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FanDuel Week 9 (1 Viewer)

I wouldn't play both, but i'm signing up for Freeman. Should be plenty of touches against a defense that's going to be overexposed. Plus Freeman is third in the league in carries inside the 5, and San Francisco has faced the second most carries inside the 5 in the league. He's a good bet to score, and game script is absolutely in his favor.

 
I don't understand the Gates fear. He played last week with no practice. He's practiced twice this week so far, and he just lost the biggest competition for targets on the roster. I bet Rivers throws his way 15 times on Monday night...

 
JFS171 said:
I don't understand the Gates fear. He played last week with no practice. He's practiced twice this week so far, and he just lost the biggest competition for targets on the roster. I bet Rivers throws his way 15 times on Monday night...
Click to expand...
Fears not the right word. I expect him to have a good night, but I'm counting to 120. And I just think Watson, Olsen, or miller in that range don't have the extra, unnecessary, risk. I hope he explodes though, he's on my big qualifier lineups
 
I'm rolling with Langford over Williams or McFadden. "Trust your research. Trust the numbers" they say. We'll see how that pans out in this case.

 
If you're playing Thursday GPP and not fading the game, the two stacks I like are AJ Green-Duke Johnson (if the game ends up being higher scoring) and Jeremy Hill-Bengals D (if the Bengals control the game like they want to).

 
Fwiw, Langford is in my Sunday plans. I want hill tonight and I'd rather lock in McFadden tonight for some reason. Inguess it's the "numbers" spit him out from what I see.

 
My ultimate Thurs cash lineup with ownership numbers from an 852 person double up:

Eli 8.8%

Ingram 16.5%

McFadden 13.7%

Antonio 21.5%

Jeffery 31.9%

Crabtree 27.5%

Gates17.3%

Boswell 5.2%

Cincy 18.0%

 
Tennessee_ATO said:
My ultimate Thurs cash lineup with ownership numbers from an 852 person double up:

Eli 8.8%

Ingram 16.5%

McFadden 13.7%

Antonio 21.5%

Jeffery 31.9%

Crabtree 27.5%

Gates17.3%

Boswell 5.2%

Cincy 18.0%
Click to expand...
Does anyone know if theres math on this? Taking the ownership percentages from the Thursday games and building the lineup that is the highest % owned possible. I would be very curious to know what that lineup looks like points wise on average

 
NixonMask said:
Tennessee_ATO said:
My ultimate Thurs cash lineup with ownership numbers from an 852 person double up:

Eli 8.8%

Ingram 16.5%

McFadden 13.7%

Antonio 21.5%

Jeffery 31.9%

Crabtree 27.5%

Gates17.3%

Boswell 5.2%

Cincy 18.0%
Click to expand...
Does anyone know if theres math on this? Taking the ownership percentages from the Thursday games and building the lineup that is the highest % owned possible. I would be very curious to know what that lineup looks like points wise on average
Click to expand...
I don't know, but it would be interesting. There's a ton of chalk in that lineup right there. Aside from QB and PK, I might have the highest percentage plays (at least in that 1 double up). That's why I posted those percentages.

 
NixonMask said:
Tennessee_ATO said:
My ultimate Thurs cash lineup with ownership numbers from an 852 person double up:

Eli 8.8%

Ingram 16.5%

McFadden 13.7%

Antonio 21.5%

Jeffery 31.9%

Crabtree 27.5%

Gates17.3%

Boswell 5.2%

Cincy 18.0%
Click to expand...
Does anyone know if theres math on this? Taking the ownership percentages from the Thursday games and building the lineup that is the highest % owned possible. I would be very curious to know what that lineup looks like points wise on average
Click to expand...
Chad Parsons does an article on it every week called Projecting ownership %. He puts a lineup in the end of it with the highest % players for a cash lineup. It has done pretty good success wise in cash games.

 
Not the start I was looking for from Hill. I'm done with rostering matchup plays when the guy getting the great matchup has struggled all year. It bit me with Lacy earlier this year against San Diego, and bit me last night with Hill.

He won't kill me in cash games, but he certainly didn't help me out any either.

 
Tennessee_ATO said:
NixonMask said:
Tennessee_ATO said:
My ultimate Thurs cash lineup with ownership numbers from an 852 person double up:

Eli 8.8%

Ingram 16.5%

McFadden 13.7%

Antonio 21.5%

Jeffery 31.9%

Crabtree 27.5%

Gates17.3%

Boswell 5.2%

Cincy 18.0%
Click to expand...
Does anyone know if theres math on this? Taking the ownership percentages from the Thursday games and building the lineup that is the highest % owned possible. I would be very curious to know what that lineup looks like points wise on average
Click to expand...
I don't know, but it would be interesting. There's a ton of chalk in that lineup right there. Aside from QB and PK, I might have the highest percentage plays (at least in that 1 double up). That's why I posted those percentages.
Click to expand...
In a same sized double-up (may be the same one as Jeffery's ownership matches):

Tyrod - 5.6%

Freeman - 33.6%

Hill - 15.0%

Edelman - 14.9%

Jeffery - 31.9%

Stevie Johnson - 24.9%

Gates - 17.3%

Janikowski - 9.7%

Broncos - 15.7%

 
Loipz said:
All in on Denver for turnover prone Luck.
Click to expand...
Getting close to that for me also after reading that TY Hilton is Very Doubtful to play..

