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Fantastic source Mike Clay's 2025 NFL Projection Guide *2025 UPDATE* (4 Viewers)

Desert_Power said:
Some interesting things that stuck out:

Mark Andrews as #1 TE

Hill at #7 and Waddle at #11 in Miami

Predicting a slight decline in Eagles rushing yards even though they ran more/better as the season went on

Has Pitts and London at virtually identical production
Click to expand...
And Tua is only #19.

 
Kinda breezed by it on an initial pass, but boy Nick Chubb at RB21 is extremely bold. 

231-1130-7 rushing

27-230-1 receiving

That feels unbelievably low to me. The offense should be scoring more TDs with Watson at QB, and Chubb has been better than those numbers whenever he's been healthy regardless of how well the offense has been around him. 

8 TDs feels especially low. That's his career low, and seems like his absolute floor. 

Maybe I'm way off base, but I think Chubb could actually have a career year this year. His YPC has gone up about half a yard since Stefanski took over, and now Watson is here which should eliminate 8 man fronts. I think Chubb has 1500-15 upside, and should be a 1st round pick. 

 
BREAKING!

Mike Clay updated NFL unit grades for EVERY NFL team.

----------------------------------------

Mike Clay@MikeClayNFL

Just did a thorough sweep of the 2022 NFL Unit Grades.

Here's the latest update:

LINK to chart of unit grades for EVERY NFL team

-------------

Ryan Kontra@J_Pup7

What’s the comment box on browns qb say

Mike Clay@MikeClayNFL

For those asking, the Browns QB grade is roughly half Brissett and half Watson for now. Jacoby will be a Bottom 5 starting QB if he fills in and that’s reflected here.

 
Took a look at the current Chargers projections. Comments on offensive roster:

  • I expect 25 offensive players on the final roster, including 9 OL, which leaves room for 16 skill players
  • He is not showing QB3 Stick, but I expect him to make the final roster
  • 16 skill players very likely breaks down to 3 QBs, 4 RBs, 1 FB, 3 TEs, 5 WRs
  • So I don't think WR Moore or TE Kampmoyer will make the final roster
  • I also think rookie RB/FB Horvath makes it over Nabers; no fantasy impact
Other notable projections:

  • He predicts a significant improvement for WR3 Palmer: 49/33/353/4 as 2021 rookie to 83/54/631/5
  • Conversely, he predicts regression for WR4 Guyton: 48/31/448/3 in 2021 to 24/14/193/2
  • I could possibly get behind the Palmer projection, but I am skeptical about Guyton, barring injury, since he is their strongest deep threat, and I am expecting the Chargers to throw deep more often in 2022

    In 2021, 9.5% of Herbert's attempts were 20+ yards beyond the LOS, which was #29 in the league among passers with at least 20 deep attempts, even though he is great at deep passing (#6T in PFF deep passing grade; #8 in NFL passer rating, #4 in adjusted completion percentage)

Good stuff.

 
I try to take these things with a grain of salt. New England added Davonte Parker and drafted Tyquan Thornton at WR. They are getting James White back and drafted Pierre Strong and Kevin Harris at RB. Mac Jones and all the guys they added last year have had a full year to get integrated into and more familiar with the system. Their one major personnel loss was JC Jackson (who I think we will see was aided by playing in the NE defensive scheme).

But Clay projects NE will have -10% in rushing yards, -5% in total yards, -10% in points scored, and +30% in points allowed. Their net scoring is projected to drop by 136 points, from +159 to +23. Yeah, I get it. They didn't look that great against the Bills. But not many teams are the Bills. Clay still projects NE to win 9.3 games, which seems odd given how far a drop off he is projecting for them. The defense got younger and faster (who knows if that will make them better or not).

As I mentioned when Clay's initial projections came out. By far, the Pats most efficient and productive receiver last year was Kendrick Bourne, and some people are projecting him to see more targets and potentially produce close to a WR2 level (if not better). Yet Clay has Bourne crashing and burning from WR32 last year to a projected WR87 this year.

