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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (4 Viewers)

Raider Nation said:
So I needed a guy in my work league to win so I could sneak into the playoffs though the backdoor if I won (which I did).

For his flex, he left Mason on the bench.... against the Raiders! :wall:

I didn't say anything. I don't set another man's lineup. So now I need a monster night out of CJ for him to win. All aboard the Anderson train, it looks like!!!
Click to expand...
He's looking good. How much you need?

 
Peyton Marino said:
Raider Nation said:
So I needed a guy in my work league to win so I could sneak into the playoffs though the backdoor if I won (which I did).

For his flex, he left Mason on the bench.... against the Raiders! :wall:

I didn't say anything. I don't set another man's lineup. So now I need a monster night out of CJ for him to win. All aboard the Anderson train, it looks like!!!
Click to expand...
He's looking good. How much you need?
Click to expand...
Another 11 or so.

Just noticed that he also sat Maclin and Julio, and played Martavis Bryant. Pretty sure he wanted me out of the playoffs. :lol:

 
Last one..

Sportsbooks like us, posting the wrong odds is very rare. We strive to be as balanced and as accurate but it does happen and we have a policy in place that odds that are obviously due to human error or technical malfunction. This will result to all single wagers be voided and multi-selection wagers will be reduced.

 
RealReactions said:
Well my time here was short lived! Wish I knew about this forum in the start of the season! Lost a boatload on the gb/NE over and by boatload I mean my whole stack :bag: maybe I'll be back for playoffs Goodluck everyone!!! And maybe I won't bet everything on 1 game too.
Click to expand...
If you come back for the playoffs, learn gambling 101, or stock market 101, or anything to do with bankroll management 101. you should never be all in. EVER!!

 
MIA 1H -4 1u

MIA starts fast (2nd highest point differential in first 3 quarters in NFL at 231-137)

NYJ lets folks start fast (2nd highest points allowed in 1H in NFL at 15.8)

Added benefit: don't have to watch the entirety of what is sure to be a terrible game

 
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[icon] said:
MIA 1H -4 1u

MIA starts fast (2nd highest point differential in first 3 quarters in NFL at 231-137)

NYJ lets folks start fast (2nd highest points allowed in 1H in NFL at 15.8)

Added benefit: don't have to watch the entirety of what is sure to be a terrible game
Click to expand...
hmm, i think i like this, will tail along

 
This game ain't for no lame. If you got heart you can play this game. But if your heart ain't right, we got a remedy for that, too.

 
swirvenirvin said:
Peyton Marino said:
swirvenirvin said:
swirvenirvin said:
Peyton Marino said:
Bovada graded my Jared Cook receptions under no action... did he not play?
Click to expand...
I just emailed them on this.. He did he didnt have a catch tho
Click to expand...
WTF? Morons....

[SIZE=small]Hi Swirv,[/SIZE]

Thanks for contacting Bovada Customer Service.
Your wager was settled as no action because even if Jared Cook played in the game, but he didn't make a single reception.

Here is the detail of your wager:

[SIZE=10pt]SETTLED SINGLE[/SIZE][SIZE=10pt] #(No Action) (Placed by Web)[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10pt]Football - NFL Player Props (Prop) Total[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10pt](OAK @ STL) - Total Receptions - Jared Cook (STL)[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10pt](7222/7223) Under 3½ (EVEN)[/SIZE][SIZE=10pt], Sun@1:00p (No Action)[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10pt]Player must play in game for wagers to have action.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=13.3333339691162px]For your reference, click the link below:[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10pt]http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2014113007/2014/REG13/raiders@rams#menu=gameinfo%7CcontentId%3A0ap3000000436267&tab=analyze&analyze=playbyplay[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10pt]We apologize for the confusion this has caused you.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=small]We’re available to help [/SIZE][SIZE=small]24/7 if you need anything else.[/SIZE]

Thanks,

Bovada Customer Service

service@bovada.lv

[SIZE=small]1-888-263-0000[/SIZE]
Click to expand...
Lol, awesome. What makes this even better is they settled the receiving yards under as a win. So are they saying reception unders only count if he records one but no more than 3 receptions? Stupid.
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right im scared to bring that up in case they decide to cancel that one <_<
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Support just emailed me that it was an incorrect line, they meant Kenny Britt.