Luck + Bad OL + No running Game + no TY Hilton :eek:

 
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Thats a whole bunch of jets. I dont trust them after oakland made fools of them last week. Also, bortes is going damn good this year. Looks like you are pretty heavy on Edelman, bryant, and boswell.

I am in the same grouping as you with your RB core. I am liking all those same picks. I like your Qbs except for winston, could be a good gpp play though. I have a feeling this will be the week for CJ anderson. They are playing the colts which are a train wreck. Denvers d is sick and if denver gets up early I could see them running a ton this game.

I have no faith in woodhead as a cash play. He is either boom or bust. What gets me is there are reports that Rivers has no trust in Gordon, yet they came out heavy with him last week.

Ill be setting all my LU's sunday morning, well I hope to be. I have a wedding I am in tomorrow. We will see how that goes, might have to make LU's tonight just as a precaution. lol

 
Not really about faith in my kicker spot honestly, Boswell has been reliable and cheap. Hes in a high powered offense that on occasion stalls.

I agree about Bortles having a good year, and I'm probably the furthest thing from a Jets fan, but I respect their defense and Jacksonville is prone to making mistakes. It really came down to whether I would rather take a risk on NYJ and fit the guys I wanted under the cap or if I wanted to take risks on Atlanta/NE.

Ye of little faith. Danny is the light.

 
My cash LU:

Carr

Freeman, Ingram

D.Thomas, Crabtree, St. Johnson

G.Olsen

Gost

Atlanta

I will throw a whole $1 at a gpp and go all in with my Pats again:

Brady

D.Williams, CJ Anderson

R.Cobb, A.Cooper, LaFell

Gronk

Lambo

Patriots

 
Is it a sure thing that Revis will be on Robinson? If so, I really like Hurns.

I have Alshon Jeffery in 80% of my lineups :unsure:

Also heavily exposed to Decker, Gates, Snead, Stevie J, Langford, and Freeman.

The lineup I"m loving:

Brady

Ivory

Langford

Stevie

LaFell

Alshon

Gronk

Gould

Falcons

The "this could go horribly wrong" lineup

T-Mobile

Gurley

Martin

Martavis

Alshon

Snead

D Walker

McManus

Broncos

 
Threw a 1PM only lineup to go with my two thursday ones...

Brady

Ingram

D Williams

Decker

Crabtree

M Bryant

Gronk

Boswell

NO (gulp)

 
Feel badly because I have not "given back" since Week 1. Well, 3rd degree sprains to your MCL, ACL and PCL finds you with more idle time than you would like so wanted to contribute this weekend. Fan Duel only stuff ...

For the large game slate ... I keep arriving at Freeman/Ingram for cash. Has anyone come to this same conclusion?

Langford and D Williams are the public play and it frees up money but just not sure how I feel about either. Loss leaders but I think both are over priced on Fan Duel.

For 1 PM Only ... potential disaster avoiding Brady but ...

Brees

Ingram/Blount

Brown/Crabtree/LaFell

Gronk

Boswell (4500 K of choice)

Jets

Big Ben

Ingram/DWilliams

Brown/Crabtree/Lafell

Gronk

Forbath

Jets

LaFell is my favorite GPP WR3 this week. I think the ROI he presents in the 1 pm only pushes him into the cash area. You have share of the Steelers, Saints, Pats and Raiders offenses.

Sun -Monday ... about as chalk as there is, as I compared this to all the ownership data I have access to ...

Brady

Freeman/Langford

Brown/Crabtree/Johnson

Gates

Forbath

Jets

  • Not a fan of Langford for cash. Prefer ingram
  • Little unsettled on Gates but loss leader and provides some security
  • Cannot arrive at a place I like the Pats or Falcons over the Jets and not thrilled paying up for the Broncos
  • That line-up is a Brady switch from having the Broncos and ingram
Would look like ... if ASJ plays, who I think becomes one of the top TE moves this weekend ...

Big Ben

Freeman/Ingram

Brown/Crabtree/Johnson

ASJ

Forbath

Broncos

  • There are quick pivots to Pats/Falcons/Jets to upgrade either ASJ or Big Ben
  • Drop from Big Ben to Eli, Carr or Winston
  • I am not against stacking a QB/WR in a cash game with a high implied total
Eli (Concerning for cash)

Freeman/Ingram

Brown/Crabtree/Johnson

Gates

4800 K

Pats (Pivot to Falcons or Jets)

Jeffery concerns me this week.

