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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (1 Viewer)

oukurt

Footballguy
Air Force may have to rely on the pass a bit more because Toledo has been solid against the run, allowing an average of 123.2 yards, while ranking 109th out of 120 FBS schools in pass defense at 277.9.
I think the bolded is one of those throwaway stats. Nobody NEEDS to run on them because their pass defense is non-existent.Still, even if they are "decent" against the run, the triple-option presents unique challenges which Toledo doesn't see in the MAC.
Agree with this. The option is going to be a nightmare for Toledo defense and team speed is a must to shut down the option, which in the only game I have seen Toledo play, they seem to lack in that department. Toledo's defense isn't very good, allowing nearly 31 points per game, so if Jefferson Jr. can exploit the Rockets defense with his arm a bit (and he is a competent passer), there's no telling how many points the Falcons can put up on the scoreboard. I expect AF RB, Asher Clark to find the end zone early and often and Air Force to wear down the Toledo D, keeping Toledo's potent offense off the field. I haven't bet a bowl game yet but I am getting down big on the Falcons +3 and ML. This is as tasty as they come. Air Force 41-Toledo 31.
 

shake zula

Footballguy
Air Force may have to rely on the pass a bit more because Toledo has been solid against the run, allowing an average of 123.2 yards, while ranking 109th out of 120 FBS schools in pass defense at 277.9.
I think the bolded is one of those throwaway stats. Nobody NEEDS to run on them because their pass defense is non-existent.Still, even if they are "decent" against the run, the triple-option presents unique challenges which Toledo doesn't see in the MAC.
Agree with this. The option is going to be a nightmare for Toledo defense and team speed is a must to shut down the option, which in the only game I have seen Toledo play, they seem to lack in that department. Toledo's defense isn't very good, allowing nearly 31 points per game, so if Jefferson Jr. can exploit the Rockets defense with his arm a bit (and he is a competent passer), there's no telling how many points the Falcons can put up on the scoreboard. I expect AF RB, Asher Clark to find the end zone early and often and Air Force to wear down the Toledo D, keeping Toledo's potent offense off the field. I haven't bet a bowl game yet but I am getting down big on the Falcons +3 and ML. This is as tasty as they come. Air Force 41-Toledo 31.
Had a much better day yesterday and looking at Falcons +3 today. DD was talking about weather being rainy/windy today for the game. Not really. It's actually a beautiful day in DC. I'm staying away from o/u in this #### show. In the NBA I really like the Heat O187. I've hit on the over twice with the Heat this season. The o/u has so far not taken into consideration the Heat's "new" fast paced offense.

 

xulf

Footballguy
Had a much better day yesterday and looking at Falcons +3 today. DD was talking about weather being rainy/windy today for the game. Not really. It's actually a beautiful day in DC. I'm staying away from o/u in this #### show. In the NBA I really like the Heat O187. I've hit on the over twice with the Heat this season. The o/u has so far not taken into consideration the Heat's "new" fast paced offense.
That over is flying up the board...now at 190.5. I got in at 188 :thumbup: So...do we have a consensus for the Tol/AFA game today? Its moved to +4 on SB, but tribecalledjeff likes Toledo. How much is Toledos coach being gone going to effect their scoring?ETA - I don't know if I want to bet on this game, but it's my birthday and Im taking off work early and figure I may as well throw this scorefest on and put some dough on it
 
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TheGooRoo

Footballguy
Had a much better day yesterday and looking at Falcons +3 today. DD was talking about weather being rainy/windy today for the game. Not really. It's actually a beautiful day in DC. I'm staying away from o/u in this #### show.

In the NBA I really like the Heat O187. I've hit on the over twice with the Heat this season. The o/u has so far not taken into consideration the Heat's "new" fast paced offense.
That over is flying up the board...now at 190.5. I got in at 188 :thumbup: So...do we have a consensus for the Tol/AFA game today? Its moved to +4 on SB, but tribecalledjeff likes Toledo. How much is Toledos coach being gone going to effect their scoring?

