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Fantasy football winning probability (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter sa37no1
- Start date
mlball77
Footballguy
Without having all the details, I'm assuming you are talking about the playoffs at the end of the FF season and a six-team format… where the two highest-seeded teams get byes.
Holding all other things equal and assuming every matchup is a 50/50 probability (which in the real world is clearly not the case):
The two teams getting first round byes each have a 25% chance of winning the league and the 4 non-bye teams each have a 12.5% chance of winning the league. So overall, there is a 50% chance the league champion will be one of the two bye teams and a 50% chance that it will be one of the FOUR non-bye teams.
As a team owner, getting a first rd bye in the 6-team playoff format roughly doubles your odds of winning the league.
I could be confused… but this is what I came up with using basic probability.
Holding all other things equal and assuming every matchup is a 50/50 probability (which in the real world is clearly not the case):
The two teams getting first round byes each have a 25% chance of winning the league and the 4 non-bye teams each have a 12.5% chance of winning the league. So overall, there is a 50% chance the league champion will be one of the two bye teams and a 50% chance that it will be one of the FOUR non-bye teams.
As a team owner, getting a first rd bye in the 6-team playoff format roughly doubles your odds of winning the league.
I could be confused… but this is what I came up with using basic probability.
I don't know that you can really come up with a general probability for the teams that get byes winning the championship - and I definitely wouldn't use an "all things being equal" basis.
In the end, the best teams usually get the byes, so odds are, they have the best shot at winning assuming they stay healthy.
In the end, the best teams usually get the byes, so odds are, they have the best shot at winning assuming they stay healthy.
one time
Footballguy
Correct. Chance of winning a game is 1/2. The chance of winning all 3 weeks (no bye) is 1/(2^3) or 1/8(12.5%).The chance of winning all 2 weeks(bye) is 1/(2^2) or 1/4(25%)However, they got a bye for a reason so on average a "bye team" has a better chance than a "non-bye team".
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mlball77
Footballguy
Oh I agree that the best teams generally get byes and have better odds of winning... that is why I stipulated "all things being equal" and assuming the probablility for winning each game is 50/50... which is not reflective of the real world. When you factor in matchups and injuries etc., it totally changes things.
TheAssassin
Footballguy
Exactly correct. It is also safe to assume that ON AVERAGE the top 2 teams are better than the bottom 4 teams and equal to each other. If a top 2 team has a 60% chance to beat a lower seed then his overall chance is 30% to win the league and the lower 4 have 10% chances each.
mlball77
Footballguy
The league I play in last 7 years:
2008: 6 team playoff 1&2 bye week 1
Team #3 wins, #1 team finished #2, #2 finished #4
2007: 8 team playoff no byes
Team #8 wins, #1 and #2 eliminated first week
2006: 8 team playoff no byes
Team #5 wins, #1 finished #8, #2 finished #2
2005: 4 team playoff no byes
Team #4 wins, #1 finished #3, #2 finished #2
2004: 8 team playoff no byes
Team #1 wins, #2 finished #3
2003: 8 team playoff no byes
Team #1 wins, #2 finished #2
2002: 8 team playoff no byes
Team #3 wins, #1 finished #4, #2 finished #7
I think the best saying about fantasy football is that it takes skill to make it to the playoffs, and it takes luck to win the playoffs. You can make percentages for anything, but I think winning the playoffs is a matter of luck. With the exception of a 1st week bye, everyone has the same amount of chances of winning the league once in the playoffs.
2008: 6 team playoff 1&2 bye week 1
Team #3 wins, #1 team finished #2, #2 finished #4
2007: 8 team playoff no byes
Team #8 wins, #1 and #2 eliminated first week
2006: 8 team playoff no byes
Team #5 wins, #1 finished #8, #2 finished #2
2005: 4 team playoff no byes
Team #4 wins, #1 finished #3, #2 finished #2
2004: 8 team playoff no byes
Team #1 wins, #2 finished #3
2003: 8 team playoff no byes
Team #1 wins, #2 finished #2
2002: 8 team playoff no byes
Team #3 wins, #1 finished #4, #2 finished #7
I think the best saying about fantasy football is that it takes skill to make it to the playoffs, and it takes luck to win the playoffs. You can make percentages for anything, but I think winning the playoffs is a matter of luck. With the exception of a 1st week bye, everyone has the same amount of chances of winning the league once in the playoffs.
