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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (4 Viewers)

So I think I found a good opportunity for a potential middle/free bet here. global sportsbook.com (non US version) has the following for number of rushers:

Pats O4.5 +160

Most other books have U5 -120ish

NYG O3 -160

Most other books have U3.5 +180ish

I think landing on the 3 or 5 number is pretty likely, any reason not to bet both sides of one of these just for the free max bet?

 
'Raider Nation said:
'Doctor Detroit said:
'Doctor Detroit said:
'Doctor Detroit said:
Early pucks tomorrow:

Pens/Bruins U 5.5 (-120) 1.5u

glllllllll
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add Wings/Oil O 5.5 (-110) and Preds (-120)
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3-0 today /gussy :banned: :excited:
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:thumbup: Thanks, you saved my ASS today!

Seemed like I had a great day... put in 20-something bets. I tally it up and I lost $300 on the day.

WITH your pucks winners. I need a break after tomorrow. Kurt killed me this month.
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Well I'll be looking for 2nd h SB plays tomorrow so it all even out. :banned:
 
'Doctor Detroit said:
'Raider Nation said:
The SB total keeps going down. Doesn't scare me off. I think both offenses will move the ball at will.
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I see 53 and a hook. What did it open at? I think 31-21 at worst here, seems like that total is worth playing over no?
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The NFL network ran a replay of the game from week 9. While I watched the first half (0-0) I said no way this game has a chance to get over. Then I watched the 44 point second half and thought over 55 was a gift.My way of thinking is the game will start a bit slow but we wont see all the turnovers and missed FG that we saw in 1H game 1. 2Q and more so 2H will open up after they feel each other out. Easy way to look at it but Eli is going to cut up a bad Patriots D. Brady will still put up points on a good Giants D.

O

That said I think the way to play it is over both team totals. The chances of one of these teams not scoring over 28 is small IMHO and I think both will.

 
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I took NE on a futures bet to win the super bowl before the Denver game at +215 and went with the under 55pts for the total. :popcorn:

I have lost the last 3 super bowls so I am definitely great fade material. I feel pretty good about the under though. :thumbup:

 
'Billy Bats said:
'DA RAIDERS said:
'Billy Bats said:
Someone stop me from taking the Atlanta Hawks really big tonight.
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I like it. I like the clip/wz under as well.
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:hifive: Hawks coming off a home blowout loss to Memphis, Sixers coming in from playing the Heat last night and the Hawks got smoked in Philly a couple weeks ago. Seems too ripe for a Hawks win. Let's do this.
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I ended up only playing the clip/wiz total. And pressed it on Utah after I heard the laker plane was delayed 3+ hours getting out of Denver. Love padding That bankroll for the superbowl.Memphis?
 
I've turned 180 on this.

I'm loaded up on Giants ML +125 for 8 units

I've got 2 units on Giants +13 as the ### end of a few teaser legs.

I might just buy out of it all and sit this out or do something wacky. If Brady really is the best QB of all time or one of the best 2, he should win this easily.

I don't have a favorite team, but I think I'm rooting for Tom Brady here. I think the Shark Pool will explode if they see Belichick and Brady hoisting another trophy and it will be fun to watch.

 
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'mquinnjr said:
'derek245583 said:
'mquinnjr said:
UFC tonight, anybody else in to go (whatever is somewhat small bets for you) on all the dogs throughout the card? I don't know the UFC very well, makes it fun for me.
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Betting on those fights is intense...It can end at any moment.Unlike a football over, you die a slow death of NIU kickers shanking fg's and WR's dropping passes.
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Oh I know, I love it, they're a great time. I bet small on them, so like 0.1U a match for each fight on the card, so about 10 fights. Playing the dogs, if 2 or 3 win you break even, and I find it makes it alot more fun rooting for the underdog. Didn't work out too well for me with Lesnar last time, but we move on. Fun nonetheless.
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:bag: Well, teased the SB to Pats +4.5 and U61.5 @ -120. I'll hope that works out a bit better than last night's 1-8 effort.
 
