FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (8 Viewers)

[comfortably numb]

adding

will the game be tied after the 1st score

YES -110

o112.5 -125

Not sure I like this one. I have a feeling the game won't be tied after the first score

I love it

tempted to add more

 

[tonydead]

No coin flip prop at Sportbook?

It's the 5th bet down under all bets. Interestingly tails is even money

 

[modogg]

We on Under for National Anthem?

nope, over. books have it at 2 minutes 2 seconds, and she usually goes around 2:18 or so

 

[regularguy]

We on Under for National Anthem?

nope, over. books have it at 2 minutes 2 seconds, and she usually goes around 2:18 or so

I thought Truck played under and had her at closer to 1:40 based on past performance.

 

[Tiger Fan]

FWIW, I listened to the PM podcast this morning and he said he baselined a bunch of peoples Anthems who sang at the SB. The SB anthems were like 10-15% longer than at non SB events. She sang it at 1:57 at the All Star Game this year

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1lEI_b6OMAc#t=517

 

[Tiger Fan]

Last 10 Super Bowl scoring by half

2014: 22-29

2013: 27-38

2012: 19-19

2011: 31-25

2010: 16-32

2009: 24-26

2008: 10-21

2007: 30-16

2006: 10-21

2005: 14-31

Was just coming in to post this. Total second half points has gone 12-2-1 in the last 15 Super Bowls.

i bet it earlier in the week. nice

where'd you see this? having trouble finding it.

no idea how this will come over in format, but it is in RB under Seattle props:

Will the Seattle Seahawks score more points in the? - Super Bowl XLIX - New England Patriots vs. Seattle Seahawks - 02/01 06:30PM

2307
1st Half
Max: 100

Risk Win​

+½​

-125

​

​

2308
2nd Half + OT

-½​

-105

that's just SEattle. I think the data above was referring to 2nd half total for both teams, no?

 

[Tiger Fan]

nm, found it.

Will there be more points scored in? - Super Bowl XLIX - New England Patriots vs. Seattle Seahawks - 02/01 05:30PM

2021
1st Half
Max: 150

Risk Win​

PK​

+135

​

​

2022
2nd Half + OT

PK​

-180

​

 

[fantasycurse42]

NE plays close Super Bowls, anyone on last score not a TD +160?

 

[modogg]

Last 10 Super Bowl scoring by half

2014: 22-29

2013: 27-38

2012: 19-19

2011: 31-25

2010: 16-32

2009: 24-26

2008: 10-21

2007: 30-16

2006: 10-21

2005: 14-31

Was just coming in to post this. Total second half points has gone 12-2-1 in the last 15 Super Bowls.

i bet it earlier in the week. nice

where'd you see this? having trouble finding it.

no idea how this will come over in format, but it is in RB under Seattle props:

Will the Seattle Seahawks score more points in the? - Super Bowl XLIX - New England Patriots vs. Seattle Seahawks - 02/01 06:30PM

2307
1st Half
Max: 100

Risk Win​

+½​

-125

​

​

2308
2nd Half + OT

-½​

-105

that's just SEattle. I think the data above was referring to 2nd half total for both teams, no?

yeah it is. i took the Seattle one though because they have scored very little in the 1st half for quite a few games

 

[Frostillicus]

More like Zak Worthless.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

We on Under for National Anthem?

nope, over. books have it at 2 minutes 2 seconds, and she usually goes around 2:18 or so

I thought Truck played under and had her at closer to 1:40 based on past performance.

Somebody make a decision!!!!!!

 

[fantasycurse42]

NE plays close Super Bowls, anyone on last score not a TD +160?

Both teams make a 33 yd + FG +100... They've got the lines set at 7.5 points for each kicker, this feels like a good one.

Who are the thread picks for first TD?

 

[ChainsawU]

The Super Bowl since 2001 (entire database), filtered by underdog: link

SU: 7-6-0 (3.85, 53.8%)

ATS: 10-3-0 (9.92, 76.9%) avg line: 6.1

O/U: 6-7-0 (1.04, 46.2%) avg total: 47.3

Patriots Super Bowls have ended in margins of 4,3,3,3,3 since 2001. link

Since the 2001 season, when the spread is less than a TD the underdog is 5-2 SU and ATS, and Vegas' return was 8.97 ±4% in those seven games (from the article Swirve posted). In the games the dog lost SU but covered the spread, Vegas returned 13.5 ±5%. link

 

[Billy Bats]

Ovie with 9 shots on goal so far.

 

[Dan Lambskin]

2u on Over 47

I think Seattle puts up 20-23 and I think the Pats win so I'll take my chances they put up 27+

 

[JaxBill]

fwiw

Rachel Nichols ‏@Rachel__Nichols 32m32 minutes ago

Just texted w/#Seahawks Richard Sherman. He tells me his girlfriend Ashley is not experiencing any signs of labor & that he's playing today

 

[swirvenirvin]

More like Zak Worthless.

yeah dawson shut him down most of the game, then when he did get past someone he dished it to the open guy

 

[swirvenirvin]

Ovie with 9 shots on goal so far.

thats our 1st winner then!

