FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (7 Viewers)

[swirvenirvin]

SVG COY +5000

Voulgaris is on BS Report today.

Let me know when someone see a Van Gundy for Coach of the Year bet

I suck at quoting, but 1 should be after 2

well yeah I missed all those I need a new one listed!

 

[fantasycurse42]

F it, going Hawaii -4 2nd half here. Has been a bit of a tanker tonight, need my boys from the island to keep it going, did fine considering they got crushed the first 10 minutes of the 1st half

well, i stayed up to watch this play go straight . :X

Had Hawaii, happy I fell asleep.

 

[swirvenirvin]

The year after I moved back to CA from CT, I walked around in shorts all winter. That lasted about a year, now I'm a ##### to the cold again.

Gets very bitter by the bay, huh?

I feel ashamed when I have to wear an actual coat in non-freezing temps. :(

When I went to SD last year for the Rose Bowl it was in the mid 60's and everyone there was wearing winter coats and hats, while we were in shorts/jeans and t-shirts. However #### got cold that night when we were wearing the same stuff at the dump of a stadium Qualcomm. Had to go inside the "bar" area where they had cool 27" tube TVs set up in there.

 

[lumpy19]

I didn't take the 90% to be literal. But is it garbage or something worth keeping an eye on?

It doesn't make any sense to me. There aren't key numbers in basketball. If he specifically said football, I could maybe believe that because you know how important three and seven are - when those start changing, it's something to watch.

But three at half is no different than two or four or 10. It might be something he has gotten lucky at but really has no merit in basketball IMO.

I haven't read the covers thread but there are key numbers in basketball. The numbers are different for CBB and the NBA due to the different late game strategy(NBA players make their foul shots, college kids don't) The numbers aren't as important as say 3 and 7 in football but they are important.

It's been a few years since I looked at the data but I believe the NBA numbers were 3/5/7

No idea what the college numbers are but I'd guess 2/3 are pretty important in college

 

[swirvenirvin]

Anyone have an easy way to get player age in NFL?

Just finished doing the season long Bovada bets and I think there is some correlation to the over unders based on age.

ETA found fftollbox has it and I can do a vlookup off it

 

[Dan Lambskin]

Looks like all of the NFL team pages list it for the whole roster..I guess there'd be a little copy/paste and sorting involved but probably not too intensive

 

[Dan Lambskin]

Or that

 

[got_nugs]

Don't try to outrap E40. (the obligatory bring this damn thread back to page 1 post).

 

[lumpy19]

Don't try to outrap E40. (the obligatory bring this damn thread back to page 1 post).

Going to be a lot of work keeping this on page 1 now that football is over

 

[got_nugs]

Don't try to outrap E40. (the obligatory bring this damn thread back to page 1 post).

Going to be a lot of work keeping this on page 1 now that football is over

I'm skrong if you skrong.

 

[got_nugs]

Sportsbook prop:

Winston over/under draft pick 3.5.

 

[swirvenirvin]

Sportsbook prop:

Winston over/under draft pick 3.5.

would guess under. Cant imagine he does well in interviews.

dunno

 

[lumpy19]

Sportsbook prop:

Winston over/under draft pick 3.5.

OVER for the max, he's not going top 3....jags and oakland just drafted QB's, titans and bucs need a QB but mariota will go first.

 

[got_nugs]

that's what I thought. I'll hold off to get better odds on the under. He'll go #1 overall.

 

[Good Posting Judge]

Don't try to outrap E40. (the obligatory bring this damn thread back to page 1 post).

GB of mine took a photo of himself in the concourse of a GSW game the other night, with 40 lurking in the background. Pretty cool.

 

[lumpy19]

that's what I thought. I'll hold off to get better odds on the under. He'll go #1 overall.

I'll make that wager with you

 

[got_nugs]

that's what I thought. I'll hold off to get better odds on the under. He'll go #1 overall.

