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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (1 Viewer)

ChainsawU said:
Just watched the official weigh-ins. First off, I just feel real bad for Josh Burkman, Lombard looks terrifying. I want to do more on four of the fights: Last Call Castillo versus the Felder dude with the dyke haircut; Felder looks like he might be in over his head. Secondly, I'd like to see Cody Brimage whoop Garbrandt. Third, Jury looks a lot smaller than Cerrone so I thought Jury would pay more than just 130. And I also thought Tavares should be paying-out more, currently offered between 110 and 125, depending on where you look. Got an eye on every single fighter, though. Also thought it was funny that you had to pay seven to win one with Horiguchi. I guess it's on tomorrow night. UFC gets me higher than any other sport.
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If you say "Jury should pay more than 130", does that mean I should bet on the other guy?

I checked Rosetta Stone and didn't see Chainsaw.

 
tjnc09 said:
If one of you east coast guys are up and bored any of these nights, can you let me know what time CBB totals become available on BetOnline. I would much appreciate it.
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You can see the line history at anany of the sites that post lines

http://www.bettingtalk.com/odds/lines.php?sport=ncaabb&period=0 click on the game you're interested in and the book and it will give you the line history with timestamps for when the line is posted and when it's moved

 
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gussy said:
Saturday Pucks:

Lots of games tomorrow, not a lot that excites me.

Habs +130

You're going to give me plus money on the team that is probably playing better than anyone right now because Pitt beat TB tonight? I'll take a chance here.
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Good chance it's Tokarski and not Price in net tonight vs Fleury.

 
BRONG said:
Raider Nation said:
BRONG said:
I forget who my favorite player in college football history's name is (this bowl season) but I know his number, it's 91. :banned:
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http://screengrabber.deadspin.com/fat-guys-47-yard-reception-enters-annals-of-legendary-f-1677222879?utm_campaign=socialflow_deadspin_twitter&utm_source=deadspin_twitter&utm_medium=socialflow
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I can't count how many great things went on just there; really, I'll lose count. But my favorite is the end, where he made sure to stay inbounds. :lmao: How many times do we see otherwise? A lot. And they should all know better; it's so easy.

2nd favorite thing was him scrambling for the ball after. Even though he knew he was down. He knew even more to realize that refs and replays can be absolutely ridiculous (and bought). Especially in these scenarios.

Yeah, love that guy. Almost as much as Bradlee Van Pelt. :football:
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#### that ####### guy...I still remember max betting Fresno based on a tip from a buddy and watching that guy shred them

 
Aaron Rudnicki said:
I still need to update my spreadsheets for some data over the last couple weeks, but games tomorrow are at Carolina and Pittsburgh.

I show Carolina as a pretty favorable crew (around 1.2 tackles/opp) and Pittsburgh is about average but still not bad (1.14 tackles/opp).

I guess the difference is Pitt has been top-5 in tackle opportunities/game while Carolina has been in the bottom 3rd. That makes sense since Pittsburgh aired things out and their defense has trouble getting off the field. Carolina runs the ball and shortens the game.

So, a run-heavy team like Carolina going up against an offense like the Cardinals likely means fewer opportunities all around, but I'd still probably take my chances with Kuechly getting to 8.

Tough to figure out Steelers/Ravens without Le'Veon Bell but I'd still probably lean over on both LBs.

FWIW, PFF has these projections

Kuechly: 7.7

Mosley: 10.8

D.Smith: 8.9
Click to expand...
I'm playing Timmons o 7.5.

 
TheGooRoo said:
Aaron Rudnicki said:
I still need to update my spreadsheets for some data over the last couple weeks, but games tomorrow are at Carolina and Pittsburgh.

I show Carolina as a pretty favorable crew (around 1.2 tackles/opp) and Pittsburgh is about average but still not bad (1.14 tackles/opp).

I guess the difference is Pitt has been top-5 in tackle opportunities/game while Carolina has been in the bottom 3rd. That makes sense since Pittsburgh aired things out and their defense has trouble getting off the field. Carolina runs the ball and shortens the game.

So, a run-heavy team like Carolina going up against an offense like the Cardinals likely means fewer opportunities all around, but I'd still probably take my chances with Kuechly getting to 8.

Tough to figure out Steelers/Ravens without Le'Veon Bell but I'd still probably lean over on both LBs.

FWIW, PFF has these projections

Kuechly: 7.7

Mosley: 10.8

D.Smith: 8.9
Click to expand...
I'm playing Timmons o 7.5.
Click to expand...
Bovada has him at 8.5 -130 while SB still has 7.5 -125 right now.

 
regularguy said:
TheGooRoo said:
Aaron Rudnicki said:
I still need to update my spreadsheets for some data over the last couple weeks, but games tomorrow are at Carolina and Pittsburgh.

I show Carolina as a pretty favorable crew (around 1.2 tackles/opp) and Pittsburgh is about average but still not bad (1.14 tackles/opp).

I guess the difference is Pitt has been top-5 in tackle opportunities/game while Carolina has been in the bottom 3rd. That makes sense since Pittsburgh aired things out and their defense has trouble getting off the field. Carolina runs the ball and shortens the game.

