FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (6 Viewers)

[PatsFanCT]

Is Griffin a slam dunk for the slam dunk contest? I'm thinking of dropping a little on DeRozan to make it interesting.

 

[PatsFanCT]

My evening plays.

Alabama -10

Cincinnati -1.5

MichiganSt -3

TexasA&M +115

ColoradoSt 0

UofArizona -3

 

[derek245583]

I would rate my confidence in UC tonight at about an 8/10....

I think they are gonna beat Providence pretty easily.

 

[PatsFanCT]

I would rate my confidence in UC tonight at about an 8/10....I think they are gonna beat Providence pretty easily.

Hmmm, good to know. I may have to up my wager.

 

[Jefferson the Caregiver]

Yet again, Colorado State (+1). Home dog against a team they beat on the road? Guard Tre'von Williams didn't play for UNLV that first game...how much is that worth (12.6 avg)? I've talked about CSU's newfound home court advantage, which is a nice one, FINALLY. What's that worth? On a neutral court, I think this is about a pick. So yeah, I'm shocked they are a dog at home today. This is to go to the dance, basically - the team, who's played great under pressure, could not be more up for this. The Whale will be rockin again tonight, been a long time comin'. A few days ago, I was not too keen on betting this game, in fact I wouldn't have, but I was sure we'd be favored. So I am in pretty big, #### it.

I'm on this as well.

 

[tjnc09]

UNLV 5-27 from the field and only down 5

 

[Jefferson the Caregiver]

One game for me that I like today is Arizona -2.5 over Washington

That sucked. I felt pretty good about it but that many turnovers and Im surprised they even won the game.

 

[derek245583]

I would rate my confidence in UC tonight at about an 8/10....I think they are gonna beat Providence pretty easily.

Hmmm, good to know. I may have to up my wager.

 

[derek245583]

I would rate my confidence in UC tonight at about an 8/10....I think they are gonna beat Providence pretty easily.

Hmmm, good to know. I may have to up my wager.

oof, they are giving it away and cannot buy a call.

 

[PatsFanCT]

I would rate my confidence in UC tonight at about an 8/10....I think they are gonna beat Providence pretty easily.

Hmmm, good to know. I may have to up my wager.

oof, they are giving it away and cannot buy a call.

OTGlad he missed the front end of the free throws.

 

[derek245583]

I would rate my confidence in UC tonight at about an 8/10....I think they are gonna beat Providence pretty easily.

Hmmm, good to know. I may have to up my wager.

oof, they are giving it away and cannot buy a call.

OTGlad he missed the front end of the free throws.

Ok, I think they can hang onto this lead.I got my dancing slippers on!!!

 

[Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll]

Went to the well one time too many, and took some of you down there with me. Sorry, really feel bad about that. And horrible for CSU. Haven't had much to cheer for and emotions got the best of me. I knew better on this game, but got suckered into it with that line. Idiot. The other mistake I made was not hedging off it at half, which was an easy, EASY call. When UNLV made that buzzer beater at half, that was an omen. I'm so beside myself I came home from the bar...can't even be around people right now. Ugh.

 

[PatsFanCT]

Went to the well one time too many, and took some of you down there with me. Sorry, really feel bad about that. And horrible for CSU. Haven't had much to cheer for and emotions got the best of me. I knew better on this game, but got suckered into it with that line. Idiot. The other mistake I made was not hedging off it at half, which was an easy, EASY call. When UNLV made that buzzer beater at half, that was an omen. I'm so beside myself I came home from the bar...can't even be around people right now. Ugh.

Don't sweat it. We're all here for the same reason. Nobody is right all the time, and we know what we're getting into when we bet.

 

[Frostillicus]

Ugh, Michigan State looking like crap, luckily Illinois is too.

 

[derek245583]

Ugh, Michigan State looking like crap, luckily Illinois is too.

I think this is standard for these teams right??

 

[derek245583]

Took Demar Rozen +500 to win the Dunk Contest.

Pretty sure Blake is gonna win, but its worth a shot.

