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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (2 Viewers)

There have been 94 & 115 points in CAL's last two games. Washington State passes for 481 YPG and runs a play every 3 seconds.

Saturday night in Pullman, it will be 62° and clear. And the total is 77?

 
TheGooRoo said:
got_nugs said:
aww ####, I thought it was Goobie himself!

IN on Frosty, question the "respected" portion tho.
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Come on, would the real Goobs tell you to tie 1k up on a qb that he knew was going to be inactive?

My biggest bets are on Stanback o 65' and 67', Asiata o 2' rec, Rodgers u 288' and 290', Lacy o 67'.
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Thanks for this. I was on Lacy under 90.5 r+r and got out of it. Did not see that coming from him last night. Also cashed on Rodgers under but couldn't find the others, I don't even know who Stanback is.

 
swirvenirvin said:
I know Kurt was in a bad accident and was out of commision for a few days. Said it was pretty nasty. That was 2 or more weeks ago though
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Ah ok. I hope he is alright. It's a buddy of mine that was wondering if I knew what was up. He's non fbg so just update here if you hear anything plz.

 
Square teaser for the weekend: Broncos -1, Seahawks -1.5 for 1U.

I know, no hook on the 1. Just take my money if either of these teams lose, Broncos off the bye and Seahawks against...the Skins.

 
Peyton Marino said:
mquinnjr said:
Square teaser for the weekend: Broncos -1, Seahawks -1.5 for 1U.

I know, no hook on the 1. Just take my money if either of these teams lose, Broncos off the bye and Seahawks against...the Skins.
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saw cousin sal on sportscenter this morning talking this one up.
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I just checked on that, his lines were worse, but anything inside a FG is good for my money on this one.

ETA: Saw he liked the Bills too, interesting pick and getting a TD isn't too bad of a call.

 
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Good Posting Judge said:
Considering Shoemaker (if it's close to a pk) and DET/BAL under tomorrow. Full disclosure: I have a massive boner for Shoemaker.
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Nice job on the Royals last night. I had the under, but couldn't pull the trigger on their moneyline. You were right about the price fading Weaver - I was worried their bats would come out flat though.

Taking a look at the games now, hopefully can find some value somewhere.

 
Hard to handicap the orioles player props vs verlander....he's dominated the entire orioles lineup....DOMINATED but he's not the same pitcher this year.

 
What is the difference in price of teasing two teams down to -1/-1.5 instead of just parlaying the ML.

looks like about 55 bucks

 
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I think action junkie is narrowed down to two games for noon Sunday; Balt/Ind or Cle/Tenn. Please recommend some angles on these two games though, because the only stuff that is popping up seems arbitrary. For example, with Tennessee:

Since 2001 home favorites that have lost the previous three games by double-digits are 11-5 SU and 10-6 ATS (avg line -3).

When you break that down by:

Division Matchups: 3-3 SU and ATS (avg line -3.5)

Non-Divisional Matchups: 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS (avg line -2.7)

Sagarin makes the Cle/Tenn game basically a pick'em, but I like the Titans because of the line moving to -2 despite 91% of the cash (at SBR) on Cleveland. Speaking of Cleveland, since 2004, teams coming off a bye lined as the dog <3 are 7-16 ATS (5-7 ATS away).

Also, since 10/29/2006, teams coming off a bye lined as the road dog <3 against a non-divisional opponent are 6-0-0 O/U against an average total of 44. And the Browns are also 3-0 O/U already this season. But all this stuff still seems arbitrary, which is why I need some help.

 
comfortably numb said:
at RB

Team totals

Giants over 3 +115

That means Giants score over 3 runs in the entire game it pays right?

Not have to score 3 off strasburg?
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If they score 3 its a push. They would need to score 4 for a win and yes for the entire game and not just off Stasburg.

 
ChainsawU said:
What is the difference in price of teasing two teams down to -1/-1.5 instead of just parlaying the ML.

looks like about 55 bucks
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It's not always the same. This is also why it sometimes makes sense to tease a -6.5 fave down. ML is a good indicator of how strong the teaser leg is. Sometimes you'll see a -7 with a ML -250(rare)....crappy teaser leg. Much rather have a -7 with a ML of -330. Basic strategy teasers are no brainers.....sometimes push the limits with teaser legs that are -6.5(like SD this week). Actually SD/SF this week are great examples. Both lined at -6.5, SD ML is -300, SF ML is -250

 
swirvenirvin said:
TheGooRoo said:
hagmania said:
hagmania, on 29 Sept 2014 - 3:14 PM, said:
TheGooRoo said:
TheGooRoo, on 29 Sept 2014 - 3:10 PM, said:
lumpy19 said:
lumpy19, on 29 Sept 2014 - 2:21 PM, said:lumpy19, on 29 Sept 2014 - 2:21 PM, said:
swirvenirvin said:
swirvenirvin, on 29 Sept 2014 - 10:23 AM, said:swirvenirvin, on 29 Sept 2014 - 10:23 AM, said:Like the chiefs too got them +3 last night

Lots of plays for tonight

I keep losing on unders on Edelman so I am switching him up.

only one i grabbed from Bovada was Bowe rest are on sportsbook.ag. Think they are all on Bovada just not at the same lines/juice

Edelman over 6.5 -105

Edelman over 72.5 -115

Ridley under 67.5 -115

Brady under 264.5 -115

Bowe under 4 -130

Bowe under 50.5 -115

Fasano under 3 -115

Smith under 222.5 -115
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If tonights game is a shootout we're going to lose a lot of money

