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Sort of. I think if Montreal got up 2-0, they'd be in complete lockdown mode. They tried this twice vs the Bruins, once it worked (game 7), adn once it didn't (game 2).Okay, I'm confused. Price is out and the o5 is even money.
Are they expecting the Habs to go to Dean Smith's 4-corners offense to milk the clock?
Over the past week, I finished a baseball model I have been working on to try to quantify different angles I look at.
Using Pinnacle lines, it has produced 151 plays (50 ML, 50 RL, 51 totals) yielding +45u. I understand that with extra vig regular books charge that is realistically more like ~35-37u. Before everyone collectively rolls their eyes, I PMed someone who posts in here my plays yesterday before they started and they went 21-5 +19u (the first five days averaged about +5u per day). If they want to verify, that's up to them. I have only played a few for real cash.
1. I know I'm not that good to beat Vegas that badly
2. The sample size is still EXTREMELY small
3. The correlation between plays is very high. I always take the RL along with the ML (the RL results have actually produced better results than the ML). For example, it had Oakland ML, Oakland RL, and Oakland o7.5 yesterday. That will produce some big swings.
4. It sucks sometimes like projecting overs in all 4 Bal/KC games that went 1-3 and weren't close.
5. Variance will kill me sooner or later. Most big favorites have won so far. It only takes a few of those losses to kill results.
I played these for 1/4u (favorites to win 1/4u, dogs each 1/4u) each on 5d overnight lines:
Angels -205, -1.5 +100, o7.5 -122
Royals -163, -1.5 +125, o8.5 -110
Tigers -101, -1.5 +155, o7.5 -105
Brewers +122, -1.5 +185 at bovada today, no total play
Nats -169, -1.5 +135, o6.5 -105
I won't be surprised when they go 2-12. It has to happen sooner or later.
*edit: yeah, it produces a ####load of plays each night so far.
Why do we presume this? Seems like they knew they were gonna be stuck until the early afternoon, they are probably better rested than I am.
Sounds great! Just emptied the account....if these don't hit-i'll find you.Over the past week, I finished a baseball model I have been working on to try to quantify different angles I look at.
Using Pinnacle lines, it has produced 151 plays (50 ML, 50 RL, 51 totals) yielding +45u. I understand that with extra vig regular books charge that is realistically more like ~35-37u. Before everyone collectively rolls their eyes, I PMed someone who posts in here my plays yesterday before they started and they went 21-5 +19u (the first five days averaged about +5u per day). If they want to verify, that's up to them. I have only played a few for real cash.
1. I know I'm not that good to beat Vegas that badly
2. The sample size is still EXTREMELY small
3. The correlation between plays is very high. I always take the RL along with the ML (the RL results have actually produced better results than the ML). For example, it had Oakland ML, Oakland RL, and Oakland o7.5 yesterday. That will produce some big swings.
4. It sucks sometimes like projecting overs in all 4 Bal/KC games that went 1-3 and weren't close.
5. Variance will kill me sooner or later. Most big favorites have won so far. It only takes a few of those losses to kill results.
I played these for 1/4u (favorites to win 1/4u, dogs each 1/4u) each on 5d overnight lines:
Angels -205, -1.5 +100, o7.5 -122
Royals -163, -1.5 +125, o8.5 -110
Tigers -101, -1.5 +155, o7.5 -105
Brewers +122, -1.5 +185 at bovada today, no total play
Nats -169, -1.5 +135, o6.5 -105
I won't be surprised when they go 2-12. It has to happen sooner or later.
*edit: yeah, it produces a ####load of plays each night so far.
I'm gonna presume it. I've been stuck in airports. Makes you sluggish for a week.
I'm not sure they really minded based on the pics http://www.mlive.com/tigers/index.ssf/2014/05/detroit_tigers_charter_flight.html
Saw, you got an algorithm for plane delays? I know you do, don't hold out on us hoss.
"On June 2, 1988, the Atlanta Braves played the Dodgers and got stuck at LAX for several hours after the game. They lost 11-0 in Pittsburgh the following night. I remember it well because my pops had a hot date with Girl #3."
I guess a lot would depend on what weapons were available, size of arena, etc. as well.
Right
I think it's one of those "first guy to die" type deals, so you'd have to have an over/under on how long it lasts. 7.5 minutes, maybe?
Backtest it and most importantly track it vs closing lines... If you're beating the market it's a winnerOver the past week, I finished a baseball model I have been working on to try to quantify different angles I look at.
Using Pinnacle lines, it has produced 151 plays (50 ML, 50 RL, 51 totals) yielding +45u. I understand that with extra vig regular books charge that is realistically more like ~35-37u. Before everyone collectively rolls their eyes, I PMed someone who posts in here my plays yesterday before they started and they went 21-5 +19u (the first five days averaged about +5u per day). If they want to verify, that's up to them. I have only played a few for real cash.