 

[Frostillicus]

Ugh, Michigan State looking like crap, luckily Illinois is too.

I think this is standard for these teams right??

Well, yeah.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Good call on Sparty, Frosty.

 

[Frostillicus]

Good call on Sparty, Frosty.

Thanks. They certainly made it interesting.

 

[Garrett]

For tomorrow: Michigan State -2.5 vs. Illinois. The Illini and Demetri McCamey are pretty much a nightmare right now, and teams that are in nightmare shape don't generally do well going into arenas that typically trend towards a strong home court edge, particularly when your "star" point guard is revealing himself as more and more of a headcase with every game. I also think the Spartans are starting to finally right the ship. This is more of a feel pick with less data that backs it up than the previous few I've posted so fair warning, but I expect Sparty to win by 8-10.

Thank you sir!

 

[PatsFanCT]

Took Demar Rozen +500 to win the Dunk Contest.Pretty sure Blake is gonna win, but its worth a shot.

I did too. He got robbed by Griffin, but what do you expect from the home team.

 

[PatsFanCT]

St. John's +155

Alabama -10

Cincinnati -1.5

MichiganSt -3

TexasA&M +115

ColoradoSt 0

UofArizona -3

Good day for me. Hopefully I can keep it rolling tomorrow.My early plays..

MiamiFlorida 0

Florida -10.5

OhioSt +1

UCLA 0

 

[Frostillicus]

For Tomorrow: Miami PK vs. Clemson. Clemson is the better overall team and on a neutral court I'd take them 10 times out of 10, but per ACC rules this isn't on a neutral court and that makes a world of difference. Miami has been awfully frisky at home in ACC play, beating Virginia, Georgia Tech, and BC while keeping games against Duke, UNC, and Florida State closer than you'd expect (without looking it up I'd almost guarantee they covered all of those). Clemson, on the other hand, has really struggled on the road, at 1-5 in ACC play and 2-6 this season, including losing to NC State by 8 and Virginia by 2, both of whom are far worse than Miami. A 20-point Miami win wouldn't shock me.

 

[Jefferson the Caregiver]

For Tomorrow: Miami PK vs. Clemson. Clemson is the better overall team and on a neutral court I'd take them 10 times out of 10, but per ACC rules this isn't on a neutral court and that makes a world of difference. Miami has been awfully frisky at home in ACC play, beating Virginia, Georgia Tech, and BC while keeping games against Duke, UNC, and Florida State closer than you'd expect (without looking it up I'd almost guarantee they covered all of those). Clemson, on the other hand, has really struggled on the road, at 1-5 in ACC play and 2-6 this season, including losing to NC State by 8 and Virginia by 2, both of whom are far worse than Miami. A 20-point Miami win wouldn't shock me.

MiamiFlorida 0

I am gonna play this with you guys, you are seeing it well right now, keep it going.

 

[The Ref]

For Tomorrow: Miami PK vs. Clemson. Clemson is the better overall team and on a neutral court I'd take them 10 times out of 10, but per ACC rules this isn't on a neutral court and that makes a world of difference. Miami has been awfully frisky at home in ACC play, beating Virginia, Georgia Tech, and BC while keeping games against Duke, UNC, and Florida State closer than you'd expect (without looking it up I'd almost guarantee they covered all of those). Clemson, on the other hand, has really struggled on the road, at 1-5 in ACC play and 2-6 this season, including losing to NC State by 8 and Virginia by 2, both of whom are far worse than Miami. A 20-point Miami win wouldn't shock me.

MiamiFlorida 0

I am gonna play this with you guys, you are seeing it well right now, keep it going.

sorry guys - I'm going to tail as well.

 

[bmj87]

Still feeling great about all of these picks, just cant catch a ####### break. One for today:

1u Binghamton +1

YTD 175-147 54.4% +12.75u

 

[PatsFanCT]

Ohio St -1

Sure, Purdue is good, and even better at home, but the Big Ten is Ohio St, then everybody else. A month ago Ohio State beat this Purdue team by 23 points. They should be able to beat them by a safety on the road.