IMO, the problem with making NE projections is this. If the Pats are not as good defensively this year (a "more probable than not" outcome), NE is not just going to play as conservatively as last year. They won't have drives with 1 passing attempt. They will adjust and throttle up the offense more. That's why I think the NE offense will have to throw more and run less (unless they are salting away a decent sized lead, which may not be all that often).

From Year 1 to Year 2 as a starter, Brady saw his numbers increase by 900 / 10 without much improvement in his supporting cast on offensive, mostly because the team let him throw 8 more passes a game (from 30 to 38 . . . basically a 25% increase). I'm not saying Jones is Brady, but I do think that we may see something similar (NE threw the ball 31 times a game last season). If Jones sees a 20% increase in attempts (and performs at a similar level as last year), that would put him at a fringe QB1 level / high end QB2 level. Jones was QB19 last season. A lot of places have Jones ranked in the mid-20s. Clay has him at QB26. I'm not buying into the "they have the worst offensive coaches in the league" narrative. They still have BB.

We'll see how it plays out.

 
UPDATED.
Mike Clay's Projection Guide for every team/every player gets updated constantly.
Impressive with so many players being cut, moved to different lists, traded, injured, and added to practice squads.
---------------------
Mike Clay
@MikeClayNFL

This is updated again to reflect today's news, though some of the corresponding cuts are still TBA. With the expanded OL section, I'd say roughly 98% of the 1,696 current active players are included in the doc (sorry, long snappers)

Mike Clay's 2022 NFL Projection Guide
 
These are always close enough for me to start mapping out my expectations. I click through depth charts team by team at positions where I’m not sure and review his takes on splitting the pies. Also helps me to set up tiers in my head.
 
Big fan of Clay's work, he's one of my favorite fantasy analysts. That said one major difference I see when comparing ranks/projections with him, is that I think he's extremely conservative when it comes to rookies or young players coming off down seasons just a few examples:

QB20-Anthony Richardson, that feels extremely low given his rushing ability, and the full season starter projection. I think he's a low-end QB1.
QB23-Brock Purdy, I find it interesting how much guys like Hall or Williams are docked due to injury concern, but Purdy isn't. I'm much more concerned about him than those guys.

RB60-Alexander Mattison, seems weird to project him for the least productive season of his career, given the extension. I'd be happy with him as an RB4.
RB63-Devon Achane, I think he's got the Miami backfield all wrong. Fully expecting the pecking order to be Achane/Mostert/Wilson, not the reverse.
RB84-Roschon Johnson, I'm not his biggest fan at all, but I'd easily take the over on 67 touches.
RB91-Kendre Miller, also not a huge fan of his, but 46 touches feels crazy low, especially with a short Kamara suspension factored in.

WR73-Elijah Moore, has the slot job on lock in Cleveland, and considering they traded out of round 2 to get him, I think 70 targets is basically his floor. I'd be fine with him as a WR5.
WR71-Rashod Bateman, has a rapport with Lamar, and was productive before injury last season. I think he's a lot more likely to be the #1 than the #3 in Baltimore.
WR88-Jameson Williams, I know he has the 6 game suspension, but returning to a 3.5-48.9-.3 per game average feels conservative for a clear cut #2 WR.
WR111-Marvin Mims, he's the guy Payton hand picked. He should have no problem being at least the #3 WR. I'd hammer the over on 20 catches.
WR109-Jalin Hyatt, needs to prove he can beat a jam, but he's the only real deep threat in NY. I think he's much more likely to be the #1 WR than the #5. Pounding the over on 24 catches.

TE34-Michael Mayer, Jimmy G loves throwing to the TE (even when Kittle was out the TE was involved a lot) and Mayer's competition is on his 3rd team in 3 years Austin Hooper.
TE31-Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo traded up for him and has a huge hole for anyone to step into after Diggs. I'd be shocked if he didn't blow right by Knox and put up low-end TE1 numbers.
 