Go Def!

u47.5
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Ya gotta read Evan Silva's matchup column at rotoworld Lump. Edelman is going up against trash DB Marcus Cooper. Dink and dunk should give him high volume (and yards), o 6.5 and 72.. Dink and dunk should keep Brady under 264.5. Bowe is up against Revis, u 4 and 50. Kelce is moving into a full time pass catching TE role, at the expense of Fasano, u 3. Patriots lead the league in pass D at 168/game, Smith u 222.5. I think I'm going with NE.
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I feel like I just got a peek at the Ark of the Covenant and my face didn't get melted off.
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Silva is :moneybag: . I respect him and his analysis considerably. Anybody with moderate reading comprehension skills that can translate what Silva says and apply it to posted prop lines can win. Utilize other experts opinions via projections at FBG, fantasypros, fftoday, profootballfocus, etc... Couple these together, 60% isn't all that tough to achieve at all. Tailing is pretty simple too. It's the discipline and money management aspects that are not simple.
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pretty much. I read silvas column, have ESPN insider, Pro Football Focus Gold for WR CB mathcups and grading of the CB's, then fftoday for matchup history a little (mostly only if same division), they also have a nice breakdown of stats against for each team broken down by position.
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I just tried to do this for this Sunday. My head hurts. And that just sucked all the productivity from me today. Sorry work.

 
jamil said:
swirvenirvin said:
TheGooRoo said:
hagmania said:
hagmania, on 29 Sept 2014 - 3:14 PM, said:
TheGooRoo said:
TheGooRoo, on 29 Sept 2014 - 3:10 PM, said:
lumpy19 said:
lumpy19, on 29 Sept 2014 - 2:21 PM, said:lumpy19, on 29 Sept 2014 - 2:21 PM, said:
swirvenirvin said:
swirvenirvin, on 29 Sept 2014 - 10:23 AM, said:swirvenirvin, on 29 Sept 2014 - 10:23 AM, said:Like the chiefs too got them +3 last night

Lots of plays for tonight

I keep losing on unders on Edelman so I am switching him up.

only one i grabbed from Bovada was Bowe rest are on sportsbook.ag. Think they are all on Bovada just not at the same lines/juice

Edelman over 6.5 -105

Edelman over 72.5 -115

Ridley under 67.5 -115

Brady under 264.5 -115

Bowe under 4 -130

Bowe under 50.5 -115

Fasano under 3 -115

Smith under 222.5 -115
Click to expand...
If tonights game is a shootout we're going to lose a lot of money

Go Def!

u47.5
Click to expand...
Ya gotta read Evan Silva's matchup column at rotoworld Lump. Edelman is going up against trash DB Marcus Cooper. Dink and dunk should give him high volume (and yards), o 6.5 and 72.. Dink and dunk should keep Brady under 264.5. Bowe is up against Revis, u 4 and 50. Kelce is moving into a full time pass catching TE role, at the expense of Fasano, u 3. Patriots lead the league in pass D at 168/game, Smith u 222.5. I think I'm going with NE.
Click to expand...
I feel like I just got a peek at the Ark of the Covenant and my face didn't get melted off.
Click to expand...
Silva is :moneybag: . I respect him and his analysis considerably. Anybody with moderate reading comprehension skills that can translate what Silva says and apply it to posted prop lines can win. Utilize other experts opinions via projections at FBG, fantasypros, fftoday, profootballfocus, etc... Couple these together, 60% isn't all that tough to achieve at all. Tailing is pretty simple too. It's the discipline and money management aspects that are not simple.
Click to expand...
pretty much. I read silvas column, have ESPN insider, Pro Football Focus Gold for WR CB mathcups and grading of the CB's, then fftoday for matchup history a little (mostly only if same division), they also have a nice breakdown of stats against for each team broken down by position.
Click to expand...
I just tried to do this for this Sunday. My head hurts. And that just sucked all the productivity from me today. Sorry work.
Click to expand...
takes a couple hours each week but helps make it easier on Sunday morning

Here is somewhat mine looks like for each game is you care to take a look.....

http://ffslickpicks.com/page/Wk-5-breakdown.aspx

 
I think I got one for action junkie Sunday at noon - check it out - Since 1990, when a team is lined as the favorite against a team who shut them out in their previous meeting, the O/U is 11-1-0 when the total is 43 or higher. The O/U is 8-0-0 in that situation when the team that was shut out is playing at home. Guess the game.

 
found these at hrwager, tiny limits but still fun bets

blanco yes hit -175

posey yes hit -200

span yes hit -200

laroche yes hit -175

 
ChainsawU said:
I think I got one for action junkie Sunday at noon - check it out - Since 1990, when a team is lined as the favorite against a team who shut them out in their previous meeting, the O/U is 11-1-0 when the total is 43 or higher. The O/U is 8-0-0 in that situation when the team that was shut out is playing at home. Guess the game.
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Falcons and Giants

 
Treynwreck3 said:
ChainsawU said:
I think I got one for action junkie Sunday at noon - check it out - Since 1990, when a team is lined as the favorite against a team who shut them out in their previous meeting, the O/U is 11-1-0 when the total is 43 or higher. The O/U is 8-0-0 in that situation when the team that was shut out is playing at home. Guess the game.
Click to expand...
Falcons and Giants
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I guessed this and deleted it. Wouldn't the team that was shut out have to be playing at home this week, according to the question?ETA: Nevermind.

 
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