Proposition bets
Peyton Manning completions: 26.0 at Chiefs (O/U -110)
John Parolin says: Peyton Manning has at least 26 completions in six of 11 starts this year, and given the unfortunate news about Berry it's tempting to assume the over. But a high volume of completions has never been Manning's modus operandi in a Broncos-Chiefs game. That's not hyperbole, either -- Manning has faced the Chiefs five times with Denver and never completed more than 24 passes in a game (all Denver wins). This isn't to say he hasn't produced, as he's put up 14 touchdowns and three interceptions with a 91.1 QBR in five games against the Chiefs. It's just that all five went the same way, with Manning never throwing more than 40 passes in a game and averaging an incredibly efficient 9.3 yards per attempt, second most among teams Manning has faced multiple times as a Bronco.
C.J. Anderson had 90 rushing yards in a Week 10 win and 167 rushing yards in a Week 12 win, a formula that's conducive to success against a Chiefs defense allowing a league-worst 5.0 yards per rush this season. Manning is Denver's offense, but Anderson will do enough that Manning simply won't have to complete 26 passes to win -- just like in his previous five meetings with the Chiefs.
The play: Under
Jamaal Charles rush yards: 82.5 vs. Broncos (O/U -110)
Parolin says: Run the ball to keep it away from Peyton Manning. How many times has that been used as the stock key to beating Peyton? The problem with that is how effective Denver's rush defense has been this year. The Broncos are second in the league in yards per rush allowed (3.4) and rushing yards allowed (831), making a sustained rushing attack very difficult for opponents. The three teams to beat Denver this season (Seahawks, Rams and Patriots) have sacrificed efficiency for sheer volume, with all three averaging below 4.0 yards per rush but all rushing at least 25 times. Teams are 3-1 when rushing at least 25 times against Denver (with the Chiefs the only loss) and 0-7 when rushing under 25 times, a chicken-and-egg stat that underscores what the Chiefs will have to at least try to do early on.
So what does this mean for Charles specifically? The average of what Charles has gained this year per rush (5.08) and the Broncos have allowed (3.42) is 4.25 yards per rush. An over means Charles would receive 20 rushes, something three backs did against the Broncos this year --
Tre Mason,
Marshawn Lynch and
Knile Davis after Charles sprained his ankle in the first quarter of Week 2. If Davis reached 22 rushes (for 79 yards), it seems reasonable to expect Charles to get that workload.
The play: Over