NEW Fantasy Football Team Previews with ESPN's Mike Clay || Fantasy Football 2023
Jun 7, 2023 Footballguys On the Couch with Sigmund Bloom
In this episode of On The Couch, presented by @footballguys , Sigmund Bloom is joined by Mike Clay to preview the best and worst offenses for Fantasy Football in 2023
Skip around 👇
00:00 - DeAndre Hopkins
12:30 - Aaron Rodgers
23:05 - Patriots offense with Bill O'Brien at offensive coordinator
28:15 Is Kenny Pickett going to make a 2nd leap?
35:05 Will the Denver offense bounce back in year one under Sean Payton?
 
Bracie Smathers said:
UPDATE Clay releases new 2024 projections
Click to expand...
Clay is near the top of fantasy analysts whom I take their opinions very seriously. Having said that, I have a few major disagreements.

QB:
Aaron Rodgers at #9 feels incredibly high. He was QB13 his last year in GB, and that was an Achilles tear ago, for a guy who often wins via scramble drill. I'm not sure he'll be top-20.

Tua Tagovailoa at #21 feels really low. He was QB11 last year, in a season where Miami scored an inordinate amount of rush TDs.

RB:
Jonathan Brooks at #19 feels really high for a guy coming off a torn ACL in a bad offense. I'd honestly be pretty surprised if he saw 230+ touches. Like him long-term though.

Raheem Mostert at #33 feels low. He's obviously coming down from last year, but something like 1000-10 is very much doable. Might just be low on the Dolphins offense.

Devin Singletary at #34 is low in my eyes. Nothing stopping him from 250+ touches, doesn't really matter if the offense sucks with that workload.

Jerome Ford at #44 seems low. We've heard nothing to expect Chubb to be ready to go at the start of the year, and Ford was a decent RB2 at times last year, when the Browns offense was very banged up. I'd certainly rather take a shot on Ford than say, Gibson or Dobbins.

WR:
Michael Pittman at #12 feels really high to me. I don't see all the short catches happening at anywhere near the frequency of last year with Richardson at QB, and with Mitchell/healthy Downs. Truthfully, I think he could fall to WR3 territory.

Calvin Ridley at #23 feels very high to me. No reason to think he outproduces Hopkins, and no reason to think Levis can support 2 1000-yard WRs.

Chris Godwin at #27 might be the most egregious to me. He's a very old 28. He doesn't get downfield or break tackles like he used to. I think WR3 is wishful thinking, and I wouldn't be shocked if he was losing snaps to Jalen McMillan down the stretch.

George Pickens at #33 feels extremely low. He went for 1100-5 in about the worst circumstances you can have. He's had an OC upgrade, a QB upgrade, and target hog Diontae Johnson is gone. I know I'm higher than most on Pickens, but I don't see much difference between him and Olave. I honestly probably prefer Pickens, who I think could be a borderline WR1.

Ladd McConkey at #51 seems really low to me. I've kinda been driving the bandwagon since January, but he went to an ideal landing spot, with a great QB, and little to no target competition. Yes, the Chargers want to be less pass heavy, but its no lock they can be, and when they do air it out he's likely target #1, maybe even week 1.

TE:
David Njoku at #6 seems high. The overwhelming majority of his production came with Joe Flacco. Watson doesn't target the TE that much. I don't think he's a top-10 TE with Watson. Maybe if Winston takes over, if Watson gets hurt again?

Kyle Pitts at #9 feels low to me. He's had as bad of QB play as anyone in the NFL the last 2 years. He went for 1000 yards as a rookie when he had an NFL starter caliber QB, and Cousins is probably better than 2021 Matt Ryan. He's still only 24, and Jonnu is gone. The top-5 upside hasn't gone anywhere and his situation has massively improved.

Hunter Henry is low at #21. Yes, he's boring, and has a limited ceiling, but he's also possibly the #1 pass catcher on his team. Personally, I have more interest in Henry than guys like Schultz or Kmet who are looking at sizeable volume decreases as the #4 options.
 
travdogg said:
Bracie Smathers said:
UPDATE Clay releases new 2024 projections
Click to expand...
Clay is near the top of fantasy analysts whom I take their opinions very seriously. Having said that, I have a few major disagreements.