Ohio State doesn't lose two out of three now, or for the rest of the year. -1 is an absolute steal. I'm going big on this one.

 

[JerseyToughGuys]

Ohio St -1Sure, Purdue is good, and even better at home, but the Big Ten is Ohio St, then everybody else. A month ago Ohio State beat this Purdue team by 23 points. They should be able to beat them by a safety on the road.Ohio State doesn't lose two out of three now, or for the rest of the year. -1 is an absolute steal. I'm going big on this one.

I like the under too (but I always like the under )

 

[derek245583]

Ohio St -1Sure, Purdue is good, and even better at home, but the Big Ten is Ohio St, then everybody else. A month ago Ohio State beat this Purdue team by 23 points. They should be able to beat them by a safety on the road.Ohio State doesn't lose two out of three now, or for the rest of the year. -1 is an absolute steal. I'm going big on this one.

I like the under too (but I always like the under )

I took the buckeyes

 

[Frostillicus]

For Tomorrow: Miami PK vs. Clemson. Clemson is the better overall team and on a neutral court I'd take them 10 times out of 10, but per ACC rules this isn't on a neutral court and that makes a world of difference. Miami has been awfully frisky at home in ACC play, beating Virginia, Georgia Tech, and BC while keeping games against Duke, UNC, and Florida State closer than you'd expect (without looking it up I'd almost guarantee they covered all of those). Clemson, on the other hand, has really struggled on the road, at 1-5 in ACC play and 2-6 this season, including losing to NC State by 8 and Virginia by 2, both of whom are far worse than Miami. A 20-point Miami win wouldn't shock me.

Damn. A couple plays go the other way and this one ends up differently, but I guess that's pretty much the definition of a pick.

 

[Raider Nation]

All-Star game u272.

 

[nittanylion]

Not a 'Nittany Lion' homer play: Penn State lines up well to keep this one close with the Badgers, single digit close. Penn State's 4 Senior starters are really clicking right now, and Talor Battle is on fire. He can set another record this Game (involving Assists - he only needs 6 to achieve it), but that esn't factor much into analyzing the Game. Wisconsin won't lose this one, but Penn State is playing their best basketball of the year at a time when they know that they need to, when even quality losses matter. They have evolved into a tough out no matter the venue, and are finding ways to win regardless of Battle's #'s, which is key to road play, because on the road he can struggle. Playing it safe (again), which involves using only my own twisted logic to feel better about what I'm doing, but I'm buying a point just in case end game foul shots play a role to take this over double digits, but I'm feeling very confident that PSU can keep this one within 10. Wisconsin wins, Penn State covers.

Good Luck!

 

[The Ref]

All-Star game u272.

just came here to see what everyone htought about the total. It's up to 273.5

 

[PatsFanCT]

St. John's +155

Alabama -10

Cincinnati -1.5

MichiganSt -3

TexasA&M +115

ColoradoSt 0

UofArizona -3

Good day for me. Hopefully I can keep it rolling tomorrow.My early plays..

MiamiFlorida 0

Florida -10.5

OhioSt +1

UCLA 0

Damn did I get smacked around today.Chasing with:

Duke -16.5

UCLA -1.5

NBA East -3

 

[PatsFanCT]

All-Star game u272.

just came here to see what everyone htought about the total. It's up to 273.5

I can't win totals, so I stay away, but just looking at the teams, and knowing nobody plays defense, I can see the over hitting. If I was betting it, I'd go over, so under probably is the right call.

 

[tjnc09]

1u Georgia Tech / Duke over 146

GL

 

[Raider Nation]

All-Star game u272.

just came here to see what everyone htought about the total. It's up to 273.5

I can't win totals, so I stay away, but just looking at the teams, and knowing nobody plays defense, I can see the over hitting. If I was betting it, I'd go over, so under probably is the right call.

I haven't researched this in a few days, but I believe 269 points was reached in only 3 of the past 20 NBA All-Star games.

 

[sts911911]

All-Star game u272.

just came here to see what everyone htought about the total. It's up to 273.5

I can't win totals, so I stay away, but just looking at the teams, and knowing nobody plays defense, I can see the over hitting. If I was betting it, I'd go over, so under probably is the right call.

