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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (2 Viewers)

Today:

TB -3

NYG +3

Car +3.5

CLE -1.5

Ten +7

7 point teaser RR by 3's with NE, ATL, CIN, MIA and Car (Not a strict wong and probably not +ev, but the extra point gets it to 10 on some. It will be interesting to see if that comes into play. Played it this way as there were not a lot of strong Wong plays that I found this week and stubbornly wanted to play something along these lines.

GLTA
AB

 
Bills team total under 20.5. And because i have this hate for the city of WKRP right now, Bears 1st quarter, Bears 1st half, Bears gameML. The bearcats are supposed to be one of the best teams in that conference. HAHAHAHAHA!!! The mighty fighting Illini handled them as easily as the Saluki's. They suck, that is all.

 
My heavy today is Saints -3...looking at Panthers, 49'ers and Giants-Cowboys OVER as well...

ETA - Saints -3 (-120)

 
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on Bengals hot and heavy. +3 and SU.

Bucs line is now 4.5 :oldunsure:

Panthers +3.5 for small.

RR ML Parlay Panthers, Bengals, Falcons, Eagles. Pays great, but it's a pipe dream.

 
Guster said:
Raider Nation said:
***LAS VEGAS SHARPS REPORT -- WEEK 1***

:excited: :excited: :excited:

Edition #1 goes out to my boy mcquinnnnnjrrrrrrr, who helped me do a bunch of nerdy stuff with my fantasy rankings! :banned:

The first game of the 2013 regular season is in the books. Now lets take a look at how sharps (professional wagerers) have been betting the rest of Week One in the NFL. Note that this week is unique because the opening lines went up WEEKS ago. How sharps bet the openers over the summer may not reflect their current opinions on games because of quarterback changes or other prominent developments. With that in mind, well focus more on how sharps have been betting THIS WEEK.

As always, we take the games in rotation order so you can makes notes on your schedules

NEW ENGLAND AT BUFFALO: This line has hopped around based on the quarterback news for the Buffalo Bills. When it looked like Jeff Tuel was going to get the start (an undrafted rookie who didnt even shine at the college level), the Patriots were as high as -10.5 or -11. Now that E.J. Manuel is reportedly healthy enough to perform (a drafted rookie who the franchise hopes is their QB of the future)the line has settled in around New England -9 or 9.5. Sharps are taking Buffalo at +10 with Manuel. Sharps who thought whoever turned out to be the eventual Bills QB would be in over his headtook the Patriots before this week at a low point of -7.

TENNESSEE AT PITTSBURGH: There hasnt been much interest here. Existing action has been of the tug-of-war varietywith Pittsburgh money coming in at -6.5, and Tennessee money coming in at +7. Thats because seven is a key numbers. Sharps with opinions are playing the percentages. We have heard many cases of sharps having strong opinions in this one.

ATLANTA AT NEW ORLEANS: More than a few sharps are looking at New Orleans as a value team this season, as they get their head coach back with a chip on his shoulder. The Saints are getting respect here at -3 with extra juice of -120 or higher given the fact that Atlanta was a #1 seed last year and just missed going to the Super Bowl. Oddsmakers know Atlanta money would come in at +3.5 with a playoff caliber dog getting more than a key number. The line will only go that high if squares (the public) comes in on the Saints between now and kickoff. Basically, sharps like New Orleans at -3 with -110 juice, but the percentage value would flip over to the Falcons at +3.5 because field goal finishes are so common in evenly matched NFL games.

TAMPA BAY AT THE NY JETS: Tampa Bay was hit by sharps during the summerwhich pushed the line to the Bucs -2.5 when it was assumed that Mark Sanchez would be the starting quarterbackor an effective Geno Smith would get the call after winning the job in Preseason. Well, Geno Smith has been horribleand Sanchez is out with an injury. Thats pushed the line to Tampa Bay -3.5 without any Jets buy back. Some stores are testing Tampa Bay -4 to see if that brings in New York money. Sharps currently consider the Jets to be one of the worst teams in the NFL.

KANSAS CITY AT JACKSONVILLE: Sharps feel the same way about Jacksonville! And, this is almost a mirror scenario to the game above. Sharps liked Kansas City over the summer as a cheap road favorite because Andy Reid was likely to get the Chiefs at least moving in the right direction. The fact that the Jaguars cant figure out what to do at quarterback (amongst bad choices) encouraged more Chiefs money to come in. Kansas Citys favored by -4, and were seeing -4.5 get tested.