QB:
Aaron Rodgers at #9 feels incredibly high. He was QB13 his last year in GB, and that was an Achilles tear ago, for a guy who often wins via scramble drill. I'm not sure he'll be top-20.

Tua Tagovailoa at #21 feels really low. He was QB11 last year, in a season where Miami scored an inordinate amount of rush TDs.

RB:
Jonathan Brooks at #19 feels really high for a guy coming off a torn ACL in a bad offense. I'd honestly be pretty surprised if he saw 230+ touches. Like him long-term though.

Raheem Mostert at #33 feels low. He's obviously coming down from last year, but something like 1000-10 is very much doable. Might just be low on the Dolphins offense.

Devin Singletary at #34 is low in my eyes. Nothing stopping him from 250+ touches, doesn't really matter if the offense sucks with that workload.

Jerome Ford at #44 seems low. We've heard nothing to expect Chubb to be ready to go at the start of the year, and Ford was a decent RB2 at times last year, when the Browns offense was very banged up. I'd certainly rather take a shot on Ford than say, Gibson or Dobbins.

WR:
Michael Pittman at #12 feels really high to me. I don't see all the short catches happening at anywhere near the frequency of last year with Richardson at QB, and with Mitchell/healthy Downs. Truthfully, I think he could fall to WR3 territory.

Calvin Ridley at #23 feels very high to me. No reason to think he outproduces Hopkins, and no reason to think Levis can support 2 1000-yard WRs.

Chris Godwin at #27 might be the most egregious to me. He's a very old 28. He doesn't get downfield or break tackles like he used to. I think WR3 is wishful thinking, and I wouldn't be shocked if he was losing snaps to Jalen McMillan down the stretch.

George Pickens at #33 feels extremely low. He went for 1100-5 in about the worst circumstances you can have. He's had an OC upgrade, a QB upgrade, and target hog Diontae Johnson is gone. I know I'm higher than most on Pickens, but I don't see much difference between him and Olave. I honestly probably prefer Pickens, who I think could be a borderline WR1.

Ladd McConkey at #51 seems really low to me. I've kinda been driving the bandwagon since January, but he went to an ideal landing spot, with a great QB, and little to no target competition. Yes, the Chargers want to be less pass heavy, but its no lock they can be, and when they do air it out he's likely target #1, maybe even week 1.

TE:
David Njoku at #6 seems high. The overwhelming majority of his production came with Joe Flacco. Watson doesn't target the TE that much. I don't think he's a top-10 TE with Watson. Maybe if Winston takes over, if Watson gets hurt again?

Kyle Pitts at #9 feels low to me. He's had as bad of QB play as anyone in the NFL the last 2 years. He went for 1000 yards as a rookie when he had an NFL starter caliber QB, and Cousins is probably better than 2021 Matt Ryan. He's still only 24, and Jonnu is gone. The top-5 upside hasn't gone anywhere and his situation has massively improved.

Hunter Henry is low at #21. Yes, he's boring, and has a limited ceiling, but he's also possibly the #1 pass catcher on his team. Personally, I have more interest in Henry than guys like Schultz or Kmet who are looking at sizeable volume decreases as the #4 options.
Click to expand...


great post as usual
 
Some specific projections that stood out to me...

He projects Josh Allen at 23 passing touchdowns. The same Josh Allen that has 100 passing TDs over the last three seasons (second to only Pat Mahomes). He thinks that Stafford/Mayfield/Rodgers/Herbert/Stroud/Caleb/Cousins/Goff/Purdy/Love/Tua will all throw for as many or more than Josh. Heck, he has Derek Carr at 22. Just glancing at the receiving projections on the Bills, I think he's low on Cook & Coleman's TDs and low on Shakir's ypr.

He has Bijan at fewer yards than last year and a lower Carry%. Allgeier was 3.7 ypc last year, I cannot see a world where they give him 10 carries a game again.

