swirvenirvin
Footballguy
Think I'm done with college basketball. Ugh :(
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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (5 Viewers)
- Thread starter John Bender
- Start date
got_nugs
Footballguy
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
ChainsawU
Footballguy
I have no idea who that is. The majority of bets were on Tenn yet the line flipped at Pinny about 45 minutes before the tipoff. So someone liked them. Maybe it is this Jimmy guy you're talking about. Anyway, Mizzou just has to beat the zone in the second half and cover +2 for the game. They started out real cold.
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
JD used to post in this thread pretty regularly, but he big-times us now. He gives free picks on Twitter which usually do well. I posted them now and then but nobody seemed to care. This was the last one, which of course I didn't play, and which of course won going away.
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
I played this at +260. Nothing major... $400 to make $1,040.
I love the Seattle half of it. I just can't imagine Rodgers having much success on one leg in that setting. As for the Pats, they saw what Indy's press coverage did to the Broncos last week, and their running game has already decimated the Colts once this year, so why wouldn't the game plan again be to pound them between the tackles, which will 1) spin the clock, and 2) keep Luck on the sidelines.
Of course, my "logic" last week went straight into the toilet, so who the hell knows....
Cue lumpy yelling at me. :(
I love the Seattle half of it. I just can't imagine Rodgers having much success on one leg in that setting. As for the Pats, they saw what Indy's press coverage did to the Broncos last week, and their running game has already decimated the Colts once this year, so why wouldn't the game plan again be to pound them between the tackles, which will 1) spin the clock, and 2) keep Luck on the sidelines.
Of course, my "logic" last week went straight into the toilet, so who the hell knows....
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Theory here (complete speculation) that the fight tonight may be fixed for Wilder. He's a -200 favorite.
Frostillicus
Footballguy
ChainsawU
Footballguy
The NFL is pretty smart. I think because you beat a team a certain way (like the Pats beat the Colts in their previous meeting) is a good arguement for exactly why you won't beat them like that again. The Colts would look like idiots of they let the Pats run on them two games in a row. It's not going to happen, especially with Jones & Landry in there. Also, in the playoffs since 2005 when the Pats face a team that they saw in the regular season already:
SU: 4-8-0 (0.17, 33.3%)
ATS: 3-9-0 (-5.75, 25.0%) avg line: -5.9
O/U: 6-6-0 (0.21, 50.0%) avg total: 47.3 link
When you narrow those games down to non-divisional opponents you get 3-7 SU and 2-8 ATS. And when you narrow those down to the Pats' second playoff game of the season it's 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS with an O/U of 0-4. No way would I back the Pats tomorrow. The Jonas Gray game was a one-week fluke that Belichick exploited.
SU: 4-8-0 (0.17, 33.3%)
ATS: 3-9-0 (-5.75, 25.0%) avg line: -5.9
O/U: 6-6-0 (0.21, 50.0%) avg total: 47.3 link
When you narrow those games down to non-divisional opponents you get 3-7 SU and 2-8 ATS. And when you narrow those down to the Pats' second playoff game of the season it's 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS with an O/U of 0-4. No way would I back the Pats tomorrow. The Jonas Gray game was a one-week fluke that Belichick exploited.
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Zegras11
Footballguy
Don't like this play at all. Ducks talked about playing very focused D before the TOR game and have delivered last two games. NJ only had 6 shots in the first 2 periods. I'm seeing 70% 2-1 here, 30% 3-2.
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
I got Colts ML tomorrow, hoping the side goes to 7. Not even sure why, this is a game I think the Pats should win easily but I've faded the Colts to my detriment in the recent past. Seems like a game where the pundits think they have no shot but Vegas is sitting off the seven, so its ripe for the taking.
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
They did the same thing to them the meeting prior: http://scores.espn.go.com/nfl/boxscore?gameId=340111017
ChainsawU
Footballguy
Arthur Jones didn't play in that game, either. No, I see you though. Props for good research. Check this out, his brother is Jon Jones, the current UFC Light Heavyweight Champion. And his youngest brother, Chandler, is a defensive end for the Patriots. Dude is Bones Jones brother though. That is crazy.
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
They are gonna catch a bit of a break with the temps tomorrow night, even though rain is expected. I just went to the market, and being outside for 30 seconds is unbearable. (I'm 15 minutes from Foxboro for those unaware). Supposed to be about 20 degrees warmer tomorrow.
got_nugs
Footballguy
My girlie turned 12 this week...so we're gonna have a slumber party tomorrow night. I'm hoping it gets cold enough to start a fire outside for the girls. Anything below 70 would be fine.
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
Flames +150
Kings -145
Kings -145
Frostillicus
Footballguy
Gonna take BYU/St. Mary's over 145.5 since it's the last TV game of the night and St. Mary's generally doesn't mind running with the Mormons.
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
I know he didn't post this in here, but I thought this was worth a note. This post was when Oregon was up 7-0 btw:
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Want to try a Martingale where you'll never go broke?
Take the over in a Warriors game. If it loses, double up on the over in their next one. It won't be long before you're rolling in hookers, blow and Zangrillis.
