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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (5 Viewers)

Raider Nation said:
mquinnjr said:
Raider Nation said:
Golden State's worst 1H of the season. My one annual NBA bet was a lot of fun. :lmao:

At least it was a freebie.
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:kicksrock:

This is why I only bet what I can afford to lose. 3U in the account until payout if this is a losing ticket.
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We're good if we can get this thing to 7 overtimes.

I keep forgetting that the Jazz have played boring-ass Neanderthal Dean-Smith-4-corners basketball since the day they were established.
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It's so criminal to see Steph just kill it and...NO one else play offense.

 
mquinnjr said:
Raider Nation said:
Golden State's worst 1H of the season. My one annual NBA bet was a lot of fun. :lmao:

At least it was a freebie.
Click to expand...
:kicksrock:

This is why I only bet what I can afford to lose. 3U in the account until payout if this is a losing ticket. Need a :frosty: bounce back tomorrow :excited:
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My kid has swimming from 10-1030 so I'll be in the pool, then immediately off with him to meet my dad and brother for lunch before going to the Gopher game at 1. No chance for any serious capping tomorrow, but I can post what I play. Buyer beware.

If I don't get to post tomorrow, if these are there play Craft under on assists, Brust under on 3s, Smart over on r+a, Jefferson over on rebs, Cooney under on 3s, and fade anything on Embiid. Did a little research today.

 
mquinnjr said:
Raider Nation said:
mquinnjr said:
Raider Nation said:
Golden State's worst 1H of the season. My one annual NBA bet was a lot of fun. :lmao:

At least it was a freebie.
Click to expand...
:kicksrock:

This is why I only bet what I can afford to lose. 3U in the account until payout if this is a losing ticket.
Click to expand...
We're good if we can get this thing to 7 overtimes.

I keep forgetting that the Jazz have played boring-ass Neanderthal Dean-Smith-4-corners basketball since the day they were established.
Click to expand...
It's so criminal to see Steph just kill it and...NO one else play offense.
Click to expand...
GS doesn't play again for 4 days...I'd expect that 1) Jackson will give Steph only limited rest in the 4th and 2) he'll try to just go nuts. Should be entertaining.

 
If Nugs can entice me to watch a random NBA game, I wonder how his women at the bar skills are?

"I like the OVER here honey, and I'd like you under me in about an hour." Boom.

 
We move on.

College tomarrow.

Look at it this way, RN: How much more PO'ed would you be if you just unloaded on the -5.5 spread? 'Tis what it is.

 
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We did it Doc! Jfc that end was stupid.

Pretty sure that was iguodalas 1st career time hitting both free throws, +\-

 
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it's going to be one of these nights in the UFC tomorrow:

Makdessi -150 1.5 units

Catone +150 unit .66

Bagautinov -120

I like Overeem a ton too, but that damn line is -400 right now. that sucks. i think i grabbed one or 2 others but i'm sleepy and don't remember off the top of my head

 
Lakers were in their second game back from a 7-game road trip. Here is a list of teams and the dates they play their second game back from 5+ game road trips for the rest of the season, so mark your calendars - starting tomorrow night with the Pacers - who should be overvalued by the way the Nets looked tonight:

Code: 
1-Feb-14	Pacers12-Feb-14	Raptors13-Feb-14	Bulls27-Feb-14	Heat4-Mar-14	Rockets5-Mar-14	Nets7-Mar-14	Timberwolves9-Mar-14	Pelicans9-Mar-14	Warriors12-Mar-14	Jazz15-Mar-14	Hawks18-Mar-14	Trailblazers19-Mar-14	Nuggets21-Mar-14	Kings4-Apr-14	Knicks6-Apr-14	Clippers
 
Raider Nation said:
Nobody knows anything about this Omaha crap.

SB has o27.5 at -140

Bovada has u28.5 at -140
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looks like he'll say Omaha 28 times. will be nuts if he says it 28 times. Peyton should tell those charities offering money for his Omaha calls what he'll aim for and they could put all their money on the wager

 
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SHARPS REPORT - SUPER BOWL EDITION .... omg omg omg omg omg!!!

It can be very difficult to pin down exactly what the sharps are betting in the Super Bowl each year because Wise Guy action is dwarfed by public action in raw dollars. Plus, given the tendency of sharps to fade the squares (the public), Wise Guy money often saves one last salvo for the game day hours leading right up to the Super Bowl.

We’ve talked with multiple sources on both sides of the line repeatedly since the matchup of Seattle vs. Denver was locked way back on Championship Sunday. Here’s what we’re confident of at publication time…

SUNDAY 6:30 P.M. ET: SEATTLE VS. DENVER

Sharps preferring Denver have already bet. They got in early when the first numbers went up around pick-em. Those who were very confident of Denver beating New England in the AFC Championship game were betting “the AFC” as an underdog vs. “the NFC” in early-bird options even before Championship Sunday.

Those who like Denver, are in at:

Denver pick-em

Denver -1

Denver -1.5

Now, the market price did move all the way to -2 and -2.5. The later moves were generated mostly by public action. Squares love betting on Peyton Manning. And, Denver looked more impressive offensively in its championship matchup than Seattle did. Anybody who wanted Denver (even squares) knew they wanted to get their money in under a field goal.

Those who like Seattle haven’t bet yet!

Obviously, if you think the underdog is the right side in a game that’s going to have extremely heavy betting action on the favorite, you wait for as long as you can to see what kind of price you can get. We’re hearing from a variety of insiders that Seattle money would come in HUGE at +3. Sportsbooks know this, and are hesitant to test the key number unless they’re sure more square money is coming in through the weekend at a price that high.