The teams that he projects to have TWO receivers with 1000 yards or more are the Eagles, Dolphins, Bengals, Rams and...Titans. Hopkins & Ridley barely hit 1K over 17 games and now they are competing for targets from Levis. This one definitely has my attention.
 
travdogg said:
Bracie Smathers said:
UPDATE Clay releases new 2024 projections
Click to expand...
Clay is near the top of fantasy analysts whom I take their opinions very seriously. Having said that, I have a few major disagreements.

QB:
Aaron Rodgers at #9 feels incredibly high. He was QB13 his last year in GB, and that was an Achilles tear ago, for a guy who often wins via scramble drill. I'm not sure he'll be top-20.

Tua Tagovailoa at #21 feels really low. He was QB11 last year, in a season where Miami scored an inordinate amount of rush TDs.

RB:
Jonathan Brooks at #19 feels really high for a guy coming off a torn ACL in a bad offense. I'd honestly be pretty surprised if he saw 230+ touches. Like him long-term though.

Raheem Mostert at #33 feels low. He's obviously coming down from last year, but something like 1000-10 is very much doable. Might just be low on the Dolphins offense.

Devin Singletary at #34 is low in my eyes. Nothing stopping him from 250+ touches, doesn't really matter if the offense sucks with that workload.

Jerome Ford at #44 seems low. We've heard nothing to expect Chubb to be ready to go at the start of the year, and Ford was a decent RB2 at times last year, when the Browns offense was very banged up. I'd certainly rather take a shot on Ford than say, Gibson or Dobbins.

WR:
Michael Pittman at #12 feels really high to me. I don't see all the short catches happening at anywhere near the frequency of last year with Richardson at QB, and with Mitchell/healthy Downs. Truthfully, I think he could fall to WR3 territory.

Calvin Ridley at #23 feels very high to me. No reason to think he outproduces Hopkins, and no reason to think Levis can support 2 1000-yard WRs.

Chris Godwin at #27 might be the most egregious to me. He's a very old 28. He doesn't get downfield or break tackles like he used to. I think WR3 is wishful thinking, and I wouldn't be shocked if he was losing snaps to Jalen McMillan down the stretch.

George Pickens at #33 feels extremely low. He went for 1100-5 in about the worst circumstances you can have. He's had an OC upgrade, a QB upgrade, and target hog Diontae Johnson is gone. I know I'm higher than most on Pickens, but I don't see much difference between him and Olave. I honestly probably prefer Pickens, who I think could be a borderline WR1.

Ladd McConkey at #51 seems really low to me. I've kinda been driving the bandwagon since January, but he went to an ideal landing spot, with a great QB, and little to no target competition. Yes, the Chargers want to be less pass heavy, but its no lock they can be, and when they do air it out he's likely target #1, maybe even week 1.

TE:
David Njoku at #6 seems high. The overwhelming majority of his production came with Joe Flacco. Watson doesn't target the TE that much. I don't think he's a top-10 TE with Watson. Maybe if Winston takes over, if Watson gets hurt again?

Kyle Pitts at #9 feels low to me. He's had as bad of QB play as anyone in the NFL the last 2 years. He went for 1000 yards as a rookie when he had an NFL starter caliber QB, and Cousins is probably better than 2021 Matt Ryan. He's still only 24, and Jonnu is gone. The top-5 upside hasn't gone anywhere and his situation has massively improved.

Hunter Henry is low at #21. Yes, he's boring, and has a limited ceiling, but he's also possibly the #1 pass catcher on his team. Personally, I have more interest in Henry than guys like Schultz or Kmet who are looking at sizeable volume decreases as the #4 options.
Click to expand...
:goodposting: Fantastic analysis @travdogg
 
He's only projecting 720 TD passes league wide. That's really low. The last two years, the NFL has had near historic lows for TD passes at about 750/season. This year, he is projecting 30 fewer than that.

I actually think scoring in general will tick up a bit this year after a decent batch of college QBs last year have a year of experience under their belt, Aaron Rodgers playing a full season, and more promising rookie QBs entering the mix.
 