Take the over in a Warriors game. If it loses, double up on the over in their next one. It won't be long before you're rolling in hookers, blow and Zangrillis.
got_nugs
Footballguy
I'm a big fan of 1st half overs fo sho. Looks like the game over is on pace too (no jinxy!)
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
They just shoot the friggin lights out. It's astonishing.
Frostillicus
Footballguy
#### that guy. He ####ed me for years (maybe just one) as a Twins' closer, then went to Toronto and the one time I'm at Yankee Stadium everything is set up to see Mariano come in and I can't wait and it's was the #1 thing I was hoping to see on this east coast trip and I have my phone already to record it and Rauch gives up a ####### two run bomb in the bottom of the 8th to make it a 4 run lead and Mariano immediately sits down.
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Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
I'm going to show up at your door one day with him, we'll see what happens. I'm guessing you try to kiss him on the lips.
Frostillicus
Footballguy
Today:
Sides: 4-4
Totals: 3-3
Look at me, I'm a coin flip!
Sides: 4-4
Totals: 3-3
Look at me, I'm a coin flip!
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Frostillicus
Footballguy
I'd probably be like "what the #### are you doing here?" and then I'd invite you both in and we'd have a beer and I'd tell Rauch the story and we'd all have a good lauch.
Frostillicus
Footballguy
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Frostillicus
Footballguy
Indiana +5
Frostillicus
Footballguy
gussy
Footballguy
Gussy's Sunday Pucks Fade Report:
Stars at Hawks (-260) Probably the 1st time since I've been putting these together that I feel good about my Hawks. Hawks are 3-0 vs. Dallas this year, Stars are on 2nd of back to back after beating Washington (without Holtby in net) tonight and are 0-5 on 2nd games of back to back's. Only way to play this is by putting the Hawks in a parlay, with a potential play on the Hawks over TT if it is set at 2.5 and the vig isn't too terrible.
Rangers (+120) at Pens-Rangers have come back to earth a little bit, although the competition and schedule hasn't been kind of late. Pens continue to be blah. I like an OT play in this game but I doubt you get the +300 or so that I'd want to play it. I lean Rangers, haven't decided if I'll play it or not.
Yotes at Jets (-230) -Jets playing very good, physical hockey right now, Zona not good on the road, not good in net, 2nd game of a back to back. I'm going to assume they will start Hutchison here, and if so I like the Jets, again, only way to play them is in a parlay. Only concern I have is the potential letdown after the big game in Chicago on Friday. Could also look at the Jets over on the TT.
Sabres at Wings (-330) Lot of really high lines lately, this one is deserved though. Sabres continue to lose, Wings had an impressive performance tonight against the Preds. You can throw the Wings in a parlay, otherwise not much to do. Also could look at Wings over TT.
I'll post what I play, assuming I do, tomorrow. Fade accordingly.
Stars at Hawks (-260) Probably the 1st time since I've been putting these together that I feel good about my Hawks. Hawks are 3-0 vs. Dallas this year, Stars are on 2nd of back to back after beating Washington (without Holtby in net) tonight and are 0-5 on 2nd games of back to back's. Only way to play this is by putting the Hawks in a parlay, with a potential play on the Hawks over TT if it is set at 2.5 and the vig isn't too terrible.
Rangers (+120) at Pens-Rangers have come back to earth a little bit, although the competition and schedule hasn't been kind of late. Pens continue to be blah. I like an OT play in this game but I doubt you get the +300 or so that I'd want to play it. I lean Rangers, haven't decided if I'll play it or not.
Yotes at Jets (-230) -Jets playing very good, physical hockey right now, Zona not good on the road, not good in net, 2nd game of a back to back. I'm going to assume they will start Hutchison here, and if so I like the Jets, again, only way to play them is in a parlay. Only concern I have is the potential letdown after the big game in Chicago on Friday. Could also look at the Jets over on the TT.
Sabres at Wings (-330) Lot of really high lines lately, this one is deserved though. Sabres continue to lose, Wings had an impressive performance tonight against the Preds. You can throw the Wings in a parlay, otherwise not much to do. Also could look at Wings over TT.
I'll post what I play, assuming I do, tomorrow. Fade accordingly.
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
C'mon man, don't do that. Being confident in your picks is half the battle. When we expect to lose, that's usually what happens.
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
Gimme a Gussyhawks chalk parlay tomorrow
Blackhawks -245
Jets -225
Red Wings -330
Seahawks -350
+240
Blackhawks -245
Jets -225
Red Wings -330
Seahawks -350
+240
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
Flames!!!!! 
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Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Zegras11
Footballguy
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
GREEN BAY PACKERS at SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (3:05 p.m. ET Sunday on FOX)
Here the opener was bet higher, and we’ve seen a stable Seattle -7.5 through the week. This is a very clear indicator that sharps aren’t optimistic about the Packers. That hook would have been bought when it first became available if that was the case. Sharps like Seattle’s prospects against the injured Aaron Rodgers, and a Packers team that was fortunate to survive its game with Dallas last weekend.
