FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (4 Viewers)

[davegameplayer]

The kings are 1 1/2 spread everywhere else I would just take them here and the ducks ml off of sportsbook. As far as them having an issue I don't know this is the first instance I have seen the separate books not matching up.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

The kings are 1 1/2 spread everywhere else I would just take them here and the ducks ml off of sportsbook. As far as them having an issue I don't know this is the first instance I have seen the separate books not matching up.

1.5 goals is the puck line. It's standard for all hockey games. Is the .5 spread regulation only? If so, a Kings win in OT means you lose both bets.

As a comparison, 5D has PIT -.5 (regulation only) at +156 tonight and -110 to win the game. Yes OT is +270 there. Rangers -.5 (regulation only) is also +156

 

[Good Posting Judge]

Ah yes, the ol' "Polish Middle."

 

[Tiger Fan]

I'll take a push after those first 2 innings

 

[davegameplayer]

Aaron Yes it is regulation only. If I am to bet it and it does go OT I would become a huge ducks fan on the road in a must win game for them. Just wanted to talk it out and get other more experienced thoughts on the situation.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

Aaron Yes it is regulation only. If I am to bet it and it does go OT I would become a huge ducks fan on the road in a must win game for them. Just wanted to talk it out and get other more experienced thoughts on the situation.

but you're not leaving yourself any opportunity to play for a middle here. I don't see the edge you're playing at all.

Kings win in regulation, you win one bet and lose the other (make 10% ROI)

Ducks win at any point, you win one bet and lose the other (make 10% ROI)

Kings win in OT, you lose both bets. (lose 100%)

What outcome are you hoping for here?

 

[Good Posting Judge]

Using a 3-way vig-free calculator, the no-vig % breaks down to 43.15% Kings, 31.58% Ducks, 25.27% for the tie. Of that 25.27%, if we just apply the two-way game odds to OT (-140/+120), the Kings have a 56.21% chance of winning if it does go to OT. So you can expect the Kings to win in OT about 14.2% of the time.

Which means it probably isn't a good idea to lay 200 to win 20 if you only stand to win 85.8% of the time. Picking up nickels in front of a steamroller, as it were.

Link to 3-way no-vig calc: http://sportsbettingsites.org/betting-tools/no-vig-calculator/3-way/

 

[davegameplayer]

My thinking was if it is all + and I play the two bets If it is a regulation finish I win the +*19 of the ducks or the +*18 of the kings. Only losing in the situation that the judge just posted above. However if the ducks win in overtime wouldn't it be a 220 net positive using your example since the puck line is a push rather than just the small change out in front of the steam roller. The math definitely cleared it up a bit; however it seems to me that you are playing for a coin flip in overtime if it even comes to that.

 

[lumpy19]

It sounds like you'd be betting both of those at the same book. Are they gonna have an issue with that?

I wouldn't, it's a bad strategy, book makes money in the long run

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

My thinking was if it is all + and I play the two bets If it is a regulation finish I win the +*19 of the ducks or the +*18 of the kings. Only losing in the situation that the judge just posted above. However if the ducks win in overtime wouldn't it be a 220 net positive using your example since the puck line is a push rather than just the small change out in front of the steam roller. The math definitely cleared it up a bit; however it seems to me that you are playing for a coin flip in overtime if it even comes to that.

there's no push if the Kings -.5 bet is regulation only. at the end of regulation if the game is tied, that bet is a loser no matter what happens in OT.

bet $100 to win $120 on Kings -.5 (regulation only)

bet $100 to win $120 on Ducks ML

possible outcomes:

No OT:

Kings win: win $120/lose $100 = net $20

Ducks win: win $120/lose $100 = net $20

OT:

Ducks win: win $120/lose $100 = net $20

Kings win: lose $100/lose $100 = net -$200

you're risking $200 to win $20. not worth it IMO.

 

[ChainsawU]

This seems like an excellent idea to make money. It's just like baseball where you can get in, get your loot, and get out.

 

[Good Posting Judge]

American hero Brad Guzan keeping Villa level with City after 60 min

 

[Whomper]

I play through 2 local guys. One puts team totals out a lot earlier than the other. I see the Rangers @ 4.5. At first glance I like the over . Im hoping the other site comes out at 4. The Line ups arent up yet for this game as far as I can see so as of now its a lean. If there are no glaring Bats sitting im going to play it

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

American hero Brad Guzan keeping Villa level with City after 60 min

oops, City

 

[Good Posting Judge]

American hero Brad Guzan keeping Villa level with City after 60 min

Woops.

 

[davegameplayer]

there's no push if the Kings -.5 bet is regulation only. at the end of regulation if the game is tied, that bet is a loser no matter what happens in OT.

This is what I was missing. Now i see the light! Thanks for hearing me out

 

[Good Posting Judge]

American hero Brad Guzan keeping Villa level with City after 60 min

Woops.

Think our chances are around 5% on Sunday. Drawing thin.

 

[Dan Lambskin]

there's no push if the Kings -.5 bet is regulation only. at the end of regulation if the game is tied, that bet is a loser no matter what happens in OT.

This is what I was missing. Now i see the light! Thanks for hearing me out

BUY THE HALF POINT!!!!

:SteveStevens:

 

[Dan Lambskin]

oh and can we get some rain in San Diego?

 

[Whomper]

I'm going to play it. Rangers over 4.5

 

[got_nugs]

American hero Brad Guzan keeping Villa level with City after 60 min

Woops.

Think our chances are around 5% on Sunday. Drawing thin.

I heard a rumor about this IDIOT that bet over 3.5 goals, not aware of the monsoon on his handy portable telephone. Then about 10 minutes into the 2nd period this IDIOT doubles down on over 1.5 goals at +170ish, too stubborn to realize the error in his ways.

