this was my first survivor draft and it was a lot of fun. i'm really looking forward to the competition this season... given the competitiveness of the draft, it should be a dog fight...
overall i'm happy with how the draft turned out & like the team... i do think it has some flaws & i made a few tactical errors, but it was a learning experience... that is the good thing about leagues & threads like this... by sharing our thought processes we can collectively & collaboratively become smarter... one reason i enjoy IDP leagues in general is that it creates more ways to win, & it is interesting to see which strategies work best...
about bye weeks & positional breakdown commentary to follow...
cont. - my usual strategy is to wait on IDP, stocking up on skill position players, especially RBs with the flex, & WRs... than hit IDP hard, adding some value at QB & TE after adding some anchor IDPs at LB & DE... than zig zag through offense & defense the rest of the way... finding value where it presents itself... i try and alternate offense & defense (not necessaily every two picks, but in general), but will certainly take a few offense or defense picks in a row if the board & my existing roster dictates it... i really sloughed DB & DT, which is typical... i didn't get any willis types at LB, but i think my group will be solid & was good value where taken... no mario williams at DE, but also like the group... & though taken very late, the DB group could surprise...
clearly the strength of the offense is the RB & WR groups, which should be pretty good... i also think the TEs could be sneaky good & were good value where taken... hope the QBs can muddle through & not give up too much, as that was the price of loading up for bear at RB/WR...
as i said, this was first survivor draft for me... i had asked somebody for any general strategic pointers (i had seen some draft commentaries by dodds, & had learned some corollaries of best ball format... ie - good to have 3 QBs, sometimes you can make up for not prioritizing position like WR ((& stocking up elsewhere)) by throwing a few extra players at the problem, hoping for some of the erratic scoring to be cancelled out by some peaks occuring at same time as inevitable troughs)... anyways, byes didn't come up...
in retrospect, maybe it was considered too obvious, like not reminding people to breathe or not jump out of windows... i think especially in the mid & later rounds, i will attend to that a lot more closely in the future... i didn't realize it until about the 4th-5th round... even then, some of the players i got early (like moss, calvin johnson & maroney all with week 4 bye) were compellingly good & i couldn't resist taking on the early bye risk... if all goes well, i won't finish 8th or 9th out of 9 in week four (assuming i get to week four), & than will have those three strengthening my roster rest of the way (assuming they stay healthy)... if not, i'll be rethinking my strategy, after testing it out in this 2008 "laboratory" of ideas on survivor roster construction optimization...
hopefully i drafted well enough & have sufficient depth to have coverage AROUND some of these early byes at just about every position group...
i also should have clearly mapped out the number of starters at each positional group beforehand... 38 rounds seemed like a lot of picks, & i figured on sorting it out as i went along, but got boxed in at a few places (notably DB) late in the draft... warner as a 4th QB was a luxury that came at the expense of DB depth, as was using two picks on WAS rookie WRs... also, not sure i needed 6 LBs... also, somebody in one of the drafts took a DT with week 10 bye, which was good idea... even if they get injured, its just a DT...
12.03 - Young, Vince TEN QB - 6
15.10 - Kitna, Jon DET QB - 4
18.03 - Jackson, Tarvaris MIN QB - 8
23.10 - Warner, Kurt ARI QB - 7
young & kitna have upside... at worst, they should be decent... VY can surprise by running more (dinger was around when mcnair blossomed), & kitna throws to one of best WR tandems in the league (not TOO worried about his losing job in first two months)... warner as noted was a luxury as a QB4, which i might not have done given a do-over, though if he ends up starting will make my QBs better in a hurry, & would end up being one of most valuable players drafted at that point... all in all, though, i'd rather have the stronger DB rotation on a weekly basis as a sure thing than the maybe that warner takes over (less than 50%, but maybe like 30-40%, imo?)... waited on QB, wanted two decent ones & three starters, so took three in fairly rapid succession... not a great group, but i'm OK with it in that it enabled getting a strong RB/WR corp, which i wanted with flex & best ball format...
2.03 - Lynch, Marshawn BUF RB - 6
4.03 - James, Edgerrin ARI RB - 7
5.10 - Maroney, Laurence NEP RB - 4
19.10 - Fargas, Justin OAK RB - 5
25.10 - Morris, Sammy NEP RB - 4
like the lynch/james/maroney three headed monster... lynch could have top 5-10 upside, james could be marginal top 10 & maroney could be anywhere from top 10-20 (who knows what lurks in the heart of belichick?)... RBBC-types were petering out by the time i got fargas... he re-signed & should still have a place in the rotation even with blue-chip addition mcfadden...