CINCINNATI AT CHICAGO: Not much action here. Chicago is a 3-point favorite in a battle of evenly matched teams. Any move off the key number would get flooded by sharp money. Wed only see a move if the public comes in hard on the Bears before kickoff. Thats possible because Chicago is a public team when things are going well. Squares may be waiting to see improvement before committing.

MIAMI AT CLEVELAND: Its odd to see a tug-of-war with a price this low. Theres not a key number involved. But, were seeing the line flip flop here through the week between pick-em and Cleveland -1. Browns backers are investing at pick-em. Miami money comes in at +1. Sharps are basically split on the game (and the outlook this year for the teams), and those factions are taking the best price they see.

SEATTLE AT CAROLINA: Generally speaking, sharps LOVE Seattle. They pounded them late last year and made big money. They love this defense. They love what theyre seeing from Russell Wilson at quarterback. This game has been over the key number for quite a while nowCarolina is actually reasonably respected in Vegas starting the new seasonbut the number isnt moving towards the key number. Seattle -3.5 has been bet up to -4, and -4.5 is being tested. For the time being, Seattle is going to be priced like a Super Bowl team, even if the public is slow to fall in love with them.

MINNESOTA AT DETROIT: Many in the media have been surprised about the support for Detroit. The Lions opened at -3 but are now -5 in most places. How can that be if Minnesota was a playoff team last year and Detroit missed by a mile? Our sources are telling us sharps believe Detroit is in for a big bounce back in 2013 after turnovers and other bad luck ruined 2012. Sharps are also skeptical of Minnesota catching breaks two years in a row. This line is telling you sharps have the Lions two points better in their Power Ratings, regardless of what last year looked like.

OAKLAND AT INDIANAPOLIS: Indianapolis was favored by -7 or-7.5 for much of the summer. The quarterback developments in Oakland have put the Raiders on the short list of worst teams to bet along with the NY Jets and Jacksonville. Terrelle Pryor will get the start for Oakland. Sharps dont have much faith in him, or Matt Flynn. The line is now up to -10 in many places. We are seeing some sharps take shots at the Raiders at +10 or +10.5. As weve said in past seasons, many old school guys will take double digits in any NFL game on principal. The math guys tend to favor the Colts up to and including -10. Will the public back the Colts on game day?

ARIZONA AT ST. LOUIS: The Rams were -6 at home during the summer, getting respect off a better-than-realized 2012 that had them holding their own against the toughest schedule in the league. But, Arizona was more competitive than sharps had expected during the Preseasonwith a new head coach and new starting quarterback. That led the Wise Guys to bet Arizona at +6, +5.5, and at +5. Were now seeing St. Louis by 4.5 in most places.

GREEN BAY AT SAN FRANCISCO: The 49ers opened at -5.5 over the summer, getting respect as the defending NFC champions. They didnt exactly set the world on fire during the Preseason though. That led many sharps to take the Packers at +5.5 and at +5 assuming a Super Bowl Letdown may be in order even if the Niners didnt win the trophy. Green Bay has revenge from a playoff loss on this field, and a regular season loss in Week One last year to the Niners at Lambeau.

NY GIANTS AT DALLAS: This line opened at Dallas -3. Weve told you often that it takes a lot of money to move a game off the three. Well, that money HAS been coming in on Dallas. Sharps have soured on the NY Giants based on how poorly they ended last yearand how sluggish they were in the Preseason. Dallas is seen as similar to Detroitmeaning a team poised for a bounce back if turnover luck turns around. Sharps bet Dallas aggressively at -3, andmost importantlydidnt buy the Giants back at +3.5.

MONDAY

PHILADELPHIA AT WASHINGTON: Interesting game hereand theres plenty of time between now and kickoff for it to get more interesting! The summer line was Washington -5, on the assumption that RGIII would be back, and that the Eagles would struggle to adjust to a new head coach. There were concerns about RGIII truly being readywhile the Eagles seemed to move the ball very well in the Preseasonwhich brought the line down to as low as Washington -3. This weeksharps have been hitting the Redskins without buying back on the Eagles at +3.5suggesting that sharps have settled on Washington -3 as the best way to play this one given all the indicators. We can report that many sharp groups are watching the Eagles closelyan the assumption that they could take the NFC by storm if they can play clean football in this up-tempo offense.