I'll make that wager with you

You walk around with a bigger unit than I do. It's at sportsbook, go get it.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

that's what I thought. I'll hold off to get better odds on the under. He'll go #1 overall.

I'll make that wager with you

You walk around with a bigger unit than I do. It's at sportsbook, go get it.

I'm guessing lumpy was cut from sportsbook at least 5 years ago

 

[fantasycurse42]

that's what I thought. I'll hold off to get better odds on the under. He'll go #1 overall.

I'll make that wager with you

You walk around with a bigger unit than I do. It's at sportsbook, go get it.

He goes 1 to the Bucs... Already has a solid following in Florida.

 

[fantasycurse42]

No draft props on 5d

Looking at the props though, might throw a flier down on Dallas beating Seattle in NFC Championship game +876

 

[modogg]

F it, going Hawaii -4 2nd half here. Has been a bit of a tanker tonight, need my boys from the island to keep it going, did fine considering they got crushed the first 10 minutes of the 1st half

well, i stayed up to watch this play go straight . :X

Had Hawaii, happy I fell asleep.

I forget the whole flow of the 2nd half but they were up by 8-10 with a few minutes left. little white guy from Cal Poly can drain a nice 3, and was killing Hawaii. Plus the basketball IQ for that Hawaii team is probably 5 at best. they play pretty dopey sometimes.

 

[got_nugs]

that's what I thought. I'll hold off to get better odds on the under. He'll go #1 overall.

I'll make that wager with you

You walk around with a bigger unit than I do. It's at sportsbook, go get it.

He goes 1 to the Bucs... Already has a solid following in Florida.

Lots of Gators in that area of the state that would probably switch NFL teams if the Bucs took Jameis. I tend to agree that he'll be in Tampa but it's not a 100% pro Jameis area for sure.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Dropping a lottery ticket on the Pistons +420

nice call

 

[Billy Bats]

that's what I thought. I'll hold off to get better odds on the under. He'll go #1 overall.

I'll make that wager with you

You walk around with a bigger unit than I do. It's at sportsbook, go get it.

He goes 1 to the Bucs... Already has a solid following in Florida.

especially if Tampa thanks that Mariota is a system QB, Mariota might be the one who falls.The offenseive coordinator that Tampa hires could be a big hint as to who they draft.

 

[fantasycurse42]

Dropping a lottery ticket on the Pistons +420

nice call

Ever since Smith is gone they are playing real well... After the back to back wins in SA and Dallas, I don't think their odds will be as favorable tomorrow against the Hawks though.

 

[fantasycurse42]

He goes 1 to the Bucs... Already has a solid following in Florida.

Lots of Gators in that area of the state that would probably switch NFL teams if the Bucs took Jameis. I tend to agree that he'll be in Tampa but it's not a 100% pro Jameis area for sure.

He goes 1 to the Bucs... Already has a solid following in Florida.

especially if Tampa thanks that Mariota is a system QB, Mariota might be the one who falls.

He brings people into Raymond James... They ranked near the bottom in attendance this year and he addresses that need much more than Mariota.

Personally I think he is more pro-ready, but I understand a lot of people disagree with that.

He'll also prob need a babysitter a la Dez Bryant, but that worked out in Big D.

 

[tjnc09]

I didn't take the 90% to be literal. But is it garbage or something worth keeping an eye on?

It doesn't make any sense to me. There aren't key numbers in basketball. If he specifically said football, I could maybe believe that because you know how important three and seven are - when those start changing, it's something to watch.But three at half is no different than two or four or 10. It might be something he has gotten lucky at but really has no merit in basketball IMO.