1.10 - Moss, Randy NEP WR - 4
3.10 - Holt, Torry STL WR - 5
6.03 - Johnson, Calvin DET WR - 4
8.03 - Coles, Laveranues NYJ WR - 5
11.10 - Porter, Jerry JAC WR - 7
26.03 - Kelly, Malcolm WAS WR - 10
27.10 - Thomas, Devin WAS WR - 10
really like the top four WRs, & porter could have upside if his hammy gets better... took a flyer on one of the two WAS rookies emerging as a starter, though they have had setbacks in camp already which doesn't bode well... in retrospect again, asking much from any rookie WR, especially in first 8 games is asking a lot, & i would have probably done better to get one vet instead of two rookies for that slot... didn't think i'd be able to get a WR stable like this, given that i spent three top six picks at RB... these two groups should be the strength of the team & health permitting, could elevate it into the next stage (in john mclaughlin & carlos santana's evolution - avatar/logo/icon joke)...
16.03 - McMichael, Randy STL TE - 5
17.10 - Watson, Ben NEP TE - 4
rams new OC saunders has had a pro bowl TE for something like 7-8 years running, between t-gon & cooley... mcmichael should produce more like his best seasons in MIA than last years dismal effort, when he had to stay at home in pass pro often... watson is injury prone, but productive when he plays... like QB, waited but than got the second immediately after... these guys could be sneaky good... don't know if mcmichael has top 5 upside, but i expect him to finish in the TE6-8 range...
34.03 - Bironas, Rob TEN PK - 6
37.10 - Longwell, Ryan MIN PK - 8
TEN & MIN could be good enough to move the ball but might score a lot of field goals...
36.03 - Ryan, Clifton STL DT - 5
38.03 - Mebane, Brandon SEA DT - 4
this is what you get when you wait until the last three rounds to round out your DT crew (don't try this at home, kids
), though for me, unless you can get a guy like okoye, i'd rather just pass & take the value at other offensive & defensive positions much earlier...
9.10 - Kerney, Patrick SEA DE - 4
13.10 - Ogunleye, Adewale CHI DE - 8
20.03 - Adams, Gaines TBB DE - 10
29.10 - Harvey, Derrick JAC DE - 7
i agree with aaron's observation upthread that it is a good thing to have two very good DEs in this format, & even better to have depth in best ball... kerney & ogunleye both have top 5-10 upside & adams top 15-20, & were good value where they went... harvey may not contribute a lot (especially in the needed first eight games), if he doesn't get his contract done soon...
7.10 - Witherspoon, Will STL LB - 5
10.03 - Peterson, Mike JAC LB - 7
14.03 - Brackett, Gary IND LB - 4
21.10 - Thornton, David TEN LB - 6
22.03 - Mayo, Jerod NEP LB - 4
33.10 - Tinoisamoa, Pisa STL LB - 5
i prioritize LBs on defense about as much as RB/WRs on offense (DEs close second)... again, waited on LB but than got three in fairly rapid succession... spoon & peterson both have top 10 upside, brackett top 15-20... thornton & mayo provide bye week coverage & could have some big weeks that makes the rotation stronger on any given week... tino could be a pleasant surprise & finish in the LB30s IF he stays healthy, but as i said, five LBs might have been enough... LB is a brutal position (as is RB), so it is very possible he comes in handy if somebody gets dinged... than again, HE will probably be the most likely to get dinged early, so a questionable depth/insurance-type pick...
24.03 - Finnegan, Cortland TEN CB - 6
30.03 - Hayden, Kelvin IND CB - 4
31.10 - Griffin, Michael TEN CB - 6
32.03 - Talib, Aqib TBB CB - 10
obviously waited a long time at CB & S (though not as long as DT
)... BTW, i'm banking on griffin being listed at S or i made a strategic error... as noted above, some of the extra offensive picks & six LBs cost me DB depth... next time, i'll draft four from each group... if griffin moves i have three each... if he doesn't i'll be hurtin for certain at S, especially during bye weeks & any injuries... that said, i like this CB group (better than safeties)... finnegan was among tackle leaders for CBs & is feisty in run support... i agree predicting INTs is near impossible, but i feel that i have a better sense of which CBs tackle well (through scouting, scheme knowledge, etc)... either hayden or marlin jackson (or both) could have top 10 upside... unlike jackson, who came into the league as a very experienced DB, hayden played some WR in college, is relatively new to the position & could still get a lot better... talib my second favorite rookie CB after flowers, & i expect him to start, get picked on & he is in tamp bay cover two... but there is risk associated with any rookie CB...
28.03 - Bethea, Antoine IND S - 4
35.10 - Pool, Brodney CLE S
bethea missed some time but projected much higher if he played a full slate of 16 games... i'm treating griffin as a safety (obviously that helps CB & hurts S if not, and probably hurts the latter more than helps the former so hoping it doesn't happen like that)... i think he has star potential, but am aware that he may have some scheme & surrounding talent (too GOOD
) constraints to contend with... pool was one of last viable starting safeties left, & actually could have some upside... would like to have gotten four CBs & safeties...
i count my first survivor draft as an overall success, & think the roster has more positives than negatives (strengths RB/WR & LB/DE), but could have been even better... i'll add this experience, & will definitely pre-map out the number at each defensive position more carefully next time, obviously...
good luck to everybody, & thanx for an enjoyable draft...