I haven't researched this in a few days, but I believe 269 points was reached in only 3 of the past 20 NBA All-Star games.

http://www.nba.com/history/allstar/allstargame_recaps.htmlLast year went over 269 but from the last 10 years only 3 have gone over 269...

 

[Frostillicus]

Want to know what sucks? When you think you put down on Aaron Baddeley to win the Northern Trust Open at 66-1, and you think you meant to because you specifically checked each book you have an account at to find the best odds. And then you watch the tournament all week and see he's in contention, and then when he's up 2 with just 2 holes to go and you pretty much have the win in the bag you go to check on what the exact amount you're about to win is and it turns out someway, somehow that bet isn't there and you can't blame anybody but yourself because you know damn well you were drinking Wednesday night and probably completely spaced on hitting "confirm" that final time.

FML.

 

[The Ref]

Want to know what sucks? When you think you put down on Aaron Baddeley to win the Northern Trust Open at 66-1, and you think you meant to because you specifically checked each book you have an account at to find the best odds. And then you watch the tournament all week and see he's in contention, and then when he's up 2 with just 2 holes to go and you pretty much have the win in the bag you go to check on what the exact amount you're about to win is and it turns out someway, somehow that bet isn't there and you can't blame anybody but yourself because you know damn well you were drinking Wednesday night and probably completely spaced on hitting "confirm" that final time.FML.

Oooof.

 

[modogg]

Want to know what sucks? When you think you put down on Aaron Baddeley to win the Northern Trust Open at 66-1, and you think you meant to because you specifically checked each book you have an account at to find the best odds. And then you watch the tournament all week and see he's in contention, and then when he's up 2 with just 2 holes to go and you pretty much have the win in the bag you go to check on what the exact amount you're about to win is and it turns out someway, somehow that bet isn't there and you can't blame anybody but yourself because you know damn well you were drinking Wednesday night and probably completely spaced on hitting "confirm" that final time.FML.

pulled a similar move a year ago. You're definitely right, it is a sucky feeling, but it does make a good story. i do hate the bets you don't make, like the example above, rather then the dumb bets you make and lose

 

[Frostillicus]

For tomorrow I love Villanova -3.5 vs. Syracuse. The Cuse have struggled lately since getting out to a 18-0 start going just 4-6 since, and the biggest issue has been a breakdown in their patented 2-3 zone. Specifically, they can't stop good guards who can penetrate the gaps and either score or find open teammates. Their six losses: @ Louisville by 4, vs. Georgetown by 8, @ Marquette by 6, vs. Seton Hall by 22, vs. Villanova by 11, and @ Pitt by 8. Two things should stand out there: 1. All those teams have great guards, and Villanova's are better than everyone on that list except Georgetown, and 2. Villanova already won by 11 in Syracuse. Yes, Nova beat them on the road already by 11 and are now favored by just 3.5. Also, Nova is 13-2 at home this year with their narrowest win by 4.

So to recap:

1. Villanova's style of play is the exact style that's killed Syracuse all year

2. Syracuse is struggling

3. Villanova already beat Syracuse by 11 in Syracuse

4. Outside of their two home losses (to Pitt and Georgetown, two final four types), Villanova has won every home game by at least 4.

Honestly, I'm scared because this one looks too good to me, but I have made my largest wager of the season on Nova -3.5.

 

[The Ref]

All-Star game u272.

just came here to see what everyone htought about the total. It's up to 273.5

I can't win totals, so I stay away, but just looking at the teams, and knowing nobody plays defense, I can see the over hitting. If I was betting it, I'd go over, so under probably is the right call.

I haven't researched this in a few days, but I believe 269 points was reached in only 3 of the past 20 NBA All-Star games.

.0000001% chance this goes under now

 

[Raider Nation]

All-Star game u272.

just came here to see what everyone htought about the total. It's up to 273.5

I can't win totals, so I stay away, but just looking at the teams, and knowing nobody plays defense, I can see the over hitting. If I was betting it, I'd go over, so under probably is the right call.

