Fantasy football takes no skill (1 Viewer)

[Time Kibitzer]

My skill got Cruz a touchdown!! OMG I'M AWESOME!

Damn, you're definitely much luckier than I. When I threw my dart at the board to make my pick in the third round I got Armon Binns, guy has been killing me so far.

 

[sporthenry]

If fantasy football is decided entirely by chance, then it is impossible to sabotage yourself. That's the point Maurile made, and it is obviously correct.EDIT: Meh, never mind. I'm done with this fishing trip, since no one could be this dumb to believe the things you're posting.

That doesn't even make sense. Rolling the dice is also decided entirely by chance but you can still sabotage yourself by not hitting the back wall, not rolling both dice, throwing the dice off the table, etc. The entire point is that the best you can do is to give yourself an even chance of winning as anybody else. From there, it becomes all luck. But most certainly you could hinder your odds by sabotaging your team (bench all your players, draft all kickers, etc).

You can't really sabotage yourself in craps. Those aren't considered actual rolls and you'd roll again. I guess you could sabotage yourself if you are good at rolling and you could slide the dice on purpose to lose. However his point is that with roulette or craps, there is inherently no skill to predicting a winner (forget about sliding the dice or visual ballistics with roulette). On the flip side, you can try to lose money but your odds do not change and you can win as easily as you lose. However, in fantasy football you can try to lose and assuredly lose so that must mean there is at least minimal skill to create a winner. Luck will play a part so like poker you can put yourself in the best chance to win but ultimately it will come down to some luck in one given situation, all you can do is try to have a positive expected value.

 

[jvdesigns2002]

Fantasy football is what you make of it. It doesn't take skill to participate in it--as anybody can do it--they can click and draft a team--and roll with that team and see how it does. The key to luck is putting yourself in a position to be lucky--or to protect yourself from being unlucky. If somebody wanted to see the skill involved in being a good fantasy football owner--try drafting a team--don't make any trades, don't do any adds/drops--and see what the chances of you winning with that team are by the end of the season. I would guarantee that the odds of an owner winning a fantasy league would be astronomically lower than the odds of an owner that studies up on things and makes improvements to their team along the way. The only similarity between poker and fantasy football is that a good poker player will "get his money in good". A good poker player will basically play the odds (play hands that mathematically favor them) to their benefit. A good fantasy football owner would do the same. They will make their team and set their weekly lineups to give them the best chance of winning. However, just like in poker--once the hands are shown, and the money is in--the cards that come out can make or break you. The thing is that it is impossible to quantify what percentage of luck versus skill fantasy football is--because these percentages will vary based on the player. A really great fantasy player (one that did their homework and drafted well, bought low and sold high on players..etc) is great because they have managed to minimize the likelihood of bad luck against them. A good poker player will do the same thing. They will try to get their money in when they are a heavy favorite to win--they try to limit the likelihood of having a bad beat. This is what makes fantasy football so fun--this element of uncertainty even when you do what you can to try to limit that uncertainty.

 

[xander756]

You can't really sabotage yourself in craps. Those aren't considered actual rolls and you'd roll again. I guess you could sabotage yourself if you are good at rolling and you could slide the dice on purpose to lose. However his point is that with roulette or craps, there is inherently no skill to predicting a winner (forget about sliding the dice or visual ballistics with roulette). On the flip side, you can try to lose money but your odds do not change and you can win as easily as you lose. However, in fantasy football you can try to lose and assuredly lose so that must mean there is at least minimal skill to create a winner. Luck will play a part so like poker you can put yourself in the best chance to win but ultimately it will come down to some luck in one given situation, all you can do is try to have a positive expected value.

Really cuz at the casinos near where I live, in Niagara Falls, if you don't hit the back wall of the table you lose.

 

[scrumptrulescent]

This is why I like fantasy baseball much better than football.

 

[Thunderlips]

Better idea: write down a list of every offensive player in the NFL. Throw darts at it. Draft who the dart lands on. If FF was all luck, you should be competitive. You'd better hope you're right, though, because you'll need a whole lot of luck after spending your first 7 picks on Nick Foles, Jeremiah Johnson, Devin Hester, Michael Floyd, Blaine Gabbart, Kyle Orton, and Randy Moss. I think it's Calbear who is always saying that FF takes a lot of skill, it's just that most owners piggyback off of someone else's skill (I.e. draft from a cheatsheet). I don't have to have any skill in picking stocks if I just give Warren Buffet my money and let him invest it for me: this does not mean that picking stocks doesn't take skill.

even if applicable, this is pretty irrelevant to the spirit of the discussion.

I don't think so. Nobody would seriously suggest 10-20 years ago that fantasy took no skill. That's because, back then, most people had not yet begun outsourcing their skill-based decisions. Now people make all their decisions from a cheatsheet and think fantasy takes no skill, but that cheatsheet was not created by chance. Owners without skill can now borrow someone else's, but they still need skill (and a whole lot of it) to be competitive.

You are mistaking being informed for being skilled.You can improve your odds relative to others by being informed, but this does not in the least bit change the fact that every single week your performance is based largely on luck.

This is different from poker how?

The human aspect of poker play is very much skill....the % play is not so much. There is no human aspect of fantasy football....all there is is knowing the % (or in the case of FF.....the player info).

 

[Da Guru]

Having played FF for over 20 years, and now playing FBB for five years it is much easier to win a league by luck in football than baseball. The week long games in FBB let you ride out that one huge day by a nobody that ruins your week in football.

In the early days of FF you had to do your homework and research to have a good team. It still took a little luck but you really needed to put the time in to succeed. The slikk level now in FF is very marginal. Now you can just pull up any website the day of the draft and still be able to compete and win. A guy won my 12 team league last season with auto-pick on CBS.

 

[xander756]

This is why I like fantasy baseball much better than football.

Yes same. I like baseball the best with fantasy hockey a close second, then fantasy football a distant third which is funny because out of those three sports I actually like hockey most, then football, then baseball.