Pretty much...then there is always that 5 or 6 seed that got really hot late and bump off one of the top teams which throws the whole thing out of whack - it seems to happen every year in my leagues.
Alberta Clipper
Footballguy
I was searching for a topic like this and found this old post
My history the last 5 years:
46 playoff bye teams yielded 17 Championships (37.0%)
38 playoff non-bye teams yielded 9 Championships (23.7%)
I can sort of understand why bye teams would do better than the coin flip 25% but not sure why my experience the last 5 years for non-bye teams is above the 12.5%.
I would assume more luck than skill that would revert closer to the 12.5% longer term. A contributing factor is a lot of my non-bye teams are from being in leagues where 6 seed is based on total PF.
My history the last 5 years:
46 playoff bye teams yielded 17 Championships (37.0%)
38 playoff non-bye teams yielded 9 Championships (23.7%)
I can sort of understand why bye teams would do better than the coin flip 25% but not sure why my experience the last 5 years for non-bye teams is above the 12.5%.
I would assume more luck than skill that would revert closer to the 12.5% longer term. A contributing factor is a lot of my non-bye teams are from being in leagues where 6 seed is based on total PF.
Dez
Footballguy
The reason a team gets a bye wins more often is pretty simple they get a bye because they are 1 of the best teams in the league in the regular season and while that does not always carry over into the playoffs the odds would be in their favor. That said matchups will play a major role along with injuries.
It be impossible to predict odds except the basic your 1 of the final 4 teams thus 25% then add in all the other factors which would vary year to year.
It be impossible to predict odds except the basic your 1 of the final 4 teams thus 25% then add in all the other factors which would vary year to year.
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Lansdowne
Footballguy
Teams with the bye have better odds in fantasy because they aren’t subject to having a down week in the quarterfinals that leads to an upset and ends their season prematurely. Also as others pointed out, have to have a strong enough team to have earned the bye in the first place. Any Given Sunday applies to fantasy but a strong team with an automatic place in the semifinals will always have a better chance of winning the championship.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Yes just like real football a bye equals a first round win, basically doubling one's chance of winning. But unlike real football there is no "rust excuse" to go along with it the next week.
I track my team's actual and "woulda" performance every year in my main league, whether I make the playoffs or not.
I can say the following with certainty:
1. When I don't get a bye, I would have won the championship if I had gotten the bye.
2. When I do get a bye, I would have won the championship if I had not gotten the bye.
I can say the following with certainty:
1. When I don't get a bye, I would have won the championship if I had gotten the bye.
2. When I do get a bye, I would have won the championship if I had not gotten the bye.
Alberta Clipper
Footballguy
the way my portfolio has certain concentrations I am prone to results greater or lower than the 25% for bye teams...
i.e. LAMAR smashed wk17 one recent year which my high % carried the results
i.e. LAMAR smashed wk17 one recent year which my high % carried the results
titusbramble
Footballguy
You know they say all fantasy football teams are created equal, but you look at me and you look at sa37no1, and you can see that statement is not true. See normally you go one on one with another fantasy football team you have a 50/50 shot at winning. But I'm a genetic freak, and I'm not normal, so you got a 25% chance at best to beat me. Then you throw Kurt Angle into the mix? Your chances of running drastic go down. You see the three way at Sacrifice, you got a 33 1/3 chance of winning. But I, I got a 66 2/3 chance of winning, cause Kurt Angle knows he can't beat me, and he's not even gonna try. So sa37no1, you take your 33 1/3 chance, minus my 25% chance, and you got an 8 1/3 chance of winning at Sacrifice. But if you take my 75% chance, if we was to go one on one, and then add 66 2/3 percents, I got a 141 and 2/3 chance of winning at Sacrifice. Senor sa37no1, the numbers don't lie, and they spell disaster for you at Sacrifice
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