Jason Verrett regardless of how PFF, Football Outsiders or numberFire has him "rated" has slowed down to stuffed everyone he has faced except A Cooper. He does come into the game with a gimpy groin and was limited at Friday's practice. So was Weddle; B Flowers; L Green and 2 of the starting OL. Jeffery will see volume but he is not the "lock" he has been the last 2 weeks nor is this a lay-up. Verrett can play and I think Jeffery has a hard time hitting value this weekend. For my money Edelman for $100/A Brown for $800 more are both better plays for cash.

B Flowers is the turnstile in this defense and he draws M Wilson.

Royal and Forte are out. Love Wilson for GPP WR3. Right behind LaFell. Bears are also reasonable defending the TE. You couple their ability to slow the TE along with the injury to Green AND the OL problems and .... Gates, who is not a hand down type player, could be forced to block more than not. Those same OL problems surfaced against the Ravens and Woodhead was forced to chip/stay in to help. Bears are not rolling out the Fearsome Foursome on their defensive front but that many injuries at OL and TE tally up. Those guys fail to suit up and things are going to change on the usage for Gates and Woodhead.

It bodes well for S Johnson

Lots and lots and lots of quick drags or slants ... lot and lots ... all night. Rivers is going to have to get the ball out of his hand a little quicker than he'd like.

I expect a fair dose of M Gordon

Chargers, if they have that many starters on the OL and Green OUT, are going to need to slow down the Bears D. Run will do that and I think Gordon has a solid game; hits value and scores this week. My favorite GPP RB

I also think it is assumptive to think John Fox, who is OLD SCHOOL, is going to give Langford 3rd down work or all the work over the veteran A Smith.

Fox doesn't play rookies unless forced. The match-up is statistically speaking cotton candy and rainbows and gold for Langford . I just worry Fox goes Fox and you see more A Smith than expected. Or a little K Carey especially the first time Langford whiffs on a blocking assignment. I would just hate to have my cash line-ups riding on a 10-12 point night from Langford to cross the finish line and, suddenly, he is getting half to a quarter of the workload we were all expecting. And my gut is telling me this is more likely than not

I just link some of the game script assumptions are off, which is why I prefer A Brown this week to Jeffery. Would not be shocked at all to see M Bennett outscore Gates in this game either

One of my favorite GPP stacks of the week ... Cutler/Wilson/Bennett. Frees up A LOT of cash and it would take very little for these guys to hit the value needed. Underdogs in a competitive game and projected to score 20 plus on the road minus Forte ... fade Jeffery and take Wilson or Wilson and Bennett.

My next favorite is Crab Legs/ASJ, assuming ASJ plays. There is something about 2 really bad defensive football teams with adequate offenses playing one another. MANY fantasy points will be scored in the NYG v TAM game.

In general and this is painful to type ... I sort of like Winston for cash tomorrow too. He's hitting value with 100% certainty if ASJ plays

 
WhoDat, great comments thanks.

I will be making some modest reductions to my Alshon and Gates exposure having considered your comments.

Re: Ingram, although Ten is no great shakes against RBs, NO is "pass activated" and TEN is fairly stout against the pass. I like the under in this matchup, unless TEN players are going to fold up shop because their coach got canned. I suspect they will still come to play.

I'm almost with you on crablegs...I just can't pull the trigger. I'll take exposure via the muscle hampster.

 
I've got a strong hunch the Rodgers lights it up tomorrow and makes a strong gpp play.

Rodgers

Freeman

Woodhead

Cobb

Jones

Bryant

Gates

Den K and D

 
I don't understand the love for the Jets this week. Two double-digit scoring weeks all year. Jags haven't exactly been an easy out, either (3 strong DST performances v. 5 mediocre weeks). Plus, Jets have a bum QB and OL, gimp wideouts...this doesn't play well from a game script perspective. Seems the perception of the Jets and Jags this week is very different than reality. What am I missing?

 
My favorite FanDuel players this week:

Alshon Jeffery

Steve Johnson

Michael Crabtree

Mark Ingram

Deangelo Williams

Jordan Reed

Jonathan Stewart

 
I'm scared now. Watching NFL Insiders this morning and Matt Berry just put in almost my identical lineup.

 
Cash lineup for Snday-Monday:

David Carr

Davonte Freeman

Mark Ingram

Antonio Brown

Alston Jeffery

Stevie Johnson

Jacob Tamme

Sebastian Janikowski

Eagles DST

Tamme and Carr are the concerns for me, but both are so darn cheap you can load up everywhere else. Prefer the Eagles over the Jets this week. I want to see the Jets bounce back with a dominant performance. Tamme is seeing a ton of volume everytime Hankerson is out. Carr coming to the east coast is a concern, but I think worst case he's chasing the scoreboard and puts up points on volume.

 
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