1. I know I'm not that good to beat Vegas that badly
2. The sample size is still EXTREMELY small
3. The correlation between plays is very high. I always take the RL along with the ML (the RL results have actually produced better results than the ML). For example, it had Oakland ML, Oakland RL, and Oakland o7.5 yesterday. That will produce some big swings.
4. It sucks sometimes like projecting overs in all 4 Bal/KC games that went 1-3 and weren't close.
5. Variance will kill me sooner or later. Most big favorites have won so far. It only takes a few of those losses to kill results.
I played these for 1/4u (favorites to win 1/4u, dogs each 1/4u) each on 5d overnight lines:
Angels -205, -1.5 +100, o7.5 -122
Royals -163, -1.5 +125, o8.5 -110
Tigers -101, -1.5 +155, o7.5 -105
Brewers +122, -1.5 +185 at bovada today, no total play
Nats -169, -1.5 +135, o6.5 -105
I won't be surprised when they go 2-12. It has to happen sooner or later.
*edit: yeah, it produces a ####load of plays each night so far.
Pitched against him in Little league, Junior League and High School. F'er was amazing. Played tennis against him for 4 years and whooped his ### though.
Chris Stroud
Unfortunately, because I import daily stats from a few sites, that's impossible. I just need to keep track of opening/closing lines going forward.Backtest it and most importantly track it vs closing lines... If you're beating the market it's a winnerOver the past week, I finished a baseball model I have been working on to try to quantify different angles I look at.
Using Pinnacle lines, it has produced 151 plays (50 ML, 50 RL, 51 totals) yielding +45u. I understand that with extra vig regular books charge that is realistically more like ~35-37u. Before everyone collectively rolls their eyes, I PMed someone who posts in here my plays yesterday before they started and they went 21-5 +19u (the first five days averaged about +5u per day). If they want to verify, that's up to them. I have only played a few for real cash.
1. I know I'm not that good to beat Vegas that badly
2. The sample size is still EXTREMELY small
3. The correlation between plays is very high. I always take the RL along with the ML (the RL results have actually produced better results than the ML). For example, it had Oakland ML, Oakland RL, and Oakland o7.5 yesterday. That will produce some big swings.
4. It sucks sometimes like projecting overs in all 4 Bal/KC games that went 1-3 and weren't close.
5. Variance will kill me sooner or later. Most big favorites have won so far. It only takes a few of those losses to kill results.
I played these for 1/4u (favorites to win 1/4u, dogs each 1/4u) each on 5d overnight lines:
Angels -205, -1.5 +100, o7.5 -122
Royals -163, -1.5 +125, o8.5 -110
Tigers -101, -1.5 +155, o7.5 -105
Brewers +122, -1.5 +185 at bovada today, no total play
Nats -169, -1.5 +135, o6.5 -105
I won't be surprised when they go 2-12. It has to happen sooner or later.
*edit: yeah, it produces a ####load of plays each night so far.
systems are always good, but never liked ones that had a ton of plays in them every day. Just too hard to keep upOver the past week, I finished a baseball model I have been working on to try to quantify different angles I look at.
Using Pinnacle lines, it has produced 151 plays (50 ML, 50 RL, 51 totals) yielding +45u. I understand that with extra vig regular books charge that is realistically more like ~35-37u. Before everyone collectively rolls their eyes, I PMed someone who posts in here my plays yesterday before they started and they went 21-5 +19u (the first five days averaged about +5u per day). If they want to verify, that's up to them. I have only played a few for real cash.
1. I know I'm not that good to beat Vegas that badly
2. The sample size is still EXTREMELY small
3. The correlation between plays is very high. I always take the RL along with the ML (the RL results have actually produced better results than the ML). For example, it had Oakland ML, Oakland RL, and Oakland o7.5 yesterday. That will produce some big swings.
4. It sucks sometimes like projecting overs in all 4 Bal/KC games that went 1-3 and weren't close.
5. Variance will kill me sooner or later. Most big favorites have won so far. It only takes a few of those losses to kill results.
I played these for 1/4u (favorites to win 1/4u, dogs each 1/4u) each on 5d overnight lines:
Angels -205, -1.5 +100, o7.5 -122
Royals -163, -1.5 +125, o8.5 -110
Tigers -101, -1.5 +155, o7.5 -105
Brewers +122, -1.5 +185 at bovada today, no total play
Nats -169, -1.5 +135, o6.5 -105
I won't be surprised when they go 2-12. It has to happen sooner or later.
*edit: yeah, it produces a ####load of plays each night so far.
Thank God the line finally caught up to this guy. The Angels were more than -200 tonight, which made it too prohibitive to bet. And he is getting crushed at home..... by the ASTROS.IRichards... so f'n filthy.
GET OUT OF THE ####### BASEMENT!