I have the following:

NYG ML +125

NYG +3 -115

NYG +9/O47.5

Eli Manning to throw 3rd Quarter TD +150

Eli Manning to throw 4th Quarter TD -115

Manningham to score 1st TD +1500

Gatorade to be clear +160

2nd half total points -1/2 -120

Taking the Giants to Kickoff is becoming very tempting at +235. What if the NYG wins the toss? I can see them deferring. NE has deferred 30 straight times, the giants have deferred 2 out of the last 3 times. http://espn.go.com/blog/statsinfo/post/_/id/37975/coin-flip-easy-choice-for-patriots-not-giants I just had another final thought on this. Gronk's ankle is going to be tough to get lose again after a 31 minute halftime. NE may want to maximize possessions before his ankle tightens up and will surprisingly want the ball to start the game.

Added: NYG to kickoff +235

 
Heading out for the annual Super Bowl poker game. Here's my final card:

NYG +3 -105 4U

NYG +125 2U

UN 55.5 2U

NYG O26 -115 2U

NE U29 -115 2U

NYG +9/UN 61.5 2U

Eli MVP +300 1U

# of Pats w/rush att. U5 -120 1U

A.Hernandez O5.5 rec. -115 1U

A.Hernandez O66.5 rec. yds. -115 1U

Gronk no TD +130 1U

Gronk U5.5 rec. +115 1U

Gronk U79.5 rec. yds. -115 1U

OchoCinco yes rec. +105 1U

GL fellas. Should be a great game. :banned:

 
'lumpy19 said:
'Tiger Fan said:
any idea on which way this thing will move closer to game time?
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I can't imagine the amount of money it would take at this point to move this line
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I completely agreed...until I woke up about a half-hour ago and logged in to my offshore to find it had gone from +3, -125 to +2.5, -110......and as I composed this post, I went back and double checked, and Giants are now +2.5, -105, so as soon as the Pats became less than a FG favorite, the balance started to shift the Pats way...and that's fine with me. Would love to see that keep up.

...and the O/E had dropped from 55 to 53.5, which is ruining a great parlay opportunity betting Giants and U, if this thing would have moved up into the upper 50's...

My feel for this hasn't changed at all: Giants are going to win outright, and in the process do a fair job of holding down the Pats statistically in the process.

I'm not much of a props guy, but I do play TT on occasion, and I'm really starting to like Pats Under 28.5...

People have a misconception about this Pats Team that's based on Pats teams of the past, and the phenomenon of Rob Gronkowski, I think. First of all, the Pats aren't much of a scoring machine when they are playing Teams which, from a statistical analysis standpoint, are above average or better. Also, when playing the same Teams, while they might give up a lot of yardage, they don't give up a hell of a lot of points either.

Read this:

"These two teams met back in week nine and the Giants scored late in that game to defeat the Patriots 24-20. Ironically that week nine loss to the Giants was the Patriots last loss this year. NE turned the ball over four times to just twice for the Giants. The game was tied 0-0 at halftime and both teams combined to score 44 points in the second half, including 21 points in the last four minutes of the game. It’s important to note the Giants played that game without RB Ahmad Bradshaw, WR Hakeem Nicks and C David Baas. The Patriots were pretty healthy, including having Chung and Spikes in the lineup. Both teams will play this game without one key player from that game – LT Will Beatty for the Giants and DL Andre Carter for the Pats.

Injuries have hurt both of these teams this year. In fact the Giants have really only been healthy since the playoffs started. In every other game this year they have either been missing a key offensive or defensive player. The Patriots have been relatively healthy on offense this year but were missing key defensive players for much of the second half of the season and a few games early in the season as well.

There has been a lot of talk about the Patriots defense this year but a few things have gone unnoticed during the course of the season. First, NE has only allowed more than 27 points once this year and that was against Buffalo. In that game where they allowed 34 points, Buffalo scored one touchdown on an interception return and another interception set up another score for Buffalo. Also, when I look at NE games where Patrick Chung and Brandon Spikes plays (all games except wks 1, 3 and 10-16), NE allowed just 20 points per game against teams averaging 23 points and allowed 5.7yppl against teams averaging 5.6yppl so their defense was about average to above average in points allowed. The Giants, on the other hand, have not allowed more than 20 points in their last five games so the defenses have played pretty well this year when both teams are healthy. And, for the Giants, that includes allowing just 20 points at Green Bay and holding the Packers to just 4.8 yards per pass in that game and 5.3 yards per play, which were well below their season averages. Turnovers contributed to that but the yards per play were also very low for a GB offense.