I haven't researched this in a few days, but I believe 269 points was reached in only 3 of the past 20 NBA All-Star games.

.0000001% chance this goes under now

Thanks. What gave it away... the fact that there are 400 points after 3 quarters?

 

[Jefferson the Caregiver]

For tomorrow I love Villanova -3.5 vs. Syracuse. The Cuse have struggled lately since getting out to a 18-0 start going just 4-6 since, and the biggest issue has been a breakdown in their patented 2-3 zone. Specifically, they can't stop good guards who can penetrate the gaps and either score or find open teammates. Their six losses: @ Louisville by 4, vs. Georgetown by 8, @ Marquette by 6, vs. Seton Hall by 22, vs. Villanova by 11, and @ Pitt by 8. Two things should stand out there: 1. All those teams have great guards, and Villanova's are better than everyone on that list except Georgetown, and 2. Villanova already won by 11 in Syracuse. Yes, Nova beat them on the road already by 11 and are now favored by just 3.5. Also, Nova is 13-2 at home this year with their narrowest win by 4.

So to recap:

1. Villanova's style of play is the exact style that's killed Syracuse all year

2. Syracuse is struggling

3. Villanova already beat Syracuse by 11 in Syracuse

4. Outside of their two home losses (to Pitt and Georgetown, two final four types), Villanova has won every home game by at least 4.

Honestly, I'm scared because this one looks too good to me, but I have made my largest wager of the season on Nova -3.5.

Good writeup, I agree with you. Nova is the better team here, I am convinced of that. I wish we could shave a couple of points off that line, I would feel even better about it but I think I will probably be on it as well.

 

[Frostillicus]

For tomorrow I love Villanova -3.5 vs. Syracuse. The Cuse have struggled lately since getting out to a 18-0 start going just 4-6 since, and the biggest issue has been a breakdown in their patented 2-3 zone. Specifically, they can't stop good guards who can penetrate the gaps and either score or find open teammates. Their six losses: @ Louisville by 4, vs. Georgetown by 8, @ Marquette by 6, vs. Seton Hall by 22, vs. Villanova by 11, and @ Pitt by 8. Two things should stand out there: 1. All those teams have great guards, and Villanova's are better than everyone on that list except Georgetown, and 2. Villanova already won by 11 in Syracuse. Yes, Nova beat them on the road already by 11 and are now favored by just 3.5. Also, Nova is 13-2 at home this year with their narrowest win by 4.

So to recap:

1. Villanova's style of play is the exact style that's killed Syracuse all year

2. Syracuse is struggling

3. Villanova already beat Syracuse by 11 in Syracuse

4. Outside of their two home losses (to Pitt and Georgetown, two final four types), Villanova has won every home game by at least 4.

Honestly, I'm scared because this one looks too good to me, but I have made my largest wager of the season on Nova -3.5.

Good writeup, I agree with you. Nova is the better team here, I am convinced of that. I wish we could shave a couple of points off that line, I would feel even better about it but I think I will probably be on it as well.

Care to add anything, Hoart:

6 User(s) are reading this topic (1 Guests and 0 Anonymous Users)

5 Members: Frostillicus, Jefferson the Caregiver, Hoart Petterson, bmj87, rundave

 

[Jefferson the Caregiver]

Not a 'Nittany Lion' homer play: Penn State lines up well to keep this one close with the Badgers, single digit close. Penn State's 4 Senior starters are really clicking right now, and Talor Battle is on fire. He can set another record this Game (involving Assists - he only needs 6 to achieve it), but that esn't factor much into analyzing the Game. Wisconsin won't lose this one, but Penn State is playing their best basketball of the year at a time when they know that they need to, when even quality losses matter. They have evolved into a tough out no matter the venue, and are finding ways to win regardless of Battle's #'s, which is key to road play, because on the road he can struggle. Playing it safe (again), which involves using only my own twisted logic to feel better about what I'm doing, but I'm buying a point just in case end game foul shots play a role to take this over double digits, but I'm feeling very confident that PSU can keep this one within 10. Wisconsin wins, Penn State covers.Good Luck!

