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Week 4 DFS (1 Viewer)

FatNate

Footballguy
Week 4

Wash -2.5 @ Atl  48
Det +2.5 @ Chi 42.5
Tenn -7.5 @ NYJ 46
Cle -2 @ Minn 53
Ind +2 @ Mia 43.5
Car +5 @ Dal 50.5
NYG +8 @ NO 43.5
KC -7.5 @ Phi 54.5
Hou +16.5 @ Buf 48
Ari +5.5 @ LAR 53.5
Sea +2.5 @ SF 52
Balt +1.5 @ Den 44.5
Pitt +6.5 @ GB 45.5
 

 

KarmaPolice

Footballguy
I started looking at RBs and QBs yesterday.  I will post some thoughts later.   I was looking at PFF's expected fantasy points/game chart and thought some things were interesting.  

 

KarmaPolice

Footballguy
Really, not much changed as far as the lists.  I am guessing we will see the same names over and over.   Anyway, here were the top volume guys as far as touches/game:

30+:  Henry

25+:  Cook

20+:  Kamara, N.Harris

17+:  D.Mont, Swift, Chubb, Gibson, A.Jones, Zeke

Players with 16+ and 4targets/game:  M.Davis, Taylor, Barkley.  

On top of the above, we need names like Mattison, Hubbard, and Michel for injury possibility.  

Now, the list is pretty much the same, but I wrote down names from the expected pts/game list in DK scoring and that was:

N.harris, Henry, Swift, Cook, Kamara, A.Jones, D.Henderson, M.Davis, Barkley, J.Taylor, C.Edmonds.  

Similar to the touches list, but maybe points to some value as you compare that list prices - ie on DK a lot of that list is sub 7K.  

 

KarmaPolice

Footballguy
Again, we seem to know and play the same QBs, so I just thought I'd post the expected pts/g list because I thought it was interesting.   Exactly the same list for DK and FD.   Big thing I noted was that #2 and #3 on the list aren't on main slate (Brady, Herbert), and that left a huge gap from #1 to #4.     The list was:

J.Allen, Dak, L.Jax, Murray, Hurts, Darnold, Mahomes   (Carr also in the top 10, but not on main slate).  

What I thought was interesting was the difference between Allen and Dak was about 5-6 pts/game.   Darnold was also a bit of a surprise for the list too.  

 

KarmaPolice

Footballguy
Same for TEs:  expected pts/game for main slate = 

Kelce, Hock, Gesicki, Kittle, Conklin, Pitts

The first 2 aren't on the main slate in Waller and Gronk.    There is about a 2pt/game differences separating the first 3 names on that list.  

 

KarmaPolice

Footballguy
Are you paying for the PFF stuff this year?  I took a look but none of the details are listed there... maybe I don't have the right site/link?
Yeah, I found a deal/promo and tried it for a month.    I also did a $10 deposit on Yahoo to get 2 free months of the awesemo site too.   Trying stuff out to see what I like.     Sucks because most sites IMO have crappy optimizers besides RG, but the other sites I like the info a little better.   They all bring a little something different.   0 chance I'd pay 100-140/month for awesemo for my bankroll, but do like some of their info and leverage scores.  

Sad thing is more and more you can't even get decent info for free like air yards and such.  

IMO about all a good site needs is a good optimizer that you can easily put stacks in (RG), ownership %s (any), and good leverage/boom-bust/gpp odds info (awesemo and 4for4 are good here).   None seem to tie it all together.  

 

FatNate

Footballguy
Yeah, I found a deal/promo and tried it for a month.    I also did a $10 deposit on Yahoo to get 2 free months of the awesemo site too.   Trying stuff out to see what I like.     Sucks because most sites IMO have crappy optimizers besides RG, but the other sites I like the info a little better.   They all bring a little something different.   0 chance I'd pay 100-140/month for awesemo for my bankroll, but do like some of their info and leverage scores.  

Sad thing is more and more you can't even get decent info for free like air yards and such.  

IMO about all a good site needs is a good optimizer that you can easily put stacks in (RG), ownership %s (any), and good leverage/boom-bust/gpp odds info (awesemo and 4for4 are good here).   None seem to tie it all together.  