So, a run-heavy team like Carolina going up against an offense like the Cardinals likely means fewer opportunities all around, but I'd still probably take my chances with Kuechly getting to 8.

Tough to figure out Steelers/Ravens without Le'Veon Bell but I'd still probably lean over on both LBs.

FWIW, PFF has these projections

Kuechly: 7.7

Mosley: 10.8

D.Smith: 8.9
Click to expand...
I'm playing Timmons o 7.5.
Click to expand...
Bovada has him at 8.5 -130 while SB still has 7.5 -125 right now.
Click to expand...
I would play him at SB. :banned:

 
Full card

Fitzgerald under 55.5 -120

Floyd over 44.5 -115

Newton under 20.5 -115

Newton over 41.5 -115

Olsen over 5 -125

K. Williams over 47.5 -115

Benjamin under 4.5 (E)

Benjamin under 60.5 -120

Olsen -.5 over Benjamin receptions -130

Lindley over 211.5 -115

BAL vs PIT

St. Smith under 70.5 -115

Roethlisberger over 24.5 -130

A. Brown over 7.5 -125

 
IN case anyone wants it

Code: 
RBBet	Unit	 Rush Under	1.9	1.4Rush Over	0.7	0.8Rush+Rec Over	0.7	0.8Rush+Rec Under	1.4	1.2Receptions Over	0.8	0.9Receptions Under	1.7	1.4Receiving Over	0.4	0.7Receiving Under	1.4	1.2WRBet	Unit	 Receptions Over	1.0	1.0Receptions Under	1.2	1.1Receiving Over	1.0	1.0Receiving Under	1.1	1.1QBBet	Unit	 Passing Over	1.1	1.1Passing Under	1.1	1.0Completion Over	0.9	1.0Completion Under	1.6	1.3Rushing Over	0.6	0.8Rushing Under	1.7	1.4TEBet	Unit	 Receptions Over	1.0	1.0Receptions Under	1.3	1.1Receiving Over	0.5	0.8Receiving Under	1.7	1.4
 
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hagmania said:
What are the major differences in capping props between college and pros, if any?
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i just dont have the knowledge for college unless it's the Spartans of course. I'm sure it could be similar in the end (game flow, history, offense vs defense trends per position )but time would always be an issue for me.

 
hagmania said:
What are the major differences in capping props between college and pros, if any?
Click to expand...
Matchups and pace of the game.

If LSU is playing some other SEC team they may not pass 12 times in the whole game. If they are playing Baylor there is a good chance they will drop back 20 plus times.

 
hagmania said:
What are the major differences in capping props between college and pros, if any?
Click to expand...
The concepts of capping are the same, the chief difference is information. In the NFL it is very easy to use something like PFF for wr/cb matchups or read Evan Silva's matchup column to know that player A is an X receiver and he'll primarily be up against player B who covers this side of the field, etc, etc etc. In the NBA it's pretty easy to find information like Sacramento gives up 24.02 ppg to shooting guards, whereas the league avg is 20.87. You're going to want to keep an eye open for SG (such as Wiggins (o 16 pts)) that will give McLemore and Stauskas more than they can handle. Good luck finding detailed matchup information in college sports. When I used to run my prop service it would take me about 30 minutes to come up with an NFL card and 3+ hours to come up with a CFB card. But with the relatively low limits on prop bets, if you want to make real money, you either need to have an arsenal of books, be able to beat more than 1-2 sports (ie NFL and/or NBA), or both.

 
TheGooRoo said:
hagmania said:
What are the major differences in capping props between college and pros, if any?
Click to expand...
The concepts of capping are the same, the chief difference is information. In the NFL it is very easy to use something like PFF for wr/cb matchups or read Evan Silva's matchup column to know that player A is an X receiver and he'll primarily be up against player B who covers this side of the field, etc, etc etc. In the NBA it's pretty easy to find information like Sacramento gives up 24.02 ppg to shooting guards, whereas the league avg is 20.87. You're going to want to keep an eye open for SG (such as Wiggins (o 16 pts)) that will give McLemore and Stauskas more than they can handle. Good luck finding detailed matchup information in college sports. When I used to run my prop service it would take me about 30 minutes to come up with an NFL card and 3+ hours to come up with a CFB card. But with the relatively low limits on prop bets, if you want to make real money, you either need to have an arsenal of books, be able to beat more than 1-2 sports (ie NFL and/or NBA), or both.
Click to expand...
Thanks, I'm a hobbyist right now. But the work was fun imo, so I might start digging deeper.

 
tjnc09 said:
If one of you east coast guys are up and bored any of these nights, can you let me know what time CBB totals become available on BetOnline. I would much appreciate it.
Click to expand...
tj, I saw this the first time you posted it and I'm not sure of the exact time, but my guess is they would be circled anyway. I can't imagine they'd let people hammer CBB totals overnight.