The Pats have played a soft schedule this year, and pounded a lot of sorry Teams. When the competition got tougher within it, they did poorly. NE has only played three teams with winning records this year and they are 1-2 SU in those games, including their win over Baltimore which they were out played in. NE played one other team, which at the time of the game, had a good defense and an explosive offense and that was Dallas. In those four games NE played, they defeated Dallas 20-16, lost at Pittsburgh 17-25, lost at home to the Giants 20-24 and defeated Baltimore 23-20. They haven’t scored more than 23 points against the best competition they have faced this year. They also didn’t allow more than 25 points in those games as well. Ironically, the Dallas, Pit and NYG games came in successive weeks and NE was relatively healthy in those games.

At +3.5, there was tremendous value on the Giants. At +3, there is excellent value on the Giants and anything less than +3 gives one average value on the Giants. The numbers, no matter how you slice them, point towards a Giants straight up victory. They have already defeated the Patriots on their home field and were playing that game without three of their best players on offense. NE has struggled against the few good teams they have played this year and the Giants have beaten two of the three best teams in the NFC on the road during the playoffs. Everything up to this point leans me to the Giants and NE will probably have Gronkowski at tight end but I seriously doubt he will give NE the same advantage he has during the course of the season and that will be a big loss if he can’t produce like he has.

The Patriots have only allowed more than 27 points once this year and also hasn’t scored more than 23 points against a good team this year. The total on the SB before the playoffs began was around 53 and that was assuming we would see a NE against NO/GB type match-up. As we know, NO and GB are both gone but yet this total is now priced higher than the original number prior to the playoffs. And, remember, this years score was 24-20 and the previous SB was 17-14."

...

So, I'm big, bigger, biggest on the Giants:

+3.5 for 5u, -145

+3.0 for 4u, -125

ML for 3u, +125

...and considering buying more throughout the day.

As long as the Giants are giving points, any points, I think they're an absolutely fantastic bet...

Good Luck, and thanks to everyone who contributed to what's been an great and profitable NFL Season!

 
Interesting one here. If the Pats hold the Giants to 10 or less at the half, this could be a pretty good bet.

Team to Record Most Points

Giants 1st Half Points - +15.5 (-115)

Patriots Full Game Points - -15.5 (-115)

 
I put 4u on NYG when it opened at +3.5

If it dropped to 2.5, I'd have to throw a couple units to hedge/middle.

Otherwise I am considering a NYG ML parlay with the under, but will probably wait until close to kickoff, since the o/u tends to rise pretty well near gametime

 
'nittanylion said:
ohai, bmj! Hoopshoopshoops???!!!
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Sorry, still in Vegas and haven't had time to post plays ... no hoops today, but i have 35u on the Super BowlGiants bigUnder biggerManningham o10.5 1st rec bigBradshaw longest rec o11.5 bigBallard o8.5 1st rec big1h under, Patriots TT u28.5Plus 1000 others
 
Here is a list of all my crap for the day

- Fading Gronk -

Gronk U74.5 yards -125

Gronk U80.5 yards -130

Gronk receptions U6 -130

Gronk longest U21.5 yards -120

Gronk longest U25.5 yards -125

Gronk 1st reception U13.5 yards -135

Gronk no 1st half TD -220

Gronk no TD +120

Nicks vs. Gronk -5.5 yards -140

Nicks vs. Gronk +1.5 yards -135

Cruz vs. Gronk receptions -135

Cruz vs. Gronk -6.5 yards -115

Manningham vs. Gronk +35.5 yards -120

I think I may have went a little overboard :)

Jacobs rush attempts U8.5

Beckum O9.5 rec yards

Manning O34.5 pass attempts

DJ Ware U17.5 rush + rec

DJ Ware U1.5 receptions -175

DJ Ware U10.5 rushing

Nicks 1st TD +1500

Bradshaw 1st TD +1700

Patriots U29.5 points -125

Hernandez U3 carries

Hernandez U14.5 rushing

Gostowski O1.5 FGs

Clarkson U97 seconds -125

Clarkson O95 seconds +142

Good Luck today everyone!