 

[dagwood]

Having played FF for over 20 years, and now playing FBB for five years it is much easier to win a league by luck in football than baseball. The week long games in FBB let you ride out that one huge day by a nobody that ruins your week in football.In the early days of FF you had to do your homework and research to have a good team. It still took a little luck but you really needed to put the time in to succeed. The slikk level now in FF is very marginal. Now you can just pull up any website the day of the draft and still be able to compete and win. A guy won my 12 team league last season with auto-pick on CBS.

Unless you go to larger rosters and starting lineups, or larger leagues, luck plays a big role in success.The basic start 1QB/2WR/2RB/1 Flex/TD/K 12 team league requires a good deal of luck to win.Add another flex or two or add another required WR and it starts to require more skill to win....

 

[lod01]

You can't really sabotage yourself in craps. Those aren't considered actual rolls and you'd roll again. I guess you could sabotage yourself if you are good at rolling and you could slide the dice on purpose to lose. However his point is that with roulette or craps, there is inherently no skill to predicting a winner (forget about sliding the dice or visual ballistics with roulette). On the flip side, you can try to lose money but your odds do not change and you can win as easily as you lose. However, in fantasy football you can try to lose and assuredly lose so that must mean there is at least minimal skill to create a winner. Luck will play a part so like poker you can put yourself in the best chance to win but ultimately it will come down to some luck in one given situation, all you can do is try to have a positive expected value.

Really cuz at the casinos near where I live, in Niagara Falls, if you don't hit the back wall of the table you lose may have to roll the dice again.

Fixed.

 

[ponchsox]

10 teams or less it's pretty much no skill and all luck as nearly every team is stacked. 12 teams and larger require more skill in drafting and waiver moves to succeed.

 

[wiscstlatlmia]

As people who love fantasy football... why were we not done with this thread a few days ago?

let it go people.

He can think what he wants and luckily enough for us, we can also.

let it go, let this thread go, let him go...

 

[silentcoach]

Football, itself, is a game of luck.

You can predict however you want, but the fact that each game involves so much randomness, will limit the use of projections.

The one position you may be able to predict with more accuracy is qb only because he has the ball all the time and the offensive coordinator just has to call a "pass" play for the qb to be impacted (and to some extent the same can be said about rbs).

However, if Team A's QB is projected to do well, but their defense causes 4 turnovers which leads to quick scores, the qb may not do well. Or if Team A scores two special team tds, then the QB will not need to do well--again, randomness.

WR will vary from games to game because gameplan, corners faced, and who the qb decidesto throw to, adds more randomness to the equation (in addition to the randomness that special teams tds and turnovers add).

The best you can do is the put the "best" (which requires some skill) lineup and then let the football randomness decide what happens (all luck).

Main Takeaway: Putting up the best perceived lineup takes skill but the outcome is luck. --> just like poker.

I can have top pair top kicker out of position and play them well versus a flush draw board (skill) but whether the flush hits on the turn or river is purely LUCK.

 

[matuski]

Better idea: write down a list of every offensive player in the NFL. Throw darts at it. Draft who the dart lands on. If FF was all luck, you should be competitive. You'd better hope you're right, though, because you'll need a whole lot of luck after spending your first 7 picks on Nick Foles, Jeremiah Johnson, Devin Hester, Michael Floyd, Blaine Gabbart, Kyle Orton, and Randy Moss. I think it's Calbear who is always saying that FF takes a lot of skill, it's just that most owners piggyback off of someone else's skill (I.e. draft from a cheatsheet). I don't have to have any skill in picking stocks if I just give Warren Buffet my money and let him invest it for me: this does not mean that picking stocks doesn't take skill.

even if applicable, this is pretty irrelevant to the spirit of the discussion.

I don't think so. Nobody would seriously suggest 10-20 years ago that fantasy took no skill. That's because, back then, most people had not yet begun outsourcing their skill-based decisions. Now people make all their decisions from a cheatsheet and think fantasy takes no skill, but that cheatsheet was not created by chance. Owners without skill can now borrow someone else's, but they still need skill (and a whole lot of it) to be competitive.

You are mistaking being informed for being skilled.You can improve your odds relative to others by being informed, but this does not in the least bit change the fact that every single week your performance is based largely on luck.

This is different from poker how?

Really? Have you thought this through or is this another knee jerk reaction to someone offending your ff "skills"?

 

[CalBear]

The human aspect of poker play is very much skill....the % play is not so much. There is no human aspect of fantasy football....all there is is knowing the % (or in the case of FF.....the player info).

This is why the poker analogy doesn't work, but not for the reason you think. In poker, the percentages are knowable; you have full information about your own chances of improving your hand. In fantasy football, the percentages are unknowable; you have no way of knowing how many carries Jamal Charles will get next week. In poker, the unknowable is your opponent's hand, but you have a lot more information about your opponent's hand than you do about what will happen in a football game next weekend, and there's a lot less noise to sort out. The skill in fantasy football is in sorting through the noise and the huge number of variables to come up with better estimates of probabilities than your opponents. Look at it this way: If fantasy football were all luck, half of Coach Otis' value plays would work out. The fact that all of them consistently bust as badly as they do indicates that there must be skill involved.

 

[silentcoach]

The human aspect of poker play is very much skill....the % play is not so much. There is no human aspect of fantasy football....all there is is knowing the % (or in the case of FF.....the player info).

This is why the poker analogy doesn't work, but not for the reason you think. In poker, the percentages are knowable; you have full information about your own chances of improving your hand. In fantasy football, the percentages are unknowable; you have no way of knowing how many carries Jamal Charles will get next week. In poker, the unknowable is your opponent's hand, but you have a lot more information about your opponent's hand than you do about what will happen in a football game next weekend, and there's a lot less noise to sort out. The skill in fantasy football is in sorting through the noise and the huge number of variables to come up with better estimates of probabilities than your opponents. Look at it this way: If fantasy football were all luck, half of Coach Otis' value plays would work out. The fact that all of them to consistently bust as badly as they do indicates that there must be skill involved.