Riight.

 
Times are tight. A friend of mine walked out of his house and left his wife with six kids. The only way she knew how to make a living was to get out in the streets. After everybody turned her down she finally found this one dude. She said to him, "Honey would you like to have a little fun?" He said, "Damn right I want to have some fun." They got home together and started taking their clothes off. He said, "How much?" She said, "One hundred dollars and I'll give you a trip around the world." He said, "I never gave a girl a hundred dollars in my life. I'll tell you what. I'll give you twenty dollars and you can drop me off in San Diego, whose football team won yesterday despite being lined as the underdog and paid out at over a two-to-one odds ratio." They totally boned after that and it was really nasty.

 
Pretty crazy that the line for this game has gone from 7 to 6.5. has money really come in on the Jets? What am I missing here? I see them not being nearly as bad as they were against the Bills, but the Dolphins have played some really good football lately, especially on the road like their game in Denver. So what element of that Jets team should have Dolphins-backers worried? I see the Jets doing nothing from their passing offense (I forget the stats but Dolphins have been pretty dominant outside of that game against Denver). Their rushing defense has been average, so maybe Ivory and CJ can move the ball a bit, but if the Dolphins get a 2 score lead is their anyway the Jets can stage a comeback?

 
modogg said:
Pretty crazy that the line for this game has gone from 7 to 6.5. has money really come in on the Jets? What am I missing here? I see them not being nearly as bad as they were against the Bills, but the Dolphins have played some really good football lately, especially on the road like their game in Denver. So what element of that Jets team should have Dolphins-backers worried? I see the Jets doing nothing from their passing offense (I forget the stats but Dolphins have been pretty dominant outside of that game against Denver). Their rushing defense has been average, so maybe Ivory and CJ can move the ball a bit, but if the Dolphins get a 2 score lead is their anyway the Jets can stage a comeback?
Click to expand...
all the past numbers points to jets..

The Jets have been a HF in this series for nearly a decade and have gone 4-5 SU and 2-5-2 ATS. They are 11-7-1 as a HU in the way back historical ledger. The Jets are 18-9 ATS as a Divisional dog (1-1 this year), while Miami is just 14-21 ATS as a turf RF. The Jets have always been better ATS in Divisional games. Miami is also 3-15 ATS in MNF road games

 
swirvenirvin said:
modogg said:
Pretty crazy that the line for this game has gone from 7 to 6.5. has money really come in on the Jets? What am I missing here? I see them not being nearly as bad as they were against the Bills, but the Dolphins have played some really good football lately, especially on the road like their game in Denver. So what element of that Jets team should have Dolphins-backers worried? I see the Jets doing nothing from their passing offense (I forget the stats but Dolphins have been pretty dominant outside of that game against Denver). Their rushing defense has been average, so maybe Ivory and CJ can move the ball a bit, but if the Dolphins get a 2 score lead is their anyway the Jets can stage a comeback?
Click to expand...
all the past numbers points to jets..

The Jets have been a HF in this series for nearly a decade and have gone 4-5 SU and 2-5-2 ATS. They are 11-7-1 as a HU in the way back historical ledger. The Jets are 18-9 ATS as a Divisional dog (1-1 this year), while Miami is just 14-21 ATS as a turf RF. The Jets have always been better ATS in Divisional games. Miami is also 3-15 ATS in MNF road games
Click to expand...
I must be the only one who doesn't buy into the significance of what happened between two teams that didn't even contain the same players year(s) ago.

The only things I can see in Jets favor are:

• Underdog to a division rival on their own turf

• Really Bad teams are rarely as bad as they seem. Really Good teams are rarely as good as they seem.

Did losing the starting job inspire or demoralize Geno? IMO Wake will be blowing past Giacomini all night and disrupting Smith.

Since the Bye, Miami has lost to VERY good Packers (home) and Broncos (Road) by 3 each... and a not too shabby Detroit squad (road) by 4. Meanwhile this Jets squad has won a whopping 2 games against the Steelers and Raiders (both at home) by an average of 6 points.... both teams that are significantly worse than Miami in pretty much any ranking you'll find (sagarin, etc).