I haven't read the covers thread but there are key numbers in basketball. The numbers are different for CBB and the NBA due to the different late game strategy(NBA players make their foul shots, college kids don't) The numbers aren't as important as say 3 and 7 in football but they are important.It's been a few years since I looked at the data but I believe the NBA numbers were 3/5/7

No idea what the college numbers are but I'd guess 2/3 are pretty important in college

That is actually a very interesting point. 1 is probably the least important number in college basketball and agree 2 and 3 are probably the most important. If a team is down 1, they will always try to foul - you really only get that result if you are down 1 and make a 2 pt shot (then win by 1) or foul and the other team misses the front end of a 1 and 1 or both FT (even the worst FT shooters will be over 50% so these are unlikely events).

I was thinking about the end of game strategy being similar but there is certainly a difference with how a lot of conference games close out with FT and quick shots.

The fact that 5 or 7 would be important in the NBA seems strange though - but there is enough volume of games where landing on those numbers wouldn't be considered random.

 

[tjnc09]

Google says NBA key numbers are 2 and 7.

In short, 2 implies the game is expected to be close.

7 is three possessions and the point when theoretically the losing team gives up and stops fouling (definitely see the difference now between that and six or less which is only two possessions)

Lets see what I can find on CBB

 

[tjnc09]

http://www.boydsbets.com/college-basketball-key-numbers/

A few years old, but over 35k games 2 and 3 are the most important. MOV of 1 is 11th most frequent - smack in the middle of double digit MOV.

Never would have that about that but makes perfect sense. Good stuff lumpy

 

[swirvenirvin]

In case anything else comes up on T-rich

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000455379/article/colts-mum-on-trent-richardsons-role-moving-forward?campaign=Twitter_atn

 

[swirvenirvin]

What did Winston open at already at -140 on under

 

[lumpy19]

Google says NBA key numbers are 2 and 7.

In short, 2 implies the game is expected to be close.

7 is three possessions and the point when theoretically the losing team gives up and stops fouling (definitely see the difference now between that and six or less which is only two possessions)

Lets see what I can find on CBB

I pay no attention to the NBA but I do remember seeing 5 as important but I can't remember the source and I have no idea why.

 

[tjnc09]

http://www.boydsbets.com/nba-key-numbers/

Same guy, but this shows 5 first then 7. I'm sure the other article I found 7 as most important had a different sample. 5-8 in general because of difference between 2 and 3 possessions then 2 is next.

Not sure when this was written, but has the 2 & 7

http://www.docsports.com/NBA/betting/angles.html

 

[got_nugs]

What did Winston open at already at -140 on under

Dunno, just saw it a tweet.

 

[Frostillicus]

Iowa -3

Arizona -5

Az State/Ore State u 125.5

 

[Tiger Fan]

What did Winston open at already at -140 on under

-120 per SB twitter

 

[fantasycurse42]

Iowa -3

Arizona -5

Az State/Ore State u 125.5

Arizona now 6.5 on 5d

 

[got_nugs]

ARod injury news already move the line? It's -6 now

 

[Frostillicus]

Dwyane Wade has made zero threes his last four games on only 4 total attempts. On the season, he has not made a three in 16 of the 27 games he’s played, including five games where he hasn’t even attempted one. In 2013-14 he played one game against Portland, in which he played 34 minutes and didn’t attempt a three. In 2012-13 he played two games against Portland, averaging 35.5 mpg, and did not attempt a single three pointer. In 2011-12, he played 35 minutes in one game against Portland and attempted one three pointer, which he missed.

Portland is #1 in the league allowing just 5.1 made threes per game. Also #1 in the league allowing just 29.2% of opponent threes to go in.

Wade u 0.5 made 3s +130

 

[Peyton Marino]

Dwyane Wade has made zero threes his last four games on only 4 total attempts. On the season, he has not made a three in 16 of the 27 games he’s played, including five games where he hasn’t even attempted one. In 2013-14 he played one game against Portland, in which he played 34 minutes and didn’t attempt a three. In 2012-13 he played two games against Portland, averaging 35.5 mpg, and did not attempt a single three pointer. In 2011-12, he played 35 minutes in one game against Portland and attempted one three pointer, which he missed.