I think the conservative nature of his projections come from him only projecting 15 games per player for the most part. For my projections, I prefer to project almost every starter at 17 games and keep notes/use other designations to highlight players I'd like to avoid due to injury.
 
oldmanhawkins said:
Some specific projections that stood out to me...

He projects Josh Allen at 23 passing touchdowns. The same Josh Allen that has 100 passing TDs over the last three seasons (second to only Pat Mahomes). He thinks that Stafford/Mayfield/Rodgers/Herbert/Stroud/Caleb/Cousins/Goff/Purdy/Love/Tua will all throw for as many or more than Josh. Heck, he has Derek Carr at 22. Just glancing at the receiving projections on the Bills, I think he's low on Cook & Coleman's TDs and low on Shakir's ypr.

He has Bijan at fewer yards than last year and a lower Carry%. Allgeier was 3.7 ypc last year, I cannot see a world where they give him 10 carries a game again.

The teams that he projects to have TWO receivers with 1000 yards or more are the Eagles, Dolphins, Bengals, Rams and...Titans. Hopkins & Ridley barely hit 1K over 17 games and now they are competing for targets from Levis. This one definitely has my attention.
Click to expand...

You have to keep in mind he's only projecting 15 games per player. Allen's 23 TDs becomes 26 TDs across 17 games which seems very reasonable considering he threw 29 last year and his receivers have become a bit of a **** show. Plus it looks like they lost their Center and will be fielding a worse O-line this year. I also have the entire Buffalo offense declining a bit.
 
Ranks are 2024 projections. He projects the Jets as #1 seed in AFC which illustrates the paper exercise that it is.
 
I've only looked at Baltimore's projections, so don't know how other teams look on the list. I'm guessing his "games" total is by some kind of algorithm. He has every Ravens offensive starter (except the FB) missing at least two games. Is that league-average?

The biggest total that jumped out at me is that I think he's low on DB sacks. If Malaki Starks is what they thought they were drafting, they're gonna turn Kyle Hamilton loose.

The other thing is that he needs to give Baltimore a zero % chance to win on one of the Pittsburgh games. Doesn't matter which one :lol:
 
Bracie Smathers said:
UPDATE: The 2025 projection guide is out.
Mike Clay's 2025 NFL Projection Guide
Click to expand...
Thanks for posting this. I like comparing to my own projections.

I took his totals to see the overall picture he is projecting. He's projecting offensive totals to go up about 10% from last year, including the most passing yards since at least 2019.

Interesting that he has NFL teams improving their passing yards by 10%, but passing TDs roughly the same.

Offenses he sees regressing from last year in order of magnitude

Detroit
Tampa Bay
Baltimore
Philly
Washington

Offenses he sees improving

Chicago
New England
Las Vegas
Miami
Dallas
 
Uruk-Hai said:
I've only looked at Baltimore's projections, so don't know how other teams look on the list. I'm guessing his "games" total is by some kind of algorithm. He has every Ravens offensive starter (except the FB) missing at least two games. Is that league average?
Click to expand...

Clay has been doing this for decades and yes missing 2 games is likely an average outcome.

He does this across the board for every player though, so it evens out that way.
 
The footnotes on the first page answer many of your questions:
eighsse2 said:
eighsse2 said:
Bracie Smathers said:
UPDATE: The 2025 projection guide is out.
Mike Clay's 2025 NFL Projection Guide
Click to expand...
Always love this piece. I'm confused how he has the opponents listed in order by week? Is it just put together randomly, and will be updated after release?
Click to expand...
For real, this is weirding me out, does Mike Clay have insider schedule info and accidentally leaked it early?
Click to expand...
"Note that prior to the official release of the NFL schedule (generally mid May), the schedule shown includes the correct opponents, but the order is simulated."

Biabreakable said:
Uruk-Hai said:
I've only looked at Baltimore's projections, so don't know how other teams look on the list. I'm guessing his "games" total is by some kind of algorithm. He has every Ravens offensive starter (except the FB) missing at least two games. Is that league average?
Click to expand...