Hope you got a good line here, I saw 11.5 as the line when I last looked. If so, it cashed, nice call.

 

[Hoart Petterson]

For tomorrow I love Villanova -3.5 vs. Syracuse. The Cuse have struggled lately since getting out to a 18-0 start going just 4-6 since, and the biggest issue has been a breakdown in their patented 2-3 zone. Specifically, they can't stop good guards who can penetrate the gaps and either score or find open teammates. Their six losses: @ Louisville by 4, vs. Georgetown by 8, @ Marquette by 6, vs. Seton Hall by 22, vs. Villanova by 11, and @ Pitt by 8. Two things should stand out there: 1. All those teams have great guards, and Villanova's are better than everyone on that list except Georgetown, and 2. Villanova already won by 11 in Syracuse. Yes, Nova beat them on the road already by 11 and are now favored by just 3.5. Also, Nova is 13-2 at home this year with their narrowest win by 4.

So to recap:

1. Villanova's style of play is the exact style that's killed Syracuse all year

2. Syracuse is struggling

3. Villanova already beat Syracuse by 11 in Syracuse

4. Outside of their two home losses (to Pitt and Georgetown, two final four types), Villanova has won every home game by at least 4.

Honestly, I'm scared because this one looks too good to me, but I have made my largest wager of the season on Nova -3.5.

Cuse has struggled for a couple of reasons. First is their chemistry got thrown out of whack after Joseph got hurt. They lose the game he missed (their first loss of the year) and things snowballed a bit from there. They lost confidence, missing a ton of shots. The second reason they've struggled is teams have been shooting lights out from downtown against them. Dagger after dagger after dagger after dagger. Almost comical at times. We need a stop and guys hitting desperation threes as the shot clock winds down. The 1st Nova game, Seton Hall, Marquette, G'town, Louisville, WVU, even Rutgers yesterday, teams just making long range jumper after long range jumper. Sure, some of that has to do with the zone not being as effective as last year, but at some point you gotta miss a shot and it seems like during this run teams just don't miss. A little Boeheim secret is he loves when teams hit early jumpers because he knows he'll extend the zone later in the game and teams just can't hit those shots all night...but recently they have. Nova's been struggling a bit too though. 4-4 since they beat us and barely got by a winless Depaul team yesterday. I know it was a look ahead game, and Cuse scraped by Rutgers. Anyway, when I saw that line i immediately told a fellow Cuse homer how much I like Cuse tomorrow. I never bet against them but I rarely bet them and tomorrow i'm taking them straight up. Keep in mind it's a revenge game too, Nova beat Cuse (that was a good spot for Nova, cuse was out of sorts with Joseph concussion and coming off loss #1, they were ripe to go down that day) in front of the largest home crowd of the season. Jackson and Jardine are both Philly guys as well. Jardine dinged his wrist yesterday but said no way he was missing that game in his hometown. Boeheim been super feisty lately. Guy went ballistic after a call at Louisville. They almost came back and won that game after being dead and buried. Their 2 shooters went something sick like 13-19 from 3 and we still came a possession from winning that game. This game reminds me of the CT game, just feels like they show up tomorrow. I can't really explain it but after watching every Cuse game for about the last 20 years and then seeing this line open under 4, I get the feeling they get it done. People, locals been down on Cuse but I still think they have the talent to make a run. Boeheim pretty much has his typical late season 6 man rotation set now with Fair getting the bulk of time off the bench. OK, I'm rambling now. Anywho, I like Cuse tomorrow. Nova could win by 20 i guess but I felt compelled to respond.