As i stated above: setting your starting lineup or creating a team with depth takes some skill, but what actually happens is luck. Does my opponent hit his flush or not, is all luck (except in poker, the hand is predetermined, but we don't know it, where in football, is it just random chance).So I agree, if you are start out with "poorer" players, the odds you get lucky are lower. Just as, if you start with 7,2 offsuit the odds are lower you win. But any given had, like any given game, anything is possible. 16 games is not enough variance for luck to be eliminated--enhances luck. Off topic: this is the reason that vegas loves football season. One turnover, one penalty can change a game, a season. Since when has one turnover in an 82 game baseketball season ever done anything?

 

[fightingillini]

Anyone who thinks that FF requires no skill is either dumb or severely misinformed.

But IMO there is more luck now than there was 14 years ago when I started playing FF. Back then, if you did the work, you can come up with the trends and data that gave you a BIG edge on you opposition. Today....there is so much information easily obtained that it's easy for some uninformed owner to take a generic cheatsheet and draft a competitive team.

But that said, FF is never 100% luck or you would have randomness to overall records and making the playoffs. In my big league, I have made the playoffs 11 out of 14 years. A true random result would have me in the playoffs 8 times out of 14. My buddy (commish of this league) and me have won half the titles. You can't justify 100% luck if the same guys are making the playoffs and in contention for the title every year.

So IMO it's much harder to draft that killer team by taking advantage of other's lack of knowledge. (This applies to redraft leagues. Auction drafts favor the skilled much more). So the real skill in FF is in season management. Knowing when a player might emerge and get them on your team before a bidding war ensues (or relying on the luck of WW position). Knowing which players that have hot starts are for real or just an abberation. So when a player gets off to a good start and you think he will come back to earth, getting on the horn and trading that player away to improve your lineup. Or see which defenses are going to be the worst and trading for players that play those teams in Weeks 14-16. You want guys that play WAS,NO,OAK,or TB in the playoffs....as all these defenses give up a lot of points. So in summary, quickly being able to spot trends and act on them is the real skill that separates the great from the average.

As always, once the ball is kicked off, you're at the mercy of the fantasy gods, and luck will NEVER be eliminated. It isn't eliminated in real sports, so why would we want to eliminate it all together in fantasy?

When asked this question, I always say the in redraft H2H leagues, success is 65% skill, 25% schedule luck, and 10% injury luck. You can substantially reduce injury luck by drafting good depth. Once the playoffs begin, it's 10% skill and 90% luck. The 5% is essentially for lineup decisions only.

So the best fantasy football players draft and manage their team so that they usually have a 5-15% advantage on their opponent, every week. With that, their expected record at the end of the season is about 8-5, which makes the playoffs every year in most leagues. Now they don't make the playoffs every year since some years they run into bad schedule luck or have a key injury, but this is why the best teams make the playoffs the vast majority of the time.

 

[silentcoach]

Anyone who thinks that FF requires no skill is either dumb or severely misinformed.

But IMO there is more luck now than there was 14 years ago when I started playing FF. Back then, if you did the work, you can come up with the trends and data that gave you a BIG edge on you opposition. Today....there is so much information easily obtained that it's easy for some uninformed owner to take a generic cheatsheet and draft a competitive team.

But that said, FF is never 100% luck or you would have randomness to overall records and making the playoffs. In my big league, I have made the playoffs 11 out of 14 years. A true random result would have me in the playoffs 8 times out of 14. My buddy (commish of this league) and me have won half the titles. You can't justify 100% luck if the same guys are making the playoffs and in contention for the title every year.

So IMO it's much harder to draft that killer team by taking advantage of other's lack of knowledge. (This applies to redraft leagues. Auction drafts favor the skilled much more). So the real skill in FF is in season management. Knowing when a player might emerge and get them on your team before a bidding war ensues (or relying on the luck of WW position). Knowing which players that have hot starts are for real or just an abberation. So when a player gets off to a good start and you think he will come back to earth, getting on the horn and trading that player away to improve your lineup. Or see which defenses are going to be the worst and trading for players that play those teams in Weeks 14-16. You want guys that play WAS,NO,OAK,or TB in the playoffs....as all these defenses give up a lot of points. So in summary, quickly being able to spot trends and act on them is the real skill that separates the great from the average.

As always, once the ball is kicked off, you're at the mercy of the fantasy gods, and luck will NEVER be eliminated. It isn't eliminated in real sports, so why would we want to eliminate it all together in fantasy?

When asked this question, I always say the in redraft H2H leagues, success is 65% skill, 25% schedule luck, and 10% injury luck. You can substantially reduce injury luck by drafting good depth. Once the playoffs begin, it's 10% skill and 90% luck. The 5% is essentially for lineup decisions only.

So the best fantasy football players draft and manage their team so that they usually have a 5-15% advantage on their opponent, every week. With that, their expected record at the end of the season is about 8-5, which makes the playoffs every year in most leagues. Now they don't make the playoffs every year since some years they run into bad schedule luck or have a key injury, but this is why the best teams make the playoffs the vast majority of the time.

Yes and No. If you knew hartline or roberts would blow up while harvin and julio jones would stink, the I need to join your site. Sometimes, these things are unpredictable. Maybe going forward, we can now put more value, but beforehand the results at hand seem to be mostly luck.It "may" have taken more skill to have drafted julio jones and/or harvin than taking hartline or roberts, but you would have lost if you started julio and harvin over hartline and roberts. . Unless, of course, you had the "skill" to start hartline and roberts over julio and harvin.

The problem is that each week involves luck. In the end, if you want to eliminate luck and keep it constant (good or bad luck), keep starting the same lineup for 16 weeks.

 

[squistion]

The human aspect of poker play is very much skill....the % play is not so much. There is no human aspect of fantasy football....all there is is knowing the % (or in the case of FF.....the player info).

