Frostillicus
Footballguy
Jefferson over 7.5 rebs
Smart over 4.5 assists
Smart over 4.5 assists
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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (8 Viewers)
- Thread starter John Bender
- Start date
TheGooRoo
Footballguy
I haven't spent 1 second researching this Omaha thing, but doesn't he normally say it more than once when he uses it? ie, "red 27.....Omaha..Omaha..set".SI.com
Prop Bets
Manning says “Omaha” UNDER 27.5 times, excluding replays (-155). Manning, you might have heard, is ridiculously smart. And he thinks his offensive coordinator, Adam Gase, is even smarter. After all the attention that’s been given to “Omaha” over the last few weeks, in perhaps his last crack at a Super Bowl, do you think he’s going to make it easy on the Seahawks defense? Perhaps Manning and Gase will use it as a dummy call in attempt to use reverse psychology against Seattle, but if they do it’ll be sparingly. The Broncos have averaged 52 offensive plays a game in the playoffs, so if you take the over you’re counting on more than half of those plays getting the “Omaha” treatment, and you’re counting on the FOX mics to pick up every single one. I’m not buying it.
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Y'all know I love Prediction machine. Here's an interview with him on prop bets including:
Bruno Mars first song
Bruno Mars hat
Gold Medals vs. Denver points
Manning vs. Elway
Omaha (he projects 32.5)
tons of other actual FB bets
http://cleveland.cbslocal.com/2014/01/30/super-bowl-over-unders-predictions-with-paul-bessire/
Bruno Mars first song
Bruno Mars hat
Gold Medals vs. Denver points
Manning vs. Elway
Omaha (he projects 32.5)
tons of other actual FB bets
http://cleveland.cbslocal.com/2014/01/30/super-bowl-over-unders-predictions-with-paul-bessire/
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ChainsawU
Footballguy
Despite the Nets' 1H performance they scored 60 in the 2H and only came one point shy of hitting their full game team total - and they had to fly to Indy last night. Realistically they only play the Thunder about twice a year. They are 3-8 SU (.273) and 4-7 ATS (.364) against the the Thunder since they established in 2008, and they already beat them in OKC four weeks ago. Versus the rest of the West, the Nets are 45-89 SU (.336) and 62-70-2 ATS (.470) since 2008.
The Nets and Pacers are both Eastern Conference teams, though. The Nets went 3-0 SU and ATS against them in 2012, but are 0-3 SU and ATS against them this season - tonight is their last regular season meeting. Since 2011 the Nets are 10-14 SU (.417) and 15-9 ATS (.625) away versus the Central Division (2-3 SU and 4-1 ATS at Indiana against an average line of 9.0).
Before the L2 games, the Nets had won 10 of their last 11 (8-2-1 ATS), and are 4-1 SU and ATS on the road L5. The Pacers are in the fade spot in their second game back from a road trip, and the Nets just got some added value ATS after last night.
The Nets and Pacers are both Eastern Conference teams, though. The Nets went 3-0 SU and ATS against them in 2012, but are 0-3 SU and ATS against them this season - tonight is their last regular season meeting. Since 2011 the Nets are 10-14 SU (.417) and 15-9 ATS (.625) away versus the Central Division (2-3 SU and 4-1 ATS at Indiana against an average line of 9.0).
Before the L2 games, the Nets had won 10 of their last 11 (8-2-1 ATS), and are 4-1 SU and ATS on the road L5. The Pacers are in the fade spot in their second game back from a road trip, and the Nets just got some added value ATS after last night.
mquinnjr
Footballguy
JaxBill
Footballguy
Frostillicus
Footballguy
Wiggins u 7.5, embiid u 13.5 and 8.5
Billy Bats
Footballguy
He almost always uses it singularly, "Omaha...set" then the ball is snapped.I haven't spent 1 second researching this Omaha thing, but doesn't he normally say it more than once when he uses it? ie, "red 27.....Omaha..Omaha..set".SI.com
Prop Bets
Manning says Omaha UNDER 27.5 times, excluding replays (-155). Manning, you might have heard, is ridiculously smart. And he thinks his offensive coordinator, Adam Gase, is even smarter. After all the attention thats been given to Omaha over the last few weeks, in perhaps his last crack at a Super Bowl, do you think hes going to make it easy on the Seahawks defense? Perhaps Manning and Gase will use it as a dummy call in attempt to use reverse psychology against Seattle, but if they do itll be sparingly. The Broncos have averaged 52 offensive plays a game in the playoffs, so if you take the over youre counting on more than half of those plays getting the Omaha treatment, and youre counting on the FOX mics to pick up every single one. Im not buying it.
http://www.denverbroncos.com/multimedia/videos/Peyton-and-Omaha/00f841a2-12cf-4942-9289-e04476408e24
You may be thinking of "hurry hurry".
ChainsawU
Footballguy
"It's the only line that we make for the entire year that is geared towards the betting public."
Frostillicus
Footballguy
Colorado, LSU, Syracuse.
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
In on cuse!
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
man I made a lot of random bets last night 
It's funny (abnormal) that there has only been one defensive special teams score all postseason - Colts safety vs NE. Hopefully you are due
got_nugs
Footballguy
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
Is Desjardins starting for Tampa? Montreal is a tough venue for your first NHL game as a goalie.
Billy Bats
Footballguy
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
got_nugs
Footballguy
got_nugs
Footballguy
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
So after doing a few hours of research last night, I decided not to wait for 48.5, out of fear that the +3 on Seattle would disappear. Most of the articles I read which interviewed sportsbook managers said the game has ZERO chance of getting to 3.5, so that means the line could only move against me. Getting +9.5 instead of +10 would be far more disastrous than having to "settle" for u55 instead of u55.5.