ETA - I don't know if I want to bet on this game, but it's my birthday and Im taking off work early and figure I may as well throw this scorefest on and put some dough on it
Their offensive coordinator is still there (now the head coach), so scoring shouldn't be any different.
 

Doctor Detroit

Please remove your headgear
DD was talking about weather being rainy/windy today for the game. Not really. It's actually a beautiful day in DC. I'm staying away from o/u in this #### show.
Don't misquote me jerkoff. I said it was going to rain on Tuesday (which it did) and that it was gonna be windy today, which it is.
 

Doctor Detroit

Please remove your headgear
Side back down to three. Wish I would have gotten Air Force at +160 which they were at briefly.

Added more though, 1.25u Air Force +140

Not playing the total but I still think it lands under. If I get to play grabass with Pam Ward I'll post the details here. See you all tomorrow! GO AIR FORCE!!!!!!!

 

Hoart Petterson

Footballguy
A specialty offense like AF is sometimes a detriment in bowl games with the extra time for opponents to prepare. Yeah, toledo hasn't seen anything like this and no matter how they've prepared it won't be like what they'll see on the field today but the added preparation time definitely doesn't hurt them. Also I say extra pressure is on AF playing in the military bowl. You're supposed to win that game if you're the service academy. Throw in the extra travel distance and time zone change and I'm on Toledo.

eta...I think toledo is just a better team. AF's last 5 games were all games in which they were heavily favored against lousy teams. Toledo probably should have beaten OSU in the game and for sure got rooked @ syracuse. Only game they lost after that was a 63-60 barnburner to the best team in their conference.

 
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Raider Nation

Devil's Advocate
Doc, I couldn't respect your CFB knowledge any more, but after researching this all night, I'm on the other side.

Air Force/Toledo OVER 70.

I don't think anybody is stopping anybody in this game.

And the winds aren't as bad as previously feared. I'm seeing 17 mph.

 

kt3nlee

Footballguy
got scared for #5 last night...gonna start over today

#1 air force team total o33.5--i agree with most, how does toledo stop them

 
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Raider Nation

Devil's Advocate
There was actually a really good post at Covers (you heard me) about this game.
Play of the year is:Toledo -3 ... AF has just 5 wins against D-1 opponents this year - not one of them has a winning record or is in a bowl game. Here are the list of teams and records for Air Force's five D-1 wins:mad:Navy (4-5su)@New Mexico (1-11su)Army (3-8su)UNLV (2-10)Colorado State (3-9su)So that's a compiled opponents record of 13-45 vs the teams Air Force had beat in D-1 play. For most of you wondering where the other 2 wins came from, Air Force had wins against the 6-5 South Dakota & 5-6 Tennessee State teams. Air Force's defense will be no match for this Toledo offense that is ranked 8th nationally in yards gained per game as they have many playmakers. Terrance Owens & Austin Danton have lead this team to victories over bowl teams Temple & Western Michigan while putting up 199 points on 5 different bowl teams combined (Ohio st, Boise st, Temple, Western Mich & Northern Illinois). That's an average of 39.8ppg vs teams in bowl games this season. When you have a go to wide receiver like Eric Page who caught 111 passes for over 1100 yards and 10 TDs, your offense is going to have a great shot at success. This kid can fly up and down the field and he tore up defenses all season long. I have no doubts in Toledo in this match up at all and I give them a very high probability of winning this game by double digits over the much weaker and one dimensional and very predictable Air Force team... This is my play of the year. Toledo has advantages all over the field in the talent department.
 

Raider Nation

Devil's Advocate
For those of you who like Air Force (I don't), go ahead and shoot for some extra cash and parlay it with the under.

That's as correlated as a parlay gets. If the Falcons stay within 3, the game is almost certainly going under.

 

Doctor Detroit

Please remove your headgear
Doc, I couldn't respect your CFB knowledge any more, but after researching this all night, I'm on the other side.

Air Force/Toledo OVER 70.

I don't think anybody is stopping anybody in this game.