Will Seattle money settle for +2.5? If they must, they will. While +3 is obviously much better percentage-wise because any 3-point scoreboard los would be a push…sharps who like Seattle had a grading themselves near pick-em. A line of +2.5 and +2 still offers some value.

You’re been hearing reports from Las Vegas for several days that the market has been very one-sided with Denver action. Just remember this is NATURAL! There’s been no reason for Seattle money to bet yet.

What will happen over the weekend? The best guess from insiders is that squares will stick with Denver at -2.5, and probably -3. But, the market would be flooded with Seattle money at +3. Each sportsbook must decide what kind of exposure they want on the game. Do they want to take a position against the public and root for Seattle with the 11/10 in their favor? Or, do they want to create a potential headache on the key number of three where a push would pay off early Denver betters but refund everybody who bet over the weekend?

We haven’t talked about the weather yet. Sharps generally think bad weather helps Seattle, while calm, clear conditions help Denver. This will be part of the mix as well. Should weather be an issue Sunday evening, sharps may come in much stronger on +2.5 of +2 than they otherwise would have. And, they’d definitely be looking to play two-team teasers with Seattle +8 or +8.5 and the Under. You longtime readers know that the Wise Guys like playing teasers when the six-point move crosses both the 3 and the 7 in one fell swoop.

Speaking of the total, sharps haven’t been interested in getting involved early at all because weather could be such a big factor. The number as we put this report together is hopping between 47 and 47.5. We understand that the quants made the game 46…but are waiting to see if they can get a 48 before hitting the Under. They know the public likes betting Overs in Super Bowls. If the weather forecast is confirmed for wind and/or precipitation, quants and other sharps would hit the Under at 46 or more…and possibly even at 45 if the conditions look to be extreme.

If conditions are calm and manageable, quants will hope for that 48 and will take the Under if they see it.
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SI.com

Prop Bets

Bobby Wagner UNDER 10.5 total tackles (-110). Only six defenders have amassed 11 or more tackles against the Broncos through 18 games this season. Three of those players — Dallas’ Barry Church, New England’s Duron Harmon and Oakland’s Charles Woodson — play the safety position, while Philadelphia’s DeMeco Ryans and Washington’s Perry Riley play inside linebacker in a 3-4 system. That leaves Dallas’ Sean Lee as the lone 4-3 middle linebacker — the position Wagner plays — to record 11 or more tackles against the Broncos this season.

In addition, each of those six aforementioned performances came in a contest where Denver scored at least 34 points and ran a minimum of 71 plays. I don’t see the Broncos hitting either benchmark on Sunday. As for Wagner, the second-year linebacker has racked up 11 or more tackles just eight times in 34 career games (23.5 percent). Four of those outings came during Wagner’s 16 starts this season, but take note that all four occurred within the confines of CenturyLink Field.

Doug Baldwin OVER 39.5 receiving yards (-110). Yeah, Percy Harvin is expected to play. But I’m not banking on a high-target effort from a guy who has appeared in just under two full games this season. Harvin will get some looks, but he’ll function mainly as a decoy, which should open up the field for Baldwin to make some plays. Two weeks removed from a six-catch, 106-yard effort against the San Francisco 49ers, Baldwin has played an integral, yet unappreciated, role in Seattle’s Super Bowl run, with 10 of his 18 outings going for 40 receiving yards or more. One big play — like the one we saw against the Niners two weeks ago — and this one is a wrap.

Russell Wilson OVER 30.5 rushing yards (-110). In the biggest game of his young life, I fully expect Wilson to leave everything he’s got on the MetLife Stadium field. I also anticipate two things that will help us cash in on this prop: First, offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell will call a few designed running plays for Wilson. Second, I believe early game jitters could play a factor, meaning instead of trying to thread the needle down the field, Wilson opts to pick up some yardage with his feet. Russ hasn’t hit this mark since Seattle’s Week 16 home loss to Arizona, but I feel he’ll be more inclined to run Sunday against Denver’s suspect defense.

Archie Manning will be shown OVER 1 TIME on TV, excluding halftime (-175). I wouldn’t be surprised if we hit the over on that in the first quarter alone. The Super Bowl is storyline hell. Expect to see the Manning family quite a bit, especially with the recent news of the lawsuit leveled against Eli Manning.

No team will get three straight scores (+155). You’ve got the No. 1 offense against the No. 1 defense, not only of this year, but of recent NFL history. This is about as even as a matchup as you could expect, featuring cerebral, talented quarterbacks and experienced coaches. Neither team is getting boatraced here.

Manning says “Omaha” UNDER 27.5 times, excluding replays (-155). Manning, you might have heard, is ridiculously smart. And he thinks his offensive coordinator, Adam Gase, is even smarter. After all the attention that’s been given to “Omaha” over the last few weeks, in perhaps his last crack at a Super Bowl, do you think he’s going to make it easy on the Seahawks defense? Perhaps Manning and Gase will use it as a dummy call in attempt to use reverse psychology against Seattle, but if they do it’ll be sparingly. The Broncos have averaged 52 offensive plays a game in the playoffs, so if you take the over you’re counting on more than half of those plays getting the “Omaha” treatment, and you’re counting on the FOX mics to pick up every single one. I’m not buying it.

:)

 
Got the a buddy who knows his college hoops who went 13-0 last Saturday on sides. He sends then to me Saturday mornings and I verified. I wouldn't say he's necessarily +ev but he's definitely on fire right now

Anyway, he likes Zona and Cuse.

 
Sam F. Davis Stakes (9th at Tampa Bay Downs)

2-4-6 Exacta Box (Noble Cornerstone - Vincermos - Asserting Bear)

And for the heck of it in the 10th race

3-4-6 Exacta Box

 
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