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FanDuel - Week 2 (1 Viewer)

FatNate

Footballguy
Anyone have any luck last week? Splitsville for me. Another week of research ahead. What say you?
 
Won all my 50/50s last week. Initial thoughts this week.

QB: Lance/Ryan/Goff look like fairly good values
RB: probably continue to pay up for JT. Javonte, CEH look like good values. Darrel Henderson, Devin Singletary low $ punts.
WR: need to see CB matchups but lots of bounce back options to take advantage of. ARob, Renfrow, MVS all intriguing.
TE: Higbee, Waller
 
I cashed 9/12 last weekend for a solid profit. Whiffed hard on Pitts, but Barkley/Jefferson/Chase/Gibson carried hard. My budget QB Jameis put together a strong second half and I got good value from basement DEF Minnesota vs. an overrated GB offense.

Will be going back to the Pitts well again. Massive price correction on Barkley makes him scary in W2. Probably fading him this week.

Overall, will be targeting high likely volume vs. cost.
 
Current lineup holding my places... Carr, Mixon, Patterson, Javonte Williams, Adams, St Brown, C. Samuel, Albert O., SEA

EDIT - I probably need to find $800 to get to the CIN defense, so I need to downgrade somewhere...likely St. Brown comes out to do this.
 
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FanDuel Only. I am spending more time with a new tool this week. I am hoping it helps me shrink my player pool. I will to try to post some more thoughts later today.

Current placeholder:
Lance - Gibson - Henderson - Patterson- Nico - Chase - Deebo - Hockenson - Bengals
 
My player pool will look something like this:

QB - Lamar, Carr, Stafford, Russ, Murray
RB - CMC, Mixon, Taylor, Henderson, Kamara, Barkley, Fournette, Swift, Conner, Jav Williams
WR - Kupp, Adams, Deebo, A St Brown, Hill, Julio, DJ Moore, Kirk, Chase, Sutton, Pittman
TE - Hockerson, Pitts, Waller, Andrews
D - Bengals, 49ers, Browns

Trying a new method this week. Seems like it might lead to very chalky lineups. I will be stacking QB with one or two other players from their team. I will also be using a run back for several of the QB matchups. Might lead to looking something like this:

Lamar - Henderson/Taylor/Mixon - Renfrow/Robinson/Moore - Pitts - Bengals
 
Looking at week 2 I am amazed by how many ways to go building lineups this week. With a lot of "name" QBs of the Main Slate, we can go so many ways. Do you want to go value QBs and pay up for RB and WR? Maybe TE? Good thing there are plenty of value options everywhere.

Looking at the games, only ARI@LV looks to be a shoot-out. WAS@DET also has interesting options (go figure). LA Rams have the highest implied total on the slate and Cooper Kupp is almost guaranteed to get you 20+ fantasy points. The top RBs have prime opportunities. So many choices.

QB
Kyler Murray -- With the highest total on the slate and his running ability, if I pay up for QB this is the way I'd go.
Matt Stafford -- The Super Bowl champs are smarting and looking to right the ship. With Kupp this is an easy choice for me.
Jarred Goff/Carson Wentz --- Who would think that these would be realistic choices, but they offer value if you are looking to pay up elsewhere.

RB
Johnathan Taylor -- playing the Jaguars, enough said.
Christian McCaffrey/Saquan Barkley -- Prime matchup of two of FF best. Seeing what the Panthers D didn't do against Chubb/Hunt I am all in on Saquan, even at the premium price.
Darrell Henderson/Jeff Wilson -- Should be popular, but for good reason. Quality backs in a good position. Great Value.

WR
Cooper Kupp -- Did I mention I liked Kupp this week?
Davante Adams -- New QB, same Davante. Plus the highest scoring game. Definitely
Christian Kirk -- The MAN in JAX. Still not overpriced (yet)
Drake London -- He is just one of many receivers I like under $6k.

TE
Mark Andrews -- Only safe bet at TE this week. Is he worth the extra cost? Maybe
Kyle Pitts -- Possible top target and undervalued this week IMO
Tyler Higbee -- Someone else besides Kupp is going to get catches. Right?