I have been using RG for years.  My subscription just got disconitnued, but renewed at a slightly higher rate.  It gives me access to NFL/NBA/PGA/MLB, which is perfect for my interests.  The new rate is now $60 per month.  I like the content/format and I think they offer a very good optimizer.  What I like best about the optimizers are the customizations you can create.  Most recently, I have been tinkering with the NFL settings and it has proven to be very flexible.  Allows for setting your core (or not), then tell what games you want to be considered for primary/secondary/third stacks.  It has another half dozen or more options available from a settings stand point.  It includes ownership projections within the optimizer.  It aslo provides the RG value rating, along with a consesus rankings, for all players as part of the optimizer.  I enjoy the coverage FBG provides, but I use it for my season league mostly and for comparison purposes to RG.

 
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KarmaPolice

Footballguy
I have been using RG for years.  My subscription just got disconitnued, but renewed at a slightly higher rate.  It gives me access to NFL/NBA/PGA/MLB, which is perfect for my interests.  The new rate is now $60 per month.  I like the content/format and I think they offer a very good optimizer.  What I like best about the optimizers are the customizations you can create.  Most recently, I have been tinkering with the NFL settings and it has proven to be very flexible.  Allows for setting your core (or not), then tell what games you want to be considered for primary/secondary/third stacks.  It has another half dozen or more options available from a settings stand point.  It includes ownership projections within the optimizer.  It aslo provides the RG value rating, along with a consesus rankings, for all players as part of the optimizer.  I enjoy the coverage FBG provides, but I use it for my season league mostly and for comparison purposes to RG.


I think RG is one of the better bang for the bucks, and by far the best optimizer that I've come across for the reasons that you described.  Really easy to put in stacks for gpps and go.   Like I said, I wish for $60/month there was just a tad more with gpp/leverage stuff.   Unless they added stuff, or I didn't see it when I had it.   What I have really liked on other sites that I don't see on RG:

Expected points/game - PFF.   Really puts value into perspective and possible regression candidates. 

Leverage scores - 4for4 and awesemo is great here

Boom/bust or gpp hit %s.   again 4for4/awesemo   Really puts into perspective gpp players and pivots.  

I also didn't like that when you listen to the pods they are always talking about The Blitz projection system, or they bring up PFF stuff, etc..  makes me feel a little like they aren't providing all the stuff you need or you need to pay even more than $60/month for the better projection systems.  

 

KarmaPolice

Footballguy
Pace of play stuff was out on RG, and it looks like 2 of the top 4 games aren't on the main slate (tb/ne and Lac/LV) , which still left the fastest 2 games though:

Houst/Buff and Wash/Atl

a distant 5th was Az/LaR

 

KarmaPolice

Footballguy
Josh Allen gonna be in 20% of lineups this week?  Whatever the number, he'll be the most owned QB this week I guessing.
Very possible, but if you like him in gpps, there is still plenty of places to get leverage.   double stack with Beasley or Knox?  Look just one low % WR from another game in the LU.  Odd DT, etc..     I also don't think people do something like Allen/Diggs/Buff D too much either.  

I think every week because of upside and the too high price of the stack, KC usually shows up as the top leverage stack/team.    I will look and post later in the week if that's the case this week again.  

ETA:  early ownership % have Allen as 4th owned on FD behind Mahomes/Murray/Lamar 

 
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KarmaPolice

Footballguy
Chart looks wonky for FD, but for DK they have for their top stacks:   KC, Buff, LaR, Dall, SF, Car     

Best leverage scores were:  Buff, KC, LaR, Seat, GB, SF    

If I'm not clear this is their projection of odds that team's stack is highest scoring of the week there was a huge drop off after Rams as they went from 12.3% for Rams to 5.8% for Dallas.   KC was 19%.    Then it's compared to ownership projection for how owned that team will be for leverage.   Basically it's saying that Dallas/Car will be overowned compared to their top scoring odds.  

