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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (8 Viewers)

I can see this game playing out a few ways. Denver getting shutout is not one of them.

It's been friggin cold here the past week or so. 18 degrees at the moment. But as the good doctor said, the weather in this region can change in a blink. We had a day here a few weeks ago where the high temperature was 51 and the low was 6. I will say though, that we don't get too many balmy days here in February. It's definitely the coldest month.

 
I'm taking Seattle with whatever the final points are, Seattle ML, Under, and every combination of those three parlayed and teased.

I'll take under on every Denver team and player prop.

This might be the first Super Bowl that ends in a shut-out,

Seattle 35-0, with two defensive scores.
We get it. Pats fan that doesn't like Manning. Thanks for your input
If it wasn't being played in 10 degree weather with wind and maybe snow, I'd give them a chance. But with those elements and that defense, I don't see Denver being very productive,
Giving them a chance and suggesting they will be shut out are two different things. Right now the 10 day forecast looks like in the 30s with low chance of precip and winds under 10 mph
There is no such thing as a 10 day forecast in the North East. Here's what I know about Feb 2nd around here. It will be no higher than 10 degrees by kickoff and windy. This favors Seattle big time, because not only will Lynch be getting a lot of rushing yards, but so will Wilson.

If this game was played in a dome, I'd take Denver and the over.

 
I'm taking Seattle with whatever the final points are, Seattle ML, Under, and every combination of those three parlayed and teased.

I'll take under on every Denver team and player prop.

This might be the first Super Bowl that ends in a shut-out,

Seattle 35-0, with two defensive scores.
Dude, if you are serious, here are the Bovada.com margin of victory odds:

Margin of Victory

Seattle Seahawks 1 to 6 points 15/4

Seattle Seahawks 7 to 12 points 5/1

Seattle Seahawks 13 to 18 points 8/1

Seattle Seahawks 19 to 24 points 16/1

Seattle Seahawks 25 to 30 points 28/1

Seattle Seahawks 31 to 36 points 40/1

Seattle Seahawks 37 or more points 33/1
Thanks, I bet through Bovada as it is.

 
I'm taking Seattle with whatever the final points are, Seattle ML, Under, and every combination of those three parlayed and teased.

I'll take under on every Denver team and player prop.

This might be the first Super Bowl that ends in a shut-out,

Seattle 35-0, with two defensive scores.
We get it. Pats fan that doesn't like Manning. Thanks for your input
If it wasn't being played in 10 degree weather with wind and maybe snow, I'd give them a chance. But with those elements and that defense, I don't see Denver being very productive,
Giving them a chance and suggesting they will be shut out are two different things. Right now the 10 day forecast looks like in the 30s with low chance of precip and winds under 10 mph
There is no such thing as a 10 day forecast in the North East. Here's what I know about Feb 2nd around here. It will be no higher than 10 degrees by kickoff and windy. This favors Seattle big time, because not only will Lynch be getting a lot of rushing yards, but so will Wilson.

If this game was played in a dome, I'd take Denver and the over.
And you are basing your "forecast" on what, exactly? I agree that 10 day models can be sketchy, but they are certainly more accurate than the guy predicting a 35-0 blowout talking out his ###.

 
I'm taking Seattle with whatever the final points are, Seattle ML, Under, and every combination of those three parlayed and teased.

I'll take under on every Denver team and player prop.

This might be the first Super Bowl that ends in a shut-out,

Seattle 35-0, with two defensive scores.
We get it. Pats fan that doesn't like Manning. Thanks for your input
If it wasn't being played in 10 degree weather with wind and maybe snow, I'd give them a chance. But with those elements and that defense, I don't see Denver being very productive,
Giving them a chance and suggesting they will be shut out are two different things. Right now the 10 day forecast looks like in the 30s with low chance of precip and winds under 10 mph
There is no such thing as a 10 day forecast in the North East. Here's what I know about Feb 2nd around here. It will be no higher than 10 degrees by kickoff and windy. This favors Seattle big time, because not only will Lynch be getting a lot of rushing yards, but so will Wilson.

If this game was played in a dome, I'd take Denver and the over.
And you are basing your "forecast" on what, exactly? I agree that 10 day models can be sketchy, but they are certainly more accurate than the guy predicting a 35-0 blowout talking out his ###.
Well, the 35-0 was a little on the sarcastic side, but I'm confident on Seattle winning easily, and the under.

