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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (10 Viewers)

comfortably numb said:
mquinnjr said:
Frostillicus said:
Expecting Villanova to crush Illinois tomorrow. Line is -4. Second biggest bet of the year so far.
Click to expand...
In to win 1U
Click to expand...
This game scares me for some reason.

it's at MSG.

On the surface it looks obvious.

#7 vs unranked team and only 4.5 but don't know...just smells weird to me. Illinois is a pretty good team.

Think I might lean on the over as both teams can run the floor.
Click to expand...
Opened at -3 and was pushed to -4.5, but only 68% of the money is on Nova so at least it's not completely one sided which, I'd agree, is terrifying.

 
comfortably numb said:
mquinnjr said:
Frostillicus said:
Expecting Villanova to crush Illinois tomorrow. Line is -4. Second biggest bet of the year so far.
Click to expand...
In to win 1U
Click to expand...
This game scares me for some reason.

it's at MSG.

On the surface it looks obvious.

#7 vs unranked team and only 4.5 but don't know...just smells weird to me. Illinois is a pretty good team.

Think I might lean on the over as both teams can run the floor.
Click to expand...
Awwwwww #### I already bet it....why didn't you tell me it smelled weird before I wagered! :rant:

 
Action Junkie NBA Tuesday

The Raps are travelling to play B2B after an overtime game at home. Since last season, teams in that situation are 2-9 SU and ATS (avg line 4.7) and 10-1 to the over. The lone under in that situation also happened to be the lowest lined total of those 11 games - a Cavs/Bulls game in Chicago last season. Coming off the overtime win in that situation, as the Raps are doing tonight, teams went 0-7 SU, 1-6 ATS and 6-1 O/U, losing by an average margin of 10 ±4 points per game (the current line is Cleveland -6). In those 11 games the home team was often also playing in their second game of a B2B (avg rest 0.6 ± 0.8 days), as the Cavs are doing tonight.

In the late game it's no secret that the Kings are without Cousins - who has viral meningitis and has missed their L6 games, and is out "indefinitely" according to the HC. The Kings are 2-4 SU and ATS in those L6 games losing by margins of 8,12,8,9. They beat the Pacers by 1 point in a B2B for the Pacers and beat Utah (0-9 SU L9) last night by 9. That makes the Kings 2-18 SU L20 without Cousins in the lineup, according to the ESPN preview. I watched the game last night holding Kings o101 and 2H u55 and it was pretty much a toss-up all the way through. I would lean over tonight since the Kings are 4-2 O/U without Cousins - the two unders coming last night thanks to Utah, and in a home game versus the Griz who are 7-3 to the under away from home. This just for some action.

Cavs/Lakers 100/115

Raptors/Cavs o206 110/100

 
lumpy19 said:
comfortably numb said:
mquinnjr said:
Frostillicus said:
Expecting Villanova to crush Illinois tomorrow. Line is -4. Second biggest bet of the year so far.
Click to expand...
In to win 1U
Click to expand...
This game scares me for some reason.

it's at MSG.

On the surface it looks obvious.

#7 vs unranked team and only 4.5 but don't know...just smells weird to me. Illinois is a pretty good team.

Think I might lean on the over as both teams can run the floor.
Click to expand...
Awwwwww #### I already bet it....why didn't you tell me it smelled weird before I wagered! :rant:
Click to expand...
lol, i hope i am wrong.

Already up to 5.5

 
ChainsawU said:
Action Junkie NBA Tuesday

The Raps are travelling to play B2B after an overtime game at home. Since last season, teams in that situation are 2-9 SU and ATS (avg line 4.7) and 10-1 to the over. The lone under in that situation also happened to be the lowest lined total of those 11 games - a Cavs/Bulls game in Chicago last season. Coming off the overtime win in that situation, as the Raps are doing tonight, teams went 0-7 SU, 1-6 ATS and 6-1 O/U, losing by an average margin of 10 ±4 points per game (the current line is Cleveland -6). In those 11 games the home team was often also playing in their second game of a B2B (avg rest 0.6 ± 0.8 days), as the Cavs are doing tonight.

In the late game it's no secret that the Kings are without Cousins - who has viral meningitis and has missed their L6 games, and is out "indefinitely" according to the HC. The Kings are 2-4 SU and ATS in those L6 games losing by margins of 8,12,8,9. They beat the Pacers by 1 point in a B2B for the Pacers and beat Utah (0-9 SU L9) last night by 9. That makes the Kings 2-18 SU L20 without Cousins in the lineup, according to the ESPN preview. I watched the game last night holding Kings o101 and 2H u55 and it was pretty much a toss-up all the way through. I would lean over tonight since the Kings are 4-2 O/U without Cousins - the two unders coming last night thanks to Utah, and in a home game versus the Griz who are 7-3 to the under away from home. This just for some action.

Cavs/Lakers 100/115

Raptors/Cavs o206 110/100
Click to expand...
Tailing Raptors/Cavs over. :thumbup:

 
Caught up on season long stuff.

Interesting WR receiving unders are 72-41 the last two weeks. Not sure if coicindence or maybe December teams running the ball more. From what I can tell this is historically a 50% prop, so 63% from two weeks seems high. Will see if it continues.

Here is stuff if anyone wants to mess around and find player/team trends or whatever.

Also 2014 bet% I'm hitting 74% 73-26 on RB rushing unders, and 5 yr of 69% at 121-54.

other good 5 yr / 2014 positive breakdowns:

TE reception unders 5 yr of 67% 34-17 and 2014 11-4 73%

QB completions unders 5 yr 70% 94-40 and 2014 20-10 67%

This is part of the reason why I did the forumula for the units to maximize what my apparent strength is. This week was 37-18 which is good, but ended up +22.25 units due to the better winning % props hitting. If straight betting it would have be closer to 15-16 units.