 

KarmaPolice

Footballguy
DK guys - what are you thinking about for cash LUs?       Prices are going up a bit, and it seems dumb to not have a couple of:  top QB, Henry/Kamara, Kupp, or Kelce  but if you do that it's pretty tight after that.    One thing that popped in my head for cheap is using Engram at 3K if I am not doing Kelce, then Det DT for the cheap DT and that leaves 6.4K for the rest of the 7 spots which is actually nice.  

I really like the 6K range for RBs:  Harris, Zeke, Gibson, Swift, Carson, D.Mont, etc.   

My initial had Allen, Kupp and 3 of those guys, but it feels scary leaving off Henry as a big fave with banged up WRs.  

 

Raging weasel

Footballguy
DK guys - what are you thinking about for cash LUs?       Prices are going up a bit, and it seems dumb to not have a couple of:  top QB, Henry/Kamara, Kupp, or Kelce  but if you do that it's pretty tight after that.    One thing that popped in my head for cheap is using Engram at 3K if I am not doing Kelce, then Det DT for the cheap DT and that leaves 6.4K for the rest of the 7 spots which is actually nice.  

I really like the 6K range for RBs:  Harris, Zeke, Gibson, Swift, Carson, D.Mont, etc.   

My initial had Allen, Kupp and 3 of those guys, but it feels scary leaving off Henry as a big fave with banged up WRs.  
Yeah it's tough on DK for cash games. I started with Stafford,Henry, Gibson and Engram. After adding Den D it left 5.5k for my 3 WRs and a flex. I've changed them around a few times already. I like OBJ at 5.8 but after that it's a crapshoot. Tenn WRs are a little over 3k but will they actually do anything?

 

KarmaPolice

Footballguy
Yeah it's tough on DK for cash games. I started with Stafford,Henry, Gibson and Engram. After adding Den D it left 5.5k for my 3 WRs and a flex. I've changed them around a few times already. I like OBJ at 5.8 but after that it's a crapshoot. Tenn WRs are a little over 3k but will they actually do anything?
The sub 6k Wrs that were on my initial list for target share % were:  OBJ, Beasley, Pittman, M.Brown, A.Rob, Watkins.    I did stop at 25% because there were so many, but I am going to look now at 20%+ and see if others stand out.   I assume Sanders and the cheap Az WRs should be in consideration too.  

 

KarmaPolice

Footballguy
Looking around the go-to pt/$ that stands out seems to be Westbrook-Ikhine at 3.2K.    Others that have popped up looking at target%, expected pts/game, etc.. were:  Aiyuk, Waddle, Fuller, Mooney.  

 

FatNate

Footballguy
We usually only talk the main slate, but I do a small private league that plays SUN-MON slate.  So, every week I have one lineup in that league and I use it in one other tournament.  Is there any reason I shouldn't just stack Brady-Brown-Gronk against New England or am I just getting sucked into the hype?

And speaking of hype....I am over it already!

 

KarmaPolice

Footballguy
The chart for FD was fixed, so their top stack % are:  KC, Buf, Lar, Dallas, Car, SF    and leverage is:  LaR, KC, SF, Buff, Car, Seattle.  

Again, big difference in teams - ie Buff was projected 2x more likely to be top stack vs. Dallas.  

 

KarmaPolice

Footballguy
KarmaPolice said:
As I glanced back at the expected pts/game list, the cheap QB that stood out was Darnold.   For the slate, he's #6 as far as expected pts/game, but he is priced as QB13.   6K for him.  
On this note, I was interested in doing more positions to maybe narrow down some cash plays.   comparing expected pts/game vs salary I circled:  the numbers mean rank on xpts/rank on DK pricing:  

QB:  Dak 2/9, Darnold 6/13  

RB:  Harris 1/7, Swift 3/14, Henderson 7/20, M.Davis 8/30, C.Edmonds 12/21, Z.Moss 13/25, J.will (det) 14/26, J.will (denv) 16/34,  C.Patterson 17/36

WR:  Ridley 3/9, Cooks 4/16, Lamb 5/12, D.Johnson 7/18,  Beasley 10/30, OBJ 12/23, Cooper 13/20,  M.Brown 15/32, Pittman 16/31, Waddle 20/42

TE:   Geskicki 3/11, Conklin 5/15

ETA:  that's not saying other plays aren't great.   I didn't see many that seemed overpriced, and when they were, they were stud players that are efficient and can go off - ie Mahomes was 7th on expected points, but 1st on salary.     Others that stuck out were:  hill, Metcalf, Thielen, McLaurin.  

