I have no idea why didn't have any lineups with Kirk Cousins... I played him last time when he had that great game against the Bucs but I ignore him this time against the Saints? ugh.
I need to pay more attention to Vegas odds, lol.
I need to pay more attention to Vegas odds, lol.
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mitchh1124
Footballguy
i wish the sites would get rid of defenses and kickers
make to flex spots
denver has killed me twice in a row.
make to flex spots
denver has killed me twice in a row.
Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
I know I'm totally in the minority, but I like having defenses and PK. I don't think they're quite as random as some argue. Based on this week, PK are no more random than RB apparently.
There is a guy, Chris Raybon or something on 4for4, that has actually shown PK's predictability is on par with other positions. And I like Defenses because I'm usually pretty good at predicting of how the outcome of a game will turn out. So FanDuel it is for me.
Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
Nudged up into the money here and there. I have some exposure in 3/4ths of my cash lineups tomorrow (Eifert, Nugent/Cincy, and Washington respectively), so it could be salvageable.
GilbertGrape
Footballguy
Making nothing. Cousins was fine, but mcfaddedn/williams/Denver killed me.Unless Hopkins does REALLY well. Then I might place somewhere.
crusty crab
Footballguy
Well, Doug Martin didn't kill my Thursday lineups. He just severely wounded them. DeAngelo Williams finished most of them off.
JFS171
Footballguy
I'm shocked at this week - scores must be wayyyyy down. I stopped even paying attention mid-way through the afternoon games as I thought for sure I was cooked. I ended up at 110.9, and somehow that cashed in 20/20 50/50s for Sunday-only. The same lineup with a different kicker (Nugent) is winning across a bunch of 50/50s heading into tonight, and in good position to get there in the rest with a decent night from Nugent.
Apparently it was a bloodbath week. I'm floored I'm winning this week... spent my entire Sunday thinking I torched 70% of my year-to-date profit.
Apparently it was a bloodbath week. I'm floored I'm winning this week... spent my entire Sunday thinking I torched 70% of my year-to-date profit.
Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
Yeah. My Thursday lineup hit 119+. It's looking like a rake and may even pull down all of its triple-ups.
My Sunday-Monday lineups are still in play despite really low scores. I'm thinking that hitting 112 would be a pretty strong performance in most cash games. The double-ups I'm in are currently all carrying cash lines of 100-102. I've got 3 lineups at 96.62, 98.46, and 106.86 and all have players left (Washington, Eifert, Nugent/Cincy respectively). It just means a late night for me I guess.
snogger
Footballguy
Seemed the writing was on the wall that Ingram and Williams were in for "locks of the week".. and making my lineups :X Last two weeks have been killers for me.. Started the year with $38.. Two weeks ago I was up to $108..
Unless tonight's game is a 10-6 snorefest, I'll be down to $73 as I'm currently "in the money" with FBG Lineup, but I am only 3 points over the cut line.
They gave up a rushing td to Bell and peterson 2 good running backs. Peterson went over 100 against them, Bell probably would have done the same if Big Ben would not have gone down with an injury and vick coming in. The seahawks are a joke this year, their offense is horrible. The rams defense is not very good. I was confident with the numbers I looked up. You obviously did not like what you saw. Either way, thats the great thing about dfs.
Lionsfan011
Footballguy
My predictions were awful. TE was the only position group I was right on. Still don't know how Green Bay laid an egg. Luckily had Cousins in the lineup and barely made it past the money line in 50/50. Onward to next week.
Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
I'm not bagging on your analysis, you don't have to justify that to me or anyone else. I'm just trying to defend the "experts" a little bit. What they do is extremely difficult. Making projections for everyone else to use is necessarily a conservative task. Everything has to be based on objective data. The subjective stuff might be fine for personal use or even on message boards, but the projections themselves really can't be. FWIW, I didn't use Forsett in any cash lineup. I liked his match-up and think he's very talented, but I don't trust Harbaugh's usage patterns at all. I get why the math said Forsett was worthy of a play though.
I agree with you 100% on forsett, everything looked great on paper. The problem is game plan there. Against San Diego they come out pass heavy when they are horrible against the run. They have no WRs to really throw too, but they dont run. Not sure whats going on in Balt currently with game script.
JFS171
Footballguy
Anyone going to play the Monday-Thursday slate? I'm actually kind of intrigued at the options this week... plenty of them and the pricing actually forces you to make trade-off decisions. I think I'll throw some $$ into some 50/50s.
Right now I've got:
Dalton
Yeldon
McCluster
Hopkins
AJ Green
Robinson
Eifert
Novak
Cinci D
Right now I've got:
Dalton
Yeldon
McCluster
Hopkins
AJ Green
Robinson
Eifert
Novak
Cinci D
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JFS171
Footballguy
Sounds like he's being evaluated for a sports hernia, and surgery has been mentioned. I'd stay away, personally.