Really? If you have been in a league with the same people over a period of years, you don't learn to recognize their tendencies and profit from that? I play exclusively in Dynasty leagues, but even when I was in redrafts certain owners were fairly predictable in their draft selections and their player evaluations. I find it quite bizarre to state that the human aspect plays no part in FF.

 

[atcdav]

Definitely luck, especially with the randomness of head to head schedules and matchups. But when you see they same players tend to win or finish close to the top year after year after year, that is not luck!!

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

Anyone who thinks that FF requires no skill is either dumb or severely misinformed.

But IMO there is more luck now than there was 14 years ago when I started playing FF. Back then, if you did the work, you can come up with the trends and data that gave you a BIG edge on you opposition. Today....there is so much information easily obtained that it's easy for some uninformed owner to take a generic cheatsheet and draft a competitive team.

But that said, FF is never 100% luck or you would have randomness to overall records and making the playoffs. In my big league, I have made the playoffs 11 out of 14 years. A true random result would have me in the playoffs 8 times out of 14. My buddy (commish of this league) and me have won half the titles. You can't justify 100% luck if the same guys are making the playoffs and in contention for the title every year.

So IMO it's much harder to draft that killer team by taking advantage of other's lack of knowledge. (This applies to redraft leagues. Auction drafts favor the skilled much more). So the real skill in FF is in season management. Knowing when a player might emerge and get them on your team before a bidding war ensues (or relying on the luck of WW position). Knowing which players that have hot starts are for real or just an abberation. So when a player gets off to a good start and you think he will come back to earth, getting on the horn and trading that player away to improve your lineup. Or see which defenses are going to be the worst and trading for players that play those teams in Weeks 14-16. You want guys that play WAS,NO,OAK,or TB in the playoffs....as all these defenses give up a lot of points. So in summary, quickly being able to spot trends and act on them is the real skill that separates the great from the average.

As always, once the ball is kicked off, you're at the mercy of the fantasy gods, and luck will NEVER be eliminated. It isn't eliminated in real sports, so why would we want to eliminate it all together in fantasy?

When asked this question, I always say the in redraft H2H leagues, success is 65% skill, 25% schedule luck, and 10% injury luck. You can substantially reduce injury luck by drafting good depth. Once the playoffs begin, it's 10% skill and 90% luck. The 5% is essentially for lineup decisions only.

So the best fantasy football players draft and manage their team so that they usually have a 5-15% advantage on their opponent, every week. With that, their expected record at the end of the season is about 8-5, which makes the playoffs every year in most leagues. Now they don't make the playoffs every year since some years they run into bad schedule luck or have a key injury, but this is why the best teams make the playoffs the vast majority of the time.

Yes and No. If you knew hartline or roberts would blow up while harvin and julio jones would stink, the I need to join your site. Sometimes, these things are unpredictable. Maybe going forward, we can now put more value, but beforehand the results at hand seem to be mostly luck.It "may" have taken more skill to have drafted julio jones and/or harvin than taking hartline or roberts, but you would have lost if you started julio and harvin over hartline and roberts. . Unless, of course, you had the "skill" to start hartline and roberts over julio and harvin.

The problem is that each week involves luck. In the end, if you want to eliminate luck and keep it constant (good or bad luck), keep starting the same lineup for 16 weeks.

Right, and sometimes you'll have a better poker hand than your opponent, but he'll end up hitting a miracle 2-outer on the river and you lose anyway. There's an enormous amount of luck and variation in the short-term, no one disputes that. But over a long period of time you're going to win more of those hands than you're going to lose, just like over a longer period of time, the owner who starts "Julio and Harvin" caliber players is going to beat the owner who starts "Hartline and Roberts" caliber players more often than he loses. (There's actually an interesting nuance to this argument, but I'm not getting into that now). The point remains that if fantasy football was purely a game of chance, then there would be no such thing as cheatsheets. There's no cheatsheet where you rank the best numbers to play in roulette - it's pure chance which number comes up on each spin of the wheel. It's not pure chance which players score the most points each week in fantasy football. Is there a lot of chance to it? Of course, but it's not entirely luck. It requires a certain set of skills to identify them more consistently than your opponents. The point has been made several times earlier, but it's hard for many to see this role that skill plays because it's too easy to outsource that component of the game to someone else. Yes, you can just pay FBGs for some spreadsheets and any knucklehead can compete. That doesn't mean there's no skill, it just means the skill component has been transfered to someone else. It's like sitting down at a poker table and having Phil Hellmuth stand behind you and tell you what to do on every hand. Any knucklehead could rake in money doing that, but that's not because poker suddenly doesn't require skill, it's because you've outsourced the skill component to someone else.

 

[CalBear]

Off topic: this is the reason that vegas loves football season. One turnover, one penalty can change a game, a season. Since when has one turnover in an 82 game baseketball season ever done anything?

Larry Bird stealing Isaiah's inbounds pass? Dwayne Wade dribbling it off his foot against the Mavericks?

 

[Hoss Style]

People who think research isn't a skill have never met someone who does it on a professional level.

The guys at FBG are professional researchers.

Also, I find it amusing that just because some people don't put much work (or "skill") into their league they are quick to jump in and yell about how that means that no one else can influence the success of their teams with skill. Get outside much? You may just be wrong.

Is it a skill when a NFL team scout sees a player from a small college playing WR, sees the skillset that might convert well to CB in the NFL, speaks with the kid, looks at his tangibles and formulates a viewpoint - then makes a recommendation to his employer to draft the kid late? Three years later he's a success at CB?

Is it a skill when you're at a team practice and you see a third string RB that is just killing it but isn't really talked about because he's a Free Agent from a smaller school with no pedigree - yet you put him on your radar anyway? You watch all the games he's in, keep track of team news and also track the success (and failures) of the RBs ahead of him... and 3 years later he's a RB2 no one saw coming (until it was too late) in your Fantasy Football league?