HOUSTON AT SAN DIEGO: Another game that opened at favorite -3 (Houston in this case)in a city where it takes a lot of money to move off a threeand that money did come in on the favorite with no buy back. San Diegos offense struggled badly in the Preseason for the most part. Houston is a playoff team with a history of taking care of business vs. poor opponents. Sharps like Houston at -3, and didnt buy back on San Diego +3.5. We may see this line move to Houston -4 or -4.5 by kickoff Monday.
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:excited:

Read this morning, but was driving so I couldn't post. NOW football has officially started.

:football:

 
The Ref said:
Big first weekend coming up for me. I made a lot of bets in the preseason with money left over from last season and "heat money." I tied a lot of it up on season props and futures. I did however make some week 1 pays and I managed to come out ahead on line moves.

Patriots -7 345/300

Patriots Under 52 550/500

Tampa Bay -2.5 345/300

Jets +10 110/100 Tease

Bills +16.5 110/100 Tease

Wazzu +16.5 55/50

Hopefully some of these come in otherwise I'll be short stacked.
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I love getting killed in week 1

 
That sound you hear is the sigh of relief from about a gillion football fans who had the Pats and Colts as the last two legs of square ML chalk parlays.

 
Dan Lambskin said:
swirvenirvin said:
The Ref said:
swirvenirvin said:
*1 Ridley over 90.5 rushing
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We got a paid professional in here and I'm gong to let him do his thing.... but I'm fully expecting this one to be on the card.
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Its actually less on Bovada like 85.5 I think. I grabbed it on SB last night.

Love the Reggie Bush over 3.5 too
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only 80.5 for me...think I have to play this one
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Of course, well on his way to getting this over with 46 yards in the 2nd qtr, and then benched for fumbles.

Got Lucky with Amendola coming back from a groin injury, dont see that much.

*1.5 Amandola over 6 rec Winner

*1 Ridley over 90.5 rushing Loser

*.75 Dalton over 20 com Winner

*.75 V Jackson over 4.5 rec -125 Winner

*.75 L. Moore over 64.5 rec Loser

*.75 S- Jackson o 64.5 -125. Winner

*1 M.Wallace under 4.5 rec Winner

*2 R. Bush over 3.5 rec -155 Winner

*1 Geno Smith over .5 INT -200 Winner
*1 Sproles over 4.5 rec -115 Winner
 
Dan Lambskin said:
gmbacm said:
Raider Nation said:
Aaron Rudnicki said:
Raider Nation said:
The Pats are the other obvious survivor pick. But you could at least envision Spiller going nuts, leading to an improbable win.

The Raiders have nothing.
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Pats are a lock but better to save them for a future week IMO
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That's the primary thought process. Would be nice to get all 5 entries through without using a Super-Elite team.
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think im going with indy/pit for my two
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went Indy and Tampa Bay in my two
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My sympathies. Brutal way to lose. :no:

 
Guster said:
Heep said:
Heep said:
Alright NFL picks this week:

KC -4Seattle - 3.5Houston -3.5TB -3 Miami +1.5

6-5 CFB0-0 NFL
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Good luck today boys!
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Talk to me about that MIA pick. I'm all over CLE today. Think their offense will come out rolling and put up 20+. Their D should still be decent and don't see them giving up more than ~14 to Miami.
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Do not like Weeden and I like what they are doing down in Miami. I think they have a good team if Tannehill doesn't put the D in bad situations...

 
Holy #### the ####### saints game. Had big free money on th eML and o30. They didnt hit the o, but its all good, were gonna win the supernboel

 
The Steelers and Bucs alone combined to wipe out almost 25% of a $10K pool. That's what I'm talkin' about!

Do we dare take the potentially crappy Raiders at home against the definitely crappy Jags next week? :popcorn:

 
Raider Nation said:
The Steelers and Bucs alone combined to wipe out almost 25% of a $10K pool. That's what I'm talkin' about!

Do we dare take the potentially crappy Raiders at home against the definitely crappy Jags next week? :popcorn:
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I think taking anyone vs. the Jags is a good bet. Especially with Pryor looking awesome for about 59 minutes...

 
Raider Nation said:
The Steelers and Bucs alone combined to wipe out almost 25% of a $10K pool. That's what I'm talkin' about!

Do we dare take the potentially crappy Raiders at home against the definitely crappy Jags next week? :popcorn:
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I'm shocked that many people were on Steelers. I'm a Titans fan and understand we are not a playoff team. But neither are the Steelers and they lack a run game and a big body at WR. I thought the Titans would lose, but definitely didn't think it was worthy of a survivor style pick.

 
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