Portland is #1 in the league allowing just 5.1 made threes per game. Also #1 in the league allowing just 29.2% of opponent threes to go in.

Wade u 0.5 made 3s +130

1000 unit play?

 

[Tiger Fan]

Dwyane Wade has made zero threes his last four games on only 4 total attempts. On the season, he has not made a three in 16 of the 27 games he’s played, including five games where he hasn’t even attempted one. In 2013-14 he played one game against Portland, in which he played 34 minutes and didn’t attempt a three. In 2012-13 he played two games against Portland, averaging 35.5 mpg, and did not attempt a single three pointer. In 2011-12, he played 35 minutes in one game against Portland and attempted one three pointer, which he missed.

Portland is #1 in the league allowing just 5.1 made threes per game. Also #1 in the league allowing just 29.2% of opponent threes to go in.

Wade u 0.5 made 3s +130

assume bovada?

 

[regularguy]

Dwyane Wade has made zero threes his last four games on only 4 total attempts. On the season, he has not made a three in 16 of the 27 games hes played, including five games where he hasnt even attempted one. In 2013-14 he played one game against Portland, in which he played 34 minutes and didnt attempt a three. In 2012-13 he played two games against Portland, averaging 35.5 mpg, and did not attempt a single three pointer. In 2011-12, he played 35 minutes in one game against Portland and attempted one three pointer, which he missed.

Portland is #1 in the league allowing just 5.1 made threes per game. Also #1 in the league allowing just 29.2% of opponent threes to go in.

Wade u 0.5 made 3s +130

assume bovada?

Yep

 

[swirvenirvin]

chat with sportsbook.ag ask them where my check is.

them:3-5 weeks sir

mek thats a long time it has been quicker lately

them: yes sometimes it is sometimes its not

me: ok

30 minutes later an email saying they processed it.

DUMB

 

[swirvenirvin]

Line moving on G. Bay down to 5.5 now after the Rodgers news

 

[lumpy19]

chat with sportsbook.ag ask them where my check is.

them:3-5 weeks sir

mek thats a long time it has been quicker lately

them: yes sometimes it is sometimes its not

me: ok

30 minutes later an email saying they processed it.

DUMB

You think its.long now wait til the after the super bowl

 

[Billy Bats]

Lottery ticket pucks parlay:

[57] BLACKHAWKS (CHI) o5½+105

[65] SENATORS (OTT) o5½EV

[70] KINGS (LA) u5+105

[99005] CAPITALS (WASH) (60 MIN) +140

18/1

 

[fantasycurse42]

Dwyane Wade has made zero threes his last four games on only 4 total attempts. On the season, he has not made a three in 16 of the 27 games hes played, including five games where he hasnt even attempted one. In 2013-14 he played one game against Portland, in which he played 34 minutes and didnt attempt a three. In 2012-13 he played two games against Portland, averaging 35.5 mpg, and did not attempt a single three pointer. In 2011-12, he played 35 minutes in one game against Portland and attempted one three pointer, which he missed.

Portland is #1 in the league allowing just 5.1 made threes per game. Also #1 in the league allowing just 29.2% of opponent threes to go in.

Wade u 0.5 made 3s +130

+110 at 5d, still a bet?

 

[ChainsawU]

+110 at 5d, still a bet?

You're looking at an implied probability of .4348 versus an implied probability of .4762. Any updates on the Arizona line at 5D?

 

[fantasycurse42]

+110 at 5d, still a bet?

You're looking at an implied probability of .4348 versus an implied probability of .4762. Any updates on the Arizona line at 5D?

Still holding on at an implied probability of .1782 versus .1354

 

[Doctor Detroit]

+110 at 5d, still a bet?

You're looking at an implied probability of .4348 versus an implied probability of .4762. Any updates on the Arizona line at 5D?

The chance of him responding if you quote him are: .999999888899999999999999014

HTH