With Yeldon in a walking boot, that's also making me nervous.
Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
Ebaker5
Footballguy
My only losing week came after I incorporated "H-Value" into my roster construction. Not saying that it is a HORRIBLE function, just i did better without it.
Crazy week ...
Vegas had a BAD week. 9 underdogs won outright. Cash cut-lines very low this week.
First place I go for all things Fan Duel are the lines and threw things off a little. Thankfully, followed the gut and had 100% exposure to Cousins ... did not waiver ... and panned out. And pulled the plug on Crabtree. Avid bow hunter and i am sorry but you cannot do much via the air in a game with a steady 25 mph wind. If I opt out of hunting in weather that windy you sure as blank cannot throw a football with a high level of accuracy. Again ... trust YOUR process and where you arrived at
For what is is worth I typically check line-ups of the "pros" once cash games go live. On weeks when there is a cheaper QB ... 6500 - 7400 ... with a dream match-up those guys are typically locked in on that player. Ball in the QB hand every play. Point add up quickly. Takes so little to hit cash value.
Regardless of what smoke screen, BS you read from said "pros" that work for DFS specific sites ... on weeks if/when there is a value play at QB in a statistically superior match-up they are on that player more often than not, while by passing the 9200 - 8900 QB
Not making a connection between myself and the pro player by any means. Just sharing learning experiences.
I made a habit of comparing my line-ups to the pros in an effort to learn when I started last year. I still do this each week. You can identify tendencies in their games, as you can in poker. Suggestion ... try it out and see how you differ in thought and now close you are to their thinking. I just know a cheap QB in a good match-up is pretty safe and sharp play.
I have come to the realization that a good 80% of the content they (pro writing or broadcasting) produce is equally smoke screen and non-comital. They hedge more comments than not, as to not tip too much and not to look wrong. I have learned to take it all in stride and trust the line-up I built.
I will say this. John Lee in my opinion is the most direct, specific voice in the DFS space. You are missing out if you are not following him via written word or his broadcasts. Ask him a direct question and you get a direct answer.
As a Lions fan ... who was mid point of college when they last won on the Frozen Tundra ... WTF happened yesterday and how did it happen? If you are racing the Niners for the 1st overall pick you are going about it all wrong FINALLY winning in Green Bay. This ... this is life as a Lions fan
Hope anyone chasing big money tonight makes out
Vegas had a BAD week. 9 underdogs won outright. Cash cut-lines very low this week.
First place I go for all things Fan Duel are the lines and threw things off a little. Thankfully, followed the gut and had 100% exposure to Cousins ... did not waiver ... and panned out. And pulled the plug on Crabtree. Avid bow hunter and i am sorry but you cannot do much via the air in a game with a steady 25 mph wind. If I opt out of hunting in weather that windy you sure as blank cannot throw a football with a high level of accuracy. Again ... trust YOUR process and where you arrived at
For what is is worth I typically check line-ups of the "pros" once cash games go live. On weeks when there is a cheaper QB ... 6500 - 7400 ... with a dream match-up those guys are typically locked in on that player. Ball in the QB hand every play. Point add up quickly. Takes so little to hit cash value.
Regardless of what smoke screen, BS you read from said "pros" that work for DFS specific sites ... on weeks if/when there is a value play at QB in a statistically superior match-up they are on that player more often than not, while by passing the 9200 - 8900 QB
Not making a connection between myself and the pro player by any means. Just sharing learning experiences.
I made a habit of comparing my line-ups to the pros in an effort to learn when I started last year. I still do this each week. You can identify tendencies in their games, as you can in poker. Suggestion ... try it out and see how you differ in thought and now close you are to their thinking. I just know a cheap QB in a good match-up is pretty safe and sharp play.
I have come to the realization that a good 80% of the content they (pro writing or broadcasting) produce is equally smoke screen and non-comital. They hedge more comments than not, as to not tip too much and not to look wrong. I have learned to take it all in stride and trust the line-up I built.
I will say this. John Lee in my opinion is the most direct, specific voice in the DFS space. You are missing out if you are not following him via written word or his broadcasts. Ask him a direct question and you get a direct answer.
As a Lions fan ... who was mid point of college when they last won on the Frozen Tundra ... WTF happened yesterday and how did it happen? If you are racing the Niners for the 1st overall pick you are going about it all wrong FINALLY winning in Green Bay. This ... this is life as a Lions fan
Hope anyone chasing big money tonight makes out
GilbertGrape
Footballguy
Been a FBG longer and gave $900 back in the last 4 weeks. I could cash this week if Hopkins has a great game.... Crap.
Kitrick Taylor
Footballguy
How do you find the lineups of the pros?
GilbertGrape
Footballguy
Oh Jesus, now Hoyer is out.