I should also note that the public generally takes favorites in big TV events like this (which most of you know). Seattle money wanted to get in on the key number before that had a chance to happen. If the public does come in heavily on the Seahawks from now until kickoff, we may see the game rise to -8 or even -9. It’s not clear to me at the moment what number it would take for sharp Green Bay “value bets” to enter. We know it’s not +7.5. Might be +8. Though, sharps who do prefer the dog may wait even longer given how much Denver rose on game day last week in the same price range vs. Indianapolis. Eight and nine are relatively dead numbers in the percentages, so it’s hard to say. I can’t imagine that Green Bay money would stay on the sidelines if +9 were breached. (Also, if Aaron Rodgers looks to be moving very well in pregame warm-ups, that might encourage Green Bay money to come in more aggressively).
The Over/Under hasn’t moved off of its opener of 46.5 as of this writing. The quants made the number in that range. There are certainly concerns here about the health of Rodgers, and potential weather influences (it’s currently forecast to be windy). If Rodgers isn’t looking mobile in pre-game warm-ups, and the flags are stiff, I would expect Under money to come in. Squares (the public) generally bet Overs in big TV games, but are less likely to do that when a great defense is involved.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS at NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (6:40 p.m. ET Sunday on CBS)
Here, we have a move in the other direction. And, that’s a fascinating development because the drop to Indianapolis +6.5 goes against the general flow of public money in big TV games, and the general flow of money on Tom Brady and New England in big TV games! Sitting in the exact same place as GB/Seattle on the opener, this one moved off a key number AWAY from a dynasty team, and wasn’t immediately bought back by value players.
In this case, a half a point is a HUGE move because of its context.
We can assume with some confidence that if the public bets New England through the weekend, we’ll have a tug-of-war between New England -6.5 and Indianapolis +7. Sportsbooks will be rooting very hard for the game not to land on seven because that would mean nobody lost their bets (only winners and pushes).
Not surprisingly, the Over/Under is up from an opener of 53 to 54.5. Sharps preferring the Over wanted to get in before the public bet this battle of quarterbacks. Weather doesn’t look like it’s going to be much of a factor…and Baltimore/New England on this field last seek made it to 66 points last week in very bitter cold. Under money is likely to come in if the line keeps rising. You saw that this past Monday in Ohio State/Oregon where late-afternoon sharp action was on the Under after the total rose too high. I would definitely expect that at 56. Might even happen at 55.
Here the opener was bet higher, and we’ve seen a stable Seattle -7.5 through the week. This is a very clear indicator that sharps aren’t optimistic about the Packers. That hook would have been bought when it first became available if that was the case. Sharps like Seattle’s prospects against the injured Aaron Rodgers, and a Packers team that was fortunate to survive its game with Dallas last weekend.
I should also note that the public generally takes favorites in big TV events like this (which most of you know). Seattle money wanted to get in on the key number before that had a chance to happen. If the public does come in heavily on the Seahawks from now until kickoff, we may see the game rise to -8 or even -9. It’s not clear to me at the moment what number it would take for sharp Green Bay “value bets” to enter. We know it’s not +7.5. Might be +8. Though, sharps who do prefer the dog may wait even longer given how much Denver rose on game day last week in the same price range vs. Indianapolis. Eight and nine are relatively dead numbers in the percentages, so it’s hard to say. I can’t imagine that Green Bay money would stay on the sidelines if +9 were breached. (Also, if Aaron Rodgers looks to be moving very well in pregame warm-ups, that might encourage Green Bay money to come in more aggressively).
The Over/Under hasn’t moved off of its opener of 46.5 as of this writing. The quants made the number in that range. There are certainly concerns here about the health of Rodgers, and potential weather influences (it’s currently forecast to be windy). If Rodgers isn’t looking mobile in pre-game warm-ups, and the flags are stiff, I would expect Under money to come in. Squares (the public) generally bet Overs in big TV games, but are less likely to do that when a great defense is involved.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS at NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (6:40 p.m. ET Sunday on CBS)
Here, we have a move in the other direction. And, that’s a fascinating development because the drop to Indianapolis +6.5 goes against the general flow of public money in big TV games, and the general flow of money on Tom Brady and New England in big TV games! Sitting in the exact same place as GB/Seattle on the opener, this one moved off a key number AWAY from a dynasty team, and wasn’t immediately bought back by value players.
In this case, a half a point is a HUGE move because of its context.
We can assume with some confidence that if the public bets New England through the weekend, we’ll have a tug-of-war between New England -6.5 and Indianapolis +7. Sportsbooks will be rooting very hard for the game not to land on seven because that would mean nobody lost their bets (only winners and pushes).
Not surprisingly, the Over/Under is up from an opener of 53 to 54.5. Sharps preferring the Over wanted to get in before the public bet this battle of quarterbacks. Weather doesn’t look like it’s going to be much of a factor…and Baltimore/New England on this field last seek made it to 66 points last week in very bitter cold. Under money is likely to come in if the line keeps rising. You saw that this past Monday in Ohio State/Oregon where late-afternoon sharp action was on the Under after the total rose too high. I would definitely expect that at 56. Might even happen at 55.