Sample lineup:
Stafford/Barkley/Jacobs/Kupp/DJMoore/Dortch/Pitts/Kirk/SEA
 
Odd week 2 with not many stud/dual threat Qbs on the slate, and some interesting chalk. My random gpp thoughts:

  1. Hard pass on a 20-30% owned Defense. I X'd Cinci D out of my pool for gpps. Too much variance at this position, and I figure this is a quick way to get away from a large portion of LUs. I like the idea of pairing Barkley with a much lower owned NYG D - it gets a little correlation with Barkley and pairs him with a more contrarian option since he is chalk.
  2. My favorite game is Wash/Det, and specifically the pieces and stack of QB + Chark + McLaurin. One of the quicker paced games, and those pieces I listed are all 5% or less and have some upside. You can still pair them with chalkier pieces from the game like Gibson, St. Brown, and Swift. Also makes taking chalk Rbs easier.
  3. A couple other gpp WRs I wrote down after looking at air yard %, etc. were Landry and Sutton. I will be overweight on them as well.
  4. As usual for me, RBs are the hardest to find gpp darts for, but Chubb did stand out at 6-7% to maybe use with a chalkier stack like LV.
  5. In general, I saw the ownership on QBs like Carr, Lamar, Stafford and wrote down QBs around their salary with much less ownership - Wentz, Goff, Mariota, Winston, Ryan stood out to look at harder.
 
Pay close attention to late injury status this week, especially the Tampa/NO game. Almost every Tampa WR was questionable (even Mike Evans, but he'll probably be the best play) and Kamara might be out for NO. I'm not suggesting jamming Mike Davis in your line-ups but it's important to monitor who "the next man up" is in all of these situations.

For example, with Pittman and Pierce out in Indy, Parris Campbell will get a lot of the passing volume (currently only $3700 on DraftKings).
 
Think it's a good week to go big at RB and bargain at WR/Flex. Lots of cheapish WRs with high likely targets.

I play mainly 50/50, so look for floor more than ceiling. My common plays this week:

QB - Lamar, Burrow, Carr, Tua -- all look like decent value
RB - Saquon, Mixon, Gibson, few pieces of Taylor, CMC, Jacobs, and Edmonds -- not sure about JT this week with all the Colt WR injuries
WR - Tyreek, Thomas, St. Brown, Metcalf, Cooks, Kirk, Bateman, D Moore, E Moore, Samuel -- lots of appealing options here, so I rotated pretty evenly
TE - Pitts -- literally every roster, so I'm all-in there, zero diversification
DEF - NE, SEA, JAX -- Feel like Indy could be in trouble this week, so Jax for the lowest price appealed to me. Can they slow down JT?

Highest ownership % is Pitts and then probably DJ Moore, Jac DEF, and Gibson after that. Will be in trouble if they flop.
 
Proably a break even day between the two sites, which I will always take since I seem to be worse at nfl than mlb.

Also I just want to report that having 150lus doesn't make it any easier to hit big in gpps. I did 150 in the 5cent gpp today on FD, and stuck to what I posted above: I had 25% Tua stacks and 45% of Wash/Det game stacks. Faded Cinci D, and instead had 20% each of TB, NE, and Jax. My highest 2 WRs were St. Brown and Tyreek at 33% and 25% respectively. 20%+ of Chubb. Anyway, I thought I had some good core ideas in that contest, but no LUs hitting big. Looking at other players, but i am sure my 20% of Chark's 0 pts was step 1 to why I was held back a bit.
 
Think it's a good week to go big at RB and bargain at WR/Flex. Lots of cheapish WRs with high likely targets.

I play mainly 50/50, so look for floor more than ceiling. My common plays this week:

QB - Lamar, Burrow, Carr, Tua -- all look like decent value
RB - Saquon, Mixon, Gibson, few pieces of Taylor, CMC, Jacobs, and Edmonds -- not sure about JT this week with all the Colt WR injuries
WR - Tyreek, Thomas, St. Brown, Metcalf, Cooks, Kirk, Bateman, D Moore, E Moore, Samuel -- lots of appealing options here, so I rotated pretty evenly
TE - Pitts -- literally every roster, so I'm all-in there, zero diversification
DEF - NE, SEA, JAX -- Feel like Indy could be in trouble this week, so Jax for the lowest price appealed to me. Can they slow down JT?