And the winds aren't as bad as previously feared. I'm seeing 17 mph.
At RFK now. Winds are really impacting kicks, nothing is coming close to being made. Toledo is warming up and the passing seems to be in snyc, except on the far hash outs and some of the long balls.As far as the argument on who Air Force has beaten, well they've had to play better competition as a whole. They have a common opponent and Air Force played Bosie better than Toledo did and AF was at Boise.

I think they are better coached and the system will be touh to stop. Tony Jefferson is one of the better Falcon qbs ever (he's no Dee Dowes) and the academy will chew clockm

35-27 Air Force

 

Raider Nation

Devil's Advocate
Doc, I couldn't respect your CFB knowledge any more, but after researching this all night, I'm on the other side.

Air Force/Toledo OVER 70.

I don't think anybody is stopping anybody in this game.

And the winds aren't as bad as previously feared. I'm seeing 17 mph.
At RFK now. Winds are really impacting kicks, nothing is coming close to being made. Toledo is warming up and the passing seems to be in snyc, except on the far hash outs and some of the long balls.As far as the argument on who Air Force has beaten, well they've had to play better competition as a whole. They have a common opponent and Air Force played Bosie better than Toledo did and AF was at Boise.

I think they are better coached and the system will be touh to stop. Tony Jefferson is one of the better Falcon qbs ever (he's no Dee Dowes) and the academy will chew clockm

35-27 Air Force
Does the field look dry? Good footing?
 

TheGooRoo

Footballguy
There was actually a really good post at Covers (you heard me) about this game.
Play of the year is:Toledo -3 ... AF has just 5 wins against D-1 opponents this year - not one of them has a winning record or is in a bowl game. Here are the list of teams and records for Air Force's five D-1 wins:mad:Navy (4-5su)@New Mexico (1-11su)Army (3-8su)UNLV (2-10)Colorado State (3-9su)So that's a compiled opponents record of 13-45 vs the teams Air Force had beat in D-1 play. For most of you wondering where the other 2 wins came from, Air Force had wins against the 6-5 South Dakota & 5-6 Tennessee State teams. Air Force's defense will be no match for this Toledo offense that is ranked 8th nationally in yards gained per game as they have many playmakers. Terrance Owens & Austin Danton have lead this team to victories over bowl teams Temple & Western Michigan while putting up 199 points on 5 different bowl teams combined (Ohio st, Boise st, Temple, Western Mich & Northern Illinois). That's an average of 39.8ppg vs teams in bowl games this season. When you have a go to wide receiver like Eric Page who caught 111 passes for over 1100 yards and 10 TDs, your offense is going to have a great shot at success. This kid can fly up and down the field and he tore up defenses all season long. I have no doubts in Toledo in this match up at all and I give them a very high probability of winning this game by double digits over the much weaker and one dimensional and very predictable Air Force team... This is my play of the year. Toledo has advantages all over the field in the talent department.
You cut out the best part! "Toledo -3 for 50 units" :lmao: Any game analysis on Toledo that doesn't mention Adonis Thomas is very incomplete.
 

Raider Nation

Devil's Advocate
There was actually a really good post at Covers (you heard me) about this game.
Play of the year is:Toledo -3 ... AF has just 5 wins against D-1 opponents this year - not one of them has a winning record or is in a bowl game. Here are the list of teams and records for Air Force's five D-1 wins:mad:Navy (4-5su)@New Mexico (1-11su)Army (3-8su)UNLV (2-10)Colorado State (3-9su)So that's a compiled opponents record of 13-45 vs the teams Air Force had beat in D-1 play. For most of you wondering where the other 2 wins came from, Air Force had wins against the 6-5 South Dakota & 5-6 Tennessee State teams. Air Force's defense will be no match for this Toledo offense that is ranked 8th nationally in yards gained per game as they have many playmakers. Terrance Owens & Austin Danton have lead this team to victories over bowl teams Temple & Western Michigan while putting up 199 points on 5 different bowl teams combined (Ohio st, Boise st, Temple, Western Mich & Northern Illinois). That's an average of 39.8ppg vs teams in bowl games this season. When you have a go to wide receiver like Eric Page who caught 111 passes for over 1100 yards and 10 TDs, your offense is going to have a great shot at success. This kid can fly up and down the field and he tore up defenses all season long. I have no doubts in Toledo in this match up at all and I give them a very high probability of winning this game by double digits over the much weaker and one dimensional and very predictable Air Force team... This is my play of the year. Toledo has advantages all over the field in the talent department.
You cut out the best part! "Toledo -3 for 50 units" :lmao: Any game analysis on Toledo that doesn't mention Adonis Thomas is very incomplete.
I intentionally left out the "50 units" part. Ruined an otherwise great post.Also had to clean up his spelling a bit. :)
 