Of course... as soon as a bet looks like a sure thing, it all comes crashing down :lol:

 
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I'm on these tackle props tonight. Jets crew is very generous (1.33 tackles/opp). Hopefully Geno and the Jets can string some drives together.

2u Jenkins O7.5 (+115)
.75u Harris O6.5 (-105)
.5u Landry O6.5 (EV)

 
[icon] said:
swirvenirvin said:
modogg said:
Pretty crazy that the line for this game has gone from 7 to 6.5. has money really come in on the Jets? What am I missing here? I see them not being nearly as bad as they were against the Bills, but the Dolphins have played some really good football lately, especially on the road like their game in Denver. So what element of that Jets team should have Dolphins-backers worried? I see the Jets doing nothing from their passing offense (I forget the stats but Dolphins have been pretty dominant outside of that game against Denver). Their rushing defense has been average, so maybe Ivory and CJ can move the ball a bit, but if the Dolphins get a 2 score lead is their anyway the Jets can stage a comeback?
Click to expand...
all the past numbers points to jets..

The Jets have been a HF in this series for nearly a decade and have gone 4-5 SU and 2-5-2 ATS. They are 11-7-1 as a HU in the way back historical ledger. The Jets are 18-9 ATS as a Divisional dog (1-1 this year), while Miami is just 14-21 ATS as a turf RF. The Jets have always been better ATS in Divisional games. Miami is also 3-15 ATS in MNF road games
Click to expand...
I must be the only one who doesn't buy into the significance of what happened between two teams that didn't even contain the same players year(s) ago.

The only things I can see in Jets favor are:

• Underdog to a division rival on their own turf

• Really Bad teams are rarely as bad as they seem. Really Good teams are rarely as good as they seem.

Did losing the starting job inspire or demoralize Geno? IMO Wake will be blowing past Giacomini all night and disrupting Smith.

Since the Bye, Miami has lost to VERY good Packers (home) and Broncos (Road) by 3 each... and a not too shabby Detroit squad (road) by 4. Meanwhile this Jets squad has won a whopping 2 games against the Steelers and Raiders (both at home) by an average of 6 points.... both teams that are significantly worse than Miami in pretty much any ranking you'll find (sagarin, etc).

Of course... as soon as a bet looks like a sure thing, it all comes crashing down :lol:
Click to expand...
I can't remember the Detroit game off the top of my head, but i know that Packers game came down to a last second play by Rodgers to win that game. Miami was up going into the 4th going against Denver too i believe. The numbers swirve have are a good reason why the line could be moving in that direction, and it isn't like the Jets were a much better team the last few years. Main reason i am concerned is because my accounts have taken a beating lately, but i have a nice 6-team teaser with Miami -.5 (or maybe -1) as the last leg. i took them -6.5 too.

I just hope that Buffalo game has this team demoralized and not all riled up to come out swinging :scared:

 
Prop bets

Eric Decker receiving yards: 59.5 versus Dolphins (O/U -110)

John Parolin of ESPN Stats & Information says: Setting the prop at 59.5 for a team's top receiver in a Monday night game seems awfully low until the Jets' offense gets involved. Reports in a 12-hour span over Tuesday and Wednesday had Ryan starting both Vick and Smith at quarterback. We know it's Smith now. What does this mean for Decker, who hit at least 60 yards in five of his 10 games this year? Because of the turmoil at quarterback, per-game numbers have to start with a per-quarter approach. Decker averaged 11.9 yards per quarter with Smith at quarterback (47.6 yards per game).

Despite the stellar reputation of the Dolphins pass defense, the top receiver on each Dolphins opponent actually outgained his receiving yards average against all other opponents this year (114 percent of per-game average). Applying that 114 percent to Decker's 47.6 yards-per-game average with Smith under center still leaves Decker short (54.3 yards). That also doesn't factor in how Smith is trending as a passer -- the last we saw of Geno, he was a combined 12-of-20 for 94 yards and three interceptions across two games against the Bills, averaging 4.7 yards per attempt and recording a combined 0.4 Total QBR. This is not the stat line of a quarterback moving in the right direction, even if it was against the league-leading Bills defense (39.9 QBR allowed). As for Miami's defense? A 40.3 QBR allowed, second best in the league.

