FBG QB Predictions: Goff and Ryan (1 Viewer)

[ryoung011]

I draft and manage my team using FBG projections, and rarely do anything other than what their predictions suggest.  However, that may change moving forward.  Week 10's projections had Ryan slightly higher than Goff, so I started the Falcon's QB.  I lost my matchup by 5pts, and would have won both my matchup AND the week's point total prize had I started Goff.

Goff has been on a tear, and yet FBG seems to still favor Ryan moving forward (using the "top 200 forward" rankings): 

Ryan 124

Goff 116

Here is the projection accuracy for these two (projected minus actual points) over the last two weeks (9,10):

Goff: -27, -18 = -45pts (scored 45pts more than predicted, 22.5 per week)

Ryan: -6, 2.8 = -3.2pts (scored 3.2pts more than predicted)

I realize that Ryan may have an easier schedule moving forward, but Goff seems to be the most likely to score.

I just don't understand why Goff's predictions have been higher than Ryan...hopefully Dodds and Norton will get on board the Goff train so I don't have to keep second guessing!

 

[Steeler]

Oh boy, good luck with the thread 

 

[fred_1_15301]

     

 

[Milkman]

It takes them a while to change their preconceived notions. Really we all have to fight that. Goff is leading one of the best offenses in the league now.......who would have said that before the season started? The ball he throws looks very similar to Tom Brady's......just darts everywhere.......Not a lot of QB I'd rather have in dynasty moving forward. Schedule does tighten up with Min, NO, Seattle, Philly, Ari, Ten left but last 4 weeks he's been QB4 ppg in my leagues........I don't see that falling off to much because he's in to good of an offense now........

 

[bumpman]

The projections are just tools.  If you haven't been doing your own thinking and using the tools just as an opinion input, you are not using them correctly.  Many of the FBG prognosticators have differing views on many players with the spread sometimes being quite wide.  You are responsible for your decisions and how much weight you want to give to particular opinions.   If you like Goff, play Goff. 

I will say, that through much of the first half of the Houston game, you would have probably been worried because the Rams and Goff were mostly ineffective.  The fact that Savage imploded, handing the ball over to the Rams three times catalyzed a rout and the demoralization of the Houston defense.  If that hadn't happened, you probably wouldn't be here announcing that there is something wrong with the FBG projections.