 

[Frostillicus]

For tomorrow I love Villanova -3.5 vs. Syracuse. The Cuse have struggled lately since getting out to a 18-0 start going just 4-6 since, and the biggest issue has been a breakdown in their patented 2-3 zone. Specifically, they can't stop good guards who can penetrate the gaps and either score or find open teammates. Their six losses: @ Louisville by 4, vs. Georgetown by 8, @ Marquette by 6, vs. Seton Hall by 22, vs. Villanova by 11, and @ Pitt by 8. Two things should stand out there: 1. All those teams have great guards, and Villanova's are better than everyone on that list except Georgetown, and 2. Villanova already won by 11 in Syracuse. Yes, Nova beat them on the road already by 11 and are now favored by just 3.5. Also, Nova is 13-2 at home this year with their narrowest win by 4.

So to recap:

1. Villanova's style of play is the exact style that's killed Syracuse all year

2. Syracuse is struggling

3. Villanova already beat Syracuse by 11 in Syracuse

4. Outside of their two home losses (to Pitt and Georgetown, two final four types), Villanova has won every home game by at least 4.

Honestly, I'm scared because this one looks too good to me, but I have made my largest wager of the season on Nova -3.5.

Cuse has struggled for a couple of reasons. First is their chemistry got thrown out of whack after Joseph got hurt. They lose the game he missed (their first loss of the year) and things snowballed a bit from there. They lost confidence, missing a ton of shots. The second reason they've struggled is teams have been shooting lights out from downtown against them. Dagger after dagger after dagger after dagger. Almost comical at times. We need a stop and guys hitting desperation threes as the shot clock winds down. The 1st Nova game, Seton Hall, Marquette, G'town, Louisville, WVU, even Rutgers yesterday, teams just making long range jumper after long range jumper. Sure, some of that has to do with the zone not being as effective as last year, but at some point you gotta miss a shot and it seems like during this run teams just don't miss. A little Boeheim secret is he loves when teams hit early jumpers because he knows he'll extend the zone later in the game and teams just can't hit those shots all night...but recently they have. Nova's been struggling a bit too though. 4-4 since they beat us and barely got by a winless Depaul team yesterday. I know it was a look ahead game, and Cuse scraped by Rutgers. Anyway, when I saw that line i immediately told a fellow Cuse homer how much I like Cuse tomorrow. I never bet against them but I rarely bet them and tomorrow i'm taking them straight up. Keep in mind it's a revenge game too, Nova beat Cuse (that was a good spot for Nova, cuse was out of sorts with Joseph concussion and coming off loss #1, they were ripe to go down that day) in front of the largest home crowd of the season. Jackson and Jardine are both Philly guys as well. Jardine dinged his wrist yesterday but said no way he was missing that game in his hometown. Boeheim been super feisty lately. Guy went ballistic after a call at Louisville. They almost came back and won that game after being dead and buried. Their 2 shooters went something sick like 13-19 from 3 and we still came a possession from winning that game. This game reminds me of the CT game, just feels like they show up tomorrow. I can't really explain it but after watching every Cuse game for about the last 20 years and then seeing this line open under 4, I get the feeling they get it done. People, locals been down on Cuse but I still think they have the talent to make a run. Boeheim pretty much has his typical late season 6 man rotation set now with Fair getting the bulk of time off the bench. OK, I'm rambling now. Anywho, I like Cuse tomorrow. Nova could win by 20 i guess but I felt compelled to respond.

Good to hear, in another post I actually asked you for your thoughts so I'm glad you gave them. I should have waited. I still like Nova, but I would have dialed it back a bit if I had read this first.

 

[Hoart Petterson]

For tomorrow I love Villanova -3.5 vs. Syracuse. The Cuse have struggled lately since getting out to a 18-0 start going just 4-6 since, and the biggest issue has been a breakdown in their patented 2-3 zone. Specifically, they can't stop good guards who can penetrate the gaps and either score or find open teammates. Their six losses: @ Louisville by 4, vs. Georgetown by 8, @ Marquette by 6, vs. Seton Hall by 22, vs. Villanova by 11, and @ Pitt by 8. Two things should stand out there: 1. All those teams have great guards, and Villanova's are better than everyone on that list except Georgetown, and 2. Villanova already won by 11 in Syracuse. Yes, Nova beat them on the road already by 11 and are now favored by just 3.5. Also, Nova is 13-2 at home this year with their narrowest win by 4.