Good Posting Judge

Footballguy
How is AccuScore in re: player props? Worth a ####? I'm guessing if ESPN offers it, everyone with a couple bucks would be getting rich from it, so I'm guessing fairly unreliable.

 

shake zula

Footballguy
I'm going AF outright win and o69 parlay and AF +3. Both teams can score and the weather isn't very wild. AF chewing clock is concerning but Toledo will balance it with heavy passing.

AF +140 and o69 parlay 1u

AF +3 .5u

 

cosjobs

Footballguy
Doc, I couldn't respect your CFB knowledge any more, but after researching this all night, I'm on the other side.

Air Force/Toledo OVER 70.

I don't think anybody is stopping anybody in this game.

And the winds aren't as bad as previously feared. I'm seeing 17 mph.
You can see wind?
 

optionmaven

Footballguy
Bought in the over @ 67.5 on live betting before the barrage of points. Was @ 80.5 after kick return.

edit: over/under @ 90 after afa score. do i hear 100?

 
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nittanylion

Footballguy
Air Force +3, small.

Neither of these Teams can defend worth a damn, but it's a hell of a lot easier to defend a conventional passing offense that's not led by a stud QB than it is to defend an exotic rushing offense like the option. Practicing leading up to a Bowl Game is all well and good, but that ain't seeing it live on the field vs a Team that does it for a living. Offenses relying on the pass are riskier than offenses relying on the run. Less can go wrong. Also, Toledo's run defense is the worst part of their bad defense. Toledo Coach left to coach Illinois, 3rd year 0ff Coord is running the show, he's a youngster. Weather promising at game time, but sun's about to set and wind will increase as the night comes on...

...this is the 5th year in a row Air Force has played in this Bowl. It's something they're used to. Also, being played in D.C., this is a home game for any Military Academy, and the crowd is definitely partisan.

Military Academies are 25-10 ATS in all Bowl Games. Pride is a big thing for service academies, and this is the Military Bowl.

Eric Page is an absolute dynamo for Toledo. If he gets going, there's no stopping him, but I think the Air Force option wins today...just not enough to go more than small.

The BIG play today is Texas -3!!!

Texas has a better Defense than they look. High Caliber Offensive Teams worked them over pretty well (see Baylor, Oklahoma St. and Oklahoma), and that skews them statistically. Cal ain't that - they're more akin to UCLA, Mizzou and A&M, and those kind of teams, Texas handled them easily. Texas has played and beaten better competition than Cal, and all their losses are to teams much better than Cal.

There's some unpredictability surrounding the Texas QB situation: Case McCoy threw 4 picks vs Baylor which brought David Ash back into the QB mix, according to Mack Brown, who said he wouldn't announce the starter for the Bowl Game until right before game time, but folks smarter than me think this is all motivational for getting McCoy completely focused on putting that performance behind him. I think the real key is the return to the field of RB Joe Bergeron, who was banged up late in the season. Texas has a nice stable of RB's, and over the season Bergeron established himself as the lead dog behind a per carry clip of over 6.5 yards over a nice sample of about 70 carries.

You guys that play FF, remember that name: Joe Bergeron. Stud in the making, and I think he has a bit of a coming out party tonight vs Cal, provided his hammy doesn't bug him. Texas also got RB Malcolm Brown back, and he's just good enough to give Bergeron a breather to keep him fresh.

Still not as big a play as Temple, but every bit as big as La Tech. Hook 'em, HORNS!

Good Luck!!!