Crappy stuff is:

TE receiving over 5 yr of 30% at 6-14, and 38% 3-5 in2014

RB rushing over 5 yr 49% 43-44 and 5-5 50% in 2014

http://ffslickpicks.com/page/2014-prop-picks.aspx

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Raider Nation said:
You east coasters enjoying the weather today? Freakin monsoon out here!
Click to expand...
I'm still waiting for the apocalypse. :shrug: must be spotty, Just on and off light rain where I've been all day. Gray, damp and dreary but I was expecting a lot more. Be safe.

 
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Any thoughts on these from Bovada?

NFL COACHING SPECIALS - Will Mike Smith be the head Coach of the Falcons for Game 1 of the 2015 Regular Season?
(This Prop is Closed for Betting)
4:25p
Yes
+250​
​
No
-400​
​

NFL COACHING SPECIALS - Will Tom Coughlin be the head Coach of the Giants for Game 1 of the 2015 Regular Season?
4:25p​
Yes
+150​
​
No
-200​
​

NFL COACHING SPECIALS - Will Jay Gruden be the head Coach of the Redskins for Game 1 of the 2015 Regular Season?
4:25p​
Yes
-300​
​
No
+200​
​

NFL COACHING SPECIALS - Will Marc Trestman be the head Coach of the Bears for Game 1 of the 2015 Regular Season?
4:25p​
Yes
+150​
​
No
-200​
​

NFL COACHING SPECIALS - Will Ron Rivera be the head Coach of the Panthers for Game 1 of the 2015 Regular Season?
4:25p​
Yes
-600​
​
No
+350​
​

NFL COACHING SPECIALS - Will Gus Bradley be the head Coach of the Jaguars for Game 1 of the 2015 Regular Season?
4:25p​
Yes
-120​
​
No
-120​
​

NFL COACHING SPECIALS - Will Ken Whisenhunt be the head Coach of the Titans for Game 1 of the 2015 Regular Season?
4:25p​
Yes
-140​
​
No
EVEN​
​

NFL COACHING SPECIALS - Will Doug Marrone be the head Coach of the Bills for Game 1 of the 2015 Regular Season?
4:25p​
Yes
-160​
​
No
+120​
​

NFL COACHING SPECIALS - Will Joe Philbin be the head Coach of the Dolphins for Game 1 of the 2015 Regular Season?
4:25p​
Yes
+200​
​
No
-300​
​

SPECIAL - Who will be the starting QB for the Jets game 1 of the 2015 Regular Season?
4:25p​
Geno Smith
5/1​
​
Marcus Mariota
6/1​
​
Jameis Winston
9/1​
​
Brian Hoyer
12/1​
​
Michael Vick
12/1​
​
Tim Tebow
33/1​
​
Any other QB
1/2​

 
swirvenirvin said:
Any thoughts on these from Bovada?

NFL COACHING SPECIALS - Will Mike Smith be the head Coach of the Falcons for Game 1 of the 2015 Regular Season?
(This Prop is Closed for Betting)
4:25p
Yes
+250​
​
No
-400​
​
Click to expand...
after the last 2 games i am beginning to think Mike Smith will have a job again next year with the Falcons. they had a lot of injuries on the OL, so he may get another chance, especially if they somehow win the NFC South, which the way the Saints are playing is feasible

 
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My strong likes:

Gruden no

Trestman no

Marrone yes

Eta: of course I don't have something like that offered, really like Gruden at +200. Can ya throw something in for me swirve?! ;)

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Also like Satan Hall +12.5 and TAMU/Baylor u 121.

Also:

Pinkston (nova) u 13p

Gibbs (sh) u 13.5p

Baker (wsu) u 16.5p

Jones (tamu) o 10.5p

Gathers (bay) o 8.5r

Ferrell (ind) u 16.5p

Harrell (ville) o 9.5r

 
mquinnjr said:
NIU Kicker said:
mquinnjr said:
Raider Nation said:
You east coasters enjoying the weather today? Freakin monsoon out here!
Click to expand...
Well, it's not snow.

:tebow:
Click to expand...
Just returned from my walk it was a little cloudy but 72, I didn't see any snow either. What part of the East Coast are you guys on?
Click to expand...
Philly area, think RN is farther north somewhere in the New England area.
Click to expand...
How do you not know where I live? You sent me money in April.

 
Eminence said:
I took a half point and grabbed Packers -13.5. Also picked up a few plays of there being a pick-six or fumble for a touchdown. The nation is going to get to enjoy watching the Packers dismantle another team in the snow... in Lambeau.

:moneybag:
Click to expand...
I'll never forget his last posted play. The Packers dismantled the Falcons by 6.

 
Raider Nation said:
Eminence said:
I took a half point and grabbed Packers -13.5. Also picked up a few plays of there being a pick-six or fumble for a touchdown. The nation is going to get to enjoy watching the Packers dismantle another team in the snow... in Lambeau.

:moneybag:
Click to expand...
I'll never forget his last posted play. The Packers dismantled the Falcons by 6.
Click to expand...
I got fooled on that one too, though i didn't buy any points. Really didn't see the Falcons putting up a fight like that on the road.

there have been 2-3 teams that have probably cost me a good chunk of my losses. I think Atlanta is one of them

 
:thumbup: Damn fine job on the Seton Hall and Nova plays. I didn't hammer the Nova game hard because I got -6 :bag:

Now let's get that Dinosaurs/Cavs over to keep chipping down this stupid RB balance!! We may need to cheer for OT...

 
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