The play: Under

Ryan Tannehill passing yards: 240.5 at Jets (O/U -110)

Parolin says: Like most of these props, there's a pretty even split between how often Tannehill has gone over and under this year. Tannehill has reached 241 pass yards in five games this year and fallen short in six. But the opponents come into play here -- Tannehill has reached the over against the Bills, Green Bay Packers, Chicago Bears, Oakland Raiders and San Diego Chargers (in Miami), five teams with an average QBR rank of 14th and three that rank outside the top 10. The teams to hold Tannehill to an under were the Bills, Broncos, Detroit Lions, New England Patriots, Kansas City Chiefs and Jacksonville Jaguars, with an average rank of ninth and four of six in the top 10. All of the teams to hold Tannehill to 240 yards or fewer rank in the top 19 in QBR, while Tannehill has averaged 278 yards per game against his two opponents in the bottom 13 in QBR. So where do the Jets rank? Dead last. By a mile. Jets opponents this year have a 79.0 Total QBR, which would rank fourth best in the league as an individual player and just ahead of Tom Brady.

The play: Over

 
swirvenirvin said:
Aaron Rudnicki said:
I'm on these tackle props tonight. Jets crew is very generous (1.33 tackles/opp). Hopefully Geno and the Jets can string some drives together.

2u Jenkins O7.5 (+115)

.75u Harris O6.5 (-105)

.5u Landry O6.5 (EV)
Click to expand...
cameron wake on sportsbetting.ag at 4?
Click to expand...
My lean would be the under since he's had 3 or fewer tackles in all but 1 game this year, and 4-3 defensive ends probably won't benefit too much from an assist-heavy crew.

FBG has him projected for 4.5 tackles and PFF has him projected for 3.5. 3 to 5 feels like his expected range here, but I'm just worried the Jets will be run-heavy all game, and he'll also have a shot at multiple sacks.

 
swirvenirvin said:
Prop bets

Eric Decker receiving yards: 59.5 versus Dolphins (O/U -110)

John Parolin of ESPN Stats & Information says: Setting the prop at 59.5 for a team's top receiver in a Monday night game seems awfully low until the Jets' offense gets involved. Reports in a 12-hour span over Tuesday and Wednesday had Ryan starting both Vick and Smith at quarterback. We know it's Smith now. What does this mean for Decker, who hit at least 60 yards in five of his 10 games this year? Because of the turmoil at quarterback, per-game numbers have to start with a per-quarter approach. Decker averaged 11.9 yards per quarter with Smith at quarterback (47.6 yards per game).

Despite the stellar reputation of the Dolphins pass defense, the top receiver on each Dolphins opponent actually outgained his receiving yards average against all other opponents this year (114 percent of per-game average). Applying that 114 percent to Decker's 47.6 yards-per-game average with Smith under center still leaves Decker short (54.3 yards). That also doesn't factor in how Smith is trending as a passer -- the last we saw of Geno, he was a combined 12-of-20 for 94 yards and three interceptions across two games against the Bills, averaging 4.7 yards per attempt and recording a combined 0.4 Total QBR. This is not the stat line of a quarterback moving in the right direction, even if it was against the league-leading Bills defense (39.9 QBR allowed). As for Miami's defense? A 40.3 QBR allowed, second best in the league.

The play: Under

Ryan Tannehill passing yards: 240.5 at Jets (O/U -110)

Parolin says: Like most of these props, there's a pretty even split between how often Tannehill has gone over and under this year. Tannehill has reached 241 pass yards in five games this year and fallen short in six. But the opponents come into play here -- Tannehill has reached the over against the Bills, Green Bay Packers, Chicago Bears, Oakland Raiders and San Diego Chargers (in Miami), five teams with an average QBR rank of 14th and three that rank outside the top 10. The teams to hold Tannehill to an under were the Bills, Broncos, Detroit Lions, New England Patriots, Kansas City Chiefs and Jacksonville Jaguars, with an average rank of ninth and four of six in the top 10. All of the teams to hold Tannehill to 240 yards or fewer rank in the top 19 in QBR, while Tannehill has averaged 278 yards per game against his two opponents in the bottom 13 in QBR. So where do the Jets rank? Dead last. By a mile. Jets opponents this year have a 79.0 Total QBR, which would rank fourth best in the league as an individual player and just ahead of Tom Brady.