 

[ChainsawU]

On the greatest betting day of the year, I wish all of you the best of luck

Great = exciting?

Because the Super Bowl should be no more important (betting-wise) than a MAC game in October.

I liked reading this. I got 2 hundred on Seattle and that's it.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

National Anthem u122.5 -135(2007 performance ~94 seconds https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Js2miifnClM)

bump

 

[modogg]

On the greatest betting day of the year, I wish all of you the best of luck

Great = exciting?

Because the Super Bowl should be no more important (betting-wise) than a MAC game in October.

I liked reading this. I got 2 hundred on Seattle and that's it.

you guys are doing it all wrong. if you aren't betting on the pre-game, half-time, or any novelty props, you aren't living

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

/runs down the ramp, slides into the ring

Menzel sang the national anthem at the MLB 2014 All-Star Game. Video here: http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x21jerv_hd-idina-menzel-national-anthem-2014-mlb-all-star-game_people

She does not exactly speed through it. I have her at right about 2:00, maybe a smidge under.

bump

 

[Raider Nation]

The Linemakers ‏@TheLinemakers 24h24 hours ago

Make that 4 Las Vegas books that have gone to #Seahawks -1 today; Golden Nugget the latest.

 

[comfortably numb]

/runs down the ramp, slides into the ring

Menzel sang the national anthem at the MLB 2014 All-Star Game. Video here: http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x21jerv_hd-idina-menzel-national-anthem-2014-mlb-all-star-game_people

She does not exactly speed through it. I have her at right about 2:00, maybe a smidge under.

bump

Alright...in for u122.5

also took o47.5 Nielsen ratings

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

NV sportsbooks made 40% more money on football in 2014 than 2013. So yeah, doubling up on that Las Vegas handle bet.

Over $120MM is up to +125 now.

 

[nittanylion]

The Linemakers ‏@TheLinemakers 24h24 hours ago

Make that 4 Las Vegas books that have gone to #Seahawks -1 today; Golden Nugget the latest.

Who's money moved the line from Seahawks -2.5 to Patriots -1 within 48 hours after the lines were initially released? Squares aren't placing wagers that far out. You're absolutely right that the pros look at the sides and O/E of this game just like any other, and that it's on the props that they feast. Super Bowl has to be one of the most publicly bet games of the Season, with higher # of individual bets on side and total coming from squares, and the majority of that square money coming in on Saturday or today, as the square public typically doesn't lie in wait for line moves and such, they just take what's available when they bet, which is closer to kickoff than farther away. I'm probably wrong, but I think a lot of square public money is hitting the Seahawks hard. I'm liking the Pats more and more.

Probably going to lose my ###...

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Would National Anthem normally be under "novelty props?" I don't even see this at sportsbook or greek. Who has it?

 

[Raider Nation]

The Linemakers ‏@TheLinemakers 24h24 hours ago

Make that 4 Las Vegas books that have gone to #Seahawks -1 today; Golden Nugget the latest.

Who's money moved the line from Seahawks -2.5 to Patriots -1 within 48 hours after the lines were initially released? Squares aren't placing wagers that far out. You're absolutely right that the pros look at the sides and O/E of this game just like any other, and that it's on the props that they feast. Super Bowl has to be one of the most publicly bet games of the Season, with higher # of individual bets on side and total coming from squares, and the majority of that square money coming in on Saturday or today, as the square public typically doesn't lie in wait for line moves and such, they just take what's available when they bet, which is closer to kickoff than farther away. I'm probably wrong, but I think a lot of square public money is hitting the Seahawks hard. I'm liking the Pats more and more.

Probably going to lose my ###...

That line moved as the Pats were destroying a bad Colts team in the 2H. People are influenced by the most recent thing they saw. Seems like everyone has come to their senses now.

 

[LOCO]

Would National Anthem normally be under "novelty props?" I don't even see this at sportsbook or greek. Who has it?

5 dimes has it.

under +110

 

[Raider Nation]

Bruce Murray interviewed the National Anthem chick on Sirius NFL radio on Friday. She's aware of the prop bet, and she said she may "drag it out" a bit.

Not sure if she was kidding or not.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

The Linemakers ‏@TheLinemakers 24h24 hours ago

Make that 4 Las Vegas books that have gone to #Seahawks -1 today; Golden Nugget the latest.

Who's money moved the line from Seahawks -2.5 to Patriots -1 within 48 hours after the lines were initially released? Squares aren't placing wagers that far out. You're absolutely right that the pros look at the sides and O/E of this game just like any other, and that it's on the props that they feast. Super Bowl has to be one of the most publicly bet games of the Season, with higher # of individual bets on side and total coming from squares, and the majority of that square money coming in on Saturday or today, as the square public typically doesn't lie in wait for line moves and such, they just take what's available when they bet, which is closer to kickoff than farther away. I'm probably wrong, but I think a lot of square public money is hitting the Seahawks hard. I'm liking the Pats more and more.

Probably going to lose my ###...

That line moved as the Pats were destroying a bad Colts team in the 2H. People are influenced by the most recent thing they saw. Seems like everyone has come to their senses now.