 
SUPER BOWL XLVIII SPECIALS - How long will it take Renee Fleming to sing the official US National Anthem?
From first note starts until she completes saying "Brave" for the 1st time.

5:30p
Over 2 minutes 25 seconds
EVEN

Under 2 minutes 25 seconds
-140
OVER.

Keys did it in 2:35 last year. Now 2:25 is a very long anthem, but this lady is well known for going long.

 
There is no such thing as a 10 day forecast in the North East. Here's what I know about Feb 2nd around here. It will be no higher than 10 degrees by kickoff and windy. This favors Seattle big time, because not only will Lynch be getting a lot of rushing yards, but so will Wilson.

If this game was played in a dome, I'd take Denver and the over.
you can bet props on the weather since you are so certain here. why bet on the Seahawks when you already know what the temp will be?

Current lines at Bovada:


SUPER BOWL XLVIII SPECIALS - Will it snow during the game?
From kickoff until Final whistle, must be clearly shown on tv, Book Manager's decision is final. NO OVERLIMITS
5:30p
Yes
+300

No
-500


SUPER BOWL XLVIII SPECIALS - What will be the temperature at Kickoff?
Book Manager's decision is final. Must be shown or mentioned on TV during broadcast. NO OVERLIMITS
5:30p
Over 32 degrees Fahrenheit
-120

Under 32 degrees Fahrenheit
-120


SUPER BOWL XLVIII SPECIALS - What will be the lowest temperature during the game?
Book Manager's decision is final. Must be shown or mentioned on TV during broadcast. NO OVERLIMITS
5:30p
Over 28 degrees Fahrenheit
-120

Under 28 degrees Fahrenheit
-120
 
So far I'm on....

Under 32 Deg at kickoff

Under 28 During game

Reference to #1 Seattle D more then Den #1 O

Under 27.5 "Omahas" by Peyton Manning (Already regret this one)

Over 2:25 national anthem

Yes she will wear gloves

Not more then 114 Million Viewers for the halftime show (this clown aint beating Madonna)

Yes one of the Red Hot Chili Peppers being shirtless (half unit on this one)

Bruno Mars will wear a Fedora to start the show

Yes the RHCP and BM will play one song together

 
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Historically on Feb 2:

  • High temperatures at or below freezing: Once every four years
  • Measurable precipitation falls: Two out of every five years
  • Measurable snow falls: Just shy of once every five years
 
Washington O/U at home: 7-4-0 and 0-3 L3. They are 1-6 to the over L7 overall. Oregon's games are 12-3 to the over (3-2 away). Oregon is 0-4 SU and ATS L4 (avg line -2.8) and has allowed 89.5 ppg in those last four games.

 
SUPER BOWL XLVIII SPECIALS - Will Percy Harvin be injured in the game? (Must be injured and reported by broadcasters and not return to game)
Must play in game for action. NO OVERLIMITS
6:30p​
Yes
+200​
No
-300
-300 is pretty good decent odds here.

 
:frostyfive:

224000852-1 Pending 2 Team Teaser (ties win) Teaser tw 5fb & 4bk

Win 1/22/14 11:00pm College Basketball 790 UNLV -½ * vs Utah State

Pending 2/2/14 6:30pm NFL Football 102 Denver Broncos +4 * vs Seattle Seahawks

223976100-1 Pending 3 Team Teaser (ties win) Teaser tw 5fb & 4bk

Win 1/22/14 7:00pm College Basketball 724 Richmond +1 * vs Massachusetts

Win 1/22/14 7:00pm College Basketball 730 Michigan +1 * vs Iowa

Pending 2/2/14 6:30pm NFL Football 102 Denver Broncos +4 * vs Seattle Seahawks

Opening up my middle window from DEN +4 to SEA +10.
:hifive:

I've got Den +7 to Sea +10
I'm a bit of a novice, but I learn a lot from following this thread. So this might be a dumb question. Is this a single bet that pays as long as Denver +7 or Seattle +10 wins? Seems like a pretty wide spread, does a bet like that have a lot of vig? Or are these two totally separate bets with alternate spreads? If it is the latter, how do you win? Wouldn't you just about break even?

 
ML parlay

01/23/14
Cincinnati
-1400

21:00 ET





01/23/14
UofArizona
-1400

21:00 ET





01/23/14
MemphisU
-1100

20:00 ET





01/23/14
OhioSt
-710

19:00 ET





01/23/14
PennSt
-210

20:00 ET





01/23/14
StJohns
-200

 
I'm taking Seattle with whatever the final points are, Seattle ML, Under, and every combination of those three parlayed and teased.