 
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Solomon Grundy

Footballguy
At QB I'll do the following 6 guys (number of plays in paren) and stack same team WR and also opponent WR: Mahomes (8), Allen (8), Stafford (8), Murray (4), Garoppolo (8), Wilson (4)

RBs I like are few this week, will max exposure at 60% each: Henry, Kamara, Najee, Gibson, Dalvin

I'll let the optimizer flesh out the rest with max 30% exposure to any one player/DEF

For our league I'll go Mahomes - Chase Edmonds, Zack Moss - Kupp, Hopkins, Devontae Smith, Gabriel Davis - Kelce - Lions DEF

 

FatNate

Footballguy
I tinkered all day.  My favorite builds were mostly with Wilson and stacking around the Sea/SF game.  I especially like that Wilson is projected at less than 5% ownership.  I also like stacking Rodgers with Jones and Adams. I might run it back with Najee, mostly I won’t. GB usage is so concentrated and predictable it makes them nice to target.  Add to that 3% ownership projected on Rodgers.  

 
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FatNate

Footballguy
At QB I'll do the following 6 guys (number of plays in paren) and stack same team WR and also opponent WR: Mahomes (8), Allen (8), Stafford (8), Murray (4), Garoppolo (8), Wilson (4)

RBs I like are few this week, will max exposure at 60% each: Henry, Kamara, Najee, Gibson, Dalvin

I'll let the optimizer flesh out the rest with max 30% exposure to any one player/DEF

For our league I'll go Mahomes - Chase Edmonds, Zack Moss - Kupp, Hopkins, Devontae Smith, Gabriel Davis - Kelce - Lions DEF
I don’t trust Dalvin and at $9500 he has to hit. I am very concerned of further injury. 

 

FatNate

Footballguy
KarmaPolice said:
As I glanced back at the expected pts/game list, the cheap QB that stood out was Darnold.   For the slate, he's #6 as far as expected pts/game, but he is priced as QB13.   6K for him.  
Darnold is only a $5k discount, on FD, but he is projected at 3% ownership, compared to Dak at $7700 and 13% projected ownership.  I prefer Darnold in this game and will build accordingly. 

 

KarmaPolice

Footballguy
Random DK gpp thoughts for leverage/low% plays.   

TE:  2 that stood out were the 2 in the SF/Seattle game.   I like that game in general, and was thinking about secondary correlations of something like Kittle/Metcalf or Dissly/Aiyuk or Samuel.   

RB:  pivoting off chalk WRs if I am not stacking that game or using a secondary correlation.  CEH, A.Jones, Zeke, Henderson popped up here.   I also wrote down Chubb/Hunt, Edmonds, and Taylor for sub 5% guys.  

WR:  It seems like Murray and all his WRs are very low owned.   I like attacking that game this route and just running back Kupp.   If I read correctly, Murray and all of his targets are projected under 5% ownership.     Seems like every pod was hyping up R.Anderson as a pivot from Moore, so I wrote down T.Marshall.    Thielen is always way low owned too.  

Game:  I do keep coming back to the high pace games, as it seems like they are underowned.   Buff/Houst and Wash/Atl.   For my 20 10cent LUs I was actually thinking about trying the wash/atl game.     I was just sitting down to see what some of these ideas look like together.   I might just do 20 Murray LUs instead since those pieces are cheaper.  

 

FatNate

Footballguy
Struggling with RB this week.  I like the high end guys, but then can’t find the right cheaper WR.  I do like some of the mid-tier RB, but I am not sure if I trust them. Especially, if I go three mid-tier RBs — how likely is it that I get them all right.  Also, seems like the top end WR are more volatile than the top end RB.  Age old DFS questions.  Drives me insane — tinkering. And also the very reason I love DFS. 

