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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (10 Viewers)
- Thread starter John Bender
- Start date
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
Peyton Marino
Footballguy
Breaddie Cakecy coming through in a 'big' way.
Dude is fat.
Dude is fat.
Clorox
Footballguy
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Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
Clorox
Footballguy
lumpy19
Footballguy
Billy Bats
Footballguy
Maybe Matthews will get a DNP?
lumpy19
Footballguy
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Lube up, Em.I took a half point and grabbed Packers -13.5. The nation is going to get to enjoy watching the Packers dismantle another team in the snow... in Lambeau.
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
A lot of good and pretty evenly matched bowl games this year.
By far the worst matchup is South Alabama and Bowling Green, neither of which should be in a bowl. Highest Bowl total I have is the Bahamas Bowl between CMU and WKU on Christmas Eve. Game is at noon ET so RN is gonna have to get up early.
By far the worst matchup is South Alabama and Bowling Green, neither of which should be in a bowl. Highest Bowl total I have is the Bahamas Bowl between CMU and WKU on Christmas Eve. Game is at noon ET so RN is gonna have to get up early.
Billy Bats
Footballguy
lumpy19
Footballguy
No sweat...I was thinking the same thing and remembered this has happened before so I checked espn
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
The under was winning when the game started. 
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
They killed Julio :(
Need him for the semi's next week plus most receiving yards. Rest up you did your job this week
Need him for the semi's next week plus most receiving yards. Rest up you did your job this week
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
sorry for anyone who got Matthews at 5.5. I jumped on 5.0 because I wanted to make sure I got the push at 5. Didn't love 5.5, but he still should have probably gotten there with the way the game went.
Corners both went over their number and Matthews pushed.
Corners both went over their number and Matthews pushed.
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got_nugs
Footballguy
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
So I do all my projections and formula before I ever look at a line.
There are 38 bowl games plus the NCG, and 35 are posted at the Greek.
Of those 35 I was within 3 points in 31 of those games with a standard deviation of 3.5 points. So I have four outliers on the sides (6, 4.5, 7, 6), totals still not posted. I had 12 games within .5 points, and 25 within 2 points of the vegas line. Not sure if that's good or bad. I guess it's good because whatever I am doing is getting close to the actual line, but bad because it's gonna give me less games to have a lean on.
Took me three hours to do all this but now it seems like it was fun.
I'll go back tomorrow and look at all the outliers games again more closely, then look at the borderline games to see if I'm missing something there.
There are 38 bowl games plus the NCG, and 35 are posted at the Greek.
Of those 35 I was within 3 points in 31 of those games with a standard deviation of 3.5 points. So I have four outliers on the sides (6, 4.5, 7, 6), totals still not posted. I had 12 games within .5 points, and 25 within 2 points of the vegas line. Not sure if that's good or bad. I guess it's good because whatever I am doing is getting close to the actual line, but bad because it's gonna give me less games to have a lean on.
Took me three hours to do all this but now it seems like it was fun.
I'll go back tomorrow and look at all the outliers games again more closely, then look at the borderline games to see if I'm missing something there.
Billy Bats
Footballguy
Somehow I got lucky with 4.5 on Clay. Thank$ Rud, fine work as always. 
surprised he was lined at 4.5 in some places. That was a great line.Somehow I got lucky with 4.5 on Clay. Thank$ Rud, fine work as always.
does this GooRoo book people have been talking about offer IDP props?
5d graded Matthews incorrectly as a loss instead of push.
I feel like I have to send them an email once/week to make corrections to these. It's really not that hard to read a box score.
I feel like I have to send them an email once/week to make corrections to these. It's really not that hard to read a box score.
Frostillicus
Footballguy
Expecting Villanova to crush Illinois tomorrow. Line is -4. Second biggest bet of the year so far.
lumpy19
Footballguy
Nosurprised he was lined at 4.5 in some places. That was a great line.does this GooRoo book people have been talking about offer IDP props?Somehow I got lucky with 4.5 on Clay. Thank$ Rud, fine work as always.
Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
Not that I know of, unless I'm looking in the wrong placesurprised he was lined at 4.5 in some places. That was a great line.does this GooRoo book people have been talking about offer IDP props?Somehow I got lucky with 4.5 on Clay. Thank$ Rud, fine work as always.
lumpy19
Footballguy
Out of all the books I've used I've definitely had the most misgraded wagers at 5d. The trade off is that their betting menu is massive, they have odds for everything.
NIU Kicker
Footballguy
I'm liking the over in the Boca Raton Bowl.So I do all my projections and formula before I ever look at a line.
There are 38 bowl games plus the NCG, and 35 are posted at the Greek.
Of those 35 I was within 3 points in 31 of those games with a standard deviation of 3.5 points. So I have four outliers on the sides (6, 4.5, 7, 6), totals still not posted. I had 12 games within .5 points, and 25 within 2 points of the vegas line. Not sure if that's good or bad. I guess it's good because whatever I am doing is getting close to the actual line, but bad because it's gonna give me less games to have a lean on.
Took me three hours to do all this but now it seems like it was fun.
I'll go back tomorrow and look at all the outliers games again more closely, then look at the borderline games to see if I'm missing something there.
mquinnjr
Footballguy
Duct tape
Footballguy
Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
Lost with a score of 133. For reference only 10 teams had a higher game total over the first 13 weeks (3/10 were my squad)
Oh well I've played this game long enough to know that's how it goes sometimes
Blind Tiger
Footballguy
NIU Kicker
Footballguy
So my first pass on bowl season is kind of a system play. The system is take the better Conferance/team for a TD or less. Here is my first pass
Auburn -6 2 Units
Utah -4
SC +1.5
USC -6
LSU -7 -120
Zona -3 -115
Baylor-3 -115
Mizzou -5.5
Florida -7
Auburn -6 2 Units
Utah -4
SC +1.5
USC -6
LSU -7 -120
Zona -3 -115
Baylor-3 -115
Mizzou -5.5
Florida -7
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
modogg
Footballguy
I lost with a score of 168. Next highest score was 130-something. guy I played had the Rams D, Beckham JR., L. Bell, Olson and somebody else who just pee'd all over my team. i'll be bitter about it for at least another week.
ChainsawU
Footballguy
Dogs went 8-4 SU and 10-2 ATS in January this year. It was weird because in 2013 they went 1-11 SU and 1-10-1 ATS.
comfortably numb
Footballguy
This game scares me for some reason.mquinnjr said:
it's at MSG.
On the surface it looks obvious.
#7 vs unranked team and only 4.5 but don't know...just smells weird to me. Illinois is a pretty good team.
Think I might lean on the over as both teams can run the floor.