Highest ownership % is Pitts and then probably DJ Moore, Jac DEF, and Gibson after that. Will be in trouble if they flop.

Welp, finished 1/100 and 2/100...in two different 50/50s. Bittersweet!

10/13 cashing today for a solid ROI. Mostly 50/50s with a few tiny GPPs mixed in. Nearly doubled my account these last two weeks, which I can't complain about even if it's not as sexy as hitting a big score all at once. Grinding up a little roll.

Smashed it today with Tua/Lamar/budget WRs/Jax D. Enough to overcome spotty RB numbers and a 100% dud from Pitts.

I think I had the right approach going into the week, pairing budget WRs with premium RBs. I just didn't go nuclear anywhere because I missed the big RB hit of the week (Chubb). Makes me wonder...who is even the bankable star RB these days? RB landscape in FF looks as bad as I can ever remember in terms of reliable top guys. Taylor's on a dud of a team. CMC is volatile. Saquon is on a dud of a team. There's just nobody you can look at and say, "Yeah, I'm getting 20 points from this guy today" ala vintage Peterson, Tomlinson, Faulk, etc.

May scale back my investment in the coming weeks as rankings and prices begin to calcify. I've always felt the first couple weeks of the season is the best time to go big because of delayed reactions on certain players/teams.
 
Odd week 2 with not many stud/dual threat Qbs on the slate, and some interesting chalk. My random gpp thoughts:

  1. Hard pass on a 20-30% owned Defense. I X'd Cinci D out of my pool for gpps. Too much variance at this position, and I figure this is a quick way to get away from a large portion of LUs. I like the idea of pairing Barkley with a much lower owned NYG D - it gets a little correlation with Barkley and pairs him with a more contrarian option since he is chalk.
  2. My favorite game is Wash/Det, and specifically the pieces and stack of QB + Chark + McLaurin. One of the quicker paced games, and those pieces I listed are all 5% or less and have some upside. You can still pair them with chalkier pieces from the game like Gibson, St. Brown, and Swift. Also makes taking chalk Rbs easier.
  3. A couple other gpp WRs I wrote down after looking at air yard %, etc. were Landry and Sutton. I will be overweight on them as well.
  4. As usual for me, RBs are the hardest to find gpp darts for, but Chubb did stand out at 6-7% to maybe use with a chalkier stack like LV.
  5. In general, I saw the ownership on QBs like Carr, Lamar, Stafford and wrote down QBs around their salary with much less ownership - Wentz, Goff, Mariota, Winston, Ryan stood out to look at harder.
Good to have you back. I always like reading your thoughts.
 
Think it's a good week to go big at RB and bargain at WR/Flex. Lots of cheapish WRs with high likely targets.

I play mainly 50/50, so look for floor more than ceiling. My common plays this week:

QB - Lamar, Burrow, Carr, Tua -- all look like decent value
RB - Saquon, Mixon, Gibson, few pieces of Taylor, CMC, Jacobs, and Edmonds -- not sure about JT this week with all the Colt WR injuries
WR - Tyreek, Thomas, St. Brown, Metcalf, Cooks, Kirk, Bateman, D Moore, E Moore, Samuel -- lots of appealing options here, so I rotated pretty evenly
TE - Pitts -- literally every roster, so I'm all-in there, zero diversification
DEF - NE, SEA, JAX -- Feel like Indy could be in trouble this week, so Jax for the lowest price appealed to me. Can they slow down JT?

Highest ownership % is Pitts and then probably DJ Moore, Jac DEF, and Gibson after that. Will be in trouble if they flop.

Welp, finished 1/100 and 2/100...in two different 50/50s. Bittersweet!

10/13 cashing today for a solid ROI. Mostly 50/50s with a few tiny GPPs mixed in. Nearly doubled my account these last two weeks, which I can't complain about even if it's not as sexy as hitting a big score all at once. Grinding up a little roll.

Smashed it today with Tua/Lamar/budget WRs/Jax D. Enough to overcome spotty RB numbers and a 100% dud from Pitts.