Now, some might say that none of the above is skill. It's just research.

People who think that research isn't a skill have never met someone who does it on a professional level.

Just because we have the tools that we need to be successful doesn't mean that the people who crafted those tools for us aren't skilled at it. We bring the tools we choose to the contest and then luck takes it from there. Just don't discount the tools you've chosen - or the skill involved in creating them.

 

[Thunderlips]

The human aspect of poker play is very much skill....the % play is not so much. There is no human aspect of fantasy football....all there is is knowing the % (or in the case of FF.....the player info).

Really? If you have been in a league with the same people over a period of years, you don't learn to recognize their tendencies and profit from that? I play exclusively in Dynasty leagues, but even when I was in redrafts certain owners were fairly predictable in their draft selections and their player evaluations. I find it quite bizarre to state that the human aspect plays no part in FF.

No. Guys change based on information that's given to them/ trends/quality and number of players by position etc. etc. The only recognizing in our league might be based on draft slots rather than owners (as QBs are highly coveted). But even then that's not individual skill...that's general knowledge.

 

[Hoss Style]

The human aspect of poker play is very much skill....the % play is not so much. There is no human aspect of fantasy football....all there is is knowing the % (or in the case of FF.....the player info).

Really? If you have been in a league with the same people over a period of years, you don't learn to recognize their tendencies and profit from that? I play exclusively in Dynasty leagues, but even when I was in redrafts certain owners were fairly predictable in their draft selections and their player evaluations. I find it quite bizarre to state that the human aspect plays no part in FF.

No. Guys change based on information that's given to them/ trends/quality and number of players by position etc. etc. The only recognizing in our league might be based on draft slots rather than owners (as QBs are highly coveted). But even then that's not individual skill...that's general knowledge.

Please don't say that because it's true in your league it must be true in all.I'm in an IDP Keeper League. I know my buddy Marc will prioritize young talent. I know Matt loves him some LBs and will reach for a potential stud. I know Aaron is a Cowboys fan and enjoys having as many viable Cowboys on his team as possible (and will trade for it in season). I know Pete and McNerney value WRs more than many others in our league.

Need I go on? If you are in a league that's been around for a few years or more then the "human aspect" is very much alive.

 

[wiscstlatlmia]

Better idea: write down a list of every offensive player in the NFL. Throw darts at it. Draft who the dart lands on. If FF was all luck, you should be competitive. You'd better hope you're right, though, because you'll need a whole lot of luck after spending your first 7 picks on Nick Foles, Jeremiah Johnson, Devin Hester, Michael Floyd, Blaine Gabbart, Kyle Orton, and Randy Moss. I think it's Calbear who is always saying that FF takes a lot of skill, it's just that most owners piggyback off of someone else's skill (I.e. draft from a cheatsheet). I don't have to have any skill in picking stocks if I just give Warren Buffet my money and let him invest it for me: this does not mean that picking stocks doesn't take skill.

even if applicable, this is pretty irrelevant to the spirit of the discussion.

I don't think so. Nobody would seriously suggest 10-20 years ago that fantasy took no skill. That's because, back then, most people had not yet begun outsourcing their skill-based decisions. Now people make all their decisions from a cheatsheet and think fantasy takes no skill, but that cheatsheet was not created by chance. Owners without skill can now borrow someone else's, but they still need skill (and a whole lot of it) to be competitive.

You are mistaking being informed for being skilled.You can improve your odds relative to others by being informed, but this does not in the least bit change the fact that every single week your performance is based largely on luck.

This is different from poker how?

Really? Have you thought this through or is this another knee jerk reaction to someone offending your ff "skills"?

Not sure it's my FF skills, perhaps my analogy skills though.. I'm very proud of them usually... apparently I failed this time

 

[beaux]

100% luck... There is no "skill" at fantasy sports...

One can study and be more informed, but this does not equate to "skill"...

 

[Hoss Style]

100% luck... There is no "skill" at fantasy sports...One can study and be more informed, but this does not equate to "skill"...

Thanks for dropping your 100% knowledge on us.If you say it - it must be right. I stand corrected.

 

[DoubleG]

Look at it this way: If fantasy football were all luck, half of Coach Otis' value plays would work out. The fact that all of them to consistently bust as badly as they do indicates that there must be skill involved.

How is this not getting more love??

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Look at it this way: If fantasy football were all luck, half of Coach Otis' value plays would work out. The fact that all of them to consistently bust as badly as they do indicates that there must be skill involved.

How is this not getting more love??

You've got a point. Just like there are those who always pick losers vs the spread. There is a skill involved even if it's upside down.

 

[wiscstlatlmia]

Look at it this way: If fantasy football were all luck, half of Coach Otis' value plays would work out. The fact that all of them to consistently bust as badly as they do indicates that there must be skill involved.

How is this not getting more love??

Wow, didn't see it before...

 

[Thunderlips]

The human aspect of poker play is very much skill....the % play is not so much. There is no human aspect of fantasy football....all there is is knowing the % (or in the case of FF.....the player info).

Really? If you have been in a league with the same people over a period of years, you don't learn to recognize their tendencies and profit from that? I play exclusively in Dynasty leagues, but even when I was in redrafts certain owners were fairly predictable in their draft selections and their player evaluations. I find it quite bizarre to state that the human aspect plays no part in FF.

No. Guys change based on information that's given to them/ trends/quality and number of players by position etc. etc. The only recognizing in our league might be based on draft slots rather than owners (as QBs are highly coveted). But even then that's not individual skill...that's general knowledge.

Please don't say that because it's true in your league it must be true in all.I'm in an IDP Keeper League. I know my buddy Marc will prioritize young talent. I know Matt loves him some LBs and will reach for a potential stud. I know Aaron is a Cowboys fan and enjoys having as many viable Cowboys on his team as possible (and will trade for it in season). I know Pete and McNerney value WRs more than many others in our league.