Recency bias plays heavy in the public for sure. Greek/Heritage opened at a pick'em, it's really the same concept as stock market overnight futures. Seattle was at -2 or so before the Pats game finished, and the books adjusted accordingly.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Would National Anthem normally be under "novelty props?" I don't even see this at sportsbook or greek. Who has it?

5 dimes has it.

under +110

Thanks man!

 

[mquinnjr]

On the greatest betting day of the year, I wish all of you the best of luck

Great = exciting?

Because the Super Bowl should be no more important (betting-wise) than a MAC game in October.

I liked reading this. I got 2 hundred on Seattle and that's it.

you guys are doing it all wrong. if you aren't betting on the pre-game, half-time, or any novelty props, you aren't living

30 bets and counting here on props, 0 on the side/total.

 

[modogg]

Bruce Murray interviewed the National Anthem chick on Sirius NFL radio on Friday. She's aware of the prop bet, and she said she may "drag it out" a bit.

Not sure if she was kidding or not.

i like that. You have to listen to the girl!

 

[Tiger Fan]

Ovie with 9 shots on goal so far.

thats our 1st winner then!

completely forgot to bet those cross sports one

 

[TheGooRoo]

Here's a list of plays from a guy pretty connected to the prop world.

http://awesomescreenshot.com/03a4bbzh7f

 

[comfortably numb]

Lol.

Got a dime and half all over on props just threw down .25 on under 47.5 to have something on the game.

Go props!

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Shane Vereen OVER 3.5 Receptions +125

Shane Vereen OVER 27.5 yards receiving -115

Marshawn Lynch OVER 19 rushing attempts -115

Patriots first scoring play: Field Goal +125

Seahawks first scoring play: Touchdown Run +250

First penalty: offsides/encroachment/Neutral zone +250

Those are my props. I'm sure I'll tail some others posted here, but I liked all of those.

Add Russell Wilson MVP +280

Have 1h Under 24.5 for 3u and Seahawks pick'em for 6u

 

[got_nugs]

Bruce Murray interviewed the National Anthem chick on Sirius NFL radio on Friday. She's aware of the prop bet, and she said she may "drag it out" a bit.

Not sure if she was kidding or not.

She told Lebatard the same thing Thursday.

 

[The Ref]

Here's a list of plays from a guy pretty connected to the prop world.

http://awesomescreenshot.com/03a4bbzh7f

Is it TheGooRoo.?

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Here's a list of plays from a guy pretty connected to the prop world.

http://awesomescreenshot.com/03a4bbzh7f

Sweet, added these three from that list:

Luke Wilson OVER 3 catches +110
Julian Edelman UNDER 6.5 receptions +100
Jermaine Kerse OVER 3 receptions +107

 

[TheGooRoo]

Here's a list of plays from a guy pretty connected to the prop world.

http://awesomescreenshot.com/03a4bbzh7f

Is it TheGooRoo.?

It is not, but the guy is sharp. TGR. is on Seattle, National Anthem u, Gronk and Lafell u recepts, and Wilson -17.5 rush yds over Vereen, among others.

My largest bets are:

Sea +1 and pk for 5.5k.

Willson o 2.5 rec for 3k

Willson o 30.5 yds for 3k

Blount u 62.5 for 3k

Vereen o 28.5 rec yd for 2k

Vereen o 12.5 longest rec for 4k

 

[Doctor Detroit]

I got Fritz for Puppy Bowl MVP +450

 

[swirvenirvin]

Here's a list of plays from a guy pretty connected to the prop world.

http://awesomescreenshot.com/03a4bbzh7f

another guy who is pretty good is all over edelman under too

 

[Dan Lambskin]

I grabbed the anthem over

 

[modogg]

Here's a list of plays from a guy pretty connected to the prop world.

http://awesomescreenshot.com/03a4bbzh7f

Is it TheGooRoo.?

It is not, but the guy is sharp. TGR. is on Seattle, National Anthem u, Gronk and Lafell u recepts, and Wilson -17.5 rush yds over Vereen, among others.

My largest bets are:

Sea +1 and pk for 5.5k.

Willson o 2.5 rec for 3k

Willson o 30.5 yds for 3k

Blount u 62.5 for 3k

Vereen o 28.5 rec yd for 2k

Vereen o 12.5 longest rec for 4k

I like that he has money on Lynch yes with the crotch grab. Think i will have to tail that one

 

[Annyong]

I grabbed the anthem over

I went under because women are liars

 

[Doctor Detroit]

I got Fritz for Puppy Bowl MVP +450

Henry has 4 TDs now, ####### mother####er!!!!!

 

[TheGooRoo]

Here's a list of plays from a guy pretty connected to the prop world.

http://awesomescreenshot.com/03a4bbzh7f

another guy who is pretty good is all over edelman under too

You're probably talking about NFLPlayerProps. There is alot of sharing/stealing among these guys.

 

[swirvenirvin]

Here's a list of plays from a guy pretty connected to the prop world.

http://awesomescreenshot.com/03a4bbzh7f

another guy who is pretty good is all over edelman under too

You're probably talking about NFLPlayerProps. There is alot of sharing/stealing among these guys.

yeppppp.. Who is doing the stealing?