The play: Over
Click to expand...
You endorsing these Swirve, or just posting them?

 
Aaron Rudnicki said:
I'm on these tackle props tonight. Jets crew is very generous (1.33 tackles/opp). Hopefully Geno and the Jets can string some drives together.

2u Jenkins O7.5 (+115)

.75u Harris O6.5 (-105)

.5u Landry O6.5 (EV)
Click to expand...
Aaron Rudnicki said:
I'm on these tackle props tonight. Jets crew is very generous (1.33 tackles/opp). Hopefully Geno and the Jets can string some drives together.

2u Jenkins O7.5 (+115)

.75u Harris O6.5 (-105)

.5u Landry O6.5 (EV)
Click to expand...
rich cimini reported on twitter landry will not be starting, pryor will

 
Tiger Fan said:
swirvenirvin said:
Prop bets

Eric Decker receiving yards: 59.5 versus Dolphins (O/U -110)

John Parolin of ESPN Stats & Information says: Setting the prop at 59.5 for a team's top receiver in a Monday night game seems awfully low until the Jets' offense gets involved. Reports in a 12-hour span over Tuesday and Wednesday had Ryan starting both Vick and Smith at quarterback. We know it's Smith now. What does this mean for Decker, who hit at least 60 yards in five of his 10 games this year? Because of the turmoil at quarterback, per-game numbers have to start with a per-quarter approach. Decker averaged 11.9 yards per quarter with Smith at quarterback (47.6 yards per game).

Despite the stellar reputation of the Dolphins pass defense, the top receiver on each Dolphins opponent actually outgained his receiving yards average against all other opponents this year (114 percent of per-game average). Applying that 114 percent to Decker's 47.6 yards-per-game average with Smith under center still leaves Decker short (54.3 yards). That also doesn't factor in how Smith is trending as a passer -- the last we saw of Geno, he was a combined 12-of-20 for 94 yards and three interceptions across two games against the Bills, averaging 4.7 yards per attempt and recording a combined 0.4 Total QBR. This is not the stat line of a quarterback moving in the right direction, even if it was against the league-leading Bills defense (39.9 QBR allowed). As for Miami's defense? A 40.3 QBR allowed, second best in the league.

The play: Under

Ryan Tannehill passing yards: 240.5 at Jets (O/U -110)

Parolin says: Like most of these props, there's a pretty even split between how often Tannehill has gone over and under this year. Tannehill has reached 241 pass yards in five games this year and fallen short in six. But the opponents come into play here -- Tannehill has reached the over against the Bills, Green Bay Packers, Chicago Bears, Oakland Raiders and San Diego Chargers (in Miami), five teams with an average QBR rank of 14th and three that rank outside the top 10. The teams to hold Tannehill to an under were the Bills, Broncos, Detroit Lions, New England Patriots, Kansas City Chiefs and Jacksonville Jaguars, with an average rank of ninth and four of six in the top 10. All of the teams to hold Tannehill to 240 yards or fewer rank in the top 19 in QBR, while Tannehill has averaged 278 yards per game against his two opponents in the bottom 13 in QBR. So where do the Jets rank? Dead last. By a mile. Jets opponents this year have a 79.0 Total QBR, which would rank fourth best in the league as an individual player and just ahead of Tom Brady.

The play: Over
Click to expand...
You endorsing these Swirve, or just posting them?
Click to expand...
i have just been posting them, they seem to be doing ok on them. I threw a little on tannehill over's. Decker was never around 59.5 but agree with an under if you can get that number.. hes around 52.5 from what I saw.

 
I added to Harris over and went the other way on D.Landry.

2u Jenkins O7.5

1.5u D.Harris O6.5

1u D.Landry U6.5 (this moved quickly after the news broke, to -145 last I checked)

also played .5u on Wake U4 (-135) at SB.ag

also played these on offense for .5u each:

Tannehill -40.5 pass yds vs Geno (-130)

L.Miller O57.5 rush yds (-110)

J.Landry O4.5 rec (-150)

Sims O24.5 rec yds (-105)

 
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