 
tonydead said:
ChainsawU said:
Just watched the official weigh-ins. First off, I just feel real bad for Josh Burkman, Lombard looks terrifying. I want to do more on four of the fights: Last Call Castillo versus the Felder dude with the dyke haircut; Felder looks like he might be in over his head. Secondly, I'd like to see Cody Garbrandt whoop Brimage. Third, Jury looks a lot smaller than Cerrone so I thought Jury would pay more than just 130. And I also thought Tavares should be paying-out more, currently offered between 110 and 125, depending on where you look. Got an eye on every single fighter, though. Also thought it was funny that you had to pay seven to win one with Horiguchi. I guess it's on tomorrow night. UFC gets me higher than any other sport.
Click to expand...
If you say "Jury should pay more than 130", does that mean I should bet on the other guy? I checked Rosetta Stone and didn't see Chainsaw.
Click to expand...
Naw man, I just thought he looked small so should pay more, so he might sneak up on you if you bet the other dude. I don't know but I think Cowboy is the more popular dude that people like to bet on. I know we've made money in here betting him. Just trying to figure out why each dude is favored. I did play C Garbrandt 155 just because I don't like the stupid Dragonball Z Scouter that Brimage wears.

Also played Tavares 110.

 
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BRONG said:
WOW, ECU wins this going away. It's easy to see who wants to play.
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Incentive was the X-factor in this game. Florida's coach is their defensive coordinator, who has already been fired. Wasn't sure if the kids wanted to die for him or be drunk all week. BTW, if you're that coach, how are you not calling flea-flickers and fake punts all day long? WGAF?

 
Raider Nation said:
BRONG said:
WOW, ECU wins this going away. It's easy to see who wants to play.
Click to expand...
Incentive was the X-factor in this game. Florida's coach is their defensive coordinator, who has already been fired. Wasn't sure if the kids wanted to die for him or be drunk all week. BTW, if you're that coach, how are you not calling flea-flickers and fake punts all day long? WGAF?
Click to expand...
I stayed away from most props because I had no idea on motivation between these teams.

 
swirvenirvin said:
Full card

Fitzgerald under 55.5 -120

Floyd over 44.5 -115

Newton under 20.5 -115

Newton over 41.5 -115

Olsen over 5 -125

K. Williams over 47.5 -115

Benjamin under 4.5 (E)

Benjamin under 60.5 -120

Olsen -.5 over Benjamin receptions -130

Lindley over 211.5 -115
Click to expand...
Fitz is 42.5 at BOL. :lol: Let me congratulate you on that one already.

I signed up at BOL and SBetting mainly for these props. Turns out they don't have many of them. :kicksrock:

 
Raider Nation said:
swirvenirvin said:
Full card

Fitzgerald under 55.5 -120

Floyd over 44.5 -115

Newton under 20.5 -115

Newton over 41.5 -115

Olsen over 5 -125

K. Williams over 47.5 -115

Benjamin under 4.5 (E)

Benjamin under 60.5 -120

Olsen -.5 over Benjamin receptions -130

Lindley over 211.5 -115
Click to expand...
Fitz is 42.5 at BOL. :lol: Let me congratulate you on that one already.

I signed up at BOL and SBetting mainly for these props. Turns out they don't have many of them. :kicksrock:
Click to expand...
Best selection is easily bodog. Sbet/BOL doesn't even come close. They do post some very bad (good for us) lines at times. I also haven't gotten cut at Sbet/BOL yet.

 
Raider Nation said:
swirvenirvin said:
Full card

Fitzgerald under 55.5 -120

Floyd over 44.5 -115

Newton under 20.5 -115

Newton over 41.5 -115

Olsen over 5 -125

K. Williams over 47.5 -115

Benjamin under 4.5 (E)

Benjamin under 60.5 -120

Olsen -.5 over Benjamin receptions -130

Lindley over 211.5 -115
Click to expand...
Fitz is 42.5 at BOL. :lol: Let me congratulate you on that one already.

I signed up at BOL and SBetting mainly for these props. Turns out they don't have many of them. :kicksrock:
Click to expand...
sportsbetting.ag has some good lines sometimes but yeah they dont offer a ton like Bovada, sportsbook.ag, and 5dimes

ETA GR ditto....

 
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swirvenirvin said:
Raider Nation said:
swirvenirvin said:
Full card

Fitzgerald under 55.5 -120

Floyd over 44.5 -115

Newton under 20.5 -115

Newton over 41.5 -115

Olsen over 5 -125

K. Williams over 47.5 -115

Benjamin under 4.5 (E)

Benjamin under 60.5 -120

Olsen -.5 over Benjamin receptions -130

Lindley over 211.5 -115
Click to expand...
Fitz is 42.5 at BOL. :lol: Let me congratulate you on that one already.

I signed up at BOL and SBetting mainly for these props. Turns out they don't have many of them. :kicksrock:
Click to expand...
sportsbetting.ag has some good lines sometimes but yeah they dont offer a ton like Bovada, sportsbook.ag, and 5dimesETA GR ditto....
Click to expand...
Sbetting/BOL are good for basketball though. DSI is another good one to have for football.

 
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