Clay has been doing this for decades and yes missing 2 games is likely an average outcome.

He does this across the board for every player though, so it evens out that way.
Click to expand...
"Most players max out at 15 projected games played. This is related to injury rates, as a majority of players will not make it through the full 17 games."
 
ZWK said:
"Most players max out at 15 projected games played. This is related to injury rates, as a majority of players will not make it through the full 17 games."
Click to expand...

I have never seen the point of this. No single player is the average of all players. Some will play 17 games. Some will play 16, some 15, and so on all the way down to 0. It is impossible to predict for any given player, so why not just project every player at 17 games?
 
For the Chargers, I can't argue much with his projections, other than the fact that I would project 17 games, as already noted. Other minor notes:
  • He projects RB Vidal. IMO it is more likely UDFA RB Sanders will make the final roster as the final RB. Not fantasy relevant, barring injuries.
  • I think WR Lambert-Smith will have more than 3 receptions. But again, not fantasy relevant, barring injuries.
  • IMO TE Conklin will have more than 39/375/3 and TE Gadsden will have more than 7/72/1.
  • In accordance with previous points, I expect Chargers QBs to have more than 4189/25 passing. And I would be surprised at 11 interceptions.
 
Last edited:
Let's look at the numbers on Justin Herbert because it tells a story if you look

www.pro-football-reference.com

Justin Herbert Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Draft, College | Pro-Football-Reference.com

Checkout the latest stats for Justin Herbert. Get info about his position, age, height, weight, college, draft, and more on Pro-football-reference.com.
www.pro-football-reference.com www.pro-football-reference.com
He was throwing for 5,000 yards when he arrived, threw 38 TDs one year.

In 2024, Herbert was part of an 11-win season, the most he's ever experienced and he threw for less yds than he ever had in the NFL
I don't see the Chargers being "Wide Open" in their approach on offense. Last year they had mediocre talent at RB and they didn't try to exploit Herbert for 5,000 yds

So what do the Chargers do int he off season? Upgrade the running game because they want to ground and pound
Hampton and Harris are going to be given a lot of carries this season, I'm not even thinking about how the load will be split, they're both going to get a workout

I read you @Tau837
Wanted to add my 2 cents to what you already are outlining

Harbaugh wants to get Herbert into the Hall of Fame, the Troy Aikman way
 
Regarding Herbert, he had 504 pass attempts in 17 regular season games last season and Clay is projecting 508 in 15 games. Those attempt numbers are so close, it is easy to pick at Clay's projections.

First consider these offensive upgrades:
  • Upgraded WR Chark to WR Williams - obvious chemistry with Herbert and should be starting X WR
  • Drafted 2nd round rookie WR Harris
  • Moved WR Johnston from X to Z - should be a better fit for skillset
  • Drafted WR Lambert-Smith to provide a needed deep speed target
  • Upgraded TE Hurst to TE Conklin - should be leading TE target
  • Upgraded TE Smartt to rookie TE Gadsden
  • Upgraded RG Pipkins to RG Becton - better pass protection, better run blocking
  • Upgraded RB 1/2 from Dobbins/Edwards to rookie Hampton and Harris - better rushing and better receiving from Hampton
Now compare:
  • Herbert had 3870 passing yards last season. Clay is projecting 3741. Clay is projecting Herbert's YPA to fall from 7.68 to 7.36, which seems unlikely given the nature of the offense.
  • Herbert had 23 passing TDs last season. Clay is projecting 22, which projects Herbert's TD percentage at 4.33%. In his 5 seasons to date, Herbert has only been that low once (2022).
  • Herbert had 3 interceptions last season. Clay is projecting 9, which projects Herbert's interception percentage at 1.77%. In his 5 seasons to date, Herbert has only been that high once (2021).
I expect Herbert will outperform Clay's projections in each of those metrics. It seems to me that Clay must use a mathematical model without actually applying much analysis to each team's situation and context.
 
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