 

oukurt

Footballguy
I get no bigger rush than betting a CFB game where the defenses are invisible.Just hope it lives up to the billing. :popcorn:
So far this is one entertaining game. Over looks good. I knew I should have played it with you. Hated seeing that Toledo -3 show up in my inbox though. I was so high on Air Force until then.
 

bmj87

Footballguy
Enough Toledo/AF talk

CFB

1u Cal +3.5

YTD 74-61 +11.2u

CBB

1u Nova +7 ( :thumbup: Bender)

1u Mich St -6.5

1u Mizz St +10

1u Drake +1

1u Arkansas -7

1u South Florida +6

1u Iowa +4

1u So. Carolina -10.5

1u SE Mizz St -1

1u IUP-FW +11.5

YTD 86-86 -7.5u

 

TheGooRoo

Footballguy
Air Force +3, small.Neither of these Teams can defend worth a damn, but it's a hell of a lot easier to defend a conventional passing offense that's not led by a stud QB than it is to defend an exotic rushing offense like the option. Practicing leading up to a Bowl Game is all well and good, but that ain't seeing it live on the field vs a Team that does it for a living. Offenses relying on the pass are riskier than offenses relying on the run. Less can go wrong. Also, Toledo's run defense is the worst part of their bad defense. Toledo Coach left to coach Illinois, 3rd year 0ff Coord is running the show, he's a youngster. Weather promising at game time, but sun's about to set and wind will increase as the night comes on......this is the 5th year in a row Air Force has played in this Bowl. It's something they're used to. Also, being played in D.C., this is a home game for any Military Academy, and the crowd is definitely partisan.Military Academies are 25-10 ATS in all Bowl Games. Pride is a big thing for service academies, and this is the Military Bowl.Eric Page is an absolute dynamo for Toledo. If he gets going, there's no stopping him, but I think the Air Force option wins today...just not enough to go more than small.The BIG play today is Texas -3!!!Texas has a better Defense than they look. High Caliber Offensive Teams worked them over pretty well (see Baylor, Oklahoma St. and Oklahoma), and that skews them statistically. Cal ain't that - they're more akin to UCLA, Mizzou and A&M, and those kind of teams, Texas handled them easily. Texas has played and beaten better competition than Cal, and all their losses are to teams much better than Cal.There's some unpredictability surrounding the Texas QB situation: Case McCoy threw 4 picks vs Baylor which brought David Ash back into the QB mix, according to Mack Brown, who said he wouldn't announce the starter for the Bowl Game until right before game time, but folks smarter than me think this is all motivational for getting McCoy completely focused on putting that performance behind him. I think the real key is the return to the field of RB Joe Bergeron, who was banged up late in the season. Texas has a nice stable of RB's, and over the season Bergeron established himself as the lead dog behind a per carry clip of over 6.5 yards over a nice sample of about 70 carries.You guys that play FF, remember that name: Joe Bergeron. Stud in the making, and I think he has a bit of a coming out party tonight vs Cal, provided his hammy doesn't bug him. Texas also got RB Malcolm Brown back, and he's just good enough to give Bergeron a breather to keep him fresh.Still not as big a play as Temple, but every bit as big as La Tech. Hook 'em, HORNS!Good Luck!!!
If I were to tell you Ash was going to start and/or see 50% of snaps or Brown would get a minimum of 1.5:1 carries over Bergeron, would this change your bet? I'd say there's a 75% chance of one of these scenarios happening and better than 50% that they both happen. Appreciate you going out on a limb on Bergeron, but I think everything that you said about him (besides the 6.5 ypc) is crazy talk.
 

BRONG

FOR A LIMITED TIME ONLY
Enough Toledo/AF talkCFB1u Cal +3.5 YTD 74-61 +11.2uCBB1u Nova +7 ( :thumbup: Bender)1u Mich St -6.51u Mizz St +101u Drake +11u Arkansas -71u South Florida +61u Iowa +41u So. Carolina -10.51u SE Mizz St -11u IUP-FW +11.5YTD 86-86 -7.5u
Playing every one like I have a gambling problem. :hifive:
 

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