I think I had the right approach going into the week, pairing budget WRs with premium RBs. I just didn't go nuclear anywhere because I missed the big RB hit of the week (Chubb). Makes me wonder...who is even the bankable star RB these days? RB landscape in FF looks as bad as I can ever remember in terms of reliable top guys. Taylor's on a dud of a team. CMC is volatile. Saquon is on a dud of a team. There's just nobody you can look at and say, "Yeah, I'm getting 20 points from this guy today" ala vintage Peterson, Tomlinson, Faulk, etc.

May scale back my investment in the coming weeks as rankings and prices begin to calcify. I've always felt the first couple weeks of the season is the best time to go big because of delayed reactions on certain players/teams.

Taylor and CMC are still the top two, imo.

I think Taylor really needs Pittman back to take some pressure off. He woke up a little in the second half but the passing game wasn't doing much.

For CMC, I'm hoping this performance lowers his price a little. He'll be fine. Baker didn't look great but I think part of that was due to the Oline struggles.

Nice hits on Lamar and Tua, btw.
 
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50 in and 25 out this week. I mostly missed at RB. Taylor and Mixon hurt me. I hit on several 5k-6k WRs. Lamar was great, but Lance got hurt.
 
Couple games tonight. Anyone have any suggestions for the two game slate? I am going to fade Allen and Hurts in my one lineup. I am starting with Cousins and building around JJ and Cook. This is my way of differentiating, right now. I figure Allen and Hurts will be 40% owned or more, but I have not seen projected ownership yet. I will make final lineup decisions once I see some projected ownership numbers. I like Thielen, Smith, Knox, and McKenzie.
 
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Couple games tonight. Anyone have any suggestions for the two game slate? I am going to fade Allen and Hurts in my one lineup. I am starting with Cousins and building around JJ and Cook. This is my way of differentiating, right now. I figure Allen and Hurts will be 40% owned or more, but I have not seen projected ownership yet. I will make final lineup decisions once I see some projected ownership numbers. I like Thielen, Smith, Knox, and McKenzie.
Early ownership expected to be about 38% on Allen and Hurts. I think Allen will be slightly more owned than Hurts. I also think Allen has the safest floor. I am not playing either. I was surprised that Cook is expected at 70% ownerships, so I am not playing him. Stacking the WRs from the Vikings with Cousins. Good luck to everyone.
 
I don't usually dabble in Mondays, but with two games on the slate, may toss a couple bucks at this just to have a sweat.

Thinking TEN/BUF will be pretty lopsided. Would not expect anything much from Henry, but Tannehill and co. could thrive in trash time playing catch up. I do like Treylon Burks at $5.5k for that reason. Not totally sold on the player, but thinking he will be fed some targets.

The WR1 discussion is interesting because JJ has been utilized more than Diggs dating back to last season and should justify a slight premium. The Bills seem to have more of a "ride the hot hand" offense. However, with Davis out, Diggs suddenly starts to look very appealing. So maybe you fade Jefferson this week to save a little money and grab Diggs instead.

Thinking Knox and Smith could be nice buys after duds in week one. Too important to never be involved this season. Crowder looks like a potential cheap flex value because of the BUF WR list being shorter.

Think my overall strategy is just to fade DH and load up on Bills/Eagles/Vikings. Not very specific, but it's something.
 
Couple games tonight. Anyone have any suggestions for the two game slate? I am going to fade Allen and Hurts in my one lineup. I am starting with Cousins and building around JJ and Cook. This is my way of differentiating, right now. I figure Allen and Hurts will be 40% owned or more, but I have not seen projected ownership yet. I will make final lineup decisions once I see some projected ownership numbers. I like Thielen, Smith, Knox, and McKenzie.
Early ownership expected to be about 38% on Allen and Hurts. I think Allen will be slightly more owned than Hurts. I also think Allen has the safest floor. I am not playing either. I was surprised that Cook is expected at 70% ownerships, so I am not playing him. Stacking the WRs from the Vikings with Cousins. Good luck to everyone.
Failure. My strategy did not work. Hope everyone else faired better.
 
Simplifying things seems to be working well for me. Vegas + volume is really all I look at in detail. Focus the majority of your players on teams projected to score 25+, and then just look for the high volume guys. In Week 2, I saw that Ertz and Dortch were two really low dollar, relatively high volume players so far this year, both on a fairly high projected scoring team. Let me build a solid team around them.

This is for cash games.
 

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