 
Just going to put this out there. Lots of mentions about the first game, but no mentions about how well the patriots have done the second time they play a Team the second time around.

The Giants may be the better all around team, but I would be suprised if the patriots don't have a good to great game plan.

 
'The Ref said:
Just going to put this out there. Lots of mentions about the first game, but no mentions about how well the patriots have done the second time they play a Team the second time around.The Giants may be the better all around team, but I would be suprised if the patriots don't have a good to great game plan.
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That kinda' went out the window with the last Super Bowl.
 
If any of you want some extra action on Pats, let me know. Unreal action on Giants. Heaviest we have been on a side in a Super Bowl since I have worked this book. Just email me if interested.

 
'oukurt said:
If any of you want some extra action on Pats, let me know. Unreal action on Giants. Heaviest we have been on a side in a Super Bowl since I have worked this book. Just email me if interested.
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I'm loading up more on Giants the more I drink. You guys going to move the juice? I would
 
'John Bender said:
'oukurt said:
If any of you want some extra action on Pats, let me know. Unreal action on Giants. Heaviest we have been on a side in a Super Bowl since I have worked this book. Just email me if interested.
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I'm loading up more on Giants the more I drink. You guys going to move the juice? I would
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Well I wish we could. Only downside to moving the book online was not being able to adjust the lines. That is out of our control. Not sure who they scrape lines from but our line needs to be at Pats -2.5 three days ago.
 
'oukurt said:
'John Bender said:
'oukurt said:
If any of you want some extra action on Pats, let me know. Unreal action on Giants. Heaviest we have been on a side in a Super Bowl since I have worked this book. Just email me if interested.
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I'm loading up more on Giants the more I drink. You guys going to move the juice? I would
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Well I wish we could. Only downside to moving the book online was not being able to adjust the lines. That is out of our control. Not sure who they scrape lines from but our line needs to be at Pats -2.5 three days ago.
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Agreed.
 
Any ochocino props anywhere?

I almost wonder if Belichick is diabolocial enough to basically shut him down all year. The Giants don't game plan for him at all and Bill keeps him on the field all game and he goes off. Seriously been thinking about this a lot and I don't think it's crazy

 
Straight Wager 02/05/12 14:32 ET

bet 3u to win 2.3 u Result: Pending

Wes Welker - Total Receiving Yards - Must Play (No Receptions - Under is Winner)

Receiving Yards

Receiving Yards 02/05/12(18:30 ET)

Over 81.5 (-130)

2) BET ID=376030225

Straight Wager 02/05/12 14:31 ET

bet 2.3u to win 1.4 Result: Pending

Victor Cruz - Total Receptions - Must Play (No Receptions - Under is Winner)

Receptions

Receptions 02/05/12(18:30 ET)

Over 5.5 (-165)

3) BET ID=376030064

Straight Wager 02/05/12 14:30 ET

bet 2u to win 2.4u Result: Pending

Victor Cruz - Will he Score a Touchdown - Must Play

Yes

No 02/05/12(18:30 ET)

Yes +120

4) BET ID=376029757

6.5 Point Teaser (2 Teams) 02/05/12 14:29 ET

bet 3.5u to win 2.92u Result: Pending

Giants(NewYork)

Patriots(NewEngland) 02/05/12(18:35 ET)

Patriots(NewEngland) +3.5 (-105)

Giants(NewYork)

Patriots(NewEngland) 02/05/12(18:35 ET)

Over 47

 


FIRST TEAM TO KICKOFF WILL BE (OPENING KICKOFF)

NYG +250

NE -300

If we assume Bellichik will defer receiving a kickoff to the second half and the NYG will receive if given the choice, -300 seems fair for an apparent lock.

And if we can make that assumption there are a ton of related bets that offer value- if we can assume NY will get the ball first... but unsure if I can make that leap or not.

I know BB loves to score in bunches- so he almost always defers, hoping to score last in the first half and get the ball and score again opening the second half. I do not see why he would abandon that philosophy now.

 
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