Anyhoo, I went to put in SEA +10 and u55 at Bovada.... $1,300 to win $1,000. I get a message that says $650/$500 is the limit. So I put that in. No problem, I'll give them a call and get approval to double the bet. Pleasant-sounding Sandy informs me that the sportsbook manager has decided that $500 is the limit.
"It's the friggin SUPER BOWL," I point out. "Are you guys ham 'n eggers, or what?"
"I'm sorry sir, that's what he said."
"Well if either line moves, I can put it in for another $500, right?"
"Please hold, sir......
.....
.....
"I'm sorry, no. $500 is the limit."
Embarrassing.
Anyhoo, I went to put in SEA +10 and u55 at Bovada.... $1,300 to win $1,000. I get a message that says $650/$500 is the limit. So I put that in. No problem, I'll give them a call and get approval to double the bet. Pleasant-sounding Sandy informs me that the sportsbook manager has decided that $500 is the limit.
"It's the friggin SUPER BOWL," I point out. "Are you guys ham 'n eggers, or what?"
"I'm sorry sir, that's what he said."
"Well if either line moves, I can put it in for another $500, right?"
"Please hold, sir......
.....
.....
"I'm sorry, no. $500 is the limit."
Embarrassing.
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
got_nugs
Footballguy
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
jamil
Footballguy
Angry Beavers
Footballguy
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Oops. I deleted that last post. I didn't realize Craft finally showed up. 
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
WHEW!
:frosty five:
:frosty five:
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Rude/Doc/anyone.... if you could take one big NHL chalk today, which of these do you like the best?
Colorado -225 vs. Buffalo
L.A. -170 vs. Philly
St.L -220 vs. Nashville
Anaheim -200 vs. Dallas
All of the favorites are at home.
Colorado -225 vs. Buffalo
L.A. -170 vs. Philly
St.L -220 vs. Nashville
Anaheim -200 vs. Dallas
All of the favorites are at home.
I can't play this for more than $3 but the Avalanche O30.5 SOG (-120) at SB is a pretty strong bet.
Sabres are giving up 36.2 shots on goal per road game this year. Opponents have gone over that number in 18 of 23 games.
Avalanche are averaging 31.5 shots on goal per home game this year. They've gone over the number in 17 of 28 games.
FWIW, Bovada has Ryan Miller saves set at the same exact number and a shutout is pretty unlikely. I think I'll be on the over for a little but don't love it as much as the SOG bet obviously.
Flyers U28.5 SOG (-135) is pretty solid too. Kings opponents have only gone over that number in 3 of 27 home games this year. Save prop for Quick is set at 24.5. Don't think that's a play either way for me.
Sabres are giving up 36.2 shots on goal per road game this year. Opponents have gone over that number in 18 of 23 games.
Avalanche are averaging 31.5 shots on goal per home game this year. They've gone over the number in 17 of 28 games.
FWIW, Bovada has Ryan Miller saves set at the same exact number and a shutout is pretty unlikely. I think I'll be on the over for a little but don't love it as much as the SOG bet obviously.
Flyers U28.5 SOG (-135) is pretty solid too. Kings opponents have only gone over that number in 3 of 27 home games this year. Save prop for Quick is set at 24.5. Don't think that's a play either way for me.
I think Ryan Miller is 8-3-3 (2.09, .938) in his last 14 games so I wouldn't take the Avs at that price.
I like LA. They are in a slump but have still beaten some good teams recently and are usually good at home. Meanwhile, Mason is giving up 3.3 goals/game in January.
Blues and Preds are both playing 2nd of B2B games but I think the Preds might be playing a little better right now.
Anaheim at home is always a good play but I think Dallas can win that one.
Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
Tailing these today
Cuse
Arizona
Akron
LSU
Illinois St
Cuse
Arizona
Akron
LSU
Illinois St
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Thanks Rude.
Man In The Box
Footballguy
What percentage would you give on Denver winning and Manning not winning MVP? Less than 5%?
Got to be higher than that. Lot of options in that offense.
Man In The Box
Footballguy
You're probably right. I'm thinking if he struggles and they win, maybe Moreno or a defensive player that has a pick 6 or something.
I'm trying to get cute with a hedge without paying -140. I'm out here in just a long sleeve t-shirt and I'm practically sweating. It's supposed to be even nicer tomorrow. Then 20 degrees and snow on Monday.
got_nugs
Footballguy
I somewhat agree with Aaron in that it's more than 5% but also agree with you that Manning is certainly likely the most likely offensive player on Denver to win it.
Check out famous Jameis winning MVP in the Natl Championship game with Mario Edwards, Jr and Timmy Jernigan both played better.
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
Blues/Ducks
I like LA also but Great White North has the Flyers today, and the Kings have scored five goals in their last four games combined.
I almost took the Sabres @ Phoenix the other night, and they won. Hot goalie and young team who doesn't know any better makes a dangerous opponent (although same could be said for the Oil today and they got crushed). I don't like the Av's that much though to be honest.
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
DD
Man In The Box
Footballguy
I think he'd have to play really poorly for him not to win it. I also have a tough time seeing Denver winning without him playing well.
Peyton's numbers in his Super Bowl win weren't great and he won MVP. It's probably not much higher than 5% but I could see a Welker or DT win it if they score a pair of TDs in a close low scoring game. Maybe 10 to 15%?