So to recap:

1. Villanova's style of play is the exact style that's killed Syracuse all year

2. Syracuse is struggling

3. Villanova already beat Syracuse by 11 in Syracuse

4. Outside of their two home losses (to Pitt and Georgetown, two final four types), Villanova has won every home game by at least 4.

Honestly, I'm scared because this one looks too good to me, but I have made my largest wager of the season on Nova -3.5.

Cuse has struggled for a couple of reasons. First is their chemistry got thrown out of whack after Joseph got hurt. They lose the game he missed (their first loss of the year) and things snowballed a bit from there. They lost confidence, missing a ton of shots. The second reason they've struggled is teams have been shooting lights out from downtown against them. Dagger after dagger after dagger after dagger. Almost comical at times. We need a stop and guys hitting desperation threes as the shot clock winds down. The 1st Nova game, Seton Hall, Marquette, G'town, Louisville, WVU, even Rutgers yesterday, teams just making long range jumper after long range jumper. Sure, some of that has to do with the zone not being as effective as last year, but at some point you gotta miss a shot and it seems like during this run teams just don't miss. A little Boeheim secret is he loves when teams hit early jumpers because he knows he'll extend the zone later in the game and teams just can't hit those shots all night...but recently they have. Nova's been struggling a bit too though. 4-4 since they beat us and barely got by a winless Depaul team yesterday. I know it was a look ahead game, and Cuse scraped by Rutgers. Anyway, when I saw that line i immediately told a fellow Cuse homer how much I like Cuse tomorrow. I never bet against them but I rarely bet them and tomorrow i'm taking them straight up. Keep in mind it's a revenge game too, Nova beat Cuse (that was a good spot for Nova, cuse was out of sorts with Joseph concussion and coming off loss #1, they were ripe to go down that day) in front of the largest home crowd of the season. Jackson and Jardine are both Philly guys as well. Jardine dinged his wrist yesterday but said no way he was missing that game in his hometown. Boeheim been super feisty lately. Guy went ballistic after a call at Louisville. They almost came back and won that game after being dead and buried. Their 2 shooters went something sick like 13-19 from 3 and we still came a possession from winning that game. This game reminds me of the CT game, just feels like they show up tomorrow. I can't really explain it but after watching every Cuse game for about the last 20 years and then seeing this line open under 4, I get the feeling they get it done. People, locals been down on Cuse but I still think they have the talent to make a run. Boeheim pretty much has his typical late season 6 man rotation set now with Fair getting the bulk of time off the bench. OK, I'm rambling now. Anywho, I like Cuse tomorrow. Nova could win by 20 i guess but I felt compelled to respond.

Good to hear, in another post I actually asked you for your thoughts so I'm glad you gave them. I should have waited. I still like Nova, but I would have dialed it back a bit if I had read this first.

Nova's good and Jay Wright is tough against Boeheim. They could win this game going away. To be honest I haven't watched a ton of Nova games this year, just all the Cuse games. Our 6 losses...none of those losses were really bad losses. Everyone points to the Seton hall game as the official sign that we were in trouble but i watched that Seton Hall game and Seton hall could have beaten the Nuggets that night. They were on fire! There was nothing we could do in that game to stop them. They didn't miss and every time we chipped away at their lead they'd come down and hit a bomb. In our 3 road losses to Pitt, Louisville and Marquette (3 tough, tough places to play) we actually played pretty well, they were getting bombarded in Pitt and Lou and showed a ton of heart almost pulling games out they were dead in. The two other home losses to Nova and Gtown, we didn't look great but Nova and GTown are pretty good teams. We always seem to struggle in the Dome at times. Teams just get super fired up to play in that place. That 1st Nova game was a revenge game for them too, Cuse routed them last year in front of the largest game on campus ever. Your bet is fine though. They could absolutely cover that number and I'm in no way saying you're definitely on the wrong side. Joseph played better saturday so that was encouraging and Scoop hopefully will be Ok with the wrist. I really think CJ Fair will be the difference tomorrow. That kid is going to be a STUD.