 

Solomon Grundy

Footballguy
Struggling with RB this week.  I like the high end guys, but then can’t find the right cheaper WR.  I do like some of the mid-tier RB, but I am not sure if I trust them. Especially, if I go three mid-tier RBs — how likely is it that I get them all right.  Also, seems like the top end WR are more volatile than the top end RB.  Age old DFS questions.  Drives me insane — tinkering. And also the very reason I love DFS. 
I always focus on usage at the RB position. That's easily the most consistent indiciator of highest upside. This week I see only 5 guys projected at 20+ touches. With AJ Brown and Julio both out Sunday, I think you have to bet on Henry but his ownership will be through the roof. Best pivot would be someone from the Sea SF game because of the projected point total. Sermon might be the guy, but I prefer Carson as he's more consistent.

 

FatNate

Footballguy
I always focus on usage at the RB position. That's easily the most consistent indiciator of highest upside. This week I see only 5 guys projected at 20+ touches. With AJ Brown and Julio both out Sunday, I think you have to bet on Henry but his ownership will be through the roof. Best pivot would be someone from the Sea SF game because of the projected point total. Sermon might be the guy, but I prefer Carson as he's more consistent.
I like Mitchell over Sermon and Carson this week, assuming he plays. 

 

KarmaPolice

Footballguy
Taking a few stabs on FD this week.   Using their boom/bust and leverage chart, I put together this shell LU:

Allen - Kamara/Henderson/A.Jones - Beasley/Cooks/D.Samuel - Knox - Car

Probably make a similar ones but with Sanders instead of Beasley,  Dissly instead of Knox, etc..  

Still really struggling with my DK cash LU.   Considering just saying F-it with cash again and just going gpp.   Way less thinking.  :lol:  

 

SeniorVBDStudent

Footballguy
Going heavy with a short list of players so that probably means a horrifically bad week coming lol.

Very heavy on Kelce, Gisecki, A Jones, Gibson, Chubb/Hunt, Bills stacks, Cowboys stacks, and Hurts stacks.

One off stacks with Vikings, WFT, Stafford, Rodgers, Garrapolo (if Kittle plays).

Assuming CAR is not as good as people think, and that ATL and PIT are as bad as people think.

Gonna be pretty light on Henry, Kamara and Cook....2 or 3 lineups with Henry, 1 each Kamara and Cook....out of a dozen or so total lineups.

 

KarmaPolice

Footballguy
DK gpps:  I did my 20 10cent LUs of all AZ/LaR, but 100% from the Murray side.    about 1/2 with Kupp as the LaR, and 1/2 with Henderson.  

Then for my 3max I did one of each from the "top stacks" list/leverage:  Buff, KC, Seattle.     For my SE I attacked the KC/Philly game with Hurts.  

 

FatNate

Footballguy
Using Hurts as my favorite QB.  Heavy with Kelce.  Mid-tier RBs and paying up at WR.  Lots of Jets for on defense. 
 

Good luck all!

 

SeniorVBDStudent

Footballguy
Using Hurts as my favorite QB.  Heavy with Kelce.  Mid-tier RBs and paying up at WR.  Lots of Jets for on defense. 
 

Good luck all!
me too, except WFT and Dallas vs Jets.  also switched one of my Hurts' stacks to a Mahomes stack.  

Ridiculous exposure to Kelce (>50%), Gibson, Aaron Jones and Stefon Diggs (>25% each).  Will probably wipe out my meager FD balance (~$75).  Then again I have 4 entries into Nascar at Talladega, so maybe it will all work out, lol.

 

Solomon Grundy

Footballguy
Awful week with too many nobodys scoring multiple TDs. $205 in, $80 out. Best LU finished 14,405 out of 608k.

Going with Evans (MVP) - Brady, Fournette, Mac Jones, Brandon Bolden for the late game to HOPEFULLY make up the losses.

 
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FatNate

Footballguy
Not my best week.  100 in and 30 out.  I had a pretty tight player pool this week and the value I used was bad.  Four weeks in and I have not had a good week yet.  I will keep adjusting and move on to week five.

 

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