Need I go on? If you are in a league that's been around for a few years or more then the "human aspect" is very much alive.

I'm sorry it's not a skill. It's not even the same as the "human aspect" in poker.

 

[beaux]

100% luck... There is no "skill" at fantasy sports...One can study and be more informed, but this does not equate to "skill"...

Thanks for dropping your 100% knowledge on us.If you say it - it must be right. I stand corrected.

Once you realize this and accept it, everything will be fine...

 

[TidesofWar]

Article:

A major theme on this fantasy sports column this year is how much fantasy football relies on luck. No I am not talking about Colts quarterback Andrew Luck but the concept of chance.

While all fantasy sports have some factor of luck to them, fantasy football is mostly luck and requires very little, if any, knowledge of the sport to win. I even have a continuing season-long series on the topic titled "fantasy football is all luck" . But why does football in particular involve so much dang luck?

The reason that fantasy football is so heavily reliant on a luck factor is because players only play one game per week. Compare this to hockey where players have a game every other day or baseball where teams play every single day of the week. Luck decreases with more games played. When your team only plays one game per week, a single performance can literally make or break your entire matchup. One game from just one player could spell doom for your fantasy team.

Read full article: [link redacted — MT]What do you think of this article? Agree? Disagree? Is football more luck than other fantasy sports?

you register yesterday, ask a question this morning, and now you are defensive?

nice work.

Defensive? Not at all. Just trying to correct people who are saying incorrect things. If you disagree with the argument put forth in the article, I am all for hearing your opinion but trying to claim I am 0-3 (which I am not) or that I only am good because of listening to experts (when I am an expert myself) have nothing to do with the article at hand.

 

[silentcoach]

Anyone who thinks that FF requires no skill is either dumb or severely misinformed.

But IMO there is more luck now than there was 14 years ago when I started playing FF. Back then, if you did the work, you can come up with the trends and data that gave you a BIG edge on you opposition. Today....there is so much information easily obtained that it's easy for some uninformed owner to take a generic cheatsheet and draft a competitive team.

But that said, FF is never 100% luck or you would have randomness to overall records and making the playoffs. In my big league, I have made the playoffs 11 out of 14 years. A true random result would have me in the playoffs 8 times out of 14. My buddy (commish of this league) and me have won half the titles. You can't justify 100% luck if the same guys are making the playoffs and in contention for the title every year.

So IMO it's much harder to draft that killer team by taking advantage of other's lack of knowledge. (This applies to redraft leagues. Auction drafts favor the skilled much more). So the real skill in FF is in season management. Knowing when a player might emerge and get them on your team before a bidding war ensues (or relying on the luck of WW position). Knowing which players that have hot starts are for real or just an abberation. So when a player gets off to a good start and you think he will come back to earth, getting on the horn and trading that player away to improve your lineup. Or see which defenses are going to be the worst and trading for players that play those teams in Weeks 14-16. You want guys that play WAS,NO,OAK,or TB in the playoffs....as all these defenses give up a lot of points. So in summary, quickly being able to spot trends and act on them is the real skill that separates the great from the average.

As always, once the ball is kicked off, you're at the mercy of the fantasy gods, and luck will NEVER be eliminated. It isn't eliminated in real sports, so why would we want to eliminate it all together in fantasy?

When asked this question, I always say the in redraft H2H leagues, success is 65% skill, 25% schedule luck, and 10% injury luck. You can substantially reduce injury luck by drafting good depth. Once the playoffs begin, it's 10% skill and 90% luck. The 5% is essentially for lineup decisions only.

So the best fantasy football players draft and manage their team so that they usually have a 5-15% advantage on their opponent, every week. With that, their expected record at the end of the season is about 8-5, which makes the playoffs every year in most leagues. Now they don't make the playoffs every year since some years they run into bad schedule luck or have a key injury, but this is why the best teams make the playoffs the vast majority of the time.

Yes and No. If you knew hartline or roberts would blow up while harvin and julio jones would stink, the I need to join your site. Sometimes, these things are unpredictable. Maybe going forward, we can now put more value, but beforehand the results at hand seem to be mostly luck.It "may" have taken more skill to have drafted julio jones and/or harvin than taking hartline or roberts, but you would have lost if you started julio and harvin over hartline and roberts. . Unless, of course, you had the "skill" to start hartline and roberts over julio and harvin.

The problem is that each week involves luck. In the end, if you want to eliminate luck and keep it constant (good or bad luck), keep starting the same lineup for 16 weeks.

Right, and sometimes you'll have a better poker hand than your opponent, but he'll end up hitting a miracle 2-outer on the river and you lose anyway. There's an enormous amount of luck and variation in the short-term, no one disputes that. But over a long period of time you're going to win more of those hands than you're going to lose, just like over a longer period of time, the owner who starts "Julio and Harvin" caliber players is going to beat the owner who starts "Hartline and Roberts" caliber players more often than he loses. (There's actually an interesting nuance to this argument, but I'm not getting into that now). The point remains that if fantasy football was purely a game of chance, then there would be no such thing as cheatsheets. There's no cheatsheet where you rank the best numbers to play in roulette - it's pure chance which number comes up on each spin of the wheel. It's not pure chance which players score the most points each week in fantasy football. Is there a lot of chance to it? Of course, but it's not entirely luck. It requires a certain set of skills to identify them more consistently than your opponents. The point has been made several times earlier, but it's hard for many to see this role that skill plays because it's too easy to outsource that component of the game to someone else. Yes, you can just pay FBGs for some spreadsheets and any knucklehead can compete. That doesn't mean there's no skill, it just means the skill component has been transfered to someone else. It's like sitting down at a poker table and having Phil Hellmuth stand behind you and tell you what to do on every hand. Any knucklehead could rake in money doing that, but that's not because poker suddenly doesn't require skill, it's because you've outsourced the skill component to someone else.