I'll take under on every Denver team and player prop.

This might be the first Super Bowl that ends in a shut-out,

Seattle 35-0, with two defensive scores.
We get it. Pats fan that doesn't like Manning. Thanks for your input
If it wasn't being played in 10 degree weather with wind and maybe snow, I'd give them a chance. But with those elements and that defense, I don't see Denver being very productive,
Giving them a chance and suggesting they will be shut out are two different things. Right now the 10 day forecast looks like in the 30s with low chance of precip and winds under 10 mph
There is no such thing as a 10 day forecast in the North East. Here's what I know about Feb 2nd around here. It will be no higher than 10 degrees by kickoff and windy. This favors Seattle big time, because not only will Lynch be getting a lot of rushing yards, but so will Wilson.

If this game was played in a dome, I'd take Denver and the over.
And you are basing your "forecast" on what, exactly? I agree that 10 day models can be sketchy, but they are certainly more accurate than the guy predicting a 35-0 blowout talking out his ###.
Well, the 35-0 was a little on the sarcastic side, but I'm confident on Seattle winning easily, and the under.
Betting the over with a kickoff temp of freezing or below and a total of < 48 has been remarkably profitable over the last decade. The public always overreacts to bad weather.

 
I'm a bit of a novice, but I learn a lot from following this thread. So this might be a dumb question. Is this a single bet that pays as long as Denver +7 or Seattle +10 wins? Seems like a pretty wide spread, does a bet like that have a lot of vig? Or are these two totally separate bets with alternate spreads? If it is the latter, how do you win? Wouldn't you just about break even?
assuming you have one teaser with DEN +7 as the last leg and another teaser with SEA +10 as the last leg, then if the game winds up anywhere in the middle, you win both bets. if it winds up outside the range, you lose one but win one.

low risk with the potential for high reward.

taken at a smaller level, it's pretty easy to bet the DEN ML and SEA +3. You can't lose both bets but if DEN wins by 3 or less, you can win or push the SEA bet. When you add in teasers, you give yourself a much wider range of outcomes to middle the game and win both sides.

 
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SUPER BOWL XLVIII SPECIALS - Will Percy Harvin be injured in the game? (Must be injured and reported by broadcasters and not return to game)
Must play in game for action. NO OVERLIMITS
6:30p​
Yes
+200​
No
-300
-300 is pretty good decent odds here.
Yep, no brainer good bet here.

Also played:

No both teams make 33+ yd fg

Under 2 Beastmode

Under 2.5 Eli sightings (love this one)

Yes Moreno cries +400

No words omitted in anthem -300

1st down pass plays (overall and both teams)

Last score td -175

INTs over Zetterberg pts

Seattle sacks vs. Ovechkin pts

 
I thought that Moreno cries one looked pretty good too.
Did you go see Dallas Buyer's Club with him or something?
there was a huge article in Sports Illustrated last week about how he cries during the anthem.

EDIT: found this

You saw the tears. And you can't forget the tears because they were unlike any two tears you have seen. Maybe you saw them while watching CBS's broadcast of the Broncos game in Kansas City on Dec. 1, when cameras caught Denver running back Knowshon Moreno crying during the closing notes of the national anthem. Or perhaps you caught them coming out of a second-quarter commercial break, the moment rebroadcast after Moreno scored on a three-yard pass from Peyton Manning. Or maybe you saw the tears later that night on SportsCenter. Or in the GIFs and mash-ups and montages that swept across the Internet like a winter storm: Knowshon crying to Whitney Houston, Knowshon crying to Michael Bolton, Knowshon crying to Justin Timberlake.

The tears formed at the base of Moreno's eyes and then rushed over his cheekbones as if they were blasted from tiny garden hoses, enough water to nurture the grass at his feet on the Arrowhead Stadium sideline, to hydrate any small animals that might have wandered past. "Alligator tears," Paige Elway said to her husband, Broncos executive vice president John Elway, so impressed that she mixed both reptiles and idioms. It was an outpouring that reduced famous weepers **** Vermeil and Terrell Owens and Ray Lewis to wannabes. "I've never seen anybody cry like that," says Denver left guard Zane Beadles. "Never seen that amount of tears."