That IDIOT should learn from being so lucky and never bet soccer again.

But I won't learn a damn thing from this experience.

 

[got_nugs]

I'm going to play it. Rangers over 4.5

Winds blowing in/cross at 20mph worry you at all? Just curious.

 

[Whomper]

I'm going to play it. Rangers over 4.5

Winds blowing in/cross at 20mph worry you at all? Just curious.

I think line drives will generate the wind blowing past De La Rosas head when they light his taters up

 

[got_nugs]

I'm going to play it. Rangers over 4.5

Winds blowing in/cross at 20mph worry you at all? Just curious.

I think line drives will generate the wind blowing past De La Rosas head when they light his taters up

YEAHHHHHHHHHH! MOTIVATIONAL MOTIVATION MOTIVATED!

IN

 

[TheGooRoo]

Johnny Football fade is in play.

o 3.5 +110 50/55

o 4.5 -135 675/500

o 4.5 -135 675/500

o 4.5 -135 270/200

o 5.5 +110 200/220

o 3.5 -140 700/500

o 4.5 +100 500/500

o 4.5 -120 600/500

o 5.5 +210 500/1050

o 5.5 +240 500/1200

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

Johnny Football fade is in play.

o 5.5 +210 500/1050

o 5.5 +240 500/1200

o5.5 is -140 at 5d and +120 at SB.

 

[modogg]

Johnny Football fade is in play.

o 5.5 +210 500/1050

o 5.5 +240 500/1200

o5.5 is -140 at 5d and +120 at SB.

yeah i didn't see it earlier, glad 5dimes has it up now

 

[Tiger Fan]

Johnny Football fade is in play.

o 3.5 +110 50/55

o 4.5 -135 675/500

o 4.5 -135 675/500

o 4.5 -135 270/200

o 5.5 +110 200/220

o 3.5 -140 700/500

o 4.5 +100 500/500

o 4.5 -120 600/500

o 5.5 +210 500/1050

o 5.5 +240 500/1200

Sweet

 

[The Ref]

Johnny Football fade is in play.

o 3.5 +110 50/55

o 4.5 -135 675/500

o 4.5 -135 675/500

o 4.5 -135 270/200

o 5.5 +110 200/220

o 3.5 -140 700/500

o 4.5 +100 500/500

o 4.5 -120 600/500

o 5.5 +210 500/1050

o 5.5 +240 500/1200

Oh yeah?

Future Wager 03/31/14 20:05 ET bet 2.00 to win 20.00 Result: Pending Johnny Manziel - Where Will He Be Drafted in the 2014 NFL Draft Number 20 Overall 1st Round or Later 05/08/14(19:00 ET)+1000

 

[The Ref]

Gilbert Before Dennard -130 is solid.

Beckham before Ebron +110 is good as well.

 

[got_nugs]

Mo! Did you see my question of playing Matt Brown as a 2:1 dog this weekend?

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

Beckham before Ebron +110 is good as well.

this is +140 at 5d

 

[modogg]

Mo! Did you see my question of playing Matt Brown as a 2:1 dog this weekend?

nope, but i already put money on it . it's a good fight, but that number is off in my opinion

 

[got_nugs]

Mo! Did you see my question of playing Matt Brown as a 2:1 dog this weekend?

nope, but i already put money on it . it's a good fight, but that number is off in my opinion

Yeah me too. Thanks bud!

 

[Raider Nation]

I had under 8 in the Philly/Toronto game.

Take a peek at the box score.

 

[Raider Nation]

My last three posted baseball plays have ended in disastrous fashion, so I won't take offense if you fade me.

Yanks/Halos o8.5

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

My last three posted baseball plays have ended in disastrous fashion, so I won't take offense if you fade me.

Yanks/Halos o8.5

That's a Frosty play so we're probably all on it

 

[JaxBill]

Jordan Spieth +2800 to win The Players Championship

 

[Frostillicus]

Jordan Spieth +2800 to win The Players Championship

I like it. Tail.

Also like Donald at 22/1 and Dufner at 66/1.

 

[Raider Nation]

My last three posted baseball plays have ended in disastrous fashion, so I won't take offense if you fade me.

Yanks/Halos o8.5

That's a Frosty play so we're probably all on it

Where do you see that?

SF/PIT u 7

ARI/MIL o 8

SEA/OAK u 7

KC/SD u 6

 

[Frostillicus]

My last three posted baseball plays have ended in disastrous fashion, so I won't take offense if you fade me.

Yanks/Halos o8.5

That's a Frosty play so we're probably all on it

Where do you see that?

SF/PIT u 7

ARI/MIL o 8

SEA/OAK u 7

KC/SD u 6

#### I think I forgot to post my night plays. CHC/CHW over 8 and NYY/LAA over 8.5. Not that it helps anyone now.

 

[Raider Nation]

Yanks with 5 in the top of the 1st. Let's see how we can f--k this one up.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

Sorry. Thought it was posted.

 

[Frostillicus]

Sorry. Thought it was posted.

I guess that was just a super subscriber play.

 

[got_nugs]

over 109 1h was the nuggsy play in this late game, meant to post that, too.

 

[Raider Nation]

New Money Talks tomorrow.

There were two episodes on tonight -- both repeats.

 

[Raider Nation]

Actually, the one on now doesn't look familiar after watching it for a few minutes. But it's not listed as "new" in the program guide. It comes on again at 1am.

 

[LOCO]

Beckham before Ebron +110 is good as well.

this is +140 at 5d

Now -150. Missed it.

 

[LOCO]

Over 108.5

 

[Raider Nation]

Yanks load the bases in the top of the 4th with no outs and Beltran and Tex coming up.

They didn't score (shockingly!). Remember that when we don't hit 9 runs.