Yes, but the one problem with the cheatsheet argument over the hands in poker, is that (like someone pointed out) ACES are always favored over 72o, but is Julio supposed to be favored over Roberts on any given week even before the game starts? Maybe, maybe not. There is already luck as to whether Julio is even favored over Roberts even before the game begins with. In poker, this is a no no. Aces are ALWAYS favored preflop versus 72o. In fantasy football, your "skill" is all perceived. It's an "after math effect." Julio jones will be considered > Roberts if over 16 games, he acually produces more than Roberts. In poker, ACES will always be favored pre flop, regardless if the aces are cracked. In fantasy football, if roberts somehow did better than julio, then maybe roberts was always better than julio, and julio was never the pocket aces....Again, the most you can do in fantasy football, is look at what has happened all season, and make the best educated guess you can as to what will happen. Consider the educated guess the "skill." Once the whistle starts, consider lady luck your friend.

The cheatsheet are educated guesses, nothing against them --in fact, necessary.

Fantasy football takes some skill, but luck plays just as an important role.

 

[spodog]

Fantasy football is what you make of it. It doesn't take skill to participate in it--as anybody can do it--they can click and draft a team--and roll with that team and see how it does. The key to luck is putting yourself in a position to be lucky--or to protect yourself from being unlucky. If somebody wanted to see the skill involved in being a good fantasy football owner--try drafting a team--don't make any trades, don't do any adds/drops--and see what the chances of you winning with that team are by the end of the season. I would guarantee that the odds of an owner winning a fantasy league would be astronomically lower than the odds of an owner that studies up on things and makes improvements to their team along the way. The only similarity between poker and fantasy football is that a good poker player will "get his money in good". A good poker player will basically play the odds (play hands that mathematically favor them) to their benefit. A good fantasy football owner would do the same. They will make their team and set their weekly lineups to give them the best chance of winning. However, just like in poker--once the hands are shown, and the money is in--the cards that come out can make or break you. The thing is that it is impossible to quantify what percentage of luck versus skill fantasy football is--because these percentages will vary based on the player. A really great fantasy player (one that did their homework and drafted well, bought low and sold high on players..etc) is great because they have managed to minimize the likelihood of bad luck against them. A good poker player will do the same thing. They will try to get their money in when they are a heavy favorite to win--they try to limit the likelihood of having a bad beat. This is what makes fantasy football so fun--this element of uncertainty even when you do what you can to try to limit that uncertainty.

excellent write up. great points here.

 

[just_want_2_win]

It can be luck at times and but it takes skill to consistently win.

Luck

Example 1: A few years back I was one small money ($25) league where a last minute fill in was put in at owner. This team's new owner didn't show up for the draft, so the team was auto-picked. That owner also never managed the team -- never changed lineups, never picked up players, etc. (And he never paid his fee, either.) That team started the season 8-0 and was playoff contention until the final week of the season.

Example 2: This year my wife is in a free league where she drafted Eli first and has Cruz and Bradshaw (and Andre Brown now) because she's a Giants fan. That team is 3-1. It was the league's highest scoring team in week 2 and missing being so again in week 3 by a mere 6 points. It made a furious comeback last night to win by 10. In this same league I have Rice, J. Graham, McFadden, Nicks, J. Jones, Matt Ryan, Decker through draft and trade. I'm 1-3.

Skill

Although I have those examples of luck, the years I have won a league, I mostly attribute it to good drafts and very astute and aggressive waiver wire work. Also I really massaged my starting lineups, including streaming defenses. In those instances, each victory was hard fought (seems like I hardly ever had easy wins) and I needed to practically be 100% correct in my starting lineup decisions to eek out wins. It was the equivalent of small ball in baseball.

 

[Mr. Soup Nazi]

It can be luck at times and but it takes skill to consistently win.

Luck

Example 1: A few years back I was one small money ($25) league where a last minute fill in was put in at owner. This team's new owner didn't show up for the draft, so the team was auto-picked. That owner also never managed the team -- never changed lineups, never picked up players, etc. (And he never paid his fee, either.) That team started the season 8-0 and was playoff contention until the final week of the season.

Example 2: This year my wife is in a free league where she drafted Eli first and has Cruz and Bradshaw (and Andre Brown now) because she's a Giants fan. That team is 3-1. It was the league's highest scoring team in week 2 and missing being so again in week 3 by a mere 6 points. It made a furious comeback last night to win by 10. In this same league I have Rice, J. Graham, McFadden, Nicks, J. Jones, Matt Ryan, Decker through draft and trade. I'm 1-3.

Skill

Although I have those examples of luck, the years I have won a league, I mostly attribute it to good drafts and very astute and aggressive waiver wire work. Also I really massaged my starting lineups, including streaming defenses. In those instances, each victory was hard fought (seems like I hardly ever had easy wins) and I needed to practically be 100% correct in my starting lineup decisions to eek out wins. It was the equivalent of small ball in baseball.

So basically when you lose its luck and when you win its skill. Got it.

 

[Hoss Style]

The human aspect of poker play is very much skill....the % play is not so much. There is no human aspect of fantasy football....all there is is knowing the % (or in the case of FF.....the player info).

Really? If you have been in a league with the same people over a period of years, you don't learn to recognize their tendencies and profit from that? I play exclusively in Dynasty leagues, but even when I was in redrafts certain owners were fairly predictable in their draft selections and their player evaluations. I find it quite bizarre to state that the human aspect plays no part in FF.

No. Guys change based on information that's given to them/ trends/quality and number of players by position etc. etc. The only recognizing in our league might be based on draft slots rather than owners (as QBs are highly coveted). But even then that's not individual skill...that's general knowledge.

Please don't say that because it's true in your league it must be true in all.I'm in an IDP Keeper League. I know my buddy Marc will prioritize young talent. I know Matt loves him some LBs and will reach for a potential stud. I know Aaron is a Cowboys fan and enjoys having as many viable Cowboys on his team as possible (and will trade for it in season). I know Pete and McNerney value WRs more than many others in our league.