On the team flight back to Denver after a 35-28 win, players passed around screenshots and video of Moreno's lachrymal moment. "Guys were joking around," says rookie running back Montee Ball, "saying that they heard Knowshon slobbering and sobbing all over the place." At least three Twitter accounts were created for Knowshon's Tears. Back in Belford, N.J., where Moreno spent his adolescence, his grandmother and guardian, Mildred McQueen, started getting phone calls soon after CBS showed the tears, from friends and family.

They wanted to know, Why is Knowshon crying?
Read More: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/nfl/news/20140108/knowshon-moreno/#ixzz2rGlaWPRk

"Not uncommon at all," he says. "It's always been that way for me, all the way back to high school and college. During the anthem it's always quiet and still, so I take in the moment and say a little prayer. Usually there's no camera on me. I thank the Lord for letting me play the game. I thank Him for everything. I run through my whole life right there at that moment. Even the bad stuff."

 
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I'm taking Seattle with whatever the final points are, Seattle ML, Under, and every combination of those three parlayed and teased.

I'll take under on every Denver team and player prop.

This might be the first Super Bowl that ends in a shut-out,

Seattle 35-0, with two defensive scores.
We get it. Pats fan that doesn't like Manning. Thanks for your input
If it wasn't being played in 10 degree weather with wind and maybe snow, I'd give them a chance. But with those elements and that defense, I don't see Denver being very productive,
Giving them a chance and suggesting they will be shut out are two different things. Right now the 10 day forecast looks like in the 30s with low chance of precip and winds under 10 mph
There is no such thing as a 10 day forecast in the North East. Here's what I know about Feb 2nd around here. It will be no higher than 10 degrees by kickoff and windy. This favors Seattle big time, because not only will Lynch be getting a lot of rushing yards, but so will Wilson.

If this game was played in a dome, I'd take Denver and the over.
There is no such thing as a 10 day forecast in the North East. Here's what I know about Feb 2nd around here. It will be no higher than 10 degrees by kickoff and windy. This favors Seattle big time, because not only will Lynch be getting a lot of rushing yards, but so will Wilson.

If this game was played in a dome, I'd take Denver and the over.
you can bet props on the weather since you are so certain here. why bet on the Seahawks when you already know what the temp will be?Current lines at Bovada:

SUPER BOWL XLVIII SPECIALS - Will it snow during the game?

From kickoff until Final whistle, must be clearly shown on tv, Book Manager's decision is final. NO OVERLIMITS

5:30p

Yes

+300

No

-500

SUPER BOWL XLVIII SPECIALS - What will be the temperature at Kickoff?

Book Manager's decision is final. Must be shown or mentioned on TV during broadcast. NO OVERLIMITS

5:30p

Over 32 degrees Fahrenheit

-120

Under 32 degrees Fahrenheit

-120

SUPER BOWL XLVIII SPECIALS - What will be the lowest temperature during the game?

Book Manager's decision is final. Must be shown or mentioned on TV during broadcast. NO OVERLIMITS

5:30p

Over 28 degrees Fahrenheit

-120

Under 28 degrees Fahrenheit

-120
Seems like you should be hammering the weather props patsfan...10 degrees gives you a nice buffer from the 32 degrees that all the stupid sports books are offering

 
.... Learned quick only people who care/understand are others who gamble quite a bit
Hell yeah I'm pissed! It was 33 degrees at kickoff! And not only that, the damn fat lady went over the time limit, mispronounced perilous, SOB Knowshon Moreno didn't cry, and Bruno Mars wore a damn cowboy hat on stage! :rant:

 
We're expecting a washed-up band of junkies and a fruity Hawaiian kid to do the trick? NO -200

ETA: In re: beating Madonna's ratings record. :unsure:

 
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The whole NY Super bowl thing scares me a bit as does a Peyton Manning QB and #1 vs #1, but 47.5 Nielson and 112M viewers are a Poop Ton.

 
SUPER BOWL XLVIII SPECIALS - Will Percy Harvin be injured in the game? (Must be injured and reported by broadcasters and not return to game)
Must play in game for action. NO OVERLIMITS
6:30p​
Yes
+200​
No
-300
-300 is pretty good decent odds here.
Yep, no brainer good bet here.

Also played:

No both teams make 33+ yd fg

Under 2 Beastmode

Under 2.5 Eli sightings (love this one)

Yes Moreno cries +400

No words omitted in anthem -300

1st down pass plays (overall and both teams)

Last score td -175

INTs over Zetterberg pts

Seattle sacks vs. Ovechkin pts
where is eli? I would crush that one dont see on bovada

 

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