Need I go on? If you are in a league that's been around for a few years or more then the "human aspect" is very much alive.

I'm sorry it's not a skill. It's not even the same as the "human aspect" in poker.

Again, the "it is because I say it is" response. This is becoming pointless to argue.

 

[Hoss Style]

100% luck... There is no "skill" at fantasy sports...One can study and be more informed, but this does not equate to "skill"...

Thanks for dropping your 100% knowledge on us.If you say it - it must be right. I stand corrected.

Once you realize this and accept it, everything will be fine...

...and this is the icing on the cake. Not only is the "it is because I say it is" argument in full effect here but another "There is no skill!!!" post ignores great points throughout this thread from the other side. Apparantly the posters I'm arguing against either won't read or are just to lazy to respond in kind.Speaking of poker - "You gotta know when to fold em". I fold.

 

[Bills_Fan11]

I don't know what the mathematical/economic term I'm looking for is, but I think there is definitely a certain plateau of skill that once you reach, you're not going to get a return on your time investment by scraping for every little ounce of advanced knowledge. It's just important to not be an idiot.

I think the poker analogy is pretty fair despite someone trying very hard to nit-pick at it.

And yah you guessed it, I'm 1-3. With the 3rd most points by a mile. Congrats to all the 3-1 experts and your superior "points against".

 

[Leroy Hoard]

I don't know what the mathematical/economic term I'm looking for is, but I think there is definitely a certain plateau of skill that once you reach, you're not going to get a return on your time investment by scraping for every little ounce of advanced knowledge. It's just important to not be an idiot. I think the poker analogy is pretty fair despite someone trying very hard to nit-pick at it. And yah you guessed it, I'm 1-3. With the 3rd most points by a mile. Congrats to all the 3-1 experts and your superior "points against".

last year I went sub 500 with the best point total overall.

 

[Runningman]

It is important to remember that not everyone is playing the same game. A 10 or 12 team league with 14 to 16 roster spots and a starting lineup of QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, TE and DST is a more luck dependent league than one with more roster spots and starting requirements. Having played in quite a few of those leagues on line and with family and friends it is just not a terribly demanding format once you find a viable cheatsheet on line. Deeper leagues with more roster spots and starting spots, IDP, and Auctions are all ways to make leagues more skill based and less luck dependent.

Quite frankly I think any expert could tell you that.

 

[Runningman]

I don't know what the mathematical/economic term I'm looking for is, but I think there is definitely a certain plateau of skill that once you reach, you're not going to get a return on your time investment by scraping for every little ounce of advanced knowledge. It's just important to not be an idiot. I think the poker analogy is pretty fair despite someone trying very hard to nit-pick at it. And yah you guessed it, I'm 1-3. With the 3rd most points by a mile. Congrats to all the 3-1 experts and your superior "points against".

last year I went sub 500 with the best point total overall.

Any money league I play in I try to make the sure of the pot split be equal between super bowl winner and total points winner. Ecspecially in head to head leagues.

 

[xander756]

I don't know what the mathematical/economic term I'm looking for is, but I think there is definitely a certain plateau of skill that once you reach, you're not going to get a return on your time investment by scraping for every little ounce of advanced knowledge. It's just important to not be an idiot. I think the poker analogy is pretty fair despite someone trying very hard to nit-pick at it. And yah you guessed it, I'm 1-3. With the 3rd most points by a mile. Congrats to all the 3-1 experts and your superior "points against".

last year I went sub 500 with the best point total overall.

I've seen this type of thing happen a lot of the years. I think that my proposed categorical scoring system would probably fix that problem.

 

[Khy]

The issue here is the term "skill". It's true Fantasy does take absolutely 0% skill to be good at the game. It's also far far away from 100% luck. I feel like "astute" would be a better word to describe what people are currently arguing for as 'skill'. Simple definitions:

astute: Having or showing an ability to accurately assess situations or people and turn this to one's advantage.

skill: The ability to do something well; expertise.

luck: Success or failure apparently brought by chance rather than through one's own actions.

The fact is fantasy has nothing to do with ones skill also little to do with ones luck. It can't be based on skill, nothing you as a fantasy football owner do will adjust the outcome of a players performance. At the same time it can't be based on luck because if it were purely based on luck I could have started my draft off this season by taking 3rd and 4th string players and still have an exactly equal percentage of winning going into the season as the guy who drafted 'properly'; which is simply not true. It's based on their astuteness, ones ability to properly look at all the information, research and projections that surround us involving this great game and make the best presumed decision.

/end thread

 

[beaux]

This is why I like fantasy baseball much better than football.

Fantasy baseball >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Fantasy football

 

[Thunderlips]

I don't know what the mathematical/economic term I'm looking for is, but I think there is definitely a certain plateau of skill that once you reach, you're not going to get a return on your time investment by scraping for every little ounce of advanced knowledge. It's just important to not be an idiot. I think the poker analogy is pretty fair despite someone trying very hard to nit-pick at it. And yah you guessed it, I'm 1-3. With the 3rd most points by a mile. Congrats to all the 3-1 experts and your superior "points against".

last year I went sub 500 with the best point total overall.

That's not luck. That's skill from the other teams.

 

[beaux]

100% luck... There is no "skill" at fantasy sports...One can study and be more informed, but this does not equate to "skill"...

Thanks for dropping your 100% knowledge on us.If you say it - it must be right. I stand corrected.

Once you realize this and accept it, everything will be fine...

...and this is the icing on the cake. Not only is the "it is because I say it is" argument in full effect here but another "There is no skill!!!" post ignores great points throughout this thread from the other side. Apparantly the posters I'm arguing against either won't read or are just to lazy to respond in kind.Speaking of poker - "You gotta know when to fold em". I fold.

I read the entire thread, where are the great points about this being skill?

 

[NeverEnough]

It's just like poker, a lot of luck is involved. I pick some crap hobbies it seems LOL